2008 cfb --time to post my week 6 card so far

[RetroVK]

updated through week 5
overall 26-25-2
Sides 15-22-2
moneyline dogs 0-1
totals 11-2
middles/teasers/parlays/traps/etc 2-1 + $470

The record is actually better than my financial results due to some early season weighting preferences to sides vs totals. But we are getting closer to a winning season now and considering we were on short end of the stick in regards to two of the worst beats of the year that isn't too bad.. As usual a recap from worst capped to best capped in my opinion.

Arkansas +28 loser -- Combination of not realizing how far behind Arkansas is right now as far as having the proper typr of player in place to run petrinos system and just how bad this Arkansas defense is. At some point we have to start giving some love to the longhorns who are playing some pretty damn good football. The box score tells the whole story and as I just said …… I was way off on this game. Thought there were opportunities out there for Arkansas but they just aren’t fine tuned enough to take advantage yet. My mistake. Here is the box score which I post for two reasons , 1. to show how dominant texas was and how wrong I was about this game and 2. For compariosn purposes to another box score later in the thread.

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left></TD><TD>

</TD><TD>

</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>25</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency







</TD><TD>2-13</TD><TD>7-12</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency







</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>0-0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>191</TD><TD>421</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>180</TD><TD>213</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att







</TD><TD>14-28</TD><TD>21-23</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass







</TD><TD>6.4</TD><TD>9.3</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>208</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts







</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>50</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush







</TD><TD>0.4</TD><TD>4.2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>6-38</TD><TD>7-79</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost







</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown







</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>25:41</TD><TD>34:19</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Cincinnati -10 loser-- To say I was shocked by this game would be an understatement. I watched every single play and what I saw disturbed me. I have a future bet on cincy to win over 6.5 wins. They lost mauk when he didn’t get the extra year of eligibility from the ncaa , then they lost grutza to injury and late in that game they lost pike to injury. So this club is basically down to the fourth string qb. But what disturbed me more was what I saw on the field from the rest of the players. Akron appeared faster , more physical , more hungry and to have emotion than cincy did. The bearcats have no speed at RB at all. This kid Goebel runs hard but his vision is lacking and he simply doesn’t seem quick. This means that the bearcats need to throw to the wideouts ( who had quite a few drops ) and with collaros at qb it could be tough sledding. And this team simply can’t stop committing penalties for whatever reason. Depending on the line I will be giving marshall a long look this week. As for akron , they impressed me. They executed their offense , hit hard on defense and played hard from opening kickoff to closing gun. Akron out first downed cincy 23-21 and cincy won the yardage battle 426 to 358. So the game was pretty evenly played and the difference really came down to fg kicking. The akron kicker was 1 of 2 and the cincy kicker 1-1. But what was even more important was that the akron kicker missed an extra point … which later led to a miussed two point conversion .. Which was the margin of victory. Whenever I lay 10 points , I expect domination and this was anything but. Terribly miscapped game. Shocked by it even today. The future bet is in trouble even sitting at 3-1.

Western Michigan -3 winner --- not horrifically capped I don’t think but I think we also need to face some realities. I know that whenever I am on the dog and the favorite can only muster 1 td that my bet wasn’t too bad. Western Michigan did dominate a little bit in the box score. Did not see a play of this game and I am assuming the weather was bad. Shrug. Western mich was held to 36 yards rushing and 1.4 a carry by temple defense but did manage to have success through the air. W Michigan out first downed temple 18-10 and outgained them 288 - 196 . So obviously the temple offense was shutdown without dimichele in there and that was a big basis of the bet. Torn as to whether this was a great bet or not … but I would do it again so I guess it wasn’t capped horribly.

Usf/ncstate under 44--loser -- like the other 3 under bets , I didn’t have a very strong opinion on the total itself ( just small leans ) but was tryiong to get a larger edge through the weather. Ironically this game ended up havin one of the worst stretches of weather of the four and was the only one that didn’t cash. What happened was Leavitt made the guys run hurry up offense the first quarter when the weather wasn’t bad when he knew the forecast for later in the game. The result of this was 23 usf points in the first twenty minutes. The rain finally started hitting hard after that and the game slowed down. The game went over at the 949 mark of the fourth quarter with me clinging to hope for a 3 point quarter for the push. Not to be and with 785 combined yards and 42 combined first downs , I didn’t deserve this one anyway.

Uab/scarolina under 48 winner -- never got any bad weather. So that angle was bad. 36 first downs point to an under and 560 combined yards point to a close call or an over. Benefitted from a goalline stand , and turnovers on the correct side of midfield. Kickers went an amazing 6 for 6 though. All in all feel ok about this one .. Again I only had a slight lean to under and played it due to weather forecasts that didn’t pan out.

Navy/wake under 53 winner -- feel ok about this as the under looked good basically the whole game. Actually did have some rain in this one as well and it actually seemed to bother riley skinner which is something to note for the future. Just 30 first downs in the game but they did combine for 650 yards or so. Some of that happened right at the end though and two td were scored in the last 4 minutes , so have to feel pretty good about this bet. Again was a small lean coupled with weather and not a strong opinion. Actually my lean on the under was based on wake stopping the option and they did a terrible job of tht in the first half before finally cracking down in the second. Benefited from some timely turnovers in this one as well and dodged overtime which is always important in under bet scenarios.

West Virginia -17 winner -- still angry about this number and the squares and I managed to collect the bet. It was domination by west Virginia. The marshall teams only points were from a fumbled punt at the wvu 6 yard line that they turned into a fg. Thought the marshall receivers did a terrible job in this game as they had some opportunities and dropped some balls. Also thought the marshall runners missed some holes. Still the statline is domination 26 fd vs. 13 for marshall , 493 yards vs. 158 for marshall. Really felt both teams left some points on the field and I actually won a turnover battle in a game that I bet ( 3-2 )!!!! Might be being hard on myself as the game really should have been worse than the 27-3 final … maybe still mad at myself for the bad number.

Kent +17 loser-- another game where I got severely the worst of it. Grats to those of you who got the 21.5 and higher and cashed and what a bad beat for those that +20 or +21 as the PAT was blocked on kents last td. I have no problem with this bet. I think from a line value standpoint it is one of the best that I will make this year. Ballst had a 26-18 fd edge and 423 -353 yardage edge. I don’t mind taking my chances with those numbers at +17 or more. Throw in that ballst basically had to play perfect football. They committed zero turnovers and just one penalty in the game. Kent st actually averaged more yards per play than ballst in this game. Line was crazy stupid and as with most mac games where I bet against stupid , crazy lines , I lost the game. Until I know for a fact that there are shennanigans , I will assume this was a good bet. And lets face it … when a line is off as much as this one and it still gets steamed , you have to wonder.

Virnia/duke under 44 winner --just 33 fd and just 568 yards of offense combined. 3-3 halftime score. Barring overtime this thing wasn’t going over. Second half injuries to Virginia defense aided the duke cause… and once duke found a rhythm and Virginia fell behind and had to throw more … the rout was on. 31-1 final. Again this was a game wehre I had a lean to the under but really only made my card because of possible weather. Went 3-1 in those with the worst weather game presenting the only over. Go figure.

