2008 cfb --time to post my week 6 card so far

Thanks for that excellent write-up on the B10 game, VK. You do make some compelling arguments and I agree, the spot is pretty much a wash with Illinois off a loss.

Also looks like RB Dufrene is going to give it a go if that matters; nevertheless, Blue put up 247 2nd half yards last week against a much better defense than they'll be seeing this weekend. If that was indeed a breakout and not a fluke, I think Blue covers this game fairly easily. As usual, it probably falls in between a fluke and a breakout.

Reagrding Arizona St...prior to a wager on ASU, be aware of their putrid record in the state of Cali; realize Erickson is a new coach, but this team hasn't travelled well in the past to these four schools. I agree with what you say about Cal...I saw the MWC press conferences and was listening to Fairbanks...he gave Cal marginal credit and said CSU gave up too many big plays based on their own mistakes and implied the game could've and should've been much closer.
 
B.A.R. said:
Your doing my Michigan write-ups from now on.

Great point about the level of offenses the Illini have faced. Still not a good defense but not terrible. Like I said, its a bad pass defense but Michigan doesn't have the consistent downfield passing game to take advantage.
Click to expand...


exactly.... and i think if zook is smart ( which is questionable when off the recruiting trail ) he loads up to stop the run attack.
 
horses said:
Thanks for that excellent write-up on the B10 game, VK. You do make some compelling arguments and I agree, the spot is pretty much a wash with Illinois off a loss.

Also looks like RB Dufrene is going to give it a go if that matters; nevertheless, Blue put up 247 2nd half yards last week against a much better defense than they'll be seeing this weekend. If that was indeed a breakout and not a fluke, I think Blue covers this game fairly easily. As usual, it probably falls in between a fluke and a breakout.

Reagrding Arizona St...prior to a wager on ASU, be aware of their putrid record in the state of Cali; realize Erickson is a new coach, but this team hasn't travelled well in the past to these four schools. I agree with what you say about Cal...I saw the MWC press conferences and was listening to Fairbanks...he gave Cal marginal credit and said CSU gave up too many big plays based on their own mistakes and implied the game could've and should've been much closer.
Click to expand...


I think it's reasonable to say they are improving each week. Wonder if wisconsin let up a little at halftime though. One thing i wanted to point out is that some of these plays that michigan is executing are going to be huge when they have the recruited talent that fits the system... i mean the threet 58 yard run vs wisconsin is a td with pat white or similar type player. Still , as with all the teams learning new systems they rate to improve each week unless they fall into the "quit" category which obviously doesn't apply to michigan.

As far as ASU , good point about road woes in california. I am not really sold on ASU at this point and was not nearly as high pn them as most in the offseason. Just worried for CAL as i dont think tedford has gotten the maximum out of his teams the last couple of years and their past two performances ( while filled with good excuses ) are less than inspiring. one team gets its running game back with herring and the other loses its running game with Best. Worried some of the csu game was hangover and some was lookahead ... not sure but i like the talent of that team and think they have an underrated HFA.
 
Want to do some midweek patting myself on the back. As you recall i was very upset last week at how i did in projecting where lines would move and so on... taking the worst of it in a couple of games ... this week i beat the line moves significantly so far ... that could always change between now and gametime but looking at numbers i got vs current line makes me feel good about my work ... especially the iowa game.

all current BM numbers

penn state -12.5 ................................-13.5
eastern michigan + 22..........................+20.5
illinois +3 ..........................................+3
tulsa -13.5 ........................................-15.5
iowa + 10 :) .....................................+7
Tennessee -15 ................................... -16
emich/bgsu over 54.5 .......................... 55
ohio/wmich over 50.5 .......................... 52.5
rutgers/wvu over 44.5 ......................... 45.5
temple/miamioh over 39 ....................... 41
wyo/unm under 44 .............................. 41
cincy/marshall under 52.5 .................... 47.5
 
Managed to watch all three games tonight and have some thoughts about the games and about future matchups concerning these teams. There ws some suspect officiating tonight too. I had no money on the line so this should all be pretty objective.

