Bookmaker Week 1 Lines
- Thread starter carolinablue
- Start date
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
Doc Chalk (aka CB) I need your assistance here. I need an expert in laying points, because honestly that is just about all that looks good to me in the early going right now and I hate it. This week one card is eating me up. Linesmakers have sufficiently screwed up my head. Kudos to them for fucking with me. LMAO!!
I am looking for about 2 or 3 (4 at the most) of these plays to add to Wyoming, and I want to lay the wood. I am not interested in a big card, just a quality card. Help me sort this shit out.
Choice 1) SoCar. I'm primarily a bookmaker guy although I may add some to either the Greek or 5D, but in any event it just went back up to 12 from 11.5 which and it may start trending in that general direction as people realize how depleted the Wolfpack are. Cocks have a state-of-the-art defense which should really limit NCSU. I think 4 TDs would be a possible or even likely cover, anymore than that is gravy. Trouble is, I have this mental block against them as in last year's opener I tried to lay 4 TDs and that was all they fucking scored. :down2: Also there is the whole Tom OB factor. He is a really professional coach and always get a decent effort out of his boys, especially on the LOS. How many times did he replace draft pick linemen with no names who ended up being draft picks themselves? His BC groups were very sound. Having a tough time here, but would like to take the Gamecocks.
Choice 2) Rice. Less attractive now at 3.5 than it was at 3, but still attractive relative to what I thought the line would be, in the one touchdown range. To me the fact that he passed on Willis is a good sign that he found something/someone better, so if anything that line probably should have dropped, but that's just not how these things work. Defenses are a wash, neither team plays any. Experience and continuity are edges all the way around for the Owls, from the offense, to the defense, to the coaching staff, and the fact that they never lose this series at home. I want this game on my card. Should I lay the 120 and get a 3? The other factor is an injury to Clement or dillard and this one is toast. I hate betting early if I feel a team is too reliant upon one person, such that an injury or suspension could take me off the play after I have it locked in.
Choice 3) Northwestern. Must ...not...bet...Wildcats ...as...home... favorite... Cuse are a horrid road dog though. You look at Syracuse's passing attack in shambles, you see the OL can't keep Robinson upright, you combine that with OC Browning being a run game specialist and you can be damn certain the Orange will want to give the ball to their backs who are finally healthy again. (The fact that they suck at running is moot, that will still be their desire.) NW has a mediocre rush defense combined with John Gill being out and it just makes a hell situation with backdoor written all over it. To make matters worse, the one things that seems a certainty is that NW's veteran/dynamic offense will score points, but the results speak otherwise including last year against Duke (only 14???) I am trying to pass on this one, i really am but it dropped to 11.5 and might fall further. LOL
Choice 4) BC. Too much at the line of scrimmage for a MAC squad I believe. From a skill standpoint the Golden Flashes are equal or better if for no other reason than their experience, and spot favors them I would have to say, but I am just totally convinced in the trenches the Eagles will control this one throughout. Their DL is large and athletic, while the OL is great (as always) and they have excellent skill. That was a Tom O'Brien thing, great line play and most of them are still his guys. A lot of Jarvis' success last year was up the middle - surprising considering his size, but now he is missing his center and one of his guards and he is running into a pair of tackles that tip the scales at 650 pounds. And anything that gets through them will be eaten alive by that awesome trio of backers. I just don't see a whole lot of points for KSU. No doubt the BC secondary leaves something to be desired, but Edelmen isn't a pocket passer and in fact isn't much of a passer at all having thrown for more INTs than TDs in each of his two D1A years. It did just move back up to 10 from being at 9 and then 9.5 though so my window may be gone now.
Choice 5) Pitt. I think we've discussed this before. Basically I think there is line value here and I think again there is a noteworthy edge at the line for the BCS team. Now down to 11.5 at BM which is trending nicely. Really want to hear more about Pitt's QBs and how they are looking.
Choice 6) Missouri. Discussed ad nauseum by all.
Choice 7) Kansas State. There are reasons for it and reasons against it. I was considering the OVER, but I think O's might be unwise until we see how much the game gets reduced. Unlike U's that will benefit.
Choice 8) UNLV. As the line drops I become more interested. Sanford is just so bad though.
Choice 9) Cal. Not heavily discussed. Perhaps too many unknowns to back the Bears, but I really think they are going to have a nice team this season.
Alright help this dog man sort all this out. Are there any of those 9 that you are just ardently opposed to? If you had to rank them... Anything you think I ought to know... Which way are these lines headed in the next 10 days?
I am looking for about 2 or 3 (4 at the most) of these plays to add to Wyoming, and I want to lay the wood. I am not interested in a big card, just a quality card. Help me sort this shit out.
