Boston @ Angels Series

[Trueblue]

Before I start, i would like to get out of the way that i am an angels fan. I am however also an A's fan. In my eyes, if I like the style of a team and the tenacity of the athletes, I will not discriminate based on rivalries and other petty things..

That being said, boston has taken 8/9 games from the Angels the last 9 post season matchups. I was at the point of just expecting to lose whenever boston was the matchup. I dont know if any of you notices this year, but it is factual that the angels played with fury when they faced boston this year. With vladi, figgi, and other key players injured during the post season, i never expected LAA to win the series. But i also never expected to get swept. It made me wonder when they were going to get really angry and attempt to lay a beatdown. This is the year folks.

Angels lineup will look something like this, in no specific order

Chone Figgins
Erik Aybar
Garret Anderson
Vladimir Guerrero
Mark Texeria
Torii Hunter
Howie Kendrick
Mike Napoli
Utility

That is a pretty solid crew and better yet, a great mix of switch hitters and lhb/rhb. While they are the weakest against LHP on the road, they are capable to beat any pitcher on any day. Last year, they had to play small ball to get to you. This year, they have REAL players protecting vladi. Also, Hunter, Tex, and Napoli are weapons that werent there last year. Sciosa has been resting almost everyone on the team. Vladi has had a shit load of games off. Everyone is HEALTHY. That is something they havent had since 2002.

The bullpen. Where do i start. First and foremost, I dont like Franky. I think he is over-rated. Daren Oliver, Shields, and Arredondo have stepped up in a major way. I dont care what game or matchup you take. Angels will always have the BP advantage.

I'm not going to go into the sox lineup right now. They are a sub .500 team on the road. They can't win with consistency and guys like youk carried the team...and he has never really shined in the post season. Neither ahs Bay. They are a really good team....Angels are a complete team.

I got the -125 price tag. I wanted even money, but given the homefield advantage and scathed pride from the last 2 years, i dont see how they can lose this series and still be dignified. People have been talking about this series the entire YEAR. It's now or never, and they know it the best. If I lose, that's fine. I will jot down my shortcomings and miscalcs and apply it to next season. I just think this is a motivated team with a penant vendetta to be settled.

Angels -125 series - Huge fuckin bet.

will add to this writeup tomorrow, short on time.

 

[cogenman]

GL trueblue.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

BOL, trueblue :shake:

Heading into the series, there are hardly any advantages i can give the bosox over the halos...going piece by piece, or by various facets of the game...other than experience.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I see the Angels winning this series 3-1, but 3-0 wouldn't suprise me. 3-2 would suprise me, and a Boston win of any kind would shock me. I believe the Angels exorcised any & all recent Red Sox p.s. voodoo hoodoo out of their psychology with their regular season results.

With that out of the way, I see a case of deja vu taking place here. And it goes something like this...


2004: the Red Sox won the WS while the White Sox, playing good baseball, were on course for a p.s. spot until injuries to Ordonez & the Big Skirt short circuited their efforts.

2005: the Red Sox - as a weaker version of their team the previous season (missing noticably Pedro Martinez, Keith Foulke & Orlando Cabrera from their 04 WS team, amongst others) - met a healthier & more successful White Sox team from the season before in the divisional round of the playoffs, with the latter team having HFA.
The W.Sox murdered the R.Sox 3-0, outscoring them by 24 runs to 9.


Fast forward a couple of seasons...


2007: the Red Sox won the WS while the LA Angels were one of their victims along the way: The Angels carried injuries to Vladimir Guerrero, Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews Jr. and John Lackey into the series which short circuited their ability to be competitive with the Red Sox. In the current words of manager Mike Scoscia: “I don’t think there is any doubt that we’re a deeper club right now … Last year [2007] against Boston we were a skeleton club [due to injuries & lack of natural depth].”

2008: the Red Sox - as a weaker version of their team the previous season (missing noticably Curt Schilling & Manny Ramirez, & carrying injuries to Mike Lowell, JD Drew & Josh Beckett that weren't present in 07) - meet a healthier & more successful Angels team from the season before in the divisional round of the playoffs, with the latter team having HFA.

And the kicker for the eerie similarities going on here?...

2005: Boston at 94-67 SU was the WC winner
2008: Boston at 95-67 SU is the WC winner

2005: CWS at 98-63 SU was a division winner
2008: LAA at 100-63 SU is a division winner

...identical loss columns.

I'm preparing to see the Red Sox get all but murdered.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

opcorn:

Mike Scioscia says pitching is Boston's heartbeat

Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times​

Angels manager says that's the key to Red Sox success this year.


By Kevin Baxter, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
September 30, 2008

When you think of the Boston Red Sox, it's hard not to focus on all the ways their offense can beat you.

They were second in the American League in hitting and scoring this season, have two of the league's top six hitters in Dustin Pedroia (.326) and Kevin Youkilis (.312), the league's stolen base leader in Jacoby Ellsbury (50) and a designated hitter in David Ortiz (89 runs batted in and 74 runs), who produced a run once every three at-bats.

But Angels Manager Mike Scioscia, who lost six consecutive playoff games to the Red Sox, isn't making that mistake. Pitching, Scioscia insists, has been the real key to Boston's success this summer.

