2008 cfb - time to post my week 13 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
updated through week 12
overall 73-59-2 55.3%
Sides 49-38-2 56.3%
moneyline dogs 1-1
totals 23-20 53.5 %

Had a great week on sides last week , going 6-0. Unfortunately the totals regressed as i went 0-4 on those. Will get to recaps later in the week where i go over my bets from last week.


locked in

Georgia Tech -3 -120
Illinois -2
ncstate +12
Michigan state + 15 ( huh? )
clemson -2.5
Arizona -3
Wake forest -1
louisville +7

strong leans

ole miss +6 eliminated 11-19
iowa -6
the ville +7 added 11-19

talk me off leans

nevada +6 eliminated 11-19
wyoming +2.5 eliminated 11-19
fresno st -2.5
 
Last edited:
Added the following

Georgia Tech -3 -120
Illinois -2
ncstate +12
Michigan state + 15
clemson -2.5
Arizona -3
Wake forest -1
 
Kyle your gonna have to explain this week's card to me man.

I mean what a bunch of inflated lines.

I like NCTU, MSU, GT pretty strongly

Wake, Zone lean

You gotta talk to me about Clemson and Illinois.
 
O-State said:
Kyle your gonna have to explain this week's card to me man.

I mean what a bunch of inflated lines.

I like NCTU, MSU, GT pretty strongly

Wake, Zone lean

You gotta talk to me about Clemson and Illinois.
Click to expand...


i will have more on each game but here are some quick blurbs for each play


ncstate -- mostly a value play here. unc qb situation unknown sexton/yates or combo ? loss of tate starting to show in scoring. ncstate playing better every week and gets healthier every week. likely that unc wins but line is way too high imo. had to take a stab

Georgia tech -- matches up well vs undisciplined miami fl defense. paul johnson off a bye facing shannon at home on a thursday night. i bit.

michigan state -- fundamentally sound team. dantonio off a bye vs figurehead paterno and hisssistants. michigan st plays similar style to tosu and iowa who both gave pennst fits. over two td ?? really ?

wake -- finally showed signs. terrible situational spot for bc after emotional rialry win over notre dame , and then emotional win over fsu where they travel down to florida , back up to boston and back down to winston-salem. boston college cant run at all and wake has a gerat secondary to match up against bc pass game.

illinois -- sort of mirror image of northwestern only the illini are bigger , faster and stronger. motivational edge as illinois sits 5-6 and needs win for bowl eligibility.

clemson -- has quietly played four solid games in a row. definitely on the improve. in the offseason i laughed at their high ranking because of o-line losses but the line is now starting mature and they are playing hard for new coach. clemson will shut down peerman and make verica beat them. if he can then i lose.

zona -3 -- oregon state has not been playing great football lately but it has been masked by wins. bad game vs arizona st , bad first half vs ucla and were it not for two kick returns and an interception return they would have lost at home to cal. Arizona has playmakers all over the field and i think they outscore the beavers in this one.
 
rarely lock in anything early, but i'm all over michigan St. about to lock in michigan as well
 
Jeebus, you're not wasting any time getting these babies posted.

I am surprised the LSU line is not 3-4.5 range. That being said I can only imagine what that team will go through this week having gone into the Troy game so flat. That would be my biggest concern betting Ole Miss, LSU coming out of the gate like a bat from hell to redeem themselves from their piss poor showing last night.
 
clemson -- has quietly played four solid games in a row. definitely on the improve. in the offseason i laughed at their high ranking because of o-line losses but the line is now starting mature and they are playing hard for new coach. clemson will shut down peerman and make verica beat them. if he can then i lose.
Click to expand...

Also note that in the 41-27 loss at FSU, Clemson's LT Hairston was injured and had to leave the game with Clemson leading early. He was handling FSU's DE Brown without a problem up to that point, but thereafter Clemson simply couldn't protect the QB. Hairston was back last week, and it made a difference.
 
You'd think there would be a ton of value in michigan st ML as well. i could see this game going either way, but in a close one.
 
LSU down to -5.5 so it might get to the 3-4.5 range I expected. Without a doubt, Ole Miss will receive most the action in this game.
 