Oklahoma state -17 winner -- team likes to pile it on at home and they had a chip on their shoulder. 35 first downs and over 600 yards of offense and benefited from +3 in turnovers … amazing how much better I do when I win those turnover battles. Small sweat when it was cut to 21 point lead early fourht qtr but cowboys piled it on as I expected given the situation and won 55-24

Louisville -3 loser -- just cant complain about how I capped the game. Was the vitim of two qb injuries , one to lorenzen that got him out of the game which hurt me and one to cantwell ( 3<SUP>rd</SUP> or 4<SUP>th</SUP> rounder in nfl ? With that windup ? ) . Ville had over 200 yards pasing I think in the first half and scored on cantwells first drive of the second half before he got hurt. Ville had key false start penalties on second/third and 1 situations that stymied drives and extended uconn td drive when they stopped them on 3<SUP>rd</SUP> down on uconn side of midfield only to rough the passer. Wanted to show the box score … because I want to point out how clearly the ville is the right side. Feel free to compare it to the Arkansas at Texas box score above. Texas won 52-10 , ville lost 26-21. Here it is…
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left></TD><TD>

</TD><TD>

</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>23</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency







</TD><TD>5-12</TD><TD>6-13</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency







</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>0-3</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>279</TD><TD>508</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>122</TD><TD>247</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att







</TD><TD>10-20</TD><TD>17-30</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass







</TD><TD>6.1</TD><TD>8.2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>157</TD><TD>261</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts







</TD><TD>42</TD><TD>41</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush







</TD><TD>3.7</TD><TD>6.4</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>6-40</TD><TD>7-60</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost







</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown







</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>28:54</TD><TD>31:06</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



Msu/indy over 48.5 winner -- happy with all of my work concerning this game. I got a good number compared to close and it was over before halftime. 970 yards of total offense on a game lined under 50 points . Yummy.

Nevada +4 winner -- went exactly as capped on several levels. The Nevada attack on unlv defense was exactly as predicted and they never accounted for wolfpack qb in the running game. The spot was actually evident to the naked eye as Nevada played like a team that needed the win and unlv played like a fat cat content with previous two weeks of success. Wolfe torched the Nevada secondary and I would look to play teams with good passing attacks and solid rush defenses against Nevada and conversely I would look to play Nevada vs. running teams with bad rush defense. Nevada had 9 more first downs and 240 yards more of offense. Usually equates to a blowout unless uconn is playing.

Unc/miamifl --winner/loser -- juiced out when I got off the bet after Yates injury was announced. As it turns out I would have won if I just kept the bet. I have no regrets here , though I was mad about that situation a good part of the week as I hate giving away money to the books. Hard enough to beat these guys with the smallest of edges.

Regrets of the week -- Maryland should have been on my card. Fundamentals pointed to a very close game here and I think I let a really solid bet slip away. Quite frankly , off the top of my head , I cant remember what kept me off of them. Also regret that I didn’t play ole miss. Florida hasn’t played a really good sixty minutes of football yet. I am sure Arkansas will solve that problem for them next week. I lost a good bet with Hawaii against them and a really well capped bet with miamifl against them ( nice fg urban ) and I had also lost a bet on Tennessee against them when the vols shit the bed the first half of the first quarter. So I jus felt snakebit and it was a rare occasion where I think I let some emotion dictate where my money did or did not go. Logic and fundamentals are strength for me in gambling but I have my bad moments…I consider a lack of bet on ole miss to be one of those. Some other games like VATECH should probably have made the card as well. Easy to say after the fact of course but I might have left some money on the table. Hard to believe since I think I had more money in play this past Saturday than any in my history.
Onto this week.


Locked in :
penn state -12.5 ( cris )
eastern michigan + 22 ( leroys )
illinois +3 ( leroys )
tulsa -13.5 ( cris )
iowa + 10 ( leroys )
Tennessee -15 ( Cris )
emich/bgsu over 54.5
ohio/wmich over 50.5
rutgers/wvu over 44.5
temple/miamioh over 39
wyo/unm under 44
cincy/marshall under 52.5
Middles/teasers/parlays/traps/etc
$50 ml parlay iowa +300 with emich +1000 to win $2150

Strong leans:

iowa +9.5 added sept 30
penn state -12 added sept 29
vandy +4.5 eliminated sept 30
illinois +2 added sept 29
eastern michigan +21 ( great another shady mac line ) added sept 29
Arizona -19 eliminated sept 30
tennessee -16 added sept 30
wisconsin +3 -- what am i missing ?
tulsa -13.5 added sept 19

Talk me off leans:

indiana +7.5
maryland -13.5 elimianted sept 30
colorado +14 eliminated sept 30
arizona st +9.5
florida -23 eliminated sept 30
s carolina +2 eliminated sept 30
iowa st +13 eliminated sept 30
oklahoma st -24 ( another one i just cant see me betting at this number but they are going to win by 27-31 ) eliminated sept 30
oregon +17 eliminated sept 30
byu -28 eliminated sept 30

 

[JPicks]

Nice work last week Kyle. I personally regret not betting on Houston. Might have been the sharpest play of the week. Can I get your opinion on Nevada/Idaho sometime this week. Or if you can tell me how Nevada doesn't have 500 yards rushing that would also work.

 

[RetroVK]

Nice work last week Kyle. I personally regret not betting on Houston. Might have been the sharpest play of the week. Can I get your opinion on Nevada/Idaho sometime this week. Or if you can tell me how Nevada doesn't have 500 yards rushing that would also work.

ceiling collapse in idaho is the only way nevada doesnt rush for a million yards.

conf usa is my weakest conference these days .. well other than the mac .... i cap the mac and follow the mca closely but somehow that conference bites me in the arse anyway. so while i agree that houston was the play and the sharp play .. i dont regret it as much as the ones that i knew were good and stayed away from.

i will give thoughts on the nevada/idaho game later in the week but it is a great matchup for wolfpack and a bad one for the vandals. nevada weakness is pass defense ..... strength is rush defense ... not good for idaho.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Arkansas is an embarrassment to the SEC this year.

 

[tendog]

thanks Kyle, and bol this week--posted this am in your old thread but it isnt there--at least as I can see. Anyway all the work and thoughts greatly appreciated!

 

[RetroVK]

I locked in my first plays of the week this morning.

penn state -12.5 -- In discussions with some other cappers we all agreed about this game .... we all agreed that every sucker and every donkey in the universe are going to be on penn state in a bad spot between illinois at home and wisconsin on the road. We all agreed that playing DD road favorites in conference is a fast way to deplete your bankroll.... and i think we also all agreed that this was a good play up to 13 points. Sometimes the donkeys are on the right side and i think this game qualifies. Purdue defense is just an atrocity. Will provide thoughts on this game later in the week but i think penn st as a big ten school needs style points after big ten last few showings in title game. if penn st doesnt show up due to sandwich we can always fall back on purdue finding a way for lions to cover anyway. Due to the fact that i think its a donkey play and the fact that i dont think many sharps will be looking at the purdue side either , i think the line goes nowhere but up and had to play it at 12.5 before the 13's started popping up.

illinois +3 -- line actually seems to be moving upward and maybe there would be a 3.5 or 4 later in the week but seeing the only 3 around this morning at leroys , and liking the game , i just went ahead and took the points. Another game where the betting value is probably in the moneyline more than the + points at under 4.5..... but there is also some value to a 3 when there is a sea of 2.5 out there. Another game where i will share thoughts later in the week.

eastern michigan +22 -- Really like this game and i will likely ( actually i will have a ml bet on emich here in some capacity ) have a itsy bitsy teeny weeny bet on the ml here as well. BGSU is a little bit overrated i think due to big year last year and win over pitt early this year. E michigan is not as bad as record indicates and the final score from last weeks game is not indicative of the game itself. This is another of those shady mac lines that make no logical sense. I don't tend to do well in those spots but i have no problem betting into what i see as a bad line. ....... it's our job as cappers.

