I want to also comment on the "MSU sucks" thoughts as I've read them all year...quietly this team has had themselves a pretty nice season, yet they get no respect...oddsmakers know this and thus the reason for the high line (trying to detour Penn St. money while trying to attrack Michigan St. money)...they are a physical football team and I can't remember in the two years that Dantinio has coached them, having seen them get blown out...
2008 cfb - time to post my week 13 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
agree the linesmakers want lsu money and think ole miss can win and for good reason. losing line value and doubt it returns to where i want it in order to play.
i think in my subconscious i didnt want to play this game , cause i knew the line was going down from open .. i predicted it. .... but i wasnt ready to bet it. And now i will never see the number.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
You are correct .. under dantonio they have not been blown out at all other than the ohio state game a few weeks back and that was a comedy of errors at the start of the game that led to a disheartening of the team. In fact , msu might ahve even more to prove as a result of that game.
But in general they play close games when they lose the last two years.
they lost 6 games last year by an average of about 5 points a game and none of the losses were by more than a td and this year their non tosu loss was by a td at cal which is not a bad effort at all.
For those that don't know let me set up the first quarter of the tosu game for you. msu comes out pumped up and forces a punt from the bucks. Then tosu forces a three and out and the punter kicks the ball 33 yards and tosu returns it 9 or 10 yards to michigan st territory for a net gain of 23 or 24 yards on the punt , so it is like a turnover. bucks score a td. Very next drive in tosu territory msu fumbles the ball and tosu returns it to the mich st 17. they score. mich st goes three and out and tosu starts near midfield again and complete a long pass and score on the next play. BAM just like that mich st down 21-0 and their hearts are broken.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
added louisville to my strong leans list.
not sure i want to back this team again this year. i liked them against pitt too but laid off cause i didnt want to lose another dime on them and now i feel i am in a similar spot.
I actually almost bet this already but upon some review i think i want to try for the 7.5 even though the juice is already skewed to make me think it drops instead of goes up.
not sure i want to back this team again this year. i liked them against pitt too but laid off cause i didnt want to lose another dime on them and now i feel i am in a similar spot.
I actually almost bet this already but upon some review i think i want to try for the 7.5 even though the juice is already skewed to make me think it drops instead of goes up.
O
O-State
Guest
A thought on Ville.
I don't like the way they match up against the WVU run. The Ville run defense isn't as effective vs. this zone sideline action. Looking back I should of been all over Cincy's jock, those quick handoff zone's Kelly does matched up good, and then Cincy could pass which Ville can't defend.
----Ville won't have to worry much about pass outside of screens and slants. Also, Papa John's is very good home field.
I just maintain Ville matches up better vs. straight on teams and WVU schematically and speed wise I don't know.
Kyle, you might want to take what I say with a grain of salt on Ville's run D and who they match up with after the Syracuse game. But I have to tell you, UConn is a L-Ville clone. They won the rushing battle 259-96 vs. Syracuse and the game 39-14 in the Carrier dome.
Yes I still think Louisville could destroy Syracuse and that was a sandwich.
I don't like the way they match up against the WVU run. The Ville run defense isn't as effective vs. this zone sideline action. Looking back I should of been all over Cincy's jock, those quick handoff zone's Kelly does matched up good, and then Cincy could pass which Ville can't defend.
----Ville won't have to worry much about pass outside of screens and slants. Also, Papa John's is very good home field.
I just maintain Ville matches up better vs. straight on teams and WVU schematically and speed wise I don't know.
Kyle, you might want to take what I say with a grain of salt on Ville's run D and who they match up with after the Syracuse game. But I have to tell you, UConn is a L-Ville clone. They won the rushing battle 259-96 vs. Syracuse and the game 39-14 in the Carrier dome.
Yes I still think Louisville could destroy Syracuse and that was a sandwich.
O
O-State
Guest
Kyle, just wanted to let you know you've been deadly on these short lined games. Especially ACC games, anything 4 an less you've destroyed. Only loss I can think of is VT.
---how much this week are you using Bowl implications, needing a win to become eligible?
I see that Clemson and Illinois are in that situation.
Ironically those are the two plays of yours I like the least. I know you might say I'm crazy, because Ohio State beat NW by 35 and Illinois by 10 but I didn't see a difference in those two teams. I kind of thought NW was better. I'm not so sure Illinois has any heart. IMO they are done. Pat Fitzgerald's club, vs. Ohio State, and Michigan, played with a lot of heart. Kind of like Fitzy. NW is playing for a remote possibility to get to a new year's day bowl here. Still, I like your reasoning here, and could see Illinois winning this. I think if Kafka doesn't play it's a loss, they need his running. Just see NW as a club with a lot more heart.
Clemson honestly I, well actually lean Virginia. That is a good home team, a different team at home. I don't know where Clemson has an advantage. Virginia needs to win there next two to finish with a winning record, and I think they lose to VT @ VT next week without a doubt.
Like these other plays you've got. Ole Miss I expect them to win straight up. Ville getting a full 7 at Papa John's looks good no matter the matchup. Iowa is interesting. I think I am going to take a look at them. I fully expect Iowa to win this game and grab a New Year's day game in Florida along with MSU. They need to win this game for that to happen. I mean look at these lines fluctuate on Minney, a full 14 last week to Wisky, basically saying Wisky is better than Iowa? Minney is decent nothing more nothing less. Iowa is the better team. Boy I'd like a -3 line here that be a gimme. 7 and under is still awfully good. The way Iowa is made, even when they dominate the run game, cause they will, they are made to -- I guess keep it fairly close. And Minney is gritty. Iowa State sains a few TO's is in a one possession game vs. Iowa earlier this season. Odds are high though Iowa can pull this out by a TD I would think.
---how much this week are you using Bowl implications, needing a win to become eligible?
I see that Clemson and Illinois are in that situation.
Ironically those are the two plays of yours I like the least. I know you might say I'm crazy, because Ohio State beat NW by 35 and Illinois by 10 but I didn't see a difference in those two teams. I kind of thought NW was better. I'm not so sure Illinois has any heart. IMO they are done. Pat Fitzgerald's club, vs. Ohio State, and Michigan, played with a lot of heart. Kind of like Fitzy. NW is playing for a remote possibility to get to a new year's day bowl here. Still, I like your reasoning here, and could see Illinois winning this. I think if Kafka doesn't play it's a loss, they need his running. Just see NW as a club with a lot more heart.
Clemson honestly I, well actually lean Virginia. That is a good home team, a different team at home. I don't know where Clemson has an advantage. Virginia needs to win there next two to finish with a winning record, and I think they lose to VT @ VT next week without a doubt.