Choice 1) SoCar. I'm primarily a bookmaker guy although I may add some to either the Greek or 5D, but in any event it just went back up to 12 from 11.5 which and it may start trending in that general direction as people realize how depleted the Wolfpack are. Cocks have a state-of-the-art defense which should really limit NCSU. I think 4 TDs would be a possible or even likely cover, anymore than that is gravy. Trouble is, I have this mental block against them as in last year's opener I tried to lay 4 TDs and that was all they fucking scored. :down2: Also there is the whole Tom OB factor. He is a really professional coach and always get a decent effort out of his boys, especially on the LOS. How many times did he replace draft pick linemen with no names who ended up being draft picks themselves? His BC groups were very sound. Having a tough time here, but would like to take the Gamecocks.
Choice 2) Rice. Less attractive now at 3.5 than it was at 3, but still attractive relative to what I thought the line would be, in the one touchdown range. To me the fact that he passed on Willis is a good sign that he found something/someone better, so if anything that line probably should have dropped, but that's just not how these things work. Defenses are a wash, neither team plays any. Experience and continuity are edges all the way around for the Owls, from the offense, to the defense, to the coaching staff, and the fact that they never lose this series at home. I want this game on my card. Should I lay the 120 and get a 3? The other factor is an injury to Clement or dillard and this one is toast. I hate betting early if I feel a team is too reliant upon one person, such that an injury or suspension could take me off the play after I have it locked in.
Choice 3) Northwestern. Must ...not...bet...Wildcats ...as...home... favorite... Cuse are a horrid road dog though. You look at Syracuse's passing attack in shambles, you see the OL can't keep Robinson upright, you combine that with OC Browning being a run game specialist and you can be damn certain the Orange will want to give the ball to their backs who are finally healthy again. (The fact that they suck at running is moot, that will still be their desire.) NW has a mediocre rush defense combined with John Gill being out and it just makes a hell situation with backdoor written all over it. To make matters worse, the one things that seems a certainty is that NW's veteran/dynamic offense will score points, but the results speak otherwise including last year against Duke (only 14???) I am trying to pass on this one, i really am but it dropped to 11.5 and might fall further. LOL
Choice 4) BC. Too much at the line of scrimmage for a MAC squad I believe. From a skill standpoint the Golden Flashes are equal or better if for no other reason than their experience, and spot favors them I would have to say, but I am just totally convinced in the trenches the Eagles will control this one throughout. Their DL is large and athletic, while the OL is great (as always) and they have excellent skill. That was a Tom O'Brien thing, great line play and most of them are still his guys. A lot of Jarvis' success last year was up the middle - surprising considering his size, but now he is missing his center and one of his guards and he is running into a pair of tackles that tip the scales at 650 pounds. And anything that gets through them will be eaten alive by that awesome trio of backers. I just don't see a whole lot of points for KSU. No doubt the BC secondary leaves something to be desired, but Edelmen isn't a pocket passer and in fact isn't much of a passer at all having thrown for more INTs than TDs in each of his two D1A years. It did just move back up to 10 from being at 9 and then 9.5 though so my window may be gone now.
Choice 5) Pitt. I think we've discussed this before. Basically I think there is line value here and I think again there is a noteworthy edge at the line for the BCS team. Now down to 11.5 at BM which is trending nicely. Really want to hear more about Pitt's QBs and how they are looking.
Choice 6) Missouri. Discussed ad nauseum by all.
Choice 7) Kansas State. There are reasons for it and reasons against it. I was considering the OVER, but I think O's might be unwise until we see how much the game gets reduced. Unlike U's that will benefit.
Choice 8) UNLV. As the line drops I become more interested. Sanford is just so bad though.
Choice 9) Cal. Not heavily discussed. Perhaps too many unknowns to back the Bears, but I really think they are going to have a nice team this season.
Alright help this dog man sort all this out. Are there any of those 9 that you are just ardently opposed to? If you had to rank them... Anything you think I ought to know... Which way are these lines headed in the next 10 days?
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
Where it stands right now for me if nothing at all changes either with the teams or the lines, I would have to say that Rice, BC, and Pitt would probably be above the cut line with Cal next, and the others would miss out in some undetermined order.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
Geez, a lot of movement on BM overnight:
SC to -12
Rice up to -3.5
NW down to -11.5
Ole Miss up to -9
Wisky down to -25 (d'oh)
Nebraska down to -13.5
Oregon down to -13.5
Tulsa up to -14.5
Miss St. down to -8
Okla. St. up to -7
Pitt down to -11.5
Florida up to -34.5
Missouri up to -9.5
Cal down to -4.5
Arizona down to -26.5
UNLV down to -11.5
A&M down to -20
L'Ville down to -3.5
SC to -12
Rice up to -3.5
NW down to -11.5
Ole Miss up to -9
Wisky down to -25 (d'oh)
Nebraska down to -13.5
Oregon down to -13.5
Tulsa up to -14.5
Miss St. down to -8
Okla. St. up to -7
Pitt down to -11.5
Florida up to -34.5
Missouri up to -9.5
Cal down to -4.5
Arizona down to -26.5
UNLV down to -11.5
A&M down to -20
L'Ville down to -3.5
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I will just fire off some off the top of my head thoughts as I don't have any notes or reference points in front of me right now. Will probably be a long babbling post, but hope it helps at least somewhat.
