2008 cfb -- time to post my week 9 card so far

[RetroVK]

updated through week 8
overall 51-39-2
Sides 32-29-2
moneyline dogs 1-1
totals 18-9

Had a nice week last week. Will make a post later with the recaps and it should be pretty fun for a change as even my 3 losses of rugers/uconn over , scarolina and vatech werent exactly terrible plays.


Locked in

Nebraska -10
Auburn +3.5
Missouri -19
Virginia +11.5
cincinnati +1
oregon -4
ncstate/maryland under 46.5
northwestern/indiana over 49
georgia/lsu under 48.5
michiganst/michigan under 46
pennst/tosu under 46

strong leans
ncstate +10.5 eliminated october 24
cincinnati +1 added to plays october 20
Tulane -2.5 eliminated october 24
oregon -3.5 added to plays october 20
kansas -1.5 eliminated october 21

Talk me off leans

san jose state +7 eliminated oct 23
kent st +8 eliminated oct 23
notre dame -11 eliminated october 21
nevada -3 eliminated october 21

 

[broadwayjoe]

auburn????!!!! hmmmmm

 

[RetroVK]

auburn????!!!! hmmmmm

Heh. This was the game i thought was super juicy this week. wrong team favored.

 

[carolinablue]

Also on the Huskers. Kinda surprised UVA has jumped up to 13 as I thought it would have moved closer to 10, but hey what do I know. Great job in week 8, hope you keep it going this week!

 

[Marlo]

Kyle

nothing just screams bet me at this point, except TCU -31. Does Wyoming even score in this one? Does TCU have a letdown?

Bama -5.5 is interesting to me.

Missouri back at home is tempting, but would have liked the number you got.

23 for Kentucky? There defense should keep them from losing any game by that number, even against Florida.

Illy/Wisconsin is interesting. Is it time to buy Wisconsin?

Minnesota/Purdue line is tempting.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Love that Auburn bet! Wrong team favored and I knew we would get a good line if Auburn did not rebound strong from their LSU loss. Auburn is a strong team, but there are a few problems they are working out. Pat White will be contained by that speedy AU defense.

 

[hoopsstar22]

I just hit Auburn +3.5.

Was that the opener?

 

[pags11]

with you on Auburn and Nebraska...

 

[HUNT]

Hey brah...wondering what your thoughts are on Oregon -3.5..thinking about playing it for a couple units...I like the fact Roper will be back, and even if he isn't Masoli is capable. ASU is in shambles, Carpenter still not 100 percent and the run game and oline is not pretty.

Also Illinois is only -1?? Wisconsin is done.

 

[RetroVK]

Also on the Huskers. Kinda surprised UVA has jumped up to 13 as I thought it would have moved closer to 10, but hey what do I know. Great job in week 8, hope you keep it going this week!

Also surprised by the line move. Mostly a bet on recent form which is a sketchy way to make money sometimes. Happy with the value and decision ... unhappy to be getting the worst of it. Wonder how much of this is people riding GT until they dont cover. I have sound resoning behind the play. I guess if anyone likes now they might as well wait since the momentum of the line is clearly headed upward so far.

Likely a smaller card , even if just lsightly so.

 

[HUNT]

I took Illy..fuck it.

 

[RetroVK]

Kyle

nothing just screams bet me at this point, except TCU -31. Does Wyoming even score in this one? Does TCU have a letdown?

Bama -5.5 is interesting to me.

Missouri back at home is tempting, but would have liked the number you got.

23 for Kentucky? There defense should keep them from losing any game by that number, even against Florida.

Illy/Wisconsin is interesting. Is it time to buy Wisconsin?

Minnesota/Purdue line is tempting.

hey marlo !

tcu -31 is nothing that interests me. They probably cover since wyoming never covers. I wont lay that many points.

bama -6 looks scary to me but this seems to be the type of game where bama shows up. Also not interested in that game as i think the line is sharp and it rates to be a low scoring smashmouth game.

missouri -- this game gets very ugly .. lay up to 21 not a half point more.... probably good beyond that but i wont recommend what i wont do myself.

kentucky -- i bet against florida with hawaii , miamifl , tennessee , and lsu. i need to cut betting against gators out of my system and take up designer drug habit to save money. i wont bet against gators. will have to look elsewhere for thoughts on that game as i havent capped it and i am not going to unless i have free time at the end of the week. i hate urban meyer.

illy/wiscy -- depends if you can tell me the motivational angles and be confident in them. From a matchup standpoint this game is different than recent wiscy losses. Will get into that more later. i am not betting it.


minny/purdue -- one of the toughest games on the slate imo. staying far away.... will cheer for minny so my purdue under season wins total cashes. not betting. would love to hear others thoughts on that game though. From a handicapping perspective its a really tough game to gauge.

 

[RetroVK]

Love that Auburn bet! Wrong team favored and I knew we would get a good line if Auburn did not rebound strong from their LSU loss. Auburn is a strong team, but there are a few problems they are working out. Pat White will be contained by that speedy AU defense.

pat white is heartless when he gets smacked in the face .. the one thing auburn can do. Only turnovers ruin this bet for us.

 

[RetroVK]

I just hit Auburn +3.5.

