2024 Dollaz
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Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
Someone asked me about expanding on this game so I will put it here:
First off, there is some unknown. Im trying to figure out who the ODU QB will be. Wilson got hurt 3 weeks ago, the backup played 2 series and the 4th string came in and ran for a long TD and stayed in the rest of the game (the transfer from BC was hurt). So, none of the 4 would surprise me at this point
The big plays which carried the offense have not been there this year. That has been the largest difference on the offensive end. Some of it is related to competition (SC, ECU, VT). I expect to see more and more as the level of competition defensively steps down. Excluding sacks, the running game has been fairly effective relative to competition. This despite every team selling out to stop the run. BG has some tough competition (but I looked at Furman too) and their run defense looks fairly weak (5.3 ypc). The pass defense appears to be significantly better but does allow big plays.
The BG offense has a lot of success on the ground. ODU typically does have a solid run defense though. ODU just cannot get teams off the field despite a decent run defense. I think the perception of ODUs defense is higher than performance. BG is a good offense that is balanced and can hit you with both. I expect they will move the ball on offense.
Rahne is 3-0 off bye weeks. This week is a tough test. I do think ODU has a shot at keeping it close/covering (damn near every game is 1 score), but I think the total of 51 is too low. I think we see ODUs offense move the ball better (especially if Wilson is back) and a couple big pays through the air happen. The only thing ODU has done well on defense is get turnovers and that is something I dont really cap. Lean toward ODU losing something like 34-27ish.
First off, there is some unknown. Im trying to figure out who the ODU QB will be. Wilson got hurt 3 weeks ago, the backup played 2 series and the 4th string came in and ran for a long TD and stayed in the rest of the game (the transfer from BC was hurt). So, none of the 4 would surprise me at this point
The big plays which carried the offense have not been there this year. That has been the largest difference on the offensive end. Some of it is related to competition (SC, ECU, VT). I expect to see more and more as the level of competition defensively steps down. Excluding sacks, the running game has been fairly effective relative to competition. This despite every team selling out to stop the run. BG has some tough competition (but I looked at Furman too) and their run defense looks fairly weak (5.3 ypc). The pass defense appears to be significantly better but does allow big plays.
The BG offense has a lot of success on the ground. ODU typically does have a solid run defense though. ODU just cannot get teams off the field despite a decent run defense. I think the perception of ODUs defense is higher than performance. BG is a good offense that is balanced and can hit you with both. I expect they will move the ball on offense.
Rahne is 3-0 off bye weeks. This week is a tough test. I do think ODU has a shot at keeping it close/covering (damn near every game is 1 score), but I think the total of 51 is too low. I think we see ODUs offense move the ball better (especially if Wilson is back) and a couple big pays through the air happen. The only thing ODU has done well on defense is get turnovers and that is something I dont really cap. Lean toward ODU losing something like 34-27ish.
Still liking it?
Great work!
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
Whats the ODU/CC scoop? Didn't look at game, just thought I'd wait for your pick! Lol
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
I like the matchup but what scares me is I think ODUs starting QB will be out. The backup came in last week and won, but it was smoke and mirrors. He did nothing for a few drives and then ODU got an INT and great field position, which they scored on. The backup then scored on a legitimate drive to win the game, but it was all scrambling and he threw a ball that should have been a game ending INT.
I think the matchup really favors ODU...Vasko is not a passer and ODU can stop the run. Id still lean slightly that way but the QB situation is dicey.
I think the matchup really favors ODU...Vasko is not a passer and ODU can stop the run. Id still lean slightly that way but the QB situation is dicey.
Thanks for the thoughts.
Fun game!
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
ODU made a ton of mistakes and were still somehow in the game until the end. 3 turnovers, missed assignments, and back breaking penalties. Not sure how many touchdowns were taken away but it was multiple.