Have a lot of games that i like this week , again and it will be tough to sift through it all. Realize that the site is currently having some server issues but just keep refreshing or using the F5 key and help me have a great thread this week with good info for us all to take away and win money with.

 

[RambleOn]

Ole Miss didn't even make the "talk me off" ??????

 

[RetroVK]

Ole Miss didn't even make the "talk me off" ??????

looking at the dog if i can get 4 or more actually,

OLE MISS off of humongous win .... that hurts them and helps scarolina focus. Game should be low scoring and think the points have more value in those types of games.

I have a hard time backing scarolina right now as they just cant seem to ever finish a drive. Hard to get up this many weeks in a row... ole miss has played a tough schedule and at some point they let down a little bit. I don't think vandy was a big letdown game from them .. they should have won that game and the linesmakers seem confident that vandy is for real ( see auburn line this week ).


I have a little concern that the atmosphere in mississippi will be more intense than ever in what is already an underrated HFA. Dog or nothing for me in this game. Seem to be betting olemiss so far so maybe i do get the number.

know you love your rebs' and know that you have a good understanding of the team.... just think this is a tough spot for them following the big win.

 

[spooks]

I like to read your threads.....good info!!

Thoughts on ASU+9.5? I see you had it on "Talk Me Off..."

ASU playing in Cal, while coming off a bye. Cal still look like it has some offensive issues at the QB position. Riley went back to his old ways and in comes Longshore. These QBs are looking to out play each other to see who will start the next game...IMO. Yahvid Best got hurt and it looks like he will not play this Saturday...according to RJ's thread. I do realize that ASU is in a tough spot playing at Cal this week, then playing at USC next week. If it wasn't for the 2 SPT and 1 INT returns, Cal would only have 3 offensive TDs. Also looking at the box score, CSU put put up 225 yards in the air and 127 yards on the ground over a total of a whopping 82 plays. CSU also won TOP with 36:06 vs. 23:54.

Love to hear what you think of this game? I'm not settled on Cal's offensive struggles, QB controversey and the potential of Best not playing.....

Thanks

 

[RetroVK]

I like to read your threads.....good info!!

Thoughts on ASU+9.5? I see you had it on "Talk Me Off..."

ASU playing in Cal, while coming off a bye. Cal still look like it has some offensive issues at the QB position. Riley went back to his old ways and in comes Longshore. These QBs are looking to out play each other to see who will start the next game...IMO. Yahvid Best got hurt and it looks like he will not play this Saturday...according to RJ's thread. I do realize that ASU is in a tough spot playing at Cal this week, then playing at USC next week. If it wasn't for the 2 SPT and 1 INT returns, Cal would only have 3 offensive TDs. Also looking at the box score, CSU put put up 225 yards in the air and 127 yards on the ground over a total of a whopping 82 plays. CSU also won TOP with 36:06 vs. 23:54.

Love to hear what you think of this game? I'm not settled on Cal's offensive struggles, QB controversey and the potential of Best not playing.....

Thanks

My reasoning is very similar to yours.

Cal scored several non-offensive td last week against CSU , so the final score was deceiving as far as offensive output was concerned. And I have a really hard time at this point having faith in the CAL defense as well.

402 yards 321 in the air to msu
167 yards 110 in the air to wsu ( beat down. )
297 yards 156 in the air to md ( md big lead shut down their offense a little )
351 yards 226 in the air to csu

So it appears the pass defense is struggling and in comes rudy carpenter.

ESPN is reporting he is done for the year with a hip injury... Best that is.

Cal played two qb last week , rarely a good sign and face probably the best defense they have encountered to date this week with sun devils.

I am not worried about the spot for ASU at all . in fact i think it is a decent spot. They are coming off a loss and a bye sitting at 2-2 ... they have already done the lookahead thing ... so i think they realize importance of this game. I mean from their perspective a loss here means a likely 2-4 start to the year and they still have road trips to oregon st and instate rival arizona as well as a tough home game vs oregon. This team has to be focused or fear actually missing out on bowl eligibility which didn't even seem possible in the preseason.

I like games where the team i bet on has the coaching edge ( erickson vs tedford ) and the qb edge ( carpenter vs riley/longshore ).

I am actually concerned about CAL's psyche at this point. They lose the game to maryland and then follow it up the next week with shuffling qb's and an injury to their star rb where it looks like he is done for the season.

ASU is still a quality club and i just think this many points is begging for a cover for the sun devils .... in a game where they have an extra week to prepare and motivation.

The two things that I don't envision are 20+ point wins for either team.

too many points ... need to look closer at a few things.

 

[broadwayjoe]

i like emu kyle, i'd probably lean the other way on both your big10 plays, but see plenty of reasons why you would like both and am not going to be on the other side of either.

i like tenn, tulsa, and iowa. i would like to hear your vandy thoughts as i was leaning auburn and the only reasons i didn't play it was because of my misrating of vandy and because i couldn't find many reasons on paper to take vandy...i would also like to hear your wisconsin thoughts. i can see why on this one as i had this one on my radar since before the season started, but i have very different thoughts of how the bucks perform for the rest of the year after the qb move, and i think they match up well here.

already played colorado. interested to hear your take on your team here.

no real lean either way on the others, but i do think ole miss is the real deal and am not ready to fade them even when expecting the letdown, asu looks good ..conf dd, how can one want to fade byu here, oregon looks good ..conf dd (also thought i heard that usc only beats conf opponents by about 7 ppg, and non-conference by 20ppg +...i think it was...which is astounding)

 

[RambleOn]

looking at the dog if i can get 4 or more actually,

OLE MISS off of humongous win .... that hurts them and helps scarolina focus. Game should be low scoring and think the points have more value in those types of games.

I have a hard time backing scarolina right now as they just cant seem to ever finish a drive. Hard to get up this many weeks in a row... ole miss has played a tough schedule and at some point they let down a little bit. I don't think vandy was a big letdown game from them .. they should have won that game and the linesmakers seem confident that vandy is for real ( see auburn line this week ).


I have a little concern that the atmosphere in mississippi will be more intense than ever in what is already an underrated HFA. Dog or nothing for me in this game. Seem to be betting olemiss so far so maybe i do get the number.

know you love your rebs' and know that you have a good understanding of the team.... just think this is a tough spot for them following the big win.

Fair enough. I do want to make one point in your thread, and I said the same thing to ETG. We always play Florida close, regardless of the talent-level of our team. This decade, Florida has beat us ONE time, by SIX, and that was last year. This guys know they play Florida close every year. I can promise you that the win was less surprising to them than it is to you. Don't bet Ole Miss, fine, but please don't waste your money on SC at anything less than 6. Please, Kyle.