That being said I can only imagine what that team will go through this week having gone into the Troy game so flat. That would be my biggest concern betting Ole Miss, LSU coming out of the gate like a bat from hell to redeem themselves from their piss poor showing last night.
Click to expand...

Yeah, it's too bad -- Ole Miss was setting up to be a great play. I'm still leaning that way, but not as strongly.
 
buckeyeburritos said:
rarely lock in anything early, but i'm all over michigan St. about to lock in michigan as well
Click to expand...


my concern with the michigan st bet at this point is that they seem to be begging for spartan money setting it at this line.

but crap.... had to bet it. if this game closes over 14 i will be outright shocked. expected this in the 8.5-11 range from the books. ...
 
Blue_Chip said:
Jeebus, you're not wasting any time getting these babies posted.

I am surprised the LSU line is not 3-4.5 range. That being said I can only imagine what that team will go through this week having gone into the Troy game so flat. That would be my biggest concern betting Ole Miss, LSU coming out of the gate like a bat from hell to redeem themselves from their piss poor showing last night.
Click to expand...


early bird gets the worm.

i made the game lower as well.

believe it is a morning start which is big imo... or more improtantly not a nght game.

At what point to i just decide that i have had lsu overrated this year ?? i almost played them against troy fo rheavens sake.

yeah , the bad performance vs troy is a concern as far as them coming out all fired up. And even though this mississippi team is a lot better than most teams in the past .. it is still lsu in death valley.

have some things to look over and the faster you share your insight the faster i can make a decision on this game and i expect the movement early in the week to be downward before later in the week it gets pushed back up a tiny bit.
 
They set the line begging for Penn St money. Set it at -16'.

Line has gone steadily down and now, yeah, if you looked at the line you'd think they were still begging for Sparty money.
 
M.W. said:
Also note that in the 41-27 loss at FSU, Clemson's LT Hairston was injured and had to leave the game with Clemson leading early. He was handling FSU's DE Brown without a problem up to that point, but thereafter Clemson simply couldn't protect the QB. Hairston was back last week, and it made a difference.
Click to expand...


great point about Hairston.

I never would have thought at the start of the year that clemson would be UNDERRATED at some point in the year .. but that is the case here.

great great point about hairston though.
 
M.W. said:
Yeah, it's too bad -- Ole Miss was setting up to be a great play. I'm still leaning that way, but not as strongly.
Click to expand...


i was secretly hoping for 7.5

i guarantee i wont bet at anything less than +6

i think we see the game and the line value the same most likely.

this is a game i need to look at in more depth though .. so ole miss might still make it.
 
RJ Esq said:
They set the line begging for Penn St money. Set it at -16'.

Line has gone steadily down and now, yeah, if you looked at the line you'd think they were still begging for Sparty money.
Click to expand...


yeah .. they had to know they were going to get hit with sparty money imo..... makes me wonder if they have a strong opinion that penn st rolls in this one.

also not a night game unless they make a time change.....
 
kyle...do you anticipate mcgee to play this week for ill? i wouldn't want to take them with juice i don't think. it just concerns me that ohio state was pretty much their last shot to say they had any success at all this season compared to expectations. i realize the bowl hopes, but that definitely isn't a guarantee even if they win here. northwestern has to be running high after beating michigan in the big house, no matter how bad michigan is it's fun for these former big10 bottomfeeders to go in there and get a win. i don't know...just doesn't feel right in my view..anxious to hear your opinion on it...

the other one that doesn't feel right but would be the only way i would play it as well is michigan state. they probably won't be able to run the ball at all, and i doubt they will be able to move it through the air either esp if the weather is bad. i just don't see them scoring much more than a td, meaning the -16 or whatever is a lot more reasonable. i could definitely see a 24-3 game. and penn state will be more than motivated because they don't want to give the big10 to osu. i hope it's a good game and mich state is even able to pull out a victory, but unfortunately i just don't really see that happening. although another thing you have going for you is that there's a good chance dantonio and tress are teaming up off the record to gather up a defensive gameplan vs the lions...my .02...bol, i'll be rooting for ya

rest of the plays look pretty good; i'm particularly interested in gt
 
one more thing about mich state...you say that they're like ohio state and iowa which i somewhat agree with, but the comparisons don't hold up when talking about the defenses against the run, and then of course you have the homefield as well which played a big part for the buckeyes keeping it close and i probably don't see iowa winning if it isn't iowa city
 
