2008 cfb -- time to post my week 10 card so far

thanks for the response kyle....good stuff, and i see your thought process for sure. i agree that we are just weighing variables differently. i've missed my last 7 big plays in cfb in a row, so you should like your chances hahaha.

i rambled a little bit there (sorry about no paragraph breaks john haha), and it did seem that i was creating this big home field advantage from the crowd, etc...but that's not really what i meant to be saying there. i meant more as in the players' minds of just focusing and getting up for the game all day long. i realize that the crowd won't be full force, but much of this conference plays completely different home/away for a number of different reasons.

with dmoney on utah, you on tcu, and horses liking both...i'm starting to think i could be in for another downward spiral weekend haha.

if i lose this wager it'll be clear why...

:cheers:
 
Alright want to show why i think tcu dominates.

tcu offense avg 22.4 first downs per game , unlv defense gives up avg of 21 per game

unlv offense avg 20.5 first downs per game , tcu gives up avg of 11.8 ( not a typo )

Again , i find this significant because of what it means beyond the obvious empirical value. Unlv will not be able to run for first downs , they will have to come through the air ..... it will make for a very tired defense. As in the referenced nevada game that was close through the first three quarters ... even if unlv has any offensive success it is going to be through big plays and the defense tires either way.

unlv averages 242 yards passing per game at 7.5 yds per play , tcu defense gives up an average of 187.7 at 6.1 yards per play.

tcu averages 188.2 yards passing per game at 7.0 yards per play , unlv defense gives up an average of 221.1 yards passing per game at 9.1 yards per play.

Also find this significant as unlv has trailed a lot more than tcu , making these numbers skewed quite a bit and the 9.1 ypp against unlv is one of the worst in the nation ( only uab and north texas is worse ). Also when you are holding opponents to 32 yards per game on the ground , they are going to throw a lot....tcu ypp against of 6.1 is pretty good.

unlv is averaging 137.25 yards per game rushing at 4.13 yards per carry , tcu defense is allowing an average of 31.22 yards per game at 1.17 yards per play.

tcu is averaging 220.11 yards per game at 4.42 yards per carry , unlv defense is allowing 228.63 yards per game at 5.27 yards per carry.

read the bolded above again gang.

I don't believe either team has a significant special teams advantage with the kickers although i tend to give the advantage in the return games to the team with more speed and tcu has one of the better return games in the entire nation right now.

Do we want to even discuss the coaching mismatch ?? patterson vs sanford. wow.





There are a few things about the above that i find very important and that is ... TCU is not just a little bit dominant on paper ... they are as overtly dominant on paper for a matchup that we could want as a handicapper imo. And what makes it more impressive is the level of competition faced so far. TCU has played much better teams to this point of the season compared to unlv .. making the numbers even worse.

So it boils down to whether tcu shows up ... traditionally they have against even worse unlv teams.

2007 tcu wins 34-10 at the froggies
2006 tcu wins 25-10 at the rebels
2005 tcu wins 51-3 at the froggies

Reminds me of the new mexico domination by tcu. much like new mexico , unlv is going to have to prove to me they can compete with tcu on the scoreboard.

Of TCU's 8 wins this year only the csu game was by less than a two td spread. Granted you can draw some spot comparisons between the csu game and thsi one but i think the weather and qb situation more than make up for it. If the rebels come out inspired and tcu is flat i could see tcu failing to cover and winning by 6 or 7 .... but if both come flat , both come inspired or tcu comes inspired and unlv is flat ..... well then i see a monumental destruction.
 
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Dmoney416 said:
Looking good - got to figure worst case they can at least win against either Louisville/Syracuse/Pitt.

Thanks on Cincy as well - still harboring what are probably unrealistic BE championship thoughts. They would have to win @WV next week though.
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bad spot for cincy there. dont like their chances ... really just need that cuse win hehe. atleast with the 13th game the final game at hawaii will still matter as they need 7 for bowl eligibility.
 
broadwayjoe said:
thanks for the response kyle....good stuff, and i see your thought process for sure. i agree that we are just weighing variables differently. i've missed my last 7 big plays in cfb in a row, so you should like your chances hahaha.

i rambled a little bit there (sorry about no paragraph breaks john haha), and it did seem that i was creating this big home field advantage from the crowd, etc...but that's not really what i meant to be saying there. i meant more as in the players' minds of just focusing and getting up for the game all day long. i realize that the crowd won't be full force, but much of this conference plays completely different home/away for a number of different reasons.

with dmoney on utah, you on tcu, and horses liking both...i'm starting to think i could be in for another downward spiral weekend haha.

if i lose this wager it'll be clear why...

