2015 Dollaz Thread (Mostly ODU)

Dollaz

Dollaz

Egor Demin Watch Club Member
Just cutting and pasting from Clowncar's thread. I really like the upside of this team, but it's a huge question mark when going into the season with a freshman (redshirt) QB; no matter how talented the player is. I've done some basic research on Eastern Michigan, but will dive deeper in the next couple weeks. Also will be following summer/fall practice a ton to get a gauge on how the QB and the young secondary are performing.

2015 will depend 100% on how Shuler Bentley plays; a highly touted (SC player of the year) QB that is a redshirt freshman. Everything I've read about him as been good up to this point and Heinicke really took him under his wing last year. Bentley was great at the spring game; 21-32 for 242 yards.

Obviously, the QB is a huge question mark, everywhere else the roster is significantly better than last year. They are slowing down the pace big time this year and adding a TE more often and using Ray Lawry (amazing year last year....7.1 yards/carry on 134 carries) No loses at RB.

Vaughan (speedster) is a loss at WR, but they replace him with Blair Roberts, a senior who was injured all of last year. They have some significant young talent at WR that were redshirted or saw little snaps (Reynolds, Duhart, Little)

The only loss on the OL is the center so OL should be better this year (and certainly deeper)

Defense was awfully young and has sucked for years. This will be another young squad; albeit much more talented. They have a couple 3 star ish DEs that should significantly improve the pass rush (both redshirted last year) They have gotten much bigger and deeper upfront; especially at nose tackle.

No big losses at LB and they added 2 junior college transfers. This is a solid group.

Huge losses in the secondary as they lost their top 4 corners. (safety play will be fine). Performance of the secondary will depend on a couple redshirt freshman a transfer from UAB. (Devon Brown) This is my biggest concern on the team.

I think the preseason rankings of ODU are a little low because of the loss of Heinicke. If Bentley can translate his practice ability to games, he will be every bit as productive as Heincke has been the last 2 years; the guy looks like an absolute stud in practice.

Therefore, I do expect ODU to put a solid beating on Eastern Michigan, but the 1 game nerves of a redshirt freshman QB are the big question mark.
 
Really appreciate all the info Dollaz

Shuler Bentley is the son of Bobby Bentley who built Byrnes High School to a Texas like powerhouse offense and is now an offensive analyst at Auburn. The kid has a solid pedigree
 
Thanks for posting again, always a must read.

Duly noted on 'slowing' the pace.:shake:
 
B.A.R. said:
Thanks for posting again, always a must read.

Duly noted on 'slowing' the pace.:shake:
Click to expand...


Started to see it last 3-4 games last year so I don't thin it is just coach speak. With a new QB, they are certainly going to slow the game down. The defense should be a hair better this year (hard not to be) so I think the unders should be advantageous early on.
 
So the plan to use a TE died when starter (a guy i exoected big things from) tore AcL and the backup broke his leg.

Back to 4 wides (very talented Wr core) but Wilder insists they Are going to run more and slow it down.
 
Dollaz said:
So the plan to use a TE died when starter (a guy i exoected big things from) tore AcL and the backup broke his leg.

Back to 4 wides (very talented Wr core) but Wilder insists they Are going to run more and slow it down.
Click to expand...

Pace link please from wilder
 
wilder is very encouraged by the running game. Not just Lawry, but the depth at RB is something they've never had. The backup is impressing most people around the team. There is also some young blood that is simply blocked.

Scrimmage was this past Saturday. Maybe I should be worried bc the defensive line completely dominated in the open scrimmage portion. They have an inflix of talent added at DL however its almost all freshman and redshirt freshman outside of Coward (possible draft pick) and Barnwell.

Im not sure what to think defensively. i expect them to be better but worried about the corners. (Played well sat). The front 7 is much larger and faster (and frankly better) than we've ever had. Hopefully it was just a case of the defense playing well and not the offense being subpar.

I really like the depth on this team everywhere outside of QB and CB. There isnt a slot that one injury will cripple a unit.
 
Alright boys and girls, my favorite time of the year!

