betting opposite public in the bowls

stevsa

Active Member
hello all,
as betters we have all gone opposite the public on any given game before for no other reason than too many sqares like a team. i really like this approach for bowl games. last year i entered a bowl contest twice. once with my best picks and the other my name was oppu (meaning opposite public). oppu came in second place and won a nice chunk of change since it cost $20 a shot and there was 350+ entered. this contest was ats but i got my public % stats from espn bowl mania. it asked for just the straight up winner and the talking heads on the show all ranked their best picks for all the bowls. under the heading for each bowl it told you the public %.
this year during espn bowl mania show they didnt go through all the games. actually only showed about half the public %. i just entered a free national contest picking the straight up winners for every bowl game. upon completion it showed a % for every game.
i will show the smaller % or the perceived dog by the public.
wake 40% win
col st 10% win
memp 4% loss
ariz 18% win
s miss 26% win
tcu 29% loss
n dame 43% win
fau 5% win
n car 34%win
wisc 17% loss
mia 28% win
n ill 16% loss
nc st 24% win
n western 14% win
nev 20% loss
w mich 26% loss
oreg 15% win
hou 29% win
ore st 36% win
vand 7% win
min 17% loss
lsu 27% win
s car 31% loss
clem 28% loss
mich st 17% loss
ole miss 6% win
kent 15% win
conn 45% win
tulsa 24% win
pen st 24% loss
cin 38% loss
utah 11% win
oh st 10% win
okla 46%
now these %'s are by everyday people, not gamblers. last year oppu had something like 83% winners. i dont really expect those kind of results again but it will be something to look at. this system didnt work as well in some of the bigger bowls however it did win with wvu/okla and mich/flo, both of which over 90% of public on wrong side.
im wondering how this will do this year. so far looks pretty good.
good luck, stevsa
 
Last edited:
seems to be doing well.

Ironically , i like a lot of the sides that the public does not.
 
in another site i posted the same thread and some are not impressed. i copied my response from that thread and will paste here for these members



thanks for responding guys,
in no way am i advocating following this system blindly. as a matter of fact, there are several on here that i will go against. last year i played this system in a shit and giggles play and was extremely surprised and delighted for it to do so well. the contest was only $20 bucks and i thought "what the hell, ive blown 20 on a lot worse". as i stated earlier, i really dont expect the same kind of resusts two years in a row. i just put this out there so it would be documented if it does well again this year. last year most of the losses came in the bigger bowls.
as far as the public %, some of the people prob are gamblers but i would say the majority are armchair qbs that like fb but dont really gamble. a lot of times when i am really spit on a game i will call my father and ask him who he likes and more often than not he is wrong.
if this doesnt work this year this post will fall to the bottom and no harm done. but if it does good it may be added info to help our capping.
good luck and happy holidays
 
Just a guess, but I can see this hitting over 70% this season.

I'm with Kyle, leaning that way on a lot of those.
 
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1 Point Bowl Games

Status Bowl Pick Team Pick % Pick Team Pick %
Ineligible game. EagleBank Bowl
Washington, D.C. (ESPN) --- Wake Forest 29 40% --- Navy 19 60%
Ineligible game. New Mexico
Albuquerque (ESPN) --- Colorado State 40 10% --- Fresno State 35 90%
Ineligible game. majicJack St. Petersburg
St. Petersburg. Fla. (ESPN2) --- Memphis 14 4% --- South Florida 41 96%
Ineligible game. Pioneer Las Vegas
Las Vegas (ESPN) --- Brigham Young (16) 21 82% --- Arizona 31 18%
Ineligible game. R+L Carriers New Orleans
New Orleans (ESPN) --- Southern Miss 30 26% --- Troy 27 74%
Open, Pick By
Tue 12/23 7:45 PM San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia
San Diego (ESPN) Boise State (9) (12-0) 71% TCU (11) (10-2) 29%
Open, Pick By
Wed 12/24 7:45 PM Sheraton Hawaii
Honolulu (ESPN) Hawaii (7-6) 57% Notre Dame (6-6) 43%
Open, Pick By
Fri 12/26 7:45 PM Motor City
Detroit (ESPN) Central Michigan (8-4) 95% Florida Atlantic (6-6) 5%
Open, Pick By
Sat 12/27 12:45 PM Meineke Car Care
Charlotte, N.C. (ESPN) North Carolina (8-4) 34% West Virginia (8-4) 66%
Open, Pick By
Sat 12/27 4:15 PM Champs Sports
Orlando, Fla. (ESPN) Florida State (8-4) 83% Wisconsin (7-5) 17%
Open, Pick By
Sat 12/27 7:45 PM Emerald
San Francisco (ESPN) California (8-4) 72% Miami (FL) (7-5) 28%
Open, Pick By
Sun 12/28 8:00 PM Independence
Shreveport, La. (ESPN) Northern Illinois (6-6) 16% Louisiana Tech (7-5) 84%
Open, Pick By
Mon 12/29 2:45 PM Papajohns.com
Birmingham, Ala. (ESPN) NC State (6-6) 24% Rutgers (7-5) 76%
Open, Pick By
Mon 12/29 7:45 PM Valero Alamo
San Antonio (ESPN) Northwestern (23) (9-3) 14% Missouri (21) (9-4) 86%
Open, Pick By
Tue 12/30 4:15 PM Roady's Humanitarian
Boise, Idaho (ESPN) Nevada (7-5) 20% Maryland (7-5) 80%
Open, Pick By
Tue 12/30 7:45 PM Texas
Houston (NFL Network) Western Michigan (9-3) 26% Rice (9-3) 74%
Open, Pick By
Tue 12/30 7:45 PM Pacific Life Holiday
San Diego (ESPN) Oregon (17) (9-3) 15% Oklahoma State (13) (9-3) 85%
Open, Pick By
Wed 12/31 11:45 AM Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
Fort Worth, Texas (ESPN) Air Force (8-4) 71% Houston (7-5) 29%
Open, Pick By
Wed 12/31 1:45 PM Brut Sun
El Paso, Texas (CBS) Oregon State (8-4) 36% Pittsburgh (20) (9-3) 64%
Open, Pick By
Wed 12/31 3:15 PM Gaylord Hotels Music City
Nashville, Tenn. (ESPN) Vanderbilt (6-6) 7% Boston College (24) (9-4) 93%
Open, Pick By
Wed 12/31 5:15 PM Insight
Tempe, Ariz. (NFL Network) Kansas (7-5) 83% Minnesota (7-5) 17%
Open, Pick By
Wed 12/31 7:15 PM Chick-fil-A
Atlanta (ESPN) LSU (7-5) 27% Georgia Tech (14) (9-3) 73%
Open, Pick By
Thu 1/1 10:45 AM Outback
Tampa, Fla. (ESPN) Iowa (8-4) 69% South Carolina (7-5) 31%
Open, Pick By
Thu 1/1 12:45 PM Konica Minolta Gator
Jacksonville, Fla. (CBS) Clemson (7-5) 28% Nebraska (8-4) 72%
Open, Pick By
Thu 1/1 12:45 PM Capital One
Orlando, Fla. (ABC) Georgia (15) (9-3) 83% Michigan State (18) (9-3) 17%
Open, Pick By
Fri 1/2 1:45 PM AT&T Cotton
Dallas (FOX) Texas Tech (7) (11-1) 94% Ole Miss (25) (8-4) 6%
Open, Pick By
Fri 1/2 4:45 PM AutoZone Liberty
Memphis, Tenn. (ESPN) East Carolina (9-4) 85% Kentucky (6-6) 15%
Open, Pick By
Sat 1/3 11:45 AM International
Toronto (ESPN2) Buffalo (8-5) 55% Connecticut (7-5) 45%
Open, Pick By
Tue 1/6 7:45 PM GMAC
Mobile, Ala. (ESPN) Tulsa (10-3) 24% Ball State (22) (12-1) 76%


