Its also about bowls not meaning much in general anyways. Like half the teams that have played so far hasn‘t shown up
B1G Bowl Season Discussion
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
Auburn opened the season on a short list of national title contenders and disappointed. Getting a 6-6 off brand Big Ten team is a chore for 20 year olds to prepare for, there’s no chance they give a damn. On the other end you have a team that won it’s last game to get eligible, has the motivational edge of keeping their head coach and prepping for a bowl game which is rare for that program.
Wazzu’s last game was with a PAC 12 title game berth on the line and whether it’s true or not they thought they were on the periphery of the playoff discussion too. Lose that game and get the consolation of an off brand Big 12 school that barely made a bowl game, why in the world should they care here. ISU coach staying helps too on the other sides movivation.
That’s just motivational, doesn’t even factor in that both of these dogs have better coaches that should gain schematic advantages in the first half.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I do like the ISU coach a lot and, of course, Brohm's offensive mind.
I guess I don't see why ISU would be excited about playing Wazzu when they play in a conference with up to six or seven teams with better brand recognition than Washington State. I can see Campbell scheming up and slowing down the Washington State offense if the players can follow through. But man that team has not been playing good football down the stretch. Outgained by Drake in the finale, outgained kstate by 65 or so while needing the miracle fourth quarter to beat a pretty disappointing Kstate team, got outgained by texas by 195 yards and barely reached 200 in offense, were outgained by 150 yards or so at home to baylor but luckboxed and the 359 yards passing there by Baylor is alarming too when you consider the washington state team, and out gained kansas by 62 in a walk, and before that got a little bit lucky probably in their win against Texas Tech (again the 333 yards passing allowed is a bit alarming given wazzu team). Team has been riding the reputation of that WVU game for awhile in my opinion.
Auburn has bad sense of self if they cannot get up for off brand big ten and I just think it is way too much guessing. So Auburn loses the title in Jan14 in the last 20 seconds of the game or whatever it was to FSU and then two years later they get up for Memphis in the Birmingham bowl. In 2015 they draw a big name opponent in wisconsin and get beat in the outback bowl, in 2016 they get an invite to sugar bowl against oklahoma and get whipped, and last year they played an undefeated team playing for a portion of the national title (get my vote as #1 at season end) and get beat .... seems they don't do too well in the games vs the brand names of other conferences. I am not attributing any of that to motivation but it seems like guessing their motivation would have been a ML crusher the last five seasons (Some predicted they would not be motivated against UCF. They were just out-manned).
I dunno ... I admit that I am absolutely horrible at guessing bowl motivation but to be honest with you .. other than after the fact, I don't see many people who are that good at it. You would think (or most people did that I read) Buffalo (for almost certain), Hawaii, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, MTSU, UAB, Ohio, Marshall, Army, north texas Tulane, and Fresno would have good motivation (I didn't see a skew in quantity of opinion on Memphis/Wake or FIU/Toledo though one friend thought Memphis would be one of the least motivated teams of bowl season) .. but the perceived more motivated team went 6-6. Short sample there but I could go back many years of knowing this .. I cannot tell you how many times I have texted my capping group complaining that the team we figured to be motivated was the exact opposite (ok some of that is not wanting to admit I was wrong and it is easy to make the excuse that they didn't care or were not ready instead of just not as good that day). I think situational handicapping is important and I DO think motivation is important ... I just think handicappers are absolutely awful at the motivation angle (self included .. though I am a far more math test coupled with eye test capper than motivational angle so I might be worse at it than your average guy - though I used some bowl motivational factors extremely effectively this season, errr unless it was random).
I guess I don't see why ISU would be excited about playing Wazzu when they play in a conference with up to six or seven teams with better brand recognition than Washington State. I can see Campbell scheming up and slowing down the Washington State offense if the players can follow through. But man that team has not been playing good football down the stretch. Outgained by Drake in the finale, outgained kstate by 65 or so while needing the miracle fourth quarter to beat a pretty disappointing Kstate team, got outgained by texas by 195 yards and barely reached 200 in offense, were outgained by 150 yards or so at home to baylor but luckboxed and the 359 yards passing there by Baylor is alarming too when you consider the washington state team, and out gained kansas by 62 in a walk, and before that got a little bit lucky probably in their win against Texas Tech (again the 333 yards passing allowed is a bit alarming given wazzu team). Team has been riding the reputation of that WVU game for awhile in my opinion.