First off, the ones that I know I definitely won't be playing...
South Carolina - Honestly didn't look too much into it as I don't see the value in the DD line here. Talent wise, SC should dominate, but too many questions and intangibles here for me to take a shot. Much too high profile a game with a solid line that should draw action on both sides. Was really hoping for under DD but that never materialized.
BC - see this one as being a grind it out type of affair so would hate to lay 10 in what could be a 17-9 type of game. Didn't really look into it much as BC laying that much on the road didn't interest me as I am more into home than road favs unless it involves an overmatched team in all facets of the game, and Kent is far from that as I wouldn't be shocked if they were in it going into the 4th.
Mizzou - I am more of an under the radar guy so don't really pay much attention to the higher profile matchups
KSU - Not sure how the JUCO guys will step up as this one could be a shootout with backdoor tendencies. I believe KSU will score in bunches, but not sold on whether or not they can keep NT off the board, especially in garbage time. Can't lay 24 with a team that was under .500 LY. Feel more comfortable with my 26 on Wisky than 24 here. Leaning over at this point as I could see a 52-28 or 51-30 type of game.
UNLV - no way I am laying DD with a team that won 2 games LY, no matter how bad the opponent. Many are all over UNLV, but I wouldn't be shocked if USU won SU b/c anything can happen when it involves such an underachieving team like the Rebels. The bad team thing is the same reason I won't lay the 7.5 pts with Temple against Army and the 8 w/ Minny against NIU as I just can't lay more than 1 score with a bad team until they demonstrate they have turned the corner.
I am already on Rice, NW, and Pitt, so you know I like those. I got Rice at 2.5 120. Experience is the main reason I am backing the Owls. Everyone is right about the defenses, but gotta put my $$$ on Clement as he is for real while SMU will be going with the unknown. NW I think has value at anything under 2 TDs as I was expecting closer to 14.5 to 16.5 on that one. Pitt at home under 2 TDs is solid as well. BGSU was strong in LY's opener but people forget how Minny turned out, so the BGSU win was not as impressive as it was at first glance when you actually think about it.
Lastly, I was thinking about Cal at one point, but I just can't get past their inexperience as I think MSU has a solid shot at the SU win here. MSU has another year under their belt and I think they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder when they go into Berkley, plus if they get the early lead, I expect them to just run and run and run against Cal and that could spell trouble for those laying points. I am thinking this could be a 3 or 4 point game either way, so unless it drops below 4, not interested really.
If I had to rank em, off the top of my head I would probably go with...
1) Rice
2) NW
3) Pitt
4) Cal
5) SC
6) BC
7) Mizzou
8) KSU
9) UNLV
First off, the ones that I know I definitely won't be playing...
South Carolina - Honestly didn't look too much into it as I don't see the value in the DD line here. Talent wise, SC should dominate, but too many questions and intangibles here for me to take a shot. Much too high profile a game with a solid line that should draw action on both sides. Was really hoping for under DD but that never materialized.
BC - see this one as being a grind it out type of affair so would hate to lay 10 in what could be a 17-9 type of game. Didn't really look into it much as BC laying that much on the road didn't interest me as I am more into home than road favs unless it involves an overmatched team in all facets of the game, and Kent is far from that as I wouldn't be shocked if they were in it going into the 4th.
Mizzou - I am more of an under the radar guy so don't really pay much attention to the higher profile matchups
KSU - Not sure how the JUCO guys will step up as this one could be a shootout with backdoor tendencies. I believe KSU will score in bunches, but not sold on whether or not they can keep NT off the board, especially in garbage time. Can't lay 24 with a team that was under .500 LY. Feel more comfortable with my 26 on Wisky than 24 here. Leaning over at this point as I could see a 52-28 or 51-30 type of game.
UNLV - no way I am laying DD with a team that won 2 games LY, no matter how bad the opponent. Many are all over UNLV, but I wouldn't be shocked if USU won SU b/c anything can happen when it involves such an underachieving team like the Rebels. The bad team thing is the same reason I won't lay the 7.5 pts with Temple against Army and the 8 w/ Minny against NIU as I just can't lay more than 1 score with a bad team until they demonstrate they have turned the corner.
I am already on Rice, NW, and Pitt, so you know I like those. I got Rice at 2.5 120. Experience is the main reason I am backing the Owls. Everyone is right about the defenses, but gotta put my $$$ on Clement as he is for real while SMU will be going with the unknown. NW I think has value at anything under 2 TDs as I was expecting closer to 14.5 to 16.5 on that one. Pitt at home under 2 TDs is solid as well. BGSU was strong in LY's opener but people forget how Minny turned out, so the BGSU win was not as impressive as it was at first glance when you actually think about it.
Lastly, I was thinking about Cal at one point, but I just can't get past their inexperience as I think MSU has a solid shot at the SU win here. MSU has another year under their belt and I think they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder when they go into Berkley, plus if they get the early lead, I expect them to just run and run and run against Cal and that could spell trouble for those laying points. I am thinking this could be a 3 or 4 point game either way, so unless it drops below 4, not interested really.