memphis at uab --Neither team can tackle. Lets get that out of the way. As a football fan it was hard to watch. For memphis this wr singleton is 6 foot 8 and plays taller in my opinion. Might be worthwhile checking the heights of the two cornerbacks of the opposing teams in future games. Arkelon Hall is not a good qb. His decision making is bad and he lacks touch on the football and i noticed a few times where he predetermined where he was going with the football without taking coverage into consideration. Coach West still does not know how to close out a football game ... leading by 7 twice in the scoring area he managed to have two balls intercepted when a fg likely closes the game out. Bad Bad game management. I thought curtis steele ran the ball effectively and thought his vision was decent. Also , althought the memphis kicker made his kicks , he looked bad doing it .. there is no way you can trust that kicker... trust me instead. Neither team can tackle. As far as UAB , this Webb kid is amazing. He consistently makes people miss and consistently gets the most out of every play. Would be nice for him if someone would throw a block though. I thought that uab was victimized by pretty one-sided officiating tonight but they made a lot of undisciplined plays and deserved most of what they got. Did i mention that neither team can tackle ?

oregon st at utah -- like most folks i wanted to bet utah tonight as i really liked the spot and thought the utes could stuff the middle up and prevent rodgers from going off in the center of the field likehe did vs usc. I laid off because i was worried about the opposing teams pass rush given utahs bad pass blocking so far this season. Sure enough , the beavers got good pressure which resulted in a lot of sacks and a pressured qb. Oregon state was the better football team tonight and utah should feel lucky to get out of their with a win in their home stadium. I found the call in the endzone suspect at best and the official who threw the flag was not the one in the best position. Still , an argument could be made that it was interference i suppose. It's not often that you see a team outgain the opponent , out first down the opponent and win the turnover battle and still lose the game. When all of that happens it usually means that special teams played a role and it did. oregon state doesnt have a reliable kicker. he missed the extra point on the last td vs usc and the first td scored tonight .... since riley couldn't rely on the kid he went for two earlier in the game than he might otherwise and that turned out to be big as we all know. Brian johnson looked slower to me tonight .. i know its just one game but i had also noticed this in the air force game two weeks ago ... he just seems a step slower to me. I also felt he looked rattled at times out there. Had you flipped the coaches , Utah would have won this game by 20 but much like last week vs the trojans , riley had a great gameplan for this game. I think utah is a tad bit less than what i thought they were ... and i think oregon state is improving each week. great game to watch .. glad i did not bet the utes when i felt the line got a tad too high.

pitt at usf -- usf was overrated. not much else to say. The offensive line of usf was dominated by the panther defensive line all game and i thought .... wait for it .... wait for it .... i actually thought wanny outcoached leavitt and was far more aggressive with his playcalling than normal. McCoy still holds the ball a little too loosely and will continue to have fumble problems until he corrects it but he is incredible ... and i do mean incredible ... at reading blocks. Had it not been for the blocked punt for td , usf would have managed just 14 at home in this one .. maybe pitt is finally reaching expectations ... where was this when i bet them against lowly buffalo ? I thought usf looked pretty flat from kickoff to final whistle. Would look to avoid usf when facing really strong defensive lines.

all in all a fun night of football.
 
Great stuff VK.

Wannstedt usually does better when he is an underdog as opposed to being a favorite, and I think it is correlative to him taking more chances as the dog.

They actually took shots downfield last night (especially early when it looked like the USF D was pressing up). I think he is more willing to do this when he knows that they are not expected to win.

Against Bowling Green and Buffalo, I guess he simply figured that his talent would eventually win out, so he tried to grind a victory. He seems afraid to make mistakes in these games.
 
vegaskyle said:
Alright here is what i see with illinois at michigan.



Illinois appears to have some defensive issues on the surface .. they are giving up 182 yards a game on the ground and 202 yards a game through the air. BUT you also have to look at the level of competition these guys have faced offensively. missouri is ranked 2nd in the country in total offense , penn state is ranked 9th and ULL is ranked 15th. Here are the team averages of total offense vs their respective results vs illinois

missouri avgerage 595 ..... vs illinois 549
ull averages 464.5 ...........vs illinois 287
penn state averages 515 ...vs illinois 422

So as i look at this game i have to expect ... even with the bad stats that illinois has to date ... that they hold michigan well under their total yards average.

