2016-2017 UEFA Champions League and Europa
- Thread starter KJ
- Start date
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
~thanks, I understand. So much to comprehend these days. Hope those fuckers show up.
Guess I'll add it now, these prop odds don't seem to move and this number isn't stupid, just tough to lay it on a goal scorer. He should see plenty of opportunities. Early and often. Have a feeling if it doesn't hit some of the rest of my stuff is in trouble as well.
Ronaldo anytime goal scorer -175 3*
Guess I'll add it now, these prop odds don't seem to move and this number isn't stupid, just tough to lay it on a goal scorer. He should see plenty of opportunities. Early and often. Have a feeling if it doesn't hit some of the rest of my stuff is in trouble as well.
Ronaldo anytime goal scorer -175 3*
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KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Guess I should be concerned about the line movement on the total in Madrid, but no. If I go down it's gonna be swinging. As much as I like Madrid in this, Napoli themselves haven't lost since October and haven't been held scoreless in one since a borderline meaningless match in November. Obviously scoring against RM is a much bigger challenge than they've faced since, I still think they're capable and should go for the coveted away goal. Hope this thing is as open as I expect. 3-1, 4-1, 4-2 is what I expect. If it ends 1-0, so be it...I'm wrong. And will be shocked.
1h Real Madrid/Napoli o1.25 +100 2*
Napoli tt o1 +125
1h Real Madrid/Napoli o1.25 +100 2*
Napoli tt o1 +125
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GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
i guess i never realized the group champion starts on the road in the 1st leg, but that makes sense as a big reward
What's your theory on the 2nd leg for Benfica? I'm on the advance number with ya, but don't think there's much I want to do as it's a tiny wager for me but a CL debut that i want to win
What's your theory on the 2nd leg for Benfica? I'm on the advance number with ya, but don't think there's much I want to do as it's a tiny wager for me but a CL debut that i want to win
gunner4ever
Pretty much a regular
Hey!
well done yesterday :cheers3:
I agree with your bets today as well. I hope Napoli score at least one goal tonight to keep it interesting for the 2nd leg. As for Arsenal I can only agree, as long as we never advance in this round there is no reason to believe Arsenal will finally make the step and qualify. On the positive side I think the gap between Bayern and Arsenal has been reduced in the last few years, but realistically it won't be enough again. But as a fan I try to be positive, however the confidence is not very high as I would settle for a 1 goal loss tonight...
Let's see. Good luck tonight!
well done yesterday :cheers3:
I agree with your bets today as well. I hope Napoli score at least one goal tonight to keep it interesting for the 2nd leg. As for Arsenal I can only agree, as long as we never advance in this round there is no reason to believe Arsenal will finally make the step and qualify. On the positive side I think the gap between Bayern and Arsenal has been reduced in the last few years, but realistically it won't be enough again. But as a fan I try to be positive, however the confidence is not very high as I would settle for a 1 goal loss tonight...
Let's see. Good luck tonight!
gunner4ever
Pretty much a regular
Just giving my opinion: also have a small bet on Benfica to advance, if it was a big bet I would maybe hedge some of it. But here I really like Benfica to qualify they are +105 on pinny right now, I might take that for a normal bet. I really like the 1-0 scoreline as if Benfica score just 1 the 2nd leg, Dortmund would need 3 to qualify.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I will be taking what I can get with Dortmund, they dominated and am not comfortable at all. Hope you saw those last 10 minutes, Pulisic is really, really good. Just didn't hit. Good for us.
