2016 NFL Survivor discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Didn't see one already started, thought it would be good to discuss strategies etc, especially for someone like me who is only a casual observer and bettor of the NFL. I'm in a big survivor pool with a huge payout for the winner(s). This is the 2nd year I've done it. Last year, lost week 1. So far I've taken Green Bay and Carolina. Looking at week 3 now. Anybody have any thoughts? I'm thinking about picking the obvious semi-safe picks early on and let the herd thin out a bit and try to go on a run later, but not sure if that's the best plan or not. Would love to hear thoughts.

For week 3, looking at:

Miami, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Colts, and Cowboys

Do y'all try to save the better teams for later? Or just try to get in the second half of the season by any means necessary and try to get lucky?
 
I usually try to save better teams for the end but I understand just wanting to stay alive. Also, I never want the super obvious team each week or team I think the majority will be on...because that's the team I want to lose to knock everyone out...almost happened to Sea week #1.
 
Not sure I trust Dallas this week and Bears looked like shit yesterday, now short week...typical NFL setup
 
Mia looks too popular for a winless team even vs Cle and their 5th QB in 5 weeks dating back to last season.
 
I imagine most people in these pools look at the point spreads and pick the teams that are the largest favorites. So that's Miami and Seattle. I don't trust either of them. Leaning Tampa or Dallas right now. Kind of like NYG too
 
No Cincy?
I don't like Colts at all this season
Tough to trust Jags but maybe
I think you're onto something with TB
 
gps_3 said:
I imagine most people in these pools look at the point spreads and pick the teams that are the largest favorites. So that's Miami and Seattle. I don't trust either of them. Leaning Tampa or Dallas right now. Kind of like NYG too
Click to expand...
You are right about the large point spreads. I can see NYG, I used them last week though
 
Play2win said:
No Cincy?
I don't like Colts at all this season
Tough to trust Jags but maybe
I think you're onto something with TB
Click to expand...

Thought about Cincy, but they probably should have lost to NYJ and Denver's defense gives me pause. Think there are better chances to use them later, assuming I get there. I don't think the Ravens are very good, but like you said, can you trust Jax?

Part of me also thinks that if I'm going out early, it won't be because I picked a shitty team just trying to outsmart the rest of the pool
 
i dont get the save better teams for later method.

the point is to not knock yourself out before anyone else. so why are you giving yourself a disadvantage over the others, hoping they lose...??? It doesnt make any sense to me.

I think people who go this route, are thinking they are outsmarting everyone, when in reality, they are only outsmarting themselves. Just my 2 cents.


Denver at Cincy
Cleveland at Miami

Basically you are saying that Cincy has the same % as Cleveland does winning the game.

Any Given Sunday....no doubt, but taking a "shot" is not giving you any advantage over anyone else, only a disadvantage IMO.

GL

I say Miami
 
Why pick the same team as everyone when it's knockout style, I'd rather be different but that's just me. Are you trying to see how many weeks you can stay alive or trying to win it?
 
I guess ideally you would have a hybrid of the two. At some point you're going to have to reach. But you don't have to reach as much as you may think. I went through and did all 17 weeks, and I had some pretty good teams left over, like Arizona, Pittsburgh and a few others who could realistically be playoff teams. So if you want to pick the Patriots in week 4 or whatever, you're not resigning yourself to have to choose between the Rams and Browns in week 13
 
Bouncing out with the best teams still on the table is an enigma for me, hardly ever play survivor because I outthink myself. Use the good teams, "cap" later is the only thing I can offer
 
I'm with wiz, priority is to advance, and let the ones trying to pick games like cincy over denver to wittle away until future rounds. The "good" teams you are saving to the end will esstenially have the same win/loss rate as the teams people are viewing as "top" picks, why lower your chances of losing now, and never have an opportunity at those good teams.
 
I'm still scratching my head at the number of people who too Detroit & Oakland this past week. Those games were coin flips at best IMO. When there were teams like Denver & Carolina playing at home, the other two seem like ridiculous risks.
 
This weekend for example, there are three teams who fit my criteria, home & non division, plus they all play shitty teams. TB, Dallas & Miami. Miami being the lesser of the three but they play the worst team. Now given I feel all three have equal chances, I probably will do some looking ahead to see if any have possible future use. Can't imagine Miami will have a better chance like this again so will probably roll with them despite the fact TB should roll LA.
 
I will say the one and only time I have one a big survivor league is when I took the approach of just take the best matchup each week, regardless...every time I try to plan ahead or try to save a team, I lose.
Plus, opportunities and situations arise later in the year, where taking a team you wouldn't consider very good in week 3, may find themselves in a great situation down the line.


That said, I'm looking at GB, Miami, and TB...be weary of the Giants, they're having serious offensive issues and going up against a desperate team....
 
Definitely do not try and get cute early and save teams for later. Survive and advance and deal with who you have left later. You'll never be picking STL and Cleveland in a 17 week pool...and most are over by 15-16.

That said, I don't know how Miami isnt the play this week. They played 2 hard fought road games and showed good life in both and really should have won at SEA. Browns are obviously a mess and starting Kessler this week to boot. Probably never going to want to use Miami again so also get to save a better team for later.

