2016 Dollaz

Dollaz

Dollaz

Egor Demin Watch Club Member
Futures (will have more thoughts later)

Boston o86.5
Indians o85.5
Tigers u81.5
Astros o88.5
Royal u84.5 (missed the best number)
 
Marlins o78.5 3u -160
Pirates u86.5 -130
Cards u87.5 -135
Dbacks u81.5 +105
 
I will start off by saying what the first thing I look at: Wash played to 6 games worse than Pythag (7 worse using base runs) last year, Cincy played to 5 games worse (9 according to baseruns). Obviously, teams change but a large percentage of each teams remain.

The Reds are a sneaky team because they have one of the top defenses in the majors. Obv. Votto can hit, but they could also get nice production from Suarez and Mesoraco as well. I think you could see them score 675+ runs this year after only 640 last year. They have some speed that can help add to run scoring. They have a good defense. Pitching was a little better than I realized last year as they came in at a 4.24 FIP. Losing Leake and Cueto hurts for sure and I have them rated as one of the worse pitching staffs. I do like DeSclafani though and Bailey may give them a bit of a boost. I really don't see a play on them, but I would probably have to lean over considering I'm down on the Pirates and Cards.
 
Washington was a much better team than they showed last year. Now losing Zimmermann, Desmond, Span, Storen among others. (Im a Nats fan)

The defense is going to be pretty brutal this year with the loss of Span and having Murphy and Werth in the lineup. Still, I think they are a top 5 team in the league and neck and neck with the Mets. I actually kind of like the depth they have.....den Dekker, Robinson, Taylor, Lobatan, and Turner/Espinosa. Im slightly concerned about the pitching staff and what we see from Ross and Roark, but have some depth in Giolito, Cole, Petit in case they don't perform. I don't really like Gio as a 3, but the numbers support him as a good number 3 guy. (Still painful to watch)

I love what they've done with the bullpen, it should be much improved. They have a lot vets back there with some ability. Papelbon, Kelley, Gott, Perez are going to be stuff. I love Treinen's stuff and I think h'es a break out candidate. Petit is a perfect long guy. Rivero will combine with Perez for tough LOOGY.

If Strasburg can stay healthy and throw 200 innings he may win the cy young. He was dominant after correcting his back issue.

I like them as an over team, but not sure I bet it. They are clearly in the running with Mets and have 38 games vs. Phils and Braves.

Of note for you futures players, the AL as a whole pretty much has to go under this year based on the market price of the totals.
 
Boston o86.5 -120
Indians o85.5 -120
Tigers u81.5 -120
Astros o88.5 +115
Royal u84.5 (missed the best number) +100
Marlins o78.5 3u -160
Pirates u86.5 -130
Cards u87.5 -135
Dbacks u81.5 +105

Adding:
Dbacks u82.5 -105
Orioles u78 -135
Athletics o76.5 -130 (2u)
Seattle o82.5 -140
Rays o81.5 -115
Blue Jays o87 -115
Rangers u83.5 +110

Unfortunately I made some plays before my projections were finalized. The good thing is I think I really only made a bad play on the over for Astros. Both were kinda based on gut. The following are my projected records:

[TABLE="width: 192"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 64"]Team[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]W[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Boston[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]87[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]75[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TB[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]86[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]76[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tor[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]90[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]72[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYY[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]82[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]80[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bal[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]74[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]88[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: xl112"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl112"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Det[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]78[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]84[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cle[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]89[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]73[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ChiW[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]81[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]81[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]82[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]80[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Min[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]76[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]86[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: xl112"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl112"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LAA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]77[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]85[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sea[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]86[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]76[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oak[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]82[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]80[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tex[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]76[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]86[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hou[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]86[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]76[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: xl112"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl112"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wash[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]87[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]75[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]88[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]74[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mia[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]83[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]79[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Atl[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]69[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]93[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Phi[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]65[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]97[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: xl112"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl112"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]STL[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]82[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]80[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ChiC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]95[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]67[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pit[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]80[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]82[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cin[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]70[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]92[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mil[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]73[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]89[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: xl112"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl112"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LAD[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]93[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]69[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SF[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]90[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]72[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SD[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]71[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]91[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ari[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]79[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]83[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Col[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]74[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]88[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
dollaz
Agree with the pirates and the under.
I feel like its just asking the public to take the OVER for the Angels 79 ½ :mean4:

I'm liking the D'backs O but 82 ½ -145 is too much juice!
Also, liking the tigers U 82 ½ -110.

GL this year:cheers3:
 
Greyhound Racer said:
dollaz
Agree with the pirates and the under.
I feel like its just asking the public to take the OVER for the Angels 79 ½ :mean4:

I'm liking the D'backs O but 82 ½ -145 is too much juice!
Also, liking the tigers U 82 ½ -110.

GL this year:cheers3:
Click to expand...


I really don't see much with Angels. They may have 4 guys in lineup with sub .300 OBP. Does anyone really like their offense? Escobar is probably going to have a huge regression. And the pitching staff? Richards and Santiago leading the way? THey could easily finish last.
 
I cap based on what my lines are compared to what the market has. Typically, I play when 10 cents off or more, but I got by gut once narrowing down. Its a long haul and I look more at value than my prediction for the particular day (similar to what gamehunter describes) Having said that:

Orioles -126 (my line -137)
Seattle +119 (my line +107)
Padres +180 (my line +157)
Rays -112 (my line -122)
Rockies +175 (my line +150)
Athletics +112 (my line -105)

Angels just missed cut due to their pedestrian numbers vs. Arrieta.

