Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Updated 8/29/2014
A few brief words on tiers. They are becoming more popular, so most people already understand them. I group players into tiers to maximize value of picks round-by-round. The goal is not to pinpoint certain players in drafts and target only those players. Of course there will be certain guys that you might hope to get at some point in the draft, but it's better to ignore names and rely on your tiers. Group players together who you think could have similar stats, and the goal is to get the last player available from that tier.
Onto the WR position…
As the NFL has moved to a passing league, more teams are utilizing open systems and therefore more WRs have been productive over the past few seasons. This is a great year for WRs in fantasy. The position is deep, and the top tier is filled with high ceiling players who should produce like traditional RB1’s.
I’ve mentioned before that unless you have a top 3 pick, I think the safe play is to take a WR in round 1 (TE Graham is certainly in that discussion, as well). With the lack of consistent RB options in round 2, I also think it’s a good idea to take a WR in round 2. In fact, I don’t think it’s crazy to start the draft with 3 WRs in the first three rounds, especially in a PPR league. By taking 3 stud WRs, you can pencil them in weekly and you never have to replace them (unless they get hurt, but anyone can get hurt). That allows you to use the rest of the draft on multiple RBs.
These are PPR rankings. A few guys might get some bumps, but generally the rankings aren’t much different from standard rankings.
Tier 1
[TABLE="width: 94"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 94"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]C Johnson9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D Thomas4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Green4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bryant11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marshall9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Graham (TE)6[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
These are safe, stud WRs. Everyone on this list has the potential to go 90-1300-10+, and they all have very low floors. These WRs will produce like Tier 1 RBs. Because RB is so thin, I wouldn’t draft these guys before any of the top-3 RBs. But any of these WR’s could be considered beginning with #4 overall. You can debate the order of this list, but here are my thoughts.
Johnson vs. Thomas is the biggest debate I have. I need to make the decision in at least one of my leagues. Right now, I lean Johnson as the #1 overall WR due to consistency. Detroit also brought in Tate, which should lessen the amount of triple teams that Johnson sees. Johnson, however, will turn 29 in September and has had some previous injury concerns. It’s something to consider when you are nitpicking between him and the other WR’s as #1 at the position. Thomas is just hitting his prime, and his ceiling could be higher, especially with Decker gone. It’s a close call.
I’m a huge Dez Bryant fan, and I’ve owned him every year he’s been in the league. I have some concerns this season, though. I don’t trust that Romo still remain healthy for 16 games due to his back issue. If that’s the case, Dallas is left with Weeden as the backup (Orton recently retired). It’s enough of a risk for me to choose some other guys over Dez. I still would have no problem with Dez in round 2 if the other guys are gone. If Romo plays 16 games, Dez probably finishes #1 at the position. He’s that good.
I’m confident that Jeffery’s year wasn’t a fluke. First, he came into the league with a lot of hype, so his production wasn’t too much of a surprise. It’s the fact that he produced in just his second year that opened some eyes. WRs usually don’t breakout until their third years. However, elite guys like Gordon, Green, and Jones all produced before their third years, and I think Jeffrey is on that level if not better. He really didn’t do much to start the year and still finished with insane numbers. Playing next to Marshall also helps. Plus, Trestman’s system seems to fit the Bears offense perfectly. Unlike Romo, if Cutler does go down, I think whoever wins the backup job will fill in well, as evidenced by journeyman, McCown’s performance last season.
Assuming I don’t get a top-3 pick, I’d like to come away with either two WRs from Tier 1, or Graham and one WR from Tier 1.
