berryhorse tracker

Yup and I had the overall card with teams stat advantage listed as 6 wins/correct, 9 losses/incorrect and again all the losses were either dogs or essentially pick games. From looking at that sheet repeatedly its hard for me to tell when the numbers stop changing only because I checked about 5 minutes before 7 pm and at that time, the yanks were a very slight stat fav and Tb was over 6%. However, upon returning to view the sheet for the late games, the percent had switched to baltimore and TB had dropped to almost 2% only.
 
anyone know why nats are showing a 60.22%

guessing something to do with the offensive explosion last night
 
Big_Degenerate said:
I got -118

Is this guy and his followers moving lines that fast?
Click to expand...

Have to think there other models while certainly different also close enough to see value in similar numbers. Or maybe it just that group, who knows they could be betting big enough. Years back I chatted w some guys that would manipulate lines mostly in attempt to arb them.
 
I removed all previous plays from my tracking sheet and only showing games since I brought this to CTG
1-0 yesterday
4-3 overall +6.29u with his unit valuation and +1.54u for a flat bettor
Rays were first favorite selected

7582d506-01ef-4a8e-9f0c-9255798f3893.png
 
Rays are so nasty at home. Still no one respecting this team out there. Without looking, if I had to guess they're one of the more profitable teams this year. I think they are 20-4 in their last 24 at home.
 
Pick are you able to predict his plays for the most part?

Dude just swung a line 48 cents, combined with Trout being out, but still. Nuts. I could have gotten +102 when he posted it. Insane.
 
Inspekdah said:
Pick are you able to predict his plays for the most part?

Dude just swung a line 48 cents, combined with Trout being out, but still. Nuts. I could have gotten +102 when he posted it. Insane.
Click to expand...

Yea once everyone saw Trout out line just kept going .. he smacked it right when line ups are announced so we’ve got to be on it like white on rice once we commit (or don’t) to this system
 
I did tail him last night and I would on this one if the number hadn't moved so much...with models it's all about value...so I will pass here

GL to him, I appreciate the effort he shares with everyone
 
I took a small ent parlay for a qtr

Wager
  1. 8/2/2018 1:15 PM MLB Baseball 952 St. Louis Cardinals -142 vs Colorado Rockies
    A Senzatela - R Listed M Mikolas - R Listed
  2. 8/2/2018 1:10 PM MLB Baseball 966 Tampa Bay Rays -135 vs Los Angeles Angels
    A Heaney - L Listed H Wood - R Listed
Risking $25.00 To Win $49.17
 
Not sure if he changed anything on Twitter, but on the spread sheet, stat % advantage has changed to favor angels
 
He’s doing a Q&A on this Twitter right now #AskMrHorse for those of you who have questions
 
chopz33 said:
im going angels then, ill either look like an idiot or get lucky
Click to expand...
Good luck man, I’m rolling angels with you. Partly because of the change in line, partly because of avoiding the sweep, and partially because his model now gives the angels the stat advantage
 
bee172 said:
Cause line is now -135 ish versus the -107 at the time of his bet
Click to expand...
True, but Mr P wrote the advantage is with TB at -109 or better. That’s one aspect I still don’t get. Like how to see the range of odds that will keep a team at the recommended play or percent
 
T-Rex said:
Good luck man, I’m rolling angels with you. Partly because of the change in line, partly because of avoiding the sweep, and partially because his model now gives the angels the stat advantage
Click to expand...
And also due to the fact that EVERYONE is on TB, haha
 
T-Rex said:
True, but Mr P wrote the advantage is with TB at -109 or better. That’s one aspect I still don’t get. Like how to see the range of odds that will keep a team at the recommended play or percent
Click to expand...

if the rays or -109 they are 5% value...higher line it drops the value %...so at -135 there is no value
he got it at -107 so his value was a little over 5%...something like 5.32%

He's a bit dead lift guy

https://twitter.com/x/status/1025059212265582593
 
TroyStacks said:
I like +1.5 RL for underdog picks and +2.5 for the high juiced games
Click to expand...

Not looking to get into a debate but doesn't that just kill all the value? Like Royals on Saturday cashed +400 if you would have bet em +1.5 or +2.5 you just lost all the value...just my thought. Would probably have to look at percentage of games that lose by 1 or 2 I suppose...
 
aplous said:
Not looking to get into a debate but doesn't that just kill all the value? Like Royals on Saturday cashed +400 if you would have bet em +1.5 or +2.5 you just lost all the value...just my thought. Would probably have to look at percentage of games that lose by 1 or 2 I suppose...
Click to expand...

I tend to agree with this approach. when I play dogs >+225 and +1.5 is EV money or better. My play on the runline is more or less an insurance policy on my moneyline bet
 
public aint buying it, mets +148 now...66% on ATL

i would roll em, but i played bravos early so I'll stick with it
 
aplous said:
Not looking to get into a debate but doesn't that just kill all the value? Like Royals on Saturday cashed +400 if you would have bet em +1.5 or +2.5 you just lost all the value...just my thought. Would probably have to look at percentage of games that lose by 1 or 2 I suppose...
Click to expand...
Ladder bets
 
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