Those are things that can get cleaned up and they certainly need to do so. But, if they can, they might sneak into a bowl game again.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
I actually ODU has a decent shot here. Ga State did play well vs. Vandy but the remaining games dont look very impressive to me. They pass a lot but its short stuff. They run the ball ok, but nothing special and we are good at stopping the run. The defense doesn't look special. My biggest concern would be their passing attack vs. our defense.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
Figured I would be a popular guy today as we are under the lights on a weeknight game! Apologies for last week, I probably would have slightly leaned toward Texas State but didn't have any plays.
ODU- this is a pretty good 3-4 team to be honest. The losses were South Carolina (by 4), ECU (by 6, really should have won), VT (close early but played 4th string QB), and Coastal (defense fell apart, tons of defensive starters and backups out).
Georgia Southern has been extremely impressive to me. Beat JMU, Marshall, and Georgia State.
Injuries- I don't know much about Southern injuries, but ODU seems pretty healthy (backup QB will play but he's looked as good/better than the starter)
ODU offense-
Colton Joseph was a highly thought of QB recruit. All I was told was that he was a gunslinger that could run but would run if needed to. So far, he's been a big time run threat that has struggled through the air. He does have a tendency to put the ball into trouble. The offense has flowed better with him under center as he's been able to pick up 3rd downs with his feet.
They average 38 rushes for 176 yards per game on the ground. They do have a powerful run game which has improved with a QB that is more willing to run. 4.6 ypc against the caliber of defenses they have faced is impressive, in my mind. They struggle through the air as Joseph has missed tons of downfield shots. Average 16-29 for 159 yards.
Georgia Southerns defense is pretty weak, which makes me wonder how they completely shut down JMU last week. They give up 33 for 175 (5.2) on the ground and 22-36 for 268 through the air (7.4). ODU should be able to move the ball and giving up over 5 yards per carry on the ground would be bad for Southern. They have very few sacks but had 6 last week. The rushing numbers would look worse for GSU if not for the sacks vs. JMU and the game vs. Georgia State. I expect them to blitz a ton on passing downs and try to load the box vs. the run.
After Coastal, I was ready to give up on the ODU defense. I will say in that game, the entire secondary was lost and guys were playing that were not expected to play this year. It seems like they are all generally healthy though. I hate the Southern offense because they nickel and dime you with quick passes and its a slow death. And ODUs defense tends to be more bend but dont break and hope for a turnover. The ODU defense has been really good the past 2 weeks, especially vs. Texas State. Through it all, ODU has typically had a strong run defense and this year is no different, giving up 3.8 ypc. On offense, Southern only averages 3.7 ypc so ODU should have the advantage on that end. Georgia Southern averages 35 for 129 on the ground and ODU gives up 43 for 162.Through the air Southern goes 22-37 for 245 yards (6.7 ypc). ODU gives up 20-33 for 239. Southern gives up 2.6 sacks per game and ODU gets right around 2. ODU has been opportunistic getting over an interception a game. Looks like Georgia Southern has a good kicker and good kick returner.
Digging in to a little bit of advanced numbers:
ODU (FEI)- 88
GSU (FEI) -74
Offense- ODU-100, GSU 76
Defense- ODU 59, GSU 70
ST- ODU 93, GSU 45
GSU coming off a huge win at home with a short week. ODU coming off a huge win at home off a short week. Would imagine ODU gets a slight advantage for the home week and slight one for the home team.
I think both teams move the ball and honestly turnovers will be huge. I think ODU puts pressure on GSU on the ground and it opens up some things through the air. If Joseph throws picks that changes things, but I think he can be a positive. I do expect GSU to move the ball as well as Im still leery about the ODU defense to some degree. But Georgia Southern is slightly better on offense (passing game), but ODU has the advantage on the ground and a better defense. GSU looks like the better special teams. Thus, it ads up to ODU minus the points.
ODU- 31
GSU- 27
Best of luck!
ODU- this is a pretty good 3-4 team to be honest. The losses were South Carolina (by 4), ECU (by 6, really should have won), VT (close early but played 4th string QB), and Coastal (defense fell apart, tons of defensive starters and backups out).
