Good stuff VK . As usually we basically agree with slight variations .
1) Duke @ UVA - Agree here again though its clearly tough for you to expect that , I suppose given the late night back and forth on a message board . UVA played well @ Duke but again the ultimate problem was failure to make plays . The game got away from them in the 2nd H . UVA had Duke on teh ropes a tad in teh 1st H but Duke finally got it together before half . Remember because I had Duke -6 that day and UVA impressed with there effort leading me to believe they were about turn things around . I dont think there is much difference bewteen the two teams at this point . I would probably make Duke -1/ -1.5 on a neutral field and somewhere in the -4 to -6 range probably closer to -4 now because Peerman did not play if I am correct . So remember Duke was winless in what 25 ACC games before the UVA win just to equate what type of team UVA is NOW . They have improved but still are an ACC bottomfeeder is my point . Duke has played a fairly tough schedule as well and in that tough schedule they were only +3 at home vs Miami and +13 @ GT while being favored vs Navy . Its quite the difference from being +13 , +6.5 and +4 at home to teams who are Weaker then Miami U and GT . I think thats lost in your analysis and something I rely heavily on in all sports . What does a line say to me or what does it imply about the teams playing? How did the game line up situationally and how was viewed by the betting public ( Not in terms of percentage's but rather how did they view the line more so). What happened to produce the outcome that day when they played. So while Duke hasnt looked good past 2 weeks there opponents have to be accounted for as well as how they were lined .
As for as the GT game vs Duke we have to account for the fact they had a freshman QB making his 1st start . So how does a backup QB equate into the outcome . One would have to believe the offense runs smoother with its starting QB and that could have led to the 1st Q miscues which as the game wore on they corrected . Also the line had to be discounted some for that . So its not black and white IMO ..
2) the Yds PPL and 1st downs can be a good indicator but you also have to relate situational analysis into it . What type of field position did they have ? Poor starting field position with alot of 1st downs can be good because it showed they could sustain drives or it could show while they moved the ball at crucial times it failed to make that key play to extend the drive . Where as team could have good starting field position and be limited in the amount of 1st downs they can have especially if they had big plays or quick scores . Further if there was a big lead the 1st downs could still be exaggerated in the sense they picked up some meaningless ones late . With yards PPL I am not an average guy . I hate the word acg actually I prefer to look more for the "Mean" number . The number that seems to continualyy pop up . Does a guy get 6 YPC because he was getting 3 and 4 then had 1 or 2 big runs to skew the avg yardage Or did he really get 5,6,7,8yds a clip and have a legitimate good day Or did they get 5,6,7 yds a clip and then see its watered down because they just ran the ball late to kill clock and he picked up 2 or 3 yds a clip .......stats are very easy to manipulate . So while they are good indicators the raw avgs of them doesnt really equate to anything specific IMO . It has to be broken down . Obviously the same for QBs as well ....thats why DRIVE LOGS real important to look at . See what type of situations the teams were in . Where they good on 3 rd down because they kept it 3rd and 2 all day or poor becuase they were 3rd and 8 all day ....
3) Good point about Peerman's ball security but again if he cant run the ball and he struggled vs a decent UNC unit that puts more pressure on Verica to make plays or feel like he needs to . Which is tougher on the road then at home to do . So bad sign the running game struggled and tends to be a bad indictor to have a struggling run game when you have a young QB on the road . Those 3rd and 6's are tough to pick up when its obvious you are passing ...I disagree strongly with thinking UVA gets to 17 in a competive game . They had 3 all game at home vs UNC , the week before they got 2 big runs by Peerman in a short span to give them a quick 14 pts but skew the scoreboard . As for GT there is no doubt they break 20 IMO its do they break 30-35 IMO?
4) As for Clemson being 17 vs UVA no doubt in mind they are . Wouldnt make CLemson a good bet because they issues but from expecting what would a line would be no doubt IMO they are right around that . One week Maryland steals the game late @ Clemson as 11 pt dogs the next week Maryland goes to UVA as 13 pt favs . Thats a tremendous GAP in spreads . Now obviously the line @ Clemson was a tad hgh biut not by much they just allowed Maryland to hang around while I cant see Maryland going to UVA tmrw and being any lower then -4.5 but would expect closer to a TD . So UVA is gonna easily be 2 TDs @ Maryland as well IMO if they played tmrw ...