"If you look at their starting rotation and you look at their ability to close out and hold leads, that's the real heartbeat of that club," he said. "They've got some guys throwing the ball very well in their rotation. They've got a premier closer. And they've been holding leads."

If that's true, then the heartbeat of Red Sox Nation probably skipped a bit when Josh Beckett was scratched from Wednesday's opener of the AL division series against the Angels in Anaheim because of a strained muscle in his side.

Beckett, a former World Series most valuable player with the Florida Marlins, is one of the top money pitchers in baseball with a 6-2 record and 1.73 earned-run average in the postseason, including 2-0 and 0.56 marks in the division series. Plus Beckett has never played for a team that has lost a playoff series.

However, his absence, at least for the two games in Anaheim, could actually work to Boston's favor because the Red Sox will now be forced to use 18-game winner Daisuke Matsuzaka in Game 2 on the road, where he is 9-0 with a 2.37 ERA, holding opponents to a .178 average in 13 starts. Left-hander Jon Lester, a 16-game winner, will start Wednesday against the Angels, who had the best regular-season record in the AL against lefties.

Sore Sox
Beckett may not be the only World Series MVP missing from the Red Sox lineup Wednesday.

Mike Lowell, who has a partially torn labrum in his right hip, has appeared in only 12 games since Aug. 13 and looked bad in an aborted attempt to play Friday against the New York Yankees.

But Lowell, who hit .274 with 17 homers in 113 games, was pleased with how he felt after taking batting practice Monday and said he'll test the hip again today by taking ground balls at third base.

Outfielder J.D. Drew, a former Dodger, has also been mostly sidelined since mid-August, but he hit well in practice Monday and is likely to play.

Yet unlike years past, when much of the Red Sox attack was centered on Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, Scioscia said the Boston offense now is more balanced and could withstand the loss of Drew, Lowell or both.

"They're running a lot more," Scioscia said of the Red Sox, who had three players, including MVP candidate Pedroia, steal 20 or more bases. "They've got guys that can drive the ball, that get on base as well as anybody in baseball.

"So there's a lot of things that are positive for them right now. And there's a lot of guys that are playing well. It will be a challenge."

Careful what you wish for
By finishing with the best record in baseball at 100-62, the Angels have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs -- which might not be much of an advantage.

Four teams in the AL won more often at home than the Angels, who also have lost their last four postseason games in Anaheim, going 2-7 there since winning Game 7 of the World Series in 2002. Still, given how the league's other playoff teams have done in their ballparks, the Angels are happy to be opening here.

"It couldn't hurt," said John Lackey, who will start Game 1 for the Angels.

"We've obviously played pretty well on the road too this year," he added. "But it's always nice to get the start at home."

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Confusing matters for Boston is the health of three key players, third baseman Mike Lowell, outfielder J.D. Drew and pitcher Josh Beckett.

Lowell, bothered by a torn labrum in his right hip that will require off-season surgery, took more than two dozen easy grounders at third Tuesday afternoon, and though he appeared to be having trouble moving, Manager Terry Francona was pleased with the workout.

"I actually thought Mikey Lowell looked really good," Francona said.

Drew, limited to two games since Aug. 17 because of a bad back, had a good workout Tuesday for the second consecutive day and declared himself ready.

And Beckett, who was scratched from tonight's series opener because of a strained muscle in his right side, threw off flat ground Tuesday, will throw again today and is scheduled for a bullpen session Thursday.

He is penciled in to start Game 3 Sunday at Fenway Park in Boston.

kevin.baxter, latimes.com

opcorn:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

The Red Sox have won nine straight playoff games against the Angels dating to 1986. The Angels were 8-1 against the Red Sox this season. Which is more relevant in the division series? Here's a look at the issues and matchups when the Angels play the Red Sox:

Numbers game
The Angels had the best record (100-62) this season, but that lofty status hasn't meant much to teams in the past.

Only twice since the advent of division series play in 1995 has the team with baseball's best record won the World Series, the 2007 Red Sox and the 1998 Yankees.

The Angels think that statistic is irrelevant, just like the Red Sox think their 1-8 record against the Angels this season won't be a factor, just like the Angels think their two division series sweeps at the hands of the Red Sox in 2004 and 2007 and their 4-12 record in the playoffs since winning the 2002 World Series won't have a bearing.


"You have to throw all that stuff out the window," Boston first baseman Kevin Youkilis said. "It's like when St. Louis (83-78) won the World Series in 2006 with the least amount of wins. Sometimes the team that wins 100 games doesn't win the World Series."

Said Angels center fielder Torii Hunter: "What you do in the regular season means nothing."

Run, Forrest, run
The Red Sox finished third in the league with 120 stolen bases and were caught 35 times, a 77% success rate. Jacoby Ellsbury led the league with 50 stolen bases, and Dustin Pedroia and Coco Crisp swiped 20 each.

Countering Boston's running attack will be Angels catchers Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis, who combined to throw out only 25 of 109 base-stealers this season.

"They absolutely run more, and they have a high success rate," Angels Manager Mike Scioscia said. "And they do it at times that are important to the outcome of the game."

Expect Angels pitchers to vary their times in the stretch and to use an occasional slide-step to the plate.