Georgia Southern has been extremely impressive to me. Beat JMU, Marshall, and Georgia State.
Injuries- I don't know much about Southern injuries, but ODU seems pretty healthy (backup QB will play but he's looked as good/better than the starter)
ODU offense-
Colton Joseph was a highly thought of QB recruit. All I was told was that he was a gunslinger that could run but would run if needed to. So far, he's been a big time run threat that has struggled through the air. He does have a tendency to put the ball into trouble. The offense has flowed better with him under center as he's been able to pick up 3rd downs with his feet.
They average 38 rushes for 176 yards per game on the ground. They do have a powerful run game which has improved with a QB that is more willing to run. 4.6 ypc against the caliber of defenses they have faced is impressive, in my mind. They struggle through the air as Joseph has missed tons of downfield shots. Average 16-29 for 159 yards.
Georgia Southerns defense is pretty weak, which makes me wonder how they completely shut down JMU last week. They give up 33 for 175 (5.2) on the ground and 22-36 for 268 through the air (7.4). ODU should be able to move the ball and giving up over 5 yards per carry on the ground would be bad for Southern. They have very few sacks but had 6 last week. The rushing numbers would look worse for GSU if not for the sacks vs. JMU and the game vs. Georgia State. I expect them to blitz a ton on passing downs and try to load the box vs. the run.
After Coastal, I was ready to give up on the ODU defense. I will say in that game, the entire secondary was lost and guys were playing that were not expected to play this year. It seems like they are all generally healthy though. I hate the Southern offense because they nickel and dime you with quick passes and its a slow death. And ODUs defense tends to be more bend but dont break and hope for a turnover. The ODU defense has been really good the past 2 weeks, especially vs. Texas State. Through it all, ODU has typically had a strong run defense and this year is no different, giving up 3.8 ypc. On offense, Southern only averages 3.7 ypc so ODU should have the advantage on that end. Georgia Southern averages 35 for 129 on the ground and ODU gives up 43 for 162.Through the air Southern goes 22-37 for 245 yards (6.7 ypc). ODU gives up 20-33 for 239. Southern gives up 2.6 sacks per game and ODU gets right around 2. ODU has been opportunistic getting over an interception a game. Looks like Georgia Southern has a good kicker and good kick returner.
Digging in to a little bit of advanced numbers:
ODU (FEI)- 88
GSU (FEI) -74
Offense- ODU-100, GSU 76
Defense- ODU 59, GSU 70
ST- ODU 93, GSU 45
GSU coming off a huge win at home with a short week. ODU coming off a huge win at home off a short week. Would imagine ODU gets a slight advantage for the home week and slight one for the home team.
I think both teams move the ball and honestly turnovers will be huge. I think ODU puts pressure on GSU on the ground and it opens up some things through the air. If Joseph throws picks that changes things
, but I think he can be a positive. I do expect GSU to move the ball as well as Im still leery about the ODU defense to some degree. But Georgia Southern is slightly better on offense (passing game), but ODU has the advantage on the ground and a better defense. GSU looks like the better special teams. Thus, it ads up to ODU minus the points. ODU- 31
GSU- 27
Best of luck!
Last edited:
phantom888
Surrounded by Ghosts and Aliens
Nice call
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
Fun to watch in person, but I wish I could have called a blowout, lol. I did think Georgia Southerns run defense was a problem for them and that ODU would score, but I expected GS to be better on offense. The number of yards/points is not an accurate representation of how their offense played.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
I dont think there is a Sun Belt team playing better than ODU right now. They beat Bowling Green, lost to CC on the road, beat Georgia Stae on the road, beat Texas State and Georgia Southern at home. Beating Texas State doesn't look all that great last night as they lost to Louisiana at home, but that was 2 pretty evenly matched teams and it appears turnovers were a big difference (I did not watch the entire game).
Having said that, going to Boone is typically a nightmare. Is this a sandwich spot for ODU? COming in riding high and have to go play a mediocre App State team before playing the one Im sure they all have circled against JMU.