Illinois really hasnt been that bad vs the run either ,,,, their stats are skewed by the great game that penn state had vs them last week. ull and missouri were both held under 100 yards rushing for the game. Surprisingly where illinois has been weaker is in pass defense. I thought going into the year that their secondary looked pretty good on paper. But that is also the rub for me here .... michigan is 104th in the nation this year throwing the ball , averaging jsut 148 yards a game. They are simply not set up to take advantage of illinois by passing. RichRod is going to run his offense. And on paper , illinois matches up really well with this defensively .. with vontae davis on the outside the illini can eliminate the best wide receiver threat that michigan has. This should allow illinois to commit more men to stopping the run game that is the staple of the michigan offense.

These are the types of teams that illinois matches up well with in my opinion ... the ones who can't keep up with them in scoring. Teams that can trade scores like missouri , penn state and the like are going to give illinois trouble but michigan offense is in bottom ten in nation in total offense and bottom thirty in scoring offense ... major step down in offensive production for illini defense to contend with..... and this doesn't just mean less scoring for the opponent it means better field position on average for the offense.

Offensively i have little reason to believe ( there are some concerns about how well michigan defended illinois last year ) that illinois can't succeed enough to win the game. The most comaprable offense that michigan faced was utah and we all saw that game. Michigans problem with defense vs the spread offense was well documented last year while i do think they got better at it as the year went on. illinois is going to score on people and the way to beat them is to outscore them. I am not a huge juice fan and he is capable of making bad mistakes and bad throws at key moments but he has gotten better each year as well.

The spot here is also not much of a concern for me. Michigan is coming off of the big fourth quarter against wisconsin and while i dont think it creates a letdown , it does change the situation as far as desperation is concerned. Flat out , Illinois needs this game more. Illinois with a loss drops to 0-2 in conference in the year where they have the most expectations in the preseason for quite some time. They proved to me last week and vs missouri ( both in defeat ) that they can travel and still put out decent effort. And the homefield has not meant much to michigan this year ... they have played three games at home vs miamioh , utah and wisconsin and the wolverines have been out first downed in all three games. While i think utah is a better team right now that illinois is , this illinois team is faster than any that michigan has faced to date and will pose problems for them on both sides of the ball.

Unless michigan is able to somehow exploit one on one coverage from vontae davis with big plays from threet to odoms ( assuming that is who davis is going to try and take out of the game ) , then i just dont see michigan making enough offensive plays to keep up with illinois here.

michigan has been the victims of poor ball management with their fumbling and the like ... and i am a believer in that evening out over time ... but facing the fastest defense to date , seems like a tough spot for michigan to correct this issue.

illinois wins straight up i think
Click to expand...


good write up bro...I'm not betting this game because I think UM is going to win..but I need to see how they react to a mobile QB in order for me to bet on it. In my opinion, they will shut Juice down, but I need some semblance to base this on and I have none.

Michigan needs this game just as bad as Illini bro. They want to make a bowl in the worst way this year, it is imperative that RR get those extra 15 practices for the many frosh that ae playing this year.
 
vegaskyle said:
oregon st at utah -- like most folks i wanted to bet utah tonight as i really liked the spot and thought the utes could stuff the middle up and prevent rodgers from going off in the center of the field likehe did vs usc. I laid off because i was worried about the opposing teams pass rush given utahs bad pass blocking so far this season. Sure enough , the beavers got good pressure which resulted in a lot of sacks and a pressured qb. Oregon state was the better football team tonight and utah should feel lucky to get out of their with a win in their home stadium. I found the call in the endzone suspect at best and the official who threw the flag was not the one in the best position. Still , an argument could be made that it was interference i suppose. It's not often that you see a team outgain the opponent , out first down the opponent and win the turnover battle and still lose the game. When all of that happens it usually means that special teams played a role and it did. oregon state doesnt have a reliable kicker. he missed the extra point on the last td vs usc and the first td scored tonight .... since riley couldn't rely on the kid he went for two earlier in the game than he might otherwise and that turned out to be big as we all know. Brian johnson looked slower to me tonight .. i know its just one game but i had also noticed this in the air force game two weeks ago ... he just seems a step slower to me. I also felt he looked rattled at times out there. Had you flipped the coaches , Utah would have won this game by 20 but much like last week vs the trojans , riley had a great gameplan for this game. I think utah is a tad bit less than what i thought they were ... and i think oregon state is improving each week. great game to watch .. glad i did not bet the utes when i felt the line got a tad too high.
Click to expand...


