2015 Breeders' Cup

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Play2win

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2015 Breeders' Cup @ Keeneland

10/30: Distaff, Juvenile Filly Turf, Dirt Mile, Juvenile Turf

10/31: Juvenile Fillies, Filly & Mare Sprint, Filly & Mare Turf, Juvenile, Turf Sprint, Sprint, Turf, Mile, Classic
 
10/30 Distaff

Sheer Drama
Beholder (likely running in Classic)
Wedding Toast
Got Lucky
Frivolous
Salama
I'm a Chatterbox
Untapable
Curlina
Warren's Veneda
Stellar Wind
Include Betty
Lovely Maria
House Rules
Princess Violet
Birdatthewire
Yahilwa
Stopchargingmaria
 
Last edited:
10/30 Juvenile Filly Turf

Catch a Glimpse
Gamble's Ghost
Tin Type Gal
Caren
Thrilled
Time and Motion
Harmonize
Alice Springs
One Last Shot
Minding
Gomo
Theory of Change
Illuminate
Amira J
Acapulco
Jakaby Jade
 
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10/30 Dirt Mile

Appealing Tale
Madefromlucky
Valid
Divining Rod
Bradester
Gimme Da Lute
Wicked Strong
Protonico
Red Vine
Mr Z
Academic
Island Town
Tiz Shea D
Are You Kidding Me
Green Grotto
International Star (injured)
Private Zone (likely to run in Sprint)
Carve
Indexical
Liam's Map
 
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10/30 Juvenile Turf

Conquest Daddyo (Casse)
Airoforce (Casse)
Siding Spring (Casse)
Azar
Isotherm
Next Shares
Sky Marshal
Camelot Kitten
Kasseopia
Manhattan Dan
Unbridled Daddy
Ray's The Bar
Deauville
Air Vice Marshal
Hollywood Don (or in Juvenile?)
Tony Curtis
Washington DC
Uncle Brennie
 
Last edited:
10/31 Juvenile Fillies

Songbird
Gomo
Dothraki Queen
Nickname
Rachel's Valentina
Pretty N Cool
Land Over Sea
Just Wicked
Nemoralia
Tap To It
Constellation
Dream Dance
Ma Can Do It
Off the Tracks
Right There
 
10/31 Filly & Mare Sprint

Merry Meadow
Unbridled Forever
Fioretti
Dame Dorothy
La Verdad
Callback
Cavorting
Bar of Gold
By the Moon
Judy the Beauty
Living The Life
Street Story
Fantastic Style
Irish Jasper
Kiss to Remember
Uzziel
Taris
Stonetastic
 
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10/31 Filly & Mare Turf

Stephanie's Kitten
Watsdachances
Photo Call
Strut the Course
Covert Love
Legatissimo
Hard Not to Like
Prize Exhibit
Spanish Queen
Fanticola
Feathered
Sharla Rae
Ball Dancing
Elektrum
Filimbi
Lady Eli (injured)
Dacita
Found
Tapestry
Euro Charline
Secret Gesture
Sentiero Italia
Recepta
 
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10/31 Juvenile

Nyquist
Brody's Cause
Greenpointcrusader
Cocked and Loaded
Swipe
Exaggerator
Ralis
Uncle Vinny
Magna Light
Rated R Superstar
Sunny Ridge
Blameitonthelaw
He's Comin in Hot
Hollywood Don
Portfolio Manager
Riker
Conquest Big E
Sudden Surprise
Air Force Blue
 
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10/31 Turf Sprint

Lady Shipman
Chautauqua
Tower of Texas
Home Run Kitten
Something Extra
Channel Maker
Go Blue Or Go Home
Reporting Star
Shrinking Violet
Ageless
Get Happy Mister
Heat Trap
Home Journey
Katie's Eyes
Mongolian Saturday
No Silent
Power Alert
Shore Runner (was a contender but suffered a fatal breakdown during race Sat @ Kee)
Marchman
Wind Fire
Holy Lute
Tropics
Tightend Touchdown
Bobby's Kitten
Pure Sensation
Undrafted
Sweet Luca
Sharp Sensation
 
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10/31 Sprint

Runhappy
Wild Dude
Private Zone
Rock Fall
Favorite Tale
Masochistic
Kobe's Back
Dads Caps
Salutos Amigos
Barbados
Holy Boss
March
Ready for Rye
Stallwalkin' Dude
The Big Beast (injured)
Work All Week
Ivan Fallunovalot
Big Macher
 
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10/31 Turf

Big Blue Kitten
Flintshire
Big John B
Golden Horn
Postponed
Barolo
Slumber
Twilight Eclipse
Force the Pass
Ashleyluvssugar
Interpol
Red Rifle
Highland Reel
Triple Threat
War Dancer
Ordak Dan
Free Eagle
Imagining
The Grey Gatsby
Eagle Top
 