Was that the opener?

first number i saw , not sure if it was opener.

 

[RetroVK]

with you on Auburn and Nebraska...

nice. Enjoyed our football roundtable this afternoon.

gl always

 

[RetroVK]

Hey brah...wondering what your thoughts are on Oregon -3.5..thinking about playing it for a couple units...I like the fact Roper will be back, and even if he isn't Masoli is capable. ASU is in shambles, Carpenter still not 100 percent and the run game and oline is not pretty.

Also Illinois is only -1?? Wisconsin is done.

oregon will be on my leans list. i like it. ASU has been overrated now for almost two full years.

Oregon can do everything that cal did to ASU , only more efficiently and more explosively on offense. ASU has serious oline and dline problems when they face above average competition. teams from northwest get tired a lot in the desert though .. still looking at that one.... definte lean to oregon. Fits the category of having a play on team and having a play against team involved in the same game.

 

[RetroVK]

I took Illy..fuck it.

If you can convince me of some major motivational angles then i could consider it but illinois is a much better matcup for wisconsin than the previous three games. Iowa , tosu and pennst are all very capable of shutting down the run and making wisconsin throw which they cant do. Illinois run defense is somewhat pathetic. Don't like the line value unless you think wiscy has given up and will roll over. I am staying away but understand some of why you like it.

 

[HUNT]

VK, Wisconsin hasn't stopped a spread team all year. Wisconsin defense is built for a power running team ala Michigan defense. They jsut don't have the players to move side to side and contain.

Illinois run defense isn't the greatest, but I don't think it matters..since wisconsin is very 1 dimensional. Illinois struggles with teams that have a second dimension. I truly feel this line is way off...plus wisconsin has no qb...whether is sherer or everidge..they don't scare teams...

 

[brewer]

how can illy be -1 if osu was -2 there?

 

[RetroVK]

how can illy be -1 if osu was -2 there?

obviously the oddsmakers are factoring in some element of "quit".

have the wheels fallen off or has wisconsin just lost three straight to the three best teams in the conference ?

 

[RetroVK]

VK, Wisconsin hasn't stopped a spread team all year. Wisconsin defense is built for a power running team ala Michigan defense. They jsut don't have the players to move side to side and contain.

Illinois run defense isn't the greatest, but I don't think it matters..since wisconsin is very 1 dimensional. Illinois struggles with teams that have a second dimension. I truly feel this line is way off...plus wisconsin has no qb...whether is sherer or everidge..they don't scare teams...

I can see illinois winning , dont get me wrong ,,, and i agree that they will move the ball but i think wiscy has a better chance of matching score for score here. Not confident of it but think it is definitely possible.

like i said before ..... the big advantage to me here for Illinois would be motivational .... but i cant base an entire bet on that. i also hate juice williams on the road ....

 

[Dmoney416]

Congrats on the huge week VK - will be back for more discussion later.

Great number for Missouri - guess I'd have to lean that way as well as Colorado is definitely not who I thought they were.

 

[brewer]

i dunno why they would quit. rivalry is still a rivalry.

 

[SportsNut]

Also surprised by the line move. Mostly a bet on recent form which is a sketchy way to make money sometimes. Happy with the value and decision ... unhappy to be getting the worst of it. Wonder how much of this is people riding GT until they dont cover. I have sound resoning behind the play. I guess if anyone likes now they might as well wait since the momentum of the line is clearly headed upward so far.

Likely a smaller card , even if just lsightly so.

No doubt that GTech will be a strong play here for me. UVA is all trick mirrors IMO . They QB has progressed well but has a huge issue with INTs and alot of there scoring past few home games has could on big plays that wont happen . They only beat UNC because the Heels couldnt bury them . Terrible spot for them . GTech's defense will hold the offense to 10 and eventually the UVA defense will wear down here ....Worst spot in the past month to take UVA as its the Lowest line vs th ebest opponent and on the road . They caught +10 / +11 at home to Maryland which translates to about +17 @ Maryland , they caught about a TD vs ECU translates to +13 / +14 @ ECU , and now closed at +4 vs UNC without its best player again translates into +11 to +13 on the road . GTech is better then all of those teams and UVa scored a FG @ Duke and then dont recall what a UConn if they did score ......

Gtech would be a TD easy @ UVA put this way they were a small fav @ Clemson and Clemson is still better then UVA...

One of the games that jumped out as I soon I saw it ....remember while they have improved all that improvement was at home vs overvalued teams who were medium road chalk. They were +10 @ UConn and +3 @ Duke ..:cheers:

 

[JPicks]

Nice work with last week's card Kyle. BOL this week.

 

[SportsNut]

obviously the oddsmakers are factoring in some element of "quit".

have the wheels fallen off or has wisconsin just lost three straight to the three best teams in the conference ?

Not to mention Ill dropping 50 something this weekend . :shake:

 

[Dmoney416]

I'm a bit weary of Illinois this weekend.

Sherer looked ok to me against Iowa, and, quite frankly, Wisconsin had all the chances in the world to seize momentum of this game in the 3rd quarter. But they settled for FGs over and over again.

