anyone want to talk football right now ?
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I think the open (57 or whatever it was) was way too high for this one, as I expected something a few points lower at least. I see this being in the 28-24 range or maybe 27-21 based on the line, so I was kinda surprised to see it open so high (dropped a point or so since open I think).
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Michigan now -3 at Pinny. If it hits 3 at The Greek, may have to consider biting the bullet and playing it at 2.5 120 as that would be pretty tempting to pass up.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Hoping USC hits 18 as I may have to play it if it gets there. Still not back up at the greek though. 19 and 19.5 at 5D, BM, Pinny.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i am sweating out a two hundred dollar speculation on that game. good news is that it looks more and more like sanchez will play.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
USC v UVA I expect around 47 or so, something like 33-14 based on the line. I think USC can win this one pretty easily as long as they don't turn the ball over, and I am not convinced UVA can score more than a fluke or garbage score, so I wouldn't be surprised if it was something like 28-0 or 31-7.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I know WKU can score, but this one is anyone's guess as I haven't looked into this game for one second. Maybe 41-20, but that sounds kinda high so maybe more like 37-16 or 38-17 for a total around 53 to 55?
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
I haven't looked into it either, but I figure it could be one where the linesmakers make a mistake considering they have little to no feel for WKU.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
Hey CB, give it to me straight and honest. Do I have a shot at seeing Rice -3 (with -110) or are those gone, never to return, at this point?
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
I'm not getting the love for Rice -3. OK, in a way I sort of do, but laying points on Rice just creates such a physical reaction.
That game to me could go either way and is way too much of a tossup. Rice could play a phenomenal game and have the best team in a decade but could still give up 35+ pts. Without seeing them in action in at least one game, I'm reluctant to believe that they'll cover the spread if they give up that much.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I think Rice will hit 4 before it hits 3, similar to how Miami Ohio line has been moving over the last week, as that one is now solid 4's across the board.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
For me it comes down to taking the experienced team at home, with an established QB playing a team with a new starting QB and new scheme. I expect both teams to score, but I think Clement has a breakout year this year, starting with 400+ against SMU. Rice is a more balanced, more polished team in my opinion, and while getting June Jones will be a good move for SMU in the long term, he is not Helen Keller (she was in The Miracle Worker for all you uncultured guys out there haha).
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
sure that i have mentioned it before but you want to be absolutely sure that you have good weather if you are playing rice ... because if it becomes a battle of running games in a heavy rain or wind , smu will win.
and it is part of the rainy season in houston this time of year.
and it is part of the rainy season in houston this time of year.
Houghton Chemical
Pretty much a regular
I agree, CB, Rice is the more experienced team, and has added benefit of gelling with teammates and coaches. But Jones, upon inheriting that von Appen Hawaii team, turned the ship around real quick. They got blown out at home against USC, but won games many thought they wouldn't and landed in a bowl. I'm not suggesting that's going to play out here, but if SMU is going to beat anyone Rice could be a jumpoff point.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I think i found a great spot to bet temple against army but ...... i have to hold my nose doing it because layingpoints with teams like temple is painful. that is how i feel about rice , only i dont see nearly the edge on the field that i do with temple.
smu wont be able to stop clement to dillard though.
smu wont be able to stop clement to dillard though.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I liked Temple also but the line got out of control with that one. I actually like my Rice 2.5 better than Temple 6 to 7.5 which is what many got (the 4.5 line that others got is solid). I just think laying less than a FG at home with a bad team is preferred to lay a TD on the road with a bad team. I know Temple is supposed to be better, and Army is horrible, but just can't justify laying that many pts with an unproven team like Temple. Will take my chances just needing Rice to basically win SU at home against an inferior opponent.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
yeah there is a 6 point swing in homefields that has to be accounted for no doubt.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I think the biggest difference is that Jones inherited a senior QB to run his offense so he had some experience and leadership to help him with the turnaround in year 1. At SMU he will be relying not on Willis, but on 2 new guys to lead the charge, so I think it will take them a couple years to right this ship, as the young QBs are gonna have some growing pains early on this season IMO.
Houghton Chemical
Pretty much a regular
Very true, very true.
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
CB, Cal now down to 4. Good thing.
Riley starting. Good thing.
Thoughts...
Riley starting. Good thing.
Thoughts...
O
O-State
Guest
I keep changing my opinion on picks after doing some research.