Like these other plays you've got. Ole Miss I expect them to win straight up. Ville getting a full 7 at Papa John's looks good no matter the matchup. Iowa is interesting. I think I am going to take a look at them. I fully expect Iowa to win this game and grab a New Year's day game in Florida along with MSU. They need to win this game for that to happen. I mean look at these lines fluctuate on Minney, a full 14 last week to Wisky, basically saying Wisky is better than Iowa? Minney is decent nothing more nothing less. Iowa is the better team. Boy I'd like a -3 line here that be a gimme. 7 and under is still awfully good. The way Iowa is made, even when they dominate the run game, cause they will, they are made to -- I guess keep it fairly close. And Minney is gritty. Iowa State sains a few TO's is in a one possession game vs. Iowa earlier this season. Odds are high though Iowa can pull this out by a TD I would think.
bull
Coattailing Cheerleader
kyle- for what it's worth. I'm finished risking any more $$ on Loisville.
( Mis-spell is DELIBERATE )
And now I wait for the previous Saturday review. Don't be modest.
You deserve even self-praise on what you did with sides last week ( Like pags, I stay away from totals )
Cheers
bull
( Mis-spell is DELIBERATE )
And now I wait for the previous Saturday review. Don't be modest.
You deserve even self-praise on what you did with sides last week ( Like pags, I stay away from totals )
Cheers
bull
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RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I understand not wanting to risk money with louisville because it is what is keeping me off right now along with their kicking situation. But if you look at wvu on the road it is not an impressive resume and louisville is the toughest homefield they will have faced by a pretty far margin. I think the louisville power run game matches up well with the wvu defense and in reality the ville offesnse as a whole might be the best that wvu has faced the entire year. The ville has played to one loss at home this year since sept to cincinnati and that game was played in bad weather and marred by a terrible spot at a crucial moment. Even there it was an 8 point loss and not a blowout. While i agree with what o-state says above about the ville matching up better vs straight on running teams , compared to the zone blocking sweeps that wvu employs , we have to give that rush defense credit at this point in the year. The cads are yeilding 3.22 a carry and 95 yards a game and that would seemingly matchup well vs wvu. Also have to look at wvu scoring performances on the road and it is not pretty for them..... 3 at ECU , 14 at colorado and 35 at uconn. And while i feel wvu misread some blocks in the first half vs uconn thtmade them struggle there , they did benefit from 5 turnovers to get to 35 in that game. They average just 16.3 first downs per game on the road and we are in mid-november and this marks just their 4th road game of the year. The schedule has been nice for them.
I like to envision scenarios in the fouth quarter and decide which i feel is more likely 7 points from the spread. I think it is more likely that louisville is tied or leading mid-fourth quarter than it is for them to be trailing by two td or more. So I think the game puts me in a position to win in the fourth quarter a good majority of the games.
will try to get recaps up later today ... forgot about them
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RetroVK
This claim is disputed
If uconn is a louisville clone then they can have success here as long as they avoid the 5 turnovers that endres was dishing out.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i made a post regarading the illini/nw game somewhere else and i will copy and paste most of it here.
Basically northwestern reminds me of navy from last week. They are sneaky bad compared to what their record shows.
First I want to point out that i prefer the illini bet if bacher gets the minutes and the reason is simple ... he doesn't help the team to make up for a lack of running when sutton is not in there. Kafka was doing that.
Sure they are 8-3 and it is fine to give them credit for winning games when they are outplayed but when doing so you also have to figure out they have gotten fortunate.
michigan had more yards and more first downs in their defeat vs nw
minnesota had more yards and more first downs in their defeat vs nw
purdue had more yards and equal first downs in their defeat vs nw
iowa had more yards and more first downs in their defeat vs nw
duke had more yards and more first downs in their defeat vs nw
In other words , NW has gotten very fortunate with timely turnovers and could or should easily be 3-8 and not 8-3. Like I said , it is ok to give them credit for finding a way to win but fundamentally they are not an 8-3 big ten team , take away the deceiving final scores.
Basically you have two teams , who run similar systems. The problem for NW is that the illini players are bigger , stronger , faster , more highly touted recruits and athletes.
It certainly appears on paper in a normal situation to be a motivational edge spot for Illinois. They need the win to become bowl eligible and i doubt this game has very much meaning at all as to nw final destination.
When looking at last years game this same illinois team racked up 32 first downs and 541 yards of offense on northwestern. Has that much changed year over year ? Maybe with loss of mendenhall and the quality offensive linemen but not enough to make me want to touch nw here with a ten foot pole.
Playing similar competition ( illinois slightly tougher in my estimation ) the illinois defense is giving up 5.2 yards per play defensively where as northwestern is giving up just 4.9 yards per play. slight edge there to nw defense.
But offensivelly the illini are averaging 6.3 yards per play and northwestern is averaging jut 4.9 yards per play and nw is even worse with Simmons back there running the ball compared to sutton.
If northwestern benefits from a good positive turnover ratio yet again ..then yeah , they probbly win here ..... but i haven't figured out how to cap for turnovers much other than i KNOW past turnovers are not usually indicative of future ones ( save certain offensive schemes like hawaii or certain qb's who are int prone ).
As far as the iowa game i ams till looking t it but i just think minnesota bought into brewster and how things were rolling at the start of the year and really overachieved to an extent and also feel they lost their best weapon in wr decker to injury. He might have been able to make some plays vs the iowa secondary and they would need that because it is very hard to run on the hawks defense. Iowa had their letdown game last week vs purdue after the big pennst win and i think they bounceback here with a solid effort and shonn greene does this thing again. Can someone name me a more under-appreciated player in college football right now ?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by pags11 
I want to also comment on the "MSU sucks" thoughts as I've read them all year...quietly this team has had themselves a pretty nice season, yet they get no respect...oddsmakers know this and thus the reason for the high line (trying to detour Penn St. money while trying to attrack Michigan St. money)...they are a physical football team and I can't remember in the two years that Dantinio has coached them, having seen them get blown out...
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You are correct .. under dantonio they have not been blown out at all other than the ohio state game a few weeks back and that was a comedy of errors at the start of the game that led to a disheartening of the team. In fact , msu might ahve even more to prove as a result of that game.
But in general they play close games when they lose the last two years.
they lost 6 games last year by an average of about 5 points a game and none of the losses were by more than a td and this year their non tosu loss was by a td at cal which is not a bad effort at all.
For those that don't know let me set up the first quarter of the tosu game for you. msu comes out pumped up and forces a punt from the bucks. Then tosu forces a three and out and the punter kicks the ball 33 yards and tosu returns it 9 or 10 yards to michigan st territory for a net gain of 23 or 24 yards on the punt , so it is like a turnover. bucks score a td. Very next drive in tosu territory msu fumbles the ball and tosu returns it to the mich st 17. they score. mich st goes three and out and tosu starts near midfield again and complete a long pass and score on the next play. BAM just like that mich st down 21-0 and their hearts are broken. <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
I want to also comment on the "MSU sucks" thoughts as I've read them all year...quietly this team has had themselves a pretty nice season, yet they get no respect...oddsmakers know this and thus the reason for the high line (trying to detour Penn St. money while trying to attrack Michigan St. money)...they are a physical football team and I can't remember in the two years that Dantinio has coached them, having seen them get blown out...
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
You are correct .. under dantonio they have not been blown out at all other than the ohio state game a few weeks back and that was a comedy of errors at the start of the game that led to a disheartening of the team. In fact , msu might ahve even more to prove as a result of that game.
But in general they play close games when they lose the last two years.
they lost 6 games last year by an average of about 5 points a game and none of the losses were by more than a td and this year their non tosu loss was by a td at cal which is not a bad effort at all.
For those that don't know let me set up the first quarter of the tosu game for you. msu comes out pumped up and forces a punt from the bucks. Then tosu forces a three and out and the punter kicks the ball 33 yards and tosu returns it 9 or 10 yards to michigan st territory for a net gain of 23 or 24 yards on the punt , so it is like a turnover. bucks score a td. Very next drive in tosu territory msu fumbles the ball and tosu returns it to the mich st 17. they score. mich st goes three and out and tosu starts near midfield again and complete a long pass and score on the next play. BAM just like that mich st down 21-0 and their hearts are broken. <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
qucikly with the recaps of last week from worst capped to best capped
sjsu/nevada under 53 LOSER -- I didn't see a play of the game but it went over with 7 minutes left in the fourth quarter. I actually don't feel too bad about the bet as sjsu had just 11 first downs but still managed 17 points which helped to give nevada the impetus to keep scoring. the final was 41-17 so i lost by less than a td. The reason i am not entirely happy about how i capped the game has to do with nevada rushing for 333 yards. Yes some of that is exhaustion by the defense but i felt the sjsu run defense matched up decently with nevada and it turned out differently as two different nevada players rushed for over 100 yards. The score was 3-0 halfway through the second quarter so it did take an eruption of sorts to lose the wager but it was an eruption i did not see coming. Having nto watched the game i am limited to box score and play by play.
purdue/iowa over 43.5 loser --Well this was another game that i failed to see any of as i was stuck with the other big ten yawners last week. But i can't feel bad about this bet. the final score was 22-17 and the teams combined for 657 yards and 38 first downs so that would usually get this over the number. Had a feeling that iowa was in a letdown spot and considered a purdue play last week and unfortunately iowa scored less than i expected because they were obviosuly flat. Had a good week of capping so the fact this and the previous game were my two worst capped games maked me feel pretty good this week.
notre dame -3 / over 52 winner/loser -- the irish game was a hotly debated one last week and the irish did in fact dominate as i expected ..... but they didnt do it the way that i expected. In a lot of ways this was my worst capped game. What i mean is that i really felt going into the game that notre dame would brutalize the navy secondary but that never really happened outside of a small stretch of time at the end of the first half when they went 4 wide while running the hurry up. Clausen played poorly again but Weis had a different gameplan and pouned the navy rush defense. i did think nd could have success doing that but not nearly like they did as they gashed navy all game long. i also did not think the irish could stuff the navy run attack that dominantly , hence the over bet. With that siad , had notre dame not fumbled inside the 5 yardline and not blown numerous other chances with turnovers i might ahve won both bets. Was in a strange position at the end of the game when it was 27-21 (after an incredible series of events when navy recovered not one but two onside kicks ) where i was cheering for navy to score..... and then hoping for a missed extra point or a late td from nd. But navy fell short. Not really a wonderfully capped game imo as notre dame dominated and moved the ball but not the way i expected them to and navy did not move the ball the way i expected them to. hmm maybe my worst capped game ?
oregon -3 winner -- i don't want to spend much time recapping this one. oregon benefitted from some early turnovers and jumped out to a huge lead ( 48-21 ) but zona fought back ( never seem to quit when i need it ) and actually had the game cut to 3 points with the ball. You could have popped popcorn in my ears at that point. oergon ended zona comeback though and added a td for the win. zona had a 527 to 504 yardage edge and a 30-18 first down edge ... granted a lot came from oregon letting up but this was a very annoying game for me.
buffalo/akron under 61 loser -- i have really not run too lucky on the weekday games this year with louisville vs uconn and tcu at utah coming to mind and this one fell right in with those. To make a long story short the game was 24-17 with 23 seconds left when akron scored a td to tie .. so 48 points in regulation with a last second score ... still had a decent chance of winning the bet despite overtime but that did not happen either as it went to not one , not two , not three but four overtimes. No problem with this bet at all , sometimes when you bet an under an overtime jumps up and bites you in the ass. nothing you can do about it so you just move forward.
ncstate +4 winner -- this was the first bet i made last week and it was a good one. this team doesn't seem to be getting any respect right now but o'brie has them playing good ball. From a bet perspective i felt good about this bet for virtually the entire game. ncstate had a 21-17 first down edge and wake outgained state by a little over 30 yards. But the thing is that owen spencer must have dropped over 100 yards of receiving in this game. The guy dropped a perfect pass that would have resulted in a td and a few more key ones. Wake also had a key drop that would have made them take the lead 24-21 late but that would have still been a winning bet. This was an enjoyable game to watch as i felt both teams played a high level of football. much different than the mac tilt i was involved with this week.
Maryland +3 winner --this was a good bet. unc lone td came on a long pass that cameron sexton threw up for grabs , was tipped by a terp defender and somehow found its way to a tarheel receiver for a 60 yard td. outside of that unc was held to 3 fg attempts , two of which they made and a safety on a bad snap on a punt play by maryland. terps had a 27-11 first down edge ( nice ) and 336-285 yardage edge ( again skewed by the sixty yard fluke play ).
Texas -13 winner -- Had it not been for one of the catches of the year on a fourth down play , kansas would have been shutout in this game. Texas controlled the game form start to finish , dominating the jayhawks in their own house. This was a bitch slap. 25-18 first down edge and 421 - 305 yardage edge and that doesnt do the game justice. easy winner here and played out jsut about how i expected to a T.
ucf +7.5 winner -- the seven and a ahlf poitn favorite had 8 first downs. I said that they would struggle to score on ucf underrated defense but they even exceeded my expectations. 17-8 first down edge for the dog and a 242 - 229 yardage edge. ucf benefitted from 4 marshall turnovers while committing just one and tht includes a fumble recovery for a td. have to feel good when the 7.5 point dog wins outright 30-14 and it makes me feel good because the bet was centered around marshall lack of ability to score and that is how it played out.
sjsu/nevada under 53 LOSER -- I didn't see a play of the game but it went over with 7 minutes left in the fourth quarter. I actually don't feel too bad about the bet as sjsu had just 11 first downs but still managed 17 points which helped to give nevada the impetus to keep scoring. the final was 41-17 so i lost by less than a td. The reason i am not entirely happy about how i capped the game has to do with nevada rushing for 333 yards. Yes some of that is exhaustion by the defense but i felt the sjsu run defense matched up decently with nevada and it turned out differently as two different nevada players rushed for over 100 yards. The score was 3-0 halfway through the second quarter so it did take an eruption of sorts to lose the wager but it was an eruption i did not see coming. Having nto watched the game i am limited to box score and play by play.
purdue/iowa over 43.5 loser --Well this was another game that i failed to see any of as i was stuck with the other big ten yawners last week. But i can't feel bad about this bet. the final score was 22-17 and the teams combined for 657 yards and 38 first downs so that would usually get this over the number. Had a feeling that iowa was in a letdown spot and considered a purdue play last week and unfortunately iowa scored less than i expected because they were obviosuly flat. Had a good week of capping so the fact this and the previous game were my two worst capped games maked me feel pretty good this week.
notre dame -3 / over 52 winner/loser -- the irish game was a hotly debated one last week and the irish did in fact dominate as i expected ..... but they didnt do it the way that i expected. In a lot of ways this was my worst capped game. What i mean is that i really felt going into the game that notre dame would brutalize the navy secondary but that never really happened outside of a small stretch of time at the end of the first half when they went 4 wide while running the hurry up. Clausen played poorly again but Weis had a different gameplan and pouned the navy rush defense. i did think nd could have success doing that but not nearly like they did as they gashed navy all game long. i also did not think the irish could stuff the navy run attack that dominantly , hence the over bet. With that siad , had notre dame not fumbled inside the 5 yardline and not blown numerous other chances with turnovers i might ahve won both bets. Was in a strange position at the end of the game when it was 27-21 (after an incredible series of events when navy recovered not one but two onside kicks ) where i was cheering for navy to score..... and then hoping for a missed extra point or a late td from nd. But navy fell short. Not really a wonderfully capped game imo as notre dame dominated and moved the ball but not the way i expected them to and navy did not move the ball the way i expected them to. hmm maybe my worst capped game ?
oregon -3 winner -- i don't want to spend much time recapping this one. oregon benefitted from some early turnovers and jumped out to a huge lead ( 48-21 ) but zona fought back ( never seem to quit when i need it ) and actually had the game cut to 3 points with the ball. You could have popped popcorn in my ears at that point. oergon ended zona comeback though and added a td for the win. zona had a 527 to 504 yardage edge and a 30-18 first down edge ... granted a lot came from oregon letting up but this was a very annoying game for me.
buffalo/akron under 61 loser -- i have really not run too lucky on the weekday games this year with louisville vs uconn and tcu at utah coming to mind and this one fell right in with those. To make a long story short the game was 24-17 with 23 seconds left when akron scored a td to tie .. so 48 points in regulation with a last second score ... still had a decent chance of winning the bet despite overtime but that did not happen either as it went to not one , not two , not three but four overtimes. No problem with this bet at all , sometimes when you bet an under an overtime jumps up and bites you in the ass. nothing you can do about it so you just move forward.
ncstate +4 winner -- this was the first bet i made last week and it was a good one. this team doesn't seem to be getting any respect right now but o'brie has them playing good ball. From a bet perspective i felt good about this bet for virtually the entire game. ncstate had a 21-17 first down edge and wake outgained state by a little over 30 yards. But the thing is that owen spencer must have dropped over 100 yards of receiving in this game. The guy dropped a perfect pass that would have resulted in a td and a few more key ones. Wake also had a key drop that would have made them take the lead 24-21 late but that would have still been a winning bet. This was an enjoyable game to watch as i felt both teams played a high level of football. much different than the mac tilt i was involved with this week.
Maryland +3 winner --this was a good bet. unc lone td came on a long pass that cameron sexton threw up for grabs , was tipped by a terp defender and somehow found its way to a tarheel receiver for a 60 yard td. outside of that unc was held to 3 fg attempts , two of which they made and a safety on a bad snap on a punt play by maryland. terps had a 27-11 first down edge ( nice ) and 336-285 yardage edge ( again skewed by the sixty yard fluke play ).
Texas -13 winner -- Had it not been for one of the catches of the year on a fourth down play , kansas would have been shutout in this game. Texas controlled the game form start to finish , dominating the jayhawks in their own house. This was a bitch slap. 25-18 first down edge and 421 - 305 yardage edge and that doesnt do the game justice. easy winner here and played out jsut about how i expected to a T.
ucf +7.5 winner -- the seven and a ahlf poitn favorite had 8 first downs. I said that they would struggle to score on ucf underrated defense but they even exceeded my expectations. 17-8 first down edge for the dog and a 242 - 229 yardage edge. ucf benefitted from 4 marshall turnovers while committing just one and tht includes a fumble recovery for a td. have to feel good when the 7.5 point dog wins outright 30-14 and it makes me feel good because the bet was centered around marshall lack of ability to score and that is how it played out.
tunasunday
Pretty much a regular
VK--I am trying to figure out all the Wake Forest love, it seems that other respected cappers are on Wake as well.
I know that you stated in your recap that you felt that Wake was playing at a high level in the loss at NCSU last week, but it seems to me that these teams (BC and Wake) are moving in opposite directions.
I have been very impressed with the Defense of BC since halftime of the Clemson game. They are getting turnovers and continue to stuff the run even with Toal out for the year. I see Wake's OL having matchup problems with BC's DL this week.
Crane is still turnover prone, but he is getting it done in Logan's offense, many times, albeit ungracefully, with his legs. After getting the majority of a season's worth of experience under his belt, Crane seems like he is grasping the offense and improving game after game.
Motivation-wise, BC controls their destiny for the division championship, after assuming that pole position from Wake after Wake's loss last week. One would have to think that Wake is somewhat demoralized now that they need help to reach the ACC Championship game because of a loss against a team in which they were favored to defeat.
I understand that sometimes pressure can outweigh motivation in affecting performance, but off the heels of a shut out of Notre Dame followed by a nice W in Tallahasee, BC seems to be peaking.
Still no word on Josh Adams getting healthier to allow for more touches, nor any word on Swank's return. These are big factors deterring me from playing Wake--Wake has not been the same team of the last couple of years with these players out of the lineup.
Coaching advantage, home field, and very small chalk seem to be factors to bet Wake. It may be tough for BC to get "up" this week for a consecutive conference road game, with significant travel, after the big win at FSU--this should hold weight in the equation as well.
I just see BC as a better team at the moment and I don't think the situation outweighs the disparity of talent and performance between the two teams that I have seen recently. I haven't played BC yet and may not at this point, but I am curious as to what you fellas on Wake this week are seeing that I am missing.
I know that you stated in your recap that you felt that Wake was playing at a high level in the loss at NCSU last week, but it seems to me that these teams (BC and Wake) are moving in opposite directions.
I have been very impressed with the Defense of BC since halftime of the Clemson game. They are getting turnovers and continue to stuff the run even with Toal out for the year. I see Wake's OL having matchup problems with BC's DL this week.
Crane is still turnover prone, but he is getting it done in Logan's offense, many times, albeit ungracefully, with his legs. After getting the majority of a season's worth of experience under his belt, Crane seems like he is grasping the offense and improving game after game.
Motivation-wise, BC controls their destiny for the division championship, after assuming that pole position from Wake after Wake's loss last week. One would have to think that Wake is somewhat demoralized now that they need help to reach the ACC Championship game because of a loss against a team in which they were favored to defeat.
I understand that sometimes pressure can outweigh motivation in affecting performance, but off the heels of a shut out of Notre Dame followed by a nice W in Tallahasee, BC seems to be peaking.
Still no word on Josh Adams getting healthier to allow for more touches, nor any word on Swank's return. These are big factors deterring me from playing Wake--Wake has not been the same team of the last couple of years with these players out of the lineup.
Coaching advantage, home field, and very small chalk seem to be factors to bet Wake. It may be tough for BC to get "up" this week for a consecutive conference road game, with significant travel, after the big win at FSU--this should hold weight in the equation as well.
I just see BC as a better team at the moment and I don't think the situation outweighs the disparity of talent and performance between the two teams that I have seen recently. I haven't played BC yet and may not at this point, but I am curious as to what you fellas on Wake this week are seeing that I am missing.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I think you make a lot of good points. BC is playing better football not just recently but the entire season as compared to wake. I'll give my opinion to most of your key statements here to give my perspective ...
but it seems to me that these teams (BC and Wake) are moving in opposite directions.
I certainly think BC has been improving and that i have under rated their defense most of the year. But i also think that wake has been getting better lately as well. So while i think you make a good point about bc peaking right now , i would not go as far as to say the two teams are going opposite directions.
I have been very impressed with the Defense of BC since halftime of the Clemson game. They are getting turnovers and continue to stuff the run even with Toal out for the year. I see Wake's OL having matchup problems with BC's DL this week.
I have too. It's kind of amazing how well they have played. But I am also a believer that non-offensive td are pretty flukish and this team has gotten very lucky in that regard this year and especially recently. I am not a huge believer in past turnovers being indicative of future turnovers except for specific QB's , or specific schemes. The eagles had an 87 yard int for td against fsu , a 76 yard int return for a td against notre dame , a blocked punt for td against clemson , a fumble return for td against unc , and an int return and a punt return for td against virginia tech. That kind of stuff usually doesn't keep happening and the main reason that it seems unlikely here is that Riley Skinner is about the least likely candidate to make those kinds of mistakes in the entire conference. He has thrown an interception in just two games all year and just one in conference all year. I agree that wake will have to work hard to have success vs the bc defensive line.
Crane is still turnover prone, but he is getting it done in Logan's offense, many times, albeit ungracefully, with his legs. After getting the majority of a season's worth of experience under his belt, Crane seems like he is grasping the offense and improving game after game.
The same problems exist for this offense that have all year. They lack any playmakers. Crane turnover problems is partly because he is forced to throw to less open receivers than most other qb. They simply lack speed and quality at the wr positions. There is a reason that Boston college is in the bottom 10 in the nation in yards per attempt passing the ball this year. They can't stretch the field. In the offseason , i stated that i thought wake forest had the best secondary in college football coming into the year. I went out on a limb and i was wrong. But it is certainly one of the best in the nation. Very difficult for me to see boston college torching them in winston-salem. So i view this as a terrible matchup problem for boston college and i can't envision them getting a bunch on the ground against the wake defense either. In fact , while i am not a proponent of handicapping for turnovers .... the crane vs wake secondary vs the boston college secondary vs skinner ... i would predict that wake does no worse in the interception dept.
Motivation-wise, BC controls their destiny for the division championship, after assuming that pole position from Wake after Wake's loss last week. One would have to think that Wake is somewhat demoralized now that they need help to reach the ACC Championship game because of a loss against a team in which they were favored to defeat.
Both teams should be motivated here but i think it is fair to give boston college an edge in motivation. The bcs is more within their grasp. Who would have thought they could do that while losing playmakers on defense and matt ryan to the nfl ? However there should be concerns about them possible being flat. They played a very emotional game vs a big rival notre dame and followed that up with a long travel to tallahassee where they again won a very emotional game. Now they travel back to boston from florida and back down to winston-salem. Tough little sequence and as a friend fo mine likes to say , it is tough to get up 3 weeks in a row in college football. So i don't think it is a given that BC comes out on all cylinders here.
Still no word on Josh Adams getting healthier to allow for more touches, nor any word on Swank's return. These are big factors deterring me from playing Wake--Wake has not been the same team of the last couple of years with these players out of the lineup.
I was so impressed with pendergrass that i am not too worried about the status of josh adams for this one. As far as Swank. I have made this bet as if he is not going to be playing. However he was apparently kicking nerf balls last week and that means there is atleast a chance he plays this week and he might be worth 2 points in the line. Boston college fg kicking is sickly bad so far this year so if we get swank we get a huge edge.
Coaching advantage, home field, and very small chalk seem to be factors to bet Wake. It may be tough for BC to get "up" this week for a consecutive conference road game, with significant travel, after the big win at FSU--this should hold weight in the equation as well.
I feel a qb advantage and kicking advantage as well. I also think the notre dame game followed by the fsu game has to take some toll. Whether that is overcome by the possibility of a conference championship and a bcs bid , i cant say.
I just see BC as a better team at the moment and I don't think the situation outweighs the disparity of talent and performance between the two teams that I have seen recently. I haven't played BC yet and may not at this point, but I am curious as to what you fellas on Wake this week are seeing that I am missing.
I just think that the non-offensive scores makes this BC team look better than what they actually are and has allowed them to play from the lead in a lot of their games recently. I don't see a talent disparity in favor of boston college at all so we will just have to disagree there.
What i really like in this game is how wake forest matches up defensively with boston college. At home , i think wake really controls the line of scrimmage and boston college will be forced to throw and wake sports one of the better secondaries in the college game imo. This should keep boston college down and their fg kicking is so bad that i think that could come into play in a low scoring game. I also think that skinner has had success in the past vs the bc defense , though they have had incredibly poor success running on the eagles.
line indicates that boston college would be a 6 point favorite at home as well ... seems high.
tunasunday
Pretty much a regular
^^^^^^
Exactly why I asked. Wow. Thanks for the time Kyle.
I'll revisit the game later in the week, I can't bring myself to take Wake, but maybe I'm off BC now. It is a free ticket to Skid Row going against the quality cappers that are on Wake this week.
Exactly why I asked. Wow. Thanks for the time Kyle.
I'll revisit the game later in the week, I can't bring myself to take Wake, but maybe I'm off BC now. It is a free ticket to Skid Row going against the quality cappers that are on Wake this week.
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
excellent stuff on the wake game fellas....
kyle, you're not interested at all in michigan?
kyle, you're not interested at all in michigan?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
it's actually my least favorite play , tuna. But i am a one unit player. it either qualifies or it doesn't.
The fact that some quality cappers like it as well is nice though. It is not as if it would be a shock if bc came away with a win. Just going where i think the value is.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
The big ten game i am least interested in from a betting standpoint.
Huge spread for a rivalry game but michigan gets 16 first downs per game against average defenses. I can't expect more than 13 or 14 first downs from them on the road at ohio state. I can't back a team when i see that. And this is a rare case where you have a huge favorite that is focused on the opponent. The is "The Game" so you don't get a lackluster effort from the big favorite either.
The other problem i have is if michigan falls behind early this could get real ugly.
No interest at all in laying the points myself but also can easily see tosu running away with this game.
i think i will just enjoy the nice banter we get at the site between all the michigan guys and all the tosu guys.
you probably have a better feel for this matchup than i do ..... i wont be betting it.
O
O-State
Guest
I started to look into the Wake - BC game myself.
Initially I said the home field here would be big, and with Wake coming off a loss and BC off that win, well you know how this conferece works.
Another thing was Wake db's vs. Crane. Now I'm not sure I'm sold on either side here.
----The Crane miscues have gone down. I think if you look at the beginning of the season, BC was putting up big pass yards. They were putting it in Crane's hands. From GT to UNC, a five game stretch, Crane had 12 picks. But they also had a 428 pass outing and 3 games over 200.
Now the last 3 Clemson, Notre Dame, and Florida State, the pass yardage has taken a dip. 116, 79, and 181.
If you break it down, BC still put the ball in Crane's hands vs. Clemson. 39 pass attempts to 30 rushes. What happened there is Clemson is the 6th ranked pass defense and top 20 pass effeciency.
----The Notre Dame game and Florida STate games are where I see a change in offensive philosophy.....Steve Logan finally getting over Matty ice era and saying we have to run the ball. Cause really they couldn't run it last year either, and I think they know they have to this year.
22 passes to 41 rushes vs. ND.
27 passes to 27 rushes vs. FSU.
Here was there ratio from earlier in the season
UCF 41 pass 37 rush
NCSTU 33 pass 22 rush
VT 32 pass 37 rush
UNC 42 pass 21 rush
Clems 39 pass 30 rush
ND 22 pass 41 rush
FSU 27 pass 47 rush
The Kent and GT games to start the season were run dominated, and after that GT loss maybe they decided to throw it more, I don't know. Cause the next game UCF they did not need to have a higher number of throws to win easily, and yet they did. And ND and FSU are only two games but IMO I think it could be Logan changing a back a little. As a result, the run game has gotten better now, they actually can run it, and Crane is not throwing picks, they are playing ball control -- with a deadly defense. THAT is the way to win games.
------Wake,------Baylor, Ole Miss, FSU, Navy, Clemson, ---- about what I expected from this Wake team you know. Solid veteran club with one of best secondaries in the land right. Well take a look at Maryland, Miami, Duke, Virginia, NCST. Dissapointing.
They have given up rush yards, they have given up pass yards since Clemson. More than expected. They have had 3 losses and two wins, one in OT vs. Duke, since the Clemson game. And they had to win the TO battle 4-1 to beat Duke at home in Overtime. Giving up 145 rushing to Duke is hard to trust in. Stats similar vs. Virginia at home and won TO battle 4-1 as well. They never should of lost to Maryland in that fashion, and the "wake" of the first 5 games, wouldn't of we expected them to beat North Carolina State, even though NCSTU is improving Wake needed that win.
---Overall I like the fact Wake is at home, but the Wake has been recently it's hard to trust them. Meanwhile BC seems to be going to a ball control offense and Crane has only thrown 1 pick his last three. Wake, I see them having more trouble moving it then BC. Wake quite frankly has had trouble the entire season putting points up, this team has to win with their defense and no turnovers and being opportunisitc. 167, 173 on ND and FSU, those are good rush stats recently for BC.
I still think if Wake has a good effort they can win this game. But I'm not sure I'd be surprised if BC won, or if Wake won.
Initially I said the home field here would be big, and with Wake coming off a loss and BC off that win, well you know how this conferece works.
Another thing was Wake db's vs. Crane. Now I'm not sure I'm sold on either side here.
----The Crane miscues have gone down. I think if you look at the beginning of the season, BC was putting up big pass yards. They were putting it in Crane's hands. From GT to UNC, a five game stretch, Crane had 12 picks. But they also had a 428 pass outing and 3 games over 200.
Now the last 3 Clemson, Notre Dame, and Florida State, the pass yardage has taken a dip. 116, 79, and 181.
If you break it down, BC still put the ball in Crane's hands vs. Clemson. 39 pass attempts to 30 rushes. What happened there is Clemson is the 6th ranked pass defense and top 20 pass effeciency.
----The Notre Dame game and Florida STate games are where I see a change in offensive philosophy.....Steve Logan finally getting over Matty ice era and saying we have to run the ball. Cause really they couldn't run it last year either, and I think they know they have to this year.
22 passes to 41 rushes vs. ND.
27 passes to 27 rushes vs. FSU.
Here was there ratio from earlier in the season
UCF 41 pass 37 rush
NCSTU 33 pass 22 rush
VT 32 pass 37 rush
UNC 42 pass 21 rush
Clems 39 pass 30 rush
ND 22 pass 41 rush
FSU 27 pass 47 rush
The Kent and GT games to start the season were run dominated, and after that GT loss maybe they decided to throw it more, I don't know. Cause the next game UCF they did not need to have a higher number of throws to win easily, and yet they did. And ND and FSU are only two games but IMO I think it could be Logan changing a back a little. As a result, the run game has gotten better now, they actually can run it, and Crane is not throwing picks, they are playing ball control -- with a deadly defense. THAT is the way to win games.
------Wake,------Baylor, Ole Miss, FSU, Navy, Clemson, ---- about what I expected from this Wake team you know. Solid veteran club with one of best secondaries in the land right. Well take a look at Maryland, Miami, Duke, Virginia, NCST. Dissapointing.
They have given up rush yards, they have given up pass yards since Clemson. More than expected. They have had 3 losses and two wins, one in OT vs. Duke, since the Clemson game. And they had to win the TO battle 4-1 to beat Duke at home in Overtime. Giving up 145 rushing to Duke is hard to trust in. Stats similar vs. Virginia at home and won TO battle 4-1 as well. They never should of lost to Maryland in that fashion, and the "wake" of the first 5 games, wouldn't of we expected them to beat North Carolina State, even though NCSTU is improving Wake needed that win.
---Overall I like the fact Wake is at home, but the Wake has been recently it's hard to trust them. Meanwhile BC seems to be going to a ball control offense and Crane has only thrown 1 pick his last three. Wake, I see them having more trouble moving it then BC. Wake quite frankly has had trouble the entire season putting points up, this team has to win with their defense and no turnovers and being opportunisitc. 167, 173 on ND and FSU, those are good rush stats recently for BC.
I still think if Wake has a good effort they can win this game. But I'm not sure I'd be surprised if BC won, or if Wake won.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
huge coaching mismatch in your favor but i think it is oregon state that is not playing well lately. We will see.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Great post ( which is your M.O. ).
There are definite concerns with the bet. We have the underachievers vs the overachievers. But it is accounted for in the line obviously.
Those bc rush stats were benefitting from the fact that they had big early leads. 47 attempts for 3.7 a carry in the fsu game ( which i am not saying is bad ) and 41 attempts at 4.1 a carry vs notre dame. I won't be shocked if bc somehow pulls out a win but if it is by ramming it down wakes throat , i will be surprised.
It's impossible to not have some concern when looking over the duke game but i like what i saw from wake forest last game and in the virginia game for the most part.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i obviously won't like it neraly as much.
Thanks for the pm with the injury info ETG , much appreciated.
For a primetime espn game i am thinking if Nesbit can go he definitely will. Bye week should have helped a lot , i would think.
But if he doesn't go i have probably lost whatever edge i have. So yes , it matters imo.
This bet was made under the assumption that he is playing.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
added louisville +7 ... i'm sure they will make me regret it.
eliminated nevada, wyoming and ole miss today.
nevada -- after watching the cmich game i dont want to compete against big money
wyoming -- after handicapping the game a second time my final line came out slightly different. not good enough.
ole miss -- i missed my number and when that happens i rarely get involved , that includes this one.
eliminated nevada, wyoming and ole miss today.
nevada -- after watching the cmich game i dont want to compete against big money
wyoming -- after handicapping the game a second time my final line came out slightly different. not good enough.
ole miss -- i missed my number and when that happens i rarely get involved , that includes this one.
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
Well, whats keeping me off this game right now is that Zona is strong at home and OSU hasn't been strong on the road (2-3). Both teams have rivalry games next week but OSU is also still in this P10 race so that is the focus at hand. I think Zona will find it tough to run on OSU but think Rogers will be able to find some seams in the defense. OSU is real hot right now, got the better rush defense, more to play for, and they are dogs. Zona is due for a win though since their games have gone W-L-W-L-W-L in their last 6. OSU is a lean for me here, but def worried about their road play. Zona is a team I have a hard time reading
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i decided with central michigan , nevada and byu that i wont attempt to beat millions of dollars.........
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
O
O-State
Guest
Kyle, looked at Virginia and Zona myself and didn't see enough so it's not on my board anymore.
Virginia off a bye. Rushing wise, I think both these teams when you look at common opponents have been pretty similar.
Common opponents ----Clemson-----221-123 vs. Mryld, 21-156 @ Wake, 51-207 vs. GT, 140-83 Duke
Common opponents -----Virginia----201-75 vs. Mryld, 28-143 @ Wake, 126-156 @ GT, 110-84 @ Duke
So the rushing battle looks even as can be, except that Davis and Spiller are more explosive. This turns to he passing battle, and what jumps out at me is the pass yardage Clemson has been winning games with. That is how Clemson has been winning games or playing since this coaching change. 252, 237, 326 in their last three games, and out passed them by 455 yards combined. The Clemson pass defense is stellar, one of the best nationally. BUT, the pass defense for Virginia is nearly as good. And the UVA pass offense has put up not bad numbers. So I am not sure I see an advantage here anywhere, ..on paper. If anything UVA has played much better at home, and they are coming off a bye week.
---One advantage for Virginia I see is they are 14th in sacks and that young Clemson O-line is 96 in sacks allowed.
OSU 42 rush O, 22 rush D, 27 pass offense, 20 pass defense, 26 efficiency
Zona 41 rush O, 59 rush D, 35 pass offense, 11 pass defense, 16 efficiency
Zona home field big at night they are great there. And they haven’t lost back to back games yet. IMO OSU lose one or both of last two. This is not a Rose Bowl caliber team IMO, only in discussion due to soft schedule. They could win this one and then lose to Oregon, which might be more likely because Oregon will run on their ass. That run defense is better but due to schedule it’s not fixed, it’s a façade, or simply still exposable when facing the right team.
--I think Zona has been Money at home at night and after a loss should be a lean simply on that. Again, one advantage I do see is in the sack department, Oregon State is 17th nationally in sacks and Zona is 87th in sacks allowed.
Virginia off a bye. Rushing wise, I think both these teams when you look at common opponents have been pretty similar.
Common opponents ----Clemson-----221-123 vs. Mryld, 21-156 @ Wake, 51-207 vs. GT, 140-83 Duke
Common opponents -----Virginia----201-75 vs. Mryld, 28-143 @ Wake, 126-156 @ GT, 110-84 @ Duke
So the rushing battle looks even as can be, except that Davis and Spiller are more explosive. This turns to he passing battle, and what jumps out at me is the pass yardage Clemson has been winning games with. That is how Clemson has been winning games or playing since this coaching change. 252, 237, 326 in their last three games, and out passed them by 455 yards combined. The Clemson pass defense is stellar, one of the best nationally. BUT, the pass defense for Virginia is nearly as good. And the UVA pass offense has put up not bad numbers. So I am not sure I see an advantage here anywhere, ..on paper. If anything UVA has played much better at home, and they are coming off a bye week.
---One advantage for Virginia I see is they are 14th in sacks and that young Clemson O-line is 96 in sacks allowed.
OSU 42 rush O, 22 rush D, 27 pass offense, 20 pass defense, 26 efficiency
Zona 41 rush O, 59 rush D, 35 pass offense, 11 pass defense, 16 efficiency
Zona home field big at night they are great there. And they haven’t lost back to back games yet. IMO OSU lose one or both of last two. This is not a Rose Bowl caliber team IMO, only in discussion due to soft schedule. They could win this one and then lose to Oregon, which might be more likely because Oregon will run on their ass. That run defense is better but due to schedule it’s not fixed, it’s a façade, or simply still exposable when facing the right team.
--I think Zona has been Money at home at night and after a loss should be a lean simply on that. Again, one advantage I do see is in the sack department, Oregon State is 17th nationally in sacks and Zona is 87th in sacks allowed.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Always nice to have an easy winner that is never in doubt .... especially considering my midweek struggles this year. Here is the box
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead vAlign=top><TD colSpan=6>Scoring Summary</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=middle><TD align=left colSpan=4>FIRST QUARTER</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">MIA</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">GT</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD align=left>
</TD><TD>FG</TD><TD>05:53</TD><TD>Scott Blair 21 Yd </TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=middle><TD align=left colSpan=4>SECOND QUARTER</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">MIA</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">GT</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD align=left>
</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>13:28</TD><TD>Michael Johnson 26 Yd Interception Return (Scott Blair Kick) </TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>10</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD align=left>
</TD><TD>FG</TD><TD>06:19</TD><TD>Matt Bosher 24 Yd </TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>10</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD align=left>
</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>06:01</TD><TD>Jonathan Dwyer 58 Yd Run (Scott Blair Kick) </TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>17</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD align=left>
</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>01:59</TD><TD>Jonathan Dwyer 6 Yd Run (Scott Blair Kick) </TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>24</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=middle><TD align=left colSpan=4>THIRD QUARTER</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">MIA</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">GT</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD align=left>
</TD><TD>FG</TD><TD>10:10</TD><TD>Scott Blair 30 Yd </TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>27</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD align=left>
</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>07:46</TD><TD>Dedrick Epps 18 Yd Pass From Robert Marve (Matt Bosher Kick) </TD><TD align=middle>10</TD><TD align=middle>27</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD align=left>
</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>04:08</TD><TD>Josh Nesbitt 1 Yd Run (Scott Blair Kick) </TD><TD align=middle>10</TD><TD align=middle>34</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD align=left>
</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>02:07</TD><TD>Lucas Cox 32 Yd Run (Scott Blair Kick) </TD><TD align=middle>10</TD><TD align=middle>41</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=middle><TD align=left colSpan=4>FOURTH QUARTER</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">MIA</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">GT</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD align=left>
</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>10:22</TD><TD>Leonard Hankerson 13 Yd Pass From Jacory Harris (Two-Point Conversion Failed) </TD><TD align=middle>16</TD><TD align=middle>41</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD align=left>
</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>01:18</TD><TD>Kayne Farquharson 25 Yd Pass From Jacory Harris (Matt Bosher Kick) </TD><TD align=middle>23</TD><TD align=middle>41</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>
</TD><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>18</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>3-13</TD><TD>3-10</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>1-2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>388</TD><TD>518</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>283</TD><TD>46</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>23-38</TD><TD>4-7</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>7.4</TD><TD>6.6</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>105</TD><TD>472</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>56</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>4.2</TD><TD>8.4</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>3-20</TD><TD>3-40</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>27:19</TD><TD>32:41</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead vAlign=top><TD colSpan=6>Scoring Summary</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=middle><TD align=left colSpan=4>FIRST QUARTER</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">MIA</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30px">GT</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD align=left>
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>
</TD><TD>3-13</TD><TD>3-10</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>1-2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>388</TD><TD>518</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>283</TD><TD>46</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>23-38</TD><TD>4-7</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>7.4</TD><TD>6.6</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>105</TD><TD>472</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>56</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>4.2</TD><TD>8.4</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>3-20</TD><TD>3-40</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>27:19</TD><TD>32:41</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
GL . Probably staying away from this one . Ole Miss is to me the type of team who looks great when they are clicking but to much inconsistency this year IMO. Hard for me to believe that the consistent play continues . LSU is just a puzzle thats hard to piece together in terms of figuring out just how they should be lined . I played Troy and found myself worried that LSU might find a crazy way to cover somehow . :cheers:
Good stuff VK. Think we agree on everything but 2 games Mich State and NC State . had Miami today and either have or looking to add the others .
The Penn St game to me comes down to jus how crisp Penn State is . They play well on both sids of the ball for 4 quarters and I think they win by 17-21 they dont then Mich State might be able to hang around . All things considered a good game by the Lion defense should keep State around 10 pts maybe 13 . So going with 31-10 for now . Think the total is tight but would say under if Penn State returns to top form.
NCState has certainly been on a nice run ATS but think they come in a tad short here . Especially if we see Yates at QB . Was thinking -13 w/o him but would feel certain about -13 with him . I think I had boith State and Maryland last week and in the end they barely did enough to win those games vs these teams . Think WF had an INT and 2 TODs deep in Wolfpack territory and somehow the Deacons couldnt score when they had the ball on the State 13 and ended with only 3 pts . meanwhile all the meaningful drives for State ended in TDs which happened to be the 3 best drives they had. UNC going to put the pressure on the passing game to move the offense and Wilson has been real solid put not impressed with the stats persay. UNC has taken care of BC and GT recently and expect they do get a DD win here (have it at -10 -125) .
Looking for a 31-13 game ...
GL:cheers:
The Penn St game to me comes down to jus how crisp Penn State is . They play well on both sids of the ball for 4 quarters and I think they win by 17-21 they dont then Mich State might be able to hang around . All things considered a good game by the Lion defense should keep State around 10 pts maybe 13 . So going with 31-10 for now . Think the total is tight but would say under if Penn State returns to top form.
NCState has certainly been on a nice run ATS but think they come in a tad short here . Especially if we see Yates at QB . Was thinking -13 w/o him but would feel certain about -13 with him . I think I had boith State and Maryland last week and in the end they barely did enough to win those games vs these teams . Think WF had an INT and 2 TODs deep in Wolfpack territory and somehow the Deacons couldnt score when they had the ball on the State 13 and ended with only 3 pts . meanwhile all the meaningful drives for State ended in TDs which happened to be the 3 best drives they had. UNC going to put the pressure on the passing game to move the offense and Wilson has been real solid put not impressed with the stats persay. UNC has taken care of BC and GT recently and expect they do get a DD win here (have it at -10 -125) .
Looking for a 31-13 game ...
GL:cheers:
BG , Toledo , SJST , Purdue , NC , Clemson , Louisville , Yenny , Ark State , Cal , WF , ILL , Iowa State , Penn State , Nevada , UAB , LSU , Zona , ULL , Oklahoma are what I am looking at or on . Trying to weed out the crap . Only definite is BG for Friday as the others are leans waiting on Davis status at RB before I decide .
GL
GL
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Have a lot in common this week for a change. gl .. think bob hit bgsu so might want to check that line. not positive though just noticed it move in the book today while i was there at around the time bob should have been releasing.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Beyond the fact that there are other reasons that i like ncst here , i would be very concerned about laying dd with unc at the moment.
The qb situation is uncertain but either way i am happy as an ncst backer .. yates will have to be rusty , either one who starts will have to be looking over their shoulder .. some of the guys will want sexton and some of the guys will want yates .. etc etc etc ... love the qb situation that unc is facing this week as a wolfpack backer.
but unc is averaging just 324 yards and 15.7 first downs per game. So they have been fortunate to score what they have in their games so far this year. Just not a fan of laying dd with a team that struggles that much to move the ball unless they can physically dominate the opponent and that seems an unlikely task against a tom obrien led team.
Really just feel that the ncst team gets healthier and better with each passing week and they are also gaining confidence along the way.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I have concerns for oregon state on the road against a monster of a home team in arizona.
The offense will have to rise to the occasion here , which they have not done of late if they are to upset zona.
339 yards 20 first downs at home to cal .. basically 3 of their scores were nonoffensive .. kick return for td , kick return inside the 5 yardline , int return for td. Defense did play a great game however , limiting cal to just 11 first downs
18 first downs and 3 first half points against the bruins before ucla quit inthe second half and oregon state benefitted from short fields for 3 td drives where they started at the ucla 33 yard line or better.
22 fist downs and 370 yards or so of offense against a bad arizona st team. unfortunate performance as i lost a bet on them that game.
beavs are just 2-3 on the road and their road wins came to teams that combine for 4 total wins so far this year and one of those was because they played one another......
meanwhile arizona has been a juggernaut at home.