I will say this though, Wisconsin had the worst tackling game I have seen from a BCS team all season. If they pull that crap again they will lose by 20.

 

[HUNT]

Wisconsin lost to Michigan.

 

[RetroVK]

No doubt that GTech will be a strong play here for me. UVA is all trick mirrors IMO . They QB has progressed well but has a huge issue with INTs and alot of there scoring past few home games has could on big plays that wont happen . They only beat UNC because the Heels couldnt bury them . Terrible spot for them . GTech's defense will hold the offense to 10 and eventually the UVA defense will wear down here ....Worst spot in the past month to take UVA as its the Lowest line vs th ebest opponent and on the road . They caught +10 / +11 at home to Maryland which translates to about +17 @ Maryland , they caught about a TD vs ECU translates to +13 / +14 @ ECU , and now closed at +4 vs UNC without its best player again translates into +11 to +13 on the road . GTech is better then all of those teams and UVa scored a FG @ Duke and then dont recall what a UConn if they did score ......

Gtech would be a TD easy @ UVA put this way they were a small fav @ Clemson and Clemson is still better then UVA...

One of the games that jumped out as I soon I saw it ....remember while they have improved all that improvement was at home vs overvalued teams who were medium road chalk. They were +10 @ UConn and +3 @ Duke ..:cheers:

alright .. i want to look at this from two different directions and shwo what i am thinking here .. obviously a lot of sharp money disagrees with me as the line move indicates that .. but i do have good reasons.

First lets look at the virginia season.

They start out hosting usc which was an impossible game for them. Returning just 10 guys from last years starting units on offense and defense and facing pete carroll with a long time to prepare. They struggled as a lot of folks predicted ( i thought it would be close than it was ). Their next game is the reason i think most folks are taking GT in this game. They travelled to uconn with Verica getting his first start of the year on the road in a revenge game for the huskies. Another tough spot imo because of losing lalich. The fact that uconn and donald brown went wild on them on the ground is why most will think gt can run it down their throats. ok now stop because i think things take a drastic turn for the better for this team......

Their next game is at duke..... they play very solid in the first half of the game until they lose a couple of key guys on defense for the second half. The defense didn't respond and 6 turnovers when all is said and done and they lose by a deceiving score. I watched most of this game and virginia looked like the better team for the first half ... and then the wheels fell off.

Following duke they dominated maryland. Verica had a nice game and stayed away from the interception.

Following maryland they dominated ecu. Verica threw two first quarter interceptions but then settled down and was 25/32 for 216 yards and a td , plus the two int.

Following ecu they were outplayed by unc but benefitted from some turnovers and won the game in OT. verica was 24/38 with no interceptions.

So the kid has steadily improved as the year has gone on and the team has improved since the return of star running back cedric peerman.

So i am left with deciding which is more probable ... that the young team from the usc and uconn games were the real cavaliers or the team we have seen the last few weeks. Well since i can point to reasons why there is improvement , i choose the latter.

1. start slow because they were replacing a lot and had experience issues
2. dealt with losing qb to off the field issues for trip to uconn
3. They get a rushing attack back when peerman rejoins the starting unit and start improving
4. the qb starts making better decisions and gaining confidence as he gets more experience.

We can say what we want about gameday coaching ( and make no mistake its paul johnson vs al groh which is a huge mismatch in favor of gt ) but al groh does recruit pretty good and i think this team is getting better each week.

Sure there is a difference in the line .. i agree with you there but i think it is because of hwo drastically virginia has outperformed the line the last few weeks .. they ahve shown they are a different team now. if they revert back to what they were at uconn then yes .. they lose and get blown out.

i hav emore and will continue tonight with my reasoning here .... but want to post this part so that if i lose it i dont have to retype the whole thing ... more incoming

 

[SportsNut]

Auburn ? Pretty simply approach here SEC getting pts vs the Big East .

San Jose State ? Not really big on this team but they are taking care of business . The best element here is there defense IMO. Boise State just tries to get a lead and goes conservative but they struggled to run vs Hawaii . A points is premium type game plus the whole home dog Thursday angle . Think SJ has a great chance at winning SU here .

Nevada ? I still think Hawaii is pretty bad its just a matter of Nevada as road chalk in a historically tough venue .

How bout some Uconn love ?? They pissed away the game vs Rutgers and should be at least a FG here . Though curious to see who is expected to be at QB for Cincy . Think we have two equal teams but the fact UConn NEEDS a win helps here ...

Pitt ? They dismantled Navy and with how there defense is playing scoring will be tough for RU IMO .

Wisky ? Think the line is well adjusted here to compensate for recent losing streak . I know Penn St killed them but we are looking at a team probably 10 pts weaker then the Nittany Lions .....

NCState looks decent as well . Terps have been real tough at home but my concern here is Turner has played well at home and WOlfpack pass defense terrible recently .....over ...

Miami ? Just down on WF but not sure its a fair line ...

Arkansas ? Looks attractive but off the tough loss are they flat here ?? Ole Miss needs a win ...?

Kentucky +23 ? Looks interesting but Bama if they didnt self destruct may have put a nice beatdown on Tucky . Alot expended in the comeback win borderline IMO would look at FLa under 21 actually.....

