2008 cfb -- time to post my week 9 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
toledo at home , plays good every other week , usually better vs the better competition and worse vs the worse competition. cmu off an emotional win and status of lefevour.
no opinion from me.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Thanks J . I read ALOT and quickly but retain a ton of info . Sort of struggle having ADD but it also helps when something has my interest and my memory is basically photographic . So when I can get into something(rare) I can get alot of research done but really talking maybe 2-3 hours of research a day 5 days as week. Sure alot more time spent by others its replaced the morning paper so to speak. Takes more time to type it then anything else as I have alot of lightbulb moments when I see things in text and ramble like here. I am definetly lucky in some ways but its also a curse when your mind doesnt relax for 5 seconds in a given day and you probably get lost in thought more times then most people spend thinking . Not to mention you cant function anymore and most of the focus you have is thanks to a pill .
Funny you mentioned it today but I kinda watched a few minutes of the show MONK today and would have to say that I hate to say that I am alot like him but watered down ( he comes of way to soft whatever irrational shit runs through my head I just keep it to my self and dont freak out about thoughts that I know are irrational...). Definetly much better social skills then he has as well . The point is with all his issues he is extremely perceptive and able to see what others wouldnt imagine and thats me. I can just read something and get the same jist as someone who watched a game .
I am very happy though you agree . Makes me feel like a very wise man . Especially knowing how much I like GT this week. Alot of the good that comes from betting is a game I am involved in teaches me so much and retain that going forward and build off it . Betting is somehow like a second nature to me at this point while confidence and conviction in my thoughts is one of my biggest hurdles . I can rationalize something and then sucumb to the paranoid thoughts of what I may be overlooking . We all have flaws .
You would be suprised at how little I watch sports these days . 10 minutes here and there just to get a feel of teams and players . I watch at most 6-7 football games a week bewteen CFB and NFL if I added the quarters of each up . Same with all sports . I dont know why exactly but probably alot to do with my ADD keeping my attention relatively short. I appear to know alot because I just rarely forget anything more then studying things and having true expert knowledge like most of you guys do of the teams you follow.
I have come to realize I am weird dude in alot of ways . Which I would never say dude other then typing it ....I opened the temple discussion thread and didnt even look at a game log for either havent watched either play all year and just blurted out line will be -4 . I have no idea why that was the number that popped into my head but it did and it was -4. Freaky and happens alot . I hit some crazy props like that just reading names and when a certain name comes up its like a silent bingo .....( WS MVP Willie Aybar +1700 or Upton +750 just what jumped out to me if anyone cares probably wrong but 25$ on Aybar gets $425 )
Another angle is when I read your guys posts and opinions it always teaches me something .......
:shake:
To be as HONEST as I can be I would value JGalt's opinion alot more then mine . In all seriousness I feel like I am the good athlete who has instincts he cant explain or teach but succeeds in his sport . In essence why alot of good ballplayers never become coaches . I cant make sense or explain alot of things I see or feel correct about . So I dont try to convince anyone of anything rather then just explain my thoughts nowadays . Sometimes in that process a game becomes even more obvious to me( GTech for one and usually the more it makes the sense the more I talk about it like say TCU last week ). I just understand how markets work (sports betting is a market IMO like everyother) and how things occur in markets. On the flip is I really dont wont to post plays and worry about units and such for concern of just being sloppy and not conveying the right message then having someone lose money on it . Plus I am indecisive and procrastinate alot again thanks to having A.D.D .
For me its just 1 game to someone else it could be more ...
For me its just 1 game to someone else it could be more ...
