BetCrimes1984
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now she has to serve it out from that ugly end
2016 Tennis Season - Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GatorsLeafsBills
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BetCrimes1984
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Kuzzy all of a sudden looks amazingly weak.
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it's now all keyed round her getting a good 1st serve in.
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2nd serve, point lost
15-30
15-30
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15-40
we not done yet
we not done yet
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great fh, lol, another BP chance
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2/14 on BP chances: that stat is the story of her match
BetCrimes1984
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As long as Azarenka doesn't play out a marathon SF, she'll do to Kuzzy what Timea has failed to. Best return game in the WTA will kill the Russian's serves: won't be 2/14 for her.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
2/14 is just stupid. Russian went 4/7 on her BP chances.
Even though this was 2 sets, Kuzzy still spent another 1:57 on court in the hottest conditions of the tourney so far.
Even though this was 2 sets, Kuzzy still spent another 1:57 on court in the hottest conditions of the tourney so far.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Miami WTA Final
Not much to add to what I previously wrote about Kuznetsova in my SF write-up, so here I'll cover the differences between Bacsinszky & Azarenka, as per what kind of challenge they pose/d to the Russian.
Serve
Bacsinszky's serve was never going to be a weapon against Kuzzy. She got a high percentage of 1st serves in (certainly not where she lost the match), but for her game it's really only a way to start the point. Azarenka's 1st serve, however, has steadily improved to the point where it is a real weapon in and of itself. Her 2nd serve is still the biggest hole in her game (& where Konta completely lost the plot in her approach to counteracting it). Kuznetsova's sole chance in this final comes via Vika delivering a low 1st serve %.
Return game
Bacsinszky repeatedly made UE on weak Kuznetsova 2nd serves, allowing Kuznetsova to win 52% of her 2nd serve points in their SF. Without a doubt this is where Bacsinszky lost the match. So many of those 2nd serve failures for the Swiss came in 1st set break point chances. In Azarenka, we have the best returner in the women's game. Kuznetsova isn't going to be gifted the UE count on her 2nd serves here that she got in her SF.
Ground game
Azarenka's ground game is stronger than Bacsinszky's for the sheer fact that she's dangerous from both wings, whereas Bacsinszky's got a much weaker fh, so she really only hurts people from her bh (unless they're significantly out of position for her to be able to nail a fh winner). Time and again Kuznetsova quite intelligently pounded Bacsinszky's fh side on important points, and visibly frustrated the Swiss. She has no wing to target in this match to allow her 'breathing room' within rallies.
Surface
Bacsinszky's game is most perfectly suited to clay courts (her best result in her breakthough 2015 was that French Open SF against Serena, where she won the 1st set and was up 3-2 & a break in the 2nd before losing the last 10 games of the match). So Kuznetsova was lucky to face someone whose absolute best wouldn't be shown on a HC. Not so here: Azarenka's a HC specialist (she's made 4 finals in HC Slams vs. no finals in non-HC Slams).
Previous Meetings
Kuznetsova took a 2-0 hth record (incl. 1 retirement) into her match against Bacsinszky. While both those results came before the Swiss had found her way on tour, there was certainly nothing negative to weigh on the Russian's mind entering their SF. Here Azarenka has won the last 3 matches between the two since Kuznetsova's heyday period ended (as I mentioned in my previous post, that period being 2006-2009). Those results...
View attachment 40719
In 3 of the 4 sets they've played on HC, Kuznetsova has had her shit well & truly pushed in. The one competitive match they've had was on Azarenka's worst surface/Kuzzy's best surface: yet even then the Russian still couldn't manage to win a single set. So the Russian enters this match knowing it's been 7 years since she's had any answers to offer the questions the Belarusian's game has asked of her.
---
Under normal circumstances, this would be an extremely tough match-up for Kuznetsova at this stage of her career. You add in the workload she's had to go through to get here and it becomes a nightmare match-up. Once again her only hope is to win the 1st set: as for her chances of that? Azarenka has dropped only 1 of 15 1st sets at elite WTA tournament matches this year (that sole instance was in her SF loss to Kerber at the AO). Unlike the Russian, she didn't drop her 1st set when beating a Serena (& a Serena who was fully engaged in the match they were playing). I struggle to see how the Russian wins more than 6-7 games if Azarenka produces anything like the form she's shown over her last 3 matches (all 3 of those opponents she beat - Muguruza, Konta & Kerber - I'd pick in a heartbeat to beat Kuznetsova).
