Alfred dunhill links championship

DJS123

DJS123

Well-Known Member
2013 ALFRED DUNHILL LINKS CHAMPIONSHIP​

Welcome everyone to this year’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. This event has been played since 2001 and is one of the most prestigious events of the year on the European Tour. This is a unique tournament, a pro am held over three different courses. The Old Course at St. Andrews will be the feature course, the course used for the final round to decide the winner. Carnoustie and Kingsbarns will also be used over the first three days.
Similar format to the AT&T pro am held annually at Pebble Beach. We will see 168 pros and 168 amateurs play two different competitions. A two man team event with one pro and one amateur as well as the individual event. After the first three days the field will be cut to the top 60(plus ties) pros and top 20 pro am teams. They will go back to the ‘Home of Golf’, the legendary Old Course to decide the winners and chop up $5M in prize money.
All of these courses are great links tracks but none more special than St. Andrews. The course actually dates back to the 1400’s and is most definitely the home of golf. With all links golf a lot of what happens is determined by the wind. At the time of this writing the weather looks pretty good. Only minimal rain expected on Saturday and 15-20km of wind throughout the week. Last year Branden Grace got the win at -22, in ‘11 Michael Hoey also finished at -22. This tells us we’ll have a bit of a “birdie fest”.
Some of the key things to look at this week will be scoring and birdie average along with scrambling, sand save %, the large double greens will have us look at putting numbers as well. Of course, tournament, course and current form will be important with the relevant history of this event.
The PGA & LPGA are taking a short break having us focus on this event this week. Should be a good one with all of Europe’s top names teeing it up including Els, Schwartzel, Oosthuizen and defending champ Grace along with many others. Let’s get to some plays!$!


TO WIN

**Top Play**

*Martin Kaymer 20/1

~MK has had a good history at this event, has played it five times since 2007 got the win in ‘10 and T7 at the British Open the same year. Has not finished worse than T34 which came last year and also T2 in ‘08. Has quietly had a decent season making 19/22 cuts worldwide with six top 10’s. I think he’ll be happy to come back to an event where he’s had some success and his game fits this tournament well. Kaymer is a solid, patient player who can make putts and quietly move up the leaderboard. Having won here before as well as nine other times on the European Tour also a major winner(2010 PGA Championship), Martin knows how to win and that will be important this week.

 
The wild card this week has to be Schwartzel(the only one in the field that played the TC last week). One of the favs currently at around 20/1. He had a decent playoff performance but in playing the final two events, both of which had no cut, he certainly would've missed the cut last week but did shoot a decent final round 66 to maybe give him some momentum this week but still finished 29 out of 30 last week. Also the rain delay at the end of the BMW gave only 2 days rest between the final two events and then flying 12 hours to Scotland from ATL has to be gruelling, not to mention the time difference going against him.
Another big difference is the format of the tournaments. The BMW and TC had 70 & 30 entrants respectively, while the ADLC will have over 300 including amateurs. Plus they will have a pro am going on as well while the main tournament is going on. This and the fact that although they will have a decent prize pool($5M) it pales in comparison to the stakes that were on the line through the playoffs. All of these things combined have given me enough reasons to leave him of the card.
I won't necessarily be fading him in h2h plays given the weakness of the field compared to what he faced through the playoffs and in the first couple rounds he could do okay by sort of running on fumes. I've noticed this "fumes" angle in many different spots and sports, some of you might agree although depending on his performance he will burn out before the tourney ends. All this being said I was wrong in a similar spot in the week following the U.S. Open(Although I did back Rose to a 25/1 payout). I covered the BMW International Open and really didn't see Els winning after he had competed to a T4 finish at the difficult Merion course. This is a different situation but Els did overcome certain fatigue and travel and went on to win in Germany that week on fumes..
Sorry for the rant, just wanted to talk about golf a little. Bit of a slow week with no PGA & LPGA, I may look into the Web Tour event with a lot on the line although I had no success on that tour and missed all 4 tourneys I covered earlier in the year going 0-19 in futures in the process.
I'll have a few more plays posted for this event before the Wed night tee off(time difference).
Best of Luck
 
Thanks guys, I see some h2h(head to head) lines up on Pinny, I'll be going over those and will get a play or two posted today. I usually have write ups for the 72h(72 hole, full tourney) plays. Should be a good event and I'll have more thoughts from a capping standpoint as well. I was thinking I might discuss e/w(each way) betting also, maybe in a separate thread for reference. Does anybody here practice e/w betting?