Kyle a thought on the totals---- they killed me the last two weeks too. I've come around to realize they can be another valuable avenue to make money, BUT, I think you see what I meant when I said they can be tricky. The ND-Navy pace, look at the first half to the second half. I still like totals but man I need to play them rarely, at least for me.


----Ole Miss wins straight up IMO. This LSU team has been overrated all season. It's time to say it's a fact, they ARE vastly overrated. South Carolina and Alabama were the best matchups in the SEC for LSU to play against IMO. Run right into a conrete wall an keep banging. I mean Ole Miss, if we've learned anything from this season, should, should, run for nearly 200 yards on LSU. I don't think that's exaggerating. Look at the type of plays UF and Georgia got running yards on. Ole Miss does it better. And Nutt has done it on better LSU defenses.

Defensively Ole Miss can stop this power run. Basically held Bama right at 100 yards.

---I think you even have to give a coaching edge to Nutt. This guy as a dog in rivalry games is money.
 
After watching Ohio State play Illinois and Northwestern I thought Northwestern was the better team.

EDIT: I just wanted to add the Penn State line makes me mad. I was going to play them large. Now I'm tempted to take MSU. Bookmakers are screwing around with me. broadwayjoe makes a good point. I could see PSU just dominate this game. I really could and I do think they control the game handidly, game never in doubt. But still the line should not be where it is at.
 
Fuck the line...Who cares...MSU is playing for a rose bowl here if OSU loses (they won't) but Dantonio will prepare them to think thaat way.
 
Yeah this is either gonna be a close game or a Penn State blowout. PSU will win, and part of me thinks it could be a large win.

But, thinking about this, not sure PSU can stone wall the MSU run like Wisconsin did and Ohio State did. Different line schemes. MSU ran it pretty well last year on PSU, it's gonna be body to body, the kind MSU likes, not stunts and little guys getting underneath them.

My fear is PSU could really have no problem scoring and even if MSU isn't stonewalled in the run, they are gonna have to work for it and that PSU defense can limit them to fg's.


------I just hope the linesmakers get murdered for whatever they are thinking.
 
VK, you don't see value in Vandy -3 vs Tenn? I guess your line is similar. I like Vandy's position heading into this game. Tenn knows their season is a waste, Fulmer is gone, ... Vandy is bowl eligible for the first time in I forgot how many years. They will be looking to roll their in-state rival in a season where they know they can. Add in homefield advantage (not much of one until this season, and I'm sure they will be there for this in-state battle) and I like Vandy the more I look at the matchup.
 
blue chip, did you watch that vandy/kentucky game? unreal how they dominated 3/4 of it...that was my lean this week as well...that was definitely their best game. nickson played very well and moore played out of his mind. should do good for their confidence and momentum
 
broadwayjoe said:
kyle...do you anticipate mcgee to play this week for ill? i wouldn't want to take them with juice i don't think. it just concerns me that ohio state was pretty much their last shot to say they had any success at all this season compared to expectations. i realize the bowl hopes, but that definitely isn't a guarantee even if they win here. northwestern has to be running high after beating michigan in the big house, no matter how bad michigan is it's fun for these former big10 bottomfeeders to go in there and get a win. i don't know...just doesn't feel right in my view..anxious to hear your opinion on it...

the other one that doesn't feel right but would be the only way i would play it as well is michigan state. they probably won't be able to run the ball at all, and i doubt they will be able to move it through the air either esp if the weather is bad. i just don't see them scoring much more than a td, meaning the -16 or whatever is a lot more reasonable. i could definitely see a 24-3 game. and penn state will be more than motivated because they don't want to give the big10 to osu. i hope it's a good game and mich state is even able to pull out a victory, but unfortunately i just don't really see that happening. although another thing you have going for you is that there's a good chance dantonio and tress are teaming up off the record to gather up a defensive gameplan vs the lions...my .02...bol, i'll be rooting for ya

rest of the plays look pretty good; i'm particularly interested in gt
Click to expand...


if you feel msu doesn't get more than a td then i would just bet the under.

i see msu as a lesser version of tosu with wells and iowa with greene. they are similar... sound fundamentally. well coached , superior running back play. If you look at it , it appears to me that it is penn st that has been effected by the cold weather of late ...