6 Point BCS Bowl Games

Status Bowl Pick Team Pick % Pick Team Pick %
Open, Pick By
Thu 1/1 4:15 PM Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi
Pasadena, Calif. (ABC) Penn State (8) (11-1) 24% USC (5) (11-1) 76%
Open, Pick By
Thu 1/1 8:15 PM FedEx Orange
Miami (FOX) Virginia Tech (19) (9-4) 62% Cincinnati (12) (11-2) 38%
Open, Pick By
Fri 1/2 7:45 PM Allstate Sugar
New Orleans (FOX) Utah (6) (12-0) 11% Alabama (4) (12-1) 89%
Open, Pick By
Mon 1/5 7:45 PM Tostitos Fiesta
Glendale, Ariz. (FOX) Ohio State (10) (10-2) 10% Texas (3) (11-1) 90%
Tie-Breaker Game:
Guess the Score.
Pick By Thu 1/8 7:45 PM
Counts as your pick. FedEx BCS National Championship Game
Miami (FOX) Florida (2) (12-1) 54% Oklahoma (1) (12-1) 46%








this is where i got my %. it was actully in a chart form but this is how it came out by copying and pasting
 
i know the %'s say to take nc st but i think the rutgers are THE REAL DEAL right now and think im going to go with them even though everything says nc st. also lean toward nw. may be wrong on both but its just my gut feeling.
good luck all
 
so far 18 wins- 12 losses for just 60%. not nearly as good as last years but its not over yet.
good luck everyone,
stevsa
 
Look at the ones where 30% or less likes one side and that side is actually a dog. By my calculations looks like 13-5 ATS.

Did anyone see the Miss TTU game or maybe Utah and one of the players held up sign about this?
 
yea i saw the sign, that was when espn was doing the "americas vote" and they had a sign that read "91% we couldnt" then he wrote in "we did", I think it was the utah game
 
yeah ole miss.

meanwhile many utah fans i saw were all like we shocked the world etc. i was like, u didn't shock CTG :)
 
on post # 5 i copied and pasted a contest that was nationwide. it was in a very neat chart form but that is how it came out by copying and pasting. i just went to this site and it was down right now but it may be back up later. this is the contests url: http://jacksonville.collegefootball.upickem.net/
if you read my whole post i think that i explained it fairly well. like i said earlier, last year this REALLY kicked ass. i think the first public % work better, before people start seeing which confs are doing well in the bowls. this is only the second year that i have been following the first public % STAIGHT UP picks and it seems to have worked out pretty good.
im sure a lot of these %s changed as we got closer to the games but i just went with the earliest %s i could find. i dont know if this contest site will still be active next year but i have it in my favs just in case. if not i will try to find the %s elsewhere.
so far this year it is 21 wins and 12 losses and that is way down from last year. i definately dont like okla on thu but that % wasnt far from 50 at the start.
good luck to all and peace out everyone,
stevsa
 
If Florida wins/covers on Thursday, which I expect them to do, this system will still go 21-13, which is roughly 62%. That's still quite solid, albeit a drop-off after last year.

Looking forward to seeing this thread again next year, stevsa. Thanks again for posting!

:cheers:
 
Agree, this system definitely has merit..it's how the casino makes that loot in some ways.
 
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