:cheers:
Click to expand...




I like situational spots as much as the next guy and that is obviously where we see the most difference. You must strongly believe they dont show up at all. i think that is possible but not as likely as you think. i like what i have read coming from this team prior to and after the wyoming game .... team seems like it is on a mission.

anyway ,,, it was spot that was a main difference in opinion for us with utep at buffalo and you were dead on right in that game and i was wrong. utep went out and outgained texas the following week.
 
mind blowing stats kyle. i completely agree that tcu's team defense is just unbelievable. i do think you might be seeing the SOS a little differently than i do. byu and oklahoma pad the hell out of that, but besides that, none of the other teams impress me. i'd put unlv's offense above any of the other offenses. new mexico, stonecold, stanford, smu, sdsu, csu, and wyoming????

i think unlv's schedule is actually a little stronger top to bottom because although they haven't played oklahoma, they've played a bunch of pretty decent teams, and decent offenses with the only real stinkers being utah state and csu.

and they matched up well to byu (i was on tcu that game) in terms of team speed and just the fact that they were at home with the emotion, etc and byu was overhyped and overrated at the time while perception on tcu was a little off.

i think the perception of unlv is off for the most part (not saying in your case as you seem to have a great grasp of them) because of their record and losing 4 straight. like that they've found a way to compete in most of their losses despite having these poor stats stacked up against them. young team that has been getting better even though their record doesn't show it.
 
broadwayjoe said:
mind blowing stats kyle. i completely agree that tcu's team defense is just unbelievable. i do think you might be seeing the SOS a little differently than i do. byu and oklahoma pad the hell out of that, but besides that, none of the other teams impress me. i'd put unlv's offense above any of the other offenses. new mexico, stonecold, stanford, smu, sdsu, csu, and wyoming????

i think unlv's schedule is actually a little stronger top to bottom because although they haven't played oklahoma, they've played a bunch of pretty decent teams, and decent offenses with the only real stinkers being utah state and csu.

and they matched up well to byu (i was on tcu that game) in terms of team speed and just the fact that they were at home with the emotion, etc and byu was overhyped and overrated at the time while perception on tcu was a little off.

i think the perception of unlv is off for the most part (not saying in your case as you seem to have a great grasp of them) because of their record and losing 4 straight. like that they've found a way to compete in most of their losses despite having these poor stats stacked up against them. young team that has been getting better even though their record doesn't show it.
Click to expand...


To be fair , unlv has been a much better product on the field than i thought they would be. I know jpicks was a lot higher on clayton than i was and it turned out he was more right about him than me. wolfe has displayed just sick hands ... like he has stolen stick -um from lester hayes. The defense is still a major work in progress though.

Just agree to disagree on the schedule ..utah state , arizona st , iowa st and air force are not good teams at all.... well i guess afa is pretty good. tough road games at utah and at byu though ... looking it over again i still give tcu a sos edge but you are right ... it really isn't all that significantly different .. might have exxagerated out of memory there but just looked at both again and they are similar. results vs common opponents arent though. Agree with you that unlv poses the most problems offensively for tcu other than byu or ou.
 
sent Brian Kelly an email tonight after that compassionate display by Ginyard to the little kid...told him he recruits class players and runs a great program...will let you know if he responds...
 
pags11 said:
sent Brian Kelly an email tonight after that compassionate display by Ginyard to the little kid...told him he recruits class players and runs a great program...will let you know if he responds...
Click to expand...


Yeah that was a good moment.

Amazing what a difference a week makes. Bearcats had a million and a half drops last week and this week they 5 or 6 simply amazing catches. Even the incompletion on that play when the guy was out of bounds was a nice catch. The kid was signing autographs and got to spend time with erin andrews...... i want to get run over by a receiver in the stands and start crying ......
 
Just realized that I haven't popped in this week to congratulate you on your UVa win last weekend. I watched the game in utter shock. I have never, in Al Groh's tenure, seen a UVa team played inspired on the road in Atlanta. They took their lumps early while GT pretty much ran at will outside (like I thought they would), but Pruitt schemed through it and they completely shut them down for the last 3 quarters. I really don't remember a UVa road game (besides Miami last year) where I wasn't screaming at the TV for 4 straight quarters calling for Al Groh to be killed on the spot. Offensive playcalling was still too conservative, but with Verica, I think that is a good thing. Huge win for the program and an affirmation that Bob Pruitt really does have it. Any guy that can stop a quick moving offense with a slow-footed defense get a :tiphat: from me.