 

[RetroVK]

i like emu kyle, i'd probably lean the other way on both your big10 plays, but see plenty of reasons why you would like both and am not going to be on the other side of either.

i like tenn, tulsa, and iowa. i would like to hear your vandy thoughts as i was leaning auburn and the only reasons i didn't play it was because of my misrating of vandy and because i couldn't find many reasons on paper to take vandy...i would also like to hear your wisconsin thoughts. i can see why on this one as i had this one on my radar since before the season started, but i have very different thoughts of how the bucks perform for the rest of the year after the qb move, and i think they match up well here.

already played colorado. interested to hear your take on your team here.

no real lean either way on the others, but i do think ole miss is the real deal and am not ready to fade them even when expecting the letdown, asu looks good ..conf dd, how can one want to fade byu here, oregon looks good ..conf dd (also thought i heard that usc only beats conf opponents by about 7 ppg, and non-conference by 20ppg +...i think it was...which is astounding)

Big Ten is sort of the opposite of the MAC for me .. I always seem to do well each year in betting big ten games.

I like illinois to win the game fairly convincingly .. 7-10 points. I will have a break down of that game later in the week. A nice little matchup on paper in my opinion.

I can understand not wanting to bet penn state. DD conf road fav is a moneyburner. i have emperical evidence that shows this game should land around 20. Again i will get my thoughts on this play out later in the week.

I find the tennessee line puzzling at best. I think I can prove that the line is off using logical analysis of previous lines. I like the spot for Tennessee as well , despite what looks like a sandwich on paper in the preseason. I don't think that applies for this game.

tulsa is a team i am still studying and confusa is the conference i know the least about i think. A capper whose judgement i really trust has been pimping tulsa to me so i am giving it a very hard look. Rice has been taking a lot of money each week and the 77 points last week has given us a more reasonable line for this game. Two great offenses , one terrible defense.

i am playing iowa. just waiting as it sits 9/9.5 and if i can manage a 10 for this game i would go nuts. I was looking to play iowa here at a much lower number ..... but thenumber came out huge and i will be all over the hawkeyes here. so that one is a strong lean but in reality it will be a play.

aubrun is coming of a few emotional games with the 3-2 game ,the lsu dramatic game and the 14-12 tennessee game. This team has to be spent a little and despite vandys start auburn cant help but take them a little lightly. While auburn is 4-1 and the defense is nothing short of dominant , this will be just their second road game this year and when/if they score a td in vanderbilt ... it will be their first road td of the year. points should be at a premium which makes me like the points vandy gets here , crowd should be as good as vandy can muster at this point and the 'Dores are coming off a bye week where they could prepare for the Auburn new spread looks. Throw in the incredibly good matchup for vandy secondary vs auburn wr and i just think we see a game where the winner doesn't score more than 23-24 points .... and in those games i prefer taking the points. Auburn defense has faced a lot of pocket QB's lately as well and the commodore kid could give them more to think about. The big concern i am having with this particular play is that by power rating this can't be a good bet. So i have some conflicts with it but that is sort of how i am looking at the game.....

will try to get better thoughts into the thread regarding all those above and a few of the others as well.

Help talk me off maryland. i already have a dd road favorite ..... if i had two in the same week i might start eating hay and making hee haw noises.

 

[RetroVK]

Fair enough. I do want to make one point in your thread, and I said the same thing to ETG. We always play Florida close, regardless of the talent-level of our team. This decade, Florida has beat us ONE time, by SIX, and that was last year. This guys know they play Florida close every year. I can promise you that the win was less surprising to them than it is to you. Don't bet Ole Miss, fine, but please don't waste your money on SC at anything less than 6. Please, Kyle.

Well let me ask you this.... since it is the basic premise of which i like scarolina at 4 or more .... how many points do you think ole miss scores in this game ?? And how do they go about attacking this gamecock defense ??

 

[Blue_Chip]

On Penn St as well

Get passed the number on Okla St. If you think they win by 27-31, that would call for a bet on Okla St -24. I realize this is a huge spread to cover, and in conference play no less, but I agree that the Aggies cannot hang within four TDs of the Cowboys. Remember, OSU is coached by a man, who is now 41... that extra year of experience has me on Okla St -24 and a little at -25

 

[JPicks]

Out of my arena, but I see Tulsa winning fairly easy. If Rice can't get to the 40's in this one, and I don't think they do, they won't have a chance of being within 2 TD's. 4th road game in 5 weeks for the Owls while Tulsa is home for their third straight home game. In a shootout I'd take the team who hasn't been flying all over the country for the last month +.

 

[RetroVK]

On Penn St as well

Get passed the number on Okla St. If you think they win by 27-31, that would call for a bet on Okla St -24. I realize this is a huge spread to cover, and in conference play no less, but I agree that the Aggies cannot hang within four TDs of the Cowboys. Remember, OSU is coached by a man, who is now 41... that extra year of experience has me on Okla St -24 and a little at -25

i agree with you. i should be able to look past the number but when originally looking at this game , i was thinking it would be more in the 17-20 range. amazing what a bad game against Army can do to a line. Oklahoma st played perfect offense last week and was up 21 in the fourth quarter at one point ... i was laying 17... and that is what i hate about the big spreads. I also liked CAL last week too and allowed the number to scare me off , which i am happy about on some levels after reviewing the game but also upset that i missed a cash.

You are going to win that okie st bet BC ... i just need to :balls:
and lay the number. Might use in an exotic of some kind too.

Not sure..... TAMU is bad , bad though.

 

[RetroVK]

Out of my arena, but I see Tulsa winning fairly easy. If Rice can't get to the 40's in this one, and I don't think they do, they won't have a chance of being within 2 TD's. 4th road game in 5 weeks for the Owls while Tulsa is home for their third straight home game. In a shootout I'd take the team who hasn't been flying all over the country for the last month +.

i bet it at bookmaker/cris

ADDED tulsa -13.5 ( cris )

 

[RambleOn]

Well let me ask you this.... since it is the basic premise of which i like scarolina at 4 or more .... how many points do you think ole miss scores in this game ?? And how do they go about attacking this gamecock defense ??

I'm not a great capper when it comes to matchups, so I'm going to just have to tell you my take. I think Ole Miss rush defense is gonna shut SC down. They had trouble running the ball at Vandy (only 92 yards) and are only averaging 122 ypg on the season (92nd in nation). The Rebel Defensive line is probably the most talented group on the team. They play hard and are getting better and better every week, as you can see by what happened in the Florida game. We are going to put pressure on them all day and make them one-dimensional there.

Meanwhile the Rebel offense is clicking on all cylinders. I honestly LOVE Houston Nutt's play calling and I think at very least the Wild Rebel and our speed out of the backfield is gonna hurt SC. We obviously know about SC's defense - only allowing 224 yards per game. We have to give them credit but who have they really played? Vandy (112th in total yards), NC State (113th), UAB (59th), UGA (29th), and Wofford (who knows). Their defense is stout but I think we can exploit it. The Rebs are 45th in the nation in rushing offense and 60th in passing offense.

If we can make SC one-dimensional and control the LOS, which I think we do, we win the game.

