2016 Dollaz

Rough week

[TABLE="width: 320"]
<colgroup><col width="64" span="5" style="width:48pt"> </colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]W[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]L[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Units[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Overall[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]51[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]57[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.68[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]47%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]ML[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]34[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7.37[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]44%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]RL[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: center"]#DIV/0![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]OU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-2.55[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Parlay[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.28[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]46%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]TT[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]1st 5s[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.18[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Props[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: center"]#DIV/0![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Last 4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: center"]#DIV/0![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Atl Line[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.14[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]




Hou +133
LAA -122
Min +129
Oak +158
 
Trying to get this turned around:

Cle +106
Bal +114
Det -103
ChiSox +130
Nats o4.5 -110
Chi/Tor o8 -110
 
[TABLE="width: 320"]
<colgroup><col width="64" span="5" style="width:48pt"> </colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]W[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]L[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Units[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Overall[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]63[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]67[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.25[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]ML[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]51[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-4.85[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]46%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]RL[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: center"]#DIV/0![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]OU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-2.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]42%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Parlay[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.28[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]46%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]TT[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]1st 5s[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.18[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Props[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: center"]#DIV/0![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Last 4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: center"]#DIV/0![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Atl Line[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.44[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]88%


[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]



Stl/Hou 144
Wash 107
Pit -118
Mil -106


Give me Nats as a dog with similar pitcher and rested bullpen anyday.
 
Dollaz said:
[TABLE="width: 320"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]W[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]L[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Units[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Overall[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]63[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]67[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.25[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]ML[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]51[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-4.85[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]46%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]RL[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: center"]#DIV/0![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]OU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-2.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]42%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Parlay[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.28[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]46%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]TT[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]1st 5s[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.18[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Props[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: center"]#DIV/0![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Last 4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: center"]#DIV/0![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Atl Line[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.44[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]88%

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]



Stl/Hou 144
Wash 107
Pit -118
Mil -106


Give me Nats as a dog with similar pitcher and rested bullpen anyday.
Click to expand...

:shake2:
 
No real opinion yet but looking at a 7.71 ERA at KC over 23.1 innings is a little scary
Last year ERA on 4 4.78
This season no problem 1.86 ERA 19.1 innings. Will think about it. GL
 
Someone the run lines are saving my butt and I don't expect that to continue. I need to peg these MLs better.

SD -117
Bal -118
LAD +126
Wash +110
Brewers +108

What is this love for the Angles?
 
Dollaz said:
Someone the run lines are saving my butt and I don't expect that to continue. I need to peg these MLs better.

SD -117
Bal -118
LAD +126
Wash +110
Brewers +108

What is this love for the Angles?
Click to expand...

Guerra fade, I suppose. GL Dollaz
 
I expect to lose my shit today I have a couple games where my line is way off.

Marlins. Chen not much action vs. Phils, but they have a combined .143/.182/.190 line vs. him. Phils are the worst team in the league vs. lefties. Marlins have never faced Velasquez-a concern. If Marlins pen wasn't used heavily last couple days, this would be first 2 unit play.

Atl give me +138 at home vs. a team a I love to fade in Dbacks anyday.

Bal -102. Im skeptical that Hill has all of a sudden turned into Cy Young. And the As can't hit.

Dodgers. I've lost my ass many times on Stroman, but I still think he gets overvalued

LAD +125
Bal -102
Atl +138
Mia -126
 
[TABLE="width: 320"]
<colgroup><col width="64" span="5" style="width:48pt"> </colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]W[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]L[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Units[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Overall[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]80[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]80[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.14[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]ML[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]54[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]61[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-2.88[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]47%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]RL[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: center"]#DIV/0![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]OU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]46%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Parlay[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]47%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]TT[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.45[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]40%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]1st 5s[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.18[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Props[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: center"]#DIV/0![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Last 4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: center"]#DIV/0![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl113"]Atl Line[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.19[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, align: right"]91%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Min -108
SF +115
 
Last edited:
Now is about the time I start to reevaluate my initial feelings. We are 30 games in; a small sample, but can't completely ignore.

Teams that have been lucky and I expect to regress:

Phillies
White Sox
Reds
Rangers

Teams that have been unlucky and I expect to improve:
Cards
Jays
Stros
Twins

The most obvious one is the Phils. They have been outscored by 27 runs and somehow are 4 games over .500. The White Sox have an ERA of 2.79 despite an FIP of 3.45 and an xFIP of 3.92. Im not a big fan of that pitching staff and I expect them to come back down.