Lets go with what I believe to be facts this year:

ODU's defense will be better. Whether that means top 100 or top 75, Im not sure. But, I don't believe they will be among the worst 5-10 in the country like last year. The reasons are they are more experience and bigger/stronger/faster. The DL has been a huge weakness and they have really improved it. Two pass rushing DE's were redshirted last year and they have a 6-6 Jevon Kearse sized true freshman that has earned a starting spot. So, they are deep at DE. The DT spot will be much bigger this year as well and Coward has made a huge jump and there is some talk about him having some NFL potential. I am very optimistic about the pass rush this year. (they do have some more experience DL, but those guys have been passed on the depth chart)


Wilder quote: With a week before ODU opens at Eastern Michigan on Sept. 5, Wilder said the Monarchs playbook is a work in progress. Bentley has at times looked outstanding, and at other times struggled. He completed 70 percent of his passes in his first 1 1/2 weeks of workouts, but that dropped to 60 percent in the last 10 days or so.
Bentley hasn't been as accurate, partly because ODU's defense is so much better, Wilder said.
"He's throwing well and this is against a much better defense than we had last year," Wilder said. "It he completes 60 percent of his passes, we're going to win a lot of football games."

Linebackers and safeties essentially remain in tact. Corners are the big question mark this year as we lost everyone. Hopefully with improved pass rush and overall defensive play, that can be hidden a bit.

The offense will be run by a redshirt freshman that has been mostly good, but still a freshman. The coaches are going to ease him in and rely on stud running back Ray Lawry. Not only is he very talented, but they have 3 backs behind him that have run very well. Running back is going to be a huge strength and the coaches will run the ball despite it being out of a 4 WR shotgun look. THe offensive line appears healthy and should be a slight improvement over last year; mainly at RT.

Wide receivers, as always, is a deep position. WRs want to play at ODU because of the offense they run and the team just stacks up on recruits. No reason to really read more into it, they have a ton of options, with flexibility of small/fast guys and big/possession types.

Next post is the EMU discussion....
 
Eastern Michigan at home. EMU is not expected to win many games this year, but this is one they will certainly be fired up for as one of the few winnable games on their schedule. They took a massive hit when Pat O Conner was ruled out (best defensive player)

EMU offense lacks playmakers and have a running QB. Last year Bell threw 6 picks, fumbled 11 times, and was sacked 22 times in only 184 attempts. EMU lost their top runner and receiver (TE) from last year. It seems they have some talent, but no experience at all. The offensive line is starting over after losing 3 starters. lost a 3 year starter, 2-two year starters, and 2 other backups)

EMU went about it like ODU did and redshirted their top defensive recruits even if they may have been good enough to play. There is a little bit of promise along the young defense. last year they were decent vs. the ruN (o conner a huge loss here) and pitiful vs. the pass. Secondary looks to be a huge weakness with newcomers having to take over (2 star guys)

I've already talked about ODU. Asking a freshman QB to make his first start and be it on the road is a tall order. Thus, I think the coaching staff will attempt to take pressure off him. They will run the ball more than usual, they will try safe passes, they will slow down the clock. I really think this game goes under. My prediction is ODU 27-17. I expect the line to move towards ODU and under.

EDIT: Week 1 is always the toughest for me. So many question marks and you really don't get to see much in preseason.
 
Really good stuff on your Monarchs Dollaz, that under admittedly wasn't on my radar but given the info you've provided here I'm going to look it over. Thanks for the tips
 
ODU had lost five in a row when coach Bobby Wilder tapped the offense’s brakes in a 38-35 victory over Florida International.
He slammed on the brakes the following week. ODU trailed Louisiana Tech 24-14 when the Monarchs took the opening kick of the second half and methodically took nine minutes off the clock while driving 56 yards to set up Satchel Ziffer’s 46-yard field goal.
By the time the Bulldogs’ offense got back on the field, it had lost its sizzle. ODU eventually won in overtime 33-27.
“We ran almost 10 minutes off the clock,” Wilder said. “In the past, that was five possessions for us.”
Becoming more deliberate was a decision dictated by the bigger, stronger opponents ODU began facing in the FBS, Wilder said.
“We used to be able to dominate the pace and wear people down and hang in there on defense and win a lot of games. But because of the change in the level of competition, we weren’t able to do that.”

Fucking thank you! At least one coach out there gets how this is supposed to work. Your football team is comprised of an offense AND a defense and if they don't compliment each other you aren't maximizing your ability. This was one of the most refreshing articles I have read all summer. Thank you very much for posting it. Now hopefully 30 other "hurry-up no-huddle spread offensive" programs around the country will take notice.