DJS
 
Only one site, I posted nearly everyday for almost 2 years at pregame. I had a falling out, not really with p/g but in a bad business decision with one of their ex pros and was outed only as a result of that. I may get back in touch with them in the future and make amends although the way they handled the matter, at least in regards to me was not very professional imo. Like everybody and every business, they do some things well and other things not so well. Just the way it is. Thanks for asking, I have nothing to hide. I am a proven consistent winner and will be an asset to this community for as long as I continue to post here. Cheers.
:shake:
 
There was a guy who used to podcast,and for the life of me I cant recall his name,or the site which promoted the pods he was on,he had some trouble breathing tho,big fella I think...and he all of a sudden stopped being on,about 3 months back,he was shit hot on golf match-ups.
Regardless,welcome to the site DJS,quality contributions here already.
GL :shake:
 
Thanks Manchester, I'm not sure who you're referring to but Gill Alexander used to do a solid podcast on pregame and did also part ways with p/g a few months back. He might still be doing the podcast. I used to follow him on twitter and I think he was doing it even after he left pregame. I'm really not sure. Thanks again for dropping in. BOL.
:shake:
 
Gill joined D best as a baseball capper after his results last season,hes done his absolute conkers this season....dont wanna hate on the guy cause I kinda like him,he still does pods for pregame,at least one a week with Dave Essler...
I racked the old brain while eating me tea and remembered the guys name I was referring to,Alf Musketa....I dont know whats happend to him.
Dont want to derail your thread cause its good.Sorry

GL Mate :cheers:
 
No problem Manchester. That's interesting, I've never even heard of Alf Musketa. I had been thinking about doing a podcast myself for golf and sports but I'm not very experienced when it comes media type stuff. I'll likely launch my own website around January and will try to incorporate a pod/webcast. Not a lot of golf podcasts out there outside of the PGATOUR which of course has no betting element. I think it could do well especially for the bigger events such as WGC's and Major's.

Drop in any time sir. :cheers:
 
ESPN! Wow good for him.


Here are some 72h plays I have for this event, first one didn't get a write up for obv reasons. BOL.


Full Tournament Match Bets


2 Unit Plays

**Martin Kaymer -110 over Charl Schwartzel

**Victor Dubission -115 over Brooks Koepka

~Couple young guns here, we’re backing Victor here in a spot in which we’re also fading Koepka. BK will be playing his sixth consecutive tournament which can be a tough spot with large field. Also Koepka will be making his first appearance at this tournament and first time at St. Andrews. Victor did mc this event and the ‘10 British Open at St. Andrews however did T27 in ‘11 before taking a T5 last year. Dubission has taken the last two weeks off after a T3 at the Omega European Masters. VD should be well rested and ready to play well at an event that he’s had some recent success at.

**Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Thorbjorn Olesen

~Two more solid young players, here we’re going with the hotter recent hand. Tommy has two top 10’s including a win and only one mc in his last six starts while Olesen has 3 mc’s and only one top 10 in his last six starts. Interesting the results the last two years with these guys, in ‘11 TF finished T5 while TO T45 and last year TF T55 and TO T2. Despite Olesen’s runner up finish last year he’s really had an off year. Since his T6 at the Masters Olesen’s only top 10 came at the Johnny Walker when he took solo ninth but that was the event that Fleetwood won. Looking at stats Fleetwood has the edge in every key department including GIR, Scrambling, Sand Save, Putting and Stroke Average. Really like our side here.

