AFC Wildcard Round Discussion Thread
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Buffalo (other than players like Diggs that stayed at hospital) got the heck out of dodge. I said it then and have since. That was a bit shocking to me how quickly they left.
That's where the league should have said that anything was on the table, stay put till further instruction. Obviously, this is about 2.5 hours after the injury and the league is taking a beating anyways so who knows where their heads were.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Buffalo had no reason leaving Cincinnati until at least Tuesday.
dg84
Inside Mike Tomlin‘s Mind
Where did this come from? Is there a link to an article, or some other type of verification? Bottom line is THE NFL made all the decisions. Again, there was absolutely no way the game was being played Tuesday or Wednesday. I realize you're a KC fan, so I get your upset about the possibility of a neutral site game, but unless you have some actual proof backing the above statement, I'm done arguing the point.
Not trying to get in the middle, he sourced it one post after (Pro Football Talk).
dg84
Inside Mike Tomlin‘s Mind
Dramatic about what? That he might have died? My point was that if the Bills were lobbying for favors, as MusicCityGambler was inferring, then they obviously were doing so prior to Hamlin being out of the woods health wise. The NFL made the official decision Thursday, but that would have required Buffalo to be pushing for that outcome prior to the decision. Again, I'll say that the fairest thing would have been to play the game this weekend & push the playoffs back & skip the bye week between the conference championships & Super Bowl. The NFL either decided that would damage their bottom-line, or perhaps one or more of the stadiums would have been unavailable. There's no way anyone can say that a 7-3 game in the 1st quarter was already determined.
dg84
Inside Mike Tomlin‘s Mind
Thanks for pointing that out. Still doesn't make it factual though. I believe the NFL made decisions that were in its own best interest here. If Buffalo had anything to do with it & were trying to get out of playing the game & that's proven to be the case later, I will admit my error.
Yeah, I don't know what the Bills intentions were at all other than not playing that night.
That plane taking off so quick just struck a curiosity for me is all.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
End of the game, LAC had two drives end in Jags territory (32 and 11). There was 21 plays on those drives and I remember then wondering why he was letting Justin get abused. The OL was really rough then.
In-between those two drives, the Jags had a 9 min tuddy drive.
It was 16-10 in the third, Jax had 4th and 1 at midfield and went for it...50-yard touchdown run. Who knows what happens if Jax doesn't convert there?
Jax possessed a ton, so certainly the Charger D was worn down. Herbert is healthy this time and so is Allen. So the Charger O will possess a lot more.
Also Bosa left the game, but he's been logging full practices. With him and Mack (who was curiously quiet in Week 3) plus Van Noy surging (five sacks in last five games), Trevor won't have the same comfort in the pocket.
The plan for Trevor is obvious...he doesn't throw deep as well -- #31 in catchable pass rate -- and he's gonna wanna get the ball out fast, anyways, to escape Charger pass rush. So lots of short and medium passes from him (part of an argument for the under).
Can Charger cornerbacks play tighter coverage or are they going to yield a cushion and let Trevor throw easy short, quick-release passes? Yes, see the Dolphins game, they have the corners to excel in press man coverage.
Jax possessed a ton, so certainly the Charger D was worn down. Herbert is healthy this time and so is Allen. So the Charger O will possess a lot more.
Also Bosa left the game, but he's been logging full practices. With him and Mack (who was curiously quiet in Week 3) plus Van Noy surging (five sacks in last five games), Trevor won't have the same comfort in the pocket.
The plan for Trevor is obvious...he doesn't throw deep as well -- #31 in catchable pass rate -- and he's gonna wanna get the ball out fast, anyways, to escape Charger pass rush. So lots of short and medium passes from him (part of an argument for the under).
Can Charger cornerbacks play tighter coverage or are they going to yield a cushion and let Trevor throw easy short, quick-release passes? Yes, see the Dolphins game, they have the corners to excel in press man coverage.
Good analysis.
I watched that 2h. Thanks for the reminder on the 4th n 1 play.
Chargers had opened with a score, FG in 3rd.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Anyone think the Ravens keep it close?
I know lw the Bengals were in full control so they were just looking to get out with the w. Looking at the second half drive chart from lw still makes me think twice about laying 2+ scores. I know most would correlate Ravens cover to the under, but I think they need 20+ to cover here. I really wish Lamar was healthy because it would be so good for the game.
Bengals 1sth tt o12.5-124 looks like an auto bet once you look and see they've scored 13+ in every home game outside of week 1. I have a hard time seeing the Bengals coming out flat here, but again I can't get that 2ndh drive chart out of my head.