gunner4ever
Pretty much a regular
Yes I have to add I didn't watch Benfica-Dortmund yesterday, only the highlights and Dortmund could have scored a few it seems. Could be very close for the qualification not sure what I will do yet. Still some time to think about it as it's in 2 or 3 weeks
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Dortmund just had so many chances that they didn't convert and Aubameyang can't play worse. Think I'll be awfully surprised if they don't put up a number at home after watching that. And you're right, there are just so many good teams that finished 2nd in groups that this was bound to happen.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
2/16 Europa
Gent/Spurs o2.25 -123 2*
AZ/Lyon o2.75 -103 2*
Gladbach ML -122
Shakhtar pk -112
Shakhtar ML +162 .5*
Copenhagen pk -115
Copenhagen ML +169 .5*
Rostov/Sparta Prague o2 +112
Anderlecht pk -115
Anderlecht ML +151 .5*
Bilbao/APOEL o2.5 -122
Hapoel ML +152 .5*
Ajax -.25 -121 2*
Ajax ML +116
Man United tt o2 -115 2*
Schalke ML +103
Villareal/Roma o2.25 -128 2*
Roma tt o1 -135
Gent/Spurs o2.25 -123 2*
AZ/Lyon o2.75 -103 2*
Gladbach ML -122
Shakhtar pk -112
Shakhtar ML +162 .5*
Copenhagen pk -115
Copenhagen ML +169 .5*
Rostov/Sparta Prague o2 +112
Anderlecht pk -115
Anderlecht ML +151 .5*
Bilbao/APOEL o2.5 -122
Hapoel ML +152 .5*
Ajax -.25 -121 2*
Ajax ML +116
Man United tt o2 -115 2*
Schalke ML +103
Villareal/Roma o2.25 -128 2*
Roma tt o1 -135
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KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
+9.17 Thursday, +16.08 ytd
Nice day in Europa which isn't easy for me typically.
Side note, I will likely be on Leicester when lines are available, but there's a real chance that the only 1 seed to win the first leg could be Juventus. That's crazy to just think about that, but such is CL this season. I will also be on Dortmund is some way, they're currently -120 to move on and don't know if I'll just buy off the Benfica bet that way or not. Will wait for lines.
Dortmund is much better.
Nice day in Europa which isn't easy for me typically.
Side note, I will likely be on Leicester when lines are available, but there's a real chance that the only 1 seed to win the first leg could be Juventus. That's crazy to just think about that, but such is CL this season. I will also be on Dortmund is some way, they're currently -120 to move on and don't know if I'll just buy off the Benfica bet that way or not. Will wait for lines.
Dortmund is much better.
bluedevilboy
Pretty much a regular
KJ, you like Leicester to beat Sevilla in 1st leg?
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Well, I guess I'm taking my stand on them playing well in CL and FA Cup. Kinda the premise...let's face it, if they lose 3-0 would it be shocking? Not really, but they aren't playing well domestically yet seem to be doing their part in the other competitions. I'll tread a bit lightly in leg 1, but will be on the handicap and take some ML. If they leave Spain at 1-1 it would be such a victory, they obviously aren't scoring recently. Not going to wager a cent on them until after the Cup match this weekend, but yeah, I like em.
Interesting team in a ton of ways, Mahrez has been shit, Vardy has been shit, alleged turmoil with the manager...won't be surprised at all to see them move on.
Interesting team in a ton of ways, Mahrez has been shit, Vardy has been shit, alleged turmoil with the manager...won't be surprised at all to see them move on.
bluedevilboy
Pretty much a regular
I just took straight ML of Sevilla in the 1st leg. Final pick to complete 3 different parlays I made (other picks all won in them besides the Sevilla game)
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I've done an about face with Leicester City, removing that plan altogether. They can't score.
Today is about the City match to me, anyone who doesn't know, I'm a fan. And I think they need to focus on not letting Monaco get more than one goal...the away goals are so big in this competition, and Monaco can put up a number, fast. Hell, even a 3-1 victory would still keep me nervous in the second leg. 2-0 would be wonderful. I do, however, think they go for goals early then sit the fuck back. If Monaco score early, this could be fireworks...going to play the first half with City and hope it plays out.
