ALL ABOARD the lindetrain - Week 5

L

lindetrain

Pretty much a regular
Week 4: 9-4, +6.06 units
YTD: 28-20-1, +8.72 units

One hell of a week...could've been a lot better as I fell just short of a BIG payout on the Ball State ML, hit 4 of 5 dogs on a ML parlay, and got fucked twice with Colorado State and Oregon State. I did catch a couple breaks with Oklahoma State and Toledo, so I can't really complain.

Onto Week 5...

Southern Miss (+10) at Boise State
Memphis (+2.5) at Arkansas State
West Virginia (-7.5) at South Florida
Duke (+21.5) at Miami
North Carolina (+20) at Virginia Tech
Akron (+14.5) at Connecticut
Indiana (+13) at Iowa
Mississippi State (+17.5) at South Carolina
Temple (+0.5) at Army
Air Force (+3.5) at Navy
Buffalo (+10.5) at Ball State
Northern Illinois (+1) at Central Michigan
Michigan (-16) at Northwestern
Syracuse (-1.5) at Miami OH
Utah State (+19) at Utah
California (+4.5) at Oregon
Alabama (-0.5) vs. Florida State
Ole Miss (+20) at Georgia
Auburn (+16.5) at Florida
Penn State (-3) at Illinois
Michigan State (+9) at Wisconsin
Iowa State (+17.5) at Nebraska
Kansas State (+15) at Texas
UNLV (+4.5) at Nevada
UTEP (-1.5) at SMU
Hawaii (-17.5) at Idaho
LSU (-34) at Tulane
Colorado State (+6.5) at TCU
Eastern Michigan (+19) at Vanderbilt
Western Michigan (+6) at Toledo
Kent State (+3.5) at Ohio
Oklahoma (-21.5) at Colorado
Baylor (+15.5) at Texas A&M
Pittsburgh (+8) at Virginia
East Carolina (+9) at Houston
UAB (+17) at Tulsa
Louisville (-8) at NC State
Clemson (-1.5) at Georgia Tech
Maryland (+13) at Rutgers
Ohio State (-19) at Minnesota
USC (-17) at Washington
Notre Dame (+21.5) at Purdue
BYU (+2) at New Mexico
Washington State (+1) at Arizona
Arizona State (-13) at Stanford
Cincinnati (-9) at San Diego State
North Texas (+28) at Arkansas
Louisiana Tech (+12) at Fresno State
UL Lafayette (+17.5) at Central Florida
Florida International (+6) at Middle Tennessee
Florida Atlantic (+20.5) at Kentucky
UL Monroe (+6.5) at Troy
 
Temple +7 (-115)

This line is just ridiculous to me...if I could've gotten it at the opening line it would've been my first 2-unit bet of the year. This is not the same Owl team as last year, as they continue to prove every week. Army has not shown me much at all so far and I don't think they should be laying more than a FG, if that, here...
 
Dmoney416 said:
Again, congrats on a great week last week. You have me thinking about the Buffalo Bulls now, too.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm really liking that one at first glance...I'm not seeing a whole lot else I'm interested in right now though. There were so many juicy dogs last week, I loved it...
 
How can Ball St be mentally ready for this game? They were a missed field goal away from a HUGE win over Nebraska on the road. Anyone feel like telling me how they did the next week after Michigan last yr? I am stuck at this shithole called work
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
How can Ball St be mentally ready for this game? They were a missed field goal away from a HUGE win over Nebraska on the road. Anyone feel like telling me how they did the next week after Michigan last yr? I am stuck at this shithole called work
Click to expand...

They actually won @Toledo 20-17 as 4 point dogs. They also lost outright to North Dakota St after covering @Purdue though.
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
How can Ball St be mentally ready for this game? They were a missed field goal away from a HUGE win over Nebraska on the road. Anyone feel like telling me how they did the next week after Michigan last yr? I am stuck at this shithole called work
Click to expand...

It's almost scary how you said the exact same thing as me relating to that game.

The difference between the Michigan game last year and the Nebraska game this year is that Ball State was never winning that game by 2 scores, and didn't blow numerous opportunities to win the game. They simply competed and gave them a scare, which is more of a confidence builder than heart breaker like that loss in Lincoln.
 
Initial thoughts:

Arkansas State looks appealing. They're playing extremely well right now, and Memphis is just embarrassing themselves. This game definitely has to mean a lot to the boys from the SBC who would probably like to earn a little respect and catch some people's eyes with a big win over a C-USA school.

Duke is really starting to come around, nearly winning two weeks in a row (scary). They go down to Miami and face a team they almost beat last year, who might take them a little lightly considering they just whipped up on A&M and it is Duke. Could the Blue Devils be joining Temple alongside the cover machines this year?