As of right now I haven't bet a thing but in order of my leans
Cincy 1sth tt o12.5
fg o40-122
Ravens+8.5
I might be wrong but I don't think Cincy just blows Balty out of the water. They are covering machines but lines have been adjusted- granted I think they may be better this season but they won close playoff games last year. They aren't sneaking up on anyone- I think a 26-20 / 30-23 type game here is very possible.
I know lw the Bengals were in full control so they were just looking to get out with the w. Looking at the second half drive chart from lw still makes me think twice about laying 2+ scores. I know most would correlate Ravens cover to the under, but I think they need 20+ to cover here. I really wish Lamar was healthy because it would be so good for the game.
Bengals 1sth tt o12.5-124 looks like an auto bet once you look and see they've scored 13+ in every home game outside of week 1. I have a hard time seeing the Bengals coming out flat here, but again I can't get that 2ndh drive chart out of my head.
As of right now I haven't bet a thing but in order of my leans
Cincy 1sth tt o12.5
fg o40-122
Ravens+8.5
I might be wrong but I don't think Cincy just blows Balty out of the water. They are covering machines but lines have been adjusted- granted I think they may be better this season but they won close playoff games last year. They aren't sneaking up on anyone- I think a 26-20 / 30-23 type game here is very possible.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
I think the Jags lose. I keep thinking about the Jags/Cowboys game and how Pollard was ripping them, Lamb was killing them & then dak gift wrapped the game for Jax. I don't think you see the same sort of thing from Herbert & co should they get up early. Ekeler is not getting 5 carries this game.
Jax offense looked horrendous vs the Titans, very one dimensional. Chargers have way better corners but worse vs the run. Common sense says Etienne gonna get touches, but idk Peterson doesn't use common sense sometimes.
Chargers are 1-5 vs playoff teams (jax 3-3) yet they are favored on the road?
Jax offense looked horrendous vs the Titans, very one dimensional. Chargers have way better corners but worse vs the run. Common sense says Etienne gonna get touches, but idk Peterson doesn't use common sense sometimes.
Chargers are 1-5 vs playoff teams (jax 3-3) yet they are favored on the road?
Capaholic
Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
Right now on
Baltimore +10 (-120)
Jax ML +118
We just saw this game. And the Ravens gave up 28 points, their most of the season. How did this happen? 4 turnovers. Bengals scored 3 TDs. 2 were on possessions started in Balt territory. The 3rd was a defensive TD. Cincy had 9 drives started in their own territory. They got in Balt territory only twice for 2 FG. And they barely covered this number. Banking on Balts D being its usual self and Balt not turning it over 4 times.
Chargers are somewhat considered “hot”. In the 10 games since their bye, 7 have been against teams with a DVOA of 20 or lower. The other 3 they went 1-2.
Chargers on a short week. Flying across country. An imbecile for a coach. Should they win? Yeah there’s a lot of talent there. I’d rather be on the other side of this one.
I’m going to tease the Bills somehow. I don’t want much to do with that one.
Baltimore +10 (-120)
Jax ML +118
We just saw this game. And the Ravens gave up 28 points, their most of the season. How did this happen? 4 turnovers. Bengals scored 3 TDs. 2 were on possessions started in Balt territory. The 3rd was a defensive TD. Cincy had 9 drives started in their own territory. They got in Balt territory only twice for 2 FG. And they barely covered this number. Banking on Balts D being its usual self and Balt not turning it over 4 times.
Chargers are somewhat considered “hot”. In the 10 games since their bye, 7 have been against teams with a DVOA of 20 or lower. The other 3 they went 1-2.
Chargers on a short week. Flying across country. An imbecile for a coach. Should they win? Yeah there’s a lot of talent there. I’d rather be on the other side of this one.
I’m going to tease the Bills somehow. I don’t want much to do with that one.
Super Bowl Squares 2023 ($50/square, pays on each score change)
Going to run this back. Think last year's went pretty well, which you can see here: Super Bowl Squares. ($50/square, pays on each score change) We will be paying on every score change, including extra points. I'll find someone not in the pool on the board that will run two separate RNGs for...
For those interested...
Zeke
Big Dick and Average Size Boat
Hey, why not. Nobody will call it square if it hits. If you're still alive up to the Minn game you could hedge a bit with some NYG ML cause I can't imagine Cinci losing SU.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
77.5 still low end of what I thought it would be.