Tier 2
[TABLE="width: 108"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Nelson9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Brown12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jeffery9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ju Jones*9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cobb*9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thomas (TE)4
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
I usually don’t like making small tiers. It puts a lot of pressure on these guys to deliver, and it’s not good to isolate just a few players in the draft. But I see a fairly large jump in risk/reward with this tier. This is the near-elite tier. These are WR1’s in PPR leagues, but they offer more risk than the Tier 1 WRs. For Julio, it’s all about health. If he plays 16 games, he’s a Tier 1 guy. The problem is that he’s never done it before. Same for Nelson and Cobb – both are coming off injuries. But with James Jones gone, they both have immense potential in this offense. Brown still seems underrated. He might not have as high of a ceiling as the Tier 1 guys because his TD potential isn’t as high, but he is a 100+ catch threat in this offense. That makes him even more valuable in PPR. He’s still only 26, so he might not have reached his full potential. 8 TD’s might not be his cap.
I’m targeting these guys in the 3rd or 4th round as my WR2 or Flex option.
*A quick note. There is a chance to come away with Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, and Alshon Jeffery in the first three rounds, according to some sites’ ADP numbers. Those are 3 impact players who can dominate weeks, especially in PPR. I rather start my team with those 3 players as opposed to taking a risk on a RB.
Tier 3
[TABLE="width: 108"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Cruz*8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Patterson10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Floyd4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]K Allen10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G Tate9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fitz4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]V Jax7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Harvin4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Crabtree*8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sanders4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colston*6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wright9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Garcon10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wallace5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]White*9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Johnson10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cameron (TE)4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]T Williams11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gronk (TE)*
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Anyone in this tier could finish in the top-10 at the position in a PPR league. But they all have at least one question mark that keeps them out of Tier 2. I hope that a few of them bump up to Tier 2 once training camp gets underway. For now, I’d feel much better if these guys were my FLEX or bench option.
Is Keenan Allen for real? That’s the only thing keeping him out of Tier 2. He has 100 catch potential in this offense, so he could still pull WR1 numbers in PPR even if the TD’s aren’t there. There simply aren’t too many other good WR’s for Rivers to throw to.
I’m very high on Golden Tate in this offense playing opposite Calvin Johnson, discussed in another thread. Cruz should bounce back, as he will likely play more in the slot this year. In my opinion, a more natural position for him. He has 90+ catch potential, especially if the Giants younger guys don’t pan out. Eli will look early and often to Cruz. Floyd is in line for a big year. I see him matching, if not surpassing Fitz’s numbers this year. He’s also entering his prized 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] year in the league. Palmer had a decent 2013, and I expect this offense to be better in Arians’ downfield system. Floyd is a perfect fit for the system.
Garcon won’t catch 100+ balls this year with the addition of Jackson and a full season of Reed (assuming health). I still think he and RG3 have a good rapport, and Garcon should produce decent numbers in a more passing friendly system.
V Jax has been extremely consistent in his career, but I’m not sure how he will gel with McCown. It’s keeping him off Tier 2, for now. But he could bump up if camp reports are positive. Tampa seems to have the big targets like McCown had in Chicago, but the WRs in Chicago are better and Trestman isn’t coaching Tampa. Lovie Smith prefers to rely more on the run game.
I’m tempering my expectations for Patterson. For me, he should be drafted as more of a FLEX option. He’s got sky high potential, but I’m not sure what to expect from this Vikings offense, likely going with rookie Bridgewater at QB. I still expect the Vikings to be run heavy and rely on shorter passes, while incorporating the TE. Patterson is becoming too popular of a breakout and might end up being over-drafted.
I’m high on the Atlanta pass game this season. The lack of running game and no TE should allow the WR’s plenty of opportunity for major stats. But White will turn 33 in November and history suggests WRs drop in production at age 33. I’d rather grab a younger guy with potential.
Wright’s upward trend in production combined with the fact that he is entering his 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] season has me intrigued. He has 90+ catch potential if Locker can stay healthy. Even if Locker goes down, he should remain a nice security blanket underneath for whoever the backup is (Whitehurst?). 90 catches with a modest bump to 14 YPC puts Wright at nearly 1300 yards. Pending his TD total, he could be a poor man’s Antonio Brown. He’s being drafted in round 7.