MSU I liked given their record as a road dog, big running attack, toughness; until I just saw against BG, Northwestern, and Purdue, basically the only teams with a serious passing attacks on their schedule, they were HORRENDOUS. Cal even with new skill guys that Tedford offense is still going to be dynamic.
Okie State was as close as a lock for me, them and Tennessee. Now it is only Tennessee. I am envisioning this Okie State game more as a high scoring shootout. WSU scheme wise will not change much, they will just be more potent. OKie state was like MSU vs. the pass last year. Wulff I love what I am hearing of this guy, WSU really not losing many guys, and new qb is a senior Wulff loves him.
This game is Wazzou crowd, they thrive in that environment and you know what WSU was outgained by only 4 yards last year but lacked toughness. Wulff brings that in spades. Okie State hasn't proved anything and I'm not letting that IU game be the lasting impression. I love Beckman and sure they will be somewhat better in the backend but still, and actually they lose 3 solid Dlineman so that could be a concern.
---The OVER might be the play in this one.
MSU I liked given their record as a road dog, big running attack, toughness; until I just saw against BG, Northwestern, and Purdue, basically the only teams with a serious passing attacks on their schedule, they were HORRENDOUS. Cal even with new skill guys that Tedford offense is still going to be dynamic.
Okie State was as close as a lock for me, them and Tennessee. Now it is only Tennessee. I am envisioning this Okie State game more as a high scoring shootout. WSU scheme wise will not change much, they will just be more potent. OKie state was like MSU vs. the pass last year. Wulff I love what I am hearing of this guy, WSU really not losing many guys, and new qb is a senior Wulff loves him.
This game is Wazzou crowd, they thrive in that environment and you know what WSU was outgained by only 4 yards last year but lacked toughness. Wulff brings that in spades. Okie State hasn't proved anything and I'm not letting that IU game be the lasting impression. I love Beckman and sure they will be somewhat better in the backend but still, and actually they lose 3 solid Dlineman so that could be a concern.
---The OVER might be the play in this one.
Texas starting 2 freshmen in secondary
On the challenge that Florida Atlantic will give the young safeties: It's hard to test them like they're going to be tested with that noise and with a bunch that's as good at throwing the ball as Florida Atlantic. We're probably really lucky that we're going to have to be ready to play in the opening game, and we're going to have to play well because they're going to throw the ball. In watching the film, their quarterback's a great player, he's not a good player, and their skill guys are really good, and they've got an older group of offensive linemen, so they'll move the ball against anybody they play this year. That's why those safeties are going to have to come out being good, they're going to have to play older than they are.
On the challenge that Florida Atlantic will give the young safeties: It's hard to test them like they're going to be tested with that noise and with a bunch that's as good at throwing the ball as Florida Atlantic. We're probably really lucky that we're going to have to be ready to play in the opening game, and we're going to have to play well because they're going to throw the ball. In watching the film, their quarterback's a great player, he's not a good player, and their skill guys are really good, and they've got an older group of offensive linemen, so they'll move the ball against anybody they play this year. That's why those safeties are going to have to come out being good, they're going to have to play older than they are.
On how early they will begin preparing for Florida Atlantic: We started Monday. They've got our attention. We feel like it's going to be a test for us because our concerns have been our pass defense over the last two years, and that's what they do best. I haven't gone back and studied it, but this will be as a good an opening day opponent as we've had.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
i'll be on about 10pm pacific, if you're around vk. (remember u being a night owl too.)
as for the utah/mich under, i know BAR really liked it as well. we were hoping for mid 40s last night...but got low 40s this morning. still worth it, imho...all the way to 40.
as for the utah/mich under, i know BAR really liked it as well. we were hoping for mid 40s last night...but got low 40s this morning. still worth it, imho...all the way to 40.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i sort of had it at 43 ... so not betting it ... and i had already decided that i dont have a clue what michigan brings offensively for this one and that scares me.
be cheering for the under though .. i sort of pimped it ...going all the way back to before spring. i hate needing college games to finish in the thirties, though
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
Yeah, these games seem exceptionally well-lined to me to. I feel that way because there are about 5-10 that I really want to pull the trigger on, but only one that I actually have so far.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Agree. Tight already?
yeah, it is to me at least...vegas did their homework..no gimmes that just stuck right out at me.
JPicks
Pretty much a regular
Agree completely on the lines. May end up passing on week 1.
I will say that if you're salivating on the over and I'm salivating at the over I should be playing it. It would as difficult to do as laying points with Vegas, but I may have to do it. Sure is tempting.
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