Big Alimony 2006-2007 Bowl Selections and Analysis

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B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
117-91-5 +43.23 units Overall Regular Season.

0-0-0 Bowls

First, I want to give my quick opinions on the BCS controversy.

This is the bottom line. The system is supposed to pick out the two best teams to play for a national championship. That did not happen this year. Michigan would win against Florida easily. I still think LSU is better than Florida. I really do. LSU just happened to have 5 turnovers in Gainesville this season.

The following arguments are bullshit:

-'Had their chance'
-'Didn't win conference'
-'SEC is stronger'

Seriously. The best two teams are not playing. Ohio St and Michigan would have been another close game on a NUETRAL field that could go either way IMO. Florida-Ohio State will not be that close as you will see in my analysis later in the thread.


Alright, its over and done...to the bowls.

I take my Bowl games very seriously. Its where I succeed most historically in college football. Other than Fever last year at Covers, no one played em better and i am proud to be able to get these games right. New year, new games and a lot of work to be done still. Hunt and myself got on the right side of some lines between 8:30 est and 9:45 est Sunday night as Pinnacle released them. I have a few lines that you will not be able to get. I will voice an opinion on the current line as well in case anyone is wondering. Its a lesson to everyone..be on top of those lines. Also, I don't bullshit lines. I posted these in my moderator forum as I took them so their would be no discrepencies. I didsn't want to post them till i could get down on some write-ups. I have the time today.

The litte, shitty bowl games will be played more in next few weeks. I like to wait on those for two reasons.

To the games....

Michigan -1 +101 4 units
Wisconsin +4 -105 2 units
West Virginia -5 -105 4 units
MiamiFl PK +100
Ohio St -7 -121 4 units
Iowa +14 -105 WIN
UCLA -4 -105 2 units LOSS
SJSU +144 WIN
Missouri +146 LOSS
Hawaii -7 +102 3 units WIN
BYU -3 -107 2 units WIN
Troy +5.5 +100 WIN
Hawaii -7 -101 2 units WIN
Central Michigan -7 -121 WIN
UCLA -4 +106 2 units LOSS
Alabama + 118 LOSS
Texas AM +138 4 units LOSS
Rutgers -7 -110 2 units WIN
Houston +6 -110 2.5 units LOSS
Texas Tech -7 -110 6 units LOSS
 
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Wisconsin Vs Arkansas

This line went absolutely nuts Sunday night. It was at a 3 when it came up on Pinnacle and i was going to hit it. It started climbing quickly and got all the way to a 4.5..It then went right back the other way all the way back to a 2. Crazy. Probably a middle on 4 by some syndicates(lol).

Guess what? The Big Ten has 3 of the the top 6-8 teams in the country. Pretty impressive. Wisconsin was under the radar all season somewhat due to the Big Two. They missed Ohio St and played Michigan too early in year to have a significant chance. This is a damn good team that simply went out and won the rest of their games. Stocco is such a solid QB and he doesn't make mistakes. Wisconsin showed last year how good of a Bowl team they are as well.

Arkansas showed they were semi-frauds by the timre LSU got up to Little Rock. I was impressed with them last week. I had a huge play on Florida and know that Arkansas made some critical errors or may have well won that game. Bottom line is, Dmac makes this team go. Thats Wisconsin's task is to make the man mortal.

I think the Badgers are going to control this game start to finish. Worng team is favored here. Arkansas also thought they were BCS bound a few weks ago and this is a step back. Meanwhile I think the Badgers want to prove they are a legit top 5 team. I really think they will. I took the points now and may just hit the ML later

Wisconsin +4 -105 2 units
 
West Virginia vs Georgia Tech

Another game where the line jumped right of the rip. I swear I was prolly 10 seconds early on this line or I don't get it. It went from 5 to 7 in a hurry. Theres a reason too. The line was off.

Lets talk motivation and who wants to be here:

Georgia Tech showed last season their heads can easily be out of a bowl game. They were 8-9 point chalk in Emerald Bowl(I believe) against Utah and got pounded. They didn't care. It was an easy pick for many of us to take the Utes. We knew Ball and Co could give a fuck.

This year, I won't say its as drastic but GT was looking at a possible Orange Bowl bid just a few days ago. How things change. GT is essence isn't very good at all. Solid defense and CJ. Thats their team. Thats not enough.

Meanwhile, WVU is a finely coached team. Rich will have these kids fired up for this game no matter what. They were thinking BCS before season but they played in a favorite heavy conference. Slaton/White are young enough that this game is still exciting to them. I really think that they will be able to run on the edges vs GT. A few long ones and the Tech defense will sorta dismantle.

