2015 Breeders' Cup

[Nugzz]

I love these two days of racing.. Let's find these winners

 

[Gandolf]

Going to watch the first few races today carefully as they are the only sprints on the card to give a clue about tomorrow's sprint races. Keeneland before the poly had a reputation for being an early speed track on big days. Yesterday you needed to be within 2-3 lengths of the lead on the sprint races to have any shot. The two turn races played a bit more fairly.

There is a pretty good stone cold closer in the first race, Helooksthepart, that could say a lot about the finishing ability of the dirt course.

 

[Gandolf]

This first race might provide a taste of how much a good experience on this track will help. Pablo Del Monte is the only horse in the field that's won at KEE. Helooksthepart is the only horse that hasn't run on this track.

Looks like the 7 should be best here, the 5 adding blinkers also merits a look, and 6 to pick up the pieces late.

 

[Gandolf]

5-4-2. #5 is now 3-5 at KEE. Chalk one up for KEE experience. The fractions were solid and the 4 & 5 were top two all the way around.

 

[Gandolf]

6 is a nice overlay in Race 2 and will be up near the lead. 7 makes sense too. 5 taking money but will need some pace to run at. 1 coming back off a year layoff for good connections, bettors seem to be sniffing him out.

 

[Gandolf]

Looks to me like you'll need to be right near the front in the Sprint tomorrow to win it.

 

[Gyno]

Going with the #7 Allied air Raid. First time vs older but is dropping in class should get a great trip right off leaders and should relish the distance. Also a nice steady work tab with a sweet breeze most recently of 48.

 

[Timh]

Going with the #7 Allied air Raid. First time vs older but is dropping in class should get a great trip right off leaders and should relish the distance. Also a nice steady work tab with a sweet breeze most recently of 48.

I agree GL

 

[Gyno]

$20 W on 7
$30 P on 7

 

[Gyno]

Didn't see that #8.. guess the horse loves the distance.

 

[Gandolf]

Seeing some love for the 2 in race 4 but he didn't exactly love the soft going his last time out. I going with an exacta box of 3, 8, 9, 10. 8 may just be able to steal this one on the front end. 3 is Chad's and has a strong late kick. 9 is a logical contender and 10 ships in from Canada for Roger Attfield and has shown a nice closing drive his last few races.

 

[Gandolf]

Oh those Kittens.

 

[KJ]

Monumental had a decent stretch run coming on the rail just snapped off

 

[Gandolf]

Man, if Pletcher can't win this next one....

 

[Gandolf]

Playing Commissioner to win Race 5. Thinks he breaks to the front and wires this.

 

[KJ]

Did pk3 3,4,5,6,9/4,8,12,13/3

I do like the 6 and 9 here

 

[Gandolf]

9 caught wide on first turn, booo

 

[KJ]

Then got squeezed

 

[Gandolf]

Race Day much the best, bettors knocked him down from 10/1 to 4/1, so he wasn't a secret.

 

[Gandolf]

2 for 2 at Keeneland for Race Day. Familiarity with the track is a plus so far today.

 

[Gandolf]

Ray's the Bar getting pounded early, 20/1 down to 9/2 !!

 

[Gandolf]

Flipping Stopchargingmaria to an A and Wedding Toast to a B based on track success.

 

[ksimpsc]

so are pick 3s picking just the winner or if a pick out of your picks places does that keep it alive?

 

[Gyno]

so are pick 3s picking just the winner or if a pick out of your picks places does that keep it alive?

have to "win" 3 consecutive races in a row.

 

[ksimpsc]

thanks just tracking the races and odds trying to get into it

 

[Gyno]

if you have any questions let me know

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Liam's Map is certainly the one beat but 1/5 is ridiculous. Mr. Z and Bradester on either side of him have enough speed to keep the pace up front honest. Like Lea to get a nice stalking trip here, has the back class and 3 for 3 at the distance, although they were 1 turn races has run well around 2 turns going longer.

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Red Vine and Wicked Strong are the other 2 I am looking at to sit a few lengths back and should be running late.

 

[KJ]

R7 dd 1,2,5/3,4,7,8,10

 

[Gandolf]

Taking a quirky shot here, the last 7 years a 3YO has finished in the money. There's only three 3YOs this year and they're all longshots, but what the hell, for 9 bucks its worth a shot:

1,3,5 / 1,3,5 / 4,7,11

 

[KJ]

Just added 1 WP and 1,2,3,5 tribox

 

[Gandolf]

You look up the phrase "much the best", you'll see a video of this race.

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Everything went agaisnt Liam's Map there and he still wins going away, very impressive.

 

[Timh]

Amazing recovery by Liam's Map.