1h Man City -.25 -132 3*
1h Man City ML +121 1.5*
1h Man City/Monaco o1.25 +108
Other match, Leverkusen caused me all kinds of problems earlier this season but have settled in finally...who hasn't? Atletico, just have a hard time figuring them out considering they're probably the third best team in Spain but sitting in 4th and unlike previous years, don't seem to be much of a challenge to Barca or Real...they do absolutely destroy this competition considering what they are, but gonna take a stab on Leverkusen here to stick around. That said, betting against Atletico in CL can be gambling suicide, but the Mexican has been scoring of late and atmosphere in Germany will be incredible. Going to keep it in the fairway here, if Leverkusen get up early I can see this one being complete shit the rest of the way as well.
Leverkusen pk +107 2*
Chicharito anytime goal +200 .5*
Gameiro anytime goal +200 .5*
Today is about the City match to me, anyone who doesn't know, I'm a fan. And I think they need to focus on not letting Monaco get more than one goal...the away goals are so big in this competition, and Monaco can put up a number, fast. Hell, even a 3-1 victory would still keep me nervous in the second leg. 2-0 would be wonderful. I do, however, think they go for goals early then sit the fuck back. If Monaco score early, this could be fireworks...going to play the first half with City and hope it plays out.
1h Man City -.25 -132 3*
1h Man City ML +121 1.5*
1h Man City/Monaco o1.25 +108
Other match, Leverkusen caused me all kinds of problems earlier this season but have settled in finally...who hasn't? Atletico, just have a hard time figuring them out considering they're probably the third best team in Spain but sitting in 4th and unlike previous years, don't seem to be much of a challenge to Barca or Real...they do absolutely destroy this competition considering what they are, but gonna take a stab on Leverkusen here to stick around. That said, betting against Atletico in CL can be gambling suicide, but the Mexican has been scoring of late and atmosphere in Germany will be incredible. Going to keep it in the fairway here, if Leverkusen get up early I can see this one being complete shit the rest of the way as well.
Leverkusen pk +107 2*
Chicharito anytime goal +200 .5*
Gameiro anytime goal +200 .5*
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KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
-5.88 Tue, +10.20 ytd
That no call on the penalty was pretty expensive, match was great theatre however. 2nd leg should be more of the same.
Can't trust Leicester at this point to do anything, really figured I'd be on them to advance here but that would require at least a goal and I'm not positive that happens.
2/22 CL
Juventus -.25 +113 2*
Juventus ML +153
Higuaín anytime goal +135 .5*
Sevilla/Leicester u2.75 +103
That no call on the penalty was pretty expensive, match was great theatre however. 2nd leg should be more of the same.
Can't trust Leicester at this point to do anything, really figured I'd be on them to advance here but that would require at least a goal and I'm not positive that happens.
2/22 CL
Juventus -.25 +113 2*
Juventus ML +153
Higuaín anytime goal +135 .5*
Sevilla/Leicester u2.75 +103
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KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
+22.17 CL/Europa
Well just gonna copy/paste from the Club thread, posted the CL games this week in that one. If that's the only fuck up I'll consider it a victory.
3/7
Champions League
Bayern Munich tt o1.5 -135 4*
Arsenal/Bayern o3 -117 2*
Napoli +.25 -115 2*
3/8
Champions League
PSG tt o1 -140 3*
1h Barcelona/PSG o1.5 -111 2*
Barcelona/PSG o3.5 -120 1.5*
1h Dortmund -.75 -111
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Well just gonna copy/paste from the Club thread, posted the CL games this week in that one. If that's the only fuck up I'll consider it a victory.
