Alright, lets talk Citrus Bowl.
I have waited to post about this in full because of injuries and sitting out. I think everything is clear now. The last detail for Michigan came out on Sunday as Dwumfour had surgery and is out. He was playing through something all year.
I already told ya I have a lot tied to the over...at various numbers. It is 58 right now...I still recommend that as at least a medium play.
Obviously this is an interesting game that ESPN/Disney really wanted to make happen for ratings. I cannot imagine many will be watching Auburn and Minnesota in the same time slot on New Years Day. Wuth 3 losses, I do think this game is a bit above where Michigan should be but they bring ratings that only 4-5 other schools can so they will get the nod in that regard. Jim wanted this match up as well. I give him credit, he wants the kids to go out and face very good teams and see where they are at. In retrospect, facing a team like UK or Tenny would most likely be an easy win but who cares? Bowls are exhibitions. Michigan hasn't cared about a bowl game in the last few years so hopefully this gets their attention and they go out and play well. On the other side, obviously this is a step down to play in Orlando for the Tide as they are generally in the hunt to win it all. I think with so many guys not sitting out that they are here to show something as well.
The biggest key in this game...
Michigan DL vs Alabama OL.
This Michigan DL has played better in the second half of the year but the fact is they are not big. With Mike out, it is even worse. I hope they let the freshman Hinton and Smith play a lot here as they need to be big contributors next year. Both are future stars. Hinton came on at the end and Mazi just needs to work on his stamina and consistency. In general though we saw what OSU with a big O-Line did against this front and that sets everything up. If Alabama goes with a heavy Najee game plan they should feast and set up big plays in the passing game.
How do I see this playing out?
I said before I see a shootout. Michigan over the last half of the year was inside the top 10 in offensive eff. It took awhile for them to gel and some tweeks to the Gattis system as well. It started to get pretty after the halftime in Happy Valley. Shea played really well and if the receivers catch balls the sky is the limit. They left a lot of the board vs Ohio State in a game that could have ended something like 55-41. I have watched a lot of Alabama this year and as GPS will tell ya the injuries on defense hurt. Live overs in the middle of the season were so terrific there for a bit. They have loads of talent but just are not a good Alabama defense (they obv have a high standard). On the other side, Alabama will score and their receivers will have fun as well. Don Brown leaves his guys on islands so it most likely not gonna be pretty. This should be a fun game overall.
Why is this line not moving?
Like, I feel like I haven't heard a word about anyone betting Michigan and I understand that totally. This thing is stuck on 7 and not budging. I get that is a key number but key numbers do not have as much significance as they have in the past(imo).
Recommendations:
Over
Mich TT
Bama TT
Bama -7
In that order...
I am on over and will be on the tt for mich and will live bet the rest...
If Alabama wants to play a clock control game and run 40 times, that could scare this into an under. Another thing I was thinking here today is that the Tide saw what a team they think they are equal to did on Saturday and might want to put on a show... We shall see.
Final score, Alabama 47-Michigan 38