Akron looks interesting in what is a pretty bad spot for UConn. They play hard and have actually looked pretty good lately. It's impressive how they beat Kent State when looking at the stats they probably should've lost.

I'm going to be on Buffalo as I mentioned. How is Ball State mentally prepared for this game? They blew numerous opportunities to pick up their biggest win in school history last week. How does that not eat at them? That defense is horrendous, so catching a couple scores with a team who has proven they can put up some points looks good. And it's the MAC.

A lot of people have taken note of Alabama potentially being worn out for this Florida State game, but I really think they're the better team and unlike FSU have been able to really find their identity. The Noles have only played 3 games and have been unimpressive in all 3, so I have to wonder if they have really found themselves - a bye week is not what I think they needed after a couple lackluster performances. There are also some distractions for FSU with two guys getting arrested, including a starting LB in Hayes. This is just a case where Alabama has actually played a few tough games and knows how to win/compete, where Florida State has been in sleep mode for almost a month. I'm not sure if everyone would agree with me, but I'll take Saban in this matchup as well.

Auburn is now getting to the point where they become a good bet. Got some confidence last week, and now play the Gators who have the big LSU showdown on deck. Can they keep it close? This one is on my radar.

I think Illinois probably beats Penn State after PSU's Big 10 hopes pretty much got shattered last week. Big game for that Illinois program and they have the players to win this one.

Baylor should keep it close in College Station, like they usually do. They've reeled off 3 straight and as always, are best early on in the year. You have to think they're playing with some confidence and Syzmanski is coming around. I wonder how A&M feels about this game (and season) after getting thrashed last week. Really early start too (11:30 local time) which I personally don't think bodes well for the big fave.

Georgia Tech is going to beat Clemson with or without Choice IMO. The Tigers have a big showdown with Va Tech on deck and probably think they've got this game considering they're rolling and the Jackets are struggling. I expect Bowden's bunch to take this game very lightly and the desperate GT team goes out and stops the bleeding.
 
Southern Miss +10 (+100)

I think it's becoming pretty evident this Boise State team doesn't compare to the last few years, as they really struggled against Washington and weren't overwhelming against Wyoming. This may be the best team they've faced yet, and with them being at home I think they're liable to underestimate the difficulty of this game. I think Southern Miss is definitely the best team in the C-USA (impressive road win last week), and this could be a nice showcase for them. Fletcher should have some success on the ground.
 
lindetrain, I have BU +16.5 (large)

atm is BU's Superbowl. Also, Guy Morris absolutely hates Fraudphoney.

Games have been real close the last 3 years:

2006 31-21 atm
2005 16-13 atm (OT)
2004 35-34 Baylor (OT)

11:30 start, hot, humid = Shitty crowd turnout this Sat at Deaddogfield, and a team that doesn't have the best moral right now, with a coach on the hot seat.

If BU gets a couple of quick early scores, and McGee has to throw the ball (12th in the BIG 12 in all QB stats) it could get ugly.

I would not be surprised if BU won this game!
 
Good points royalewithcheese...I definitely think Baylor has a shot as well.

I got the pleasure of talking to Morriss and his wife a couple times while he was at UK, because he lived in my neighborhood and his daughters went to middle school with me. Seemed like a great guy...just walked into a bad situation and now has to watch the school he used to coach rise to national prominence.
 
Boise State fan so I hate to see your So. Miss +10 line here, but I do think you're on the right side. The loss at Washington was one of the worst efforts put out by this team in a long time. One thing to remember, the Wyoming team Boise State beat by 10 has a very stingy defense and beat Virginia by 20 to open the year...they deserve a little respect. Going back to a previous post of mine not far back, Boise State hasn't won by less than 7, I believe, over the last 3 years at home during the regular season. B.S.U. has the potential to light it up and they LOVE espn.

I recognize the talent of So. Miss though enough to make this a no play for me...
 
South Carolina -13.5 (+100)

Very rarely do I find value in favorites according to my power ratings, but I do here...
 
lindetrain said:
South Carolina -13.5 (+100)

Very rarely do I find value in favorites according to my power ratings, but I do here...
Click to expand...

I liked this side as well until the Brinkley injury. How much (if any) would that injury change your projected line of 17.5?
 
I do not know yet. Once I start to see a noticeable difference in how this team starts to play without him, I will make the adjustment.

If anything, I think there are a lot of concerns in Columbia right now and they really need this game to get things on the right track.
 