3/7
Champions League
Bayern Munich tt o1.5 -135 4*
Arsenal/Bayern o3 -117 2*
Napoli +.25 -115 2*
3/8
Champions League
PSG tt o1 -140 3*
1h Barcelona/PSG o1.5 -111 2*
Barcelona/PSG o3.5 -120 1.5*
1h Dortmund -.75 -111
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KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
+2.17 Wed, +24.75 ytd
3/16 Europa
Besiktas ML -169 2*
Besiktas tt o1.5 -125
Krasnodar/Celta o2.25 -115
Copenhagen to advance -110 2*
Anderlecht -1 -115
Gladbach -.25 -121
Gladbach ML +113 .5*
Rostov tt o.5 +135 .5*
Roma/Lyon o3.5 -119 4*
1h Roma/Lyon o1.5 -101 2*
Lyon tt o1.5 +105 2*
Roma tt o2.5 +150
3/16 Europa
Besiktas ML -169 2*
Besiktas tt o1.5 -125
Krasnodar/Celta o2.25 -115
Copenhagen to advance -110 2*
Anderlecht -1 -115
Gladbach -.25 -121
Gladbach ML +113 .5*
Rostov tt o.5 +135 .5*
Roma/Lyon o3.5 -119 4*
1h Roma/Lyon o1.5 -101 2*
Lyon tt o1.5 +105 2*
Roma tt o2.5 +150
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KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
+17.61 ytd
Rough go of it with Europa last time, felt pretty good at HT of that Roma/Lyon match. Oops.
One match Tuesday gonna go pretty hard, other I think Juve likely won't lose at home but after that comeback from Barca last time out, just don't know how that resonates going forward. Not sure taking Juve early is real advantageous but will put a couple on the pk at plus money for the time being.
4/11 Champions League
Dortmund/Monaco o3.25 -119 3*
1h Dortmund/Monaco o1.25 -121 3*
Dortmund tt o2 -120 1.5*
Monaco tt o1 -155 2*
Juventus pk +103 2*
Rough go of it with Europa last time, felt pretty good at HT of that Roma/Lyon match. Oops.
One match Tuesday gonna go pretty hard, other I think Juve likely won't lose at home but after that comeback from Barca last time out, just don't know how that resonates going forward. Not sure taking Juve early is real advantageous but will put a couple on the pk at plus money for the time being.
4/11 Champions League
Dortmund/Monaco o3.25 -119 3*
1h Dortmund/Monaco o1.25 -121 3*
Dortmund tt o2 -120 1.5*
Monaco tt o1 -155 2*
Juventus pk +103 2*
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KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I'm not one to play futures but going to do this one because I can't justify not doing it. Juventus are +150 to advance vs Barca to the semis, and Barca at this point are favored to win the whole thing. If they can beat Barca today (I obviously think they can) it puts this wager in a pretty good position. Obviously with Bayern and Real Madrid playing each other at this stage, one will be out so if Juve do get past Barca, they instantly would be the 2nd favorites to win the competition (can't see them being dogged to any of the other 4).
Juventus to win Champions League +1000 2*
Juventus to win Champions League +1000 2*
Cappingchubster11
Pretty much a regular
KJ, thanks for the picks. Long time lurker here, which dabbles in some footy action every once in awhile. 5dimes just cancelled all my Dortmund/Monaco wager given todays events. Do your thoughts on the game change at all given the postponement?
Also, question regarding odds for a future bet. I was about to lock in a Juve to win the champions at +940, but then I saw better odds for this bet "Soccer UEFA Champions League Winning Nation 2016/17 - Italy +1050". Am I missing something here or is this basically the same bet but with better odds? I ended up locking it in at this price but it seemed too obvious of a mistake, and now I'm worried I'm missing something.
Thoughts appreciated bud, and thanks again for sharing picks with us. You crushed it that first weekend of March Madness..
-Chub
Also, question regarding odds for a future bet. I was about to lock in a Juve to win the champions at +940, but then I saw better odds for this bet "Soccer UEFA Champions League Winning Nation 2016/17 - Italy +1050". Am I missing something here or is this basically the same bet but with better odds? I ended up locking it in at this price but it seemed too obvious of a mistake, and now I'm worried I'm missing something.
Thoughts appreciated bud, and thanks again for sharing picks with us. You crushed it that first weekend of March Madness..
-Chub
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
First, thanks for the kind words. This is really the first full season I'm doing UEFA/club season/WC Qualifying and want to keep them separate, I really have figured out that the domestic season is very difficult for me whereas these CL matches are the events that (at least to this point) make more sense to me. Also, be glad you didn't follow along with my Masters picks.