Worst game I've ever seen Johnson play and I've seen every one of them. Deer in headlights last night. ST play 100% won the game for Utah. I said it before the Michigan game and it's looking 100% true right now; Sakoda is the best player on the team. Riley is a hell of a coach. Their offensive game plan was perfect. Great game as a football fan and obviously feel fortunate as a Utah fan with the victory.
 
excellent write-up on illinois/mich...and thanks for the game recaps from last night...very generous of you. i didn't get the opportunity to see much of any of the games except for most of the second half of usf/pitt game that burned my money. was wondering how utah was playing so bad...weird spot for johnson to have a bad game. he's one of my favorite parts about this team that i think so highly of. doesn't change my opinion of them too much....good teams find ways to win games like that. perhaps i have underrated oregon st, or penn st, or both; i don't know. maybe i overlooked some key matchup flaws that you pointed out. one thing is for sure though, i'm simply putrid at betting favorites. awful. god, whenever i put a big favorite on the card take the ml of the dog. i'm in the middle of what is most likely (hopefully) going to be my worst week of the year on a card i hated. should have just played nothing haha.

threw up some buckeyes/wisky thoughts in my thread too; prob not anything that you don't already know, but tried to at least get some thoughts down of how i am looking at the game to pan out...gl with the rest of the card bud.

:cheers:
 
Kyle great thread as always. Great number with Iowa, thats sexy as hell, nice work.

BTW you ever gamble down at Bills? Has to be my favorite place in Vegas, such a hole in the wall but a great little casino, really offers everything a degenerate could want.

Craps
Blackjack
Nice wrap around bar
Hookers
After hours bar
Worlds smallest sports book.
 
Finally won a midweek game with the cincy/marshall total staying under. YAY. Have not been fairing well on those the last 15 months.

Dmoney -- I agree with you about wanny as a good dog and a bad favorite. Big win for our future bet of cincy over 6.5 wins ...... 2-6 the rest of the way to lose ... i like our chances.

jpicks -- it has almost become a yearly ritual to underestimate the beavers i think. johnson will bounce back with a good game and he made a nice throw for the last td as well. Did ia ctually hear some boos in that game in the background ?

hunt -- yup realize that michigan needs the game too and i am a believer in their coach pretty much getting his teams up every week. Unlike the Carr era , this coaching staff has spark. I thought Carr was a good coach despite what soem others say but i think the strength coach and RR and these guys have a tad more energy. Not going to lie , a little worried that the second half of the wisconsin game was a light bulb turning over the collective heads of the wolverines .. if not though .. i like illini here for reasons mentioned.

broadway -- yup .. in the past i made a fortune off of others underestimating oregon st .. now i am doing it too i think ... Riley is one of the best coaches int he country .. period. end of story. i have struggled with my dogs ...which seems strange.... you don't play a lot of favorites anyway , it will even out for you . I don't remember you from last year but your capping is solid as a rock and a thread i love to read every week now.

marlo --Bills is not a hangout of mine. Very happy with the iowa number. In fact , very happy with most of my numbers ... no matter the results on saturday i know i have value in the lines alone , even if i dont have a capping edge.


Can't recommend eastern michigan enough this week gang. i played it the same as every other bet but if any of you are dumb enough to be tailing me and are only betting one game .. that is the one.

gl tomorrow.
 
eastern michigan +22 -- Really like this game and i will likely ( actually i will have a ml bet on emich here in some capacity ) have a itsy bitsy teeny weeny bet on the ml here as well. BGSU is a little bit overrated i think due to big year last year and win over pitt early this year. E michigan is not as bad as record indicates and the final score from last weeks game is not indicative of the game itself. This is another of those shady mac lines that make no logical sense. I don't tend to do well in those spots but i have no problem betting into what i see as a bad line. ....... it's our job as cappers.
Click to expand...
anything more to add here?

Getting a feel for this matchup...
 