Sanders’ production might depend on the health of Welker. Welker is 33 and his concussion history is well-documented. The fact that I have Sanders in this tier and not Welker shows how much confidence I have in Welker this season. I’d love to see Sanders in the slot with Dem Thomas and Latimer on the outside. With a healthy Welker, Sanders is the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] option in the offense and his production is probably capped at FLEX stats.
Terrence Williams has a lot of potential as the clear cut #2 WR in the Dallas system. He should see plenty of single coverage next to Dez. He’ll be the third option in the pass game, but Dallas should throw a ton in a new pass happy system. Can Romo stay healthy? If not, Williams could be a major bust. Randle is in a very similar situation as Williams. He’s entering the year as the #2 WR in what should be a more pass happy offense. But his production will be dependent upon Eli bouncing back. He should with better O-line play. For me, Randle passed the eye test. He’s made plays similar to what I’ve seen from guys like AJ Green and Alshon Jeffery. Randle’s problem last year was more mental. He consistently ran bad routes, which led to a lot of interceptions for Eli. Randle is a big risk/reward play because you’re gambling that this 23 year old can learn the playbook. But he’s an ideal WR4 after you draft your core starters.
Tier 4
[TABLE="width: 94"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 94"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 107"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Hunter9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cooks6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hilton10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]T Smith11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D Jackson10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Edelman10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Randle8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ertz (TE)7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Reed (TE)10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]K Benjamin12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rudolph(TE)10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Decker11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bowe6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wheaton12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Boykin9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maclin*7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Douglas9[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
This tier consists of FLEX options who have the potential to produce like WR2’s.
Marvin Jones had 10 TD’s last year. You can call it a fluke, but a guy who scores double digit TD’s in his second year as a WR in the NFL deserves attention. He’s getting none. Jones will enter a big 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] year. He should be the clear cut #2 WR next to AJ Green. That helps a lot. Cinncy will likely run more this year, and Jones probably won’t get 10 TD’s again. But his targets should increase, as Sanu gets weeded out of the offense. A 75-1000-7 season is not out of the question for Jones. Those are WR2 fantasy numbers. He’s going in the 11[SUP]th[/SUP] round.
Temper expectations on all of the rookie WR’s based on past history, but there have been some outliers. Cooks fits that bill. He has Drew Brees at QB, a great offensive mind in Peyton, and he doesn’t need to be the #1 option in this offense. Sproles is gone, and Cooks will fill that slot role. Colston is getting up there in years, and there is a serious chance Cooks becomes the second option in one of the best passing offenses in the NFL.
I want to put Torrey Smith higher. He’s still young enough to where his stats can improve, but I think so many things cap his value this year: Flacco is a mediocre QB, Kubiak likes to pound the ball and utilize the TE, the Ravens signed Daniels and will play in a lot of 2 TE sets. Smith still has the potential to break out, but the guys in Tier 2 are in better situations.
Hilton and Nicks should/could be higher, and they could eventually rise up the board. Luck has all the options in the pass game to have a lot of success this year. Will Pep Hamilton open up the offense? We don’t know yet. I’m not sure how Wayne rebounds off an ACL injury at age 35, so the opportunity is there for Hilton and Nicks if Luck becomes a top-5 QB. It will happen, it’s just a matter of when.
Hopkins is another guy I wish I could put higher. I don’t expect Andre Johnson to play a full year…either holding out or getting injured. He’s also 33 years old. But the Texans pass game has serious question marks, and will likely be a run first offense. If Andre Johnson somehow gets traded, however, Hopkins moves to Tier 3 based on the opportunity. Hunter’s situation is similar to Hopkins. If Locker can play a full year, Hunter will have value this year. But if Locker gets injured, Hunter’s value will be capped by bad QB play. Also, the Titans will likely try to rely on the run game more this year. Hunter is the #2 WR behind Kendall Wright, but he still has serious upside and is deserving of a late round pick.