I got a little free play with my player points at BetUS...so what the hell, let's add a little pleaser action. (I will always document every play I make, because I want my actualy +/- units to be the same as posted)

Southern Miss +4.5 & Temple PK - 0.25 units to win 1.5 units
Baylor +11 & Idaho +19 - 0.25 units to win 1.5 units
Southern Miss +4.5 & Baylor +11 - 0.5 units to win 3 units
 
Illinois +3 (+100)
Wisconsin -7 (-120)
Georgia Tech +3
Florida International +12 (-101)

That should just about do it...here's what I've got:

Southern Miss +10 (+100)
Temple +7 (-115)
Buffalo +16
South Carolina -13.5 (+100)
Baylor +17
Georgia Tech +3
Illinois +3 (+100)
Florida International +12 (-101)
Wisconsin -7 (-120)

And...

Southern Miss +4.5 & Temple PK - 0.25 units to win 1.5 units
Baylor +11 & Idaho +19 - 0.25 units to win 1.5 units
Southern Miss +4.5 & Baylor +11 - 0.5 units to win 3 units
 
Last edited:
Forgot one:

Sam Houston State +28 (-115) - full unit

After all the I-AA money I've missed out on this year, I better hit this...
 
Quick typo - you have Buffalo at -16

Looks good though - any thought on the Stanford Cardinal as home dogs? I have been tempted to play this one all week.
 
Lindetrain , I have been looking at FIU all week but been unable to bet it (insert grow some balls icon here ). Was wondering if you could give me your thoughts on that one as I see you DID bet it. Best of luck this week and sorry to hear about the screwjob you are taking from the book on the lines.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Quick typo - you have Buffalo at -16

Looks good though - any thought on the Stanford Cardinal as home dogs? I have been tempted to play this one all week.
Click to expand...

+16 or -16...I like it either way, haha.

I don't like Stanford simply because there is not that surprise element for Arizona State like I was hoping for. The Sun Devils have two very winnable games that can push them to 6-0 in the next two weeks, so I highly doubt they look past this one. I think they want to get out to a strong start, and prove they're one of the elite teams in the Pac 10 (even though they're not).

If ASU had UCLA, Oregon, Cal, or USC on deck, I would like Stanford. But knowing ASU will probably be fully focused on this game, I can't endorse it.
 
vegaskyle said:
Lindetrain , I have been looking at FIU all week but been unable to bet it (insert grow some balls icon here ). Was wondering if you could give me your thoughts on that one as I see you DID bet it. Best of luck this week and sorry to hear about the screwjob you are taking from the book on the lines.
Click to expand...

I feel like FIU is a lot better than their scores have shown, and they actually hung with Miami a few weeks ago. They seem scrappy if you ask me, and I think they're good enough to hang with these teams in conference play. Do you realize how long it's been since this team won a game? They have that motivation every week to go out there and compete and try to finally get a W. MTSU is playing horrible, and just look at their injuries - they're not healthy. Their backup is starting because Craddock is hurt, which definitely looks like a plus to me.

Also, FIU lost this game 7-6 last year to an eventual bowl team (at MTSU last year as well), so I feel like they go into this game knowing they can compete with this team.
 
Gracias for the FIU thoughts .... definitely back on my radar now that I have seen you bet it and see the spot similarly to me.
 
linde -

jackson for Idaho is definitely out? saw reply on covers......

we had an Idaho sports commentator or Hawaii radio this morning and I was under the impression he was playing........
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 width=540 bgColor=#cccccc><TBODY><TR><TD class=data1left width=50>09/26/07</TD><TD class=data1left width=25>RB</TD><TD class=data1left width=100>Deonte Jackson</TD><TD class=data1left width=110>Ankle</TD><TD class=data1left>downgraded to doubtful.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Not definitely out, but getting downgraded to doubtful on a Wednesday is not good...
 
lindetrain,

regarding the Stanford game, I think it should also be noted that RB Toby Gerhart will still be out for this game...Kimble's a nice little back and all, but he's nothing like Gerhart...
 
Removing:

Illinois +3

Not feeling this one at all anymore...given it some thought and I think Penn State gets back on track. I do think Illinois has that season-defining upset win sometime, just not here...
 
Eastern Michigan +22 (-104)
Minnesota +24
Oregon State -2.5 (-102)

Final card for Saturday:

Temple +7 (-115)
Buffalo +16
South Carolina -13.5 (+100)
Baylor +17
Georgia Tech +3
Illinois +3 (+100)
Florida International +12 (-101)
Wisconsin -7 (-120)
Sam Houston State +28 (-115)
Idaho +25 (-108)
Eastern Michigan +22 (-104)
Minnesota +24
Oregon State -2.5 (-102)
 
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