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10/31 Mile

Grand Arch
Tepin
Mondialiste
Esoterique
Futura
Solow
Finnegans Wake
The Pizza Man
Jack Milton
Lea
Mshawish
Avanzare
Grand Tito
Gabriel Charles
Talco (injured)
Ironicious (injured)
Make Believe
Ervedya
Alert Bay
King Kreesa
Obviously
Muhaarar
Territories
Arod
Dutch Connection
Karakontie
Euro Charline
Cougar Mountain
Toormore
Trade Storm
Seek Again
 
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10/31 Classic

American Pharoah
Honor Code
Tonalist
Noble Bird
Hard Aces
Smooth Roller
Liam's Map
Beholder
Frosted
Catch a Flight
Dortmund
Hoppertunity
Keen Ice
Upstart
Effinex
Gleneagles
 
Last edited:
Play2win said:
10/31 Turf Sprint

Lady Shipman
Chautauqua
Tower of Texas
Home Run Kitten
Something Extra
Channel Maker
Go Blue Or Go Home
Reporting Star
Shrinking Violet
Ageless
Get Happy Mister
Heat Trap
Home Journey
Katie's Eyes
Mongolian Saturday
No Silent
Power Alert
Shore Runner (was a contender but suffered a fatal breakdown during race Sat @ Kee)
Click to expand...
Lady Shipman will be a filly taking on the boys but I really like her chances. I'm pleased to see she is already at Keeneland training up to the race.
 
Play2win said:
10/31 Juvenile

Nyquist
Brody's Cause
Greenpointcrusader
Cocked and Loaded
Swipe
Exaggerator
Ralis
Uncle Vinny
Magna Light
Rated R Superstar
Sunny Ridge
Blameitonthelaw
He's Comin in Hot
Hollywood Don
Portfolio Manager
Riker
Conquest Big E
Click to expand...
I was really impressed by Exaggerator's win in The Saratoga Special, I liked his chances in Saturday's Breeders Futurity and thought he ran pretty good. In a post race interview , trainer Keith Desormeaux says he was sick after Saratoga and wasn't 100 percent and didn't train 100%...if this is true and he wasn't drinking with Kent before the interview, I like his chances even more in the Cup.

The East Coast dirt 2 yo colts have not been impressive and the California 2 yo's have been much better.
 
Tonalist is a great horse but I'll likely be against him in the Classic since he's ran his best races @ Belmont.

I like Honor Code even more as people may be down on his Kelso effort, but that race is a throw out for me.
 
Play2win said:
10/31 Filly & Mare Turf

Stephanie's Kitten
Watsdachances
Photo Call
Strut the Course
Covert Love
Legatissimo
Hard Not to Like
Prize Exhibit
Spanish Queen
Fanticola
Feathered
Sharla Rae
Ball Dancing
Elektrum
Filimbi
Lady Eli (injured)
Dacita
Found
Tapestry
Euro Charline
Secret Gesture
Sentiero Italia
Click to expand...
On a firm turf I'll be against Stephanie's Kitten, she does her best running on turf courses with give like she had in winning The Flower Bowl this past weekend.
 


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  • [*=center]Horse Futures






 
Longines Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) winner Lovely Maria is out of consideration for the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (gr. I) and will be rested the remainder of the year, trainer Larry Jones said Oct. 6 at Keeneland.
Brereton Jones' 3-year-old daughter of Majesticperfection faded to fifth in the Oct. 4 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (gr. I) at the Lexington track after showing the way early on. Although she rolled to her Kentucky Oaks victory off a score in the Central Bank Ashland Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland this spring, she has not won since then. She was fifth in the Delaware Oaks (gr. III) and sixth in the Alabama Stakes (gr. I) before her Spinster try.
HAMMONDS: Lovely Maria Easily Captures Kentucky Oaks
"We're not gonna run her in the Breeders' Cup," Jones said. "She's won two grade ones, she's a millionaire, and she's earned a rest. So they're gonna rest her a little bit, and then see what happens from there."
Lovely Maria, bred in Kentucky by Olin B. Gentry & Thomas B. Gaines out of the unraced Thunder Gulch mare Thundercup, ends her 2015 campaign with a career total of four wins and three seconds from 11 starts, for earnings of $1,003,000.
 
I liked how fair Keeneland was playing this weekend. I love Santa Anita but it seems like it's always an early speed track on Breeder's Cup weekends. If they can keep it running fair I think Keen Ice has a shot to upset the applecart in the Classic, especially if Liam's Map goes.
 
Gandolf said:
I liked how fair Keeneland was playing this weekend. I love Santa Anita but it seems like it's always an early speed track on Breeder's Cup weekends. If they can keep it running fair I think Keen Ice has a shot to upset the applecart in the Classic, especially if Liam's Map goes.
Click to expand...
:shake:
 
Unreal how well these Keeneland pick 4's are paying right now. Likely has something to do with 14 horse fields.
 