Under, laying the games or a 2-0 sets win are the bets I'm considering here. I'll make my mind up close to game time. Hopefully it's a stinking hot again, time to see this Russian bitch finally wilt under the scorching sun & scorching Azarenka returns.
Not much to add to what I previously wrote about Kuznetsova in my SF write-up, so here I'll cover the differences between Bacsinszky & Azarenka, as per what kind of challenge they pose/d to the Russian.
Serve
Bacsinszky's serve was never going to be a weapon against Kuzzy. She got a high percentage of 1st serves in (certainly not where she lost the match), but for her game it's really only a way to start the point. Azarenka's 1st serve, however, has steadily improved to the point where it is a real weapon in and of itself. Her 2nd serve is still the biggest hole in her game (& where Konta completely lost the plot in her approach to counteracting it). Kuznetsova's sole chance in this final comes via Vika delivering a low 1st serve %.
Return game
Bacsinszky repeatedly made UE on weak Kuznetsova 2nd serves, allowing Kuznetsova to win 52% of her 2nd serve points in their SF. Without a doubt this is where Bacsinszky lost the match. So many of those 2nd serve failures for the Swiss came in 1st set break point chances. In Azarenka, we have the best returner in the women's game. Kuznetsova isn't going to be gifted the UE count on her 2nd serves here that she got in her SF.
Ground game
Azarenka's ground game is stronger than Bacsinszky's for the sheer fact that she's dangerous from both wings, whereas Bacsinszky's got a much weaker fh, so she really only hurts people from her bh (unless they're significantly out of position for her to be able to nail a fh winner). Time and again Kuznetsova quite intelligently pounded Bacsinszky's fh side on important points, and visibly frustrated the Swiss. She has no wing to target in this match to allow her 'breathing room' within rallies.
Surface
Bacsinszky's game is most perfectly suited to clay courts (her best result in her breakthough 2015 was that French Open SF against Serena, where she won the 1st set and was up 3-2 & a break in the 2nd before losing the last 10 games of the match). So Kuznetsova was lucky to face someone whose absolute best wouldn't be shown on a HC. Not so here: Azarenka's a HC specialist (she's made 4 finals in HC Slams vs. no finals in non-HC Slams).
Previous Meetings
Kuznetsova took a 2-0 hth record (incl. 1 retirement) into her match against Bacsinszky. While both those results came before the Swiss had found her way on tour, there was certainly nothing negative to weigh on the Russian's mind entering their SF. Here Azarenka has won the last 3 matches between the two since Kuznetsova's heyday period ended (as I mentioned in my previous post, that period being 2006-2009). Those results...
View attachment 40719
In 3 of the 4 sets they've played on HC, Kuznetsova has had her shit well & truly pushed in. The one competitive match they've had was on Azarenka's worst surface/Kuzzy's best surface: yet even then the Russian still couldn't manage to win a single set. So the Russian enters this match knowing it's been 7 years since she's had any answers to offer the questions the Belarusian's game has asked of her.
---
Under normal circumstances, this would be an extremely tough match-up for Kuznetsova at this stage of her career. You add in the workload she's had to go through to get here and it becomes a nightmare match-up. Once again her only hope is to win the 1st set: as for her chances of that? Azarenka has dropped only 1 of 15 1st sets at elite WTA tournament matches this year (that sole instance was in her SF loss to Kerber at the AO). Unlike the Russian, she didn't drop her 1st set when beating a Serena (& a Serena who was fully engaged in the match they were playing). I struggle to see how the Russian wins more than 6-7 games if Azarenka produces anything like the form she's shown over her last 3 matches (all 3 of those opponents she beat - Muguruza, Konta & Kerber - I'd pick in a heartbeat to beat Kuznetsova).