2nd choice GB....2 tough roadies to start the year now coming home. Think they are like 20-1 or so at home against DET.

Can't use Seattle right now, their offense has looked so shitty and Gabbert has not been bad. Wouldn't shock me at all if SF was in this game late.
 
aplous said:
Definitely do not try and get cute early and save teams for later. Survive and advance and deal with who you have left later. You'll never be picking STL and Cleveland in a 17 week pool...and most are over by 15-16.

That said, I don't know how Miami isnt the play this week. They played 2 hard fought road games and showed good life in both and really should have won at SEA. Browns are obviously a mess and starting Kessler this week to boot. Probably never going to want to use Miami again so also get to save a better team for later.

2nd choice GB....2 tough roadies to start the year now coming home. Think they are like 20-1 or so at home against DET.

Can't use Seattle right now, their offense has looked so shitty and Gabbert has not been bad. Wouldn't shock me at all if SF was in this game late.
Click to expand...

Yeah I like Miami, just seems too obvious for some reason. But, sometime obvious is best. Not apples to apples, but I'm in a one and done golf pool every year, and I think it was last year where the most selected player won the event something like 11 times, which is a crazy thing in the post-Tiger golf world. I think it happened once this year.

I already used GB, but division games aren't my favorite ones to use. No way I trust Seattle right now. And wasn't SF the team that's had their # the last few years? I know it's a different team than the NFC Champ years, but I seem to remember SF going to Seattle and winning a few times in recent memory. I've got TB circled right now, but may switch to Miami.
 
miami is the clear play here, but the reason against that would just be that they are such a clear play that if you dont pick them and they lose you are going to get rid of a ton of the field.
 
doin this for the 1st time too gps

i pussed out and bought 2 teams( i hate when people do this....and when it is allowed, but i caved)

CLE was my "cute" pick.....and you saw what PHI did OTR to em

dont save any bullets is what a past winner told me


i cant pick SEA or CAR


anyone?
 
Most of these pools don't go the distance is correct...that's why else I would like to save "good" teams. The reason most don't go the distance is because the popular team of the week or "good" team lost. Just my strategy in these type of pools.
 
Yea AZ kid, I went with MIA

But those young CBs played their asses off....not sure if you see the game, but it was unreal. OBJ had a big drop, but the Saints CB Oppo #24 dropped a sure INT that led to the winning FG.
Was really impressive..
 
The guys doing mine take a small rip...like 5% I think.
They claim for the "work", but it's just a shitty way to justify raking imo....

They did this because a guy stopped one similar to the story posted that i haven't read yet.,,,,this pot more like 100k...
 
I'm going with Tampa Bay this weekend. The last three times the Rams have beaten Seattle, they've turned around and lost the next game (all on the road) by an average of 14.7 points -- 24-10 at Washington, 19-16 at San Francisco and 34-7 at Kansas City. Think Tampa bounces back from that embarrassment at Arizona and beats LA here.
 
My work pool I run..... GB is the top pick this week and its not even close.
Car, NYG, Sea, Dal, Ari & Mia are the other choices sprinkled around
 
Play2win said:
Mia looks too popular for a winless team even vs Cle and their 5th QB in 5 weeks dating back to last season.
Click to expand...

and that's who everyone is gonna have. I'm done with trying to outsmart people, I just want to survive so I've gone SEA>CAR and now will have GB.

I'd take SEA on your list, actually in order from who i want least it'd be MIA>IND>DAL>TB>SEA
 
TRoe15 said:
I'm going with Tampa Bay this weekend. The last three times the Rams have beaten Seattle, they've turned around and lost the next game (all on the road) by an average of 14.7 points -- 24-10 at Washington, 19-16 at San Francisco and 34-7 at Kansas City. Think Tampa bounces back from that embarrassment at Arizona and beats LA here.
Click to expand...
Lol, same pick for basically same reason.
 
Got lucky as hell with Miami hanging on....but a lot of folks in the pool got cute with TB and AZ and got bounced.

Early week 4 lining up like this for me.....NE, AZ, Pitt
 
I immediately eliminated division and road games unless I have to, and/or its the only glaring obvious pick
 
ScopeY said:
I immediately eliminated division and road games unless I have to, and/or its the only glaring obvious pick
Click to expand...

Totally agree with this. Although I almost went with TB yesterday (took Miami) Zona never once crossed my mind. I gave Dallas strong consideration though.

Lean Cinci next week. Miami is just not very good.
 
Ok so week 4 is here. Hope everyone is still alive. Tough week with a lot of short road faves. Could be the first week with a ton of people falling out.

Looking at: Houston, Cincy, 'Zona, Skins, Chargers.

I imagine everyone will be lining up to play against the Browns again, but they've been competitive the last 2 weeks, might be dangerous going back to the well again
 
I'm leaning Cards or Hou this week. That's the only 2 I'm considering. Maybe Pitt? Agree with you on Cleveland showing up the last 2 weeks.
 
have a hard time trusting Osweiler with my survivor pick...but that D against the Titans helps
 
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