Play2win said:
10/31 Sprint

Runhappy
Wild Dude
Private Zone
Rock Fall
Favorite Tale
Masochistic
Kobe's Back
Dads Caps
Salutos Amigos
Barbados
Holy Boss
March
Ready for Rye
Stallwalkin' Dude
The Big Beast (injured)
Work All Week
Ivan Fallunovalot
Big Macher
Click to expand...


Rock Fall suffered a fatal breakdown training this morning.
 
YoungGun11 said:
Unreal how well these Keeneland pick 4's are paying right now. Likely has something to do with 14 horse fields.
Click to expand...

I must've picked the wrong day to play Keeneland. Here were the win prices today:

$4.80, $3.40, $6.00, $5.80, $8.00, $4.40, $5.40, $8.20. That's six winners at 2/1 or less, the other two at 3/1. Seems like that happens more often than not since they got rid of the poly.
 
I played today hitting both pick 4's and lost money. Today was a joke, and really to me it didn't look like there would be that many low odds. I thought it was relatively wide open with all those Maiden races, apparently I was wrong. I am not sure if they are getting more barn money in, as they are more confident on their horses with no poly but I agree low prices lately. Every single favorite had the perfect trip today. By the way the 4 that got cut off twice by the 3 in the 5th.........yeah he was my single at 5-1
 
David Grening , Belmont Park , 2015-10-19 - DRF LivePosted : 1hr 19mins ago
[h=2]Honor Code: Wow![/h]HONOR CODE, prepping for the Breeders' Cup Classic, just put in a brilliantly fast workout, going a half-mile -- on my watch -- in 46.14 seconds, out five-furlongs in 58.16, six furlongs in 1:11.07 and seven furlongs in 1:24.50. I took him from the half-mile pole. Colleague Mike Vesce took him from the five-furlong pole and said he went his first eighth in 13 seconds. So, if you factor that eighth in he went a mile in 1:37.50.
Exercise rider Donna McMullen was aboard for the work, which came at 8:50 a.m. McMullen only asked Honor Code minimally late in the work and during the gallop out.
Honor Code usually works at 6:30 a.m. but I believe trainer Shug McGaughey waited until after the break to make sure water was put on the track at the renovation break. Temperatures were in the low 30s to start the day and the track was dry and fairly cuppy during early morning works.
Will have more details on this and other works later on drf.com
One of the works was MERRY MEADOW, who went a half-mile in 47.10 seconds a few minutes after Honor Code finished up.
Still to come is WICKED STRONG, who is scheduled to work around 9:30 a.m. on training track.

 
Beholder missed last year Breeders Cup with a 104 degree fever, hopefully this is just travel related and she's over quickly.
 
American Ph 6/5 on the morning line? He won't be any lower than 3/2. Going against older for the first time will keep plenty people away from the horse.
 
Last years 3 year old crop was outstanding, finishing 1-6 in the Classic. Of those 6, only Tonalist is here.
 
If you like playing multi-race wagers the sequence on Saturday from Race 4 (Turf Sprint) through Race 9 (Juvenile) looks like it will catch the best payouts. I'll be rolling pick 3s through there.

Early Pick 4 (Races 3-6) looks like you can anchor with Songbird and Land Over Sea at the start, while the Late Pick 4 has Golden Horn/Found in the Turf and AP/Beholder in the Classic as the most logical places to go narrow.

Friday's four BC races look attractive from a multi-race standpoint, even if Liam's Map runs away in the Dirt Mile.
 
[h=1]Second Choice Beholder Out of Breeders’ Cup Classic[/h]OCTOBER 29, 2015 BY MICHAEL DEMPSEY
Beholder, the second choice in early wagering for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) will scratch. (Photo credit: Breeders’ Cup Ltd.)
​
The brilliant mare Beholder, who was the 3-1 second choice on the morning line for Saturday’s $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), will scratch according to her trainer Richard Mandella.
Mandella said this morning that the mare has “irritated tissue in her lung” that caused bleeding after doing her morning work on Thursday. The mare also spiked a fever upon arriving in Kentucky, but her temperature was back to normal the following afternoon.
“There’s obviously some irritated lung tissue there,” Mandella said at this morning’s press conference. “She will be fine, but if I put her under the pressure of a race situation, it could cause some real damage. This was obviously due to the fever she had when she arrived. You could say we just haven’t had any luck shipping, but it’s been something different every time. She’s an aggressive mare and just got herself worked up shipping and made herself sick.”
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SCA3qBq9-Us?rel=0" width="460" height="315" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe>
Mandella stated that the plan is still to run the mare next year.
She has won 15 of her 20 career starts including winning the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). She was already proven against males, winning the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar in August by 8 ¼ lengths.
Her defection could make things even easier for Triple Crown winner American Pharoah as there is a lack of early speed in the race. American Pharoah is the 6-5 morning line favorite and his price is now expected to go even lower.
Beholder was attempting to become just the second female to win the Classic. Zenyatta was the first, winning in 2009 and she suffered her only loss in her career when she ran second in the 2010 edition behind Blame.
 