Tier 5
[TABLE="width: 107"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Hopkins10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Latimer4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]M Brown11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Evans7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Watkins9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Britt4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matthews7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Austin4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kearse4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Adams9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sanu4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stills6[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
A few brief words on tiers. They are becoming more popular, so most people already understand them. I group players into tiers to maximize value of picks round-by-round. The goal is not to pinpoint certain players in drafts and target only those players. Of course there will be certain guys that you might hope to get at some point in the draft, but it's better to ignore names and rely on your tiers. Group players together who you think could have similar stats, and the goal is to get the last player available from that tier.
Onto the WR position…
As the NFL has moved to a passing league, more teams are utilizing open systems and therefore more WRs have been productive over the past few seasons. This is a great year for WRs in fantasy. The position is deep, and the top tier is filled with high ceiling players who should produce like traditional RB1’s.
I’ve mentioned before that unless you have a top 3 pick, I think the safe play is to take a WR in round 1 (TE Graham is certainly in that discussion, as well). With the lack of consistent RB options in round 2, I also think it’s a good idea to take a WR in round 2. In fact, I don’t think it’s crazy to start the draft with 3 WRs in the first three rounds, especially in a PPR league. By taking 3 stud WRs, you can pencil them in weekly and you never have to replace them (unless they get hurt, but anyone can get hurt). That allows you to use the rest of the draft on multiple RBs.
These are PPR rankings. A few guys might get some bumps, but generally the rankings aren’t much different from standard rankings.
Tier 1
[TABLE="width: 94"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 94"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]C Johnson9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D Thomas4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Green4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bryant11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marshall9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Graham (TE)6[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
These are safe, stud WRs. Everyone on this list has the potential to go 90-1300-10+, and they all have very low floors. These WRs will produce like Tier 1 RBs. Because RB is so thin, I wouldn’t draft these guys before any of the top-3 RBs. But any of these WR’s could be considered beginning with #4 overall. You can debate the order of this list, but here are my thoughts.
Johnson vs. Thomas is the biggest debate I have. I need to make the decision in at least one of my leagues. Right now, I lean Johnson as the #1 overall WR due to consistency. Detroit also brought in Tate, which should lessen the amount of triple teams that Johnson sees. Johnson, however, will turn 29 in September and has had some previous injury concerns. It’s something to consider when you are nitpicking between him and the other WR’s as #1 at the position. Thomas is just hitting his prime, and his ceiling could be higher, especially with Decker gone. It’s a close call.
I’m a huge Dez Bryant fan, and I’ve owned him every year he’s been in the league. I have some concerns this season, though. I don’t trust that Romo still remain healthy for 16 games due to his back issue. If that’s the case, Dallas is left with Weeden as the backup (Orton recently retired). It’s enough of a risk for me to choose some other guys over Dez. I still would have no problem with Dez in round 2 if the other guys are gone. If Romo plays 16 games, Dez probably finishes #1 at the position. He’s that good.
I’m confident that Jeffery’s year wasn’t a fluke. First, he came into the league with a lot of hype, so his production wasn’t too much of a surprise. It’s the fact that he produced in just his second year that opened some eyes. WRs usually don’t breakout until their third years. However, elite guys like Gordon, Green, and Jones all produced before their third years, and I think Jeffrey is on that level if not better. He really didn’t do much to start the year and still finished with insane numbers. Playing next to Marshall also helps. Plus, Trestman’s system seems to fit the Bears offense perfectly. Unlike Romo, if Cutler does go down, I think whoever wins the backup job will fill in well, as evidenced by journeyman, McCown’s performance last season.
Assuming I don’t get a top-3 pick, I’d like to come away with either two WRs from Tier 1, or Graham and one WR from Tier 1.