Auburn has bad sense of self if they cannot get up for off brand big ten and I just think it is way too much guessing. So Auburn loses the title in Jan14 in the last 20 seconds of the game or whatever it was to FSU and then two years later they get up for Memphis in the Birmingham bowl. In 2015 they draw a big name opponent in wisconsin and get beat in the outback bowl, in 2016 they get an invite to sugar bowl against oklahoma and get whipped, and last year they played an undefeated team playing for a portion of the national title (get my vote as #1 at season end) and get beat .... seems they don't do too well in the games vs the brand names of other conferences. I am not attributing any of that to motivation but it seems like guessing their motivation would have been a ML crusher the last five seasons (Some predicted they would not be motivated against UCF. They were just out-manned).
I dunno ... I admit that I am absolutely horrible at guessing bowl motivation but to be honest with you .. other than after the fact, I don't see many people who are that good at it. You would think (or most people did that I read) Buffalo (for almost certain), Hawaii, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, MTSU, UAB, Ohio, Marshall, Army, north texas Tulane, and Fresno would have good motivation (I didn't see a skew in quantity of opinion on Memphis/Wake or FIU/Toledo though one friend thought Memphis would be one of the least motivated teams of bowl season) .. but the perceived more motivated team went 6-6. Short sample there but I could go back many years of knowing this .. I cannot tell you how many times I have texted my capping group complaining that the team we figured to be motivated was the exact opposite (ok some of that is not wanting to admit I was wrong and it is easy to make the excuse that they didn't care or were not ready instead of just not as good that day). I think situational handicapping is important and I DO think motivation is important ... I just think handicappers are absolutely awful at the motivation angle (self included .. though I am a far more math test coupled with eye test capper than motivational angle so I might be worse at it than your average guy - though I used some bowl motivational factors extremely effectively this season, errr unless it was random).
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Hope I didn't come off argumentative ... it's just the motivation thing comes up every year and I don't see it pay dividends for me or anyone else. In a specific game sure .. and it may even be because of motivation in that specific game but it just seems random or poorly done by most of us. If someone is great at it, I would like to know so that I could factor in their opinion. I have been trolling almost all the gambling sites (I am not a twitter person quite yet so behind the times) for over a decade and haven't found a single person that appears good at it. I see it used retro-actively a lot .... Auburn is disappointed they are playing ucf so when they get their butt whipped it is because they were not motivated but when Auburn plays Memphis who there is no way they could be extra motivated for (you would think) they whip the Memphis club and no one remembers. It seems when the bowl upset happens people just assume it was motivational and I am just not as on board with that.
I bet Purdue and Washington State .. so hope you split on your motivational thoughts .. but split the correct way. Like I said, respect your opinion on handicapping and hope you have a good bowl season.
I bet Purdue and Washington State .. so hope you split on your motivational thoughts .. but split the correct way. Like I said, respect your opinion on handicapping and hope you have a good bowl season.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Just to pose the question ...
If Wisconsin was AP preseason number 4 ... and Auburn was preseason number 9, then Wisconsin would have the same motivation issue that Auburn would have ... particularly when you live in Wisconsin and your reward is to go somewhere else that is cold, against a team you beat in a more important bowl last year.
Certainly Auburn would be more motivated than Wisconsin since Wisconsin started the season with even higher expectations, right?
If Wisconsin was AP preseason number 4 ... and Auburn was preseason number 9, then Wisconsin would have the same motivation issue that Auburn would have ... particularly when you live in Wisconsin and your reward is to go somewhere else that is cold, against a team you beat in a more important bowl last year.
Certainly Auburn would be more motivated than Wisconsin since Wisconsin started the season with even higher expectations, right?
So, I think this will be the final tally on guys sitting out.
Gary
Bush
Higdon
Bushell-Beatty
I am quite surprised about Long and Hill at cornerback. I am not sure what flipped here the last 7-10 days but that is a good thing moreso about 1 or maybe both coming back to school. I am actually shocked.
Gary
Bush
Higdon
Bushell-Beatty
I am quite surprised about Long and Hill at cornerback. I am not sure what flipped here the last 7-10 days but that is a good thing moreso about 1 or maybe both coming back to school. I am actually shocked.
Bookmaker Mich down to -5.5. +7.5 was clearly the ceiling
Most books holding at 6 right now.
My expectation was it would be a little lower but I also wasn't expecting Long and Hill to both play. I figured one at best.
I am happy with the number and will have plenty of options it looks like.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Y’all know I’m historically bad at picking AU games, but Gus is 1-4 in bowl games as head coach at AU, with a Birmingham Bowl win over Memphis his only triumph. It is very on brand for AU to largely disappoint when there are high expectations, just as it is when they come out of nowhere to win 11-12 games. This year’s team is the least talented they’ve had overall in years, even though there are some future NFL players on defense. Post above is correct that AU needs a win here in the worst way, but there is reportedly a power struggle going on within the AD and I’m not sure Gus is a strong enough leader to get his players focused for this game. He’s out after next year regardless of what happens in this game, outside of a playoff appearance, and i think most people feel the same way. I can’t speak to Purdue’s motivation, but I have to think they will be far happier to be there than AU.
Oregon down from +3 to +2.5 with public love still on their side
But who is 'public'?
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
Auburn plays in the SEC. Wisconsin plays in the Big Ten.
I was expecting that answer from someone.
Now, most people knew both were ranked too high to begin with...
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Think you were the one that pointed out how much more important CFB would be for Alabama's state economy than Wisconsin's which is true
EFC1878
Pretty much a regular
Another thing to note is that Wisconsin is playing a team in the same situation. Preseason No. 8, high hopes, now a rematch bowl between 7-5 teams. Purdue, on the other hand, saw bowl eligibility come down to the last day of the season and got a huge morale boost earlier this month when Brohm said he was staying, against what the rumors and conventional wisdom were. I'd imagine Purdue's practices this month were spirited and positive as they look forward to a shot at one of the big SEC names.
agreed
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
I suppose the only disagreement I have is AU being one of the bigger SEC names. They are middle of the pack. Maybe 4-5traditionally. Really depends on where you rate LSU. LSU fans would have you believe they are historically a powerhouse. Truth be told, outside the recent past, they were a bottom dweller. AU gets a pass due to their rivalry with big brother. I would rate TN historically greater. Bama and UF, then throw in UGA. I am intrigued with how the rest of the nation views the SEC pecking order. I suppose nationwide TV viewing has changed the landscape.
EFC1878
Pretty much a regular
It's certainly a malleable list. When I was in college, it would have been Florida and Tennessee well above the rest (and Nebraska was the King of Kings), Alabama, LSU and Georgia were mostly afterthoughts to me living far from SEC country at that time. But for the kids playing now, they grew up watching Cam win a title, the '14 team lose a heartbreaker in the national title game, and last year's team beat both Georgia and Alabama. So that's why I'd think it'd be a bigger deal to them.
bingo
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
The ones replacing your nfl guys who didnt play
P-Unit
Beacon of Calmness
you need to use NFL Guys in air quotes haha. Leidner was an NFL Guy too if you ask McShay.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Your best defenders (allegedly)
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
I think if one can accurately gauge the "motivation" of a team, it can be helpful, but often times it is a guessing/hypothesis game... and the only people who truly can gauge the motivation of any given team, are the players and coaches inside the locker rooms. And even then...
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I think by any metric, AU is a top 20-25 program nationally, and I'd put them in similar territory as LSU or Florida. None of the three were very relevant until the 80's for AU, the 90's for Florida and the 00's for LSU.
Perhaps he wants to stand out more with Bush sitting. No way he‘ll be 100% tho?!
He doesn't play same position. Or near it.
I know lol. I mean with less defensive talent on the field for Michigan overall he can be more noticable to nfl scouts.
Yes and no.
The scouts will notice his toughness, etc.... that is about it.
Bush being out is big but there will be plenty of talent in there still...just young and untested talent.
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