As far as this weekend goes, I'm really confused at the line. How is Miami going to score? Ras I Dowling is playing (only guy I've ever seen shut down M. Crabtree in legit one-on-one coverage) and Verica was actually throwing the ball like he meant it last game. What can I say? This team might be better than I said they were at the beginning of the season. What a difference a D coordinator and Cedric Peerman make, I guess. When they play as well as they have the last couple weeks, it makes you wonder what the hell was wrong in Storrs just a month and a half back.

I'm going to play the Hoos, but I'm psyching myself out of a big unit size. Am I getting sucked in here or is this a fair line based on the rest of the season?
 
vegaskyle said:
just hope they dont reward usc for playing in a weak conference. if tcu were to run the table and finish with 1 loss at oklahoma ... tell me why usc deserves to go to bcs title game over tcu. TCU will have played in a tougher conference , a tougher schedule and had a higher quality loss.

pac10 is so bad.
Click to expand...

I know we all say this, but lets just say USC does make the national championship game. Are you going to be against them? I know for damn sure I'm not.
 
Every friday i like to look at how well i worked at getting lines during the week. We spend so much time handicapping that we sometimes forget it is half the battle. Some of my numbers this week are considerably bad compared to opening numbers but i judge my value more based on how i end up vs closing numbers since that is how we track ATS. These numbers are likely to change a little between now and gametime but it lets me get a basic idea of how i did. If you throw darts for picks and consistently get the best of the line you should atleast break even.

TAMU -2..................currently -3.5 ......... differential +1.5
Oregon st -12 ..........currently 15.5 ..........differential +3.5
Clemson +4.5 ...........currently +5.5 .........differential -1.0
West by god Virginia -3 ...currently -3.5 ....differential +0.5
wake forest -6.5 -120 .....currently -7.5 ...differntial +1.0 ( minus 0.10 juicy juice though )
iowa +2..................... ..currently +2.5 .....differential -0.5
TCU -13.5 ...................currently -14 .......differential +0.5
Washingtonst/stanford UNDER 54 ,..currently 53.5 ..differential +0.50
W Va /uconn over 44 .....currently 44.5 ......differential +0.5
Temple/navy over 44 ......currently 45 ........differential +1.0
california/oregon under 64 1/2 ..currently 58.5 ..differential +6.0
louisville -13 .................currently 13.5 .......differential +0.5


Feel really good about the cal/oregon game even though i saw someone else on this site got that game even two points better than i did. cant complain aobut have two fgs the best of a total though. also feel good about being on the right side of the 7 with wake even if i laid some juicy juice to do it. oregon state is another one where they opened the line -9 and i didnt get to it until a fg later but the bet is looking like a pretty damn good value vs the line even at that number.

The only significant move against me was boston college and it moved from 4.5 to 5.5 so dont feel like i lose a key number there.

pretty happy all in all
 
J Galt said:
Just realized that I haven't popped in this week to congratulate you on your UVa win last weekend. I watched the game in utter shock. I have never, in Al Groh's tenure, seen a UVa team played inspired on the road in Atlanta. They took their lumps early while GT pretty much ran at will outside (like I thought they would), but Pruitt schemed through it and they completely shut them down for the last 3 quarters. I really don't remember a UVa road game (besides Miami last year) where I wasn't screaming at the TV for 4 straight quarters calling for Al Groh to be killed on the spot. Offensive playcalling was still too conservative, but with Verica, I think that is a good thing. Huge win for the program and an affirmation that Bob Pruitt really does have it. Any guy that can stop a quick moving offense with a slow-footed defense get a :tiphat: from me.

As far as this weekend goes, I'm really confused at the line. How is Miami going to score? Ras I Dowling is playing (only guy I've ever seen shut down M. Crabtree in legit one-on-one coverage) and Verica was actually throwing the ball like he meant it last game. What can I say? This team might be better than I said they were at the beginning of the season. What a difference a D coordinator and Cedric Peerman make, I guess. When they play as well as they have the last couple weeks, it makes you wonder what the hell was wrong in Storrs just a month and a half back.

I'm going to play the Hoos, but I'm psyching myself out of a big unit size. Am I getting sucked in here or is this a fair line based on the rest of the season?
Click to expand...



I don't know virginia football as well as you so take this with a grain of salt. I think virgiia has vastly improved as the season has progressed and i think you should give them a pass for the uconn game .. that was right after lalich was basically kicked off the team so they were going with verica in first road game , with no peerman , off the field distractions and a revenge minded quality husky squad.

My concern is if you thought GT had a speed advantage over virginia last week then you must be concerned with speed that miamifl brings to the table. I actually lean to miami fl in this one but i think a lot of people dont realize just how well the cavs play at home ( i know you do ).


I also think this is a game where the revenge factor has true meaning. that was disgraceful what happened in the orange bowl last year. Now , it needs to be determined if that was a really bad game by miami or whether virginia poses some matchup problems ...

For all the concerns with groh gameday playcalling and coaching , i think you have a coaching matchup that is favorable for virginia in this game. shannon is similar in that miami recruits well but lacks weekly preparation and gameday coaching.

I would think this is a low scoring game but at 42 i have no desire to play the under.

At some point we have to decide that a team is who they show they are to be. I can look at all my preseason capping on south florida , tennessee or wyoming but at this point in the year i have to believe what i am seeing and all of thsoe teams are just bad. Same goes with virginia ... for all my preseason capping that called for a down year , they are proving every single week that they are not a bad football team with peerman in there.

So while i lean miami florida in the game , i am in no hurry to jump in front of the momentum virginia has going right now when they are at home and i dont want to expect that big of a difference year over year from box score 2007 to gameday 2008.

staying away but wish your boys luck
 
J Galt said:
I know we all say this, but lets just say USC does make the national championship game. Are you going to be against them? I know for damn sure I'm not.
Click to expand...


Yes i would assuming i got a decent line. They beat a green virginia team on the road and struggled at oregon state and at virginia. If they play in the orange bowl against florida that would be a very hard win. Also think some of the big12 teams present problems for them though depending on which team i might be on usc.

might change this opinion by years end... as usc always is better at the end of the year as they lose so many guys to the nfl it is hard to have the experience and cohesiveness the first half of the year. by the end of the season they are a 5 star recruit team instead of just a bumch of five star recruits on the same team.

I just don't think that they merit a chance given their schedule and conference.
 
excellent discussion above on Vir/Miami.. I have had Virginia on my lean list all week but just haven't been able to pull the trigger.. Appeciate the info above very good and I agree with all points... I see lots of FGs in this game..
 
vegaskyle said:
Yeah that was a good moment.

Amazing what a difference a week makes. Bearcats had a million and a half drops last week and this week they 5 or 6 simply amazing catches. Even the incompletion on that play when the guy was out of bounds was a nice catch. The kid was signing autographs and got to spend time with erin andrews...... i want to get run over by a receiver in the stands and start crying ......
Click to expand...


no doubt!...I was totally jealous of the love Erin was showing him...hahaha...
 
nropp11 said:
i like the navy over. still.
Click to expand...


Yes a lot of history points to the over here at this number. Also have a situation where the qb should not be rusty for temple this week. I think temple gets to twenty points or more a good percentage of the time making this a good bet imo.

gl if you bet it as well.
 
tee*dub said:
excellent discussion above on Vir/Miami.. I have had Virginia on my lean list all week but just haven't been able to pull the trigger.. Appeciate the info above very good and I agree with all points... I see lots of FGs in this game..
Click to expand...


me too ... staying away as i said ... i consider virginia a "feel - good " story of sorts so i will kind of be cheering for them to win now that i eliminated miami fl as a possible play.

keep up your great season Tee.
 
pags11 said:
no doubt!...I was totally jealous of the love Erin was showing him...hahaha...
Click to expand...


Hope you had hamburger helper this week cause i went with New York Steak .......

Hopefully i don't accidentally throw a big mac this week.


sorry for the inside jokes, everyone.
 
bro, just finished up with hamburger helper and a salad...mix in a couple of pop tarts and I'm golden...my pregame meal of sorts I guess...watching my last tape of the week now USM vs. Memphis...this Brown kid is pretty damn talented for USM...hope you used one of your many comps to get you a free steak tonight...let's do it tomorrow...
 
Really struggling with the wisconsin game... think it will be a gameday decision for me and if played it will be unposted......

i find it pointless to tell people what i bet after the fact as it can be aggravating to hear that someone has recommended a bunch of plays and then bet another game that they did not.... so i apologize in advance that i wont come to a clear decision that i can advocate for you on this game in this thread.

Suffice it to say that it will be wisconsin or nothing for me. Again , a game huntdog sparked an interest for me in and i just have one or two lingering questions heading into tomorrow.
 
Some late line moves is making me feel better about tomorrows plays ...