In the end, all the stats really don't matter. I know you think this is a letdown but I don't see how thats possible. This team is 65-13 on Homecoming and have won the last 11 HC's. SC is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 and Ole Miss is 8-3-1 in their last 12 at home. Ole Miss is going for their first back to back SEC victory since 2004. They just beat a Florida team who they always play close and finally got the Mouse off their back beating a ranked opponent. Now they return home on a crazy high and have a couch like Nutt to keep them grounded. I'll quit talking about this.

To answer your question, I think we get at least 24 points and probably closer to 30. SC gets 17. GL with what you decide. :shake:

 

[RetroVK]

I'm not a great capper when it comes to matchups, so I'm going to just have to tell you my take. I think Ole Miss rush defense is gonna shut SC down. They had trouble running the ball at Vandy (only 92 yards) and are only averaging 122 ypg on the season (92nd in nation). The Rebel Defensive line is probably the most talented group on the team. They play hard and are getting better and better every week, as you can see by what happened in the Florida game. We are going to put pressure on them all day and make them one-dimensional there.

Meanwhile the Rebel offense is clicking on all cylinders. I honestly LOVE Houston Nutt's play calling and I think at very least the Wild Rebel and our speed out of the backfield is gonna hurt SC. We obviously know about SC's defense - only allowing 224 yards per game. We have to give them credit but who have they really played? Vandy (112th in total yards), NC State (113th), UAB (59th), UGA (29th), and Wofford (who knows). Their defense is stout but I think we can exploit it. The Rebs are 45th in the nation in rushing offense and 60th in passing offense.

If we can make SC one-dimensional and control the LOS, which I think we do, we win the game.

In the end, all the stats really don't matter. I know you think this is a letdown but I don't see how thats possible. This team is 65-13 on Homecoming and have won the last 11 HC's. SC is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 and Ole Miss is 8-3-1 in their last 12 at home. Ole Miss is going for their first back to back SEC victory since 2004. They just beat a Florida team who they always play close and finally got the Mouse off their back beating a ranked opponent. Now they return home on a crazy high and have a couch like Nutt to keep them grounded. I'll quit talking about this.

To answer your question, I think we get at least 24 points and probably closer to 30. SC gets 17. GL with what you decide. :shake:

good information and input .. I appreciate it.

Game has to hit 4 for me to play it anyway. And i doubt i see that. Just wanted to hear your perspective on it and why you think ole miss is the play. You definitely did that.

I will say that i won't be shocked if ole miss wins ,,, at all ... but i would be shocked if it was because they scored 30 or more.

under might be worth a look here, too imo.

 

[nawlins51]

Good info Kyle and read.Gl this week buddy.

 

[pags11]

kyle,

great thread as usual...trying to pick up some Tulsa -14 at plus juice myself...keep truckin' brother...

 

[Aztec4Life]

GL this week brotha! Leaning heavily to Illinois myself.

:cheers:

 

[Aztec4Life]

You lean BYU this week? I'm already on them...

:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

You lean BYU this week? I'm already on them...

:shake:

Yeah i lean byu ... again i despise laying these huge numbers but i am having a hard time envisioning the scenario where byu wins by less than that .....

 

[texasfight]

Allow me to talk you off CU. They'll suit up just 7 scholarship Olinemen this weekend after losing bellcow starting RT Ryan Miller to a broken leg. They'll start two redshirt freshman on the right side of the oline now. They'll go up against the best pass rushing front 7 I've ever seen at Texas. Hawkins rates to be 50/50 on whether he can escape this ballgame without injury.

Offensively, fozzy whitaker and his 6 ypc average are back. His quickness allows Texas to take advantage of the lack of speed CU has on the edge defensively. This lack of speed will also be exposed in the passing game given Colt should have all day to throw. I like Texas to win comfortably here. I also fully expect them to continue to get virtually zero respect by the media and public in general.

 

[broadwayjoe]

whittaker got 6 ypc against utep; something you and i could just about do. i think you're underrating colorado's front 7...they just dealt with 2 very quick backs in the wvu game at home just fine. i agree texas will have success in the passing game, but so will colorado. and i think that number 5 in the polls is getting respect by the media and public...that along with a 14 point line in a tough place to play when they've only beat baylor, rice, and iowa state on the road by more than that margin in the last three years is showing them more than deserved respect imo...they win this game, but i don't think comfortably, and i don't think they'll have the advantages that you are confident they will have in the trenches. something i'll be watching for, but i just don't see it. gl to ya this week texasfight

 

[nawlins51]

Kyle just locked in Penn State.I expect it to go above 14 by gametime.

As for you other leans I am leaning myself on Wisconsin ML,and Iowa+10.

 

[Morphius]

BOL this week Kyle

 

[RetroVK]

Allow me to talk you off CU. They'll suit up just 7 scholarship Olinemen this weekend after losing bellcow starting RT Ryan Miller to a broken leg. They'll start two redshirt freshman on the right side of the oline now. They'll go up against the best pass rushing front 7 I've ever seen at Texas. Hawkins rates to be 50/50 on whether he can escape this ballgame without injury.

Offensively, fozzy whitaker and his 6 ypc average are back. His quickness allows Texas to take advantage of the lack of speed CU has on the edge defensively. This lack of speed will also be exposed in the passing game given Colt should have all day to throw. I like Texas to win comfortably here. I also fully expect them to continue to get virtually zero respect by the media and public in general.

Eliminated colorado today. thanks bud.

 

[RetroVK]

whittaker got 6 ypc against utep; something you and i could just about do. i think you're underrating colorado's front 7...they just dealt with 2 very quick backs in the wvu game at home just fine. i agree texas will have success in the passing game, but so will colorado. and i think that number 5 in the polls is getting respect by the media and public...that along with a 14 point line in a tough place to play when they've only beat baylor, rice, and iowa state on the road by more than that margin in the last three years is showing them more than deserved respect imo...they win this game, but i don't think comfortably, and i don't think they'll have the advantages that you are confident they will have in the trenches. something i'll be watching for, but i just don't see it. gl to ya this week texasfight

had similar thoughts but just staying away.... trying to avoid getting my money involved against these covering machines.

Over the last five years Texasfight has made and/or saved me a lot of money when it comes to Texas football. Wasn't likely to make my plays list but i also have a hard time seeing texas up more than 20 late which is what i would need to even consider the longhorn side at -14 or so.

Would think that texas is more up for this game than any previously played as well. And while i agree with the question "what has texas proven? " i also think we can ask the same of colorado. They outgained eastern washington by a yard at home and gave up over 300 on the ground to wvu at home....and 259 yards rushing to fsu ???????

colorado or nothing for me and it looks like nothing. I can't argue hard against a colorado play though ... it cant be that bad of a bet at this number.

 

[RetroVK]

As stated above .. eliinated colorado , iowa state and florida as possible plays

 

[RetroVK]

Ok , I have been a busy boy today and want to give a blurb on all my activity.

i added the following ..

iowa + 10
Tennessee -15
emich/bgsu over 54.5
ohio/wmich over 50.5
rutgers/wvu over 44.5
temple/miamioh over 39
wyo/unm under 44
cincy/marshall under 52.5
moneyline parlay $50 to win $2150 iowa +300/emich +1000

i eliminated vanderbilt , okie st , arizona , maryland , colorado , florida , scarolina , iowa st oregon and byu

remaining leans ASU , indiana and wisconsin


here are quick thoughts on each play and the deciding reason that i did not play the eliminated leans.......

iowa +10 -- managed to get a great number as my buddy drove down to leroys for me. Thanks matt. Game is lined at 44 total points. Teams are familiar with each other and iowa defense is custom made to stop what michigan state likes to do offensively , which is pound you with ringer. Michigan state defense has looked very vulnerable this year to me.

