3/26 Horse Racing

Play2win said:
Check out my longshot #4 in R3 at Gulf - last was on turf, before that caught in duel, before that was off layoff, anything can happen in this bad field, has back races that make him dangerous and could be speed
Click to expand...

Looks live at a price, seems to have needed a few races after a break to get his stride going again, I like it.
 
My thoughts on today's Rainbow 6:

Race 7 - MSW for 3yo 7.5F on Turf

#1 - Attfield trainee is a half to nice turfer Danish Dynaformer, Woodbine shippers have performed well this meet, this one hasn't raced since November and lone try on turf was his less than stellar debut, probably up against it here for the return.

#2 - First 2 races saw him fade near back of the pack sprinting on dirt, would need to take a big step forward to contend here.

#3 - Mott (6% FTS) firster has a steady work pattern for this for Dubb and Company, will probably be much better after he gets this one under his belt.

#4 - Got off slow and made a nice middle move before leveling out in debut, Clement 20% with second time starters expect to see improvement and be near the front at the wire.

#5 - Casse firster, has a nice pedigree but is geared towards dirt, has a nice steady work tab coming in for a hot barn, gets an aggressive rider in Paco Lopez and would not be shocked to see him in the winners circle.

#6 - Tried turf for first time last out going 5F, did flash some early speed on dirt last fall and figures to be involved early in this one, would consider if speed bias seems to be in effect in early races, other wise a pace presence at best.

#7 - 2nd off the layoff and caught some traffic problems in his last having to check and steady around the turn, expect an improved performance here.

#8 - 2 turf attempts are the highest Beyer numbers in the field for the shortest price in the sequence, gave up the lead late at 8F and the slight cutback certainly makes him the one to beat.

#9 - Scratched

#10 - Another coming in off a Spa debut, this one switch from Pletcher to Mott barn during the layoff and comes in with a steady work tab including a nice blowout on Tuesday, Junior comes down from NY for the mount, this one looks live.

#11 - Firster doesn't show much turf in the pedigree, Henning only 5% with debut runners, pass.

#12 - Not much to like here, weak speed figures, trainer 0-43 at the meet and only 3 works off the 5 month layoff, pass.

#13 - Scratched.

#14 - Scratched.

A - #4, 8, 10 B - #1, 14 C- #5, 7

Race 8 - 4yo and up $16k Claiming 5F Turf

#1 - Lone turf try was 2 back where he finished 3rd by a neck to today's rival #3, has shown much more early speed in dirt efforts than he did in that one and caught a little traffic before making his move up the rail. Appears to be a lot of speed in here and if able to save ground along the rail may be able to get up at a decent price.

#2 - Hard knocking 9yo won his last at this level over this course, will be coming late and hoping not to get up with tiring horses in the lane. Has run well over this turf course and the distance, top contender.

#3 - Does his best running when out on the lead, but with other speed signed on here will be contested the whole way.

#4 - Another who needs the lead and will have to fight for it, with what appears to be quick rivals signed on here may be up against it with his preferred running style.

#5 - Versatile 7yo has shown some speed but 3 of 4 wins have come from off the pace, 2.5 month layoff after last which was off similar layoff indicates this one has some issues staying race ready, if 100% would have a shot in with these.

#6 - Finished in the money in 2 of 3 turf starts including a win at this level and distance in last. That was a wire to wire effort and figures to be contending with several others early in here, can't discount but running style will have him being pressed right when the gates open.

#7 - Just missed when in against others in this field (#1,3), running style of coming off the pace may be better suited for today's race, trainer Ziadie has been very cold since returning from a suspension but did train this one to a nice allowance win at today's distance almost a year ago, can't ignore.

#8 - Will be pressing the speed inside of him but last wins occurred when on the lead, may show some improvement in 3rd off 11 month layoff.

#9 - Been 21 races since his last win and current form seems to be a step behind the top contenders in here

#10 - Scratched

#11 - Scratched

#12 - Has had some traffic issues in last 2 and broke badly 3 back, may be able to catch a piece underneath but think the top spot would be a reach here.

#13 - Scratched

#14 - Hasn't been the same horse since the Spa win back in September, would really need to improve of recent form to be a factor here.

A - #1, ,2, 7 B- #3, 5, 6


Race 9 - Maiden Claiming 12.5K 3yo and up 7 Furlongs

#1 - Beaten favorite dropping down to this level in his last, 2nd off the layoff and cutback, one to beat in a weak field.

#2 - Drops down after a decent debut in which he did have to check early on, Breen does well with 2nd time runners, logical contender.

#3 - The drop down didn't really help in last and the 2 efforts over this surface don't indicate he's a threat here.

#4 - Another who has not shown much running ability, his one in the money finish was OK back in January but other 6 tries very unimpressive.

#5 - Maybe the drop down helps but going long on the lawn wasn't the answer after previous dirt sprints weren't impressive either, 0-35 trainer at this meet doesn't add to the appeal any.

#6 - Another drop who didn't show much on the switch back to dirt in last, but his 2 efforts late last year make him a contender here.