Under, laying the games or a 2-0 sets win are the bets I'm considering here. I'll make my mind up close to game time. Hopefully it's a stinking hot again, time to see this Russian bitch finally wilt under the scorching sun & scorching Azarenka returns.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Due to circumstances couldn't be around for the final. Looking at the stats, amazing to see Azarenka didn't even play well. Her 1st serving by her own recent standards was abysmal (48% in the 1st set:rofl
. Had she been at top form for that match, Kuznetsova wouldn't have won more than 2 games. Congrats all ml, Under, spread and straight sets bettors: won't get many other easier wins in a semi- or final this season.
. Had she been at top form for that match, Kuznetsova wouldn't have won more than 2 games. Congrats all ml, Under, spread and straight sets bettors: won't get many other easier wins in a semi- or final this season.
BetCrimes1984
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Another 'Kuznetsova' scenario is in play Friday on the clay @Charleston.
Yulia Putintseva plays off a 3 hr 3 min match (3 sets) on Thursday. Prior to that, her match on Wednesday lasted 2:21 (3 sets) & her match on Monday lasted 1:40 (2 sets). So that's 5:24 on court the last 2 days (62 games played), and 7:04 on court over the last 4 days (81 games played). By any standard that's a decent workload, but also of note are the players she's knocked off: Nara, Lisicki & then Venus.
Putintseva, 21, is ranked 61, and a quick look at her history tells me she's never knocked off three 'name players' in consecutive matches. How has she managed the last 2? Venus was a mere 7-6 on clay since '14 prior to playing the Russian, and Lisicki was a mere 9-8 (Nara, 10-9). Not one opponent in any way accomplished on clay, yet the Russian's struggled with them all (barring 1 set: Nara's effort gave way after losing a 1st set tiebreak = 2nd set got bageled).
Appearing as the number 3 'name player' after Lisicki & Venus is Sara Errani, whose shitty pop-gun brickwalling game just happens to find its best results on the surface featuring here. Errani is 38-9 on clay vs. players other than Serena since 2014 (that's an 80.9 % win rate). Errani had a bye the 1R, so has played less than half the games (38) & been on court less than half the time (2:53) than what the Russian has through to this point. In their 1 previous meeting Errani won 6-1 6-1 (on clay, no less), but that was 2+ years back when the Ruskie was still finding her way on tour so really doesn't mean as much as it might. My usual concern with Errani is her opponent's ability to blow her off the court, but here Putintseva's physical attributes are all but a mirror image of the Italian's: both 5'4" tall & weighing 59-60 kg.
I'm not inclined to back Errani in straight sets or the Under (her game isn't good enough to blow Putintseva off the court if the Russian still has something significant to give, which is the real bummer for this situation. A more powerful player = less belief the Russian would be capable of winning a set), but I'd certainly consider the Italian's ml as worth finding a parlay for (ideal way to approach this one imo is via live betting: being the late match it should be available). If the Russian flukes her way past this hurdle, then she's certainly a 'dead woman walking' in her next match vs. either Siegemund or (more likely) Vesnina.
Yulia Putintseva plays off a 3 hr 3 min match (3 sets) on Thursday. Prior to that, her match on Wednesday lasted 2:21 (3 sets) & her match on Monday lasted 1:40 (2 sets). So that's 5:24 on court the last 2 days (62 games played), and 7:04 on court over the last 4 days (81 games played). By any standard that's a decent workload, but also of note are the players she's knocked off: Nara, Lisicki & then Venus.
Putintseva, 21, is ranked 61, and a quick look at her history tells me she's never knocked off three 'name players' in consecutive matches. How has she managed the last 2? Venus was a mere 7-6 on clay since '14 prior to playing the Russian, and Lisicki was a mere 9-8 (Nara, 10-9). Not one opponent in any way accomplished on clay, yet the Russian's struggled with them all (barring 1 set: Nara's effort gave way after losing a 1st set tiebreak = 2nd set got bageled).
Appearing as the number 3 'name player' after Lisicki & Venus is Sara Errani, whose shitty pop-gun brickwalling game just happens to find its best results on the surface featuring here. Errani is 38-9 on clay vs. players other than Serena since 2014 (that's an 80.9 % win rate). Errani had a bye the 1R, so has played less than half the games (38) & been on court less than half the time (2:53) than what the Russian has through to this point. In their 1 previous meeting Errani won 6-1 6-1 (on clay, no less), but that was 2+ years back when the Ruskie was still finding her way on tour so really doesn't mean as much as it might. My usual concern with Errani is her opponent's ability to blow her off the court, but here Putintseva's physical attributes are all but a mirror image of the Italian's: both 5'4" tall & weighing 59-60 kg.