And you are right, taking Italy as opposed to Juve just increased your odds. I liked Juve before the thing started but I just don't play futures...but at +1000 to start the day today, and I explained it above, but it made no sense given the odds to advance vs Barca whether they do or not at this point. Again, hard to be upset with my position now, should get some favorable odds going forward if I even choose to buy out, which I doubt I do assuming they advance (bad idea, I know).
And you are right, taking Italy as opposed to Juve just increased your odds. I liked Juve before the thing started but I just don't play futures...but at +1000 to start the day today, and I explained it above, but it made no sense given the odds to advance vs Barca whether they do or not at this point. Again, hard to be upset with my position now, should get some favorable odds going forward if I even choose to buy out, which I doubt I do assuming they advance (bad idea, I know).
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
+6.93 Wed, +26.55 ytd
pending: Juventus to win Champions League +1000 2*
4/13 Europa
Ajax pk -129 2*
Ajax ML +141
Anderlecht +.5 +100
Anderlecht/Man United draw +260 .5*
Genk +1 -112
Lyon tt o2 -120 4*
Lyon/Besiktas o3.25 -107 2*
Lyon/Besiktas both to score -175
Lyon -1 -111 2*
pending: Juventus to win Champions League +1000 2*
4/13 Europa
Ajax pk -129 2*
Ajax ML +141
Anderlecht +.5 +100
Anderlecht/Man United draw +260 .5*
Genk +1 -112
Lyon tt o2 -120 4*
Lyon/Besiktas o3.25 -107 2*
Lyon/Besiktas both to score -175
Lyon -1 -111 2*
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KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
+30.13 ytd
pending: Juventus to win Champions League +1000 2*
4/18 Champions League
Leicester City/Atletico o2.25 -109 3*
Leicester/Atletico both to score -105
This one has 0-0 or 0-1 written all over it, and there's no doubt Atletico can rope Leicester into their game and make it just as boring as last week. Going against that logic here, think Leicester open up and let it fly. A month ago, they were fighting to stay alive in the league and have managed to move their way up the table so the threat of relegation is somewhat gone, now it's time to have some fun in what is the biggest home match in history. Without the away goal, they need 2 at least to go anywhere, and let's not pretend that we don't expect Atletico to score, so I'm guessing Leicester come out guns a blazin. Should be an unbelievable atmosphere, and I have to think Leicester attack a defense that doesn't give it up. I think Leicester makes this tie interesting. No Huth helps the over, and Benalouane and Wes Morgan are probably both out as well so there will be no back line. No Slimani certainly hurts Leicester too.
So, what happens when I put my thoughts down? 0-0 fo sho.
Bayern Munich +.25 -124 3*
Bayern Munich ML +182
Bayern Munich tt o1.5 -125 2*
Bayern Munich pk +100 2*
Going out on a limb here, have thought Real to be the best team early in the season and Bayern to be lacking, but that has done an about face for me. Better team (imo) has to go to one of the best venues in the world and put up quite the result. Which they can. And they must go for it with the result last week...so they get Lewandoski back, and I really think at least Boateng plays, hope for Hummels as Javi Martinez will be missed. No Bale for RM and just playing this as I see fit, think the better team at the moment is the one who lost at home last week short handed. No doubt with these wagers I could take a bath, betting against the world number 1 at home isn't ideal. No individual props available but will be shocked if Lewy doesn't score...at least twice. Both to score at -260 is higher than I like but probably a sure thing, might just add that too.
pending: Juventus to win Champions League +1000 2*
4/18 Champions League
Leicester City/Atletico o2.25 -109 3*
Leicester/Atletico both to score -105
This one has 0-0 or 0-1 written all over it, and there's no doubt Atletico can rope Leicester into their game and make it just as boring as last week. Going against that logic here, think Leicester open up and let it fly. A month ago, they were fighting to stay alive in the league and have managed to move their way up the table so the threat of relegation is somewhat gone, now it's time to have some fun in what is the biggest home match in history. Without the away goal, they need 2 at least to go anywhere, and let's not pretend that we don't expect Atletico to score, so I'm guessing Leicester come out guns a blazin. Should be an unbelievable atmosphere, and I have to think Leicester attack a defense that doesn't give it up. I think Leicester makes this tie interesting. No Huth helps the over, and Benalouane and Wes Morgan are probably both out as well so there will be no back line. No Slimani certainly hurts Leicester too.