The App defense is pretty bad. They are giving up 6.9 ypp. 37 rushes for 209 yards (5.7 ypc) and 16 -24 for 212 passing. Again- ODU is a very strong running team and they hit big plays through the air. Can App slow them down on the ground? I think its easier said than done with the QB is such a threat to run. App doesnt get a lot of sacks or turnovers either.
App has a pretty prolific offense. They are a good but not great running team averaging 34 for 148 yards (4.4 ypc). Through the air they average 22-40 for 294 yards. They appear to not be a consistent passing team (~50% but when they do complete it, its for long gains).
ODU
Offense (net EPA -73) Rushing EPA- 77, Passing EPA 101
Defense (net EPA- 58) Rushing EPA- 52, passing EPA 50
App State
Offense (net EPA-111) Rushing 103, passing 80
Defense (net EPA-111) Rushing 121, Passing 117
Went through every App State box score.
-Looks like they got gashed on the ground vs. East Tennesse.
-I don't even look at Clemson
-ECU ( a team ODU lost to) they beat pretty handily
-South Alabama beat them pretty easily in Boone (7.4 ypc on 43 carries..yikes)
-Statistically wise it looks like App had more success but 2 turnovers and 15 penalties stood out. It looks like Marshall was up big early and then just ran the clock out (39 carries for 6.1 ypc)
-Louisiana was a roughly competitive game. 5 turnovers for App killed them.
-They beat Georgia State pretty easily despite the score. But GS averaged 8.7 yards per pass and 5.7 yards per carry with 0 turnovers. Surprised this was a loss for them:
3 and out (safety)
Punt (driving up got a 15 yard penalty)
FG but 77 yard drive on 10 plays
TD
TD
Half
Punt
TD
FG
Downs
9 real drives- 3 TDs, 2 FG, 3 punts, 1 turnover on downs
Line has flipped from App being a small favorite to ODU 2.5. I do not love this situation. I think you do get cheap odds on the better team giving less than a FG though. I would predict something like 31-20 ODU. Lean a little toward the under and a little toward ODU but dont love either play.
Having said that, going to Boone is typically a nightmare. Is this a sandwich spot for ODU? COming in riding high and have to go play a mediocre App State team before playing the one Im sure they all have circled against JMU.
The App defense is pretty bad. They are giving up 6.9 ypp. 37 rushes for 209 yards (5.7 ypc) and 16 -24 for 212 passing. Again- ODU is a very strong running team and they hit big plays through the air. Can App slow them down on the ground? I think its easier said than done with the QB is such a threat to run. App doesnt get a lot of sacks or turnovers either.
App has a pretty prolific offense. They are a good but not great running team averaging 34 for 148 yards (4.4 ypc). Through the air they average 22-40 for 294 yards. They appear to not be a consistent passing team (~50% but when they do complete it, its for long gains).
ODU
Offense (net EPA -73) Rushing EPA- 77, Passing EPA 101
Defense (net EPA- 58) Rushing EPA- 52, passing EPA 50
App State
Offense (net EPA-111) Rushing 103, passing 80
Defense (net EPA-111) Rushing 121, Passing 117
Went through every App State box score.
-Looks like they got gashed on the ground vs. East Tennesse.
-I don't even look at Clemson
-ECU ( a team ODU lost to) they beat pretty handily
-South Alabama beat them pretty easily in Boone (7.4 ypc on 43 carries..yikes)
-Statistically wise it looks like App had more success but 2 turnovers and 15 penalties stood out. It looks like Marshall was up big early and then just ran the clock out (39 carries for 6.1 ypc)
-Louisiana was a roughly competitive game. 5 turnovers for App killed them.
