anyone want to talk football right now ?

based on the line i dont see how florida could be under 50 on posted TT. Have to assume hawaii gets 17 atleast.

52-17 from the linesmakers ?? 69 total ?
 
amazing the difference in confidence i have with predicting openers for totals as compared to sides. wow.
 
I was thinking 52-17 or 55-20 for Florida based on the line and 52-14 for Kansas.

UF TT somewhere around 53.5?
KU TT somewhere around 52.5?
 
I wouldn't be shocked with a 49 on Florida. Florida hasn't beaten Miami, FL in awhile and I'm sure they'll pull off the dogs early. But not my arena.
 
vegaskyle said:
based on the line i dont see how florida could be under 50 on posted TT. Have to assume hawaii gets 17 atleast.

52-17 from the linesmakers ?? 69 total ?
Click to expand...


Was hoping for a 49-14, 63 total, so I could get under 50, but don't think it is happening. Once we get game totals, obviously it will be easy to figure out.
 
JPicks said:
I wouldn't be shocked with a 49 on Florida. Florida hasn't beaten Miami, FL in awhile and I'm sure they'll pull off the dogs early. But not my arena.
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I think Florida will be in the 50's b/c didn't they score like 55 or something like three or four times last year?
 
I suppose I had the same logic as CB there and was thinking best case scenario for a Florida total being low. Books SHOULD put it at 53.5 as I doubt anybody will be running to the window to bet the TT under.
 
i feel liek i am back in school and get called on by the teacher and i am just kind of not sure that i am answering right .... answer with a ? at the end
 
vegaskyle said:
ku should be under 50 ....

46-9 ? 55 total ?
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I think it will shade higher because of the 55-3 from LY and b/c KU scored over 51 something like 5 or 6 times last year if I remember correctly. People will be looking to jump on the over at anything under 50 I would guess. I think they get 52 to 55 points in this one (52-14 or 55-17 type of game) so that is why I am hoping for a 49 or less.
 
carolinablue said:
I think Florida will be in the 50's b/c didn't they score like 55 or something like three or four times last year?
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yeah it could be higher.

maybe my bias of thinking meyer protects his players is making me think lower. i know i am betting hawaii in that game.
 
That Florida TT should be directly tied to Hawaii's offense performance. UM doesn't pull starters up 28.

LY

49-3
59-31
59-20
49-22
51-31
59-20

If Hawaii gets to 17 you can count on the Gators getting to 52.
 
carolinablue said:
I think it will shade higher because of the 55-3 from LY and b/c KU scored over 51 something like 5 or 6 times last year if I remember correctly. People will be looking to jump on the over at anything under 50 I would guess. I think they get 52 to 55 points in this one (52-14 or 55-17 type of game) so that is why I am hoping for a 49 or less.
Click to expand...


they are going to give up more first downs than last year to bad teams though. fiu should still struggle to score but kansas wont get the same field position. Talib hid a lot of problems for that defense.
 
JPicks said:
I suppose I had the same logic as CB there and was thinking best case scenario for a Florida total being low. Books SHOULD put it at 53.5 as I doubt anybody will be running to the window to bet the TT under.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I would probably put Florida and Kansas both around 54, because I just don't see many people who would be jump on the under at those numbers, but they would also keep a mass stampede from herding towards the over as well. Not even sure if people really even play team totals much, as I never really did until I joined the Greek.
 
JPicks said:
That Florida TT should be directly tied to Hawaii's offense performance. UM doesn't pull starters up 28.

LY

49-3
59-31
59-20
49-22
51-31
59-20

If Hawaii gets to 17 you can count on the Gators getting to 52.
Click to expand...


Meyer has never had an offseason like this one. they had the worst spring/fall of any team other than louisville i think. He should be protecting tebow.
 
also tebow being banged up hurt them hard at end of last year , that has to weigh on him .. remember the georgia and michigan games
 
Also i think i bet agaisnt kansas three times last year and they beat me all three , so i am probably underestimating them again.
 
vegaskyle said:
they are going to give up more first downs than last year to bad teams though. fiu should still struggle to score but kansas wont get the same field position. Talib hid a lot of problems for that defense.
Click to expand...

I think KU is gonna get a lot of big plays early (both running and passing) in this one and the FIU defense will start taking risks and KU is gonna pound them into submission on the ground and with the play action. FIU's spread offense is gonna take a while to gel, so I think KU will look a lot better than advertised in this one, as FIU will see a lot of 3 and outs IMO. Definitely like the team total a little more than the spread though, as this one has backdoor all over it.
 
vegaskyle said:
Also i think i bet agaisnt kansas three times last year and they beat me all three , so i am probably underestimating them again.
Click to expand...