If I had to rank em, off the top of my head I would probably go with...
1) Rice
2) NW
3) Pitt
4) Cal
5) SC
6) BC
7) Mizzou
8) KSU
9) UNLV
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Appreciate your taking the time to post a reply back, good stuff. The biggest watchout I see for FIU is if they get down early and have to deviate from their game plan in say the second quarter, as then I believe we will start to see mistakes, turnovers, bad field position, etc and the game will get out of hand in a hurry.
I am not sold on this FIU team yet, as I think they will be scrappy but they just don't have the talent in the trenches or at the skill positions to keep KU from doing whatever they please in this one. I think KU gets their 50 so the big question is how many do you think FIU will score. Not sure they get more than 10 as I see a 49-10 type of game or something like that (52-10, 59-17, etc). Just waiting to see how the line moves as the week draws to a close as I would love to get 35 but not sure I will be so lucky.
Again thanks for the solid post, best of luck this season!
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Cal line just dropped to 4.5 at the greek. If it gets to 3 then I would have to take the 2.5 120 b/c it would be too tempting to pass up.
Michigan line is juiced up a few places at 3.5 so hoping it gets to 3, because again, I may just have to take the 2.5 120 on principle haha.
Kansas line is at 36.5 at the greek, but 36 everywhere else. Hoping it gets to 35, b/c then I will jump on it, but not sure it will.
Arkie State hasn't budged from 20.5 in months it seems. Want it at 21.5 as my only dog play but the line has maintained position and juice since lines were released it feels like.
FAU value is long gone as I was hoping for 24.5 but line keeps dropping. May take Texas on principle if it gets to 20.
Rest of my leans are still totals..
UF TT if under 50
KU TT if under 48
KSU/NT total if under 64
FAU/UT total if under 60
Michigan line is juiced up a few places at 3.5 so hoping it gets to 3, because again, I may just have to take the 2.5 120 on principle haha.
Kansas line is at 36.5 at the greek, but 36 everywhere else. Hoping it gets to 35, b/c then I will jump on it, but not sure it will.
Arkie State hasn't budged from 20.5 in months it seems. Want it at 21.5 as my only dog play but the line has maintained position and juice since lines were released it feels like.
FAU value is long gone as I was hoping for 24.5 but line keeps dropping. May take Texas on principle if it gets to 20.
Rest of my leans are still totals..
UF TT if under 50
KU TT if under 48
KSU/NT total if under 64
FAU/UT total if under 60
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
Thank you sir. I too like Rice.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
CarolinaBlue SunBelt Conference Special #2
Have a feeling the Arkie State line is gonna drop to 20 or maybe 19.5 over the next week as the public begins to find out that A&M doesn't have the right pieces in place to have a seamless transition to Sherman's new offense.
As a result, I decided to bite the bullet and take it at +21.5 130 instead of settling for +20.5 110. I think getting 4 scores with this scrappy Arkie State team with their solid players at the skilled positions will be a nice cushion in this one, as A&M is gonna take a couple weeks to gel with new coordinators on both sides of the ball. I know Sherman wants to institute a pro style offense with more of an emphasis on the passing game, but his receivers are still pretty young, so I see them relying more on Lane and Goodson in the early going, which means smash mouth football and a grind it out type of game.
Both teams have very young OLs, but they also both have enough talent in the backfield to pile up the yards on the ground. The key in this one will be the secondary play for both teams, as Arkie State is really young back there, while A&M is gonna have a few guys playing new positions after the new DC decided to shake things up a bit.
Basically a lot of unanswered questions for a 7-6 A&M team that will be learning new schemes on both sides of the ball against an Arkie State team that won't be intimidated after playing Texas tough in the opener LY. Give me Arkie State plus 21.5 in what should be an interesting matchup to start the season.
ARKIE STATE +21.5 130 (Greek)
Have a feeling the Arkie State line is gonna drop to 20 or maybe 19.5 over the next week as the public begins to find out that A&M doesn't have the right pieces in place to have a seamless transition to Sherman's new offense.
As a result, I decided to bite the bullet and take it at +21.5 130 instead of settling for +20.5 110. I think getting 4 scores with this scrappy Arkie State team with their solid players at the skilled positions will be a nice cushion in this one, as A&M is gonna take a couple weeks to gel with new coordinators on both sides of the ball. I know Sherman wants to institute a pro style offense with more of an emphasis on the passing game, but his receivers are still pretty young, so I see them relying more on Lane and Goodson in the early going, which means smash mouth football and a grind it out type of game.
Both teams have very young OLs, but they also both have enough talent in the backfield to pile up the yards on the ground. The key in this one will be the secondary play for both teams, as Arkie State is really young back there, while A&M is gonna have a few guys playing new positions after the new DC decided to shake things up a bit.
Basically a lot of unanswered questions for a 7-6 A&M team that will be learning new schemes on both sides of the ball against an Arkie State team that won't be intimidated after playing Texas tough in the opener LY. Give me Arkie State plus 21.5 in what should be an interesting matchup to start the season.