"There are some things we'll put in place to help control the running game," Scioscia said, "but not to the point where you distract the pitcher from making a pitch."

The ice pack is on the other foot
Last year, it was the Angels who were ravaged by injuries during a division series in which they were swept by the Red Sox.

Gary Matthews Jr. sat out the series because of a knee injury, Vladimir Guerrero was slowed by bad knees and a triceps injury, Garret Anderson could barely see out of his right eye because of an infection, and Casey Kotchman spent Game 3 in the hospital because of food poisoning.

This year, the Red Sox are hurting, with Mike Lowell (hip), J.D. Drew (back) and ace Josh Beckett (oblique) battling injuries and shortstop Julio Lugo out because of a torn quadriceps.

"Last year, Vladdy was hurt, G.A., by the end of the series, looked like Muhammad Ali at the end of the Joe Frazier fight, it's a completely . . . it's the same team, but with different personnel," Matthews said. "We're deeper, with good health."

Back to basics
The Red Sox spent almost the entire first hour of a two-hour workout Tuesday working on pitchers fielding practice, bunt defense and infield defense.

The Angels may have added significant power with their July 29 acquisition of Mark Teixeira, but Boston Manager Terry Francona has faced Scioscia enough to know what his teams do best.

"They play an aggressive style of baseball, and if you're not prepared for it, they can run you into problems," Francona said.

No comparison
Scioscia won two World Series rings as a Dodgers catcher and one as an Angels manager, and there was no question which he cherishes most.

"As far as winning as a manager or a player, that's a no-brainer," Scioscia said. "It's as a player.


"When you're in your backyard playing with your friends or your brother and you're out there making up those games, you're the guy who's in the batter's box in the bottom of the ninth inning with two outs and hits a grand slam, not the manager who makes the pitching change that hopefully wins the game."

Win shares
Lost in all the talk about how the Angels and Red Sox thump the ball is the fact that the team's starting pitchers finished one-two in the major leagues in victories, with the Angels getting 73 wins from their rotation, two more than the Red Sox got from theirs, according to STATS LLC.

And if Beckett is able to pitch Game 3 for the Red Sox, the series will feature three of the league's four top winners over the last two seasons in Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka (33 wins) and Beckett (32) and Angels' starter John Lackey (31). Only Toronto's Roy Halladay (36) has more.

Last word
Francona, when asked if he thought Guerrero, a notorious bad-ball hitter, was no longer the power threat he once was:

"We certainly respect his ability to do damage. I've said it numerous times, there's not a pitch you throw that Vlad doesn't think he can hit. You can throw it off his shoe tops, you can throw it head high, and he can leave the ballpark on any swing.

"When you talk about missing off the plate with him, you better miss off because he's swinging that thing."

opcorn:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

ALDS - Red Sox versus Angels

The following table compares the 2008 seasons of the Red Sox and Angels, opponents in the ALDS.

<TABLE border=1><CAPTION>AL Ranks</CAPTION><TBODY><TR><TH>2008</TH><TH>Red Sox</TH><TH>Angels</TH></TR><TR><TD>Runs/Game</TD><TD align=right>5.22 (3rd)</TD><TD align=right>4.72 (10th)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Batting Avg.</TD><TD align=right>.280 (2nd)</TD><TD align=right>.268 (7th)</TD></TR><TR><TD>On-Base Average</TD><TD align=right>.358 (1st)</TD><TD align=right>.330 (11th)</TD></TR><TR><TD>/Slugging Pct.</TD><TD align=right>.447 (3rd)</TD><TD align=right>.413 (9th)</TD></TR><TR><TD>ERA</TD><TD align=right>4.01 (4th)</TD><TD align=right>3.99 (3rd)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Strikeouts/9 IP</TD><TD align=right>7.4 (1st)</TD><TD align=right>6.9 (6th)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Walks/9 IP</TD><TD align=right>3.4 (9th)</TD><TD align=right>2.8 (3rd)</TD></TR><TR><TD>HR/200 IP</TD><TD align=right>20.3 (4th)</TD><TD align=right>22.0 (7th)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Looking at the above numbers, one might believe that the Red Sox, not the Angels, posted the best record in the American League. Boston outscored their opponents by 151 runs, the best in the AL, while the Angels came in at +68, sixth in the league. That 68 run difference is the smallest ever for a team that won 100 games (New York Yankees, 2004, +89). Not surprisingly, the Angels held the lowest margin of victory (average run difference in wins) in the majors, +2.83 runs per win. That was tied with San Francisco, with Houston, Seattle and Washington rounding out the bottom five. In other words, teams that post a low margin of victory tend to be among the worst teams in the majors.

Near the top of the chart? The Boston Red Sox at +3.96 runs per win. The Red Sox hammer their opponents when they win. Only the Twins, at +4.00 did better. Fans of Detroit and Atlanta should note both teams made the top five. Their horrible records in one-run games pulled them down. Note Boston won 22 of 45 one-run games while the Angels took home victories in 31 of 52 contests.

The small margin of victory caused the Angels to acquire Mark Teixeira. With Mark improving the offense a bit, the average margin of victory increased to 3.11.

