Aussie Open Final

[GSlap]

I have watched every match this tournament and Djoka has steamrolled. However, so has Theim.

One of my largest plays ever is on Theim +320

This line should be +180 - +200 at it's highest. Books are hedging

 

[GSlap]

Edited post. I improperly typed +420. Meant +320

 

[GSlap]

And personally I make this line a PK

 

[PaintCrew]

Damn I hope you are correct...I’m sitting with a 27-1 Thiem future and haven’t touched it. Been debating all day what to do

 

[GSlap]

Nice. You can't really hedge it. Unless live bet. Hope you have alot on it. Peep the post I just made in other thread. I don't see Theim losing first set

 

[GSlap]

The only issue is Djoka can go line to line unlike any other in history so this could obviously go all wrong. But I see a ton of wide shots that get returned into the top of the net from Djoka tonight (if Theim is on which no reason to think he won't be)

 

[GSlap]

The big worry is a first set where Theim wins 6-4 or 6-3 depending on coin toss. 2nd set win same score. Then loses a 3rd set tiebreaker. Or say 2-6. I would consider him done unless 4th goes to TB and he lucks out

The strategy in the camp is clearly to win first and go for the kill

 

[PaintCrew]

Love it. Can’t wait as regardless I think we have a hell of a match on our hands

 

[GSlap]

The good thing for you @PaintCrew is all the idiots who are capping this on other sites based on weather and fitness lol. Gotta love it.

 

[cubsker]

Joker ain't a pick on hardcourts against anyone, esp best of 5.

 

[GSlap]

The torch will be passed tonight

 

[GSlap]

Though I don't disagree w you.

Players id line under -150 vs joka on hard courts (5 set):

Wawa
Kyrgios
Theim
Rublev


Maybe Zverev

 

[cubsker]

That's insane.

 

[GSlap]

K

 

[GSlap]

Keep in mind I'm not a shop, I'm making these lines on a H2H matchup so I can bet it accordingly

 

[twinkie13]

Though I don't disagree w you.

Players id line under -150 vs joka on hard courts (5 set):

Wawa
Kyrgios
Theim
Rublev


Maybe Zverev

-150 against some of these guys?
Here and now?

 

[GSlap]

WHO THE HELL HAS DJOKA BEATEN IN THE LAST 6 MONTHS THAT'S IMPRESSIVE

-Francesa voice

 

[GSlap]

-150 against some of these guys?
Here and now?

5 sets yes nowadays. I get it sounds dumb but I cap my tennis completely different than a shop does.

 

[GSlap]

Oh well, we'll see in 6 hours

 

[GSlap]

And Twink I know he HAS to be -400, that's where the value comes from tho

 

[HUNT]

Love you slap but joker at pk. No. Just, no.

 

[Big daddy naught]

Djokovic is a known quantity in GS finals, Thiem is not. Will not be shocked if it’s a close match, but don’t see Thiem taking 3 sets on hc from Novak, but never know, that’s why they play the matches. I’ve got nothing invested on this so just hoping it’s entertain

 

[GSlap]

Sure has been a PK so far

 

[GSlap]

This 5th has been unreal. 4th was too

 

[GSlap]

 

[jedi ninja]

Nice. You can't really hedge it. Unless live bet. Hope you have alot on it. Peep the post I just made in other thread. I don't see Theim losing first set

I know this is after the fact, but curious as to why you thought he couldn’t hedge. With a 27-1 he basically had to hedge, even if Joker was -400. It would then have been break even or win 23 units.

 

[GSlap]

I've never hedged a future before, I may have mis worded it but basically meant he had a great # on his hands

 

[GSlap]

That said I do get 23 or free play. Makes sense if he was desperate to atleast break even and free roll

 

[HUNT]

Thiem gets it on clay.

Good pick man. Definitely closer than I thought it would be. Anyone else would have lost. Joker on another level. Personally think he catches fed and easily can get to 25+ slams if he stays healthy. Rafa lucky he has clay and is healthy when those guys aren't.