2025 Golf Handicapping Thread....

Henley going to win this.

I said it to my buddies on Monday.

And no, I do not have any bets on him.

I wanted to wait on outrights this week -- Collin was my value guy to bet yesterday but his price was awful.
 
0-2 rd.3 -11u, +1u for the tourney. Gonna take my 1u winnings to the course tomorrow and see if I can double it from my foursome.

Lucky to have open parlays with the following guys to win, 1u each, just counting the last leg towards record.

Morikawa +105
Henley +270
Connors +650
Day +1000

Rooting for Day, obviously but I’ll take any of em for the dub. Gonna be a tough going tomorrow, GL on your plays
 
The ole middle of the night sweat....

Sergio Garcia going nuts in the final round of LIV....

That sucks.

Why?

I have Philly 200-1 to win this thing.

3 holes left for most golfers...

Standings


Screenshot_20250309-040843.png


Phil started today 3 shots back, is -5 and has lost ground. That's golf!


BUT...

I also took Phil 20-1 for a top 10.

Please don't do anything stupid these last 3 holes!! He's played so good this week.

I actually have some more Phil thoughts when we get a Masters thread started sooner rather than later ...
 
Gonna hop on the Lowery bogey train today and chase it down. If he plays bogey-free on the front 9 I likely won't be a fun chat
 
Itch to scratch after ugly rounds by Deki and Lowry yesterday.

Rd.4 API
Deki under 71.5 -115 3u (DK)
Lowry under 72.5 -125 3u (DK)
 
The ole middle of the night sweat....

Sergio Garcia going nuts in the final round of LIV....

That sucks.

Why?

I have Philly 200-1 to win this thing.

3 holes left for most golfers...

Standings


View attachment 94443


Phil started today 3 shots back, is -5 and has lost ground. That's golf!


BUT...

I also took Phil 20-1 for a top 10.

Please don't do anything stupid these last 3 holes!! He's played so good this week.

I actually have some more Phil thoughts when we get a Masters thread started sooner rather than later ...
Have you been watching the golf or just following the results? Interested in DJ fades for Augusta. Is he playing as bad as his scores suggest? Recently dropped from TM. He looks to be in a bad place. Curious on your thoughts on him.
 
Have you been watching the golf or just following the results? Interested in DJ fades for Augusta. Is he playing as bad as his scores suggest? Recently dropped from TM. He looks to be in a bad place. Curious on your thoughts on him.
I haven't watched a lot of LIV -- biggest reason is the times it's on --

I think DJ got his money and is checked out ? Who knows.
 
Curious when you guys cap, I'm not good at the WC swing or Florida at all. I think they are so completely different that guys are either good or bad at them because the greens are so different. I ask because while I don't care much about Sawgrass, I wonder how all of it translates to Augusta.
 
I was thinking the same thing on Rory, but then I saw a tweet from the data golf guys that said that Rory is actually the best wind player in the field. So I stayed away

Forgot to post yesterday, but I've got:

JT (-110) over Xander
Henley (-130) over Mav
Lowry (-125) over Big Bob MacIntyre
JT to win +2500
Lowry to win +4500
Zalatoris top 20 +175
Berger top 20 +175
Lowry top 20 +150
JT top 10 +185
Lowry top 10 +325
Did pretty well, even being disappointed with Lowry's weekend. Onto Sawgrass. I'm currently out of town for CE/kids spring break, so may not be able to post too much.

My OAD requires that we pick 2 golfers for the Players and the majors. I've never done this before, curious if anyone has any strategy here? Go for 2 big guns? One top guy and one flyer? Not sure how I want to attack it yet
 
I have to do it every Nov/Dec and it sucks. At least the company pays for it.
A few years ago I started only taking classes on stuff I really want to learn about. It's expensive, but I enjoy it far more and it usually translates to me being better at my job. We're staying at the Fairmont Princess in Scottsdale right now (I can see #5 tee box on TPC Scottsdale when I walk out the door) and my kids are blown away. Headed up to Sedona tomorrow night for a few nights. Unfortunately the weather won't be great, but I'm sure we'll manage
 
Tiger just announced he had surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles. Whatever he is doing to his body, he needs to stop. This is getting ridiculous
 
The Players

Hockey and baseball prep have been bumping golf to the back burner, but I found a minute to throw a few in this week.

1u each

Sungjae--Top 20 +180
Straka--Top 20 +150

Tourney MU's

Finau -1.5 Maverick +107
M. Kim -1.5 Thompson +113
Dunalp -1.5 Fox +113

0.2u

Ghim FRL +9000

Swing it easy boys.
 
The Players

Hockey and baseball prep have been bumping golf to the back burner, but I found a minute to throw a few in this week.