Cal -- 22 fd and 467 total yards
emich -- 11 fd 342 total yards
FAU - 9 fd and 225 yards
notre dame 18 fd 258 yards
indiana 19 fd and 473 yards

A couple notes form above list ... emich just had some big plays but the FAU game was played in horrific weather conditions.

Against anything resembling quality they have given it up to an extent. And now they face the best defense they have seen all year in iowa and i just don't think they score enough to warrant laying a number this big. I like iowa coming off back to back close losses and look for them to be inspired here. In the two losses they were probably the better team and just found a way to lose. they had 19 fd vs pitts 13 and a 102 yard advantage and they had more fd and yardage than northwestern last week in defeat despite being minus 4 in turnovers in a 5 point loss. As i mentioned in a previous thread , i like it when the turnovers are fumbles and 4 of iowas 5 turnovers were fumbles in that game. fumbles tend to be more flukish and less systemic than interceptions.

just too many points and iowa rush defense is a solid counterbalance to ringer attack.

Tennessee -15 -- similar bet to my wvu bet last week. Have a game that would ahve been lined in the 24-26 point range a few short weeks ago and now i get it at 15 ... and keep in mind when it was going to be lined at 24-26 it would be in what most would consider a bad spot. But at 1-3 there is no way that this team doesn't come out and smack nilly. I also liek it when a team comes off a game against a great defense like auburns and then gets a mediocre or worse defense the next week. Have an offense with something to prove and a defense that shouldn't stop them. There is another angle that i like here and that is that the vols are LIKELY to run it up. Fulmer is looking at both QB's this week and that means throwing in the late third quarter and fourth quarter when the game is in hand. Tennessee coming off anemic offensive performance because of opponent last week and northern illinois coming off one of the most deceiving finals of the weekend at 37-0 win over emich in a game where they had just 2 more fd and just 80 more yards of offense. Northern illinois defense has been protected a little the last two weeks but will have to spend a lot more time on the field in this game. Going to be an angry crowd and a hungry tennessee team. love the line value and the situation.

emich/bgsu over 54.5 -- bottom line to this bet is that i like the 21 point dog in this game to score points. they had 27 fd against bgsu last year and return the same basic team while bgsu looks a little weaker to me this year compared to last. Schmitt is back quarterbacking and should be in a better rhythm and as mentioned in the tennessee comments , the shutout last week vs northern illy was deceiving. I think this is a very competitive game and i think that emu has a chance to win straight up. E mich offense should be getting better each week and matches up well with bgsu defense. The falcons are going to get theirs at home in this game and i believe that emich offensive success makes bgsu forced to answer. thought this game should have come out at 60 or so.

ohio/wmich over 50.5 -- Get line value based on wmich/temple game last week. Envision a game similar to ohio/cmich. a value play. Did anyoen see the wmich/temple game ?? assumign there were weather issues since the game was at temple and the east coast got hit up there. let me know .. thought he bet is already locked in...

rutgers/wvu over 44.5 -- don't get this line. have you see rutgers rush defense ?? Rutgers offense getting no respect here. Think about what this line means ..... at a 14 point spread they are saying rutgers gets 15 points in this game. Seems too low to me. Watched the entirety of wvu last week and while impressed with their offense returning to form somewhat , i also thought that marshall left a lot of plays on the field. I like mike teel for overs ... he completes long passes and gives up interceptions ... big plays are good for overs. Last few times these teams have met in morgantown it has been high scoring. WEst virginia home games are very high scoring historically and i look for that to continue. WAY too much big play potential for this to go under the number.

temple/miamioh over 39 -- Another line value play. Overreaction to last weeks wmich game imo and every temple game this year that wasnt played in rain got to atleast 40 points ... even army. The new qb has more experience now and should have more command of offense. Miamioh gets some defensive relief here after having some success moving the ball against high quality defenses of vandy , michigan and cincinnati. i dont see a shootout by any means but there are a lot of ways to go over 39 in college football.

wyo/unm under 44 -- just like the matchup here. Wyoming simply struggles to score on anyone ... that offense is atrocious and in their lone away game this year they were shutout. I love how wyoming matches up with unm running game with ferguson though and think they can contain him somewhat. If wyoming doesn't give up a score to the unm defense ( they will try as they have not won a game ATS in their last 14 games ) i think this will be very low scoring. Shortening the game is wyomings only chance but do ahv econcerns that wyoming lame duck coach opens it up this week with nothing to lose.

cincy/marshall under 52.5 -- don't really get this line. Neither team rates to make big plays in this game. Kelly has hinted at managing the game as he is down to fourth stringers at the qb position. Bearcat defense is the kind that makes you drive the field as marshall showed last week and most of the season , they eventually make a mistake ... a penalty , a turnover , a botched fg , a bad pass , a dropped catch or a negative play. When cincy bogs down due to new qb issues they have HUBER to blast the punts to the other side of the field. i look for cincy to try and run a lot on marshall on the road and put the qb's ( several will see action ) in positions where they can succeed on third down. Cincy is a three point favorite ....... so they see cincy getting 28 ... i dont think so. defensive game and i dont think either team reaches 30 points. This line is off in my opinion.

i threw in a ml parlay with emich and iowa for 50 bucks to win 2,150 bucks. Just like both teams chances to win this week and i dont mind betting a longshot once in awhile. likely it loses ... but i dont need it to win many times. bgsu has shown ability to completely not show up sometimes.Will get to reasons for eliminations next post.

 

[JPicks]

damn. good shit Kyle. love that wyo/unm under. short fields are the only thing that keeps it from cashing.

 

[RetroVK]

i eliminated vanderbilt , okie st , arizona , maryland , colorado , florida , scarolina , iowa st oregon and byu

vanderbilt -- this is a case of my lying eyes vs my preseason work. What i have seen and boxscore analysis confirms it , points to a vanderbilt cover and possible outright win. Vanderbilt is in a great spot for this game situationally as well. I like the secondary of vandy vs auburn pass attack and i also kind of like that vandy has the mobile qb against all that speed on auburn defense. Auburn is a bad favorite folks. They simply dont explode for a ton of points offensively.... and they have yet to score a road td this year. The reason i eliminate it is because a few weeks ago i had vanderbilt as one of the bottom 40 teams in the nation by power rating. i was obviously wrong but there is a long way between that and beating a team i had in my top ten preseason straight up. And as i showed in previous thread , a very high percentage of the time that a dog covers 4.5 , they win SU. I think vandy is capable of that but from a line value standpoint i just cant do it ...scarolina game was kind of a gift wrapped perfect storm for them that they won and how disappointing have gamecocks been so far ?? ole miss fumbled going in or else vandy loses there as well. ( and actually the fact that they had just 11 FD vs ole miss concerns me when they face this auburn defense ). Otherwise , they hae beaten rice and miami ohio who are both average treams i guess. But thats the rub for me ......i am now asking a team that was a dog to miami ohio four weeks ago to beat auburn ... i just think i can find a better spot for my money. i must know 8 or 9 sharps that like vandy in this game and the early line move downward supports their position. i am not playing this game but if i were , i would wait until closer to gametime .. public should be on auburn here.