Also , i would never lay over two td if i thought the favorite should only get to about 24 ... and the thing is ... if the game is 24-3 late .... msu still has a chance to cover.


as for illinios

i dont mind illinois with juice at all. for all my hate on juice , he is a better option than bacher of kafka. really just feel like illinois is superior athletically at most positions and neither team is going to see anything scheme wise that they haven't seen in practice all year. northwestern just cant rush the ball without a healthy sutton and when bacher plays they lose kafka runnign ability.

motivation edge to illinois
 
broadwayjoe said:
one more thing about mich state...you say that they're like ohio state and iowa which i somewhat agree with, but the comparisons don't hold up when talking about the defenses against the run, and then of course you have the homefield as well which played a big part for the buckeyes keeping it close and i probably don't see iowa winning if it isn't iowa city
Click to expand...

don't get me wrong .. msu is not in the same class as iowa or tosu on either side of the ball (maybe as good as tosu offensively ). And you are right the homefield was a big part of that ... but we are talking over two td here not a straight up winner.

i just mean that they are similar in how they approach the game. grind out first downs with a stud back , block , and tackle.

Doesn't msu have a chance to represent the big ten in the rose bowl if michigan were to beat tosu and sparty gets a win ?
 
O-State said:
Kyle a thought on the totals---- they killed me the last two weeks too. I've come around to realize they can be another valuable avenue to make money, BUT, I think you see what I meant when I said they can be tricky. The ND-Navy pace, look at the first half to the second half. I still like totals but man I need to play them rarely, at least for me.


----Ole Miss wins straight up IMO. This LSU team has been overrated all season. It's time to say it's a fact, they ARE vastly overrated. South Carolina and Alabama were the best matchups in the SEC for LSU to play against IMO. Run right into a conrete wall an keep banging. I mean Ole Miss, if we've learned anything from this season, should, should, run for nearly 200 yards on LSU. I don't think that's exaggerating. Look at the type of plays UF and Georgia got running yards on. Ole Miss does it better. And Nutt has done it on better LSU defenses.

Defensively Ole Miss can stop this power run. Basically held Bama right at 100 yards.

---I think you even have to give a coaching edge to Nutt. This guy as a dog in rivalry games is money.
Click to expand...


i rarely give les miles a coaching edge so i definitely give the edge to nutt there.

And i agree that ole miss should be able to find success behind oher and company , though i would be surprised if they got to 200.

As far as totals bets ... predicting pace is important ... and so is predicting who will lead. The fact that notre dame kept turning the ball over and blowing chances to score allowed navy to continue what they were comfortable with which meant less big plays in the game.... it also meant the navy coach was less inclined to go dobbs over bryant... which i think helped the under come in. dobbs is both more explosive , a better passer and more apt to make a big mistake. all good things for the over. i would bet that total again.

while i won the notre dame bet last week , it wasn't really how i capped them to do it.. they pounded the middies on the ground when i expected them to utilize the pass. The early interception by clausen changed ND strategy a little bit early as weiss didnt want that kid to throw his job away to a linebacker.
 
i guess the problem is that the tosu-mich game will basically be over by the time msu takes the field....
 
HUNTDOG said:
I jsut hope it isn't MSU/OSU part deux.
Click to expand...


early collapse in the tosu game ... will have to avoid that or the steamroll could definitely happen.

look gang .. i am not saying msu should go in and beat penn st .. i am saying over two td is a huge value on a dantonio coached team that will be well prepared and motivated off of a bye, that plays a similar even if lesser version of the two teams that gave penn st the most trouble this year.
 
