Satyr
Paster of Muppets
I don't see Liverpool worth backing at these odds. I've seen Besiktas play once or twice this year, I know their results and they're definitely a lackluster team, but as a Liverpool supporter I have to say I'm not overly confident in their win against BJK.
The thing is, and I hate to say this - things haven't looked WORSE than this since Rafa arrived to the club. After a very solid start into the season their game has deteriorated, their main strength, a solid defensive midfield backed by an unbreakable defense - is not at it's best. Agger and Xabi Alonso picked up injuries, Hyypia had to take in the central defender spot and he is so slow nowadays, Sissoko and Mascherano turned into highly unreliable players, can't imagine how they were so good last season and can't pass the ball now...
Crouch is unhappy, Kuyt still biting his nails every 5 minutes and making grimaces for the misses, Torres is now out injured, Gerrard had a talk with Benitez after he substituted him against Everton...
Rafa is making some strange calls, still rotating the squad, trying to figure out how to use Leto, Lucas, Babel, Benayoun...rotating, making them change places...
I wouldn't say things are chaotic, but they definitely need some time to regroup and recapture the winning chemistry.
ALSO have in mind, Everton should have been awarded with a penalty, 2-2 is the realistic result.
Had it not been for Benayoun, Liverpool wouldn't have won at Wigan, they ALMOST lost to Tottenham at ANFIELD, LOST TO MARSEILLE(!) at home...
Come on!
How can you find these odds backable? Last season - definitely, as Liverpool were quite confident then, played very well in CL stage and Besiktas really is poor.
Liverpool should not be -0.75 here, they shouldn't be priced 1.69 to win. That is an unrealistic price. I would have expected a -0.25 or level ball. The Reds have immense problems with their scoring (the only forward who wasn't bad during this black period was Fernando Torres. And he's out) and for the FIRST TIME IN YEARS their defense does NOT look stellar.
Trust me, I watch majority of their games and no one would be happier than me to be able to say "back Liverpool, they're great, they will outclass Besiktas with ease".
I'm NOT SAYING LIVERPOOL WILL NOT WIN. I'm saying they are a bad investment. There is a huge difference, experienced and smart punters will have no trouble understanding it, others will be puzzled.
To me it's like going to the store and paying more than you actually purchased. Meaning you are voluntarily giving your money away by making bad investments.
Perhaps I'm wrong, because I've been in a terrible streak with football lately, lost approximately 20 units in the past 3 weeks (thank God I won MUCH more on NHL and MLB, but that's not the point), my perception could be faltered, but in this case, I am definitely not forcing anything, my heart says Liverpool but my mind screams "no value whatsoever". Not even a fair line.
Liverpool are desperate, I will be watching the game tomorrow and hope for the best. Trust me, even if you win your bets you won't be happier than me Smile. But there is a very important factor here as well. They play against Arsenal this weekend.
Arsenal have 1 day more to rest, they played AT HOME, they crushed Slavia Prague 7-0 and are enjoying the show, without much pressure.
Liverpool are under HUGE pressure right now. Sometimes a team will play well under pressure, but this early in the season, the Reds are already trying to salvage their season...not a good spot for them.
To conclude (sorry for the lengthy post)...I hope for an away win (any kind of win really), but would say the value is on draw here. 0-0, 1-1 are results I could see. Liverpool would be in a bad position then but definitely not out. When they improve their form they can beat Porto at Anfield and Marseille at Velodrome, trust me.
But these odds are worthless in my eyes.
Very likely no play, since I do not believe Besiktas will win either, so I either put a few units on the draw or no play.
Leans for actual plays:
Real Madrid - Olympiakos over 3 goals
Shakhtar X2
Werder - Lazio under 2.75
Only leans so far, will post my plays later on. :cheers:
The thing is, and I hate to say this - things haven't looked WORSE than this since Rafa arrived to the club. After a very solid start into the season their game has deteriorated, their main strength, a solid defensive midfield backed by an unbreakable defense - is not at it's best. Agger and Xabi Alonso picked up injuries, Hyypia had to take in the central defender spot and he is so slow nowadays, Sissoko and Mascherano turned into highly unreliable players, can't imagine how they were so good last season and can't pass the ball now...
Crouch is unhappy, Kuyt still biting his nails every 5 minutes and making grimaces for the misses, Torres is now out injured, Gerrard had a talk with Benitez after he substituted him against Everton...
Rafa is making some strange calls, still rotating the squad, trying to figure out how to use Leto, Lucas, Babel, Benayoun...rotating, making them change places...
I wouldn't say things are chaotic, but they definitely need some time to regroup and recapture the winning chemistry.
ALSO have in mind, Everton should have been awarded with a penalty, 2-2 is the realistic result.
Had it not been for Benayoun, Liverpool wouldn't have won at Wigan, they ALMOST lost to Tottenham at ANFIELD, LOST TO MARSEILLE(!) at home...
Come on!
How can you find these odds backable? Last season - definitely, as Liverpool were quite confident then, played very well in CL stage and Besiktas really is poor.
Liverpool should not be -0.75 here, they shouldn't be priced 1.69 to win. That is an unrealistic price. I would have expected a -0.25 or level ball. The Reds have immense problems with their scoring (the only forward who wasn't bad during this black period was Fernando Torres. And he's out) and for the FIRST TIME IN YEARS their defense does NOT look stellar.
Trust me, I watch majority of their games and no one would be happier than me to be able to say "back Liverpool, they're great, they will outclass Besiktas with ease".
I'm NOT SAYING LIVERPOOL WILL NOT WIN. I'm saying they are a bad investment. There is a huge difference, experienced and smart punters will have no trouble understanding it, others will be puzzled.
To me it's like going to the store and paying more than you actually purchased. Meaning you are voluntarily giving your money away by making bad investments.
Perhaps I'm wrong, because I've been in a terrible streak with football lately, lost approximately 20 units in the past 3 weeks (thank God I won MUCH more on NHL and MLB, but that's not the point), my perception could be faltered, but in this case, I am definitely not forcing anything, my heart says Liverpool but my mind screams "no value whatsoever". Not even a fair line.
Liverpool are desperate, I will be watching the game tomorrow and hope for the best. Trust me, even if you win your bets you won't be happier than me Smile. But there is a very important factor here as well. They play against Arsenal this weekend.
Arsenal have 1 day more to rest, they played AT HOME, they crushed Slavia Prague 7-0 and are enjoying the show, without much pressure.
Liverpool are under HUGE pressure right now. Sometimes a team will play well under pressure, but this early in the season, the Reds are already trying to salvage their season...not a good spot for them.
To conclude (sorry for the lengthy post)...I hope for an away win (any kind of win really), but would say the value is on draw here. 0-0, 1-1 are results I could see. Liverpool would be in a bad position then but definitely not out. When they improve their form they can beat Porto at Anfield and Marseille at Velodrome, trust me.
But these odds are worthless in my eyes.
Very likely no play, since I do not believe Besiktas will win either, so I either put a few units on the draw or no play.
Leans for actual plays:
Real Madrid - Olympiakos over 3 goals
Shakhtar X2
Werder - Lazio under 2.75
Only leans so far, will post my plays later on. :cheers:
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