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f37620">Sports Betting Marketplace </TD></TR><TR><TD><SCRIPT type=text/javascript>var initialClientId = '';var _currentSportId = 1;var _holdSportId = 1;var _activeTab = null; var prm = Sys.WebForms.PageRequestManager.getInstance(); prm.add_endRequest(EndRequest); function EndRequest(sender,args) { tabRow = null; var sportId=_currentSportId; _currentSportId = _holdSportId; if (_activeTab) ShowOdds(_activeTab, sportId); }</SCRIPT><STYLE type=text/css> #grid table td div { margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: none; white-space: nowrap; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Tahoma,Arial, sans serif; overflow: hidden; line-height: 10pt; }</STYLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=0% border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-BOTTOM: darkgray 1px solid"> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: darkgray 1px solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 12px; PADDING-LEFT: 12px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 12px; BORDER-LEFT: darkgray 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 12px; BORDER-BOTTOM: darkgray 1px solid">
<TABLE><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR class=HeadOrangeTop id=header><TD id=info_header width=40>
</TD><TD id=score_header width=50>
</TD><TD id=team_header width=135>
</TD><TD id=bets_header width=45>
</TD><TD id=mlpct_header style="PADDING-RIGHT: 16px; PADDING-LEFT: 16px; WIDTH: 160px" colSpan=4>Market
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=60> Open
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=60>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=60>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=60>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=60>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=85>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=60>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=60>
</TD></TR><TR class=HeadOrange id=header><TD id=info_header width=40>Info
</TD><TD id=score_header width=50>Time
</TD><TD id=team_header width=135>Team
</TD><TD id=bets_header width=45># Bets
</TD><TD id=spreadpct_header width=40>Spread
</TD><TD id=mlpct_header width=40>ML
</TD><TD id=parlaypct_header width=40>Parlay
</TD><TD id=oupct_header width=40>OU
</TD><TD width=60>Pinnacle
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh2 onclick=HighlightColumn(this,2); width=60>Pinnacle
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh9 onclick=HighlightColumn(this,9); width=60>CRIS
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh18 onclick=HighlightColumn(this,18); width=60>Olympic
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh13 onclick=HighlightColumn(this,13); width=60>BetUS
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh21 onclick=HighlightColumn(this,21); width=85>Matchbook
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh12 onclick=HighlightColumn(this,12); width=60>SIA
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh20 onclick=HighlightColumn(this,20); width=60>Bodog
</TD></TR><TR id=e142965 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e142965', event)"><TD id=info style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=40>
</TD><TD id=score width=50>10/25
3:30P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>153 Virginia
154 Georgia Tech
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>1204
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>42%
58%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>n/a
n/a
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>56%
44%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>n/a
n/a
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=60>
-13-105
</TD><TD class=open id=sb2 width=60>
-11.5-112
</TD><TD class=open id=sb9 width=60>37 -110
-12-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb18 width=60>37.5 -110
-11.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb13 width=60>37.5 -110
-11.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb21 width=85>
-12-106/-101
</TD><TD class=open id=sb12 width=60>
-11.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb20 width=60>
-11.5-110
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Thanks Pags. I am sure in our own ways we both like knowing we are not alone in a sense . Cause I do enjoy the discussions here and alot of time find myself dumbing down conversations in real life because most people dont get it , whether its talking about my how fucked up my brain is (A.D.D is only a part of the story) or trying to have an intelligent discussion .
Today great example I got aggitated (aggitated is an understatement) playing basketball tonight( rec league game) and well that was about 9 PM and its after 4 AM here in NY and well I still cant relax or calm down . So I am still awake when I should have been sleeping along time ago but I am gonna try now and get some . So talk to you tmrw at hopefully a more decent time for me . :cheers:
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Now that is a name I haven't heard for a really long time.
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
115 posts..
:shake:
:shake:
nawlins51
I bet Basketball
GL VK. I will be on Auburn with you buddy.As for Iowa you know I love them. Just got scared off because of that old fool who everybody worships. I will post my leans shortly. Not many at all buddy.Tough card imo. Lots of games with no value. This is usually the time of year where everybodys card should be small. Linesmakers adjust making it tough to find any value. By the way got my power ranking stuff together.