The Red Sox are great on both sides of the ball. The Angels offense and defense matched more often, however as LAnaheim scored just enough to win. This should mean Boston is the better team, but the Angels dominated the season series:

<TABLE border=1><CAPTION>Head to Head</CAPTION><TBODY><TR><TH>2008</TH><TH>Red Sox</TH><TH>Angels</TH></TR><TR><TD>Wins</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>8</TD></TR><TR><TD>Runs/Game</TD><TD align=right>3.67</TD><TD align=right>6.78</TD></TR><TR><TD>Walks</TD><TD align=right>30</TD><TD align=right>29</TD></TR><TR><TD>Home Runs</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>15</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

They only faced Matsuzaka and Lester once each during the regular season, but hit both very well. This is the secret of the Scioscia teams; put the ball in play and see what happens. The Red Sox staff, the best staff at striking out batters in the AL, managed to strike out just 5.9 Angels per nine innings. That put more balls in play that usual against Boston, and those balls found holes in the defense. The Angels offensive philosophy counteracts a Boston defensive strength.

I have no doubt Boston is the better team. Player the 2008 season millions of times, and the Red Sox would win more games the the Angels in the great majority of those seasons. The Angels, however, fit their pieces of offense and defense together well. For example the Angels exceeded their Runs Created prediction by 0.1 runs, while the Red Sox fell 0.3 short of theirs. This is a difficult series to call, but I give the Angels the edge, with a 55% chance of LAnaheim going on to the ALCS.

Red Sox batters vs. Angels, 2008.
Angels batters vs. Red Sox, 2008.
Red Sox pitchers vs. Angels, 2008.
Angels pitchers vs. Red Sox, 2008.

 

[Zeke]

I have no doubt Boston is the better team.

wwWHAT? I respect the time you put into baseball, far more that I do for shit sure. As a half-assed fan of the Sox I watched them play like horseshit coming down the stretch & horseshit against LAA all season (swept at home). They had a chance to pass TB at home but conversely lost ground. Then when they were still in the fight for first, TB was doing all they could to blow the lead but low & behold the Sox tried a bit harder with a 19-8 drubbing from the Yanks in Fenway. I had a number in my head of around -160 LAA on this series. At -130 or whatever my local gives me, I can't afford to not take the Halos.

 

[Satyr]

BC, fantastic post and something I would never have found myself, but don't you think that if Atlanta and Detroit, two horrid teams, are in the top 5 in that category, that the stat itself is by far outweighed by some other parameters?

Basically this means that one shouldn't lay 1.5 runs with Anaheim since they have a ton of one run games, especially at home where that edge is even smaller considering:

a) a team in the lead does not bat in the 9th
b) the Angels are one of the rare teams that do not have large home/road discrepancies as far as BAA, OBP and other offensive stats are concerned, yet the price will reflect them playing at home.


As far as the Red Sox are concerned, I have several concerns.

First and foremost, the Angels won season series 8:1. That's eight to one. A team just doesn't lie down and fall flat because they don't care at that point, since:

a) the Red Sox knew the Angels were going to lead their division which makes them AL rivals, despite the fact the Angels are hung up on that rivalry much more considering the Red Sox have owned them in postseason. Still, there are zero doubts that the Red Sox have cared for those games and wanted to win. Eight losses in nine games raises eyebrows.

b) the Red Sox did not lead their division during all of those games and in most cases they weren't even sure they'd make the postseason (if there's a team that could lay down and fall flat it's the Angels, who basically clinched berth months ago)


If you analyze the lineup, the Angels do have a small run difference at 68, but they are a typical small ball team relying on fundamentals. Not much pop in that lineup we all know that, but you give me that team over a team with a lot of pop (i.e. Detroit or Yankees). A team that is clutch and has the ability to manufacture runs.

The Red Sox are a monster team as well, but I am puzzled why no one is questioning their post season success now that Manny Ramirez is gone (no more Manny/Big Papi punch). With Lowell and Drew banged up and Jason Bay playing his first postseason ever, one may argue this team is weaker than during their WS prowess in 2007.

I do think these teams are pretty evenly matched and I feel bad that one of these teams will have to sit at home and watch the remainder of the playoffs on TV, but I do believe the Angels have a slight edge in this one and could be backed when the spot is right which I think is now, since Lackey is a big game pitcher and no matter how much I love Jon Lester, and he is a true hero of this game, he has had his big moment last year already, and he has regressed on the road in the last month or so, as 3 out of last 4 of his road starts were mediocre to horrid.

He hasn't fared well against Anaheim in his career either and that may be an issue.

 

[Master P]

thank you very much betcrimes, appreciate the work a lot sir :bow:


:cheers:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Zeke - I didnt write that article, it was cut & paste. My thoughts come in my own, original, initial post in this thread....

I see the Angels winning this series 3-1, but 3-0 wouldn't suprise me. 3-2 would suprise me, and a Boston win of any kind would shock me. I believe the Angels exorcised any & all recent Red Sox p.s. voodoo hoodoo out of their psychology with their regular season results.

 

[Trueblue]

nice thoughts bc.. dont think i need to add anymore, but one thing is certain. Angels can win a 9-12 game or a 0-1 game. They have all the tools necessary and Weaver/Garland as strong BP options. These two guys could be #2 pitchers on many mlb teams...