Im going to really cut back on my totals this year as I just don't do as well as I would hope. Parlays will be rare as well, but :

Nats -1.5/Giants -1.5 +290
Col/Ari o7.5 -110
Tor/TB o8 -110


Thoughts:
Im lower on Greinke than most. He's a good pitcher, but he goes from extreme pitching park to extreme hitting park and a great pitch framer to a bad one.

Clearly the D backs are going to be on my fad list a lot. And I'm higher on the As (that line is terrible, imo). Oakland getting money at home with Gray?

Rangers are a fade team for me.
 
Wasnt able to post last night due to driving up to Caps game but won a couple. For today just played

Indians -133
Nats -1.5 -120
Nats/As +160
Rangers +100
Mia/ari +180
As -131
 
Thanks Grind

Red Sox +123. Im high on both teams but I had this -120 for the Indians

Lean Dodgers +110. Had this 50/50, but Giants have hit well vs. Wood and Dodgers not so much vs. Peavy. I will wait this out.
Lean Nats as I had it -135ish.
 
Hope you cash em all, Dollaz. I fully admit that with the 4 teams of Bos/Cle and SF/LA, I still don't have a good feel for what to expect or even who they are right now, so gonna sit back and watch. BOL my friend.
 
I like the Indians a hair better than Sox, but mainly due to top 2 starters (Salazar isn't bad 3rd, either). But, I like the Sox bullpen a lot better than Clevelands. I think Kelly was pretty unlucky last year and expect a bounce back.

I love the Giants lineup, but I suspect they may have some issues vs. lefties.
 
Mets are somehow undervalued today. Royals/Mets +130

Stroman is a good pitcher, but lets get serious here. Red Sox +165
 
[TABLE="width: 256"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]W[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]L[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Units[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]Overall[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.51[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]ML[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.79[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]RL[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]OU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-2.35[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]Parlay[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.82[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]TT[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]1st 5s[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]Props[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]Last 4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]Atl Line[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.25[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]



My lines today (prior to any major lineup changes):

Det -138
Phi -105
Bos -187
Stl -160
Chi/Min -105
Mets -148
Hou -160
Was -240
Oak -125
Chi -185
Sea -160
 
Pit +140. Think the line is off here. If I can get into a bullpen battler here, might be golden.
Nats/Red Sox +118
 
Last edited:
Today is one of the first days where I think a couple lines are way off.

Dodgers -142. I have this in the -165 range. Slight concern with Dodgers vs. a lefty, but its early and those stats mean nothing. D-Backs are facing a much superior team on the road.

Phils -108. I have this at -125ish. Both bad teams.

Marlins +132. I have Mets -110. Give me Jose +132 vs. anyone.

Nats/Sox +164. Think both should be higher faves so going to the well again.

Eyeing maybe adding to Marlins possible first 5. Looking at Tigers first 5 as well.
 
Red Sox and Dodgers going to kill me slowly, but I have to stay true to my system.

LAD -148
NYY +116
Bos -112
Cle -107
Hou +107
Min +103
Sea/Wash +140
 
Last edited:
Couldn't get any of the dogs to bark last night.

Stl -1.5 +125
Ari +128
Min -114
NYY +140
Bal +122
Pit -144

Some notes:

Wanted to parlay STl with something, but just can't find a good matchup to do so. I typically only parlay when both teams have expected win% over 60% in my mind.

Thought I could sneak in the Rox as a dog, but the books did not bite.

I think I'm higher on the Reds than I was at the beginning of the year. I almost took the over with them and now I wish I did. There rotation is better than people realize and I was on verge of taking them today with a guy I really like in Iglesias.

My numbers spit out some value on the Snakes even though I'm bearish on them. But, I'm excited to be able to fade some 26 year old rookie off a failed no hitter attempt. The guy struck out 4 batters in 7+ innings, that line is crazy. Robbie Ray is a very solid pitcher that gets overlooked. He was very good last year. A flyball pitcher in LA vs. a lefty lineup....I am considering my first 2u play of the year.

Minnesota....gasp. They look lost, but they aren't a bad team. Happy to fade Latos.

Brew Crew not much success vs. Garcia except Maldonado while the Cards have hit Peralta well. Carpeter 1.3 OPS in 37 AB. Holliday 1.1 OPS in 30 AB.

My numbers just aren't there to price Stroman as an ace yet.

Orioles- Playing well. Tillman is a guy I probably back a lot this year (and already have). Hamels is a guy I probably fade a ton (manly bc I'm not a fan of that team at all)

Hate to go against the former Nat Zimmerman, who I'm a huge fan of, but is there something up with Cole that I'm not aware of? The books have given him zero love. Im not panicking over 1 bad start. Better team at home with better starter and much better bullpen. I will lay this number anytime.
 
[TABLE="width: 256"]
<colgroup><col width="64" span="4" style="width:48pt"> </colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]W[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]L[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Units[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]Overall[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.99[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]ML[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]23[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]RL[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]OU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-3.55[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]Parlay[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]TT[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]1st 5s[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]Props[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]Last 4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl112"]Atl Line[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.14
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Bos -110
ChiSox -138
Minny -125
Stl +103
 
Cle -156
Bos -108
Col +102
Ari +118
Bal +133
Ari 1st 5 +118
Nyy/pitt +175 (forgot this one)
 
Last edited:
Not for the weak today. Close your eyes and pray.

Atl +245
Cincy +180
NYY -129
Bal -103
Det +137
Tex +148
Wash/Bos +145

Bascially fading some of the best pitchers in baseball, but they are on the road and I think lines are too high. BOL
 
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