Line seems high but UNLV off a tough home loss could be flat here and BYU at home is tough . With the defensive issues for UNLV think good spot for BYU bounce back .....

Might have to go with Okie State here because Texas off about 2 wins that really cant any bigger .....

Oklahoma OVER 70 ....

Tenny +6 ? Only because the VOLS defense is under the radar and Bama;s offense can be mistake prone and leave points off the board . Issue here is what does Tennys offense does vs Bama's defense ? Actually line is kinda short should be at least a TD ....fence

Cal ? Cal was killed in the 2nd H by big plays something UCLA can not produce and there solid defense drops a few notches on the road....

BG off a tough loss well a badly played loss but they lead for about 3 quarters until losing it . Thought NIU was close to BG would have made this -4.5 a week ago. Think BG is better then Toledo and similiar number

TCU probably amped up for a half but alot of points for an uninterested team with I think Utah on deck. A defense first , run orientated team always more likely to cruise because they cant just score with ease like a high octane offense with a stud QB .....1st H TCU but Wyoming game ? TCU will be marked now and may bet teams best shot ...same deal with Wyomng pick 6s and turnovers kill them.....

Missouri looks like it gets a good opponent in CU. They struggled to beat Kansas State and Mizzou needs a win here got the offense back late ..1st H Mizzou ?

Nebraska for sure ....

Louisville ? Syracuse suprisingly moved the ball on them and think so does Loyuisville ....over

Kansas ? Texas tech has not looked good past 2 weeks and now faces a tough test ...

No way should Penn State be favored @ Ohio State IMO .....Buckeyes here .

ND looks interesting but why do I feel like they win by 10 ??

SDST is in shambles but kinda crazy for CSU to be favored by a TD when they stall so often on offense . Also depends on SDST QB.....

Zona getting 2TDs ++...USC has shown to struggle vs tough conference teams on the road . Wash St is a joke we all know it ..

First Glance w/o any research all off the top of my head.....:cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

Congrats on the huge week VK - will be back for more discussion later.

Great number for Missouri - guess I'd have to lean that way as well as Colorado is definitely not who I thought they were.

too slow to defend missouri .. mizz has to take it out on someone.... colorado has been having a hard time scoring and has not looked good on the road offensively. mizz is scoring on slow defense so the ? becomes can colorado keep up ?? i say no.

 

[RetroVK]

i dunno why they would quit. rivalry is still a rivalry.

agree i think .. just unsure .. too much uncertainty for me to bet or have interest in betting. illinois is sort of a jekyll/hyde team as well.

passing myself

 

[RetroVK]

Nice work with last week's card Kyle. BOL this week.

Thanks man. Was a fun week for a change.

not much interest in the mwc this week.

 

[Dmoney416]

SN, FWIW, Pike will almost certainly start against UConn.

Frazer is a question mark for UConn. They may have to go with a RS Frosh.

I have Cincy and UConn equal on a neutral with Chazz Anderson and Frazer at QB.

I have Cincy as 2 points better on a neutral with Pike vs. Frazer.

Tough to make a line with the potential new guy for UConn. I feel that Cincy matches up well since they can stop the run, but this is another bad spot for Cincy IMO.

 

[RetroVK]

I'm a bit weary of Illinois this weekend.

Sherer looked ok to me against Iowa, and, quite frankly, Wisconsin had all the chances in the world to seize momentum of this game in the 3rd quarter. But they settled for FGs over and over again.

I will say this though, Wisconsin had the worst tackling game I have seen from a BCS team all season. If they pull that crap again they will lose by 20.

I know some people will laugh at me when i say this ....... but i thinkt here is a chance that iowa is the best team in the big ten. Not a great chance that they are ... but its possible. They gave away a couple of games they should have won outplaying pitt , michst and nw in defeat. i think wisconsin lost there as it was a bad spot to face a team that was going to smack them in the mouth and stuff their running game. shonn greene is a stud rb that no one ever mentions but by years end he will have heisman like numbers that are BETTER than javon ringers.

Just saying that getting their ass completely kicked by iowa on the road is not as bad as some might think.

 

[RetroVK]

Wisconsin lost to Michigan.

illegal formation :36_11_6:


gave it away ... fell asleep second half.

 

[Dmoney416]

I know some people will laugh at me when i say this ....... but i thinkt here is a chance that iowa is the best team in the big ten. Not a great chance that they are ... but its possible. They gave away a couple of games they should have won outplaying pitt , michst and nw in defeat. i think wisconsin lost there as it was a bad spot to face a team that was going to smack them in the mouth and stuff their running game. shonn greene is a stud rb that no one ever mentions but by years end he will have heisman like numbers that are BETTER than javon ringers.

Just saying that getting their ass completely kicked by iowa on the road is not as bad as some might think.

We disagree more on this team than any other in CFB.

 

[RetroVK]

SN, FWIW, Pike will almost certainly start against UConn.

Frazer is a question mark for UConn. They may have to go with a RS Frosh.

I have Cincy and UConn equal on a neutral with Chazz Anderson and Frazer at QB.

I have Cincy as 2 points better on a neutral with Pike vs. Frazer.