Arizona -- sitting around twiddling my thumbs and lost all my value when general public finally realized no jake locker this week. it just takes a ton for me to lay over 3 tds ... just hard to do and it is harder to do when i am considering a game ... am a bit wishy washy and then lose 3 points to the line move .... missed it but may revisit if washington money comes in .... which i cant see happening but who knows.

maryland -- not a team i generally trust to put it on people. They tend to be involved in tigher games. Certainly capable of crushing this particular virginia team and it wont surprise me when they do ... but eliminated because i dont want another dd road favorite in conference .. hehe hee haw hee haw. I see timh on maryland which makes me want to pull the trigger here but in decided to lay off. line isnt off enough for me .. i mean do i see maryland up 21 going into fourth ?? maybe but i dont feel great about that.

colorado -- mostly just dont like what they have done defending the rush and you have to be able to do that against texas ... TF knows the longhorns as well as anyone i know... pags mentioned colorado team speed issues to me and it was definitely evident last week where they made fsu look like they did back when they contended for titles. wvu win was lucky imo .... and since the csu game .... where have they really played well ? quality bcs school with a good coach and good qb receiving two tds at home though cant be overlooked ... tought o lay down but i did.


florida -- another favorite over 3 td ... snakebit in games involving this team. dont feel confident in them ... do feel confident in arkansas sucking donkey sacks though. just not laying these big numbers.

scarolina -- needed a 4 from the beginning. not gonna get it.

iowa st -- dont trust them. i cant beat kansas. i cant beat kansas. i cant beat kansas. so i am looking for value spots to bet on them and not against them. iowa state is the side on paper. another dd home dog and these guys performed well against competition at home downt he stretch last year. who am i kidding .. i cant beat kansas.

oregon -- lost line value .. still looks high but i lost what i wanted.

byu -- a fifth score to win ..as stated with others above and incoming okie state .. i just refuse to do it.

okie st -- lost line value as it went over the 24. played too perfect last week which makes me think they come down to earth a little this week and we lose line value with their impressive win over troy coupled with tamu lackluster game vs army. johnson starting for tamu which helps the okie st side imo but this is a lot of points for a conference game .. hate letting it go and maybe at the end of the year i will examine how i would have done laying some of these huge numbers on games i lean to... but it takes the extraordinary to make me do it ... about the best thing i see pointing me to this game is seeing pags and Bluechip liking it.

i still may use some of these in a teaser ...but barring a line move they are eliminated for me.

 

[E.T.G.]

nevada isn't even a lean?

 

[E.T.G.]

To answer your question, I think we get at least 24 points and probably closer to 30. SC gets 17. GL with what you decide. :shake:

I would be shocked if you guys sniff 30 points without the help of South Carolina turnovers. Now, if you score 30 because SC set you up on their own 20 yard line twice and you score 10 points directly off them, that won't shock me but scoring near 30 points without their help will shock me.

 

[RetroVK]

nevada isn't even a lean?

skipping record ... how many times do you want me to say i am not betting a favorite of over 3 td thsi week. ? hehe

they should score at will though ... literally at will.

 

[RetroVK]

I would be shocked if you guys sniff 30 points without the help of South Carolina turnovers. Now, if you score 30 because SC set you up on their own 20 yard line twice and you score 10 points directly off them, that won't shock me but scoring near 30 points without their help will shock me.

Agree with you as far as the point output from ole miss here. I just don't think scarolina defense has given a single indication this year that they rate to be dominated by ole miss.

 

[horses]

Would like to see a Illinois/Michigan write-up; not sure what you're seeing with the Illini on a 2nd str roadie. Their defense sucks and I think Michigan really found their groove in the 2nd half last week; I hope letdown isn't part of your angle cuz there won't be one.

I love that wyoming/NM under.

 

[broadwayjoe]

Help talk me off maryland. i already have a dd road favorite ..... if i had two in the same week i might start eating hay and making hee haw noises.

i see that you've eliminated this, and i agree with some of the stuff you said in your post. i can't see how maryland isn't overrated right now after the cal and clemson games. this line doesn't look off because of how bad virginia is, but from a line value, would this line be -14 before the season started? i don't know; it's not to say it shouldn't because clearly virginia was overrated to start the season, but maryland, who got beat by mtsu is only 6-7 pts worse than usc? i don't buy that, even with the travel for usc, etc...because i think virginia has had to have gotten better since week 1 having been so green, so that combats the travel points. it may be the right play, and i actually like it better than your penn st play, but you're not getting much value imo...value doesn't always matter, but it seems to be an important part of the way you cap, and if you're not getting much value in a play that involves laying double digits in a conference game that very few people would be interested in taking virginia because of how bad they are, it's a risky play imo. i can't make a good case for virginia--you are well aware of how bad i think they are as i've made that clear throughout the season, and part of the reason i lean md is partly due to the fact that they've already been humbled pretty hugely this season, but that doesn't necessarily mean it can't happen again. this is also a night espn game for a team that just got blown out against duke when they didn't play that awful in the 1half. this could be one of only 2 or 3 opportunities left for them to pick up a win, so i expect them to play desperate, and don't necessarily like to bet against desperate teams

 

[O-State]

-----Maryland has not been favored in conference play by more than 5 points since 2004. Virginia did out stat Duke despite getting killed. The game was 3-3 at halftime. Virginia has turnovers to blame. As stated, Maryland could blow them out but not a safe pick considering that's not Maryland's style inconference and going against a hungry Cav team at home under the lights.

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</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>16</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>304</TD><TD>258</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>194</TD><TD>174</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>110</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>6-41</TD><TD>3-35</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>3rd Down Conversions</TD><TD>5-15</TD><TD>8-17</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>4th Down Conversions</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>0-1</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>28:58</TD><TD>31:02</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[pags11]

vegaskyle,

good job grabbing a great number with Tulsa...:cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

Would like to see a Illinois/Michigan write-up; not sure what you're seeing with the Illini on a 2nd str roadie. Their defense sucks and I think Michigan really found their groove in the 2nd half last week; I hope letdown isn't part of your angle cuz there won't be one.

I love that wyoming/NM under.

Alright here is what i see with illinois at michigan.



Illinois appears to have some defensive issues on the surface .. they are giving up 182 yards a game on the ground and 202 yards a game through the air. BUT you also have to look at the level of competition these guys have faced offensively. missouri is ranked 2nd in the country in total offense , penn state is ranked 9th and ULL is ranked 15th. Here are the team averages of total offense vs their respective results vs illinois

missouri avgerage 595 ..... vs illinois 549
ull averages 464.5 ...........vs illinois 287
penn state averages 515 ...vs illinois 422

So as i look at this game i have to expect ... even with the bad stats that illinois has to date ... that they hold michigan well under their total yards average.