 
Not gonna lie, good writeups and good knowledge of both tours. I love the Dunhill event. Some great courses. GL this week. Taking a few weeks off to enjoy our new son. I will be back soon to handle the books. Most likely around Tiger's world event, or the big events in Australia.
 
crawdads said:
Not gonna lie, good writeups and good knowledge of both tours. I love the Dunhill event. Some great courses. GL this week. Taking a few weeks off to enjoy our new son. I will be back soon to handle the books. Most likely around Tiger's world event, or the big events in Australia.
Click to expand...

Thanks crawdads, I appreciate it. Congrats on the new addition. As you obviously know golf is very much a year round sport betting wise and that is one of the things I love about it! I thought by covering an event like this as my first tourney on this site you guys would see that I know what's going on.
I've had a great year and have covered golf each and every week since the TOC back in the first week of Jan. 38 straight weeks I think and often cover more then one event. I won't go on and on with records since I have nothing documented on this site but I will say that YTD over the 3 main tours I cover in PGA, LPGA and Euro I have profited over 220 units with virtually all plays <2 units. I will prove myself on this site over time and do make my living from betting golf.
I've decided not to cover the Web Tour event and we'll just roll with this one. I also do CFB which is a grind, I'm 22-19-1 +2.5u making me regret wasting so much time on it but living in Canada I also need to get ready for the upcoming NHL season. I didn't bet hockey last year as much as I normally do but this year I plan to specialize in the western conference, specifically the northwest division. So even though it feels like a "slow week", their is no such thing especially this time of year despite no PGA event.
I'll get a first round play or two up here tomorrow for you guys and will try to get at least one for each round this week.
BOL
 
I did want to touch on a couple things that will affect betting this week and will be a little difficult from a capping perspective. The most important thing to look at when capping 18h(18 hole, round by round match ups) plays this week will be tee times. This is always important in any event, on any tour, any course etc. but will be more important this week, let me explain.
You'll still want to look at the other things I've mentioned such as key stats, tourney/course form, recent form etc but if you're looking at say a first round h2h match up, first take note and make sure the players are playing on the same course, St. Andrews will play a fair bit easier then Carnoustie for one thing but pay very close attention to the times that the players tee off assuming they're on the same course.
Morning tee time players almost always have an advantage over afternoon tee times and that will be magnified this week for a couple reasons. On these links tracks the wind is usually 5-10km stronger in the afternoon then in the morning and with so many players playing this week the course will be chewed up fairly good by the afternoon especially with the large number of amateurs playing. If you look at the match ups closely you might see a spot where player A is teeing off at 7am vs player B at 1pm. This is the spot you want. You can almost blindly(always do the thorough research..) take the am player in this spot.
I'll give you an example from the Women's British Open held this year at St. Andrews, in either the second or third round, I found 3 of these plays with this exact angle and got the plays in shortly after the books put out the lines. All of the plays opened at -110/-120 and by tee off they were all at >-160 and needless to say went 3-0. Most golf cappers should know this already as it does pertain to all events but much more so this week. Good Luck to all.

DJS
 
Hey guys, here's a solid play for the first round. Keep in mind we're on overseas time so this event will tee off around 1am/4am pst/est so make sure to get your bets in tonight. BOL.


First Round H2H

2 Unit Play

**Ernie Els -110 over Brandon Grace



 
Sorry boss, I got that in at Pinny, the PGA m/u's are usually the same but Euro I guess they differ. I still like Fleetwood over Olesen in first round although it's a little thinner for just one round but we still have a good edge. BOL.
 
Well not a bad start to this event, the Els over Grace play cashed for any that were able to bet it. We have a seven shot lead in the Fleetwood match, Dubuisson play was cancelled since he w/d prior to tee off. Kaymer is down one shot to Schwartzel although both will be playing the more difficult Carnoustie tomorrow, Kaymer has the tee time advantage, then both will play St. Andrews on Sat and Sun and I still think we'll cash that ticket and hopefully MK will have a good weekend and take the win. I might have a second round play or two up later.

DJS
 
Sorry for the late post guys, here's a second round play that will go very early tomorrow morning. BOL.