#7 - Hasn't been within 10 lengths of the winner of any of his 7 tries, off a 6 month layoff, pass.

#8 - Another who has shown nothing in 9 career tries, and never within 10 lengths, can't see in any way.

#9 - Drops down for half the price off a very poor showing for another 0-for trainer.

#10 - Stretches out a bit and the extra ground may help a bit still looks a step below the top horses in here.

#11 - Ran pretty good on drop down and return to dirt as beaten chalk in last, should be able to stalk the pace from this outside post, contender.

#12 - Has some early speed in a field lacking that ingredient and the cutback to 7F should help as he gave way late in his last, have to consider.

#13 - Will be battling for the early lead with the horse to his inside on the stretchout, has 7 minor awards in 12 starts so he may have some hang in him but should be competitive in with these.

#14 - Scratched

#15 - Scratched

A - 1,2,11 B - 6,12

Race 10 - OC 35k/SAL 35k - 1 Mile on Turf

#1 - Broke the maiden in last going wire to wire, facing winners for the first time always tough.

#2 - Was much the best against 25k maidens in last but the waters get a little deeper here, would need everything to go his way.

#3 - Has yet to cross the finish line first as the maiden breaker was via DQ, did come back against slightly better than these and showed a nice kick down the lane after a tough start from the inside post, wouldn't be shocked.

#4 - Most of his turf efforts have been against much better including a G3 effort, returns to the surface after a failed try on the dirt, but the barn is 0-43 at the meet and don't know if he wants 8F, mixed signals.

#5 - Another coming out of the maiden ranks who had a great trip in his last, does have some tactical speed and gets the trainers first call NY rider.

#6 - Dropping down in class here and couldn't find a hole at all in the stretch in his last before splitting foes very late, looks live.

#7 - Turf form has not been very good in his previous 2 attempts against winners.

#8 - Broke the maiden easily in last against cheaper and some of his previous turf attempts were pretty, one to consider.

#9 - Making turf debut for a 30% off the claim trainer, but conditioner doesn't have great numbers with first time turfers or going dirt to turf, will look towards others.

#10 - Broke the maiden in last at 9F stalking slow fractions, don't know if the cutback helps here too much.

#11 - Tried turf for first time in a restricted stakes and was a decent effort, a much better fit at this level, contender.

A - 3,6 B - 4,8,11 C - 9,5

Race 11 - Sanibel Island Handicap 3yo Fillies 1 Mile on Turf

#1 - Took a big step forward with the move to grass in the last against 25K claimers, waters are deeper here but one of several who may be fighting for the lead early on

#2 - Seems to be a notch below most of this field.

#3 - Was ambitiously placed in her last 2 on dirt after breaking her maiden in only turf attempt, another that will be looking to gun it from the gate and hope to hang on.

#4 - First start since Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, has won on the lead and from far back, seems to be the class of the field, for a barn that is known for getting them better with age.

#5 - Both turf tries were good against maidens and may have some tactical speed but another that would need to step up to cross the wire first.

#6 - Multiple stakes winner ran a nice 2nd in a G2 event in last, nice stalking style should put her in this, major factor.

#7 - Scratched

#8 - Shipped to Fair Grounds to get a stakes win, but was no competition for #6 earlier this year, would have needed to improve leaps to best that one today.

#9 - Stakes winner at Woodbine in the fall, won turf debut in last and switches to a top turf barn, outside chance.

#10 - Was run down by #9 in her last and 2 stakes attempts shows she is probably a notch below the top ones here, same trainer as #4 and that one gets first call rider.

#11 - Another who has run well in Allowance races but has been no match in stakes attempts.

#12 - Won sprinting on turf in debut but hasn't shown that same form stretching out, consider a pace presence off the layoff.

A - #4,6 B -# 8,9


Race 12 - 3yo Maiden 25K 1 Mile on Turf

#1 - Lone turf try against better was not impressive, comes in off a long layoff for 0-43 conditioner

#2 - Not bred for the turf at all so the move to the lawn seems a bit desperate, pass.

#3 - Late running colt will need a quick pace to close into and an honest turf course today, outside shot.

#4 - Long layoff for this Indiana bred who showed nothing in debut against other state breds, will look at others.

#5 - Clement firster comes in with a long, steady work tab, can't ignore.

#6 - Has shown some early speed in his turf races, new tactics to come from of pace didn't show a ton, maybe.

#7 - Had some trouble in the debut getting bumped at the start and then rushing up before fading, expect an improved effort here.

#8 - Exits some live dirt races but the 2 turf efforts against better weren't very impressive, mixed signals.

#9 - Tried grass for the first time and didn't show much even when in for half the price, pass.

#10 - Scratched

#11 - Showed a little in debut after a slow start, switch to Paco may help as jockey/trainer combo does sport a positive ROI

#12 - Layoff, first turf off of 2 very lack luster performances against 12.5K maiden claimers, pass.

A - #5,7,11 B - #6,8 C - #4
 
Never would have had #2 in Race 6 at Gulf, time for Pick 6, although we probably have an hour the way Gulf runs their races
 
Figures one of the races that should be the most formful ends up with probably the biggest price winner.
 
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