 

[KJ]

That was insane, horse belonged facing a bigger challenge this weekend

 

[KJ]

R8 3WP, 3,7,10,14 exb

 

[Timh]

Didn't post this because quite frankly I never thought I would have a chance but handicapped the Pick 4 with a friend and played this and it hit on a $64/tix...

Ticket Details: # 308801256
[TABLE="class: record, width: 769"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Wager Type : Racebook[/TD]
[TD="width: 13%, align: center"] [/TD]
[TD="width: 13%"]Risk / To Win Amount : $64.00 / $774.70(USD)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 13%"]Wager Status : Win[/TD]
[TD="width: 13%, align: center"] [/TD]
[TD="width: 13%"]Accepted : Oct 30, 2015 03:03 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 13%, colspan: 2"]Won: $774.70[/TD]
[TD="width: 13%"]Graded: Oct 30, 2015 06:09 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 13%, colspan: 3"]Amount Paid: $838.70[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 2%, colspan: 1"]Description:[/TD]
[TD="width: 13%, colspan: 2"]Oct-30 KEN R6 1.00 USD PK4 6,8,13,14/3/3,4,9,10/1,4,7,12
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[KJ]

timmy :cheers3:

 

[ksimpsc]

nice win Tim!

 

[KJ]

Have a feeling 4 takes this one but that 14 in this race is so intriguing

got 4/14 exb and 4/9/13/14 tribox

 

[KJ]

tri made the day not so bad, one more horse day for me tomorrow

 

[Timh]

Thanks fellas, that was exciting but almost shit myself over that jockey objection in the 9th.....look fwd to tomorrow. BTW props to all you guys that are experienced horse players, I have been following along and trying to learn and the info and dialogue here is really great. I am headed up to Del Pk with some friends and we'll have some fun and put a Pick 6 ticket together. Lot of fun, and hopefully keep an eye on the football too. GL

 

[KJ]

Have fun tim, always a good time at the track with friends on a big day

 

[Marsski]

You look up the phrase "much the best", you'll see a video of this race.

Thanks for posting brother. Followed your picks to pay dirt in the pick4.

 

[Gandolf]

Thanks for posting brother. Followed your picks to pay dirt in the pick4.

:cheers3:

Glad I flipped Stopchargingmaria into an A slot, worked out well!

 

[Timh]

Great job Gandolf, thanks for all your thoughts and info.

 

[Gandolf]

Thanks Timh, congrats on your Pick 4 his as well!

Taking a smallish stab at the Pick 5, could spend 5 times as much and still not feel comfortable.

1,2,3,8 / 4,10 / 9,10 / 1,5 / 2,3,6

Race 1 has six that could be worthy. Staying away from the 7 who's best efforts have been on poly, and Chad's #9 who's coming off a 7 month layoff. Layoff horses on days like yesterday and today, where everyone is wanting to fire his best shot, have a tough hill to climb.

Race 2 features #4 who was entered as an AE in the Juvy Turf but is also a quality sprinter, and #10 who has a sharp win on this track. 3 and 7 are also possible.

Race 3, Juvenile Fillies, comes down to how much you trust Songbird, who's numbers are 3-4 lengths better than the rest. Respect Rachel's Valentina based on breeding, her first time around two turns today, could be a freak.

Race 4 and Race 5 are inscrutable sprints where 8-10 entrants have a shot in each. Just using my top choices there but there a few bad ideas in those races.

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Thanks Timh, congrats on your Pick 4 his as well!

Taking a smallish stab at the Pick 5, could spend 5 times as much and still not feel comfortable.

1,2,3,8 / 4,10 / 9,10 / 1,5 / 2,3,6

Race 1 has six that could be worthy. Staying away from the 7 who's best efforts have been on poly, and Chad's #9 who's coming off a 7 month layoff. Layoff horses on days like yesterday and today, where everyone is wanting to fire his best shot, have a tough hill to climb.

Race 2 features #4 who was entered as an AE in the Juvy Turf but is also a quality sprinter, and #10 who has a sharp win on this track. 3 and 7 are also possible.

Race 3, Juvenile Fillies, comes down to how much you trust Songbird, who's numbers are 3-4 lengths better than the rest. Respect Rachel's Valentina based on breeding, her first time around two turns today, could be a freak.

Race 4 and Race 5 are inscrutable sprints where 8-10 entrants have a shot in each. Just using my top choices there but there a few bad ideas in those races.

BOL bud, took a similar approach and we see the first 3 much alike, diverging a bit in last 2 which as you said are wide open.

My Pick 5 ticket: 3,4,8/4,5/9,10/3,12/3,7,11

 

[ksimpsc]

ill join the fun today some, no pick 5 on bookmaker but did a pick 3 for the first 3 races for $24
2, 3, 8 / 4, 5, 7, 10 / 9, 10

 

[Gandolf]

Bol Lloyd and all. Posts will be limited this afternoon (f the BC for running on Halloween).