Tier 2
[TABLE="width: 108"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Nelson9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Brown12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jeffery9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ju Jones*9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cobb*9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thomas (TE)4
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
I usually don’t like making small tiers. It puts a lot of pressure on these guys to deliver, and it’s not good to isolate just a few players in the draft. But I see a fairly large jump in risk/reward with this tier. This is the near-elite tier. These are WR1’s in PPR leagues, but they offer more risk than the Tier 1 WRs. For Julio, it’s all about health. If he plays 16 games, he’s a Tier 1 guy. The problem is that he’s never done it before. Same for Nelson and Cobb – both are coming off injuries. But with James Jones gone, they both have immense potential in this offense. Brown still seems underrated. He might not have as high of a ceiling as the Tier 1 guys because his TD potential isn’t as high, but he is a 100+ catch threat in this offense. That makes him even more valuable in PPR. He’s still only 26, so he might not have reached his full potential. 8 TD’s might not be his cap.
I’m targeting these guys in the 3rd or 4th round as my WR2 or Flex option.
*A quick note. There is a chance to come away with Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, and Alshon Jeffery in the first three rounds, according to some sites’ ADP numbers. Those are 3 impact players who can dominate weeks, especially in PPR. I rather start my team with those 3 players as opposed to taking a risk on a RB.
Tier 3
[TABLE="width: 108"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Cruz*8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Patterson10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Floyd4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]K Allen10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G Tate9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fitz4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]V Jax7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Harvin4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Crabtree*8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sanders4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colston*6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wright9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Garcon10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wallace5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]White*9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Johnson10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cameron (TE)4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]T Williams11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gronk (TE)*
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Anyone in this tier could finish in the top-10 at the position in a PPR league. But they all have at least one question mark that keeps them out of Tier 2. I hope that a few of them bump up to Tier 2 once training camp gets underway. For now, I’d feel much better if these guys were my FLEX or bench option.
Is Keenan Allen for real? That’s the only thing keeping him out of Tier 2. He has 100 catch potential in this offense, so he could still pull WR1 numbers in PPR even if the TD’s aren’t there. There simply aren’t too many other good WR’s for Rivers to throw to.
I’m very high on Golden Tate in this offense playing opposite Calvin Johnson, discussed in another thread. Cruz should bounce back, as he will likely play more in the slot this year. In my opinion, a more natural position for him. He has 90+ catch potential, especially if the Giants younger guys don’t pan out. Eli will look early and often to Cruz. Floyd is in line for a big year. I see him matching, if not surpassing Fitz’s numbers this year. He’s also entering his prized 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] year in the league. Palmer had a decent 2013, and I expect this offense to be better in Arians’ downfield system. Floyd is a perfect fit for the system.
Garcon won’t catch 100+ balls this year with the addition of Jackson and a full season of Reed (assuming health). I still think he and RG3 have a good rapport, and Garcon should produce decent numbers in a more passing friendly system.
V Jax has been extremely consistent in his career, but I’m not sure how he will gel with McCown. It’s keeping him off Tier 2, for now. But he could bump up if camp reports are positive. Tampa seems to have the big targets like McCown had in Chicago, but the WRs in Chicago are better and Trestman isn’t coaching Tampa. Lovie Smith prefers to rely more on the run game.
I’m tempering my expectations for Patterson. For me, he should be drafted as more of a FLEX option. He’s got sky high potential, but I’m not sure what to expect from this Vikings offense, likely going with rookie Bridgewater at QB. I still expect the Vikings to be run heavy and rely on shorter passes, while incorporating the TE. Patterson is becoming too popular of a breakout and might end up being over-drafted.
I’m high on the Atlanta pass game this season. The lack of running game and no TE should allow the WR’s plenty of opportunity for major stats. But White will turn 33 in November and history suggests WRs drop in production at age 33. I’d rather grab a younger guy with potential.
Wright’s upward trend in production combined with the fact that he is entering his 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] season has me intrigued. He has 90+ catch potential if Locker can stay healthy. Even if Locker goes down, he should remain a nice security blanket underneath for whoever the backup is (Whitehurst?). 90 catches with a modest bump to 14 YPC puts Wright at nearly 1300 yards. Pending his TD total, he could be a poor man’s Antonio Brown. He’s being drafted in round 7.