 

[CapTwo]

love it true.... my biggest wager of the postseason so far too!

lets cash this bitch, glad to see you on the same side

 

[SportsNut]

Shit , I missed this thread . Great work fellas .

I didnt really get into this indepth at all but my opinion is until LAA beats Boston in the playoffs then Boston is the team that has the slight egde. On paper these teams look dead even to me . Lackey entered as a question mark and to some degree so is Josh Beckett . I'll take Beckett , Lester and Dice K over just about every trio icluding Lackey ,Santana and Saunders .

The one thing that stats cant relate is that LAA is a winner though . When they dont hit they outpitch there opponents and when they struggle pitching they seem to be able to outhit there opponents .....Boston since trading Manny simply feasted on very weak opposing SP and nothing more IMO . However in a playoff series there SP is very good ....

BOL all

 

[counselor]

...but one thing is certain. Angels can win a 9-12 game or a 0-1 game...but not 2-1 game...

Fixed it for yas

:tiphat:

 

[Throwback420]

 

[Trueblue]

OUCH. That was a horrible display of offense...hopefully some inspired ball is played next few, or its obviously overs..

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Here's a stat to cheer you up - 18 of 56 teams (32%) to go down 0-1 in this round have comeback to win the series.

But, while just 4 of 28 teams to lose NL division series openers have come back to win series, it’s been an even 14-14 split in the AL, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Boston tied a major league record for consecutive postseason wins over the same opponent, a mark Oakland set against the Red Sox from 1988-03.

 

[CapTwo]

at least we can still get drunk

its cheaper then pissing money away on horrible performances like this one

1 run game going into the 9th and soscia leaves in shields? WHY. thought he was just coming in solely to face papi and then end the inning, to bring k-rod in in the 9th

nope. soscia wants to "save him". wtf are you saving him for. do they know how hard its going to be to beat beckett and lester (who is even filthier at home) at fenway?? wtf

im gonna try to hedge off LA and lose some money, if i get the opportunity... althoguh i dont think the books are gonna let us off that easy. anything -130 or less i think id just hedge altogether... but itll prolly be more pricier then that.

normally i would let it ride, but in a 5 game series, this is a huge game, and it really defined how both teams were going to go about this series

soscia outmanaged by francona.... angels free swinging bats/no game plan... boston methodical small ball/championship play.

was just a frustrating one to watch. especially in the 8th... we def had a shot of stealing this one true and it slipped through our fingers

 

[Trueblue]

+175 for series for LAA... might bite..

 

[SportsNut]

I wouldnt weigh yesterday much . Lester gets no credit really . Of all the AL pitchers I saw in 2008 I would say he impressed me the most . His velocity wasnt even good last nite from the parts I saw . Dont recall all of the times I watched him but remember the 1st thing that stood out was his velocity . Dont recall many starts where he wasnt consistently throwing 92-94MPH ...

Actually wish I took a stab at Boston to win the AL pennant and WS ....not that they are gonna win this series but just from a value standpoint .....

 

[Trueblue]

after that grand slam and looking at these other teams, dont think angels have the concentration that they should... amazing..

 

[CapTwo]

any play/thoughts on santana tonight? leaning LAA pretty hard.... unfortunatley i think this may be the only one theyll win this series.

or just staying away and letting the series wager ride. GL man.. thanks

 

[ddk997]

You saw what the dodgers did...Red Sox tonight with Dice-K, not 18-3 for nothing.

 

[Satyr]

You saw what the dodgers did...Red Sox tonight with Dice-K, not 18-3 for nothing.

could be, but not because the Dodgers showed it was possible. Frankly I think this one will be a cracker, more offense from both teams.

 

[ddk997]

could be, but not because the Dodgers showed it was possible. Frankly I think this one will be a cracker, more offense from both teams.

I was also leaning towards the over, but something is preventing me from doing so with those two pitchers on the mound. Gonna need more time to think about that one

 

[tigercub]

im kinda nervous about tonights game, but hopeful the sox pull it out. im not playing the game but would lean towards the under for the first 5, i think its at 4 -105. dice k has been great on the road going 9-0 in his 13 starts with and era around a 2.40. hes only allowed 11 extra base hits in those starts, giving up 9 doubles and 2 hr's. yah he lost his only meeting vs. angels at fenway earlier this year, but he was pitching well with a 2-1 lead heading to the 6th. he had one bad inning that game and thats all it was. santana on the other hand has been significantly worse at home (5-5, 4 era) than on the road (11-2, 3 era). however he has been near unhittable his first time through lineups this year, and the sox have yet to see him in 2008. now i hope im wrong and boston puts up a 5 spot in the first inning, but as a betting man this would be my lean.

 

[Tide High]

seems like the Angels should be able ot produce some runs with their style and DicK's tendency to walk batters. can't get a feel tho

 

[Satyr]

they own them, no words man...no words.


:shake:

 

[Trueblue]

pm'd this to cap..

the angels looked liked the oakland A's last night stranding runners with juiced bases. I guess that is the difference between championship caliber and not. As mentioned in the thread, I never liked k-rod. Think he is inconsistent, puts baserunners on at a ridiculous rate and gets rattled easily. He has such a violent delivery and throws only 93-94mph too... he gives SBs at a ridiculous rate as a result. I would definitely opt to trade him and pay Texeira to stay, leaving room for a young arm like Arredondo.