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
VK - Excellent thoughts on the Oregon game. Its one on my radar right now but since I have to go on the road and lay points here, I wanted to wait and see how the QB situation looked as we got closer to gametime and all I am able to find right now is this:
If they are going to use 2 QB's thats fine with me, obviously Masoli is the one with the healthy legs and has had success on the ground this year using his legs. I think Oregon pulls away in the 2nd half.
Few comments here. I think when Jamon Meredith got injured, it was all downhill from there for the OL. With Batchelor suspended for the game, the 2 guards were basically backups and that isn't going to do it against LSU. I believe the turning point though was when Garcia fumbles in the 3rd quarter. SC was in LSU territory with a 7 point lead and even if they get 3 on that drive to go up 10, they would be in good position. LSU didn't score on the possession following the fumble recovery but they did punt and lock South Carolina deep in their own territory for the rest of the game. I think they tried to let Garcia do too much in his first start, eventually he will be able to but after LSU started to bring heavy pressure it was really over for him. He has a bright future though and SC actually has a QB with some talent, hopefully he doesn't get kicked off the team this winter.
If they are going to use 2 QB's thats fine with me, obviously Masoli is the one with the healthy legs and has had success on the ground this year using his legs. I think Oregon pulls away in the 2nd half.
Few comments here. I think when Jamon Meredith got injured, it was all downhill from there for the OL. With Batchelor suspended for the game, the 2 guards were basically backups and that isn't going to do it against LSU. I believe the turning point though was when Garcia fumbles in the 3rd quarter. SC was in LSU territory with a 7 point lead and even if they get 3 on that drive to go up 10, they would be in good position. LSU didn't score on the possession following the fumble recovery but they did punt and lock South Carolina deep in their own territory for the rest of the game. I think they tried to let Garcia do too much in his first start, eventually he will be able to but after LSU started to bring heavy pressure it was really over for him. He has a bright future though and SC actually has a QB with some talent, hopefully he doesn't get kicked off the team this winter.
G
Gyno
Guest
GL Kyle
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left></TD><TD>
</TD><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>24</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>9-18</TD><TD>5-8</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>0-0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>260</TD><TD>445</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>111</TD><TD>174</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>13-21</TD><TD>13-21</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>5.3</TD><TD>8.3</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>149</TD><TD>271</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>35</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>3.3</TD><TD>7.7</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>5-49</TD><TD>1-7</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>35:20</TD><TD>24:40</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
complete domination by west virginia. They looked like one of the best offenses in the country tonight. Auburn looked disinterested in tackling. Execution edge went to stewart as his guys did not commit a single offensive or defensive penalty with an SEC crew. Their lone penalty was a block in the back on a kick return and the refs huddled a long time on that one too.
Basically just thought auburn could tackle and they did not. Also expected auburn to load up and stop the run and they never forced wvu to throw. Had stewart not decided to throw it for no reason this game would have been even a bigger whooping than it was.
No way to sugar coat it , was lucky to have a shot in the fourth quarter in this one.
Second consecutive game where i had an SEC team getting points with a 7 point lead get shut out in the second half.
When you completely misjudge two teams involved in the same game , you have to be willing to stand up and say ...." hey , i got this one wrong." ...happens more than 4 out of ten times.
Benefited from a couple of nice returns , some key turnovers and about as good a thrid down conversion rate as i could have wanted in the first half and still did not cover.
wrong side. unfortunate since this was my favorite game on the card and one i have had circled for awhile.
Pat White and Noel Devine had good games and the offensive line made Auburn look like little girls. Exact opposite of what i envisioned.
no regrets on the bet as fundamentals made this an easy bet to make. i would not play it again knowing what i know now however.
Hopefully saturday is better.
</TD><TD>9-18</TD><TD>5-8</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>0-0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>260</TD><TD>445</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>111</TD><TD>174</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>13-21</TD><TD>13-21</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>5.3</TD><TD>8.3</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>149</TD><TD>271</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>35</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>3.3</TD><TD>7.7</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>5-49</TD><TD>1-7</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>35:20</TD><TD>24:40</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
complete domination by west virginia. They looked like one of the best offenses in the country tonight. Auburn looked disinterested in tackling. Execution edge went to stewart as his guys did not commit a single offensive or defensive penalty with an SEC crew. Their lone penalty was a block in the back on a kick return and the refs huddled a long time on that one too.
