Big Alimony 2006-2007 Bowl Selections and Analysis

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Tidbit on the "adding a 12th team idea"...got a buddy who knows some Big12 office folks, they dont want to add a 12th team and a conference championship b/c they dont want to diminish the rivalry and the ratings of Ohio St/Michigan.

BTW, Wolves are now +1.5...will it get to 3?
 
As usual, one of the best threads on CTG. First off, congrats BAR on an outstanding season. You know your sports and it's very impressive that you can be profitable in different sports as well...I personally don't see that very often.

I don't usually post unless it involves me making money; however, BCS discussions are a lot like a train wreck...I just can't stay away...my take:

BAR, you mentioned in another thread that UM had the 3rd toughest schedule in the country. Not sure what your metrics are for calculating such a ranking, but I submit your metrics are not accurate. Just at a glance, USC and UF had tougher schedules. If these are the two teams you had in front of UM, SOS-wise, Ok...but I think there are other teams that had tougher ones as well. Going on...you call bullshit on the reasons UM is not in the MNC game. However, you provide no tangible reasoning as to why they should be in the MNC game, other than: "they're better...it's obvious to everyone and they'd be favored by 6 on a neutral field". Not even close to the point; save for last year, I think there has always been a team outside the MNC game that would have been favored over one of the two particpants in the title game. The bottom line is this:
both UM and UF had one loss each and UF played the tougher schedule. That is the only TANGIBLE aspect to this analysis. Hell, USC and LSU would be favored over the Gators on a neutral field! Why not just ass-fuck the Gators and put 'em at #6 in the BCS...who needs the regular season anyway, right?!

In all fairness, if I was a Wolverine fan, I would be distraught as well. Judging from your tone, I think you're a tad bitter, but I would be as well. This system is just SCREAMING for a 4-team playoff. Anything more would compromise the regular season IMO.

Best of luck on your bowl plays; I know you don't agree with everything I wrote, but tangible evidence is the only way to go in my mind.
 
Horses...quite a compliment from yourself.

In all honesty, not bitter. Wasn't suprised. The system calls for 2 best teams. PERIOD. These are not the two best teams. Michigan, LSU, and even USC are all better than Florida in my estimation.

Put Michigan on a field with Florida and they win. Better offense, better defense and better special teams. Overall coaching staffs make that apect pretty even.

Florida did their job. The schedule actually wasn't as tough as it could be. What I mean by that is they played best scedule but teams like Aubbie, UGA and Tenny at end were not as good as advertised.

As I said, I set myself up for the fall and got over it quite quick. That being said...IT THE TWO BEST TEAMS are supposed to play for national championship. Once again, that is not case. A four team playoff would be great.

My biggest thing that annoyed me was people saying Michigan "had their shot" and stuff like that. Thats ridiculous. They cannot control which what other teams in their conference do. Just lame statements by some people.

Either way, it set up two great handicapping spost for me for both Big 10 teams. The cash will help soothe the pain..lol
 
Appreciate that response Big Al; FWIW...I do agree Michigan is the 2nd best team in the country. Can't for the life of me figure out the line movement in that game. The MNC game is quite so obvious to me...getting more than a TD with the better defense is the basis of a pretty good wager. Buckeyes have been an ATS machine, though. I'm basically hoping for some movement in that line. 7' seems like a sharp number.
 
I noticed you placed Michigan -1 as 4 UNIT play, but I must have missed the explanation for it.

What makes you think Michigan will bring 100% to this game? USC will play hard because they lost their chances at a NC game outright whenever they lost to UCLA. Sometimes, teams do too much thinking and pouting about what "should have been" instead of focusing on "what is." This game isn't about who is the better team here, it's developed into who can stay focused on "this" game.

Right now, I have to lean towards USC in that department unless you can convince me otherwise. I mean, how many times have we seen this scenario where teams that didn't get to go to the bowl game of their desire, usually got beat in the bowl game they did play in? Seems like a lot.

I just stumbled on to this site and don't know you from the man on the moon, but you obviously must know something by the number of posts this thread has. I'd appreciate your thoughts.
 
Seattle thats a dangerous question to ask him ;) The one reason I lean towards USC is the whole dynasty factor. Caroll has put too much effort into building this program.. they are on the verge of being preseason 1 or 2 next year and I just cant see him losing 3 out of 5 or whatever to end the year.. especially in cali. I mean this team has lost 4 games in 4 years.. But we'll see.
 
BAR i have one question for you. Lets say since Michigan is 'clearly' the second best team, because they dominated the tough big 10 and went through their hard non conf schedule. For whatever reason..
They then get their chance and beat Ohio St in Glendale.
Is michigan the National champion then? I mean both teams will have identical records, and both will be 1 - 1 against each other. If you say well yes, then you are saying that the huge game ohio st won in columbus meant nothing. I would love to hear your response to this.
 
SeattleSlim said:
I noticed you placed Michigan -1 as 4 UNIT play, but I must have missed the explanation for it.

What makes you think Michigan will bring 100% to this game? USC will play hard because they lost their chances at a NC game outright whenever they lost to UCLA. Sometimes, teams do too much thinking and pouting about what "should have been" instead of focusing on "what is." This game isn't about who is the better team here, it's developed into who can stay focused on "this" game.

Right now, I have to lean towards USC in that department unless you can convince me otherwise. I mean, how many times have we seen this scenario where teams that didn't get to go to the bowl game of their desire, usually got beat in the bowl game they did play in? Seems like a lot.

I just stumbled on to this site and don't know you from the man on the moon, but you obviously must know something by the number of posts this thread has. I'd appreciate your thoughts.
Click to expand...

SS, I posted all the picks in first window per Troy Stacks request to be more viewer friendly. All my picks were made on Sunday Dec 3rd between 8:30 pm and 9:40 pm approx...except the Michigan one..knew line would drop. I put explantion for play on page 2 of this thread. I totally understand your thinking. I thought same way to for awhile. I have read enough outta Ann Arbor that indicates otherwise. Coach Carr's final game will be a victory.
 
Jake Long expected to come back..announcing at a rose bowl presser tomorrow supposedly.
 
AWESOME

Thats huge fror my boy outta Lapeer(yeah...the hick town just North of me..lol)
 
i ahte betting against caroll but i think its the right play i have to see how my bowlseason starts off before i take a chance
 
Added Hawaii and BYU to the top window. Dr. Bob moved those lines to the numbers I wanted and I got my games. GL to Bob but not on these games..hehe
 
How many guys from michigan are testing the draft waters.. I saw the reports out of columbus and SC already
 
Longhorns

B.A.R. said:
I will only say a short few words here. If this line dips udner 10 I will most likely go for the middle. Another game that was way overpriced and got bet down to a more reasonable line.

Obviously Texas could give a fuck here. Drew Tate needs nice game to impress scouts

Iowa +14 -105
Click to expand...


Not under 10(yet) but now at it. Whatcha thinking now. I held off tailing you on this and may now try UT at -10

GL
 
Chargers...I def wouldn't play Iowa at 10.

Now,I do think Texas wins this game but in all honesty I cannot say they win by double digits.

Iowa has a Senior QB who needs a real good performabnce here after a below standard season for himself(as far as what we expected from Drew).

Texas....will they have any motivation whatsoever? Tough game to get up for in all honesty. I would talk to Horn and RJ and the other Hornfans a bit more about teams state of mind.

I may still middle....not sure yet.
 
Abcs..branch will leave, crable might leave and long, hart, henne are coming back
 
I almost want to drive up to semconville with a #8 Jersey on and watch this game with you fools
 
Good luck but it is going to be very hard to make the argument that Michigan is top 3 in the nation after they lose to USC. Two teams I would not want to play in a bowl game are the Buckeyes (Tressel) and USC (Carroll). Two of the best big game coaches in the game. Michigan does not want to be in that game and the pub will only remember USC's loss to UCLA at the end of the year. Michigan is getting pounded right now and the line is dropping like crazy. USC will spread the d out just like the buckeyes did and score at will with Smith and Jarrett. Good luck again just thought I would give my two cents on the game.
 
B.A.R. said:
Lets go ahead and get this one out of the way.

Heres the deal with the Buckeyes. They have a helluva offense. We know that. On defense, I have two views. They are not that good against a top flight offense. Michigan shredded them. Good skill players and a goodl ine can hurt them. Now, against bad or average offenses this Buckeye team played very well this year on defense.


Ohio St -7 -121 4 units
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The Wolverines had at LEAST a 13 point swing on turnovers BAR. I know you love Michigan and they are a good team as well, but when it was 28-14, the Buckeyes were about to roll when they GAVE Mich the points they got. We cant play it again, but it wouldnt be close if those 13 points wernt given to them. Two drives for Michigan were for 9 yds and 3 yards I beleive, and the Buckeyes fumbled at the Mich 32 which would have been at least 3 points there. That doesnt qualify for "shredding" anyone.

Just wanted to share that, because you seem to have discounted the Buckeyes some by stating that they played poor teams. Michigan will have their hands full with another team thats "not that good" so well see if they are the real deal in that one too.

I do agree that good skill players and a good line can hurt any team, and Fla has some good talent there, but we'll see what USC has in store for the Wolverines.

GL on the Bowls as I see alot of plays you have that I like too.:shake:
 
Gman.. i do agree that was not a 3 pt game.. or whatever it ended at. In no point from the begin. of the second quater on did it feel like michigan had a shot to win. But its in the past..

We will see what kind of heart this michigan team has in the rose bowl game..

BAR still never answered my question
Lets say since Michigan is 'clearly' the second best team, because they dominated the tough big 10 and went through their hard non conf schedule. For whatever reason..
They then get their chance and beat Ohio St in Glendale.
Is michigan the National champion then? I mean both teams will have identical records, and both will be 1 - 1 against each other. If you say well yes, then you are saying that the huge game ohio st won in columbus meant nothing. I would love to hear your response to this.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Click to expand...
 
bottom line is UM lost by 3, I don't care how or why.

the shoulda, woulda, coulda can be debated for days.
 
Im not debating anything.. a loss is a loss.. thus instead of controlling their own destiny they put it in the hands of the voters, they have no one to blame but themselves., (im pretty sure before hand carr said he didnt think the loser deserved a rematch). thus they arent playing on the 9th. Anyway good luck on your plays b.a.r.

Merry christmas to the semcon family
 
I wasn't referring to you abcs.

happy holidays to you too.

they did lose, I won't dispute that..but how they lost can be debated till the die I die.
 
Hey BAR.. still undecided on Oregon BYU play
I was just wondering why you like BYU for a 2 unit play?

I honestly see BYU scoring 30-40 points..but I also believe Stewart gets 150 yards and BYU secondary problems. Also Oregon top 10 pass defense

Just a tough game for me...lean BYU since Oregon struggles lately and turnover problems.. but just want your thoughts.
 
G-Man said:
The Wolverines had at LEAST a 13 point swing on turnovers BAR. I know you love Michigan and they are a good team as well, but when it was 28-14, the Buckeyes were about to roll when they GAVE Mich the points they got. We cant play it again, but it wouldnt be close if those 13 points wernt given to them. Two drives for Michigan were for 9 yds and 3 yards I beleive, and the Buckeyes fumbled at the Mich 32 which would have been at least 3 points there. That doesnt qualify for "shredding" anyone.

Just wanted to share that, because you seem to have discounted the Buckeyes some by stating that they played poor teams. Michigan will have their hands full with another team thats "not that good" so well see if they are the real deal in that one too.

I do agree that good skill players and a good line can hurt any team, and Fla has some good talent there, but we'll see what USC has in store for the Wolverines.

GL on the Bowls as I see alot of plays you have that I like too.:shake:
Click to expand...

Heres my problem with everone who says it wasn't a three point game..

Tell me that both 50 yard Ohio St runs were not off busted plays. Tell me that if not for sloppy and thick turf that MM doesn't have UM up 14-7 in first qtr.

Thats a 21 point swing right there.

Thats why I say...3 crazy plays evened out the Ohio St turnovers. I feel like I watched a different game...and Hunt too..than the rest o country.

Also, Michigan creates turnovers..thats part of their game..nothing to discount final score wise.

Ohio St was better and deserved to win as I have said all along. The game ended as it was. I sad all along it would be a FG game and it was. At Michigan I think the Wolves would take a similar game. Neutral field I would give the slightest of edges to Ohio St because they have simply the best player in country.

I said all along..I am not mad. I can't be. Its be3en a fun college football season. I just can't stand people saying the national championship game is right. I also don't get jokers who think that a rematch shouldn't be allowed.

National Champioship should equal two best teams. The 2007 Fiesta Bowl is not the two best teams. I could argue LSU and Michigan over Florida. Vegas would have both favored against Florida. Enough said.

Thats my last post on the topic.

GL this Bowl season Gman..I'll check your thread soon. Saw it pop up other night but didn't have a chance to read it yet.
 
Gems...

If you remember last year...Oregon believed they were BCS bound. They were not and had to play an Oklahoma team that wasn't as up to par. I played the Sooners huge and they woin outright as a FG dog.

Now, not the same situation this year but lets think about this. Oregon started out red hot this year and faded late. They were expecting more. Meanwhile BYU had a great year and made us all a lot of money. I think 'motivating' factors edge goes to BYU. I also think the Oregon pass defense rank is a bit misleading.
 
The one thing ill agree with on your rant was that if USC beats UCLA then Michigan stays ahead of florida.., some voters definately didnt want to see the rematch

But as far as that game being one possession.. I think thats the blue in your blood.
 
Brian,

Three plays on offense. Two for Ohio St and one for Michigan. Twenty one point swing. All plays that can basically be termed 'turnovers' due to the nature of how they happened.

That cancels out turnovers and then some.

That game ended basically how it should have. Ohio St was a bit better that day...and the score reflected it.

Both teams had a questionable call against them in 4th qtr. Those cancel each other out.
 
I got about 8 what if's too...

but I won't get into it.

two words.

willis barringer.
 
Added a play in top windwo tonight on Troy. Just a basic play. I had line valued at 3...5.5 is solid..I'll take it

Added 2 more Units o Hwaii xmas eve....huge play....Good luck
 
Love hawaii here.. no clue on tonights game

G luck.. have you had any idea about hedging that rose bowl play yet ? ;)
 
Don't kid yourself son. I will be smodod and dsay me and hunt predicted that 4 point line move in rose bowl. Should be a fun game..Michigan 27-21
 
You been sippin on grandpas cough syrup today?? I noticed your typing is a little shaky
 
LMAO.

Bro, I have been moving non stop since 9:45 am....hectic at work...then trying to get some laundry done while cleaning up the place for the upcoming holiday...and now trying to get my games in...just non-stop..imma sweatin my ass off.

Knocking back a quick Jack and Coke before I head out..a triple ;)
 
yep...great win. surprised how athletically superior they were to rice...though if the starting QB had played, it woulda been much different/closer.
 
b.a.r. i agree mich shouldve played i also agree that LSU might be the number 2 or even 1 in ncaa i wouldve loved to see lsu mich game wouldve been best game of year ,I also believe imo that mich would roll over usc but i dont think there heads are gonna be in it . I just cant get a feel for them right now,and my gut feeling says they loose HOW BOUT THE REAL TROY TONIGHT AWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ML AND GETTING 5.5 OMG
 
God damnit I missed the Troy play...I planned on following each pick you had and making 1 unit - 10 dollars

Instead I played Rice ML and it cost me my 4 team parlay that was 35 to win 235.50 :(

Anyways,

Back to this last page at hand...LSU > Michigan

I mean come on, the guys on ESPN said so!

No but forreal I was just watching and the commentators had LSU as the best team in the nation in that tournament thing

Wow they're going to be something SERIOUS next year if Jamacus stays...well even if he doesnt, they have so much talent at QB
 
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