I loved Kansas overs and big spreads LY almost as much as I loved Louisville overs and big spreads a few years back. Got lucky jumping on them early and then didn't want to jinx myself by hyping either up too much as I felt like the cat who ate the canary haha. Man, both teams had such money runs it was insane.
 
carolinablue said:
I think KU is gonna get a lot of big plays early (both running and passing) in this one and the FIU defense will start taking risks and KU is gonna pound them into submission on the ground and with the play action. FIU's spread offense is gonna take a while to gel, so I think KU will look a lot better than advertised in this one, as FIU will see a lot of 3 and outs IMO. Definitely like the team total a little more than the spread though, as this one has backdoor all over it.
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cannot argue against you on that other than i am pretty confident that fiu is improved from last year on both sides of the ball and kansas is not. i made a whole thread about how i dont know shit about ku and ksu though.... so wtf ... i dunno.
 
vegaskyle said:
Meyer has never had an offseason like this one. they had the worst spring/fall of any team other than louisville i think. He should be protecting tebow.
Click to expand...


True, but I think that affects the actual total and spread more than the TT. I'm sure the backup QB's are all 5 star recruits and will tear up the Hawaii secondary as well.

Either way I'm out of my league now so I'm back to the week one thread.
 
KSU v NT is another interesting one that should see a lot of points scored. I am hoping for low 60's but thinking it might be more low 70's, something like 48-24 for a 72 total, mainly b/c neither defense will be able to contain the other. Thoughts?
 
JPicks said:
True, but I think that affects the actual total and spread more than the TT. I'm sure the backup QB's are all 5 star recruits and will tear up the Hawaii secondary as well.

Either way I'm out of my league now so I'm back to the week one thread.
Click to expand...


no bailing .. though i cant wait to read week 1 thread hehe.
 
carolinablue said:
KSU v NT is another interesting one that should see a lot of points scored. I am hoping for low 60's but thinking it might be more low 70's, something like 48-24 for a 72 total, mainly b/c neither defense will be able to contain the other. Thoughts?
Click to expand...


thinking similar there.i thought 47-23 ... so we are right on pretty much.
 
Rice v SMU opened at 74.5 I think, so I don't see this one opening higher than that, b/c from a perception standpoint at least, that one should be the highest week 1 total on the board I would think. Last I checked it was bet down to 73. I kinda figure it could end up 43-40, who knows.
 
carolinablue said:
Rice v SMU opened at 74.5 I think, so I don't see this one opening higher than that, b/c from a perception standpoint at least, that one should be the highest week 1 total on the board I would think. Last I checked it was bet down to 73. I kinda figure it could end up 43-40, who knows.
Click to expand...


i think this is a good observation .. would be a little shocked if smu rice wasnt the highest total on the board too.
 
FAU v Texas is another over I am waiting to see the open on. Kinda wished I would have taken FAU at 24 when I had the chance, but completely missed the boat on the line move, so now just gonna root for Texas to tear em apart. Thinking this one would open around 68 or so, as FAU will score some points on that secondary (maybe 45-23?). Hoping to get around 60 (41-19) as I would probably take the over at that number, but not sure.
 
again .. i got booty raped on my total bets last year. didnt make a lot of them but when i did i bled.
 
Rice vs SMU is one of those games that could easily end up in OT with a crazy 55-52 final or something, so I am not touching that total at all.
 
carolinablue said:
FAU v Texas is another over I am waiting to see the open on. Kinda wished I would have taken FAU at 24 when I had the chance, but completely missed the boat on the line move, so now just gonna root for Texas to tear em apart. Thinking this one would open around 68 or so, as FAU will score some points on that secondary (maybe 45-23?). Hoping to get around 60 (41-19) as I would probably take the over at that number, but not sure.
Click to expand...


I thought schnellenberger was going to put three hats on all the wr after they catch the little dink passes ......
 
vegaskyle said:
the certainties of the rice defensive side is why
Click to expand...

Even so. Can't in good conscience bet the over with a new SMU QB. This total screams "OMG! June Jones coaches one of these teams! Automatic Shootout!" Might be true, but time will tell.
 
The only totals I am seriously considering are the KU and UF team totals. I play straight bets all at the same amount, so I am very selective on totals since I am not as solid on them as I am with the sides. I usually only play 5 or fewer totals a year if that, and last year I think all of them were either KU and Hawaii games haha.
 
NIU v Minny I am thinking something like 34-27 or 35-28 for a total of 61- 63 or so. Minny's defense should be improved so this might be a little high, but most will probably be thinking shootout in the dome, so they will still probably see strong action on the over even if it is above 60.
 
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