Good news for next game in boston is the perception that beckett brings to the price tag of boston ML. People just believe he is the post season god and will own everyone. Although he finished up pretty good to the regular season, he had a very mediocre year. I think the angels get to him, but i cant guarantee a win. I also think that given fenway's size, saunders balls will be dangerously elevated to HR territory. Guys that have had success against the socks are usually K pitchers, not contact/fly ball pitchers like saunders...Gotta think over for the 1st 5 at least...and maybe a smidge on Angels ML. I'd like to hope like anyone else in my spot that angels can extend this series. i just think they lack the concentration. Guys like kendrick are fucking up big time.

 

[CapTwo]

new life, bro. :cheers:
http://socalsportschick.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/rally-Mouse.gif

 

[Trueblue]

pm'd this to cap..

the angels looked liked the oakland A's last night stranding runners with juiced bases. I guess that is the difference between championship caliber and not. As mentioned in the thread, I never liked k-rod. Think he is inconsistent, puts baserunners on at a ridiculous rate and gets rattled easily. He has such a violent delivery and throws only 93-94mph too... he gives SBs at a ridiculous rate as a result. I would definitely opt to trade him and pay Texeira to stay, leaving room for a young arm like Arredondo.

Good news for next game in boston is the perception that beckett brings to the price tag of boston ML. People just believe he is the post season god and will own everyone. Although he finished up pretty good to the regular season, he had a very mediocre year. I think the angels get to him, but i cant guarantee a win. I also think that given fenway's size, saunders balls will be dangerously elevated to HR territory. Guys that have had success against the socks are usually K pitchers, not contact/fly ball pitchers like saunders...Gotta think over for the 1st 5 at least...and maybe a smidge on Angels ML. I'd like to hope like anyone else in my spot that angels can extend this series. i just think they lack the concentration. Guys like kendrick are fucking up big time.

thanks cap, too bad i passed on my leans...eh, happy for them though..

 

[Satyr]

no sweep!


let's tie this baby up:cheers:

 

[CapTwo]

thanks cap, too bad i passed on my leans...eh, happy for them though..

you were pretty much spot on with the game though, damn:shake:
really couldnt have capped it any better
you even called the first 5 goin over and then settling down.... hell most important thing is series wagers are still alive

when you decide which way you lean with the total/side tomorrow, please dont hesitate to share

opcorn:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

had a couple of posters look at me sideways for my calls against Boston prior to game 3, and once again if not for Angels stupidity then game 3 itself doesn't need extra innings by a long shot.

What you have here is a Boston team not up to it's strength of last post season vs an LA team which can't stop shooting itself in the foot every game it plays.

Whoever gets through, I'm seeing neither defeat the Rays. Hopefully it's LA, so the prices are much better for said result (since HFA won't be theirs).

 

[Trueblue]

yeah, bc... im happy they survived, but i cant believe what kind of mistakes they are making... aybar letting a ball fall in the delta triangle?? Geez, they are a good defensive team and they just suck ass under pressure recently. They had so much rest before playoffs and cruised that they cant seem to turn it "ON" anymore. I'm gonna take a look at the game for tomorrow now... will post some thoughts, but gotta dig to find an advantage here..

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

they lived to fight another day... :shake:


trueblue...wouldn't have believed it, but they're playing like it's their 1st time...like their feeling the pressure.
it's evidenced by the defense, particularly in the OF. like u said, the halos have a stellar defense. just doesn't look that way now, lol.

and they're also pressing at the plate, kinda like the cubbies did.

 

[Trueblue]