Blue_Chip said:
VK, you don't see value in Vandy -3 vs Tenn? I guess your line is similar. I like Vandy's position heading into this game. Tenn knows their season is a waste, Fulmer is gone, ... Vandy is bowl eligible for the first time in I forgot how many years. They will be looking to roll their in-state rival in a season where they know they can. Add in homefield advantage (not much of one until this season, and I'm sure they will be there for this in-state battle) and I like Vandy the more I look at the matchup.
Click to expand...


Have a bad feel for both of these teams. not sure if vandy celebrates all week either.

no iterest in backing the quitters of tennessee but laying points with vandy isn't on my agenda either as they will struggle to move the ball i suspect.

staying away and dont have a big opinion on that one.
 
broadwayjoe said:
blue chip, did you watch that vandy/kentucky game? unreal how they dominated 3/4 of it...that was my lean this week as well...that was definitely their best game. nickson played very well and moore played out of his mind. should do good for their confidence and momentum
Click to expand...


yeah nice of johnson to let nickson do his thing ,,,, which is how the season started so well ... he made a bad move regarding pulling nickson this year.
 
Agree on your MSU points.

Just way too many points..we can spin intangibles all we want.
 
huntdog,

hmmm...I feel it will be a great game to watch, not a great game to bet IMO...both teams are coached well, both teams have quality QB play...edge to BYU in the receiving/TE department...depth at running back to Utah...special teams edge to Utah, plus the home field...Utah probably has the better overall defense, although BYU's run D is pretty good...then throw in a name like the whole "Holy War" nickname and it just screams no play to me...

kyle,

thanks for your time as well...yeah, am glad I won't be going against you and licking my wounds afterwards this week...it is good that we feel similar on a lot of games...
 
Interesting that both LSU and Penn State were off tough losses and both turned it on mid 3 Quarter .

Not sure about Mich State because how will they move the ball ?? The offense has been stale and just dont see a game outside of maybe Northwestern where the Spartans looked good. They have 2 wins vs Wisky and Iowa that should probably be loses. Blown out by Ohio State but mostly because the offense couldnt do anything and had just 300 total yards vs Purdue . Last game of the year for Penn State and without a way to move the ball think Mich State has very little chance of competing here . Penn St lost to them last year and I am sure the Nittany Lions realize that . Line seems right to me and if came down would be interested in Penn State around 2 TDs. Looking at Mich State being 9-2 is the biggest joke ever IMO. They have 2 BS wins vs Wisky and Iowa . After that whats solid ? Wins @ Michigan , @Nwestern and @ Indiana ??? Purdue , EMU , ND and Fla ATL which a few of them were closer then indicated ...

LSU game trickier IMO. Ole Miss is an inconsistent team who always does what you least expect . I have to think LSU has a ton of momentum after the Troy game . Had them +17 and nearly had to sweat it . I think LSU wins so probabl interested in -6 or less..Ole Miss is a sloppy team who can self destruct much like LSU does with Lee INT's. Ole Miss off a blowout probably struggles here IMO...

Probably interested in ULL with Troy off the meltdown and BYU as well. Oklahoma as well:cheers:
 
Yeah you know what I think I'm ready to just admit the linesmakers got it right in the MSU-PSU game. I hate that fact because it's keeping me off PSU but it's right.

Don't know if this will produce equal money but Right as in this game is going to fall very close to that number and it will come down to the end. It could go either way IMO.

----Nut Ole Miss is a dog. Nutt, Houston Nutt that is, is MONEY as a dog. I share your same concerns as them as favs they can screw you over, but as dogs I just think that's important. Nutt plays loosey goosey. And I love the matchup. Ole Miss is most certainly going to be a play for O-State.
 
vegaskyle said:
if you feel msu doesn't get more than a td then i would just bet the under.

i see msu as a lesser version of tosu with wells and iowa with greene. they are similar... sound fundamentally. well coached , superior running back play. If you look at it , it appears to me that it is penn st that has been effected by the cold weather of late ...