Basically just thought auburn could tackle and they did not. Also expected auburn to load up and stop the run and they never forced wvu to throw. Had stewart not decided to throw it for no reason this game would have been even a bigger whooping than it was.
No way to sugar coat it , was lucky to have a shot in the fourth quarter in this one.
Second consecutive game where i had an SEC team getting points with a 7 point lead get shut out in the second half.
When you completely misjudge two teams involved in the same game , you have to be willing to stand up and say ...." hey , i got this one wrong." ...happens more than 4 out of ten times.
Benefited from a couple of nice returns , some key turnovers and about as good a thrid down conversion rate as i could have wanted in the first half and still did not cover.
wrong side. unfortunate since this was my favorite game on the card and one i have had circled for awhile.
Pat White and Noel Devine had good games and the offensive line made Auburn look like little girls. Exact opposite of what i envisioned.
no regrets on the bet as fundamentals made this an easy bet to make. i would not play it again knowing what i know now however.
Hopefully saturday is better.
hoopsstar22
Captain of Vanzack's yacht
Another tough one to swallow.
This weekend will decide whether I shut it down on the college game for the year.
Not interested in putting in the hours to continue getting my ass handed to me or just breaking even week after week. Some how some solid results have come from the NFL, and I still find myself with exactly what I started with 9 weeks ago.
Good luck as we move forward VK.
This weekend will decide whether I shut it down on the college game for the year.
Not interested in putting in the hours to continue getting my ass handed to me or just breaking even week after week. Some how some solid results have come from the NFL, and I still find myself with exactly what I started with 9 weeks ago.
Good luck as we move forward VK.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
looked good early but auburn defense never showed up. A really bad tackling effort.
Hang in there and keep plugging away. You work too hard for results to not follow suit bud.:cheers:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Yeah , tough in that i just miscapped the game....... More angry over what i let happen to me in the kent st line that i was asking your opinion about earlier in the week. Sigh. Can't play it now.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Eliminated kent st and sjsu today.
kent st --- yeah ... i like it more than i did a few days ago but the line is not 8 anymore its 5.5. roflmao ... no way i can bet with that kind of lost value. another example of bad work by me. kind of a schizo week for me regarding numbers.
sjsu -- same type of deal. didnt bet fast enough and screwed myself. There is a chance the late money is on boise in which case i can revisit. but at 7 , i am not playing it.
leaves me with ncstate at +12 and tulane -2.5 as the only two remaining possible bets.
ncstate is going to be tough for me to bet as it will lock up two units in one game and i despise doing that. if i miscap that game as badly as auburn/wvu i lose too much in one spot. just not a fan of it in cfb although it is correlated to the under bet i made. keep it around and maybe see a big move on marlyand that i can get a 13.5 or a 14. doubt i play otherwise though not sure.
tulane -- hoping it hits 3 everywhere so i can price myself out again. Anyone have sportsinsight numbers on that one ?? rice has been taking a lot of money and want to see if that trend is continuing this week while the line moves higher.
kent st --- yeah ... i like it more than i did a few days ago but the line is not 8 anymore its 5.5. roflmao ... no way i can bet with that kind of lost value. another example of bad work by me. kind of a schizo week for me regarding numbers.
sjsu -- same type of deal. didnt bet fast enough and screwed myself. There is a chance the late money is on boise in which case i can revisit. but at 7 , i am not playing it.
leaves me with ncstate at +12 and tulane -2.5 as the only two remaining possible bets.
ncstate is going to be tough for me to bet as it will lock up two units in one game and i despise doing that. if i miscap that game as badly as auburn/wvu i lose too much in one spot. just not a fan of it in cfb although it is correlated to the under bet i made. keep it around and maybe see a big move on marlyand that i can get a 13.5 or a 14. doubt i play otherwise though not sure.
tulane -- hoping it hits 3 everywhere so i can price myself out again. Anyone have sportsinsight numbers on that one ?? rice has been taking a lot of money and want to see if that trend is continuing this week while the line moves higher.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
first i apologize to anyone who took the time this week to post in my thread that i have not responded to. I try my best but sometimes i miss someone or get focused somewhere else.