Sanders’ production might depend on the health of Welker. Welker is 33 and his concussion history is well-documented. The fact that I have Sanders in this tier and not Welker shows how much confidence I have in Welker this season. I’d love to see Sanders in the slot with Dem Thomas and Latimer on the outside. With a healthy Welker, Sanders is the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] option in the offense and his production is probably capped at FLEX stats.
Terrence Williams has a lot of potential as the clear cut #2 WR in the Dallas system. He should see plenty of single coverage next to Dez. He’ll be the third option in the pass game, but Dallas should throw a ton in a new pass happy system. Can Romo stay healthy? If not, Williams could be a major bust. Randle is in a very similar situation as Williams. He’s entering the year as the #2 WR in what should be a more pass happy offense. But his production will be dependent upon Eli bouncing back. He should with better O-line play. For me, Randle passed the eye test. He’s made plays similar to what I’ve seen from guys like AJ Green and Alshon Jeffery. Randle’s problem last year was more mental. He consistently ran bad routes, which led to a lot of interceptions for Eli. Randle is a big risk/reward play because you’re gambling that this 23 year old can learn the playbook. But he’s an ideal WR4 after you draft your core starters.
Tier 4
[TABLE="width: 94"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 94"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 107"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Hunter9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cooks6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hilton10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]T Smith11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D Jackson10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Edelman10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Randle8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ertz (TE)7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Reed (TE)10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]K Benjamin12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rudolph(TE)10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Decker11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bowe6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wheaton12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Boykin9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maclin*7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Douglas9[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
This tier consists of FLEX options who have the potential to produce like WR2’s.
Marvin Jones had 10 TD’s last year. You can call it a fluke, but a guy who scores double digit TD’s in his second year as a WR in the NFL deserves attention. He’s getting none. Jones will enter a big 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] year. He should be the clear cut #2 WR next to AJ Green. That helps a lot. Cinncy will likely run more this year, and Jones probably won’t get 10 TD’s again. But his targets should increase, as Sanu gets weeded out of the offense. A 75-1000-7 season is not out of the question for Jones. Those are WR2 fantasy numbers. He’s going in the 11[SUP]th[/SUP] round.
Temper expectations on all of the rookie WR’s based on past history, but there have been some outliers. Cooks fits that bill. He has Drew Brees at QB, a great offensive mind in Peyton, and he doesn’t need to be the #1 option in this offense. Sproles is gone, and Cooks will fill that slot role. Colston is getting up there in years, and there is a serious chance Cooks becomes the second option in one of the best passing offenses in the NFL.
I want to put Torrey Smith higher. He’s still young enough to where his stats can improve, but I think so many things cap his value this year: Flacco is a mediocre QB, Kubiak likes to pound the ball and utilize the TE, the Ravens signed Daniels and will play in a lot of 2 TE sets. Smith still has the potential to break out, but the guys in Tier 2 are in better situations.
Hilton and Nicks should/could be higher, and they could eventually rise up the board. Luck has all the options in the pass game to have a lot of success this year. Will Pep Hamilton open up the offense? We don’t know yet. I’m not sure how Wayne rebounds off an ACL injury at age 35, so the opportunity is there for Hilton and Nicks if Luck becomes a top-5 QB. It will happen, it’s just a matter of when.
Hopkins is another guy I wish I could put higher. I don’t expect Andre Johnson to play a full year…either holding out or getting injured. He’s also 33 years old. But the Texans pass game has serious question marks, and will likely be a run first offense. If Andre Johnson somehow gets traded, however, Hopkins moves to Tier 3 based on the opportunity. Hunter’s situation is similar to Hopkins. If Locker can play a full year, Hunter will have value this year. But if Locker gets injured, Hunter’s value will be capped by bad QB play. Also, the Titans will likely try to rely on the run game more this year. Hunter is the #2 WR behind Kendall Wright, but he still has serious upside and is deserving of a late round pick.
Tier 5
[TABLE="width: 107"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Hopkins10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Latimer4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]M Brown11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Evans7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Watkins9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Britt4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matthews7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Austin4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kearse4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Adams9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sanu4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stills6[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
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