-They beat Georgia State pretty easily despite the score. But GS averaged 8.7 yards per pass and 5.7 yards per carry with 0 turnovers. Surprised this was a loss for them:
3 and out (safety)
Punt (driving up got a 15 yard penalty)
FG but 77 yard drive on 10 plays
TD
TD
Half
Punt
TD
FG
Downs
9 real drives- 3 TDs, 2 FG, 3 punts, 1 turnover on downs
Line has flipped from App being a small favorite to ODU 2.5. I do not love this situation. I think you do get cheap odds on the better team giving less than a FG though. I would predict something like 31-20 ODU. Lean a little toward the under and a little toward ODU but dont love either play.
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
Awesome stuff sir
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
Alright my friends- lets go!
Marshal @ ODU- -2.5 o/u51
Marshall is slightly higher in EPA, better on offense, worse on defense. Im curious if this line might move toward Marshall as they are 7-3 vs. a 4-6 ODU team?
I actually started this writeup with no opinion but it has moved into a strong play for me. One of the factors is Marshall is playing JMU for the conference title next week. ODU needs 2 wins to get to a bowl game, But, If ODU had Marshalls schedule, what record would they have?
Marshall has played:
FCS- doesn't matter
@VT - doesnt matter
@Ohio State - doesnt matter
Western Michigan 113 in EPA
Home:
App- 13th best SB school
Georgia State- 12th best SB school
ULM- 8th best SB school
Coastal- 7th best SB school
Away:
Southern- 9th best SB school
USM- 14th best SB school
ODU has played:
VT- dont care
South Carolina- dont care
ECU- 96th in EPA
Bowling Green- 83 in EPA
CONFERENCE:
Home:
JMU- 1st best SB school
Texas State- 2nd best SB school
Southern- 9th best SB School
Away-
Coastal- 7th
Georgia State - 12th
App State- 13th
I think it is pretty clear the ODU has had a significantly more difficult schedule. In fact, Marshall hasn't played a better SB school and will be doing so on the road in this one. They lost to Georgia Southern on the road and playing USM really doesn't mean anything.
Now the nitty gritty:
Marshall averages 39 carries for 201 yards and 5.2 ypa. They average 15-26 for 182 yards and 7.1 ypa. This is a pretty good offense. The running game really sticks out. The passing game is not too shabby either but I would suggest stopping the run is the utmost importance. They have a running QB as well as the JMU QB hurt the ODU defense last week. This game likely comes down to how well ODU can stop the run. Some concern there bc ODU was much better earlier in the season at stopping the run but are still at 4.1 ypc. They should at least do an adequate job of slowing them down. If you look at the sun belt teams that Marshall has faced, not one of them has a rushing EPA ranking lower than 105. They are all between 105 and 130 and they are facing ODU, which is at 61. ODUs pass defense is at 71.
I don't expect them to completely shut down Marshall but I think they are a better defense than any SB team Marshall has faced so far and its not close.
Ok, but Marshall has a good defense, right?
Marshall is averaging 376 yards given up on 5.4 yards per play. They allow 40 carries for 174 yards (4.4 ypc) and 17-30 for 202 through the air. Thats not bad, but again competition. Marshall overall Defensive EPA is 83rd. 98 vs. the run and 51 vs. the pass.
ODUs rushing offense is also better than every rushing offense that Marshall has faced in the SunBelt. Caveat that the passing offense is next to last.
So, I do like ODU a lot in this one for a number of reasons and I like the over as well (monitoring weather, supposed to be cold and windy)
ODU has been battle tested more than Marshall. ODU is going to be the best Sunbelt team Marshall has faced so far this year. They will be doing so on the road. They also likely matchup poorly vs. ODU because ODU can run the ball well and somewhat slow the run down. Meanwhile, Marshall is not good at stopping the run. While ODUs passing offense is bad, they are able to hit big plays. They get in trouble when they lose on early downs and have 3rd and long, that is a nightmare for them. But if they can get the run game going, it will open up some big plays.
Best of luck everyone!
Marshal @ ODU- -2.5 o/u51
Marshall is slightly higher in EPA, better on offense, worse on defense. Im curious if this line might move toward Marshall as they are 7-3 vs. a 4-6 ODU team?