Also , i would never lay over two td if i thought the favorite should only get to about 24 ... and the thing is ... if the game is 24-3 late .... msu still has a chance to cover.
Click to expand...

thanks kyle...i may take a look at the under in that one. i don't necessarily think that penn st only gets to 24, i was more or less pointing out a situation where it could be 10-3 through most of the third quarter and msu still doesn't cover. gotta think 10-3 would be a good scenario for michigan state on the road, and they could still not end up covering. i guess i'm thinking best case scenario michigan state gets to 17. may or may not be enough to cover so the under would be worth a look in the mid 40s...if we get that (i'm horrible at predicting totals so that may be way off).

i don't disagree with you on this, just being devil's advocate a little ...msu would be the only way i would play it for sure.:shake:
 
SportsNut said:
Interesting that both LSU and Penn State were off tough losses and both turned it on mid 3 Quarter .

Not sure about Mich State because how will they move the ball ?? The offense has been stale and just dont see a game outside of maybe Northwestern where the Spartans looked good. They have 2 wins vs Wisky and Iowa that should probably be loses. Blown out by Ohio State but mostly because the offense couldnt do anything and had just 300 total yards vs Purdue . Last game of the year for Penn State and without a way to move the ball think Mich State has very little chance of competing here . Penn St lost to them last year and I am sure the Nittany Lions realize that . Line seems right to me and if came down would be interested in Penn State around 2 TDs. Looking at Mich State being 9-2 is the biggest joke ever IMO. They have 2 BS wins vs Wisky and Iowa . After that whats solid ? Wins @ Michigan , @Nwestern and @ Indiana ??? Purdue , EMU , ND and Fla ATL which a few of them were closer then indicated ...
:cheers:
Click to expand...

very good points there and i absolutely agree. sometimes teams can get "record balls" though i think no matter who they have beaten and play little better than they're supposed to. especially a very well-coached team that usually plays very good on the road and can run the football. if they could stop the run on the other side of the ball it sure would be nice. they haven't proven much as they should have lost those games, but they still played them both close enough to win obviously, and the cal loss was pretty impressive imo. only game they got beat down was osu and it was just due to some mistakes early that got out of hand. so, no they haven't proven a whole lot, but you can only play your schedule. just as they haven't proven much, i'm not sure that they've done that much to prove that they're overrated to the extent of 16 pt underdogs either...tough game
 
vegaskyle said:
yeah .. they had to know they were going to get hit with sparty money imo..... makes me wonder if they have a strong opinion that penn st rolls in this one.

also not a night game unless they make a time change.....
Click to expand...

14.5 is begging for Sparty money imo. a top 15 team getting two touchdowns is "gold" in most eyes. I think Sparty is one of the most overrated teams in the country and I think they get the shit kicked out of them Saturday.

:shake:
 
JohnBoy224 said:
14.5 is begging for Sparty money imo. a top 15 team getting two touchdowns is "gold" in most eyes. I think Sparty is one of the most overrated teams in the country and I think they get the shit kicked out of them Saturday.

:shake:
Click to expand...


i think you are right that msu is overrated ...... but penn st is not underrated either ........
 
pags11 said:
huntdog,

hmmm...I feel it will be a great game to watch, not a great game to bet IMO...both teams are coached well, both teams have quality QB play...edge to BYU in the receiving/TE department...depth at running back to Utah...special teams edge to Utah, plus the home field...Utah probably has the better overall defense, although BYU's run D is pretty good...then throw in a name like the whole "Holy War" nickname and it just screams no play to me...

kyle,

thanks for your time as well...yeah, am glad I won't be going against you and licking my wounds afterwards this week...it is good that we feel similar on a lot of games...
Click to expand...


I agree Pags...thanks.
 
sportsnut,

if you've had a chance to watch Ole Miss play of late you might be able to be able to better appreciate how good of football they are playing right now...we are talking about momentum in a game where LSU played Troy at home at night?...what has LSU come to if they gained "momentum" after a win like this?...Ole Miss has had a week off then a game vs. Sun Belt team...who is it that you think they've been gameplanning for the past two plus weeks (while LSU was busy playing two emotionally taxing games with bad QB play)?...linesmakers are showing the ol' 4-5 point spread which usually means they think the dog can win outright...just my thoughts I wanted to share...
 
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