2021 NHL Playoffs

gsro

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
The Stanley Cup Finals has arrived!!!

Pretty pumped with a very interesting season we just witnessed. There were times I loved the baseball series scheduling and then times when the dominant teams were just making it boring to even watch. It’s really sad that we’re going to get the Toronto/Montreal series without any fans but there are other great series we might not always get: battle of Florida, Chara against the B’s (we didn’t see this coming), I think Colorado/St. Louis may be a little more competitive than most think all depends on Binnington for them.

Some quick notes which were highlighted in the other thread

  • Stamkos and Kuch are back for the Lightning
  • Leafs and Habs are the only team to play back to backs between game 3 and game 4
  • Carlson is back for Washington with Oshie, Kuznetsov and Samsonov all on the mend
SC Finals Futures
Toronto Maple Leafs, 6.50
Vegas Golden Knights, 7.50
Tampa Bay Lightning, 8.50
Pittsburgh Penguins, 14.00

Pretty much, those are the four teams that I see coming out of each of their respective divisions. A little disrespect to Pittsburgh, they look pretty good to me. You're also getting a Malkin who pretty much didn't play half the season. TB we're getting Stamkos and Kuch back (Stammer might get hurt again though). Leafs know the play book on McDavid/Draisatl. Vegas no more cap concerns and can dress exactly who they want

Round 1 Futures
Washington +1.5, 1.75 (series)
Washington to win series, 2.35
Pittsburgh to win series, 1.75
Vegas -1.5, 1.83 (series)
Nashville +1.5, 2.18 (series)
 
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Minnesota, as mentioned, has been a luck box of success throughout the year,
 
Cant wait for tomorrow, playoffs with a crowd too in the american series is gonna be great

Love the futures, I'm hoping for a leafs win this year, just a fun team to watch

Good luck all post season!
 
guaranteeed said:
Cant wait for tomorrow, playoffs with a crowd too in the american series is gonna be great

Love the futures, I'm hoping for a leafs win this year, just a fun team to watch

Good luck all post season!
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It would be a Toronto thing to win during the pandemic wouldn't it? Florida/Tampa is going to be fire and I can't wait to see the penalties and hits in that game with full capacity in Florida I think? Let's get the money though!
 
PlayoffsWLP+/-
Sides1001.07
Totals0000
Parlays0000
Props0000
Playoffs1001.07
 
Would keep an eye out on Brian Doumilin; took a shot to the foot and was hobbling a bit. Bigger piece to that D with him in the line up
 
gsro said:
May 17
Boston ML, 1.81; love me some ABAB type betting in the playoffs
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Man I thought about chasing my Boston game one loss figuring no way they get swept. But Jesus were they outplayed seven ways to Sunday last night, game should've been 5-1. In my defense I thought Oshie was going to be out.
 
Zeke said:
Man I thought about chasing my Boston game one loss figuring no way they get swept. But Jesus were they outplayed seven ways to Sunday last night, game should've been 5-1. In my defense I thought Oshie was going to be out.
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Did we watch the same game? Boston created a lot of good chances, Tuuka would actually be the worst rated from what I saw peak the xG stats by line. From Teed:

Pasta line: 88.6 xG% at 5-on-5 in Game 1
Krejci line: 53.3 xG%
DeBrusk line: 36.4 xG%
Kuraly line: 18:9 xG%
 
PlayoffsWLP+/-
Sides2100.93
Totals0000
Parlays020-2
Props0000
Playoffs230-1.07
 
gsro said:
May 17
Boston ML, 1.81; love me some ABAB type betting in the playoffs
Click to expand...
Parlay: Over 9.5 CWS/Boston ML: 3.37. Played the single over 8.5(see MLB discussion) but by the time I decided to parlay it today the game moved a whole run.
 
gsro said:
Did we watch the same game? Boston created a lot of good chances, Tuuka would actually be the worst rated from what I saw peak the xG stats by line. From Teed:

Pasta line: 88.6 xG% at 5-on-5 in Game 1
Krejci line: 53.3 xG%
DeBrusk line: 36.4 xG%
Kuraly line: 18:9 xG%
Click to expand...
I was hitting the beers pretty good but yes, same game. Felt to me that attacking zone time was heavily tilted towards WSH & hitting most definitely favored WSH.

And I have to admit I have no idea what that stat means with the xG% but I do know that a combined 4 SOG from your top three does not cut it.
 
Zeke said:
I was hitting the beers pretty good but yes, same game. Felt to me that attacking zone time was heavily tilted towards WSH & hitting most definitely favored WSH.

And I have to admit I have no idea what that stat means with the xG% but I do know that a combined 4 SOG from your top three does not cut it.
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Yea, I didn't mean any disrespect by my comment in case it came off like that, below is essentially what xG% means:

  1. xG value is the statistical chance of the unblocked shot to become a goal.
  2. xG is literally the most direct way to measure shot quality that exists, given the current Play-By-Play data
  3. While Corsi and Fenwick count shot attempts, they don't account for quality of the shot. Expected +/- considers the shot location, and uses league-wide averages to determine the likelihood of that shot being a goal. It doesn't factor in whether the shot actually resulted in a goal or not. Instead, it's giving a sense of shot quality by looking at the odds of scoring a goal from that location.
 
May 18
Pittsburgh ML, 1.78
Vegas/Pittsburgh: 2.84-1
Tampa Bay ML, 1.81

May 19
Winnipeg ML, 2.30
 
gsro said:
Yea, I didn't mean any disrespect by my comment in case it came off like that, below is essentially what xG% means:

  1. xG value is the statistical chance of the unblocked shot to become a goal.
  2. xG is literally the most direct way to measure shot quality that exists, given the current Play-By-Play data
  3. While Corsi and Fenwick count shot attempts, they don't account for quality of the shot. Expected +/- considers the shot location, and uses league-wide averages to determine the likelihood of that shot being a goal. It doesn't factor in whether the shot actually resulted in a goal or not. Instead, it's giving a sense of shot quality by looking at the odds of scoring a goal from that location.
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None taken man, all good.

Thanks for the explanation. Maybe I'm an overly critical fan but everyone I've talked to around here shares in my thoughts. Hoping your read is spot-on for tonight though. GL!
 
Zeke said:
None taken man, all good.

Thanks for the explanation. Maybe I'm an overly critical fan but everyone I've talked to around here shares in my thoughts. Hoping your read is spot-on for tonight though. GL!
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Probably like you said, fan being a fan. And Boston fans are a special kind too aren’t they hehe
 
gsro said:
Parlay: Over 9.5 CWS/Boston ML: 3.37. Played the single over 8.5(see MLB discussion) but by the time I decided to parlay it today the game moved a whole run.
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Taylor Hall AGS, 6.50
 
Some of the AGS (anytime goal scorer) props I'm looking at. I won't typically take them pre game unless I love them. But in the playoffs I especially like to see how the game is going. For example, Taylor Hall was flying last night and controlling the puck and play while he was on the ice and getting a lot of opportunities. Mackinnon was being fed every other opportunity and they were peppering Binnington so those 2 made sense for me. Ryan O'Reilly, for STL to have a chance, needs to be engaged and producing and thought going down 1-0 and pushing back he would be one of the catalysts, turns out Avs just skated around STL.
 
some AGS props I'm eyeing for today but will wait till ingame:

Pitt/NY
Anthony Beauvilier, 4.00
Jason Zucker, 4.75

Veg/Min
Chandler Stephenson, 4.00
Shea Theodore, 5.00
Mark Stone, 2.65

TB/FLA
Yanni Gourde, 3.60
Anthony Cirelli, 4.60
Anthony Duclair, 4.00
Carter Verhaeghe, 4.00
 
Funny that you just posted these, I was just about to ask your take on this prop. Seeing JG Pageau at 1.5, over -135. Looking at his stats from Sunday, 21:28 TOI (highest of any NYI forward), 5 SOG, 2A, 1G & +/- of 2. Any reason in the world he would not continue to see time & rip shots?
 
Zeke said:
Funny that you just posted these, I was just about to ask your take on this prop. Seeing JG Pageau at 1.5, over -135. Looking at his stats from Sunday, 21:28 TOI (highest of any NYI forward), 5 SOG, 2A, 1G & +/- of 2. Any reason in the world he would not continue to see time & rip shots?
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one reason will be tightening up of the defenses, but I dn't know if that's enough. NYI sometimes play like the Hurricanes where they'll just start throwing pucks at the net for the sake of a shot to create rebounds. That said, I took Beauvilier and Pulock for 2 reasons; there's goign to be penalties and Pulock gets shots through from the blue line on 5v5. Beau was flying and creating a lot of chances.

They had 5 penalties combined and the top unit for NYI on the PP is Eberle/Pageau/Beau and the point is Dobson/Barzal. It's worth a look really

Hope that helps @Zeke
 
Thanks for the insight. Usually when I like a play "too much" it doesn't end well. And only two shots seems too easy, so I should tread lightly.
 
Love having him on the team but I have no idea why someone doesn't just pound the ever-living shit out of him. He's such a prick & takes some of the dumbest after the whistle penalties.

I won't fade my B's in playoffs but Caps +140? Their last 10 or 11 playoff games all one score games with 7 going to OT. That's value if you ask me.
 
Zeke said:
Love having him on the team but I have no idea why someone doesn't just pound the ever-living shit out of him. He's such a prick & takes some of the dumbest after the whistle penalties.

I won't fade my B's in playoffs but Caps +140? Their last 10 or 11 playoff games all one score games with 7 going to OT. That's value if you ask me.
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A guy you want on your team but hate when he's not, a la Wilson. He's also gotten so many penalties from reactions after whistles as well. I'm already +135 on the series and have +1.5 Washington...For the sake of my pittsburgh future, I want these 2 to beat the living shit out of each other lol
 
Seven games & some beat up players is not a stretch but the same could well happen in the other series.

FWIW the lowest price on a game to go to OT tonight is +315. Can bet all three & only need one to hit to cash in at least a +115 profit. Seems like this year more than years past, with such familiarity the first two rounds could see more OT games than we're used to.
 
www.thescore.com

Canadiens to host 2,500 fans starting May 28

The Montreal Canadiens are the first NHL team north of the border to announce plans to let fans back into their building.The team will permit 2,500 spectators to attend games at the Bell Centre beginning May 28.The Canadiens begin their opening-round playoff series against the Toronto Maple...
www.thescore.com www.thescore.com

Habs will allow fans in their building. Makes it game 6 in the series
 
Zeke said:
Seven games & some beat up players is not a stretch but the same could well happen in the other series.

FWIW the lowest price on a game to go to OT tonight is +315. Can bet all three & only need one to hit to cash in at least a +115 profit. Seems like this year more than years past, with such familiarity the first two rounds could see more OT games than we're used to.
Click to expand...
I think you're onto something with the familiarity angle, really don't see why not. The east games are more likely to go into OT IMO
 
gsro said:
May 18
Pittsburgh ML, 1.78
Vegas/Pittsburgh: 2.84-1
Tampa Bay ML, 1.81

May 19
Winnipeg ML, 2.30
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May 19 Continued:
Mackinnon sog over 4.5, 2.20
Rantanan sog over 2.5, 1.55
Landeskog sog over 2.5, 1.83
Washington ML, 2.52

I expect the same pace as the last game and a ton of shots on Binnington.
 
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