Approach to tomorrow's BC pick 4:

Race 6 - Juvenile Turf - Two year olds, with some having never run in the US, this one has spread written all over it. Four straight winners have had experience in Europe, which would qualify 4, 6, 7, 13 & 14. BRIS Class wise those are also the top 5 in the field. Sounds good to me. The two Casse runners, 8 and 10, both have graded stakes wins over softer turf so they may need to be respected as well. Favorites are only 1 for 8, so I may toss the post time favorite on general principle. A - 4,6,7,13,14 (toss fave) B - 8,10

Race 7 - Dirt Mile - Liam's Map is the clear favorite here, but figures to run into pressure early with Bradester, Mr. Z and Valid all able to scoot. He took some pressure in the Whitney and was nabbed at the wire by Honor Code, but that was an extra furlong and there is no Honor Code in this field. I see him gutting the pressers/stalkers and looking to hold off Red Vine and Lea down the stretch. A - 3 B - 1,5

Race 8 - Juvy Filly Turf - Another battle of Euro's vs North Americans. Americans have done better here, winning 5 of 7, but this year's trio of Alice Springs, Illuminate and Last Waltz looks especially strong. Favorites are only 1 for 7 in this race, so I'm going to try to beat Harmonize. Casse's entry Catch a Glimpse drew away in the Natalma in a wire to wire score, but here she'll encounter pace pressure from Rudy Notion stretching out from short sprints. Another stretch out who's shown class is Nemoralia, who ran well in the slop in the Frizette but now comes back to the turf, where she ran well in European sprints. A - 3,10,14 B - 4,9

Race 9 - Distaff - a wickedly tough race, unusual for this event after watching heavy favorites like Zenyatta, Royal Delta and Beholder romp over the years. The Racing Post has no fewer than ten of these rated within 10 points of each other. Four me that means tossing Stellar Wind, Frivolous and her delicious 30/1 odds, Salama and Peace and War. Also, the consensus is outside posts will be up against it, so I'm tossing Sheer Drama and Warren's Veneda on that account. Of the remaining 8, I'll apply the adage that Grade 1 horses win Grade 1 races. That tosses Calamity Kate and Yahilwa. So I'm left with 6:

1 - I'm a Chatterbox
4 - Stopchargingmaria
6 - My Sweet Addiction
7 - Wedding Toast
8 - Curalina
12 - Got Lucky

Of those, the ones I think will be running better in the stretch will be Wedding Toast, I'm a Chatterbox and Got Lucky. Those will be my A's. A - 1,7,12 B - 4,6,8
 
Gandolph love reading your stuff man. I took today and tomorrow off. I am just starting tomorrow's card and will try to post a full analysis, but as you know it is a ton of work.
 
Timh said:
Second Choice Beholder Out of Breeders’ Cup Classic

OCTOBER 29, 2015 BY MICHAEL DEMPSEY
Beholder, the second choice in early wagering for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) will scratch. (Photo credit: Breeders’ Cup Ltd.)
​
The brilliant mare Beholder, who was the 3-1 second choice on the morning line for Saturday’s $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), will scratch according to her trainer Richard Mandella.
Mandella said this morning that the mare has “irritated tissue in her lung” that caused bleeding after doing her morning work on Thursday. The mare also spiked a fever upon arriving in Kentucky, but her temperature was back to normal the following afternoon.
“There’s obviously some irritated lung tissue there,” Mandella said at this morning’s press conference. “She will be fine, but if I put her under the pressure of a race situation, it could cause some real damage. This was obviously due to the fever she had when she arrived. You could say we just haven’t had any luck shipping, but it’s been something different every time. She’s an aggressive mare and just got herself worked up shipping and made herself sick.”
<iframe width="460" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SCA3qBq9-Us?rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe>
Mandella stated that the plan is still to run the mare next year.
She has won 15 of her 20 career starts including winning the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). She was already proven against males, winning the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar in August by 8 ¼ lengths.
Her defection could make things even easier for Triple Crown winner American Pharoah as there is a lack of early speed in the race. American Pharoah is the 6-5 morning line favorite and his price is now expected to go even lower.
Beholder was attempting to become just the second female to win the Classic. Zenyatta was the first, winning in 2009 and she suffered her only loss in her career when she ran second in the 2010 edition behind Blame.
Click to expand...


That's too bad. Was looking forward to seeing her run.
 
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