TAMU -2..................currently -3.5 ......... differential +1.5
Oregon st -12 ..........currently 15.5 ..........differential +3.5
Clemson +4.5 ...........currently +3.5 .........differential +1.0
West by god Virginia -3 ...currently -3.5 ....differential +0.5
wake forest -6.5 -120 .....currently -8...differntial +1.5 ( minus 0.10 juicy juice though )
iowa +2..................... ..currently +2 .....differential 0.0
TCU -13.5 ...................currently -14.5 .......differential +1.0
Washingtonst/stanford UNDER 54 ,..currently 52..differential +2.0
W Va /uconn over 44 .....currently 44.5 ......differential +0.5
Temple/navy over 44 ......currently 44.5 ........differential +0.50
california/oregon under 64 1/2 ..currently 57.5 ..differential +7.0 :)
louisville -13 .................currently 13 .......differential 0.0

Had a few move since earlier in the night but if games went off right now i would have the closing line beat or tied in every single bet. win or lose tomorrow that would mean a lot to me as a handicapper to do that over 12 bets. of course a lot of these will moe on gameday but the stanford and cal totals are only going one direction with the weather system hitting northern california tomorrow.
 
New to CTG.. what up?

vegaskyle said:
Not wrong at all. Four and maybe five legitimate top 15 teams. We know missouri , okie st , texas and oklahoma are worthy. The question now is texas tech ? me no think so but some would argue otherwise.


The problem is if i made my lines on a neutral field right now , i think i make florida a favorite over every team in the big12 , even if small.

my top 4 by power rating

florida
texas
oklahoma
usc


Obviously with usc scheduling it would be an absolute joke if they made the title game but they are still solid.

the qestion becomes if missouri beats texas in the big12 title game .... how does missouri go with 2 losses ?? so there is a way that the big12 does not represent. I don't think you can punish texas for playing in the big122 title game by giving oklahoma a chance at bcs title when they dont even go to their conference title game ... so then we are looking at the SEC winner ( 1 loss ) , usc and pennstate as the probables.

I think there is a good chance that penn state loses at iowa so that would clear up and i would take a two loss big12 team over usc this year but there is no way that will happen either.

gonna be fun.

just hope they dont reward usc for playing in a weak conference. if tcu were to run the table and finish with 1 loss at oklahoma ... tell me why usc deserves to go to bcs title game over tcu. TCU will have played in a tougher conference , a tougher schedule and had a higher quality loss.

pac10 is so bad.
Click to expand...

USC is totally over-rated once again. I won't be surprised if they lose one more game. Sanchez is THE MOST OVERRATED QB in the NCAA, save maybe for Grothe..

Any solid analysis..

Cheers!
 
kyle- No totals for me, but I am on all your sides except Wake and TCU.
Obviously, you got better lines than I did.
Wisconsin 5 1/2 the last I saw.
Are they still alive in your thinking ?
FWIF- I will be on them , just seeing if I can get 6. May buy it.
GL
 
Having trouble wrapping my ahnds around the UVA game. I lean the U and think I may still play it. How much do you guys think revenge will play a factor for Miami. Do they even have pride? THis is a team I watched live in Blacksburg last year, right behind the bench. They talked shit for 2 quarters. As soon as they got behind and I mean right when they did, they threw in the towel and gave up. They seem like the team to do well as long as nothing goes wrong.

Am I wrong in thinking Miami is the better offense, defense, and teams? The edge I see UVA having is homefield and they are smoking hot right now.

I haven't seen a lot of Veraca, but he doesn't seem like a capable QB to me. Galt would obviously know better than me.
 
TAMU -2 WINNER
Oregon st -12 LOSER
Clemson +4.5 WINNER
West by god Virginia -3 WINNER
wake forest -6.5 -120 LOSER
iowa +2 LOSER
TCU -13.5 WINNER
Washingtonst/stanford UNDER 54 loser
W Va /uconn over 44 WINNER
Temple/navy over 44 winner
california/oregon under 64 1/2 Winner
louisville -13 loser

7-5 for the week. 4-4 on sides , 3-1 on totals

updated through week 10
overall 63-50-2 55.7%
Sides 40-35-2 53.3%
moneyline dogs 1-1
totals 22-14 61.1 %
 
bjorks said:
I had a solid 0-10 day yesterday. Good times...
Click to expand...



AT some point we all have those 8-10 game losing streaks. Part of normal fluctuation when we are dealing with 53-59 % success expectancy. Sorry your streak came yesterday.

your sun devils killed me. played with heart..... couldn't see that coming.
 
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