So, what happens when I put my thoughts down? 0-0 fo sho.
Bayern Munich +.25 -124 3*
Bayern Munich ML +182
Bayern Munich tt o1.5 -125 2*
Bayern Munich pk +100 2*
Going out on a limb here, have thought Real to be the best team early in the season and Bayern to be lacking, but that has done an about face for me. Better team (imo) has to go to one of the best venues in the world and put up quite the result. Which they can. And they must go for it with the result last week...so they get Lewandoski back, and I really think at least Boateng plays, hope for Hummels as Javi Martinez will be missed. No Bale for RM and just playing this as I see fit, think the better team at the moment is the one who lost at home last week short handed. No doubt with these wagers I could take a bath, betting against the world number 1 at home isn't ideal. No individual props available but will be shocked if Lewy doesn't score...at least twice. Both to score at -260 is higher than I like but probably a sure thing, might just add that too.
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KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
4/19 Champions League
Monaco/Dortmund o3.5 -104 8*
Monaco tt o1.5 -125 3*
Dortmund tt o2 +115 3*
Dortmund -.25 -108 1.5*
Dortmund ML +120
Well, well, well...this is as close to a super situation as I can recall in such a major match. Dortmund need to score and as always will play forward, must win by 2 basically, although 3-2 isn't out of the question. And against a team that can give it up, and Fabinho out on cards only helps. Think this one sees at least 6 goals, and not like Dortmund can't give it up, so very real possibility both teams score twice...just won't be surprised if one scores five times. Not like Monaco are built to protect the lead they have. This one should be some fun.
Juventus tt o1 -110 2.5*
Barcelona/Juventus o3.25 -109
Barcelona/Juventus both to score -165
Nothing more, nothing less...already have Juve future so no need to take a side here, if Barcelona somehow overcome the deficit again I just lose that...but Juve backline is just a tad different than PSG. Obviously Barca has to come into this match opened up, Juve should be able to get one on the counter in the 1h I'm thinking to at least make the team total a push. Betting the match over is more a protective measure than anything. 1-1 or 2-1 seems likely, but 3 Juve goals wouldn't surprise me either...Barca hasn't exactly been tight in the back against good teams.
Monaco/Dortmund o3.5 -104 8*
Monaco tt o1.5 -125 3*
Dortmund tt o2 +115 3*
Dortmund -.25 -108 1.5*
Dortmund ML +120
Well, well, well...this is as close to a super situation as I can recall in such a major match. Dortmund need to score and as always will play forward, must win by 2 basically, although 3-2 isn't out of the question. And against a team that can give it up, and Fabinho out on cards only helps. Think this one sees at least 6 goals, and not like Dortmund can't give it up, so very real possibility both teams score twice...just won't be surprised if one scores five times. Not like Monaco are built to protect the lead they have. This one should be some fun.
Juventus tt o1 -110 2.5*
Barcelona/Juventus o3.25 -109
Barcelona/Juventus both to score -165
Nothing more, nothing less...already have Juve future so no need to take a side here, if Barcelona somehow overcome the deficit again I just lose that...but Juve backline is just a tad different than PSG. Obviously Barca has to come into this match opened up, Juve should be able to get one on the counter in the 1h I'm thinking to at least make the team total a push. Betting the match over is more a protective measure than anything. 1-1 or 2-1 seems likely, but 3 Juve goals wouldn't surprise me either...Barca hasn't exactly been tight in the back against good teams.
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