Doing this a day earlier than normal but want to show how i did with numbers for this saturday .... some are good .. some are bad. but overall not bad work at all. Not sure how much time i will have for the thread tomorrow so wanted to get this in.
ncstate/maryland under 46.5 ..... currently 44.5 ...... + 2 points of the line
nw/indiana over 49 .................currently 51.5 ......... +2.5 points of the line
georgia/lsu under 48.5 .............currently 48.5 ............ even with the line
michst/mich under 46 ..............currently 45 ............... + 1 point of the line
pennst/tosu under 46 ..............currently 46 ...............even with line ( how is this not dropping ? )
nebraska -10 ..........................currently -12.5 ............+ 2.5 of the line
virginia +11.5 ..........................currently +14
...............-2.5 of the line
missouri -19
........................currently -25 ................... +6 points of the line
cincy +1 ................................currently -2.5 ................... +3.5 of the line
oregon -4 ...............................currently -3 ...................... - 1 point of the line
guess i cant hate myself over the virginia debacle too much in relation to the other work.
Doing this a day earlier than normal but want to show how i did with numbers for this saturday .... some are good .. some are bad. but overall not bad work at all. Not sure how much time i will have for the thread tomorrow so wanted to get this in.
ncstate/maryland under 46.5 ..... currently 44.5 ...... + 2 points of the line
nw/indiana over 49 .................currently 51.5 ......... +2.5 points of the line
georgia/lsu under 48.5 .............currently 48.5 ............ even with the line
michst/mich under 46 ..............currently 45 ............... + 1 point of the line
pennst/tosu under 46 ..............currently 46 ...............even with line ( how is this not dropping ? )
nebraska -10 ..........................currently -12.5 ............+ 2.5 of the line
virginia +11.5 ..........................currently +14
...............-2.5 of the linemissouri -19
........................currently -25 ................... +6 points of the linecincy +1 ................................currently -2.5 ................... +3.5 of the line
oregon -4 ...............................currently -3 ...................... - 1 point of the line
guess i cant hate myself over the virginia debacle too much in relation to the other work.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Make my day and play Wyoming.
When i do , put me on immediate suicide watch.
it looks like every other wyoming game .. they should cover on paper but will they on game day ?
i am not backing those moneyburner teams anymore if i can avoid it. Though i did play auburn tonight and they are no ATS gem.
no idaho. no wash st. no wyoming. no sdsu. no arizona st.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
sell me on the ducks, VK. shake:, cuz i know u like that emoticon so much)
i see 2 teams getting healthy off their bye weeks. i see reverse line movement that points to the home dog. i also see the ducks being able to have a ton of success running the ball on asu...and conversely, asu being able to have a ton of success thru the air on oregon. but whether i'm looking at common opponents, team strengths/weaknesses, the history of this matchup, etc...i simply can't figure the game out...other than it being pretty much a coin flip. so what am i missing?
shake:, cuz i know u like that emoticon so much)i see 2 teams getting healthy off their bye weeks. i see reverse line movement that points to the home dog. i also see the ducks being able to have a ton of success running the ball on asu...and conversely, asu being able to have a ton of success thru the air on oregon. but whether i'm looking at common opponents, team strengths/weaknesses, the history of this matchup, etc...i simply can't figure the game out...other than it being pretty much a coin flip. so what am i missing?
worst part about this game is that I had a board meeting to go to tonight and I got to watch the first quarter...as I continually got text message updates I got sicker and sicker...now I get to go back and watch this thing on tivo...oh well, I'm done with Auburn for the rest of the year, that I can promise you...GL the rest of the weekend kyle...