Last night’s thoughts. Fuckin Franky. If there is any more compelling proof to trade this guy, we saw it all on national TV the past 2 games. Guy has no consistency in control. If hitters just sat and wait for the fastball, there would be immense success off of him. He also doesn’t have the kind of delivery that allows him to not pitch out of the stretch. I don’t care if Arredondo is a baby. He has shit that is nastier then k-rod. I am speechless about the delta triangle dropped ball last night. Don’t expect that kind of gift tonight. Sciosa is a defensive minded guy. Angels have lost concentration like this in the past at Yankees stadium but have recovered well games after….but seriously.. this game should have ended 4-1…
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
It’s evident that the angels couldn’t hit Lester worth anything last time out. Only run he gave up was unearned on defensive error. Between then and tonight, there is nothing solid to prove that the angels have changed in any shape or form to improve their hitting. Though small adjustments like slotting Rivera in instead of Mathews can help, there is only one factor that I can take into consideration: Mentality. The Halos finally believe they can win after repeatedly shitting on themselves game after game. And…it was against playoff “god” Josh Beckett. I know as well as anyone else that watches this team that they are better then what they have shown. Getting the Mouse off their chest and finally getting the win last night takes the pressure off of being humiliated for a 2^nd/3^rd straight season by <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Boston</st1lace></st1:City>. At this point, the halos have nothing to lose. I honestly look for them to play like a wounded bear tonight, as I can speak from personal experience that you tend to play more aggressive and proud when expectations are low.
<o> </o>
Remember that Lackey threw a near no-no in Fenway less then 2 months ago. I for one was not overly impressed by that performance. His K-rate was very low and it looked like <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Boston</st1lace></st1:City> was shooting themselves in the foot with bad contact. I do however like the temperature in Fenway. Cold favors Lackey’s style of pitching, for his Achilles heal has been a team called the Texas Rangers and the HR ball. Fortunately, we only have the latter tonight, as the ball will not carry as well as it did in the warm confines of <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Orange</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">County</st1laceType></st1lace>. Lackey is one of my favorite on the squad. He is a big game pitcher and a very proud ace that doesn’t lie down to adversity. Kind of reminds of that Shilling’s look when he gives up a hit and visibly glares that “give me the fucking ball” look. I think that he gets it done today. People will say things like “he’s pitched so poorly last few of the season” or “<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Texas</st1lace></st1:State> hit him hard.” All I can say is that there are some team that own certain pitchers….and that it’s hard to be at your highest competitive level after playing teams like the Mariners and A’s when W’s an L’s don’t matter. There was some concern about Lackey’s arm being tired? I really don’t buy it, as he has pitched full seasons before with no drop in velocity.. his problem is that he elevates his balls sometimes and hitters get under it. It’s concentration… there is no doubt at all that he has great stuff. Tonight’s key to victory is most likely limiting the HR.
<o> </o>
May I also remind people that Lester is in a different spot tonight. Besides that obvious that he is at home, the first time facing these guys, he faced a bunch of guys with their heads up their asses thinking the entire series was going to be a cruise. The Angels played like shit in all dimensions. No one would dare disagree with me that whatever is running through the LAA team’s head tonight, it has GOT to be different then game 1. I’m not saying Lester gets his tits lit. All I’m trying to say is that he will not throw for 0 ER’s and he has a squad of pissed off hitters coming his way.
<o> </o>
I know it may seem like a homer pick, but come on. We’ve seen this team play better. I’m not pulling something out of my ass and hoping for a miracle. I’m simply asking the Halos to play Halo ball. That means minimal defensive mistakes, moving men on base, and timely hitting. They FINALLY did that late in the innings yesterday using garbage Kendrick to bunt a man over and Aybar getting a 2 strike RBI off of Javy. I’m really praying this revitalizes their style and reminds them how they’ve won in the past. I’m on LAA ML for a moderate play.

 

[STEED]

:shake:

 

[G-Man]

Im leaning on the Halos tonight as they hit the wall a few times in this one...?

 

[Satyr]

Last night’s thoughts. Fuckin Franky. If there is any more compelling proof to trade this guy, we saw it all on national TV the past 2 games. Guy has no consistency in control. If hitters just sat and wait for the fastball, there would be immense success off of him. He also doesn’t have the kind of delivery that allows him to not pitch out of the stretch. I don’t care if Arredondo is a baby. He has shit that is nastier then k-rod. I am speechless about the delta triangle dropped ball last night. Don’t expect that kind of gift tonight. Sciosa is a defensive minded guy. Angels have lost concentration like this in the past at Yankees stadium but have recovered well games after….but seriously.. this game should have ended 4-1…
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
It’s evident that the angels couldn’t hit Lester worth anything last time out. Only run he gave up was unearned on defensive error. Between then and tonight, there is nothing solid to prove that the angels have changed in any shape or form to improve their hitting. Though small adjustments like slotting Rivera in instead of Mathews can help, there is only one factor that I can take into consideration: Mentality. The Halos finally believe they can win after repeatedly shitting on themselves game after game. And…it was against playoff “god” Josh Beckett. I know as well as anyone else that watches this team that they are better then what they have shown. Getting the Mouse off their chest and finally getting the win last night takes the pressure off of being humiliated for a 2^nd/3^rd straight season by <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Boston</st1lace></st1:City>. At this point, the halos have nothing to lose. I honestly look for them to play like a wounded bear tonight, as I can speak from personal experience that you tend to play more aggressive and proud when expectations are low.
<o> </o>
Remember that Lackey threw a near no-no in Fenway less then 2 months ago. I for one was not overly impressed by that performance. His K-rate was very low and it looked like <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Boston</st1lace></st1:City> was shooting themselves in the foot with bad contact. I do however like the temperature in Fenway. Cold favors Lackey’s style of pitching, for his Achilles heal has been a team called the Texas Rangers and the HR ball. Fortunately, we only have the latter tonight, as the ball will not carry as well as it did in the warm confines of <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Orange</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">County</st1laceType></st1lace>. Lackey is one of my favorite on the squad. He is a big game pitcher and a very proud ace that doesn’t lie down to adversity. Kind of reminds of that Shilling’s look when he gives up a hit and visibly glares that “give me the fucking ball” look. I think that he gets it done today. People will say things like “he’s pitched so poorly last few of the season” or “<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Texas</st1lace></st1:State> hit him hard.” All I can say is that there are some team that own certain pitchers….and that it’s hard to be at your highest competitive level after playing teams like the Mariners and A’s when W’s an L’s don’t matter. There was some concern about Lackey’s arm being tired? I really don’t buy it, as he has pitched full seasons before with no drop in velocity.. his problem is that he elevates his balls sometimes and hitters get under it. It’s concentration… there is no doubt at all that he has great stuff. Tonight’s key to victory is most likely limiting the HR.
<o> </o>
May I also remind people that Lester is in a different spot tonight. Besides that obvious that he is at home, the first time facing these guys, he faced a bunch of guys with their heads up their asses thinking the entire series was going to be a cruise. The Angels played like shit in all dimensions. No one would dare disagree with me that whatever is running through the LAA team’s head tonight, it has GOT to be different then game 1. I’m not saying Lester gets his tits lit. All I’m trying to say is that he will not throw for 0 ER’s and he has a squad of pissed off hitters coming his way.
<o> </o>
I know it may seem like a homer pick, but come on. We’ve seen this team play better. I’m not pulling something out of my ass and hoping for a miracle. I’m simply asking the Halos to play Halo ball. That means minimal defensive mistakes, moving men on base, and timely hitting. They FINALLY did that late in the innings yesterday using garbage Kendrick to bunt a man over and Aybar getting a 2 strike RBI off of Javy. I’m really praying this revitalizes their style and reminds them how they’ve won in the past. I’m on LAA ML for a moderate play.