WVU wins big


West Virginia -5 -105 4 units
 
Miami(Fl) vs Nevada

Well, the weird line movement hit this game harder than any. Pinnacle opened up at 2.5 in favor of Reno. It stayed there for about 20 minutes. Then, it went to 1.5. I said fuck it, I'll sell to basically a ML. I do sell and its PK +100. Well, whoop-de-do, 15 seconds later the line moves to pk +100 all by itself. Within a few more minutes Miami was favored by 3. A 5.5 line change in the matter of 10 minutes.

Lets win one for Coker. I don't see this Miami team quitting on coach here. He is well respected and i wouldn't lable this lame-duck like other situations are. This is still a pretty solid defense and they will have their best offensive day of year against a horrid wolfpack defense.

Once again, off the rip the wrong team is favored.

Miami(Fl) +100
 
Ohio St vs Florida

Lets go ahead and get this one out of the way.

Heres the deal with the Buckeyes. They have a helluva offense. We know that. On defense, I have two views. They are not that good against a top flight offense. Michigan shredded them. Good skill players and a goodl ine can hurt them. Now, against bad or average offenses this Buckeye team played very well this year on defense.

Lets think about it.

Penn St-Bad offense...didn't break 10
Texas-Avereage offense at time
Michigan St-injured offense
Illinois-average offense...scored 10
Minny-a bit above average...did nothing
Iowa-good offense...somewhat stifled though


Theres just some quick examples. I would put the Florida offense on par with an Iowa. They are a bit better perhaps. Hate the statement but other than Percy they are not that impressive to me.

Now, lets talk about the line a little bit. Vegas had a mythical Michigan-Florida line at 6 points. That made me believe that this games line would be 9-10. Then I get myself a nice little 7-7.5 out the gate. Just goes to show what the UM-OSU line would have been. Vegas is smart kids.

Hunt and myself called for Florida to be a darkhorse MNC candidate all summer. Everyone called bullshit. You know what? They cited scheduling and Chris Leak. Well, the schedule was tough but could have been harder if not for some dissapointing SEC teams this year. Leak performed well in year two under Meyer. They should have lost to Gamecocks. LSU beat themsleves and games against UK/Vandy were also very losable.

I am sorry. This isn't bitterness. I knew it was coming. This Florida team in all honesty wouldn't even make it to a final four of college football in my mind. I have them about 5-6 in country. They did win their games though. Much credit. Great year. They won me a prop(lol)

The game...Ohio St will score at will. Tress will have a few tricks up his sleeve. Florida offense will not be able to keep up. Percy will make some plays and provide excitement but in the end a powerful Buckeye team will be too much to overcome. Buckeyes win 37-17

Ohio St -7 -121 4 units
 
Iowa vs Texas

I will only say a short few words here. If this line dips udner 10 I will most likely go for the middle. Another game that was way overpriced and got bet down to a more reasonable line.

Obviously Texas could give a fuck here. Drew Tate needs nice game to impress scouts

Iowa +14 -105
 
UCLA Vs Florida State

Well, this game got hit right away off the Pinny opener. I hit it as fast as possible knowing damn well that UCLA was going to get bet up. It went from 4 to 6 and has leveled out at a 5.

Lets talk Seminoles first. Honestly, no motivation for this club coming in. The program is downtrodden(for their standards) right now aqnd it may be time for Pappa Bowden to retire IMO. Weatherford is sooo up and down and the rest of the offense has been very inconsistent all year long.

UCLA is coming in off a high and the USC game can only help in recruting in SoCal. I think the coaches are going to take this game very seriously. They understand the importance of continuing the momentum in this spot. They own the motivational edge in this game.

I will admit I was wrong about the Bruins this year. I thought they would improve only marginally on defense from last years debacle. I was wrong. They are a damn fine defense and should bottle up Florida St for the most part. The Noles defense is good too but I think UCLA will find enough scoring chances to win by 10-14 points.

UCLA -4 -105 2 units
 
Thats it to start with.

Researching the other matches. I have a ML play I didn't post but will when I play the side as well and have analysis.

Comments, questions etc....please leave.:cheers:
 
I'm going to need an international Bowl play from you guys.... got my tix, Im a CFB junkie now:wacka wacka:
 
LOL-Hunt and myself were making some little jokes about International Bowl up there at Skydome. Good shit for those of you in Ontario though. Neat town for college kids to go to for a bowl game. Won't be warm but something many prolly have never experienced.
 
Smiley...I will hit UM BIG(which I never do as chalk) when I get more insight into their mindset. I also think USC money comes in hopefully.

As HUNTDOG said...Michigan is favored for a reason.
 
B.A.R. said:
117-91-5 +43.23 units Overall Regular Season.

0-0-0 Bowls

First, I want to give my quick opinions on the BCS controversy.

This is the bottom line. The system is supposed to pick out the two best teams to play for a national championship. That did not happen this year. Michigan would win against Florida easily. I still think LSU is better than Florida. I really do. LSU just happened to have 5 turnovers in Gainesville this season.

The following arguments are bullshit:

-'Had their chance'
-'Didn't win conference'
-'SEC is stronger'

Seriously. The best two teams are not playing. Ohio St and Michigan would have been another close game on a NUETRAL field that could go either way IMO. Florida-Ohio State will not be that close as you will see in my analysis later in the thread.
Click to expand...

Here is my opinion.. You dont know for certain these are the 2 best teams. They likely are, but you cant say for sure, since all 3 havent played each other. So as for now, you are playin the matchups in your head. I might agree with you and say Michigan would beat florida, just from watchin the teams play, but neither us of know for sure, so we are just guessing. I mean Hell Boise St could be better than Ohio St..USC with 2 losses in my mind are better than Florida, but I dont know for sure, i am doin the same thing you are doin.. hypothetically speaking.. we dont know since they havent played. As far as a rematch, what would happen if Michigan won this time, they would both be 1 - 1 against each other, would you split the title? If not then Ohio St basically won a meaningless game in Columbus. Michigan was hurt by the piss poor big 10 this year, is it michigans fault it was down, nope.. thats just the way it is though. Do i agree with michigan bein #2 for 3 weeks then all of a sudden gettin jumped like that, no.. but there isnt much you can do. But I think Florida has a legitimate beef to be in the game just like michigan. Michigan did have their chance.. you can say whatever you want, but they got their chance at #1 and lost. I do agree with most of your points though.. good luck on the bowls:shake:
 
By the way Floridas offense has a ton more play makers than those teams you just listed. How can you not be impressed with Dallas Baker? I wouldnt be suprised if he is picked ahead of Menningham in the draft.. and caldwell is a weapon just as Breaston. Leak in my mind goes ahead of henne in the draft. And if wynn is healthy at running back he is a force as well.. Most of floridas faults are with urbans play callin..runnin chris leak with the option etc. But to compares floridas talent to iowa and illinois is wrong.

Floridas average offense scored 1 pt less than Michigan on the year. And im pretty sure the sec defenses are better than the ones in the big 10 :shake:
 
I'm for sure going to be on WVU as well, just waiting to see if I can get it under 7...might just pull it now...was off five fucking mins during the release and came on and WVU was at 7.5 and then saw what it opened at...PIZZZED as that was the oNE I was waiting on.....GT just played the ACC Champ at JAX and I'm sure that they are just PSYCHED to be heading back there for a game that means not even half of the one they just played...this one is a POUNDER for me...

on Wisky...I'm playing this too but didn't get the 3 so I'm just going to take ML...I got some good shit from Stocco yesterday in the papers that I'll go dig up...

I do disagree on Miami...No way in hell can I play Nevada as they have a major talent disparity, but I see no way u can back a Criami play here...this game is in Boise fuckng Idaho and 20 degrees below zero or some shit...I guarantee w/ a lame duck coach and the game in Idaho, that those kids have no desire to go play there and would rather stay at home...look at the bowl game last year, and it was a more meaningful bowl game...This team doesn't have a "win one for the gipper mentaility"...This game is best left alone, no doubt, IMO...

tOSU...Obvious..

UCLA...not sure on this one either...I can't support a FSU play w/ that putrid offense...but w/ Jeff Bowden going out, I see no reason he doesn't try some shit at least...UCLA just played their super bowl and despite the coach's wants and wills, no way they're even remotely as up for this game off that big win...this is a letdown spot...and those are rare in bowl games...but it is...that's a little more of a scary play to me....I think it's a tossup...as they aren't good offensively anyway...so one big play could spell doom for a cover..

Iowa is garbage, but Ive talked it out w/ Hunt and I get your guys 2 TD value...Texas has no backup at all really and Colt is completely up in the air as far as availablity....but Iowa was 2-6 in the Big Ten this year and they have no quality wins at all...zero...and remember, this is a team that was supposed to be darkhorse Nat Champ contenders, ala Purdue last year and lost 6 games vs a schedule that was so weak it was supposed to be the reason they had a shot to go to Glendale...So no way in hell, they are looking forward to going and playing Texas in their own back yard in DEC...yes they had injuries, but they've been garbage since SEP 30..

Love the two 4 unit plays and those are the ones that make hay..

GL all bowl season bro..
 
Brian...no way in hell Leak goes ahead of Henne if he came out this year which I don't think he will...w/ Henne's size, he'd be first round pick for sure...

Leak hans't been mentioned first day on anything I've seen..

It's not close.
 
After arguing with jump on aim.. i rephrase that, i think leak turns out to be a better pro than henne. I think meyers offense doesnt utilize his strengths as a qb properly. The kid throws the best spiral in the game and is extremly accurate. Hes not a spread you out and scramble qb..

THe part where you are saying well LSU had 5 turnovers or what not ( is part of football).. I think Ohio St also turned the ball over 3 times and still won, if they played a clean game, the score would have been worst.
 
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we on the same shit...so you know where I stand.

GL hoss and have a profitable bowl season bro, you have had a helluva year.
 
I am not much of a college football capper, so I am simply going to ride with you on the bowls.

Good luck BAR, and hopefully getting in on these early lines will pay off.
 
One point for now.

I don't think Henne or Leak will do anything in NFL anyway. Henne still has a year to go as well.

I didn't compare Illinois to Florida. i compared Iowa and said Iowa is a notch behind.
 
Florida is going to get mauled. No doubt about it. I should have put 2 dimes on that play in all honesty.
 
ABCS

As far as your signature goes.

Its not your decision or any of ours. Its supposed to pit the BEST two teams for the national championship. That clearly is not the case. Also, stay in the present year.

You like to act like an immature kid way to often. You get fixed on shit too much. Like USC is greatest thing since sliced bread. Joe Johnson is a GREAT player. You have a lot to learn about sports my man.


If I got to pick the national championship game i would have Hawaii play Lousiville. Now that would be a fun game to watch:smiley_acbe:
 
man, im just saying how do you know michigan is the second best.. you dont.. i think your ties to the school have a lot to do with it. Im just saying Ohio St didnt play a clean game, and still won.. and michigan hardly ever stopped them that game, unless they are getting new players i dont see much of a difference. WE are both entilted to our own opinions

As far as joe johnson goes what are you talkin about? I doubt one gm in the league would take hamilton over joe johnson, so im not sure if your homerism is taking over there as well. I thought he was top 15 last year, and now i think hes top 10..
I guess well see in the rose bowl what michigan is about?
 
BTW How is this 'clearly' not pitting the 2 best? That is where you are clearly wrong. But im not gonna debate this with you, no point crying over spilt milk.
Yea Florida had close games, but a win is a win... just ask ohio st the year they won it all, it doesnt matater about margin of victory. You know football or at least i think you do and that wasnt a 3 pt game in columbus.. not at one point did i think michigan was gonna win or was close in that game
 
Not sure if you mentioned this point BAR- You have to ask yourself: Would Florida have jumped UM for the number 3 spot if USC would have won? Not a chance IMO, therefore I think Michigan got screwed. With that being said, I think Michigan may be the better team but Florida deserves to be there also IMO (hence, why we need a playoff).

In all honesty I think Michigan is one of the top two teams in the nation. By BCS standards, they should be in the game then right? Well I could also make a case that LSU is the second best team in the NCAA...should they be there? No because they have two losses (but they still might be better than UM or Florida on a neutral field). Florida, had one slip up and won the best conference, therefore I think they are a justified number 2 by BCS standards.

All in all, the Big 10 has some tough games in the next few weeks...I will be pulling for all of these teams especially my Bucks, your big blue, and Fondy's Badgers...

PS I tend to agree with all of your plays, not sure about OSU though (tempted to take Florida ML so if OSU loses I at least win money lol)....


BOL:shake:
 
:shake:

we can play the what if game all day in the UM/OSU game all day..

bottom line is they lost by 3.

"what if" OSU didn't have 3 turnovers and that PI called? well OSU wins by 10-14

"what if" Manningham doesn't slip on the henne throw in first quarter?

"what if" crable doesn't get called for helmet to helmet?

UM might win SU.

I mean I can go on forever.
 
I never play the what if turnover scenario.. like what was mentioned above, i was just responding to it. What if Michigans vaunted defense didnt give up 500+ yards.. ;) Its all good man. Im sure Florida fans clearly think their team is second best.

Lets just make money on the bowls.. because all the crying and politicing does no good now.
 
what if tOSU's defense didn't give up 400-450? they win by 20.