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
kyle, what did you want in sjsu, the hook? i only saw it at 7.5 very briefly. obviously you're still getting a key number here, so what else makes you weary of betting them?...i think this is about as good of a spot there is...
with ya on cinci and agree with oregon...a few nice lookin totals as well. hope you're right on that bucks/psu under because that's their best chance to win imo
with ya on cinci and agree with oregon...a few nice lookin totals as well. hope you're right on that bucks/psu under because that's their best chance to win imo
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
sell me on the ducks, VK.
i see 2 teams getting healthy off their bye weeks. i see reverse line movement that points to the home dog. i also see the ducks being able to have a ton of success running the ball on asu...and conversely, asu being able to have a ton of success thru the air on oregon. but whether i'm looking at common opponents, team strengths/weaknesses, the history of this matchup, etc...i simply can't figure the game out...other than it being pretty much a coin flip. so what am i missing?
really just see a tale of two teams right now. One team has been written off too early ( oregon ) and one team continually gets too much respect ( arizona state ). Oregon should control both lines of scrimmage. ASU -line keeps giving up sacks and oregon d-line is one of the top sack units in the country. So I think asu has to throw to succeed and while they can have some success at that , it should also lead to some negative plays via sacks or interceptions. Carpenter is still nursing that ankle injury which will not only hurt the zip he puts on the ball but will make it harder for him to avoid the rush. Statue type qb is a target point rush and that just makes it easier on the ducks defense. I also think the motivational angles point to oregon.
The reverse line move is a concern as it probably points to big money on the sun devils side. I have to trust myself though.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
It won't be a fun watch.
Auburn looked like a conference USA team trying to tackle devine in that game. Different wvu offense and a different auburn defense from what he have seen all year showed up in this game.
Fundamentally a good bet going in but wvu dominated.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
One thing that makes me scared of this bet is my history of betting against boise st on espn and midweek games. They always seem to win and cover even when i feel i am getting line value. Granted some of that is because they are usually at home in those situations but it is a concern for me. Yes i want a minimum of the hook before i bet the game. It was theer for the taking sunday. Another thing that is bothering me is that i just struggle to win a weekday game for whatever reason. My record in these games is horrendous the last few years ( especially big east games last year ).
Fundamentally i really like sjsu here. i feel they are underrated , play tough defense at home and have some solid skill guys at qb rb and wr. I also think that boise is overrated but as i said before , i always think that boise is overrated and it always burns me. I think sjsu can have success stopping the boise rushing game and i dont think moore has been put into the position where he is the focal point of what they will need to win. Tough spot for a frosh.
Every sharp in the land seems to be on sjsu and i can see why.
might revisit but likely not betting.
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
:shake:
fair enough. fyi, bodog has +7.5 at -115. i know many people hate this book for various reasons, but i keep it around because they often shade to overs and favorites, a lot of times giving me an extra half point or some favorable plus juice...figured i'd let you know. gl tomorrow
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
This was partially my fault as I couldn't get to my explanation until the line had went to 7.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
This did open very briefly at 8/8.5 - I forget which.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
it wont last for you at bodog.
after awhile when every bet i made there was an under or a dog they started giving me different lines than the posted line. one of those types of books. i no longer use them and its been a couple years.
have fun while it lasts.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
not your fault at all.
i was slow as it was one that i thought it was off sunday but wanted to look at more. then line started moving down and i didnt act. Saw it on your plays list and asked but failed to notice it hit 7.5 which would have made it decision time one way or the other.
0% your fault , 100% my fault.
Even have weather issues popping up there.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
GL the rest of the weekend .
I jumped on SJ ST but now rethinking it some . Big scheme I see SJ as only slightly better then Hawaii at this point . They won at Hawaii but shouldnt have and Hawaii was closer then it probably should have been @ Boise State .
Think Boise between -7 and -9.5 is correct so thinking about maybe Boise 1st H or just getting out of the original play and pay for -6.5 and hope for a middle or just eat the juice which is small for me .