Tough to make a line with the potential new guy for UConn. I feel that Cincy matches up well since they can stop the run, but this is another bad spot for Cincy IMO.

How is kelly off a bye week ?

Also , cincy is just stuffing the run every game .... how does frazier or the untested qb make plays in the secondary ?? They held uconn to 22 yards rushing last year ... dont see why that changes to the tune of a huge day for Brown which is the only way that uconn competes imo.

also love the huber kid for close lined games as i dont think books or cappers account for him turning the field around. Especially considering tht uconn is having all kinds of trouble with punting. HUGE EDGE that might not be accounted for.

Much like i liked rutgers chances to move the ball through the air ( and they did ) , i also like cincy chances to do similar.

Technical trend of cincy always beating uconn here as well.

i will add this game in the morning i think.

 

[RetroVK]

We disagree more on this team than any other in CFB.

Why do you dislike iowa ??

i just keep betting and cashing on these guys. They had one bad game against iowa state .. rest look pretty damn good to me.

hoping illinois wins at wisconsin so i get a nice line to play iowa at illinois the following week

Likely playing them plus the points the week after hosting pennst as well. probably going to moneyline it.

 

[RetroVK]

Auburn ? Pretty simply approach here SEC getting pts vs the Big East .

San Jose State ? Not really big on this team but they are taking care of business . The best element here is there defense IMO. Boise State just tries to get a lead and goes conservative but they struggled to run vs Hawaii . A points is premium type game plus the whole home dog Thursday angle . Think SJ has a great chance at winning SU here .

Nevada ? I still think Hawaii is pretty bad its just a matter of Nevada as road chalk in a historically tough venue .

How bout some Uconn love ?? They pissed away the game vs Rutgers and should be at least a FG here . Though curious to see who is expected to be at QB for Cincy . Think we have two equal teams but the fact UConn NEEDS a win helps here ...

Pitt ? They dismantled Navy and with how there defense is playing scoring will be tough for RU IMO .

Wisky ? Think the line is well adjusted here to compensate for recent losing streak . I know Penn St killed them but we are looking at a team probably 10 pts weaker then the Nittany Lions .....

NCState looks decent as well . Terps have been real tough at home but my concern here is Turner has played well at home and WOlfpack pass defense terrible recently .....over ...

Miami ? Just down on WF but not sure its a fair line ...

Arkansas ? Looks attractive but off the tough loss are they flat here ?? Ole Miss needs a win ...?

Kentucky +23 ? Looks interesting but Bama if they didnt self destruct may have put a nice beatdown on Tucky . Alot expended in the comeback win borderline IMO would look at FLa under 21 actually.....

Line seems high but UNLV off a tough home loss could be flat here and BYU at home is tough . With the defensive issues for UNLV think good spot for BYU bounce back .....

Might have to go with Okie State here because Texas off about 2 wins that really cant any bigger .....

Oklahoma OVER 70 ....

Tenny +6 ? Only because the VOLS defense is under the radar and Bama;s offense can be mistake prone and leave points off the board . Issue here is what does Tennys offense does vs Bama's defense ? Actually line is kinda short should be at least a TD ....fence

Cal ? Cal was killed in the 2nd H by big plays something UCLA can not produce and there solid defense drops a few notches on the road....

BG off a tough loss well a badly played loss but they lead for about 3 quarters until losing it . Thought NIU was close to BG would have made this -4.5 a week ago. Think BG is better then Toledo and similiar number

TCU probably amped up for a half but alot of points for an uninterested team with I think Utah on deck. A defense first , run orientated team always more likely to cruise because they cant just score with ease like a high octane offense with a stud QB .....1st H TCU but Wyoming game ? TCU will be marked now and may bet teams best shot ...same deal with Wyomng pick 6s and turnovers kill them.....

Missouri looks like it gets a good opponent in CU. They struggled to beat Kansas State and Mizzou needs a win here got the offense back late ..1st H Mizzou ?

Nebraska for sure ....

Louisville ? Syracuse suprisingly moved the ball on them and think so does Loyuisville ....over

Kansas ? Texas tech has not looked good past 2 weeks and now faces a tough test ...

No way should Penn State be favored @ Ohio State IMO .....Buckeyes here .

ND looks interesting but why do I feel like they win by 10 ??

SDST is in shambles but kinda crazy for CSU to be favored by a TD when they stall so often on offense . Also depends on SDST QB.....

Zona getting 2TDs ++...USC has shown to struggle vs tough conference teams on the road . Wash St is a joke we all know it ..

First Glance w/o any research all off the top of my head.....:cheers:

good stuff .. will pick some stuff out and look at it as the week progresses.... still have to show you why i bet virginia ....

 

[Dmoney416]

How is kelly off a bye week ?

Also , cincy is just stuffing the run every game .... how does frazier or the untested qb make plays in the secondary ?? They held uconn to 22 yards rushing last year ... dont see why that changes to the tune of a huge day for Brown which is the only way that uconn competes imo.

also love the huber kid for close lined games as i dont think books or cappers account for him turning the field around. Especially considering tht uconn is having all kinds of trouble with punting. HUGE EDGE that might not be accounted for.

Much like i liked rutgers chances to move the ball through the air ( and they did ) , i also like cincy chances to do similar.