After a game has started that i have bet on , i never go back and edit a posted plays post so i cant go back in there to make this clear.....so doing it in this post.

i will not be playing any of the leans tomorrow of wisconsin , indiana or ASU

Wisconsin == lots of good info on this game in broadway joes thread. lsot value int he line as i could have had +3 at open too. ... just not confident enough to put my money on it,

indiana --lost my number here too .. but laying off for some additional matchup reasons. i also think i may not be giving minny a big enough hfa at this point .. which means my line might be off a tad as well. Hard to believe a bet on indiana could be bad in this spot ... but they got some momentum right now in gopherland.

ASU -- The loss to unlv lingers a little bit in my mind ... and they looked piss poor at home to nevada ( yay ). They got handled pretty easily by Georgia as well who has not looked nearly as dominant in games with s carolina and of course bama. And they actually didnt play all that well vs northern arizona either ... and this is first roadie of the year. Really should be betting this team .......
 
well you twisted my arm on emu and i'm also on asu now...very sorry to do this to ya haha. to hell with it...made a bunch of leans latenight adds in an effort to combat the rought start

i usually don't edit the first post after a posted play either, but do you think people will just trust me seeing as i have 9 units worth of losing plays that are still up?? hahahahahaha.

let's get emu tomorrow
 
Alright real quickly ....

first thing to note is line value generated from last weeks games ....

bgsu had just a 4 fd edge and 72 yard edge at wyoming last week. I say "just" because wyoming ahd 5 turnovers vs just 1 for bgsu. Wyoming had 316 yards of offense to bgsu 388 ,,,,,,, This is all significant to me because the final score was 45-16. Pretty deceiving score in my opinion.

Now on the other side of the coin emich got shutout at home 37-0 by northern illinois .... but you guessed it .. very deceiving score. NIU ahd a 21-18 fd edge and a 339 - 259 yardage edge and benefited from +2 in turnovers ... so again ... niu should have won but the 37-0 makes it look like it wasnt even competitive. Emich lost the starter early in the game and schmitt came in. So that was a bit hard on the team as well. Now , i personally prefer schmitt to mcmahon so this isnt a concern this week for me.

Last year in this game emich had over 400 yards of offense and 27 first downs against bgsu ... and return most of that offense. BGSU is giving up over 20 fd a game on AVERAGE so far. They rank 79th in rushing defense and 57th in passing defense. granted they have played some stiff competition but that is not the kind of defense that should be laying 21 points or more in my opinion. Their two wins are the result of +7 in turnovers combined.

Eastern michigan ranks 6th in the country vs the pass .... yup thats right. Now that is deceiving because they have trailed huge all year so the opponent has no need to throw but they are decent at it and with bgtsu inability to run well that comes into play in this game.

BGSU is going to get theirs at home but i think emich can move the ball and score on that defense .. definitely enough to keep it within the number and i think they have a chance for the outright upset.
 
broadwayjoe said:
well you twisted my arm on emu and i'm also on asu now...very sorry to do this to ya haha. to hell with it...made a bunch of leans latenight adds in an effort to combat the rought start

i usually don't edit the first post after a posted play either, but do you think people will just trust me seeing as i have 9 units worth of losing plays that are still up?? hahahahahaha.

let's get emu tomorrow
Click to expand...


yeah people will trust you. i just dont like taking grief from anyone and want transparency as much as possible.

asu didnt make my card ..... it should be on there though ....

welcome aboard the emu train !!
 
B.A.R. said:
Okay,

Nicely played.

Just locked in at 21.
Click to expand...

hope it wins hehe.

for those worried about whether Todd Graham will run up the score .. lets not forget this gem ...

Rice band's 'Todd Graham's Inferno' not a hit with Tulsa

Associated Press



<!-- promo plug -->
<!-- end promo plug -->

<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --><!-- begin page tools -->Updated: November 27, 2007, 7:14 PM ET