I actually started this writeup with no opinion but it has moved into a strong play for me. One of the factors is Marshall is playing JMU for the conference title next week. ODU needs 2 wins to get to a bowl game, But, If ODU had Marshalls schedule, what record would they have?
Marshall has played:
FCS- doesn't matter
@VT - doesnt matter
@Ohio State - doesnt matter
Western Michigan 113 in EPA
Home:
App- 13th best SB school
Georgia State- 12th best SB school
ULM- 8th best SB school
Coastal- 7th best SB school
Away:
Southern- 9th best SB school
USM- 14th best SB school
ODU has played:
VT- dont care
South Carolina- dont care
ECU- 96th in EPA
Bowling Green- 83 in EPA
CONFERENCE:
Home:
JMU- 1st best SB school
Texas State- 2nd best SB school
Southern- 9th best SB School
Away-
Coastal- 7th
Georgia State - 12th
App State- 13th
I think it is pretty clear the ODU has had a significantly more difficult schedule. In fact, Marshall hasn't played a better SB school and will be doing so on the road in this one. They lost to Georgia Southern on the road and playing USM really doesn't mean anything.
Now the nitty gritty:
Marshall averages 39 carries for 201 yards and 5.2 ypa. They average 15-26 for 182 yards and 7.1 ypa. This is a pretty good offense. The running game really sticks out. The passing game is not too shabby either but I would suggest stopping the run is the utmost importance. They have a running QB as well as the JMU QB hurt the ODU defense last week. This game likely comes down to how well ODU can stop the run. Some concern there bc ODU was much better earlier in the season at stopping the run but are still at 4.1 ypc. They should at least do an adequate job of slowing them down. If you look at the sun belt teams that Marshall has faced, not one of them has a rushing EPA ranking lower than 105. They are all between 105 and 130 and they are facing ODU, which is at 61. ODUs pass defense is at 71.
I don't expect them to completely shut down Marshall but I think they are a better defense than any SB team Marshall has faced so far and its not close.
Ok, but Marshall has a good defense, right?
Marshall is averaging 376 yards given up on 5.4 yards per play. They allow 40 carries for 174 yards (4.4 ypc) and 17-30 for 202 through the air. Thats not bad, but again competition. Marshall overall Defensive EPA is 83rd. 98 vs. the run and 51 vs. the pass.
ODUs rushing offense is also better than every rushing offense that Marshall has faced in the SunBelt. Caveat that the passing offense is next to last.
So, I do like ODU a lot in this one for a number of reasons and I like the over as well (monitoring weather, supposed to be cold and windy)
ODU has been battle tested more than Marshall. ODU is going to be the best Sunbelt team Marshall has faced so far this year. They will be doing so on the road. They also likely matchup poorly vs. ODU because ODU can run the ball well and somewhat slow the run down. Meanwhile, Marshall is not good at stopping the run. While ODUs passing offense is bad, they are able to hit big plays. They get in trouble when they lose on early downs and have 3rd and long, that is a nightmare for them. But if they can get the run game going, it will open up some big plays.
Best of luck everyone!
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
ODU -4 @Ark St is interesting from a betting perspective. Ark is getting 4 at home and are 7-4 against a 4-7 ODU team.
Ark State is the worst team ODU will play this year. By the numbers, ODU has the advantage everywhere. But being that its a meaningless game and on the road, Im not sure how motivated they will be. Do the coaches decide to play young guys and roll the dice on 4th downs?
Just from a numbers/betting perspective, its obvious ODU is the play. Im gonna limit it a little bit with my concern that they will have zero interest in playing.
Ark State is the worst team ODU will play this year. By the numbers, ODU has the advantage everywhere. But being that its a meaningless game and on the road, Im not sure how motivated they will be. Do the coaches decide to play young guys and roll the dice on 4th downs?
Just from a numbers/betting perspective, its obvious ODU is the play. Im gonna limit it a little bit with my concern that they will have zero interest in playing.
Thx