 
It is refreshing. I have no problem with coaches wanting their offenses to play at pace when they have the edge and defensive depth. But asking little and lesser athletes to play at pace against bigger and faster guys while playing a fast pace is just, well, dumb. I think Wilder has it right. Maybe not for EMU this week but against some of the better teams they will face later. Personnel seems to fit running it more anyway this year.
 
jimmyshivers said:
Really good stuff on your Monarchs Dollaz, that under admittedly wasn't on my radar but given the info you've provided here I'm going to look it over. Thanks for the tips
Click to expand...

I expect some nerves and some really conservative player early on (and if the defense is playing well, the entire game). I really would be shocked if this game goes over unless there are a handful of turnovers converted into points. I mean, if Bentley comes out and looks like Taylor Heinicke there is a chance, but we are talking about someone with zero snaps and on the road with a shit load of talented running backs.
 
Plays:

GS -6.5
ODU u65.5
Boise o10 -130
Georgia o9 -140
Miami (fl) o7 +115
Wisconsin o9.5 -110
ODU to win CUSA +5000 (pure homer play and nothing else)
VT o8 -145
VT to win ACC +500
Miami +10 vs. Florida St
Bose -4 vs. Utah State
Miami +4.5 vs. Clemson
Penn State -2.5 vs. Michigan
VT -6.5 vs. UVA
ODU -6 (pure homer play again)
Tennesse -20.5
Ohio St/VT u53.5
 
Ari st +3.5
pen st -6.5
stanford -10.5
ark -33
ark o41.5
georgia southern +17.5
notre dame -9.5
 
Do not like first half. ODU looms bad on the OLine and defense isn't tackling. Pace is right for the under, but there were some plays left on fight and EMU is running right down the field. ODU has to make Bell a pocket QB bc he can't throw a lick but they are staying a head of the sicks and completing screen passes.

If 2H total is 30, I may buy out of under and pray for a middle. EMU gets the ball first and look to have a chance to wear down the. ODU defense.
 
Licking my wounds over my Stenson to win bet. Yikes.

I will add thoughts throughout the week. ODU should roll, however, I may lay off because these teams are close; staffs are close. Wilder is not going to run up the score if given the opportunity and it's hard for me to lay 25 knowing the starter may be pulled in the 3rd quarter in a 28 point game.

Mildly disappointed in the performance when watching the EMU game 2-3 times over. Will dig into some stats and hope my eyes deceived me.
 
Watching the game live, the pace of play seemed lower than it was. 156 plays run for 857 yards. Just not winning many unders with that.

EMU is not very adapt at passing at all. OL looked ok, but their QBs/scheme/WRs just aren't going to cut it. Having said that, they have a really athletic running QB and some big and agile running backs to keep the running game going. Overall, they passed for 5.3 yards per attempt and ran for 5.4 yards per rush. Their DL is pretty good at getting at the QB, but is very light and larger teams are going to run over them.

ODU, OTOH played poor gap control on defense. As expected some young guys got out of position on the DL. They were at their best when they could rush the passer in 3rd/4th down passing situations. At least this part of the team is improved. Offensively, they really didn't do much besides gash EMU on the ground. 5.6 yards per carry. The passing game was pretty conservative for the most part. I still cant understand why EMU didn't put 7 in the box and force ODU to beat them through the air. ODU is going to struggle with teams that are big across the DL that won't need 7-8 in the box to slow down the run. (Marshall, for example)

Overall, offense was pretty much as expected. Lawry went off for more but thought EMU would make some adjustments and didn't. Defense wasn't as good as I hope/believed coming out of camp.

LIne vs. NSU is around 25ish and I won't touch as explained earlier. I believe this is a 45-17 type game.
 
Some of these were bet yesterday, but I didn't get a chance to post.

Florida -19.5
Ville -11
Boise -2.5
ND -10.5
Rice +15.5
Utah -13.5
Wake +6
SMU -3
Ok pk
Nebraska -25.5
Stanford -18
Eastern Mich +13.5
 
This OdU team is just too young at this point. Some talent but just young mistakes. If im lining this NC St game, im lining it 20/67
 
How long do they keep Bentley out there? Are they going to stick with him assuming he's the future and a 4 year starter?
 
Schrute said:
How long do they keep Bentley out there? Are they going to stick with him assuming he's the future and a 4 year starter?
Click to expand...