Technical trend of cincy always beating uconn here as well.

i will add this game in the morning i think.

I don't have the ATS stats of Kelly off a bye, but I have to think he makes the most of it.

I was going to stay far away from this game as I think this is another poor spot for Cincy: homecoming for UConn (though these HC teams aren't doing great this year), revenge factor, Pike coming off injury, Pike playing the toughest team he has faced to this point, etc.

I do think Donald Brown has improved a little this season, and I can't quite rate Cincy's run D as good as last year due to the loss of the DEs. I don't Brown has huge day, I think its safe to say he'll be better than last year.

Agree about the punting though.

If Endres (RS Frosh starts), I'll have to take Cincy small if its still around a PK though. Cincy's not the kind of D you want to face in your first start - they are fast and aggressive. They'll take chances, and you have to wonder if this kid will be able to make the plays, particularly without a stellar WR core.

Edit: I'll try to get to Iowa later.

 

[SportsNut]

alright .. i want to look at this from two different directions and shwo what i am thinking here .. obviously a lot of sharp money disagrees with me as the line move indicates that .. but i do have good reasons.

First lets look at the virginia season.

They start out hosting usc which was an impossible game for them. Returning just 10 guys from last years starting units on offense and defense and facing pete carroll with a long time to prepare. They struggled as a lot of folks predicted ( i thought it would be close than it was ). Their next game is the reason i think most folks are taking GT in this game. They travelled to uconn with Verica getting his first start of the year on the road in a revenge game for the huskies. Another tough spot imo because of losing lalich. The fact that uconn and donald brown went wild on them on the ground is why most will think gt can run it down their throats. ok now stop because i think things take a drastic turn for the better for this team......

Their next game is at duke..... they play very solid in the first half of the game until they lose a couple of key guys on defense for the second half. The defense didn't respond and 6 turnovers when all is said and done and they lose by a deceiving score. I watched most of this game and virginia looked like the better team for the first half ... and then the wheels fell off.

Following duke they dominated maryland. Verica had a nice game and stayed away from the interception.

Following maryland they dominated ecu. Verica threw two first quarter interceptions but then settled down and was 25/32 for 216 yards and a td , plus the two int.

Following ecu they were outplayed by unc but benefitted from some turnovers and won the game in OT. verica was 24/38 with no interceptions.

So the kid has steadily improved as the year has gone on and the team has improved since the return of star running back cedric peerman.

So i am left with deciding which is more probable ... that the young team from the usc and uconn games were the real cavaliers or the team we have seen the last few weeks. Well since i can point to reasons why there is improvement , i choose the latter.

1. start slow because they were replacing a lot and had experience issues
2. dealt with losing qb to off the field issues for trip to uconn
3. They get a rushing attack back when peerman rejoins the starting unit and start improving
4. the qb starts making better decisions and gaining confidence as he gets more experience.

We can say what we want about gameday coaching ( and make no mistake its paul johnson vs al groh which is a huge mismatch in favor of gt ) but al groh does recruit pretty good and i think this team is getting better each week.

Sure there is a difference in the line .. i agree with you there but i think it is because of hwo drastically virginia has outperformed the line the last few weeks .. they ahve shown they are a different team now. if they revert back to what they were at uconn then yes .. they lose and get blown out.

i hav emore and will continue tonight with my reasoning here .... but want to post this part so that if i lose it i dont have to retype the whole thing ... more incoming

I dont disagree UVA has improved since the first few games but again its all about situations . They had 3 straight games with favorable situations on top of being Home . They catch Maryland off the win @ Clemson and lets not forget the Terps are not the DD fav type of team losing SU @ Mid Tenn State , ECU is living off its 1st two games vs VaTech and WVU but just like UVA they built a reputation at home and got overvalued when traveling (nearly lost @ Tulane , lost @ NCST who I think was winless and @ Maryland ) , then catch NC off two wins at home UConn and ND that were misleading in some form plus lost start WR Tate . Nice wins for sure but not impressive because teams were in bad spots playing a team who done nothing in 2008 .

Put it this way real simple. They were 3 pt dogs at Duke and played okay but losy by 4 TDs who GTech happened to just handle Duke at home laying 2TDs .

UVA wont score much here and may setup some short fields . UVA is ripe IMO for a loss especially when you look at how medicore they played vs ECU and UNC.

Anything under 2 TDs presents a ton of value IMO for GT.

AT -12 somehow these teams are -8 on a neutral field ? No way in hell I see that . UVA has improved but have not performed on the road . WIth that in mind you would expect them to be undervalued while here they are to cheap with -14 to -17 being closer to realistic IMO ......Even last year a much worse version of GT was -3.5 @ UVA an dlost a close game ....

Even more Miss State is a version of UVA and they lsot 38-7 as 7pt dogs ....

UVA at home had 275 yds of offense this week (68 plays !!)and 27c-58yds rushing. On the road you always need to run the ball to protect a young QB and just dont see it happening here . Plus GT with that crap game vs GWebb at home will want to makeup for that .

The Cavs wont score more then 14 here IMO and probably struggle to get 10 pts . They have improved but with that they have lost value .....

1 month ago +13 at home to Maryland = +21 @ Maryland . Sure it was a bad number and spot but they would be +14 @ Maryland today IMO at a minimum . GT is better then Maryland and all recent opponents .....

Definelty one of my strongest plays of the week . This line is off a good FG or so ...

Basically my disagreement with you is judging there improvement at home vs overrated , inflated and poor situational opponents as indicative of who UVA is . If I can talk you off anything this would probably be one of those ..

Improved YES but factored in has to be there opponents and what type of lines thet recieved. Its what made CAR such a clear play in the NFL today . People talked up the Saints but there play looked great because it was at home vs SF and OAK but as small favs -4.5 and -7.5 ....:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

I don't have the ATS stats of Kelly off a bye, but I have to think he makes the most of it.

I was going to stay far away from this game as I think this is another poor spot for Cincy: homecoming for UConn (though these HC teams aren't doing great this year), revenge factor, Pike coming off injury, Pike playing the toughest team he has faced to this point, etc.

I do think Donald Brown has improved a little this season, and I can't quite rate Cincy's run D as good as last year due to the loss of the DEs. I don't Brown has huge day, I think its safe to say he'll be better than last year.

Agree about the punting though.

If Endres (RS Frosh starts), I'll have to take Cincy small if its still around a PK though. Cincy's not the kind of D you want to face in your first start - they are fast and aggressive. They'll take chances, and you have to wonder if this kid will be able to make the plays, particularly without a stellar WR core.

Edit: I'll try to get to Iowa later.

Why wouldnt Frazire start ? What did I miss ? He did a great job of leading them back and think with him vs Chazz UConn is a tad better . :cheers:

 

[TailBait]

Do you guys have totals on the Texas/OK State game, as well as the total for the Texas Tech/Kansas game? I think I'm going to take the over in both games bc I don't think they can set a high enough line. I think Texas Tech is a much better team than Kansas. Kansas is still overrated, still getting respect from their season last year when they played NOBODY

 

[Actionman]

Wisconsin lost to Michigan.

"Wisconsin lost to Michigan and Michigan lost to Toledo and Toledo lost to FIU at home and they had to get a search party to find them at N. ILL!!!" :36_11_6:

Sat FIU lost to Troy with their QB out for the year and the starting center out. The line movement was very "fishy" opening at 11 on Sunday night, but it was 7 and 7 1/2 on Monday at the offshore books. (It was "circled" at 7 at the Cal-Neva in Reno). The line proceeded to go back up to -10 by Thursday. On Sat. around gametime I listened to the audio and found out the Starting Center Franks was not playing and they were not starting the BU QB Tanner who had replaced Hampton at Fla Atl. Instead, they were starting the 3rd string QB Levi Brown who had started two games for a 1AA school and was a passer unlike Tanner. When I checked the line it had gone to -12 and the total total had gone from 45 to 47. Since I had taken 7 1/2, 8 1/2 and bought the hook when it went to 10, I threw a few bucks more at +12. I also played under 47 and 23 for the 1H.

Troy elected to receive supposedly to give the new qb confidence and quickly scored a TD. When they got the ball back, he threw a 86 yard TD pass and it was 13-0 after they missed the extra point in the opening minutes of the game . FIU fought back and it was 19-16 at halftime. Even though my total was blown, I still felt very good about this play because FIU had fallen behind at Toledo 13-0 and then had shut them COMPLETLY OUT in the 2H!!! (They also had played very well at NTand against Mid-Tenn at home in the 2H,too.)

Only one of the books I use had a 2H line at Troy-6 1/2 with no total. I shoulda, woulda and coulda laid the 6 1/2 to hedge my bet because most of it was under 10 1/2, but I just couldn't resist taking the 6 1/2 since I was getting the ball! (I only use the audio for the pregame shows to get injuries and lineups as I can't stand listening to announcers especially when I have the other side which was the case.)

After the half started for a while I listened to get the score and Troy of course had scored, not FIU. The announcer screamed that the FIU PR had fumbled in the red zone. I turned it off but I gave in and listened to hear had Troy gotten another TD and it was 34-17 for a 17 pt lead. That was all I needed to hear and I got so angry I almost punched my fist in the wall, but instead decided to call a friend I had told about this game and spill out my sad tale to him. While we were talking he told me that the score just came across his beeper and I was "only" losing by 10 with six minutes to go. (If I had any candles around I would have lit one but unfortunately we used them all up at my last birthday so I was on my own again.) Well the game landed 10, so it wasn't exactly a total loss but pretty close losing the HT bet and the total!

When I checked the boxscore today, the FIU Starting RB Reams did not play although the TRoy announcers said he was in the starting lineup. :hangThere was no game channel for this game)
Today I listened to the post game show and the coach never mentioned anything only about REams being out. He only talked about how good Troy's line was and said that they have the best offensive and defensive lines in the SB. (Pretty strong statement considering they also lost a key DE in Sept.)The QB McCall only briefly mention it. He blamed himself for the loss. With all the strong line movement in this game and the FIU RB out with no mention of it on any injury report makes this game very suspect.

FIU has a bye this week before playing ULL, but Troy goes to NT for their homecoming game. I sure hope this line goes up whatever it opened at because I might show up against them again.