I'm not inclined to back Errani in straight sets or the Under (her game isn't good enough to blow Putintseva off the court if the Russian still has something significant to give, which is the real bummer for this situation. A more powerful player = less belief the Russian would be capable of winning a set), but I'd certainly consider the Italian's ml as worth finding a parlay for (ideal way to approach this one imo is via live betting: being the late match it should be available). If the Russian flukes her way past this hurdle, then she's certainly a 'dead woman walking' in her next match vs. either Siegemund or (more likely) Vesnina.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
There's a bet at Stuttgart whose price I perceive as holding some value, and involves my Spanish money-train aka sexy legs.
Muguruza to win 2-1 over Babos (+300)
Watched a couple of Timea Babos matches (via live betting) over the last 2 months, which fortunately had informative commentators who relayed facts mixed with opinion painting the picture of this being her breakthrough year (she turns 23 on May 10th; first Slam = 2012 FO). This season she's claimed a number of name scalps much higher ranked than herself (Kar. Pliskova, Errani), pushed another couple of name players hard (lost 3rd sets vs. Kerber & Vinci), plus beat a player in excellent form herself (Heather Watson). She's also faced Muguruza once (hc), losing 6-2 7-5 (this match was closer than it looks: Mugu went 3/3 in BP chances vs. Babos' 0/5). Babos has spent little time on clay before this year (0-3 L2 years), but is 4-2 this season. Muguruza on clay? All you need to know is she beat Serena 6-2 6-2 at the French: on her day she can obliterate the best. The only players to beat Mugu on clay last year were Safarova (QF of the French, Saffy made the final), Kuznetsova (clay is her best surface, and the match was in the shadow of the French Open; I'm always wary of weighting pre-Slam tourney results too heavily), Mladenovic (two tiebreak sets, 2 weeks out from the French) & Halep (clay arguably her best surface, given her only Slam final appearance has been at the French).
What I like here is Muguruza is not only playing off a 1R bye, where Timea has at least had some court time (beating Lisicki 7-6, 6-3, the German being at home put up a better than usual fight), but that Mugu's last tourney play was 4 weeks ago (having played only 2 Fed Cup matches inbetween times against a couple of old, soft-hitting Italian pushers who combined to not trouble her at all in 3 of 4 sets played, where Timea has a decent serve and is no brickwaller). I think Timea has a shot of catching a Muguruza not up to delivering her very best over 2 straight sets, but at the same time I think Mugu's greater prowess on clay + her natural greater ability/talent should see her through come any 3rd set.
Muguruza to win 2-1 over Babos (+300)
Watched a couple of Timea Babos matches (via live betting) over the last 2 months, which fortunately had informative commentators who relayed facts mixed with opinion painting the picture of this being her breakthrough year (she turns 23 on May 10th; first Slam = 2012 FO). This season she's claimed a number of name scalps much higher ranked than herself (Kar. Pliskova, Errani), pushed another couple of name players hard (lost 3rd sets vs. Kerber & Vinci), plus beat a player in excellent form herself (Heather Watson). She's also faced Muguruza once (hc), losing 6-2 7-5 (this match was closer than it looks: Mugu went 3/3 in BP chances vs. Babos' 0/5). Babos has spent little time on clay before this year (0-3 L2 years), but is 4-2 this season. Muguruza on clay? All you need to know is she beat Serena 6-2 6-2 at the French: on her day she can obliterate the best. The only players to beat Mugu on clay last year were Safarova (QF of the French, Saffy made the final), Kuznetsova (clay is her best surface, and the match was in the shadow of the French Open; I'm always wary of weighting pre-Slam tourney results too heavily), Mladenovic (two tiebreak sets, 2 weeks out from the French) & Halep (clay arguably her best surface, given her only Slam final appearance has been at the French).
