berryhorse tracker
- Thread starter mrpickem
- Start date
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
From reading his page the other day, how much he wagers, meaning such weird units, is also based off some aspect of his model. Probably increasing units wagered based on higher percentages of statistical edge. With the math that this guy is coming with, to me it only seems obvious that he is letting his model determine how much, or how many units is actually wagered on the game. I mean only way possible to come up with wagering 13.44 units. I still don’t really understand what part of that you don’t get or find ridiculous Johnny? This isn’t your regular handicapper that just recommends a game and a unit play. He is letting his math model and stat analysis tell you how much to bet based on the percentage advantage calculated. I also am not trying to argue with you and I get your point about how you could only be up the same amount of units if you actually bet the same way he did, but again you are talking about flat betting and this guy’s model is essentially giving you bets in like levels to a degree, based on statistical analysis rather than just his feel on a game or him personally weighting a game, which is again the reason he comes up with 13.44 units instead of simply 10 or 15. He is essentially doing no thinking and just riding what the formula tells him to do, which tells him both who to bet and how much based on the percentage of the stat analysis.
And Inspekdah, as I am new to this guy and following his system, rather than just focusing on his recommended plays, meaning the plays that go over 5% statistical advantage, I have been looking at the entire list of day games that he posts for the day and the team that his statistical edge is given to for each day. Sunday 11/15 correct and yesterday 6/9 correct. The bigger interesting aspect to me is that 6 of the 7 losses between the 2 days were dogs rather than favorites getting busted and the 7th game was essentially a pick, -110. To me that kind of successful information is huge, especially if it rings close to that accurate on a daily basis. Can you imagine getting 17/24 games right in baseball with essentially risking no added juice on huge favorites? Would absolutely crush this game.
You catch that he likes Colorado tnite? Haha
bee172
Pretty much a regular
I ain’t going lie, made me think twice about my Giants bets but I was already committed to the action and good thing I ain’t cross bet myelf. Way I see it is this, it’s either you play ALL games and decide to go with his system units or stick with a unit you’re comfortable with and ride out.
Gonna keep tracking with the rest of everyone and see how it goes.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
It’s all good and I was incorrect in my statement. I skipped over some info and thought 2 no plays were actually plays.
It’s cool, I am kind of following his stats beyond just his “recommended” plays as well for the time being. I know that wasn’t the way his system was used for, but I just wanted to point it out because even though it has only been 2 days, 17/24 correct is some pretty serious stats that we could probably all benefit from. Of course, this also caused me to allow myself to get a little OOC tnite. I am sure tnite will be the night it hits about 50% at best, haha
Mr. P, so you are just gonna continue tracking/posting on this same thread instead of posting a new thread every day then I assume?
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
ya i guess...we'll see how it goes. he may crash and burn
usually when you been that hot, you're due for bad run
I did notice he had 3 5 game losing streaks and a 5 game lose str
he had a 10 game win streak and 2 7 game streaks separated by a single loss (14-1) among other shorter streak..point being, this shit is cyclical
we'll see
That might be true, but again thats with only looking at games over the 5% threshold. I realize that is what his system is based on as a whole, but I feel like that sheet can be used as beneficial outside of just those plays. If the rest of his games hold up like they have been, and still can predict most of the winners, that can still be a useful tool for reference/guidanceI believe.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
He will crash and burn. Keep his plays coming so I can fade. Thank you
You can go to his twitter page and fade him, wise. He doesn’t hide his picks. Best of luck in your fades.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I dont wish him to lose but I've seen enough to know when someone is hyped, it never lasts. No disrespect intended.
Wise, I’m not insinuating you’re being disrespectful. I think people have every right to think this is a fluky thing and a gimmick.
I’ve never followed a single pick the guy has made so I have no idea how good long term this model is.
Honestly, it does seem like his model is running way too successfully from what we know about Math models for baseball.
So if you picked right now to fade when he’s hitting 28 games over .500 betting on average a 125 dog...simple variance to the mean may be in your favor to be honest with you.
So my content wasn’t meant as a knock...I don’t think doing the opposite of what many think is a horrible strategy...that’s all im Saying...ESPECIALLY if you feel he’s overachieved so far, which is quite reasonable to think.
I’ve never followed a single pick the guy has made so I have no idea how good long term this model is.
Honestly, it does seem like his model is running way too successfully from what we know about Math models for baseball.
So if you picked right now to fade when he’s hitting 28 games over .500 betting on average a 125 dog...simple variance to the mean may be in your favor to be honest with you.
So my content wasn’t meant as a knock...I don’t think doing the opposite of what many think is a horrible strategy...that’s all im Saying...ESPECIALLY if you feel he’s overachieved so far, which is quite reasonable to think.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
The comments on some of his twitter posts are pretty funny, obviously the guy doesn't give a fuck about who follows him or not, hell he tells people not to if they don't understand his system (I only vaguely do). That first post where he says if you can't follow it, this probably isn't for you, and that's ok is pretty solid. Honestly if I were starting a sportsbook that's exactly the kind of guy I'd pay big bucks for to line games, don't find that many of them (and let's face it, it's all computer-based these days anyway as is his)
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I'm sure he just imports it daily in case of a call up, somewhere some site is updating those stats every day
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
You would be surprised what a good programmer can automate...I'll bet over 90% of his process is automatic
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
I tailed all his picks today for $50
He did come across as very angry about this new guy and info and clearly doesn’t believe in his system, haha
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Lol. I just think everyone can easily get brain washed into someone and something unknown. This group is much better that this.
bee172
Pretty much a regular
Tbh, end of the day it’s always a gamble regardless what side we’re on. But it’s hard to follow or tail someone unless you’re all in, if you question his picks here and there and nit pick, it’s not going work. Either go for it with him or don’t. To each their own.
Like @T-Rex said, his numbers could help even if it’s a play or not for his “system” one way or another, so hopefully we can conjure something up and make $ for everyone here.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
This league stinks overall. This launch angle crap is killing the league. It's a brainwashing approach for an attempt at power numbers which = contract $$$
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Left handed hitters vs left handed pitchers is almost no contest. Ask Keith Hernandez or Will Clark or Tony Gwynn or Wad Boggs or Rod Carew or Ted Williams if they would try to pull a left handed pitcher. Its impossible but this generation is too stubborn or too ignorant. It's a very ignorant league
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
Rip Mr Padre
Selectively tailing a system capper is as good as flipping coins. Bee is exactly right. All in or not.
bee172
Pretty much a regular
In & Out!!! That’s what a hamburgers all about!! Raw onions chopped chili’s + well done fries + coke for me
Wtf are you talking about man lol
bee172
Pretty much a regular
So Cali LA thing....
So retarded that M's are only now bringing in Bradford. Beyond moronic
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