2016 Tennis Season - Discussion Thread

nbafan88 said:
Any thoughts on keys/kerber?
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I refuse to back Keys anymore, having done so a few times at good odds vs. decent opponents, and the mental midget bitch has shown nothing. Until she shows me she's grown up as a player (meaning her ground game shows consistency) and as an adult (re her mental midgetry) she'll see no more of my money. Kerber's ground game should ultimately prove too much here, unless Keys pulls out the kind of consistency I just alluded to as being absent. She has the power, the serve, and the physical attributes to compete against the best. She's just not yet proven she has the extra elements needed to put it together. When she has beaten other top players, it's usually because the latter had an off-day/night. Kerber is off a tough match, so that may well be the one opening for Keys. But after her failure at Indian Wells, I think Kerber feels like she has to do well here to "prove" her Aussie Open win wasn't a fluke (her 3rd set comeback against Babos was mightily impressive, given the Hungarian played some excellent tennis herself). I've live betting, so I'll approach the match via that channel. For those looking for a pre-match bet, I'd not advise anything. Keys is a lottery, and Kerber is off an effort which undermines my believing her doing what I'd think she'd do if she was off an easy outing (which would be beat Keys in straight sets, a close 1st followed by an easy 2nd).

We have a much bigger opportunity in 2 days, a match that involves the wrong player being favoured. But I'll cover my take on that one after today's matches are done.
 
Canes1 said:
Konta/Vika should be a good match
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It's going to be very instructive as to where Konta is. She's not played her best since her deep Aussie Open run, and I suspect that beating Azarenka is a bit beyond her abilities at the moment (her win over Vika at Wuhan involved the Bulgarian playing with a leg injury). Her one opening is Vika is off the Indian Wells win, and more immediately is off that tough tussle Muguruza gave her, so her tank at present can't contain as much gas as it usually does. I suspect this match will go like this: Vika wins the 1st set 6-2/6-3 then has a lull in the 2nd set, and that will be Konta's chance to make a match of it. If she can win the 2nd set to force a 3rd, Vika should struggle to show her best, making the final result a toss-up. Still, I expect Vika to be strong at the start; I'd take u9.5 games (at reasonable odds) for the 1st set as a pre-match bet if I had the option available.
 
3 games in: Konta has started extremely well, very impressive. I suspect Vika's tank maybe a bit emptier than I thought. Small bet already on Konta (+200).
 
Vika's served a number of DF indicating her serve isn't its best today (to me a sure sign of her tank not being full), but otherwise Konta's made too many UE so far to force a break.
 
Had a break point on a short slow 2nd serve and couldn't take her chance.

2 UE later Vika holds. Still too many UE on her ground game against Vika's serve, whereas on her own serve her UE count is almost non-existent.
 
Usually the way in the WTA. The moment a player fails with her initial BP chance/s, in her very next service game she herself gives up her own BP chances.

...back to deuce from 15-40...

Konta's first DF loses the game.
 
Another Konta BP chance to immediately level things back up.

Break point winner called in, challenged, and was out by a millimetre or 2. Not Konta's day.
 
that match is tom night..FYI.... i assume u like kooozy there.......was there yesterday thankfully weather held up.... boy Thiem is gonna be a force Novak played prob the worst i have ever seen 9 DF 15 break pt saved but Thiem really put pressure on em and can smoke it from baseline...... ill be at the matches tom night waiting for schedule to be released hopin i see kei/monfils although wont be disappointed to see missle/kyrgios
 
Noles4life said:
that match is tom night..FYI.... i assume u like kooozy there....
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No. I see Kuzzy favoured, and imo shouldn't be.


Konta had a 17-14 (+3) winner/UE count to Vika's 10-13 (-3) and also won 1 more point in the set (38 vs. 37), so how the hell did she lose it? Didn't take her BP chances (0/4 over 2 service games), where Vika did (1/3 in 1 service game).
 
If Konta is getting something tactically wrong, she's not coming in closer to take Vika's 2nd serves early. It's allowing the Bulgarian more time to return the ball, and it's her 2nd serve that is the real opening to break her. Critical error, and the commentators I'm listening to have highlighted it more than once.
 
They're mentioning it again in Vika's first service game of the 2nd set. Just not taking advantage of these slow 2nd serves, and it's killing her.
 
Going miles out then a massive deflection off the net near the pole allows the ball to just catch the far corner for a winner.
 