Yes, why wouldnt they? Ignoring the only backups are a walk on, a WR, and a FCS recruit. (True backup is out for the year)

Im assuming you are talking about his stats and fans have started mentioning. But, as Ive said all summer, they are a running team and they arent askingg much of the freshman Qb with such a dominating running back. Bentley was very good at EMU. Last night he made a dumb decision and had 2-3 bad throws in the rain. But WRs had 5 drops that really hurt his numbers.
 
Dollaz said:
Yes, why wouldnt they? Ignoring the only backups are a walk on, a WR, and a FCS recruit. (True backup is out for the year)

Im assuming you are talking about his stats and fans have started mentioning. But, as Ive said all summer, they are a running team and they arent askingg much of the freshman Qb with such a dominating running back. Bentley was very good at EMU. Last night he made a dumb decision and had 2-3 bad throws in the rain. But WRs had 5 drops that really hurt his numbers.
Click to expand...

Shrute, reading this post, sounds like I was standoffish. Didn't mean it that way.
 
enjoy your info on ODU as not many people follow them, and from going to school in the Hampton Roads area, i find myself liking to follow them.

Secondly, NC State scores here. Can ODU hang with them?
 
Wake -3.5
Temple -12.5
Midd Ten -18
UNC -8
NC St -16.5
Northwester +3
Rice -7.5
La Tech +10.5
Navy -3.5
Cincy -19.5
Bowling Green +3
Western Ky +3
UTEP -4
 
Just short reasonings (obv. more thought than this)

Wake. The ended the Cuse game badly, but I like what I've seen. Army sucks

UNC is one of the teams I'm high on so I will look to take advantage and think they are undervalued.

Duke lost so much and NW could physically stand up to Stanford.

Rice had 30 first downs and went 14-21 on 3rd down conversions. They outgained Texas 462 to 277 yards. They rand for 228 and passed for 234. 5 turnovers were the difference (thankfully, they covered, but could have won) Rice is simply a much better team, I don't get the reasoning for the line here. The line says Rice will be a letdown spot; but what if they aren't? They win going away

Memphis was much better on defense last year and lost the whole unit including coordinator. Bowling Green isn't going to be stopped on offense. I don't understand them being home dogs by watching them vs. 2 power 5 conference teams.

UMASS is terrible and Temple has looked good first two weeks.

I think LA Tech might be the better team straight up

Im selling on ECU probably all year. Burned me last week, but I'm not quiting now.

I like Cincy a lot. They have a couple guys that will play in the NFL. They burned me last week, but put up 557 yards. Was all about turnovers.

Kind of an odd spot for WKY and they lost a big weapon in Allen, but this is purely a play against Indiana.

Is this Middle Tenn line a joke? At home and giving up less than 3 tds to basicall an FCS school? Granted Charlotte beat an awful Georgia State team and dominated an FCS school that had lost everything on offense. MTSU somehow stays under the radar as just a notch below CUSAs elite, but they are a very solid team. The upgrade at QB has been very good for them. I honestly think MTSU win by 30+

ODU/NC State will be separate post.

UTEP is a fad against NMSU. I think UTEP is pretty underrated this year.


Lean Miami but didn't play. Really thinking about ND, but I'm not really familiar with the QB.


Using SB nation previews (I love their material and just a capping tool):

Wake- 98 Army 118
UNC-48 Illini 79
NW- 57 Duke 60
Rice 74 North Tex 122
Memphis 62 BG 91
Temple 65 Mass 114
LT 72 Kan State 41
ECU 66 Navy 46
Cincy 40 Miami OH 121
Wky 51 Indiana 75
MTSU 84 Charlotte 128
NC State 45 ODU 86
UTEP 87 NMSU 126


Essentially, my card is fading teams that I believe are the worst in the nation :)
.
 
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So, how about that ODU defense? LOL. No touchdowns allowed in a game!

They really haven't given up much through 2 games and it's encouraging that EMU can go on the road and dominate. Obv level of competition is a large part, but ODU only giving up 355 yards per game and 5 yards per play so far. Rush defense has not been good (at least vs. EMU), but the pass defense has been impressive (53% completions, 4.9 yards per attempt, 2 sacks) However, NC State is a huge jump in competition; they go from 2 running QBs to a guy that can stand back and throw the ball, but is also athletic enough to be able to run.