ARKIE STATE +21.5 130 (Greek)
carolinablue
College Football Guru
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=AD2><TD>Pinnaclesports.com
Sat 8/30
</TD><TD>203</TD><TD>Arkansas State</TD><TD>+20.5 -112</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:00 PM</TD><TD>204</TD><TD>Texas A&M</TD><TD>-20.5 +102</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
5dimes.com
<TABLE class=module borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=800 border=0 rgfloat="440,600"><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD noWrap colSpan=8><SMALL>Arkansas State at Texas A&M</SMALL></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=bottom bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>Sat 8/30</TD><TD noWrap>203 </TD><TD noWrap>Arkansas State</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=S1_34> +20 -110 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=top bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>7:00PM (EST) </TD><TD noWrap>204</TD><TD noWrap>Texas A&M</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=S2_34> -20 -110 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Bookmaker.com
<TABLE id=756926 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=oddR><TD class=lineColA><SMALL>4:00 PM</SMALL></TD><TD class=lineColB><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=topRow><TD class=lineNumber>203</TD><TD class=lineName>ARKANSAS ST</TD><TD class=lineSpread>+20-110 </TD><TD class=lineOverunder>-</TD><TD class=lineTotal>-</TD></TR><TR class=botRow><TD class=lineNumber>204</TD><TD class=lineName>TEXAS A&M </TD><TD class=lineSpread>-20-110 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Sat 8/30
</TD><TD>203</TD><TD>Arkansas State</TD><TD>+20.5 -112</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:00 PM</TD><TD>204</TD><TD>Texas A&M</TD><TD>-20.5 +102</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
5dimes.com
<TABLE class=module borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=800 border=0 rgfloat="440,600"><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD noWrap colSpan=8><SMALL>Arkansas State at Texas A&M</SMALL></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=bottom bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>Sat 8/30</TD><TD noWrap>203 </TD><TD noWrap>Arkansas State</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=S1_34> +20 -110 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=top bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>7:00PM (EST) </TD><TD noWrap>204</TD><TD noWrap>Texas A&M</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=S2_34> -20 -110 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Bookmaker.com
<TABLE id=756926 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=oddR><TD class=lineColA><SMALL>4:00 PM</SMALL></TD><TD class=lineColB><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=topRow><TD class=lineNumber>203</TD><TD class=lineName>ARKANSAS ST</TD><TD class=lineSpread>+20-110 </TD><TD class=lineOverunder>-</TD><TD class=lineTotal>-</TD></TR><TR class=botRow><TD class=lineNumber>204</TD><TD class=lineName>TEXAS A&M </TD><TD class=lineSpread>-20-110 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Looks like the Arkie State line will be 20 across the board shortly. Still 20.5 110 at the Greek though.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
I don't like dogs in the first couple of weeks but I agree here. Aggy is trying to put a square peg in a round hole on offense under Sherman. They're still a year or two away from getting the right personnel.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Overnight play at BM last night (what in the heck else am I gonna do with 30k in betpoints???). Had a better line than the Greek so figured I would use my BP on the Trojans, although I wish I had waited on the NW line which is now all the way down to 11 at BM, but oh well. Missed the Wisky one too as I lost 1.5 in value since it is down to 25, but it happens, so can't sweat it too much. Hope the rest of the lines jump this week to make me feel better about locking in early haha. This will be my only play of the year at BM by the way as the betpoints were all the funds I left in the acct. Just not a fan of their cs really, but don't have any major issues with them or anything, just more of a fan of the greek that's all.
USC -19.5
USC -19.5
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Week 1 Card
USC -19.5 (road fav)
NW -12 (home fav)
Rice -2.5 (home fav)
Pitt -12 (home fav)
Wisky -26.5 (home fav)
Troy -4 (road fav)
Tenn -6 (road fav)
Arkie St +21.5 (road dog???)
Just like in year's past, I am gonna keep track of how I do in each of the key categories (HF, RF, HD, RD) so that I can get a read on where my strengths and opportunities lie. I have never really been any good at totals really, so decided to lay off the team totals and game totals I was considering as they just aren't my strong point, so not gonna try and go against what I know works for me (so why in the heck am I playing on the Red Wolves as a dog???). Still debating the Kansas play as a part of me is hoping for a Dr Bob play on FIU so I can get the Jayhawks at under 35, but really I am just doing as much reading as I can to get a feel for just how improved this FIU team will be this year. Also trying to get a feel for the mindset of KU and whether or not they will go for the jugular in the 2H of this one. Best of luck to everyone this year, as the discussion this summer has been great, and I appreciate all the insight everyone dropped into the thread. Just remember, one week does not a season make, as this is a marathon not a sprint, so stay focused on money management, don't chase, and keep your eyes on the goals and checkpoints you have established for yourself prior to that first kickoff on Thursday.
USC -19.5 (road fav)
NW -12 (home fav)
Rice -2.5 (home fav)
Pitt -12 (home fav)
Wisky -26.5 (home fav)
Troy -4 (road fav)
Tenn -6 (road fav)
Arkie St +21.5 (road dog???)
Just like in year's past, I am gonna keep track of how I do in each of the key categories (HF, RF, HD, RD) so that I can get a read on where my strengths and opportunities lie. I have never really been any good at totals really, so decided to lay off the team totals and game totals I was considering as they just aren't my strong point, so not gonna try and go against what I know works for me (so why in the heck am I playing on the Red Wolves as a dog???). Still debating the Kansas play as a part of me is hoping for a Dr Bob play on FIU so I can get the Jayhawks at under 35, but really I am just doing as much reading as I can to get a feel for just how improved this FIU team will be this year. Also trying to get a feel for the mindset of KU and whether or not they will go for the jugular in the 2H of this one. Best of luck to everyone this year, as the discussion this summer has been great, and I appreciate all the insight everyone dropped into the thread. Just remember, one week does not a season make, as this is a marathon not a sprint, so stay focused on money management, don't chase, and keep your eyes on the goals and checkpoints you have established for yourself prior to that first kickoff on Thursday.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Here are the plays that are on the final list to pick from. Let me know what you guys think. All of these lines are from the Greek. Not saying I will play any of these, but if I am gonna add anything to the card over the next few days, these are the 4 that I have it narrowed down to, based on all the updated reading I have done. Give me your thoughts, good, bad or indifferent, thanks. Also, if anyone has any info as to why NW line continues to drop, just curious since I am starting to see 11's which is surprising to me.
Kansas -37
BC -9.5
Tulsa -14
Minny -8
Kansas -37
BC -9.5
Tulsa -14
Minny -8
Wow You read my mind, Im not totally sold on all the hype on Pitt Especially with wanney at head coach
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I have to admit that I am surprised by the VT/ECU total at 50 as I was expecting low 40's. Also kinda surprised by Troy/MTSU at 56 as I was expecting closer to 52. Looks like I may be talking myself into 2 unders if the greek ever puts theirs up haha.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
BC's offense or lack thereof makes me a little nervous as I could see this one being a 16-7 type of game with BC getting more FG's than TDs so gonna lay off unless the line drops towards 7.
Minny - what was I thinking, as I am not gonna lay more than a TD with those guys, so hope this one gets less than 7 also.
Kansas - No kicker or punt returner makes me a little nervous as FIU will be punting a lot and PR was one of the weakest aspects of the Jayhawk game LY, so would like some assurance that it will be better as short fields will help cover the big spread.
Tulsa - Hope the line drops down under 13 as that might make me take a shot.
Minny - what was I thinking, as I am not gonna lay more than a TD with those guys, so hope this one gets less than 7 also.
Kansas - No kicker or punt returner makes me a little nervous as FIU will be punting a lot and PR was one of the weakest aspects of the Jayhawk game LY, so would like some assurance that it will be better as short fields will help cover the big spread.
Tulsa - Hope the line drops down under 13 as that might make me take a shot.
He Hate Me
I hope everyone is treated the same
I am surprised at the VT/ECU total also. It should be strength against strength and a clock ticking, low scoring game. I do not see how VT can reach 27 points unless there is a defensive and special teams TD. The offense is young at the skill positions with zero experience at WR and only Kenny Lewis Jr with experience at RB. Lewis will probably start, but Evans and Oglesby will probably get as many carries. Beamer has not named a starting QB, but will probably use both. Glennon is Glennon and will be even more limited with these WRs. The Tech defense may be a little suspect up the middle, but solid everywhere else. FYI, Macho was hurt in Friday's practice, but should play and may not be 100%. He is VTs best chance at scoring a special teams or defensive TD.
CB, you may find this story interesting. I ran into Josh Olgesby's father at a bar here in Wilmington, just after Josh signed with VT. VT was playing UNC in basketball and he was sitting at the table next to us. He had a Carolina shirt on and a VT hat. So, I started talking to him and he told me who he was. I asked him how recruiting went with Josh and he slammed Bunting. He said Josh wanted to play at UNC, but Bunting would not offer. He went to camp at VT and they offered, so Josh took the sure thing. This just seems weird to me being that his father was a good RB at UNC and played with Bunting. I think I know Josh was a top 30 in NC and was a above average recruit. I guess that is why Bunting could not make it as a head coach. Josh's father went on to say that he was comfortabe with Josh's decision to accept VTs offer because he played with Billy Hite, our Rbs coach, at UNC.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Nice post He Hate Me, appreciate the contribution to the thread. Based on the line, a 50 pt total would mean something like 30-20 VT, and I just don't see the Hokies getting 30 in this one, even if they happen to get a special teams TD off a punt block or something like that. Biggest watchout for me is the potential for turnovers, as that could kill an under in a hurry, and honestly that is the only thing keeping me off this one. Well that and the fact that the greek still doesn't have totals up for Sat yet!
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Troy total now down to 53. Guess I was right about that 57 being too high. Too bad I never had a chance to play it for the under, so what good does that do me now, haha.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Texas back up to 24...do I dare make a play on FAU now? I was hoping for +24.5 and it might just get there. No way CB has 2 dogs on one card, is there????
