AFC Championship Game: Titans at Chiefs

Capaholic said:
still working on it. Can make a case for both teams. At 7.5 Id advise the Titans and at 7 I’d lean back slightly to KC. At 6.5 I’d take KC. But I’llgo more in depth tomorrow
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Thanks....I have been leaning Titans but when it comes to Cheifs I await your comments
 
Wouldn't it be ironic if Tannehill makes it to the Super Bowl and wins it? Playing in Miami in front of the idiots that got rid of him. Sweet Revenge!
 
Some props that jumped out to me.

Henry Over 109.5. No secret that TEN needs to keep KC's offense off the field. Seems to obvious, probably a loser.
Mahomes +500 to score a TD. Looks really tempting, thoughts?
Mahomes -265 vs Tannehill more passing yards. Juicy but how on earth does this lose?
 
Ryno14 said:
Ed Werder said tonight that the winner of this game will have the first ever starting QB in a Super Bowl that finished their career at a Texas University. Nothing to help you cap the game, but I thought that was pretty wild.
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That is wild.
 
Zeke said:
Some props that jumped out to me.

Henry Over 109.5. No secret that TEN needs to keep KC's offense off the field. Seems to obvious, probably a loser.
Mahomes +500 to score a TD. Looks really tempting, thoughts?
Mahomes -265 vs Tannehill more passing yards. Juicy but how on earth does this lose?
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That Mahomes prop actually might be priced decently.
 
B.A.R. said:
That Mahomes prop actually might be priced decently.
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You referring to the passing prop? If so, I agree it's priced properly to keep some people off it & make you think before laying it, I just don't see it losing.
 
Does this game kind of remind anyone of the Jags/Pats title game 2 years ago? And I’m not going to lie....I forgot all about Jacksonville making it until I rewatched the Malkovich pregame hype video again.
 
Ryno14 said:
Does this game kind of remind anyone of the Jags/Pats title game 2 years ago? And I’m not going to lie....I forgot all about Jacksonville making it until I rewatched the Malkovich pregame hype video again.
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I don't see it. That game featured the #1 offense vs the #1 defense. And the Patriots had the #31 D. You have two solid offenses here with two middle of the pack defenses. The massive Special Teams advantage in KC's favor does mirror NE's advantage over Jax. I don't see the parallels between these two matchups overall though. I could be missing something.
 
Capaholic said:
I don't see it. That game featured the #1 offense vs the #1 defense. And the Patriots had the #31 D. You have two solid offenses here with two middle of the pack defenses. The massive Special Teams advantage in KC's favor does mirror NE's advantage over Jax. I don't see the parallels between these two matchups overall though. I could be missing something.
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You certainly went more in-depth with it than I. I meant more surface wise - a team that no one expected to be there vs a team that many expected to be there.
 
Inspekdah said:
I know... they're a solid team and playing exceptionally well. I guess I just can't get behind them at the right times. Played AWFUL @ home vs. Texans a month ago with the division on the line. Then I was against them last 2 weeks. So sort of one of those situations.
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So you have no clue what you’re talking about as you’re 0-3 with all three favorites (two massive ones) losing SU. It’s alright to sit out
 
Capaholic said:
Listen, what the Titans have done the last couple weeks has been outstanding. Sleeping on them would be silly.

It isn't that I don't believe in Tennessee. I bet on them the last two weeks. Very grateful.

Hottest team though? Believing in themselves and riding high?--- Some of you are describing the Chiefs. Since Mahomes returned? 8-1. That loss was to the Titans in a game that featured a fumble returned for a TD and a blocked kick. And the Chiefs had a 95% chance to win the game with 2:00 to go. They beat themselves and shat themselves on the final defensive drive.

Tannehill under pressure? Ranked 32nd. He will be under pressure all game and that box will be stacked beyond belief.

This was an ideal outcome for the Chiefs (convince me their path was easier some other way, I'll listen) and a better offense, defense, ST and coach will carry the day.

Keep running your mouth fellas about Andy Reid. Unless your coach is named Bill Belichick, he's better than your coach. Can't win in the playoffs? 6th most playoff wins all time. Don Shula, for reference, barely had a .500 record in the playoffs. Perhaps no coach is regarded higher by his peers for his abilities than Reid. Perhaps it's because about 25% learned under him. Dude is a Hall of Famer. Pipe down.
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Not sure where a lot of this came from, but it sounds like a fan wrote this post
 
GWarner27 said:
why does the cold help KC? I’d be most comfortable with no wind helping mahomes, cold seems to be pretty meaningless
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Not that it’s always warm in Nashville, but I just find that teams who are not that used to playing in bitter cold temps tend to struggle until they numb up. First half chiefs maybe?
 
I’m playing KC has a Special Teams/ Def TD prop.

And I would put some on these guys to score a TD anytime
11 Robinson
17 Hardman

I wouldn’t be surprised if McCoy finds the end zone on some kind of trickery either running or throwing a TD.
 
survive&advance said:
Someone in here posted about taking titans under FGs a couple of weeks ago. Well they still haven’t attempted a fg since week 15. Under 1.5 made titans FGs -130 could be solid
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Yeah I'm on it this week. I hit it at -138 and today it dropped to -125 so I took it again. This team just isn't interested in kicking FGs
 
So I heard today that the OC for the Titans who worked his way through the ranks in coaching is the son of the founder of Fed Ex? That’s pretty cool

I’ve done a complete 180 on this game and I’m going ride The Titans
 
TheHbomb said:
Teams scoring 50+ in the playoffs are 1-6 SU the following game.
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This is the major trend I see floating around favoring a Titans play.... to be fair it goes all the way back to the Bills losing the SB after winning the afc champ 51-3. I would say it mostly has to do with inflated lines the following week vs already heavily favored teams. KC might just beat this trend, even though the line is likely higher than it should be.
 
Lexington 125 said:
This is the major trend I see floating around favoring a Titans play.... to be fair it goes all the way back to the Bills losing the SB after winning the afc champ 51-3. I would say it mostly has to do with inflated lines the following week vs already heavily favored teams. KC might just beat this trend, even though the line is likely higher than it should be.
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I get your point for sure, but wouldn’t that be more the case for ATS?
 
We seem to be thinking a Tennessee cover will involve the Titans controlling the clock on the ground, playing keep away, and getting just enough stops to keep it close and maybe pull it out late.

The first meeting between the two could not have been more different from that scenario.

Interesting statistical snippets from the first KC-Ten game:

- KC offense was dominant. 5 possessions of nine or more plays, 8 possessions of at least 3 minutes, 10 possessions started in KC territory. 1 with 16 seconds left in the first half, the other nine KC made it to Ten side of field eight times, with the exception reaching the KC 47. They moved the ball at will all game, with 530 yards and almost 38 minutes TOP.
- Ten scored four offensive TDS, three quick strike (under 1:40 TOP and 4 plays or less), all four going from 61 to 75 yards. They were spaced apart by an offense that was pedestrian the rest of the time, as the other six possessions resulted in 84 yards on 29 plays.
- Turnover margin was dead equal, 1 apiece. Titans did a scoop and score on a D Williams fumble, while KC was actually held to a FG thanks to THREE offensive penalties in six plays (the old six play three and out). KC actually gained 66 yards on the six plays but the penalty wipeouts held it to an 8 yard drive.
- As we probably remember, KC had two field goals foiled in the last two minutes, one on a botched snap and the second blocked.
- Mahomes was 7 for 7 throwing to Kelce, actually 8 for 8 since a 16 yard completion was wiped out as noted above.
- Tannehill was super sharp 13-19 181 2TDs and hit on chunk plays to Raymond (52 yds), Firkser (20), Humphries (23) and Sharpe (20). But he was only 1-4 to AJ Brown for 17 yards.

In my mind the first matchup looks like a bit of a fluke result. I think if both teams put up similar type performances, the unusual results from the previous matchup lean back towards KC covering with a 10 or 17 point win.
 
Gandolf said:
We seem to be thinking a Tennessee cover will involve the Titans controlling the clock on the ground, playing keep away, and getting just enough stops to keep it close and maybe pull it out late.

The first meeting between the two could not have been more different from that scenario.

Interesting statistical snippets from the first KC-Ten game:

- KC offense was dominant. 5 possessions of nine or more plays, 8 possessions of at least 3 minutes, 10 possessions started in KC territory. 1 with 16 seconds left in the first half, the other nine KC made it to Ten side of field eight times, with the exception reaching the KC 47. They moved the ball at will all game, with 530 yards and almost 38 minutes TOP.
- Ten scored four offensive TDS, three quick strike (under 1:40 TOP and 4 plays or less), all four going from 61 to 75 yards. They were spaced apart by an offense that was pedestrian the rest of the time, as the other six possessions resulted in 84 yards on 29 plays.
- Turnover margin was dead equal, 1 apiece. Titans did a scoop and score on a D Williams fumble, while KC was actually held to a FG thanks to THREE offensive penalties in six plays (the old six play three and out). KC actually gained 66 yards on the six plays but the penalty wipeouts held it to an 8 yard drive.
- As we probably remember, KC had two field goals foiled in the last two minutes, one on a botched snap and the second blocked.
- Mahomes was 7 for 7 throwing to Kelce, actually 8 for 8 since a 16 yard completion was wiped out as noted above.
- Tannehill was super sharp 13-19 181 2TDs and hit on chunk plays to Raymond (52 yds), Firkser (20), Humphries (23) and Sharpe (20). But he was only 1-4 to AJ Brown for 17 yards.

In my mind the first matchup looks like a bit of a fluke result. I think if both teams put up similar type performances, the unusual results from the previous matchup lean back towards KC covering with a 10 or 17 point win.
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Terrific, terrific stuff.
 
B.A.R. said:
Well, he's absolutely putrid at picking games...with that being said he pretty much picks them and the Vols most games, right? If I am a Titan fan I'd much rather he pick KC to feel better about my team.
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Hmm. I'd never noticed him picking much with Tennessee. Sounds like he has picked the Titans to win every game so far, so at least he's been right on that front...
 
I cannot find a team in the modern era to have won four consecutive road games in four straight weeks. Can anyone verify.
 
Capaholic said:
I cannot find a team in the modern era to have won four consecutive road games in four straight weeks. Can anyone verify.
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Tough criteria though... '05 '07 '10 Steelers, Giants and Packers all had home games to end the regular season. Before 1990 there was just one WC team per conference.
 
Capaholic said:
I cannot find a team in the modern era to have won four consecutive road games in four straight weeks. Can anyone verify.
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Would you count the Super Bowl as a road game? If so, I believe the Packers and Steelers won as a WC. So that’s 4 straight road games.
I think it was 08 Packers and 05 Steelers maybe?
I wouldn’t be able to look up until tonight, gotta finish up here so I can get our of here and be done for the weekend.
A couple of us are invited to the game in one of our Dealers Company Suite..... To be continued
 
Flights into KC have been canceled into KC from Nashville & Atlanta. Due to ice
Some are flying into Iowa and driving in.
 
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