What I like here is Muguruza is not only playing off a 1R bye, where Timea has at least had some court time (beating Lisicki 7-6, 6-3, the German being at home put up a better than usual fight), but that Mugu's last tourney play was 4 weeks ago (having played only 2 Fed Cup matches inbetween times against a couple of old, soft-hitting Italian pushers who combined to not trouble her at all in 3 of 4 sets played, where Timea has a decent serve and is no brickwaller). I think Timea has a shot of catching a Muguruza not up to delivering her very best over 2 straight sets, but at the same time I think Mugu's greater prowess on clay + her natural greater ability/talent should see her through come any 3rd set.
edou1x
Pretty much a regular
will perhaps pull the trigger on fognini +5.5 or O19.5 games. fognini tends to raise his level vs strong opponents and not being focus vs inferior ranked opponents.
when i like underdogs, i never know if it's better to take +1.5 sets, the over or games handicapp. perhaps i should split unit over each ones. cause so many times i see a live dog losing a winning a Tight first set 7-6 only to collapse and lose 6-1/6-2/6-0 the second or third set. usually the more the match lasts the more the favorite makes the difference physically and mentally
when i like underdogs, i never know if it's better to take +1.5 sets, the over or games handicapp. perhaps i should split unit over each ones. cause so many times i see a live dog losing a winning a Tight first set 7-6 only to collapse and lose 6-1/6-2/6-0 the second or third set. usually the more the match lasts the more the favorite makes the difference physically and mentally
aire +5, Kerber and verdasco so far
BetCrimes1984
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Roger Federer's time is winding down...
edou1x
Pretty much a regular
pretty normal at 35 to get these problems. the most amazing was making 2 grand slams finals at 33/34 without losing a single set and taking 1 set from world number 1 in each final. at 33 and more djokovic and nadal won't make grand slams finals. their game is based on mental/physical strength . roger made finals with easy/free points on his first serve essentially. it's vital to have a good serve to finish well your career.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
I'm pretty much preoccupied with other things this first week, but will be around for the second week. Bad weather interrupting matches is generally bad news in my book: imo helps the faves/does no favours for the dogs, and in the early couple of rounds I'm usually looking more for spots to bet the latter as far as SU betting goes so it's no great loss to just be observing as of now.
One result that is in the books does pretty much confirm a pov I arrived at awhile ago: Roberta Vinci is done. Think her competitive fires are dying quickly, my guess is she'll give up at the end of this year.
edou1x
Pretty much a regular
issue in RG debate is potential retractable roof is planned in 2020 at best whereas other grand slams have made more progress so far.
i'm in paris and weather is very cold generally speaking not only beacause of rain. you feel in february/march not in june (start of summer).
Clay is heavier and is slower than usual. it doesn't help big servers. lift has less effect and is more under control with less spin.
been carefully reading pinnacle betting article concerning tennis and it is usually very interesting.
here are some key aspects/systems/trends/
1)Bet against players in GS, out of TOP50 after they won a 5th set match in previous round (-32%ROI) (http://www.tennisratings.co.uk/article---the-effect-of-5)
2) For live betting and tennis is a good sport to bet live. can't predict anything but taking murray today down 2 sets vs stepanek@1.61 was gold because of 37 years old qualified and tired legs of Stepanek
3)Bet against players in GS, out of TOP50 after they won a 5th set match in previous round (-32%ROI) http://www.tennisratings.co.uk/article---the-effect-of-5
fatigue factor is most important in GS ,especially on clay where rallyes/points last usually longer. spending more than 3.5 hours or 5 sets is usually a big burden in forthcoming rounds. look what happened to djokovic last year in final after battling vs murray during 5 sets or losing in Rome vs murray after 3 hours vs nishikori.
4) Bet on players that won 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] and 4th set as well as 3rd and 4th set (56% win in 5th set)
5)Bet on players that won the 4th set 4+ games margin (6-0,6-1 or 6-2). They win 5th set more than 60% of the time. (http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/who-wins-a-deciding-set-in-mens-tennis)
6)BEt against underdogs ATP/WTA in grand slams of a 10-8+ final set previous match up win (-30%ROI)
è)) BEt against upset winners in grand slams in their following match( player was 50+ ranked vs a 20- ranked player in previous upset win) these upset winners are -35%ROI in ATP/WTA
(http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/be...perform-following-a-shock-win-in-a-grand-slam)
good luck. personnaly for capping, think previous H2H is more important thant in other sports. knowing surface is key , weather conditions,time spent on court. By looking at previous H2H is not only final winner result but final box score with stats if you are interested in ATS or O/U bets
i'm in paris and weather is very cold generally speaking not only beacause of rain. you feel in february/march not in june (start of summer).