superb writeup. :cheers:

 

[aplous]

If it was anyone but Lester Id be on board.....he is superb.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

The big issue tonight, as far as I see it, is that both bullpens are gassed, and that adds pressure to Lackey and Lester.

Last night the Sox didn't even deserve to be playing in extras, frankly.

The Sox' line over the past twenty innings is pretty horrid. Since the four run outburst against Santana, they owe their runs, in effect, to Drew's clutch homer and Howie Kendrick/Torii Hunter. In the last 20 innings, the Sox have scored four deserved runs. Yesterday their bats were flat-out terrible, and for the better part of Friday they coasted. But for JD Drew we'd be staring at elimination. I am not sure how YF sees the Sox as a "far superior" team, based on the performances. Last night the Sox were basically dominated.

Another Red Sox fan recognising the writing is on the wall.

Lowell is gone.
Drew & Beckett are injured
Big Papi isn't the same.
Pedroia has finally cooled off (0-13 so far this series)

 

[Trueblue]

as a note...bullpens are both gassed, but i would lean under for first 5.. no play though.

 

[Trueblue]

all i can say is that we all learned something from this series. Make sure a team has their shit straight before they enter playoffs. I knew it was a bad omen when they played the A's and K-rod fucked up with defensive errors and lost the ball under the BP heating machine.. Along with other crap that they were able to slide by with, it just bleed to death in this playoff series. That squeeze bunt by Aybar was just the icing on the cake. I am speechless, disappointed, and shocked at the utter lack of execution by a team that was favored to win it all. I'm gonna take this with a grain of salt and try to play teams that have a decent force of momentum coming into the playoffs....Truth is...Angels cruised the last 20 games....and never turned the switch back on. Now i will have to root for my 2nd favorite team in LA..

 

[Trueblue]

and....on a side note...

Sciosa made the right call. I do not blame him what so ever. That's the style he has played ever since taking the role, and i would not expect any less of a call. The fact is... almost any contact made with that pitch would have resulted in a run. I place 95% of the blame on Aybar for letting a pitch go by that he KNEW he had to make contact with. The other 5% goes to pure chance and varitek's veteran reaction. I still think Aybar is a good player, but that is the biggest fuck up of his life so far, and maybe forever. Gonna have to do a lot for me next season to earn my respect back..

 

[BetCrimes1984]

all i can say is that we all learned something from this series. Make sure a team has their shit straight before they enter playoffs. I knew it was a bad omen when they played the A's and K-rod fucked up with defensive errors and lost the ball under the BP heating machine.. Along with other crap that they were able to slide by with, it just bleed to death in this playoff series. That squeeze bunt by Aybar was just the icing on the cake. I am speechless, disappointed, and shocked at the utter lack of execution by a team that was favored to win it all. I'm gonna take this with a grain of salt and try to play teams that have a decent force of momentum coming into the playoffs....Truth is...Angels cruised the last 20 games....and never turned the switch back on. Now i will have to root for my 2nd favorite team in LA..

I think you're overselling the Angels "easy" reg season finish. Playing the World Champs who also happen to have had their number previously got in their heads, from my pov. Which isn't my saying I think this Angels team is a world beating one (if they'd bypassed the Sox I'd still be lumping for Tampa), just I don't believe their reg season end can be pointed to to explain what happened here.

 

[gsro]

and....on a side note...

Sciosa made the right call. I do not blame him what so ever. That's the style he has played ever since taking the role, and i would not expect any less of a call. The fact is... almost any contact made with that pitch would have resulted in a run. I place 95% of the blame on Aybar for letting a pitch go by that he KNEW he had to make contact with. The other 5% goes to pure chance and varitek's veteran reaction. I still think Aybar is a good player, but that is the biggest fuck up of his life so far, and maybe forever. Gonna have to do a lot for me next season to earn my respect back..

That misplay last night is definately going to play with his psyche, kind of reminds me of Mitch Williams and giving up that homerun to jumping Joe; after that, he just collapsed! Aybar goes from hero to zero in 24 hours. Hope the kid has some mental toughness....:tiphat: