Belmont Super Saturday:
Race 5 (G1 Beldame): This one belongs to Royal Delta, I would single her on multi race tickets and probably skip the race otherwise. Interested to see how Princess of Sylmar competes against the champ, and I think after a long, hard year there just isn't gonna be enough value to try to beat RD.
Race 6 (G2 Kelso): I really wanted to go against #2 Graydar here, off a 6 month layoff, but he has run well fresh in the past and is dangerous here. The real problem with going against Graydar here is the competition. #1A Jackson and #5 Souper Speedy both are pushing there distance limits going a mile here and #4 Hymn Book probably needs another half furlong to do his best striding, those 3 have a combined 1 win in 10 tries at the distance. The other half of the entry #1 Easter Gift has been in the money all 4 attempts at 1 mile including 2 wins but is taking a step up in competition I don't think he was given any favors drawing the rail just inside of Graydar. He is coming off ideal rest for a Chad Brown trainee and this is his second race off a layoff, wouldn't be shocked but think you lose some value as part of the coupling. Last month David Jacobson took Strapping Groom a former claimer to a Grade 1 win. Here he is taking another he recently claimed, #3 Praetereo, and trying to win a Grade 2. He came up short in his two since the claim but has shown improvement at least figure wise, would need to really take another step forward to get to the wire first but can see a minor award at would should be a price.
Play: #2 over #1 and #3
Race 7 (Vosburgh): #1 Forty Tales, the late running 3yo looked a little tired in his last try and snapped his 3 race winning streak and I think that is one of the reasons why the connections opted here at 6 furlongs rather than the Kelso at 1 mile despite the mile fitting his running style better. He'll also be trying against older horses for the first time and all that adds up to me not using a horse I've liked all year. #2 Justin Phillips never threatened in his last out up at the Spa despite usually taking a liking to wet surfaces, but no one was being passed in the lane on that track on that day so maybe you can excuse that effort. Should get a nice trip sitting just behind the leaders waiting for a chance to pounce, look for a rebound effort here. #3 Bahamian Squall shipped out of Florida for the first time last month and finished a game second in the G1 Vosburgh to Justin Phillip after having to alter course in the stretch and losing ground to the eventual winner. The shoe might be on the other foot this time around as Bahamian Squall should be sitting outside of Justin Phillips this time right behind the expected leaders Strapping Groom and Private Zone. Bahamian Squall has been working like a monster down in Gulfstream and expect a big effort. #4 Strapping Groom as mentioned should be out front early and if isn't pressed is certainly capable of taking this wire to wire. I don't think that will be the case, however, as I think Private Zone is going to be putting pressure from the outside and challenge for the early lead, the cut back to 6F helps here but with some capable stalkers still think he's gonna be lucky to hold on to a minor award, look to use underneath if at all. #5 The Lumber Guy, winner of last year's edition of this race, did it off a 4 month layoff, has had a very quiet year after staying out west following the Breeders Cup and despite a nice 2nd place finish in the BC Sprint, he either didn't take to the Cali lifestyle or Drysdale's training. Was switched back to Hushion barn and got a nice prep race in up in Saratoga, has been dazzling in the morning here the last 3 weeks and calling for a bounce back upset winning effort. #8 Private Zone gave it a go in Dubai and as is usual for US shippers came up well short there. Got a nice rest before coming back earlier this month at Del Mar and winning a restricted stakes but now has to travel again, which is a move I don't get, and will be battling for the lead with Strapping Groom, which he needs, might hang on for a bottom piece of tri or super tickets.
Plays: #5 Win, #2,3,5 Ex and Tri boxes
Race 8 (Flower Bowl): The entry here is gonna be tough beat, the #1A Laughing will be the early and maybe uncontested speed while #1 Tannery will be running late and passing horses down the stretch. Laughing even if uncontested early on probably isn't going to last the 1 1/4 here but should set the pace that Tannery needs to finish this one off. Of course, there is not going to be much value to get from the entry here, but still have to include in any multi race ticket and at least underneath in vertical exotics. #2 Mystical Star has enough early foot to to sit in behind Laughing and get the early jump on the rest of the field. #3 Somali Lemonade prefers a soft turf and probably needs to run better than she has before to contend here. #6 Qushchi is probably looking for a little more distance but if Laughing sets fast enough early fractions will certainly be making a run late for a great turf barn.
Play: #2 Win, #2/1-6 Ex, #2/1-5-6 Tri
Race 9 (Hirsch Turf Classic): Another race where we are going to lose some value on some horses due the couplings. Lack of pace certainly will not be the issue of this race as there a few in here who will likely be battling for the early lead, #2X Joes Blazing Aaron has never gone further than 1 1/16 and is coming off a 5 1/2F try is clearly entered as a rabbit for the Ramsey's closers. #7 Little Mike is usually on or just off the pace, while #6 King Kreesa will also be trying for the lead. #1 Imaging has some tactical speed, but wore blinkers for the first time last out and went wire to wire, with the blinkers on again he too might get caught up in the early action. #2 Big Blue Kitten and #2B Real Solution will be closing late and can't be left out of multi race tickets, but with little value with the Ramey's 3 horse entry I will look for a couple of horses which should be a price and should get great trips behind the speed and in front of the deep closers. #4 Slumber has won 2 races since moving to Mott's barn last year and should improve 2nd off a long layoff. #3 Nutello was rank early in his last, G1 Sword Dancer, his first try in North America, he adds Lasix for the first time and a step forward put him right in the mix at a nice price.
Plays: #3,4 WPS, #3,4 Ex box, 1,2,3,4 tri box
Race 10 (Jockey's Club Gold Cup): Our first real chance to see this year's 3yo run against older horses, should a fun one. #8 Cross Traffic, the 4yo has certainly made a splash on the scene this year and after coming up just short in 2 graded stakes tries took the G1 Whitney wire to wire last month on an extremely speed favoring course upstate. Still poses as the main early spped here but I don't think this group is going to let him set too soft a fractions and he will be working throughout this one, which means I don't expect him around at the end of this one (I didn't think he would be in the Woodward either though). #6 Flat Out is going for the 3 peat of this race and just loves running at Belmont with 5 wins in 6 tries. He should be sitting a little off Cross Traffic and is capable of pressing that one early on if need be, the one to beat here. #7 Palace Malice and #5 Alpha are both versatile runners, and depending on which style they choose to run here can help determine the race. Both are capable of sitting back and making an effective move later, but I think both are run better when near the front, if one or both press Cross Traffic early it sets things up for the closers. #3 Last Gunfighter, winner of 7 of his last 8, steps up in competition here but should get a nice pace scenario regardless for his style and is the horse I like in here at a price. #1 Ron the Greek might get the fast pace he really needs to show his late kick but has been off form most of the year and will also have some company moving late in #2 Orb. I would have preferred if Orb had drawn further outside as he does his best running out in the middle of the track and not along the rail. You can certainly claim he needed the Travers after a 2 month layoff and the grueling TC run, he will have a legit pace in front of him but can he run down the likes of Flat Out?
Plays: Will include Flat Out and Last Gunfighter, probably Orb and Palace Malice underneath will finalize Saturday morning/afternoon and post.