Last year, ODU got off to a fast start and led 21-10 before allowing a late first half TD that gave NC state all the momentum and NC State just grinded ODU away by running the ball down their throats behind a big OL. Overall, ODU outgained them, but ran a bunch more plays. The difference is last year, NC State were so concerned with Heincke that they refused to put 7 guys in the box and ODU ran for 200 yards. I think this year, they load up the box to stop Lawry and try to force the freshman QB into mistakes. Im shocked that neither EMU or Norfolk State loaded up the box and you see the result (Lawry leading the nation in rushing yards). ODU has a big, physical OL and the run game is the strength this year. They may spread it out with 4 WRs, but it's a conservative run based attack. The WRs haven't been able to get on track like last year (pascal and Washington have minimal catches).

Saturday vs. Norfolk State was the most conservative gameplan I've seen from ODU; even more conservative than the prior week vs. EMU. WHy was that? Rain, maybe? Were they holding out the big guns till NC State, which Wilder has said is the biggest game in history? I don't know...but I believe Bentley is going to be a star, but is still a freshman and they are taking it slow. Im estatic about the run blocking of the ODU OL, but pass blocking from the tackles has been a bit erratic (luckily Bentley has gotten the ball out of his hands) I'm calling it now, ODU will empty the playbook, expect some trickery. So my thoughts on that side are that NC St is going to try to take the run game away and if Bentley isn't exceptional, they are going to be in trouble. I will say, I'm a huge fan of the ODU offensive coaches; they are as innovative as they come. The interesting thing is they have similar looks, but add wrinkles every week. This week, they had their best WR play fullback and ran for 10 yards per carry.

On the other side, NC State will move the ball. Defense for ODU has improved and they have a lot more depth, but it's young. That NC State OL will be able to push them around and wear on them. If its close, they are going to continue to grind away on the ground. IF NC State doesn't turn the ball over, they will put up points (30s or 40s, I would suspect). Brisset is a difficult QB to prepare for and we have struggled vs. running QBs so far (and those guys couldn't pass, where Brisset can throw the ball)

Special teams has been a disaster for ODU and I don't see that changing anytime soon. My heart can take any special teams action.

I took NC State -16.5 bc I think it should be 20-21. If the line moves through the week to 21, I will bet the other side as well and hope for a middle. Either way, I will be rooting against NC State -16.5 :) My prediction is that NC State will be able to move the ball (though defense is better and their is hope) On defense, they will load the box to stop the run and ODU will be slowed down more than required to stay in the game. I see the game roughly 41-20ish.


P.S. I do think assuming nothing crazy, that ODU contends for conference USA title in 2 years. The current freshman/sophomore classes are excellent.
 
Great analysis on ODU - exactly as i figured. load the box to stop the run and make the young QB beat them. It's possible, but I don't really see it happening, especially if NC State gets out to a decent lead. Line just popped a bit to 18 as well.
 
sabertstxvii said:
Great analysis on ODU - exactly as i figured. load the box to stop the run and make the young QB beat them. It's possible, but I don't really see it happening, especially if NC State gets out to a decent lead. Line just popped a bit to 18 as well.
Click to expand...

It would not shock me to be 21 at gametime. I kinda expect it.
 
Wake -3.5; now -5.5
Temple -12.5; now -10
Midd Ten -18; now -19
UNC -8; now -10.5
NC St -16.5; now -18
Northwester +3; now +3.5
Rice -7.5; now -8
La Tech +10.5; now +9
Navy -3.5
Cincy -19.5; now -19
Bowling Green +3
Western Ky +3' now +1.5
UTEP -4 ; now -2


Its really odd, but its' a trend since I was able to get in on openers (for me, which is Monday morning). Im not trying to predict the market, but I'm consistently getting good numbers and I can't really explain why.

Seriously considering doubling my bets on the openers and then coming back with half a bet on the other side if there is significant movement.
 
Hankerson is pretty decent for FCS QB. I didn't get to see Sangster bc he was out vs. ODU, but he played well vs. Rutgers. I believe they were missing another wideout as well and I haven't checked on the status of those 2 yet.

I know Gerard Johnson (RB) from his days starting at ODu. He's a decent back, Im not sure why he's getting zero yardage.
 
ManchesterUk said:
Thanks
thought this 42 might be a bit of a stretch aslong as NSU stack the box and try & slow Johnson and Watson down,try and make Birdsong beat you,if he does so be it.
But just seen that Holliday is going to play Litton aswell as Birdsong https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DW3eqUudBGc&feature=youtu.be which tempers my enthusiasm cause Birdsong isnt going to beat anybody..

ty pal
Click to expand...


FYI, Marshall is going to play alternating Birdsong and a true freshman QB this Saturday.
 
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