The Cards have outscored opponents by 40 runs and are .500.
 
Atl -113
LAD -103
Min -101
Tex/ChiSox o9 -105
Sea -115
Bos -176
Stl -120
Stl/LAA o7.5 -120
Pit -135
 
Last edited:
Had to take these:

Red Sox to win East -125
Indians to win central +200
Mariners to win west +125
 
Added Mariners to win title- +2100

Reasoning:
First off the National League teams are overvalued providing nice value to an AL team that could create a hedge opportunity if the situations arises. That is a secondary consideration, I just like to pick a team that I think the odds are off on and risk 1 unit per year. This year, its the Mariners.

In my opinion, the Red Sox and Mariners are the 2 best teams in the American League. However, the Sox don't have much value while the Mariners have a ton of value. I also weigh the 2 starting staffs and Seattles rotation can stand up to anyones in the postseason and as it currently sits would be a huge advantage over the Sox.

Seattle is 20-13 and have outscored opponents by 31 runs. They have a record that suits how they've played so far. I like the lineup and I don't think there is a glaring weakness vs. righties or lefties. Two of the most underated hitters in the league, imo are Seager and Seth Smith. Lee has provided them a powerful righty to match in with the lefties Cano, Smith, and Lind. I think they have a real strong core of hitters 3-7, which is more than most teams in the league nowadays. Aoki is a good hitter as well, just hasn't gotten it going yet. They also have a forgotten prospect in Chris Taylor that could make an impact this year as he's destroying AAA.

The pitching staff really is a strength though. Felix hasn't quite been right, but he will get going. Taijuan Walker is a stud and will be looked as as a future ace. I like Iwakuma, Karns, and Miley as middle to back end guys that are solid and give them innings. Paxton is a player that can fill in if need be.

What goes unnoticed is the Mariners bullpen has been lights out. 2.37 ERA; over 10 k/9. Nuno has really taken to the relievers role and has provided them with a some production from the left side. They have some solid vets as well. Also, they are likely to get the addition of Edwin Diaz who the Mariners have moved to the pen to call up for the stretch run.

The only real concern for me with the Ms is the defense is poor. But, I think they have a great shot at winning the west and can stake up with anyone in the AL. If they were to make it to the World Series, Felix and Walker can matchup with anyone.
 
Holy shit, we've got action in the same games, finally.

Nice to see Cishek regain his 2013-14 form as well.

GL
 
I like him more as a "get righties out" guy, but it's nice to see him bounce back and I think the Ms have several late inning options. Diaz could be a K-Rod type late season addition.
 
I haven't been getting the dogs in at all this year. 28-41 on underdogs. And naturally, I run my lines for tonight and it's like the book decided to add 10 cents to every favorite and thus, my numbers spit out a bunch more dogs. Yikes. In some of these instances, I have an underdog lefty starter facing a team that doesn't hit lefties well. In the case of the Rays, they actually do hit lefties well and I bumped that play up a bit because I never sad to fade Rich Hill. And I will continue to not buy the Phils.

Pit +133
Cincy +108
Ari +135 (Shark is a large fave, what? Even with Shelby not knowing what he's doing right now
Stl +115
NYY +138
Det +129
TB -116 (1.5u)
Atl +153
 
Just a note
Wacha is 0-3 on 4 days this season
At night 1-2 3.55 ERA
Cards not a very good team
Dodger pitcher not great either but younger and the Cards have never seen him.
I think you should bet fewer games and try and find better spots especially looking at the Cards pen.
 
tuck321 said:
Just a note
Wacha is 0-3 on 4 days this season
At night 1-2 3.55 ERA
Cards not a very good team
Dodger pitcher not great either but younger and the Cards have never seen him.
I think you should bet fewer games and try and find better spots especially looking at the Cards pen.
Click to expand...


Ive been in a rough patch, but I'm going to bet when I think I have an edge ont he line. (been out of town so just saw this) I have a different capping style than you do; not saying either one of us is right. I don't look at small samples.

I played the under for Cards this year and think they are slightly over .500. But, they have been better that that having a 49 run differential. BOL.


Royals +117
Pit -1.5 +125
Wash 113
HOu -102
Oak 108
Cin/Cle o7.5 -105
Cle -1.5 -120
Ari -124
 
Last edited:
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