1u each

Sungjae--Top 20 +180
Straka--Top 20 +150

Tourney MU's

Finau -1.5 Maverick +107
M. Kim -1.5 Thompson +113
Dunalp -1.5 Fox +113

0.2u

Ghim FRL +9000

Swing it easy boys.
This is nice.

Straka is a pick many in my group like.

The Ghim reaper is one we chatted about tonight as well!.
GL bud.
 
Mike Kim has been awesome this year -- right on the doorstep.

I'm curious if/when the fatigue shows up. He's been playing every single week.

He did get tired a few weeks back (his words) on the weekend but then immediately had great finishes these last two weeks.
 
Guys I've come across during DFS prep (trying to be like BAR):

Brian Harman
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Corey Conners
Aaron Rai
Sepp Straka (though a little tarnished since he's #1 in pgatour.com's power rankings)

I like Shane Lowry again. I'm not ready to back him to win (yet), but I think I'll have some Xander positions among my bets. Might have some Wyndham Clark too

Max Homa on auto fade. Will likely fade Spieth too.
 
The Players full tourney match ups:

Fowler -105 vs Fitzpatrick
Spaun -115 vs A Scott

I think these guys are trending the right way. These aren’t fades on the opponents, but I do have doubts with them. Basically just want some action to follow. Round by round plays may present themselves as the week progresses. I like the theegala fade but not laying -155 on Bhatia to wager on it. Eyeing Homa and cam young fades in single round opportunities. Best of luck with your plays this week.
 
The more I looked, the more I liked. Hopefully I keep up my run with signature events. Have done well there and tanked on the lesser ones.

Matchups:

Wyndham Clark +105 over Burns
Hovland -140 over Spieth
Rai -125 over Bob McIntyre
Fitzpatrick -125 over Fowler
Hadwin -130 over Homa
Hoge +115 over Chan Kim

Top 20:
Xander +140
Rai +160
Lowry +185
Conners +235
Clark +375
Harman +425
Bezuidenhout +425

Top 10:
Xander +325
Lowry +425
Conners +500

Good luck y'all
 
The more I looked, the more I liked. Hopefully I keep up my run with signature events. Have done well there and tanked on the lesser ones.

Matchups:

Wyndham Clark +105 over Burns
Hovland -140 over Spieth
Rai -125 over Bob McIntyre
Fitzpatrick -125 over Fowler
Hadwin -130 over Homa
Hoge +115 over Chan Kim

Top 20:
Xander +140
Rai +160
Lowry +185
Conners +235
Clark +375
Harman +425
Bezuidenhout +425

Top 10:
Xander +325
Lowry +425
Conners +500

Good luck y'all
Nice looking card.

Fade Homa at all costs.
 
Wild front 9 for Spieth. He may be back. Might be some value on him for Augusta
 
The definition of a psycho score card.

His spot on my 'perma-yips' list is now being occupied by Hovland.
Yeah Hovland is in a bad place. He is entering Homa auto-fade territory. But today looked like vintage Spieth and he is now firmly on my radar for the Masters
 
Wild front 9 for Spieth. He may be back. Might be some value on him for Augusta
I read a great article on Jordan late last night. I almost placed him in a lineup.

Nope.

A Masters win by Spieth would be a HUGE moment for the tour during these weird times.

He just has the 'it' factor that the fans like a lot.

Crazy that we're a decade past his true breakout.
 
1-2 rd.1. -4.55u. All circled plays yesterday mostly lost so lucky to only be down 1 play I suppose.

Some surprising scores rd.1, have time today so gonna catch a lot of live action.

Rd.2-
Spartans ML / Keegan -140 v Fowler +130 4u (DK)
Morikawa -115 v Rors 5u (DK)

GL
 
1-2 rd.1. -4.55u. All circled plays yesterday mostly lost so lucky to only be down 1 play I suppose.

Some surprising scores rd.1, have time today so gonna catch a lot of live action.

Rd.2-
Spartans ML / Keegan -140 v Fowler +130 4u (DK)
Morikawa -115 v Rors 5u (DK)

GL
GL Lao ...
 
Live rd.2 add- X over 68.5 -140, 1 under thru 1. -140 4u (FD)

Might go birdie birdie start but expect errors down the stretch. Likely to add if it gets down to 67.5, assuming it’s available.
 
Players Rd2

1u each

Chandler--Top 20 +1450
..steady rd1 with decent SG metrics and only a few strokes out...looks like value to me

Dahmen O 3.5 bird or better -110
..couldn't get any putts to fall in rd1, looking for better luck with the flat stick today

0.5u

Speith--KP on 17 +700 (out of a group of 9 players: Lowry; Henley; JT; Hovland; Deki; Wyndham; Iceberg; Walker)
..fun little wager to keep track of for the day
 
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