Boise is not impressive but neither is the SJ offense . Which faces a tough Boise defense and could see a non cover for SJ through trouble scoring ....
I jumped on SJ ST but now rethinking it some . Big scheme I see SJ as only slightly better then Hawaii at this point . They won at Hawaii but shouldnt have and Hawaii was closer then it probably should have been @ Boise State .
Think Boise between -7 and -9.5 is correct so thinking about maybe Boise 1st H or just getting out of the original play and pay for -6.5 and hope for a middle or just eat the juice which is small for me .
Boise is not impressive but neither is the SJ offense . Which faces a tough Boise defense and could see a non cover for SJ through trouble scoring ....
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
i only use them for probably about 10-15% of my wagers..maybe less....only when the number is better; my primary book is greek, but i've had them as a secondary book for years, and yes i have heard that plenty and it's happened to me, where i will view the line, place bet, and when i get logged in it will actually move or juice up on me...actually happened more than half the time for about 6 mos, but hasn't happened consistently in a long time -- maybe because i simply didn't bet the number when it got worse. if the software is that sophisticated that it can read when people aren't buying its bullshit, i don't know...but it sure seems like it. this was probably about 2 years ago or so...one of the books i worry the least about when being able to deposit funds after the law change, because they've always been proactive and consistent in finding new methods and explaining them well. i don't know, i like their customer service and have never had even a small payout problem with them (or thegreek), so those two are the only ones i've stayed with over the years. i've been with all of the rest besides bookmaker and have been disappointed somehwere down the line. heard a lot of bad stuff about them profiling, but if they're not giving you the number you want, don't bet it... i think they appeal more to beginning bettors with their parlay odds, advertising, and nice interface (that's what got me a long time ago) and thus need to even out some of the "square" action, resulting in more line value. i guess it serves a purpose or a function, just like some other books do...i used to keep money in about 8-10 different ones at one time, but that got to be a cumbersome pain in the ass. my .02
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
nope. i hit totals slightly worse in baseball and football compared to my sides.
Having a strange year where i am doing worse than normal on sides and better than normal on totals.
in the long run both should move towards their true percent.
hope to keep the totals run alive .. been pretty amazing if you combine it with what happened in posted baseball plays this year. hehe.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
no it is invaluable as long as it is good. But when you keep getting a different line than what they are putting out to the everyone else it gets frustrating. some other books do that too...... enjoy your advantage there .. i dont have it anymore.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Eliminated my last two leans of tulane and ncstate
Really a little worried that i did not see the card well this week. i liked Auburn as the best bet on the board and they were dominated. I really liked SJSU and it was as close to being a play as can be before i eliminated... wanted an 8 to play it and thank god it never came for me .... and they were dominated far worse than the score indicated. Just not a good sign heading into the weekend so i am not going to add any more to the card. tulane is the one i really like at this point between the two as i already have investment in the total of the ncstate game. just the same they were both eliminated.
Also , i edited my original post despite the fact that the auburn game had already been played. i try not to edit post plays after the first kickoff for transparency but i forgot this week. one game was played .. auburn and it lost. pretty sure every person who reads my thread can attest to no alterations to my plays at all but just being clear.
gl this weekend everyone
Really a little worried that i did not see the card well this week. i liked Auburn as the best bet on the board and they were dominated. I really liked SJSU and it was as close to being a play as can be before i eliminated... wanted an 8 to play it and thank god it never came for me .... and they were dominated far worse than the score indicated. Just not a good sign heading into the weekend so i am not going to add any more to the card. tulane is the one i really like at this point between the two as i already have investment in the total of the ncstate game. just the same they were both eliminated.
Also , i edited my original post despite the fact that the auburn game had already been played. i try not to edit post plays after the first kickoff for transparency but i forgot this week. one game was played .. auburn and it lost. pretty sure every person who reads my thread can attest to no alterations to my plays at all but just being clear.
gl this weekend everyone