<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --><!-- template inline -->
OKLAHOMA CITY -- Tulsa has filed a complaint with Conference USA regarding a halftime performance by the Rice marching band ridiculing coach Todd Graham, who left Rice after one season to coach the Golden Hurricane.
The theme of the performance by the Marching Owl Band was a search for Graham through nine circles of hell based on Dante's "Divine Comedy."
"I think anyone has an opinion and can express a view about people's behavior, but creating a production and presenting it to fans is entirely different than expressing an individual's view of behavior," Tulsa athletic director Bubba Cunningham said.
The Rice band has a history of edgy performances dating back for several decades. Director of bands Chuck Throckmorton compared the band's approach to those at Ivy League schools and Stanford.
"I think that a lot of times those bands set out seeking to start a controversy and we set out seeking to be entertaining and the controversies end up being a bit of a surprise," Throckmorton said.
Throckmorton said the band was conveying the "general atmosphere of displeasure" and betrayal that students felt when Graham signed a two-year contract extension to stay at Rice only days before he agreed to return to Tulsa.
Graham, who had previously been a defensive coordinator for Steve Kragthorpe at Tulsa, took the Owls to their first bowl game in 45 years in his only season in Houston.
"It's been conversation among students all campus of, 'Boy we can't wait for the Tulsa show because that's the chance to let him know how we feel about it,'" Throckmorton said.
The performance suggested that Graham's shredded contract was found in the fourth circle of hell with the greedy and the avaricious -- also claiming that former Texas A&M coach Dennis Franchione was in that circle -- and the coach could be found beyond hell's greatest depths behind a door marked "Welcome To Tulsa."
"I think they have a long tradition of priding themselves on being irreverent and sometimes you cross the line, and we think they did this time," Cunningham said.
Cunningham said Tulsa sent its complaint to the Conference USA office Monday.
"We haven't requested anything specifically," Cunningham said. "What we're hoping to achieve is trying to create environments at all of our athletic events that are supportive of student-athletes and not vulgar or demeaning to individuals, institutions or other groups."
Cunningham said it's common for schools to make suggestions to each other about the game day atmosphere and what constitutes a proper standard.
"If somebody has a bad experience at our place, I want to know it so we can correct it," Cunningham said.
Throckmorton said the band's intent is to entertain and not to cause harm, although he said it's also common for the band to receive letters criticizing its performances. He said the band expected Tulsa "to be a bit indignant."
"The best reaction from an audience is laughter, which by the way we did [get]," Throckmorton said. "I think the next best reaction is that they're shocked because they did not know which direction you were going with that."
 
Texas made CU look like a high school offense. Negative yards from scrimmage until midway through the fourth quarter. You could see the matchups coming from a mile away. Easy money.
 
right on texasfight...

thanks for the convincing on EMU...

prolly one of the best capped games this year.

:shake:

:shake:

:shake:
 
texasfight said:
Texas made CU look like a high school offense. Negative yards from scrimmage until midway through the fourth quarter. You could see the matchups coming from a mile away. Easy money.
Click to expand...


Thanks for talking me off Colroado , bud. Total domination.
 
updated through week 6
overall 34-29-2
Sides 20-23-2
moneyline dogs 0-1
totals 14-5
middles/teasers/parlays/traps/etc 2-2 + $420

Had a nice week 8-4 and lost the $50 parlay on iowaml/emu ml

sides were 5-1
winners - illinois , emich , tulsa, iowa , penn state
loser - tennesse vols ( someone have the bama fan that calls them puke orange ? )

totals were 3-3
winners -- cincy/marshall under , wyoming/unm under , ohio/wmich over
losers -- temple/miamioh over 39 , rugters/wvu over 44.5 , em/bg over 54.5


Will have recaps of games as usual to start next weeks thread.

hope you all had a good day.
 
Nice job this week VK. Great to see all of the hard work really paying off the last few weeks b/c you definitely add a lot of value to the forum. Hope you continue to bring home the profit in week 7.
 
sweet :cheers:

fwiw, i've about had my fill on totals this year. whether it's the clock or whatever, they just aren't going right.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

s--k
Weeks 0 and 1 in the FCS
2 3
Replies
112
Views
2K
s--k
s--k
Colin Wynner
CFB Bowl Week #3 Pick Pool Trends
Replies
1
Views
168
Colin Wynner
Colin Wynner
Colin Wynner
CFB Bowl Week #1 Pick Pool Trends
Replies
0
Views
161
Colin Wynner
Colin Wynner
Colin Wynner
CFB Bowl Week #2 Pick Pool Trends
Replies
0
Views
165
Colin Wynner
Colin Wynner
Colin Wynner
CFB Conference Championship Pick Pool Trends
Replies
1
Views
207
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
Back
Top