**Australian Open In Game**

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The way that I feel today compared with how I felt after losing in four sets last year [2014, to Roger Federer in the quarter-finals], I could barely move at the end of the match because I was so sore and stiff. I felt strong at the end today.”
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Murray speaking.
 
Stan hasn't played well. If the Joker was in top notch form, this SF would've ended after 3. Not a match that's reached any great heights.
 
Nope... She just doesnt have the game..... She needs to do what the other players have been doin neutralizing her at center of court with deep shots n then hittin to open court... But she a stubborn player n will do the same thing n the beast is just better
 
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Canes1 said:
Anyone think Pova can break her Serena jinx tonight?
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I'm the last person to talk up Shitpova's chances on any Slam surface other than clay, but the reason I think she has a shot (to at least take a set) is because, like Berdych's chance against Nadal after 17 straight losses, I don't believe Serena is at her best.

I think this is Serena's swansong year. She is tied with Navratilova & Evert with 18 Slam titles, while Graf has 22. Because imo she knows she's not winning another French, I think in her own mind Graf is out of her reach (she's 34 in Sept; Graf was done by 30; Evert & Navratilova lasted longer in an obv. less competitive era). So I think she'll be satisfied to end her career the top American female and, after that, break the 20 mark if she can. (The ultimate difference between her & Graf is how they did up until their 21st birthdays: Graf won 9 Slams by that age; Serena 'only' 3.) With those thoughts in mind, it's impossible to think she'll miss how huge this final is for her place in history, but the Beast's only decent win in these latter rounds came against a player [Cibulkova] who she was an absolute nightmare match-up for. I believe if Keys wasn't injured (& her leg injury was clearly a factor) she'd have at least forced a 3rd set & possibly beaten her. Muguruza showed her inexperience early in their 3rd set when 6 failed bp chances in Serena's first service game (for a potential 2-0 lead) seemed to completely kill her mentally for the rest of the set (& remember for that match Serena said she didn't start slowly, it was just that Muguruza played her off the court to win the 1st, whereas she put her losing the 1st to Svitolina largely down to her being very slow to get out of the gate).

Marrying these views of her not being convincing (which I put down to her rapidly aging) + taking advantage of making this final to cement her place in US tennis history + Shitpova showing some noticable improvement on her own service game (to this point I'm still not convinced it's just smoke & mirrors, but it's held up now through a number of matches, so...), my bet is Serena to win 2 sets to 1.


Last thought: since the start of the 4th round, all matches at my home book lined 20.5 have gone Under (5), and all matches lined 21.5 have gone Over (3). This match is lined 21.5 - I'd have expected it to be lined 20.5 given Serena's more than well known domination of Shitpova. 8 of their last 10 meetings have gone under 20.5, making the under at that number hardly the scariest of the 2 options to take, yet they're giving the easy/obvious total to bet an extra game? Doesn't smell right to me. Any Over here immediately says to me 3 sets before it does 2 game-heavy sets.
 
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Thanks for the analysis BC. Given Serena's dominance over Sugarpova, -200 is a good bargain, and we also know that Serena is a great competitor in finals. On the other hand AO is not Serena's favourite venue by far. It's an interesting ageing discussion, but very speculative I think. We need more proof of her decline, let's see today :-)
 
Wikeman said:
Thanks for the analysis BC. Given Serena's dominance over Sugarpova, -200 is a good bargain, and we also know that Serena is a great competitor in finals. On the other hand AO is not Serena's favourite venue by far. It's an interesting ageing discussion, but very speculative I think. We need more proof of her decline, let's see today :-)
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:shake: If Serena loses at all, then observable Shitpova improvements aside I think objectively speaking you'd have to figure in aging as being amongst the core reasons. I think her self-admitted slow starts to matches in this tourney is a factor intimately tied to her age/aging, and a number of times I've heard commentators say during her matches that her footwork has gone awol (just another sign to me of aging issues).

All that shit aside, hope we get a final worth watching.
 
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