Second Round H2H


2 Unit Play


**Marc Warren +115 over Alex Noren
 
Good stuff Schrute, interesting spot but we have the tee time edge and the 'home field advantage' so to speak with Warren hailing from Scotland. Granted Warren has missed four cuts in a row but Noren hasn't even played a competitive event the past six weeks and had three mc's and a w/d in his last four events played prior to that. Noren is now coming off a -5/67 and (both players)will be facing the most difficult course of the week in Carnoustie. Plus we get the dog price. I could go on but you get the picture and it's only one play. I think it will be close but we should win 70-71/72. Best of Luck.
 
Not betting it but as a "fan", I'd like to see Knost, Tomasulo, Cauley, Bertsch, Goggin, Chopra and Klauk get through. I kind of like this new format. Will be tougher for new guys trying to break through, unless you're Spieth lol, my favorite player on tour.. But feels like guys have to play more consistently throughout the year to get through instead of just a good week at Q school.
 
Warren over Noren cashes and it wasn't even close! Six shot victory over 18 holes feels good with one of the biggest dogs on the board. Our 20-1 pony Kaymer shot 66 on the toughest course they'll play this week and will now play the weekend at St. Andrews. Weather looks good tomorrow but winds are expected to pick up for a blustery Sunday finish. Should see 20-25+kmh. We'll look to keep the 18h plays rolling later today I'll post another one or two. See you soon.

​DJS
 
I like Cantlay, Peterson, Ben Martin (return to tour), Chesson Hadley. Really excited to see these guys. All were big time college players.
 
@CTG_BAR said:
Great thread.

A very nice little golf-base we are developing here.
Click to expand...

Thank you sir. IMO from many years of sportsbetting and gambling experience I am pretty sure Golf offers the most "value" of any sport in the markets. I always feel like I have an edge and I don't mind losing some weeks because I usually 'get the best of it', seems like it almost takes bad luck to lose. The fact that's offered year round 4-5 days a week is another bonus. Plus the futures are nice to cash as well and at times you get hedge opportunities that are just not offered in any other sport. Like at the Tour Championship I had Stenson at 18/1 and I didn't check after the second round but with one round to play the field was widely available at +250! Just amazing the many ways there are to make money betting golf.
 
Here is a play for the 3rd round. This one pushed yesterday with both shooting a 66 but we'll give it a go. Both players have a lot of experience at this event but again we have a pretty good tee time edge and that could make a difference if the wind picks up. BOL.

Third Round H2H


2 Unit Play


**Soren Kjeldsen -110 over Mark Foster
 
Well we continue to roll.. Now 3-0 in 18 hole head to head and cash the Fleetwood 72h play with Olesen missing the cut. Also have a four shot lead in the Kaymer over Schwartzel play with 18 to play. Our 20-1 pony Kaymer is only two back of Uihlein who is almost certainly going to regress in the final round. He shot 60 & 65 the last two rounds at an event he's never played before and if he breaks 70 in the final round I'll be surprised. So we're 4-0 in h2h plays with one pending and are now "free rolling" a chance at a big score in Kaymer. Golf is good, is it not?
 
Probably no final round plays. We'll have a good sweat w/Kaymer and no need to give anything back. I'll have a recap in the morning and we'll look ahead to next week. See you then.
 
Peter Uhlein is an absolute stud. Playoff is on right now. Beautiful 18th at St Andrews. This guy whenever he decides will come over to the US and do absolute work.
 
Totally agree crawdads. Sucks he lost the playoff but Kaymer was supposed to win today anyway!

Sorry for the late update, busy day! The Kaymer/Schwartzel 72h play pushes so we finish the week 4-0-1 in head to head plays and gave ourselves a nice chance at a big score with Kaymer. A nice winning week! Next week we'll have Presidents Cup & LPGA to focus on golf wise. I'm passing on the Seve Trophy event but will be all over the the rest of the Euro Tour season leading up to the Race to Dubai! Great time of year for sports, including golf!
 
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