Illinois really hasnt been that bad vs the run either ,,,, their stats are skewed by the great game that penn state had vs them last week. ull and missouri were both held under 100 yards rushing for the game. Surprisingly where illinois has been weaker is in pass defense. I thought going into the year that their secondary looked pretty good on paper. But that is also the rub for me here .... michigan is 104th in the nation this year throwing the ball , averaging jsut 148 yards a game. They are simply not set up to take advantage of illinois by passing. RichRod is going to run his offense. And on paper , illinois matches up really well with this defensively .. with vontae davis on the outside the illini can eliminate the best wide receiver threat that michigan has. This should allow illinois to commit more men to stopping the run game that is the staple of the michigan offense.

These are the types of teams that illinois matches up well with in my opinion ... the ones who can't keep up with them in scoring. Teams that can trade scores like missouri , penn state and the like are going to give illinois trouble but michigan offense is in bottom ten in nation in total offense and bottom thirty in scoring offense ... major step down in offensive production for illini defense to contend with..... and this doesn't just mean less scoring for the opponent it means better field position on average for the offense.

Offensively i have little reason to believe ( there are some concerns about how well michigan defended illinois last year ) that illinois can't succeed enough to win the game. The most comaprable offense that michigan faced was utah and we all saw that game. Michigans problem with defense vs the spread offense was well documented last year while i do think they got better at it as the year went on. illinois is going to score on people and the way to beat them is to outscore them. I am not a huge juice fan and he is capable of making bad mistakes and bad throws at key moments but he has gotten better each year as well.

The spot here is also not much of a concern for me. Michigan is coming off of the big fourth quarter against wisconsin and while i dont think it creates a letdown , it does change the situation as far as desperation is concerned. Flat out , Illinois needs this game more. Illinois with a loss drops to 0-2 in conference in the year where they have the most expectations in the preseason for quite some time. They proved to me last week and vs missouri ( both in defeat ) that they can travel and still put out decent effort. And the homefield has not meant much to michigan this year ... they have played three games at home vs miamioh , utah and wisconsin and the wolverines have been out first downed in all three games. While i think utah is a better team right now that illinois is , this illinois team is faster than any that michigan has faced to date and will pose problems for them on both sides of the ball.

Unless michigan is able to somehow exploit one on one coverage from vontae davis with big plays from threet to odoms ( assuming that is who davis is going to try and take out of the game ) , then i just dont see michigan making enough offensive plays to keep up with illinois here.

michigan has been the victims of poor ball management with their fumbling and the like ... and i am a believer in that evening out over time ... but facing the fastest defense to date , seems like a tough spot for michigan to correct this issue.

illinois wins straight up i think

 

[RetroVK]

joe -- thanks for that post .. quality

o-state -- i watched every play of that game. two key defensive injuries for virginia made a big difference in the second half. i dont know the status of those two players for the maryland game.

pags -- thanks bud,.... always good to get props from arguably the best capper on the net.

 

[scdoggy]

INteresting take on the Illi/Michigan game. I felt the same way as Horses on that one buy you may be on to something. Also, Wisky handed the Wolverines that game last week more than Michigan earning it. May have turned me around on that one. Good points and good luck this weekend.

Brought back Sherman for ya, and he's pissed - Beans don't burn on the grill

 

[RetroVK]

INteresting take on the Illi/Michigan game. I felt the same way as Horses on that one buy you may be on to something. Also, Wisky handed the Wolverines that game last week more than Michigan earning it. May have turned me around on that one. Good points and good luck this weekend.

Brought back Sherman for ya, and he's pissed - Beans don't burn on the grill

movin on up !

thanks ... just posting my reasoning .. it doesn't make it right....

 

[spooks]

Thanks for insight on ASU/CAL game. I think I might play ASU +9 with Best being out. Though what concerns me is that ASU's kicker/punter has broken wrist and will be playing with a cast.

Link: http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/127164

Thomas Weber on Wednesday wore a cast on his left wrist after X-rays revealed a broken scaphoid bone, believed to have been suffered during a blocked punt in the game against Georgia on Sept.20.
The 2007 Lou Groza Award winner's kicking should not be affected, but he will need less-restrictive protection in order to catch the snap to punt. Weber's cast will be cut, or he will wear a splint.
"Coach (Dennis Erickson) will make his decision on what he thinks I'm capable of doing and how it affects the team," Weber said.
Trevor Hankins, a sophomore walk-on, is the backup punter.
The scaphoid bone is on the thumb side of the wrist and is often broken by stretching the hand out to protect against a fall. Weber did that on the second-quarter punt block by Georgia.
His wrist was swollen the next day, but initial X-rays revealed no break. Weber said he was told that because the bone is small, a fracture can be slow to show up.
"I've never had a kicker who has broken his wrist," Erickson said. "That will go in Chapter 14 of my book. You should read the first 13."


SPECIAL TEST
Weber and the ASU kicking game will be tested by California special teams that have scored four touchdowns - on two blocked punts, a blocked field goal and punt return - this season. The Sun Devils have had a kick blocked in two straight games.
"We'd better shore it up," Erickson said.
"We have to play like we are capable of. The punt we had blocked was something where we weren't focused on what we should have been doing. We took the wrong guy, and the guy got inside unblocked. That was a mental mistake, which can't happen."
Erickson praised long snapper Thomas Ohmart and Weber, who combine to get most punts off in less than two seconds.

​

 

[RetroVK]

Thanks for insight on ASU/CAL game. I think I might play ASU +9 with Best being out. Though what concerns me is that ASU's kicker/punter has broken wrist and will be playing with a cast.​

Link: http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/127164​

Thomas Weber on Wednesday wore a cast on his left wrist after X-rays revealed a broken scaphoid bone, believed to have been suffered during a blocked punt in the game against Georgia on Sept.20.
The 2007 Lou Groza Award winner's kicking should not be affected, but he will need less-restrictive protection in order to catch the snap to punt. Weber's cast will be cut, or he will wear a splint.
"Coach (Dennis Erickson) will make his decision on what he thinks I'm capable of doing and how it affects the team," Weber said.
Trevor Hankins, a sophomore walk-on, is the backup punter.
The scaphoid bone is on the thumb side of the wrist and is often broken by stretching the hand out to protect against a fall. Weber did that on the second-quarter punt block by Georgia.
His wrist was swollen the next day, but initial X-rays revealed no break. Weber said he was told that because the bone is small, a fracture can be slow to show up.
"I've never had a kicker who has broken his wrist," Erickson said. "That will go in Chapter 14 of my book. You should read the first 13."​

SPECIAL TEST
Weber and the ASU kicking game will be tested by California special teams that have scored four touchdowns - on two blocked punts, a blocked field goal and punt return - this season. The Sun Devils have had a kick blocked in two straight games.
"We'd better shore it up," Erickson said.
"We have to play like we are capable of. The punt we had blocked was something where we weren't focused on what we should have been doing. We took the wrong guy, and the guy got inside unblocked. That was a mental mistake, which can't happen."
Erickson praised long snapper Thomas Ohmart and Weber, who combine to get most punts off in less than two seconds.​

If call is smart they bring return man way up field. sun devils punter is likely to rush kicks ..so shorter kicks. ... if cal gets return man closer to line of scrimmage to field they could have a lot of success in return game ... let it bounce and who knows.

gl with asu ..

 

[B.A.R.]

Your doing my Michigan write-ups from now on.

Great point about the level of offenses the Illini have faced. Still not a good defense but not terrible. Like I said, its a bad pass defense but Michigan doesn't have the consistent downfield passing game to take advantage.