Clay is heavier and is slower than usual. it doesn't help big servers. lift has less effect and is more under control with less spin.
been carefully reading pinnacle betting article concerning tennis and it is usually very interesting.
here are some key aspects/systems/trends/
1)Bet against players in GS, out of TOP50 after they won a 5th set match in previous round (-32%ROI) (http://www.tennisratings.co.uk/article---the-effect-of-5)
2) For live betting and tennis is a good sport to bet live. can't predict anything but taking murray today down 2 sets vs stepanek@1.61 was gold because of 37 years old qualified and tired legs of Stepanek
3)Bet against players in GS, out of TOP50 after they won a 5th set match in previous round (-32%ROI) http://www.tennisratings.co.uk/article---the-effect-of-5
fatigue factor is most important in GS ,especially on clay where rallyes/points last usually longer. spending more than 3.5 hours or 5 sets is usually a big burden in forthcoming rounds. look what happened to djokovic last year in final after battling vs murray during 5 sets or losing in Rome vs murray after 3 hours vs nishikori.
4) Bet on players that won 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] and 4th set as well as 3rd and 4th set (56% win in 5th set)
5)Bet on players that won the 4th set 4+ games margin (6-0,6-1 or 6-2). They win 5th set more than 60% of the time. (http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/who-wins-a-deciding-set-in-mens-tennis)
6)BEt against underdogs ATP/WTA in grand slams of a 10-8+ final set previous match up win (-30%ROI)
è)) BEt against upset winners in grand slams in their following match( player was 50+ ranked vs a 20- ranked player in previous upset win) these upset winners are -35%ROI in ATP/WTA
(http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/be...perform-following-a-shock-win-in-a-grand-slam)
good luck. personnaly for capping, think previous H2H is more important thant in other sports. knowing surface is key , weather conditions,time spent on court. By looking at previous H2H is not only final winner result but final box score with stats if you are interested in ATS or O/U bets
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Don't want to turn my thread into an in-game, so this is it:
Serena sweating like a pig into just the 8th game. Mladenovic making her work hard. Frenchwoman missed the easiest winner of her life with game pt for a 4-all scoreline, now struggling to hold serve.
Serena sweating like a pig into just the 8th game. Mladenovic making her work hard. Frenchwoman missed the easiest winner of her life with game pt for a 4-all scoreline, now struggling to hold serve.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
4-all
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CTG Big Brother
magnificent winner off a 1st serve, 0-30 Frenchie
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BP chance for a 5-4 lead and to serve for the set.
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big serve saves the Beast for now.
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BP chance #2
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BP chance #3...
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idiot runs round a bh and plants her fh into the bottom of the net, on a 2nd serve no less.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Beast then aces. Frenchie had her chance, and blew it.
BetCrimes1984
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Beast aces again to hold.
BetCrimes1984
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Mladenovic gets broken, so predictable after her failures of the previous game. 6-4 set.
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Over cashes 4 games into the 2nd set.
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CTG Big Brother
Mladenovic is playing some excellent tennis while being the 2nd best player on the court.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Mugu with 5 bh winners early. Her bh functioning well or not is always a key sign for her long term chances.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
10 minute service game & counting for Kuzzy
BetCrimes1984
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Mugu breaks, will serve for the set.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Impressive 1st set from the Spaniard, will need her to hit a lull for a few games to start the 2nd.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
bh winner count now 16-3 to Mugu
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Mugu with a comfortable win, and she didn't even play at her best.
edou1x
Pretty much a regular
like berdych a+money to upset ferrer. it's more a ferrer fade than backing berdych. just think that at 34 years old the spaniard is slightly declining. berdych won also last match on clay vs ferrer this year. The only issue might be the weather since clouds/rain make the clay slower which should benefit ferrer. in Madrid it's indoor clay. conditions are faster