Vika's done the opposite of what I expected. She started slow and is coming home fast. She is at a level that's just a tad too much for Konta at this stage, as expected. Konta couldn't take advantage of that slow start basically because she tactically played the Bulgarian's 2nd serves completely wrong, which explains her going 0/4 on 1st set BP chances. 2nd set is pure one-way traffic. Konta's mentally imploding under Vika's constant pressure.
 
Interesting listening to the commentators. They nailed a few other tactical errors Konta made in this match besides her set-up to receive Vika's 2nd serves. If her coach is worth what's she's paying him, they'll surely have a video sit down sometime over the next few days and go over all the mistakes she made. They're without a doubt what allowed Vika to live with Konta's high level of play early when the Bulgarian herself wasn't up to her normal speed. Still, but for 1-2 millimetres Konta would've broken that 8th game of the 1st set, and everything from there could easily have been different.
 
Was impressed w Vikas level in the second set, but once Konta got broken early in the second, the wheels came off pretty quickly.
 
Kerber wins the 1st by the easy score of 6-3 after Keys got the first break and had BP chances for another. Same ole shit from the American, beautifully summed up by the female Euro commentator I'm listening to, who literally said Madison puts pressure on herself to win a point within her first 3-4 shots because the longer the rallies go she knows she's going to commit an UE: any woman with a competent ground game simply doesn't have that concern. When you're facing the best pusher going around like Kerber & you suffer from that problem, you're fucked. Kerber's leg wrapped up tight I think reflects Keys only hope from here, which is other factors potentially inhibit the German's ability to play her usual game.
 
I took Kerber -1.5, juice was 20 cents cheaper. Just can't reason taking a favorite on the ML in WTA if the spread is 1.5, I can't see the victor winning by one game very frequently
 
Peeps at my home book have backed Kerber to win the 4th game at -300 (line dropped to -380), that's how little they rate Keys.
 
Canes1 said:
Vika gonna steamroll kerber if she's hurt. Too much power and level is much higher.
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Doesn't look like she's physically compromised this 2nd set. Worst she looked was early on (when Keys managed the break).

But Vika is no doubt searching for revenge for the AO QF loss, so a desired hammering is well on the cards there.
 
nbafan88 said:
Great insights BC
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:shake:

----

Kuznetsova vs. Bacsinszky

For those not paying attention, Kuznetsova has required a 3rd set in all 4 of her matches to date in order to advance to the semi-final stage @Miami. But that as a stat only partly reveals the story. She's needed to win an average of 17.2 games & play an average of 30.0 games to advance this far, which has equated to a grand total of 9:42 hr/min of court time over the last 7 days. By comparison, Bacsinszky has required a 3rd set in only 2 of her 4 matches, needing to win an average of 13.7 games & play an average of 22.7 games to advance this far, which has equated to a grand total of 7:14 hr/min of court time over the last 7 days (and while both players played their first matches on the 25th, Bacs took to the court nearly 7 hours earlier for the start of her match than the Russian did, meaning not only has she had more recuperation time due to less playing time spent on court, but has that added "built-in" scheduling recuperation advantage of nearly 7 hours more).

So, given the above, even in normal circumstances where everything else between the 2 players about to meet was even, the physical/mental advantage would be seen to be - to whatever degree -with the player having had to expend less energy to advance to this point. But things "everywhere else" here are not even, not by a long shot.

Kuznetsova
2006-2009 was the Russians heyday on tour. In that time period she made 25 appearances in Slam+WTA mandatory events, advancing to 12 QF (48% rate), 10 SF (40% rate) and 7 F (28.0% rate). Since 2010 (up until prior to this Miami tournament) she's made 47 appearances in Slam+WTA mandatory events, advancing to 6 QF (12.7% rate), 1 SF (2.1% rate) & 1 F (2.1% rate: this SF/F combination was on a clay court, arguably her best surface as she's gotten older).

This rapid drop off in her ability to go deep in elite tournaments pretty much sings from the song book of many players who rapidly climb to be amongst the top ranks after joining the tour at a very young age (17 when she played in her first Slam, won her first F at age 20): they simply burn out early. She's been done pretty much nothing of note in elite tournies since she turned 24, which is right around when she won her second/last Slam (the '09 French). Another example in this drop-off can be seen in her HC results from the last 2 years. Between ages 29-30, only 7 of her 13 hardcourt losses (53.8%) were in straight sets. Since she's turned 30, 10 of her 12 hardcourt losses (83.3%) have been in straight sets. As she's aged, she's shown an ever greater propensity to be uncompetitive in losses.