:smiley_acbe:And now you know the rest of the story!!!

SN,

You were one of the few I mentioned this game to in a PM to you. Did you get it because you never mentioned anything about it in your 30 or so games you play?

 

[HUNT]

haha action..

 

[RetroVK]

Why wouldnt Frazire start ? What did I miss ? He did a great job of leading them back and think with him vs Chazz UConn is a tad better . :cheers:

concussion issues again .. he had them in the summer too.

i think pike is playing.

 

[RetroVK]

Do you guys have totals on the Texas/OK State game, as well as the total for the Texas Tech/Kansas game? I think I'm going to take the over in both games bc I don't think they can set a high enough line. I think Texas Tech is a much better team than Kansas. Kansas is still overrated, still getting respect from their season last year when they played NOBODY

kansas is over rated .... but they arent the only over rated team playing in that game.

Have not made my totals lines yet but both of those games will be sky high totals and be sure to check weather this week as we got a free pass last week ... but there are storm systems this week that we will need to look at prior to playing any overs.

 

[RetroVK]

"Wisconsin lost to Michigan and Michigan lost to Toledo and Toledo lost to FIU at home!!!" :36_11_6:

Sat FIU lost to Troy with their QB out for the year and the starting center out. The line movement was very "fishy" opening at 11 on Sunday night, but it was 7 and 7 1/2 on Monday at the offshore books. (It was "circled" at 7 at the Cal-Neva in Reno). The line proceeded to go back up to -10 by Thursday. On Sat. around gametime I listened to the audio and found out the Starting Center Franks was not playing and they were not starting the BU QB Tanner who had replaced Hampton at Fla Atl. Instead, they were starting the 3rd string QB Levi Brown who had started two games for a 1AA school and was a passer unlike Tanner. When I checked the line it had gone to -12 and the total total had gone from 45 to 47. Since I had taken 7 1/2, 8 1/2 and bought the hook when it went to 10, I threw a few bucks more at +12. I also played under 47 and 23 for the 1H.

Troy elected to receive supposedly to give the new qb confidence and quickly scored a TD. When they got the ball back, he threw a 86 yard TD pass and it was 13-0 after they missed the extra point in the opening minutes of the game . FIU fought back and it was 19-16 at halftime. Even though my total was blown, I still felt very good about this play because FIU had fallen behind at Toledo 13-0 and then had shut them COMPLETLY OUT in the 2H!!! (They also had played very well at NTand against Mid-Tenn at home in the 2H,too.)

Only one of the books I use had a 2H line at Troy-6 1/2 with no total. I shoulda, woulda and coulda laid the 6 1/2 to hedge my bet because most of it was under 10 1/2, but I just couldn't resist taking the 6 1/2 since I was getting the ball! I only use the audio for the pregame shows to get injuries and lineups as I can't stand listening to announcers especially when I have the other side which was the case. After the half started for a while I listened to get the score and Troy of course had scored, not FIU. The FIU PR fumbled in the red zone and Troy got another TD to take a 17 pt lead. I got so angry I almost punched my fist in the wall, but instead called a friend to spill my sad tale to him. While we were talking he told me that the score just came across his beeper and I was "only" losing by 10 with six minutes to go. If I had any candles around I would have lit one but unfortunately we used them all up at my last birthday so I was on my own again. Well the game landed 10, so it wasn't a total loss but the HT bet and the total loss ruined my day.

When I checked the boxscore today, the FIU Starting RB Reams did not play although the TRoy announcers said he was in the starting lineup. :hangThere was no game channel for this game)
Today I listened to the post game show and the coach never mentioned anything only about REams being out. He only talked about how good Troy's line was and said that they have the best offensive and defensive lines in the SB. (Pretty strong statement considering they also lost a key DE in Sept.)The QB McCall only briefly mention it. He blamed himself for the loss. With all the strong line movement in this game and the FIU RB out with no mention of it on any injury report makes this game very suspect.

FIU has a bye this week before playing ULL, but Troy goes to NT for their homecoming game. I sure hope this line goes up whatever it opened at because I might show up against them again.

:smiley_acbe:And now you know the rest of the story!!!

my head is spinning. funny stuff.

 

[O-State]

NEBRASKA-----Baylor won 38-10, Nebraska won 35-7 over Iowa State. Okie St. held Baylor to 32 rushing which was key I think they get over 100 on Huskers.
AUBURN-----Not seeing this like everyone else, I think it's pretty even. WVU has not played 1 real good rush defense to date yet Auburn while good have shown can be run on some. Not buying whole SEC angle here Auburn is an average team in any conference IMO.
VIRGINIA---Line looks off here I see Cavs having real trouble scoring but maybe GT as well. Not surprised by GT blowout
MISSOURI---love this one. kill every team that doesn't dominate them in the run game.

NC STATE---wouldn't back this team hardly ever.
NATI---I think Kelly is the type of coach that can get his team up to face a one faceted team that is a great great run team and get his boys up to stop it.
OREGON----look at the pass yardage they have given up, that disparity will trump Oregon's run advantage. IMO Oregon overrated as well, see them about like Stanford where ASU won.




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