Kansas down to 36...hoping for around 34, so still got a shot at that line, especially if Bob jumps on FIU tomorrow.
Kansas down to 36...hoping for around 34, so still got a shot at that line, especially if Bob jumps on FIU tomorrow.
He Hate Me
I hope everyone is treated the same
Well, Beamer has decided to redshirt Tyrod Taylor and will go with Glennon. Corey Holt will be the #2 QB, unless of a Glennon injury and then they will go with Taylor. This means that Taylor should not play verses ECU at all. Glennon has been a poor decision maker, takes sacks, fumbles the ball, and to be as strong as they claim (he broke most of Drunkenmiller's QB weight lifting records) he cannot put anything on the ball when throwing toward the sidelines. He played with three wide receivers over the last couple of years that seemed average at best while at VT. Now two of them (Morgan and Royal) will be starting for their NFL teams and the other (Clowney) would be the number three receiver for the Jets if he did not break his collar bone. Glennon was horrible throwing to these NFL caliber receivers, imagine how bad he will be with inexperienced wide outs who don't run good routes and can't make up for his errors. The starting wideouts should be a true freshman (Roberts) and a redshirt junior converted from QB (Whitaker). A redshirt freshman (Coale) will be in one three receiver sets, if any are run. I believe that VT will stick with the running game, throw wide reciever screens, throw to the TE (Boone), and try to get out with a win. Now we just need Beamer to limit Macho Harris to the defensive side of the ball because he is a not 100%. The plan was for the season is for Macho to return punts and play 10 to 15 snaps at wide out on offense. I believe the total is down to 48 now, which still seams high given the above info.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Added FAU +24.5 120 at the Greek tonight. I actually think this one is gonna settle back in around 23, so figured I would grab it while I could. Smith will be the key here, as I think he gets some opps against the young Texas secondary, leading to FAU putting a decent amount of points up on the board. Wouldn't be surprised at a 52-28 type of game or maybe 45-21, but also wouldn't be surprised if FAU kept it a little closer than expected with Texas getting a little breathing room in the second half. I will probably regret having 2 dogs on my card, especially 2 Sun Belt dogs, but what the hell.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
The only way to play sunbelt favorites is to wait for conference games .....:36_11_6:
good luck with the schnellenberger !!
O
O-State
Guest
I like all Carolina's picks except the Rice game. Minny I actually was wondering myself considering NIU was awful last year I think Minny will be more improved then NIU under Kill. I just can't find any information out there on the web for these teams to give me any better of a feel. I liked what I saw from Minny's Big Ten network practice Brewster mentioned importance of beating NIU.
The Rice SMU pick I'll defer to you guys I'm laying off. First of all I don't follow those teams much, but on paper I see no reason for such strong feelings on this game. Only fact that SMU has a inexp qb new system, but Rice sucked against the pass this game is like Tulsa UAB.
The Rajon Cajuns laying dd to Southern Miss is mystifying. SMU new coach, new dline, they weren't that much better than Cajuns last year. I still don't know enough about these teams so I won't play.
Arkie State +20 line is attractive.
--Kansas motivation, considering they dominated FIU last year you wonder if they will be up. But Mangino is not that type, they dominated every lesser opponent last year.
---Kansas State, I just see a giant off. advantage for KSU but also see North Texas could pass on KSU and that concerns me back door. Really looking at this play anybody got any information.
I'll tell you Texas is going to be challenged right out of the gate with FAU and UTEP for that inexp secondary.
The Rice SMU pick I'll defer to you guys I'm laying off. First of all I don't follow those teams much, but on paper I see no reason for such strong feelings on this game. Only fact that SMU has a inexp qb new system, but Rice sucked against the pass this game is like Tulsa UAB.
The Rajon Cajuns laying dd to Southern Miss is mystifying. SMU new coach, new dline, they weren't that much better than Cajuns last year. I still don't know enough about these teams so I won't play.
Arkie State +20 line is attractive.
--Kansas motivation, considering they dominated FIU last year you wonder if they will be up. But Mangino is not that type, they dominated every lesser opponent last year.
---Kansas State, I just see a giant off. advantage for KSU but also see North Texas could pass on KSU and that concerns me back door. Really looking at this play anybody got any information.
I'll tell you Texas is going to be challenged right out of the gate with FAU and UTEP for that inexp secondary.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I wouldn't be surprised to see Rice come back down to 3 as people start putting their money on SMU b/c of the June Jones hype that will be revved up between now and kickoff.
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
Yeah, that is sort of where I'm at with that game. If I can find a 2.5 right before gametime then I will get inolved, otherwise I'm not so sure.
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
GL this year bro.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
TROY = WINNER
Year to Date 1-0 +1.0 units
Still got the touch with the Sun Belt as Troy makes easy work of MTSU as they pretty much dominated this one from start to finish. Great way to start the weekend and the season, but a long journey lies ahead as I have said many times before. Always nice to start the new year off with a bang though. Best of luck the rest of the weekend!
Year to Date 1-0 +1.0 units
Still got the touch with the Sun Belt as Troy makes easy work of MTSU as they pretty much dominated this one from start to finish. Great way to start the weekend and the season, but a long journey lies ahead as I have said many times before. Always nice to start the new year off with a bang though. Best of luck the rest of the weekend!
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
That is an interesting conclusion based on the box score I saw. Looked statistically very competitive and 14-pt margin is surprising. I am certainly not arguing though as I did not listen to nor see the game. I will assume that MTSU turnovers were much more damaging than Troy's were.
horses
Brady licks Marino's knob
Hey CB, great way to start the year.
I didn't see one play of this game; however, i did tick the game at a local bar with a buddy named RJ. Not sure at all how you can call "domination" in this game though; from what I 'saw', troy was very lucky with a lot of the situations they inherited during the game thru no ability of their own, but rather MTSU's own ineptitude. Only bringing this up for future reference for these two teams...nothing against you and the fact you cashed at all.
I didn't see one play of this game; however, i did tick the game at a local bar with a buddy named RJ. Not sure at all how you can call "domination" in this game though; from what I 'saw', troy was very lucky with a lot of the situations they inherited during the game thru no ability of their own, but rather MTSU's own ineptitude. Only bringing this up for future reference for these two teams...nothing against you and the fact you cashed at all.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Based on what I listened to online, that was my take on the game as it just didn't seem that MTSU was prepared for this one mentally or physically. Honestly haven't even looked at the box score as I was just going by what I heard on the radio as it just seemed that Troy was always in control and MTSU just never got into a good flow as they kept making mistakes at the most inopportune times. Hope that helps clarify my point a bit.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
My domination statement is based on the fact that from what I was listening to, Troy just seemed to be on a different level than MTSU in terms of having their head into the game. I am not a believer in luck really as I think there is a reason everything happens, so whether it was focus, ineptitude, whatever, Troy just appeared to be more ready for this one than MTSU was, especially when you consider MTSU was at home and had pretty high expectations going into the matchup. Just my 2 cents of course, and listening to a game and watching it doesn't always give the same impression since via online feed you are at the mercy of the announcer bias, so I am sure both you and Gar have solid points, so no argument there. Thanks!
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Here is the recap from the local paper in TN that makes better sense of my comments that I did haha.
So it goes for MTSU football, firmly entrenched in the building mode, while Troy showed Thursday night in its 31-17 win over MTSU at Floyd Stadium that it is still among the Sun Belt Conference elite.
"I think we closed the gap," Stockstill said after the season opener for both teams. "There is a difference in the two teams. I think they are still the same.
"But I think we are a better team than what we were last year."
For a while, though, it appeared the divide between the upper crust and the middle class of the Sun Belt Conference had grown wider. The Trojans raced to a convincing 24-3 lead early in the second half before the Blue Raiders awakened and rallied to within 24-17 midway through the fourth quarter before watching the Trojans make big play after the other to preserve the win.
So it goes for MTSU football, firmly entrenched in the building mode, while Troy showed Thursday night in its 31-17 win over MTSU at Floyd Stadium that it is still among the Sun Belt Conference elite.
"I think we closed the gap," Stockstill said after the season opener for both teams. "There is a difference in the two teams. I think they are still the same.
"But I think we are a better team than what we were last year."
For a while, though, it appeared the divide between the upper crust and the middle class of the Sun Belt Conference had grown wider. The Trojans raced to a convincing 24-3 lead early in the second half before the Blue Raiders awakened and rallied to within 24-17 midway through the fourth quarter before watching the Trojans make big play after the other to preserve the win.
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
nice hit w/ troy, only game i'm against on the entire week 1 card, got everything else as well...
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Which is the stronger play guys...
Kansas TT over 44.5
or
Florida TT over 49.5
Opinion with reasoning appreciated, thanks!
Kansas TT over 44.5
or
Florida TT over 49.5
Opinion with reasoning appreciated, thanks!
ou_sooners_1
Pretty much a regular
I like the Kansas TT better. I just worry about Florida not opening up the playbook with Miami next. I'm a Big XII guy and I think Kansas is still trying to gain respect and prove last year wasn't a fluke. Plus, if you like Kansas to cover (like me) what's another 9-10 pts.
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
I would say KU as well, but didn't fully handicap either one.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Good feedback guys, thanks. Told myself I would take KU TT at anything under 48 so not sure why I am so hesitant. Might as well pull the trigger on the play as I like the TT slightly better than the -36
carolinablue
College Football Guru
ADDED KANSAS TT O 44.5 115 (all the team totals are 115 at The Greek so didn't have a choice unfortunately). Can't see Kansas getting anything less than 45, so feel pretty good about this one as long as they keep going for the jugular and don't let up in the 2H.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Kansas line just jumped to 45 115. Line moves right after I enter a play make me feel so powerful haha.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
RICE = WINNER 56-27
2-0 year to date with 8 pending on Saturday.
2-0 year to date with 8 pending on Saturday.