Rushing attempts sitting at 16.5....If Jax gets a lead late I feel like this is golden, but I may actually opt for rush & rec o95.5.
Soooo many bootlegs in that offense and if the coverage is there downfield Etienne might get some checkdowns. He has 6 20+ yard catches this season
I guess I should head on over to the prop thread with these posts.....
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Lines jumping like crazy
Bills 9.5----->10.5----->8------>13.5
Bengals- low as 6.5 high as 10.
Chargers moved a bit as well early & ML -139
Bills line move is odd to me as I thought it was a foregone conclusion that Tua had no shot to play. I think it may have to do more with the oline injuries. They are pretty banged up & Mostert looks like he may not go. Line is way high considering the last two meetings but those were different times. Last meeting I said the spread was too high & fins+pts would likely cover. Just saying that to say I feel like I'm pretty subjective.
I think the Bills win by 17+. The only way they don't is if they sit on the ball 2ndh, which is entirely possible. We have seen it quite a bit, that or the one dumb Allen int a game. Allen made a comment after lw something like at this point it doesn't matter how we win, we just have to score more points. Not sure how to take that but he def has an advantage in the passing game. Love that Buffalo had Shakir & Brown out there lw and Beasley is official now. I really hope Gabe can turn things around but he is a drop machine. Would clearly have been benched by now but he's a solid blocker, most ppl miss that about him. At any rate I tend to think the Bills run game will be big here. Cook has breakout potential but let's not forget Singletary in the playoffs last season- Singletary rush yds o43.5 looks good, td @+108 as well.
Defensively I think they are going to come out and try to pressure Skylar early. The Bills defense is back to bend but don't break while taking advantage of turnovers. Miami may have success running an option with Skylar, but I think Frasier comes with a game plan to force him into mistakes. If they can't pressure him and they stay balanced this may turn into a dog fight.... I just have a hard time seeing the Fins D slowing down Buffalo here.
31-13 type game I think
Bills 9.5----->10.5----->8------>13.5
Bengals- low as 6.5 high as 10.
Chargers moved a bit as well early & ML -139
Bills line move is odd to me as I thought it was a foregone conclusion that Tua had no shot to play. I think it may have to do more with the oline injuries. They are pretty banged up & Mostert looks like he may not go. Line is way high considering the last two meetings but those were different times. Last meeting I said the spread was too high & fins+pts would likely cover. Just saying that to say I feel like I'm pretty subjective.
I think the Bills win by 17+. The only way they don't is if they sit on the ball 2ndh, which is entirely possible. We have seen it quite a bit, that or the one dumb Allen int a game. Allen made a comment after lw something like at this point it doesn't matter how we win, we just have to score more points. Not sure how to take that but he def has an advantage in the passing game. Love that Buffalo had Shakir & Brown out there lw and Beasley is official now. I really hope Gabe can turn things around but he is a drop machine. Would clearly have been benched by now but he's a solid blocker, most ppl miss that about him. At any rate I tend to think the Bills run game will be big here. Cook has breakout potential but let's not forget Singletary in the playoffs last season- Singletary rush yds o43.5 looks good, td @+108 as well.
Defensively I think they are going to come out and try to pressure Skylar early. The Bills defense is back to bend but don't break while taking advantage of turnovers. Miami may have success running an option with Skylar, but I think Frasier comes with a game plan to force him into mistakes. If they can't pressure him and they stay balanced this may turn into a dog fight.... I just have a hard time seeing the Fins D slowing down Buffalo here.
31-13 type game I think
2daBank
Voice of Reason
He been ticking up, I got some ov74.5 at DK on wed I think. I like his receiving yards also (think I saw 14.5 last I checked), I just don’t love doing the combined rush/rec cause they always inflate that number several yards above what their separate totals are.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Another thing to note fins lbs are nothing to write home about. Allen should be able to find open targets mid range at will. He just needs to take them early
aplous
Donkey Hater
With you on Ravens +10. Harbaugh underdog playoff numbers must be respected.
Can't decide on Jax/LAC game. Chargers 10 wins came against a lot of bad QB's but I can't get Jax performance from last week out of my head.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Another feather in Staley coaching cap, no idea how this fucking moron has a job?
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
You don't think the players themselves had anything to say about it, or any impact in the decision?
Your strange hatred for a man who doesn't even coach a team you're a fan of has impacted your ability to think rationally with respect to anything Chargers related. It's really odd, but also fun to watch I guess?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
It has made me win a lot of money betting chargers games, fading their run d. Players decided? Lmao. That says what a garbage coach he is, players play, coaches make those choices. A team I don’t root for? I don’t root for any team, fans are bout the lowest life form. I’m here to make money and it helps knowing when a team overrated cause the talent good but they coached by trash. I don’t hate him, he just a awful coach, now that I think bout it I prob do hate him cause he one those weasels who gets a job he wasnt deserving of. You the one with clouded judgement if you not taking into account how bad he is.
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jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
I didn’t say the players decided, I asked if you thought the players had any input in the decision on playing last Sunday. I would imagine they did, you seem to be assuming Staley and his staff made them play.
He’s not an awful coach, that’s silly. You don’t like him, that’s fine…but to say he’s an awful coach is silly and makes you look more like “the fan” you just lamented as opposed to someone making and having reasoned takes.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Saying he not awful makes you look a certain way too but I’ll keep it civil. Go throw a parade for him, does less with most in the league; worst coach in the league and it not close. Get a clue
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Who said the players wanted to play so bad? Talk about twisting words…good grief.
One game is absolutely indicative of the entire season and will certainly be very valuable in predicting the next game. Ugh.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Nah, don’t hold back. I’d love to know what not jumping to irrational conclusions and wanting to have a reasoned discussion makes someone. Do tell.
Him being an awful coach is not exactly an unpopular opinion. He famously often makes awful decisions…like that game with all the fourth down attempts and having his players risk injury in a meaningless game, to give two quick examples. Why don‘t you actually try defending him instead of engaging in ridiculous condescensions like by calling Bank a „fan“?
Seems very rational to criticize him for indulging in meaningless risks when his already banged-up guys get hurt. Again, you quibble about what is rational or whatever and engage in fatuous speculation instead of making actual points…quit provoking and actually be „reasonable.“
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
I will, and have in the past. I also didn’t say he was a fan at all. You should re-read my first post I guess.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
I was trying to make a point. I asked if he thought the players had anything at all to do with the decision to play or not. He then either twisted the words or didn’t understand the question…and now we’re here.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I been saying the 100s of reasons he awful for 2 years, this was just another feather in a hat full of them: crazy how my dilutions have cashed sooo many running back prop overs against this clowns defensive scheme. You incapable of having a reasonable discussion cause you think you clever and want to take backhanded shots at ppl who don’t agree with your stance on things.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Care if I use your link from earlier to make a point about Staley? Bank has mentioned many times it’s Staley’s defense and schemes that lead to his awfulness, and not the 4th down decisions/gambles/etc.
Chargers' Brandon Staley is polarizing, but his defensive game planning is elite
You can question Staley's fourth-down and playing time decisions, but not his defensive prowess.
theathletic.com
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Care if I use your link from earlier to make a point about Staley? Bank has mentioned many times it’s Staley’s defense and schemes that lead to his awfulness, and not the 4th down decisions/gambles/etc.
Chargers' Brandon Staley is polarizing, but his defensive game planning is elite
You can question Staley's fourth-down and playing time decisions, but not his defensive prowess.
And yet teams continue to run all over them. And speaking of twisting words, you didn’t just ask me the stupid question about the players, then you went on to imply shit about me and call names, I know you can’t help it, I’ve seen enough your post
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jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
I did ask you the question though. You didn’t answer it.
I didn’t imply anything, I was pretty clear with what I was saying…I feel your hatred of Staley is a bit odd for someone who isn’t a fan of the Chargers. That was the point. That is all it was, nothing more nothing less. Apparently you missed it because your feelings got hurt. I’m sorry.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Again, I’m not taking that jerkoffs word as gospel…it’s just another viewpoint that he backs up with actual facts/stats/images/videos. Outside of you saying you’ve made money betting props against the Chargers, what evidence have you come with on the Staley topic ever (over the dozens and dozens of posts in which you’ve lambasted him)?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
So ppl should only care about a coaches chops if they a fan of a team? Who gives a fuvk bout any team for any purpose other than gambling, the reason I don’t fall for chargers like so many do cause I know a awful coach when I see one. One who was dc for a whole year, had Arron Donald that year. His team has no identity other than Herbert bailing out shit play calling and a defense that continually gets gashed on the ground. At least he doesn’t go for it on his own 30 anymore! 5-6 more years maybe he figure out all the other shit he fails at; you should do some self reflecting with him and try not to suck so bad either!! Good luck w that
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Good god no. That’s not the point at all. Jeebus, this is what you came up with?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Are you incapable of seeing for yourself they allow the most yards per rush in the league? I’m sorry, I’ll try dumbing shit down for you.
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