5) Yes GT has been mistake prone but at what point do we overlook the Qb situation and defenses they played against ? They played @ Clemson , @ Vtech and @ BC winning 2 of 3 . Those are all very good defenses . So at what point do we credit the opposing defense for some GTech's offensive mistakes along with the Qb situation . Nesbitt was out for awhile and has to return @ CLemson not that easy . If Duke is the worst defense it played then the Blue Devils defense has hung tough vs a pretty solid schedule . Throw in Miss State's defense and there hasnt been a bad defense in the bunch yet . Would say UVA's defense is about the same quality as Duke's. Probably better but hard to know looking at the road play for certain IMO . Look what GT did offensively with a backup QB that day ? Sloppy and still got 27 which makes me think gonna be tough for them to get less then 27 here ..
As for shitting on Duke as a team there was alot of Duke love here on the site and to Dukes credit they led at half and led 24-14 early 3rd Quarter. Once Miami pulled ahead 28-21 with about 3 to play in the game the Blue Devils UNRAVELED quickly ! allowing 3 TDs on short fields which is really what killed them all game(field position battle) . 28 , 55 and 46 were the length of Miami's last 3 drives which skewed the game . Even before that they went 45 , 69 , 68 on 3 plays and 59 on the go ahead score . Dule had 11 plays 80 yds and 11 plays 77 yds in the 1st H . So in the end Duke probably should have close to the opener about TD dogs hosting Miami .
Anyway I love GT near -10 and feel basically the same at -11-120 . UVA mustered 3 pts from a team due for a letdown and due to lose a close game even thouugh they outplayed UVA this time . Teams with somewhat weak offenses that lack bigtime playmakers like Miss State and Duke socred 7 combined pts @ GT . UVA is in that class . The offense will improve with NEsbitt playing consecutive games IMO and be in the same situations it was vs Duke and Miss State with less miscues IMO ..think GT gets 27-35 here and 14 or less for UVA ....would really like -10 here even -9.5 -130 because I would be very comfortable with a guessestimation of 20-10 ..
We are on the same path . I just think the line is short and better to back teams especially good teams of games they won but could have played better . Rather then seeing them play a near perfect game .
last week Pitt jumped out only a FG @ Nvay this week it was GT laying just -12 ....Especially knowing there was a ton of GT money last week who had to sweat a little . Agree Clemson was in a tough spot with what went on but think they are a talented team who was backed into a corner and responded after half . At the moment one of my stronger plays this week and thats about all I can add..
Also realize Nesbitt has played basically1 drive at home so far to evaluate him. He pulled his hammy ona 21 yd run on the opening drive vs Miss State and as you said went with theer 3rd stringer vs GWebb . Playing these crap teams midsason almost always produce a close game no matter what the program is . Teams approach it is a scrimmahe running basic offense and defense doing enough to just win and survive IMO. Unlike the early season meetings when teams are looking to set the tone for an upcoming season . So Josh Nesbitt's play has been @ Clemson , @ VaTech and @ BC ......damn tough schedule wouldnt you say ??
@ Clemson GT had 7 possessions starting @ there own 40 or better .
Punt , Punt , FG miss apprx 50yds , fumble inside the opposing 40 , TOD at the 50, @ Clemson 43 lost yardage and punted then finally getting a TD in the last try . Imagine if UVA allows that field position to GT .
@ VaTech the Jackets were +140 yds and lost by 3 pts. key plays opening drive fumble near the Vatech 30 , late fumble before half near there 45 up 10-7 gave VT a short field with 1:10 before half. To there credit the home team punched it in to go up 14-10 . The late 3rd Q while moving the ball Nesbitt was picked near the VT 40 which again credit the home team as it produced a FG drive . Then 17-10 the Jackets came right back and scored to tie it.
@ BC again they had ball security issues but again very good defense . 1st H 2 fumbles including on near the BC 40 after starting at the BC 44 . Think the 3rd Q is crazy insane . BC 29 ,32 , and 27 starting field position in that Q alone and they managed 3 pts with kust 1 of 3 FGs . Missing from 48 and 41 yds but scary they didnt take advantage still @ BC tough defense , young QB making his 1st road start , new coach , new offense , etc....
Important how they hold teams to FGs as well ...3fgs(all inside the red zone) / 1td @ BC , @ Hokies 2Fgs and 2 TDs( 1 43 yd drive) but the Fgs from 21 and 25 keeping them out of the end zone in the 2nd H , Miss State moved the ball but 0/4 in the red zone thats to mistakes and the TD was in teh 4th Q and only 49yd drive ...Duke shutout .....team is crazy tough inside the red zone IMO and they always get good field position in games......
GT has certainly been flawed but I think with UVA the type of team they make more plays against ....:cheers:
illow:
