2008 cfb - time to post my week 13 card so far

ELIMINATED FRESNO STATE TODAY

i try not to edit my locked in plays post once games have kicked off and that is the case now , since the GT game was played tonight.

That only leaves iowa as a possible play not already locked in. So card currently looks like this ....

locked in

Georgia Tech -3 -120
Illinois -2
ncstate +12
Michigan state + 15 ( huh? )
clemson -2.5
Arizona -3
Wake forest -1
louisville +7

strong leans

ole miss +6 eliminated 11-19
iowa -6
the ville +7 added 11-19

talk me off leans

nevada +6 eliminated 11-19
wyoming +2.5 eliminated 11-19
fresno st -2.5 eliminated 11-20



so any play on iowa will not appear in post #1 , if or when that happens.
 
vegaskyle said:
Beyond the fact that there are other reasons that i like ncst here , i would be very concerned about laying dd with unc at the moment.

The qb situation is uncertain but either way i am happy as an ncst backer .. yates will have to be rusty , either one who starts will have to be looking over their shoulder .. some of the guys will want sexton and some of the guys will want yates .. etc etc etc ... love the qb situation that unc is facing this week as a wolfpack backer.

but unc is averaging just 324 yards and 15.7 first downs per game. So they have been fortunate to score what they have in their games so far this year. Just not a fan of laying dd with a team that struggles that much to move the ball unless they can physically dominate the opponent and that seems an unlikely task against a tom obrien led team.

Really just feel that the ncst team gets healthier and better with each passing week and they are also gaining confidence along the way.
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Yates shouldnt be to rusty because he has been practicing 2+ weeks . I think they were being patient and waiting for Sexton to have that bad game before they reinserted him. Yates played a series vs GT on 11-8 as well. He should be able to slide in ..

UNC has done some slight of hand work at times but it still rolled GT and BC recently at home . NCST went from a team as a passing thought catching TDs at home and DDs on the road to a team who could beat some of these teams. Now I think they have lost that under the radar value . I just think the gap in defenses is huge ...NCST away vs NC at home.

NCST didnt beat WF as much as WF beat themselves. Wilson has done well not throwing picks but 180 yds passing if that wont be enough here IMO. I justthink UNC at home is to tough . NCST wont hang around and Wilson has to make a mistake sometime and vs this opportunictic defense its seems like a great chance to happen here . Just dont think Wolfpack score enough ...

I understand the Wolfpack side of it as I rode them past few games but think UNC is alot better then the credit they get especially with the injuries sustained . I just the NCST has benefited greatly from getting no respect and timing which gets thrown out the window here . They had the vall 12 minutes longer at Maryland and still lost . Which they had a TD called back because of a hold then missed a short FG . Terps had but 2 pts and NCSt seems to always when they have a decent drive take it to the scoreboard and get points. The rest of the other drives never amount to amount to much its so odd a team can have just 3 -4 solid drives a game and still manage 21 pts from that .

One thing is I have been on UNC every home game and I recall you faded the Heels at least vs UConn and ND so maybe we just have two different mentalties when we look at these 2 teams . UNC though one of my favorite plays this week but waiting for a bit more color on the QB situatuin....:cheers:
 
vegaskyle said:
Have a lot in common this week for a change. gl .. think bob hit bgsu so might want to check that line. not positive though just noticed it move in the book today while i was there at around the time bob should have been releasing.
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Think he did . I have some -3 -120 but made this game -6 so no real issue at -4 ..Thanks .:cheers:
 
Scary is UNC is 8 pts away from being 10-0 . They lose Yates and blow a 17-3 late 3rd Q lead vs Vatech. They lose by 3 in OT @ UVA when they settle for a FG to go up 10-3 and allow UVA to hang around and pull it out. Maryland kicks a FG inside 2 minutes to win by 2 and 2 of those games were away. Which UNC also missed an easy FG which would have forced Maryland to score a TD on the last drive.....
 
sportnut,

I try not to get fired up when I read your reasoning for things sometimes...I know you are a knowledgable dude, but some of your comments completely puzzle me...Yates is going to be rusty no matter how you spin it, how they didn't put him in last week was beyond me...the only think I can think of is that Davis didn't want to have a QB controversy...well, let's say he's now got a QB dilemna...N.C. State won the game last week, period...both teams actually played very well in my opinion, it was an enjoyable game to watch...I know you don't watch the games most of the time, but if Owen Spencer catches one of the five balls he dropped, NCSU wins by at least one more TD...NCSU's defense played very well as Wake approached field goal range, as I could give two shits how a defense plays from an opponents twenty to midfield...NCSU has benefited from good recruiting and great coaching from Tom O'Brien, combined with the fact they are now fully healthy (not luck, timing or lack of respect)...this is no fluke...I don't see you mentioning how much the loss of Tate played a role in last week's loss to Maryland and how it could again affect the UNC offense again this week...what about UNC's run defense getting shredded the past two weeks by opposing offenses?...didn't hear you mention that either...you can go ahead and be my guest and lay double digits with UNC here and they could end up covering this game...I can assure you, though, you will get a top notch effort from O'Brien, Wilson, Nate Irving and crew on Saturday and I'd much rather be on the side of taking the points rather than laying them here...curiously, why would you ever lay (-125) juice on a play?...I'm sure you have your reasoning but I'd like to hear why...GL this week...
 
SportsNut said:
Yates shouldnt be to rusty because he has been practicing 2+ weeks . I think they were being patient and waiting for Sexton to have that bad game before they reinserted him. Yates played a series vs GT on 11-8 as well. He should be able to slide in ..

UNC has done some slight of hand work at times but it still rolled GT and BC recently at home . NCST went from a team as a passing thought catching TDs at home and DDs on the road to a team who could beat some of these teams. Now I think they have lost that under the radar value . I just think the gap in defenses is huge ...NCST away vs NC at home.

NCST didnt beat WF as much as WF beat themselves. Wilson has done well not throwing picks but 180 yds passing if that wont be enough here IMO. I justthink UNC at home is to tough . NCST wont hang around and Wilson has to make a mistake sometime and vs this opportunictic defense its seems like a great chance to happen here . Just dont think Wolfpack score enough ...

I understand the Wolfpack side of it as I rode them past few games but think UNC is alot better then the credit they get especially with the injuries sustained . I just the NCST has benefited greatly from getting no respect and timing which gets thrown out the window here . They had the vall 12 minutes longer at Maryland and still lost . Which they had a TD called back because of a hold then missed a short FG . Terps had but 2 pts and NCSt seems to always when they have a decent drive take it to the scoreboard and get points. The rest of the other drives never amount to amount to much its so odd a team can have just 3 -4 solid drives a game and still manage 21 pts from that .

One thing is I have been on UNC every home game and I recall you faded the Heels at least vs UConn and ND so maybe we just have two different mentalties when we look at these 2 teams . UNC though one of my favorite plays this week but waiting for a bit more color on the QB situatuin....:cheers:
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nope i didnt have uconn against them .. but i did have notre dame which cashed and really , notre dame was the better team that day. Uconn also put up huge numbers on unc but kept getting their punts blocked. I also don't think i would characterize them as "rolling" GT .. they were outfirstdowned 20-13 and outgained by over a hundred yards but benefitted from a couple of short fields in that one. They played well against boston college for sure. Their offensive production is not that good to be laying that many is all i am saying. i agree that ncst loses under the radar status somewhat , but that would be the case anyway as this is a pretty big rivalry for the players. I think it is fair to expect a mistake somewhere in this game from wilson as butch davis really knows how to scheme to confuse QB's but not sure he makes anymore mistakes than the yates/sexton combo however they are utilized. Also , while youa re right they cashed in with td on some of the long drives last week , they also had a lot of key drops , most notably from owen spencer that cost them some first downs and atleast one score.

I just think that ncst has actually been playing better than unc the last few weeks and unc has averaged just 15.5 first downs a game over their last 4 .. just doesn't instill any confidence in me that they erupt and dominate offensively so i think as long as ncst avoids the big turnovers and special teams plays that they compete throughout. Also , i think teams realize that without tate , all you really need to stop on the unc offense is nicks and he is no longer flying under the radar.

We'll see ... unc seems to find ways to score even when the offense is struggling and if they do that again they can certainly cover.... as a handicapper i tend focus on the actual offensive production and discount the fluke plays ( int , punt blocks , punt returns , fumbles , gadget plays ) to find my lines. But if unc makes those types of plays again then they do probably cover.

health on unc but wish you luck on most of your other stuff.
 
pags11 said:
sportnut,

I try not to get fired up when I read your reasoning for things sometimes...I know you are a knowledgable dude, but some of your comments completely puzzle me...Yates is going to be rusty no matter how you spin it, how they didn't put him in last week was beyond me...the only think I can think of is that Davis didn't want to have a QB controversy...well, let's say he's now got a QB dilemna...N.C. State won the game last week, period...both teams actually played very well in my opinion, it was an enjoyable game to watch...I know you don't watch the games most of the time, but if Owen Spencer catches one of the five balls he dropped, NCSU wins by at least one more TD...NCSU's defense played very well as Wake approached field goal range, as I could give two shits how a defense plays from an opponents twenty to midfield...NCSU has benefited from good recruiting and great coaching from Tom O'Brien, combined with the fact they are now fully healthy (not luck, timing or lack of respect)...this is no fluke...I don't see you mentioning how much the loss of Tate played a role in last week's loss to Maryland and how it could again affect the UNC offense again this week...what about UNC's run defense getting shredded the past two weeks by opposing offenses?...didn't hear you mention that either...you can go ahead and be my guest and lay double digits with UNC here and they could end up covering this game...I can assure you, though, you will get a top notch effort from O'Brien, Wilson, Nate Irving and crew on Saturday and I'd much rather be on the side of taking the points rather than laying them here...curiously, why would you ever lay (-125) juice on a play?...I'm sure you have your reasoning but I'd like to hear why...GL this week...
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i guess some of my last post was already contained in here ... guess i should read every new post prior to responding. good points pags.
 
thanks kyle...I'm pretty sure I'll need some anger management after the season but I wouldn't have it any other way...
 
On friday nights i like to look at how i have performed against the number. It is often slightly different by kickoff but this gives me a godo idea heading into saturday action. i will be using current bookmaker numbers to examine. i have had a good run of beating hte final line this year ... lets check it out for this week though.....

Georgia Tech -3 -120 ..........closed -3 -110 winner ........... -0.50 ( since i bought )
Illinois -2 ...........................current -2.5 ...................... +0.50
ncstate +12 ....................... current +11 ...................... + 1.00
Michigan state + 15 ( huh? ) ..current +15.5 .................... -0.50
clemson -2.5 ....................... current -3 ........................ + 0.50
Arizona -3 ............................ current -2.5 :( ................. -0.50
Wake forest -1 ...................... current -2.5 .................... + 1.50
louisville +7 ........................... current +7 ...................... 0.00

So not one of my better weeks of beating the numbers. drbob liked oregon st and pennst so what looked like good numbers a few days ago have shifted ... the arizona one i find extra painful as -3 vs -2.5 is a big difference. All in all , i did net out a 0.25 differential per game to the good this week though... and i would honestly expect illinois to close 3 where it is most other places ( bm has a -2.5 ).

Coincidentally , two of my friends here in town sent me a link to youtube clip on this particular subject. I know i have stressed time and again the importance of beating the closing number but i think the clip explains it better than i have. The two guys who sent this to me have two of the most analytical minds that i know ... and are sharp , winning gamblers. much respect to them. Anyway , here is the clip .. enjoy ....


file://<EMBED src=http://www.youtube.com/v/gH-aCkLkpOI&hl=en&fs=1 width=425 height=344 type=application/x-shockwave-flash allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></EMBED>
 
also .. willnot be playing iowa .. it was eliminated today. gl tomorrow everyone and thanks for helping make this one of the best threads around this week,......


not as good as rj thread but what can you do .........
 
LOL--I just saw that video at another site and watched it for the first time a few minutes ago.

Someone made the comment in the original thread where the video was posted that you can start at the 5:45 mark and get the point about getting the best number without having to hear the lecture about the standard deviation, if all the math talk bores you.

GL this week Kyle.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Looks like gambling has taken a few pounds off Charle Weis...
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:36_11_6:

Rumor has it that is the guy in the Dr. Bob E:60 feature that Counselor posted in the DR. Bob in-game yesterday--supposedly he is the guy going to make his bets when the Sportsbook moves the line based on Bob's picks.

I have heard Vanzack make the same points he makes in the last 3 minutes of the video--that you are graded as a player by the books by how consistently/how close you get the best line.

Being that I took the Buffalo ML at +170 around 5:00 and it was at +200 before gametime-- that should mean to Bookmaker that I am worth at least 10 calls and 2 account reps dedicated to solicit me tomorrow to deposit more money with them.


EDIT--NO, I just rewatched the Dr. Bob video. Justin makes an appearance in a different place in the Bob video--he is not the guy at the Sportsbook. I can't believe I haven't seen Justin's video or Dr. Bob's video until the last couple of days, good stuff.
 
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Interesting video Kyle, but I wonder what the % of times the favorite closes higher. Usually I bet the favorite early to beat the closing line & wait on the dogs, rather than try to beat the line with a dog....I'd like to hear your thoughts & GL tomorrow
 
cinderfella said:
Interesting video Kyle, but I wonder what the % of times the favorite closes higher. Usually I bet the favorite early to beat the closing line & wait on the dogs, rather than try to beat the line with a dog....I'd like to hear your thoughts & GL tomorrow
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unfortunately , i am ill equipped to answer that question. I have certainly noticed that traditional "chase" games tend to follow that trend .. where the favorite becomes a larger favorite and the total moves higher. Chasers love favorites and overs. So that is why i continually say that if you like a monday night favorite or a sunday night favorite ( or the over in either ) that it is best to bet early as you will benefit from a better line more times than not. Obviously , as a general rule , the opposite holds true and you should usually wait until closer to kickoff to make your dog and under plays in those spots. But i apply that mostly to the primetime chase games.

As far as most games are concerned , i would not think that it is generally the case because i feel that the market by its nature will lend itself to generating a more "fair" line. In other words , the closing number on average should be far closer to whatever the "true" line should be as compared to the opening number. That should be the case regardless of which side is favored in the game , if you follow what i am trying to say. The market by its nature should account for inefficiencies in the lines themselves throughout the week ( or day depending on sport ). Therefore , the line should be more "fair" the closer it gets to game time.

like i said , i lack the statistical knowledge to be completely confident in what i am saying. I personally have not tracked the percent of games where the line moves in favor of the favorite or in favor of the dog. Nor do i have access to that information , though i would certainly be interested in knowing.

This is the reason you see me lock in most of my plays early in the week. i feel i have a system/model of handicapping that allows me to see inefficiencies in the lines and by betting early in the week , i beat the market correction to those inefficiencies.
 
pags11 said:
sportnut,

I try not to get fired up when I read your reasoning for things sometimes...I know you are a knowledgable dude, but some of your comments completely puzzle me...Yates is going to be rusty no matter how you spin it, how they didn't put him in last week was beyond me...the only think I can think of is that Davis didn't want to have a QB controversy...well, let's say he's now got a QB dilemna...N.C. State won the game last week, period...both teams actually played very well in my opinion, it was an enjoyable game to watch...I know you don't watch the games most of the time, but if Owen Spencer catches one of the five balls he dropped, NCSU wins by at least one more TD...NCSU's defense played very well as Wake approached field goal range, as I could give two shits how a defense plays from an opponents twenty to midfield...NCSU has benefited from good recruiting and great coaching from Tom O'Brien, combined with the fact they are now fully healthy (not luck, timing or lack of respect)...this is no fluke...I don't see you mentioning how much the loss of Tate played a role in last week's loss to Maryland and how it could again affect the UNC offense again this week...what about UNC's run defense getting shredded the past two weeks by opposing offenses?...didn't hear you mention that either...you can go ahead and be my guest and lay double digits with UNC here and they could end up covering this game...I can assure you, though, you will get a top notch effort from O'Brien, Wilson, Nate Irving and crew on Saturday and I'd much rather be on the side of taking the points rather than laying them here...curiously, why would you ever lay (-125) juice on a play?...I'm sure you have your reasoning but I'd like to hear why...GL this week...
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I think that is exactly it Pags they didnt want a QB controversy. Naturally he will show some rust because its game action but the fact remains he has been practicing for weeks . So its not like he has just a few days under his belt and is going to feel out of sorts . At least not IMO .

As far as maryland and tate the kid hasnt played in weeks . Why mention him now ? Its rather simple IMO teams just dont win on the road laying chalk in 2008 because the talent gaps are to narrow . So whats more important that NC lost @ Maryland by 3 like State or that one team was +11.5 and the -3 ? To me how teams perform against the line is the most important factor . All I know is I cashed both home pups last week because the teams favored didnt deserve to be. Beating WF is unimpressive the offense cant move the ball . How can you not beat a team at home who cant move the ball consistently? I play the lines rather simple IMO. It doesnt take much to realize certain things about teams . If NCST couldnt catch any of those 5 passes at the home why expect them to on the road ??

I'll be the first to admit I miss easy bets because I may look to twist info sometimes rather then stick with the hard facts . However thats what makes me successful longterm never thinking like anyone else .

I dont understand why you would get emotional as I never said anything about NCST being a bad beat . Just that I thought UNC would continue to excel at home. I really dont care much what happens in these games . I took an ass raping on the Bowling Green game. It happens . BG didnt close the door and I could list a thousands reason why but who cares . All I care about is the final score . UNC can play dogshit for the entire game and if they win 10++ thats fine with me .

Rather simple why I would lay -125 because I want to lay -10 . I am sure there are a thousands reasons why it doesnt make sense but all I know is when I buy points I seem to do it at the right times . Its about instinct . Might be wrong here but deciding to lay -140 on the Xavier ML rather then lay -2 made a world of difference .

As for NC s run defense take out the 1st Q which they were terrible they allowed something like 4.5 yds a carry thanks mostly to a bunch of 10 yd runs(last drive like 8 runs for 22 yds and the main one was the 10 yd run late after Turner scrambled for the 1st giving Maryland momentum) . The week before they played GTs option offense so that explains those rushing yards not to mention alot came in garbage time . Lets see 54 c 326 yds and 1 85 yd run down 21-0 . Already down to 241 yds on 53 carries if we take out one play . Think the 4th Q was 6c for 120 yds so I'll take 48c for essentialy yds vs GTs option offense . Plus alot of teams say there defenses are messed up the week after playing an option offense. So maybe thats why the 1st Q they were off cause from the 2nd TD on the terps offense did little for 3 quarters. They didnt run the ball effectively on the last drive and the big play was Turner's scramble on 4th down .

WF offense has now scored 12 , 0 , 10 and their high in ACC road games 17 vs NCSTate. Hard to lose when your opponent hasnt even scored 14 pts on the road yet and is missing its best asset in Swank. Still it was a struggle . Thats how I look at it . The Pack also beat Duke who has fallen to pieces after a solid start . Other then that was is impressive besides the fact they competed vs BC , FSU and @ Maryland ??

I always say I dont know as much as you guys and dont know what else you want . No, I dont watch the games I have action cause because you develop incorrect opinions biased by your action . Thats my belief . Alot of what UNC has done may seem flukish and maybe it is but when it happens week after week then I just cant discount it . Personally i have this game at -13 so I am playing the game solely based on the fact I feel the home team is overvalued .....

GL

 
Also I wouldnt attribute NCState's front four being healthy for the reason why WF and Duke cant run the ball vs them . Its because those offenses basically suck . They cant do much if anything so that isnt much of test . Anyway BOL tmrw
 
SportsNut said:
I think that is exactly it Pags they didnt want a QB controversy. Naturally he will show some rust because its game action but the fact remains he has been practicing for weeks . So its not like he has just a few days under his belt and is going to feel out of sorts . At least not IMO .

As far as maryland and tate the kid hasnt played in weeks . Why mention him now ? Its rather simple IMO teams just dont win on the road laying chalk in 2008 because the talent gaps are to narrow . So whats more important that NC lost @ Maryland by 3 like State or that one team was +11.5 and the -3 ? To me how teams perform against the line is the most important factor . All I know is I cashed both home pups last week because the teams favored didnt deserve to be. Beating WF is unimpressive the offense cant move the ball . How can you not beat a team at home who cant move the ball consistently? I play the lines rather simple IMO. It doesnt take much to realize certain things about teams . If NCST couldnt catch any of those 5 passes at the home why expect them to on the road ??

I'll be the first to admit I miss easy bets because I may look to twist info sometimes rather then stick with the hard facts . However thats what makes me successful longterm never thinking like anyone else .

I dont understand why you would get emotional as I never said anything about NCST being a bad beat . Just that I thought UNC would continue to excel at home. I really dont care much what happens in these games . I took an ass raping on the Bowling Green game. It happens . BG didnt close the door and I could list a thousands reason why but who cares . All I care about is the final score . UNC can play dogshit for the entire game and if they win 10++ thats fine with me .

Rather simple why I would lay -125 because I want to lay -10 . I am sure there are a thousands reasons why it doesnt make sense but all I know is when I buy points I seem to do it at the right times . Its about instinct . Might be wrong here but deciding to lay -140 on the Xavier ML rather then lay -2 made a world of difference .

As for NC s run defense take out the 1st Q which they were terrible they allowed something like 4.5 yds a carry thanks mostly to a bunch of 10 yd runs(last drive like 8 runs for 22 yds and the main one was the 10 yd run late after Turner scrambled for the 1st giving Maryland momentum) . The week before they played GTs option offense so that explains those rushing yards not to mention alot came in garbage time . Lets see 54 c 326 yds and 1 85 yd run down 21-0 . Already down to 241 yds on 53 carries if we take out one play . Think the 4th Q was 6c for 120 yds so I'll take 48c for essentialy yds vs GTs option offense . Plus alot of teams say there defenses are messed up the week after playing an option offense. So maybe thats why the 1st Q they were off cause from the 2nd TD on the terps offense did little for 3 quarters. They didnt run the ball effectively on the last drive and the big play was Turner's scramble on 4th down .

WF offense has now scored 12 , 0 , 10 and their high in ACC road games 17 vs NCSTate. Hard to lose when your opponent hasnt even scored 14 pts on the road yet and is missing its best asset in Swank. Still it was a struggle . Thats how I look at it . The Pack also beat Duke who has fallen to pieces after a solid start . Other then that was is impressive besides the fact they competed vs BC , FSU and @ Maryland ??

I always say I dont know as much as you guys and dont know what else you want . No, I dont watch the games I have action cause because you develop incorrect opinions biased by your action . Thats my belief . Alot of what UNC has done may seem flukish and maybe it is but when it happens week after week then I just cant discount it . Personally i have this game at -13 so I am playing the game solely based on the fact I feel the home team is overvalued .....

GL
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There are different ways to cap successfully , nut. For me and pags , we get a benefit from watching the games and you get a benefit from not watching them. One is no better than the other as long as we are working hard , finding an edge etc etc ... what works for one successful capper won't necessarily be the way for another guy. You don't have to apologize for doing it your way , bro.

good information in that post. I think my reasons outweigh your reasons for that particular game but that doesn't mean much. I am wrong 42-44 % of the time or whatever my lifetime numbers are. This isn't an exact science as much as we would hope.

Good health on the unc play , but alteast i know that if i lose ... one of my fellow cappers is somewhere cashing a ticket.
 
pags11 said:
thanks for the video kyle...getting ready to go cook up some hamburger helper...
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i had a cheeseburger and baked potato.

will get my breakfast croissanwich on my way to the book tomorrow.... well maybe ... still battling that cold so not sure how hungry i will be.
 
Good luck tomorow buddy...

sweep them sides again

:shake:

Thx for the words in that "other" forum ;)
 
B.A.R. said:
Good luck tomorow buddy...

sweep them sides again

:shake:

Thx for the words in that "other" forum ;)
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you're a class act, BAR.

just hope to go 4-3 and have a profitable day. Actually won a midweek game ................ so i dont know what to expect on saturday since that never happens.
 
vegaskyle said:
i had a cheeseburger and baked potato.

will get my breakfast croissanwich on my way to the book tomorrow.... well maybe ... still battling that cold so not sure how hungry i will be.
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Dude fuck that, ask BAR I will make you a omelette.

GL tommorow
 
sportnut

when I say fired up, I'm not saying the kind of fired up like I'm going to go punch a wall...I mean more frustration of seeing someone as intelligent as yourself making statements where you are not giving credit where credit is due...much like debates we have had earlier this year, I feel when you cap or look back on your capping you don't give enough credit to the other team, especially the teams that beat you...you use the word "if" a lot and combine that by taking away games, quarters, series...I just don't believe you can do that and be logical, unless maybe you are dividing a teams home and road performance...but to say, "well let's take the first quarter of this game out", and "well you can't count the game against Georgia Tech because they were facing the triple option", that type of "should have" and "would have" handicapping gets you in trouble...maybe because I'm an ex-baseball guy and we never use the word "if" it's easier for me not to use "if" in my college football handicapping...it can be a dangerous proposition as pride can often get in the way of learning from your mistakes...I will be the first to admit when I made a shitty play or when logic I used in a play was incorrect, part of why I feel I'm a good capper...you will always have points to back up your reasoning which I respect but your comment regarding twisting things is something I agree with 100%...paying -125 and -140 for wagers ultimately is going to be a losing proposition as I'm sure you are very well aware of, but I do get your point about instinct...just have to hit a damn higher percentage of those types of wagers to justify buying up that much...personally, I haven't paid more than -110 for a wager the entire year, but that's just my style as I believe if you don't like a game at the current line you probably shouldn't be playing the game...I don't have time to debate any longer as I have to go to bed to get ready for the games tomorrow...all I'm saying is in the future, I'd like to see more "man that was a bad play", vs. three paragraphs of why your team should have covered...it'll make you a better capper in the long run bro...BOL to you tomorrow...

kyle,

I respectfully disagree that reading box scores/ following a game on gamecast vs. watching as many games as possible are equal ways to handicap games...I believe doing all three is ultimately the best way to do things...most people don't have the time, or if they do they don't care to dedicate the time to watching a bunch of games, but seeing Russell Wilson six weeks ago puts you on the cutting edge, vs. reading a box score or seeing a squigly line on game cast...we will agree to disagree...GL brother...and make sure you eat some breakfast even if you aren't that hungry, we've got a big day ahead of us...
 
GL the week Kyle.. Good start for you..

Pretty sure if an alien landed on this planet, having never watched a football game in his life, but read this thread weekly, he would be successful at gambling...:shake:
 
Thanks for your responce I will be watching that NC game I cant seem to pull the trigger on that one. I got burned with Yates before. I will tail you on a few of your other games ville & Ill. BOL
 
Wow. Not a good week , finishing 3-5 and deserving every loss i got. Might be one of the worst capped weeks of football for the year for me and the wake forest and michigan state games were atrocities. Have to look in the mirror sometimes and recognize what you see even if it's ugly and my capping was very ugly this week. of course , both strong leans tht i did not play would have cashed easily. i should have recaps early this week as i tend to focus more on those during the losing weeks. So next weeks thread should be up and running in the morning. Hey , i had a nice little run for awhile but i had an off week. Wow was wake forest a bad bet.

Georgia Tech -3 -120 winner
Illinois -2 loser
ncstate +12 winner
Michigan state + 15 loser
clemson -2.5 winner
Arizona -3 loser
Wake forest -1 loser
louisville +7 loser

<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
updated through week 13
overall 76-64-2 54.3%
Sides 52-43-2 54.7%
moneyline dogs 1-1
totals 23-20 53.5 %
 
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