So, we have a player past her best/showing her age & who is off a run of mammoth efforts to make the Miami semis. In light of these facts, it's a fair question I think to ask why didn't she falter before now? How did she beat Serena off 2 lengthy 3-setters, and then how did she beat Makarova off 3 lengthy 3-setters?

(1) In the case of the Serena result, I believe - and the match scoreline certainly backs me up - Serena didn't even care about performing at Miami. No doubt she was pissed at losing to Vika @Indian Wells, then here in her first match she put in a shitty effort vs. McHale (she failed to execute a MP when serving 5-4 up in the 2nd set, got broken & then got broken again to lose the set 7-5, ending up spending over 2 hours on court. IMO Serena's failure to finish off McHale quickly cured any thoughts she had of backing up her IW final making effort). Diyas she would usually kill, but Serena still needed to play out 22 games before the Kazak was beaten (only previous meeting? Serena won 6-2 6-0). The moment Kuzzy pushed her to a tiebreak in the 1st set of their 4R match, I think Serena understood the Russian wasn't going down without a fight, and decided enough was enough. Kuzzy broke her in 5 straight games bridging the 2nd & 3rd sets. No-one ever does that to an even half-interested Serena.

(2) In the case of the Makarova result, we saw the first signs of physical/mental fatigue from Kuzzy when she served for the 1st set at 40-0, 5-2 up. Makarova from there, after showing no signs at all of her usual ability, unbelievably reeled off 5 of the next 6 games to take the tiebreak. In the 2nd set Kuzzy again served to tie the match 1-all, and again was broken. But a crucial netcord in the next game & a little fatigue shown on her opponent's part saw Makarova broken and the need for a 3rd set. Here's now where I believe Kuzzy found the energy to propel her through the 3rd set to a win. During the sit down between sets, Makarova went off to the locker room and Kuzzy got angry with the umpire that she wasn't allowed the same courtesy (ump's reply? she didn't ask). In the delay waiting for Maka's return she then asked if she could talk to her coach - ump replied, you asked too late. She got pissed, talking to herself loudly, visibly not happy camper. She played with fire in that 3rd, and while her legs visibly wobbled at times in the heat & humidity (commentators wondered out loud if she'd be able to go on after some rallies), she pulled it out with some noticeable help from Makarova struggling with her own fitness issues (the latter has never been a great mover, and Kuzzy noticeably ran her round in that 3rd set).

Bacsinszky
As far as Bacsinszky goes, we have the younger player (26) moving towards her own peak on tour (2015 was her breakthrough year, after injuries when she was younger delayed her rise); someone who has enjoyed the much greater recuperation time thus far (important considering she herself is off 2 x 3-setters); someone whose game is designed to run opponents ragged (the worst sort of game Kuzzy would like to face: she'd much rather face a power hitter willing to risk UE for early winners leading to shorter rallies).

Frankly I think Kuzzy herself in all likelihood knows she played her final against Makarova, is just happy to reach only her second SF in an elite tourney this decade and will be content to receive the prize money that goes with the achievement. I'd expect her to fight for as long as her legs let her, but as soon as they go (which they must surely do given Bacs' style of play is going to make her fully feel the nearly 10 hours she's already spent on court in very short order) then her mental effort collapsing shouldn't be far behind, and from there she prob. mails the match: she has to win the 1st to have any chance. Whereas all Bacsinszky has to do from my pov is win 1 of the first 2 sets. She forces a 3rd and I'd have to wonder if Kuzzy was human if she had it in her to win a 5th straight 2+ hour/3-setter in Miami's humidity.


Bac ml (-105) medium bet
Bacs 2-0 sets (+200) small bet

 
had a feeling she was going to get burnt in that 12th game... failing to convert twice up 15-40..... koozy would have wilted after a 1st set loss..... now obv shes gonna be pumped hopefully timea can get a early break
 
Some really excellent play there at the end by the Russian, but at the current sit down she's quite agitated, having called out her coach. I can't speak Spanish, but it doesn't sound good on her part. He sounds like he's pleading with her.
 
Bacs still needs to 'just' win the 2nd, and imo the 3rd will be handed to her on a plate. As it stands, she might be handed the 2nd on a plate. She's changed her clothes, same thing she did after she lost the 1st to Halep. Then she came out playing completely better.
 
she saying she cant see the ball and the coach is tellin her to hit to timea FH and she said she wants to but on the serve she feels she expecting it thats y shes hitting it to his BH
 
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