I agree, let's kick ass this bowl season.
 
Very good points Yes Sir.

Michigan, Ohio St and LSU are top three in country IMO. I was interested in LSU-UM Rose Bowl because it would have been a doozy.

As long as Michigan has heads into game I think they win against USC. The Big 10's big three go undefeated in those games and justify their ratings.

GL on the Bowls Yes Sir.
 
Just an FYI Tom O'Brien will more than likely be than new NCSU coach. Just wanted to let you know if this affects your bowl picks
 
hey bar any chance you could post all your plays in the first part of the thread so its easier to see what your on?
 
B.A.R.-Appreciate your analysis of the games and great job this season. One point I have not heard anyone make regarding the FL-Michigan controversy is concerning the championship game. I don't disagree that Michigan may be better and ultimately may be deserving. However, I think the blame rests with the Big Ten brass. IF the Big Ten would have had a championship game then Michigan would have had their shot with OSU for the outright championship. The fact that they do not have the one additional definitely hurts and you can't penalize FL for going through a brutal schedule. Assume, Auburn would have been undeafted. They would have played FL in the SEC title game. Lose and they are out. However, go undefeated in the Big Ten or Pac 10 during the regular season and you are in the BCS Champ. game. Definitely a disadvantage in most cases for the extra game but in this case it was rewarded. I think a lot of the controversy could be avoided if all conferences had a championship game. That almosts acts as a playoff. Big Ten would have an OSU-UM rematch which we would all love to see. Pac 10 would have USC-Cal rematch.

Just an observation. Best of luck to you.
 
cpa..good to see you signed up man.

I totally agree that Big 10 needs a championship game. What if OSU lost at Texas but manhandled rest of schedule and was penalized for not having an extra game. Credit to Florida, no doubt. I was one of few who said they NC hopes at start of year despite schedule. I also think that SEC wasn't as strong this year. Tenny, UGA, Auburn were all dissapointments. They escaped Vandy, UK and SCARY with close wins. LSU gave them the game. Just not the best team in conference let alone 2nd in country.

You are correct though. Big ten needs that 12th team.
 
Troy...just saw your post. I will do a window with plays at top and update it accordingly. No problem. Good idea.
 
Big Ten has tried to get ND numerous times to add the 12 team to allow the Champ game...

however, they won't pass the money..

Who can they add that's of substance??

Some garbage team doesn't cut it..
 
This will be a long WIP if it ever happens Jump. We both know that. ND gets their own TV network for home games now. It won't give that up or some traditional rivalries.

It has to be a school of substance no doubt. Last one I can remember being talked about was Mizzou..right?

Not saying it will ever happen...but I think it could cost conference plenty of money if BCS is still in place for years to come. I am not saying I am for it totally but fiscally it makes sense
 
In reality..ND is the only team that makes sense. They could then preserve their games against MSU and UM...oh and Purdue..and still play SC and whoever out of conference.
 
New to the CTG. I like all of your picks. Used to follow you guys back in the day. Glad I found this site.

GL
 
i honestly think LSU is the best overall team in the country next to tOSU. I would even go out on a limb and say that LSU has better raw talent than ohio state and would make a better championship game. its too bad they played such a hard scheule with all those SEC games on the road.
 
Michigan vs USC

Alright, ready to bite on this game.

First, remember a lot of the adjustments Michigan did in second half to Ohio St. The Bucks basically scored 7 points(yes it was 14 but one was a broken run that went the distance). They will need to do the same against an excellent passing attack in USC.

Now, the thing USC can't do well is run. They haven't much this year. They won't against Michigan at all. Ohio St didn't other than 2 runs that were nothing made into something. The rest of the year UM gave up 30 yards per game rushing. Thats more the norm than anything.

The USC defense isn't great as in years past. They are good..not great. Mikey Hart will get to them and I cannot see SC being able to do a damn thing with MM, Breaston and Arrington. I would expect those guys to have huge days. Remember that Breaston has been amazing in his last 2 bowl games. He had the record for all-purpose yards in Rose Bowl for a year till Reg broke it last year. Michigan also has a top offensive line to give Henne time.

Motivation. Hunt's signature says it all. Michigan never did anything to not deserve a chance at national title game. USC lost to an average team. I expect SC to be kinda down for this game and Michigan to come out flying.

Michigan -1 +101 4 units
 
I disagree with you about this defense not being as good as the one in years past..In their last 4 games they played 3 teams with top 17 offense and held them to an average of 14 ppg. I actually think this defense is the best caroll has had.
 
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