2008 cfb -- time to post my week 10 card so far

sportsnut,

I completely agree, part of what makes Kyle's thread so great, and Kyle for that matter...we don't always see eye to eye on all games, but we share our thoughts...it's the best way to learn and get better as a capper...



yup. Can't even tell you how much i have learned from you over the past few weeks alone , pags.
 
Added a teaser tonight of houston -1.5 with wake -1.5 , even money

not tracking the teaser bets in the thread but recommend this play
 
After doing some line adjustments and recapping a few games ... i eliminated all but tcu , the ville and the huntdog special wisconsin from my leans lists.

house cleaning.

looks like i will have one or two totals and a smaller card this week. not sure how when i liked the card so much at openers. guess i really just like some specific plays a lot.
 
Wound up 3-1 but not nearly as good as I should have been . Weekdays are rough when I have to play hoops nearly every night get stuck rushing and miss halftimes . Bets increments always messed up . Had Ohio U ML , Over 48 Buffalo , Marshall and Under . Should have pounded the UND yesterday at 63 and didnt add to it when it dropped later today . Of course it was made interesting at the end . Sucked I had to much on the Ohio U ML as I liked Marshall more anyway . Then I parlayed Ohio U and over but was going to do the same for Marshall / Und yesterday and didnt . Even had Marshall 1st Q , 1st H , ML , TT und 34.5 Houston and Houston 2nd H which lost . Wound up +2 maybe +2.5 units .....annoying when you go 3-1 and 5-1 on "prop" type plays plus an 0-1 parlay.

Why I am typing this I ahve no idea guess its a vent..

Houston now amazingly 0-5 as CHALK at half and 0-5 SU at Half ...
 
Wound up 3-1 but not nearly as good as I should have been . Weekdays are rough when I have to play hoops nearly every night get stuck rushing and miss halftimes . Bets increments always messed up . Had Ohio U ML , Over 48 Buffalo , Marshall and Under . Should have pounded the UND yesterday at 63 and didnt add to it when it dropped later today . Of course it was made interesting at the end . Sucked I had to much on the Ohio U ML as I liked Marshall more anyway . Then I parlayed Ohio U and over but was going to do the same for Marshall / Und yesterday and didnt . Even had Marshall 1st Q , 1st H , ML , TT und 34.5 Houston and Houston 2nd H which lost . Wound up +2 maybe +2.5 units .....annoying when you go 3-1 and 5-1 on "prop" type plays plus an 0-1 parlay.

Why I am typing this I ahve no idea guess its a vent..

Houston now amazingly 0-5 as CHALK at half and 0-5 SU at Half ...



can't complain when you make money. i used houston in a small teaser bet based more on a system play than any capping but i would gladly trade my night for yours. nice work.
 
can't complain when you make money. i used houston in a small teaser bet based more on a system play than any capping but i would gladly trade my night for yours. nice work.

Problem is cant only make a tad when your basically making 10 plays and hitting 70% of them . That means 60% is BE and 50% is negative . Which is a problem I run into to often because I am all over the damn place . NBA had to start and even fuck around with NHL despite not knowing more then uhm 10 players at best in the league . My ass is still bleeding from the raping I took in the Boston Celtic game ..losing the heavier plays in every sport today ...that is the part that sucks..I dont mean to whine about winning but just the big picture ...:cheers:
 
You'd be hard pressed to find a better thread with discussion in here every week anywhere on the net imo.
 
You'd be hard pressed to find a better thread with discussion in here every week anywhere on the net imo.


No doubt. I finally just made it through it. Great stuff. Getting intrigued on Louisville now. Great stuff VK and O-state about that game.
 
thanks guys .. the thread has gotten good participation lately.

the more we talk about and share info the more money we can make.
 
thanks Kyle...if Erin Andrews told me to do anything (well just about anything), I'm pretty sure I would...
 
some +3 on iowa is starting to show up.

i dont care if illinois wins by 21 ... the line move is moronic. wish i had waited but i just assumed iowa would close the favorite.
 
some +3 on iowa is starting to show up.

i dont care if illinois wins by 21 ... the line move is moronic. wish i had waited but i just assumed iowa would close the favorite.

What if they win by 35?

Could be someone setting up a +3 I suppose. I agree with the move though.

If Iowa wins this week I'll be a Hawkeye believer.
 
Show me a quality opponent so we can gauge the strength of these teams. NONE

The above quote was in regard to the quality of OOC opponents played by Big XII teams. Excuse me but didn't OU beat TCU by something like 35-7 ?
 
locked in
tamu -2
clemson +4.5
wake -6.5 -120
oregon st -12
iowa +2
wvu -3

a little chalky.... not many dogs i like this week really. so could be a otugh week for me.

Oregon State line has gotten away from me, and I'm not sure about Wake.
Allow me to place the other 4 games on my card.
And I will not talk you out of Wisconsin or Louisville. I Like both so count on someone else to do that for you.

GL this week.
 
Kyle, you already know I think you should add Louisville and I think you like it too. If they don't cover I won't feel too bad about it much much better team on IMO a short line and they should be motivated. But Cuse has burnt me this year.

Wisconsin.....I rate it to be a close game but I think you have to be confident they win straight up. Could be a field goal game but that's not a high percentage, I would need a touchdown here. Not safe to rely on them winning.

TCU....Maybe a short line, but, Colorado State was and that was a similar spot. Both before maybe biggest games of year for TCU. Don't know if weather will be a factor in this one but TCU has shown lookahead factor wouldn't be surprised if they cover or don't cover.....your banking on emotion it's unpredictable.

FWIW I lean TAMU, Clemson, and WVU. Not sure how Colorado only puts 14 on Kansas State, but I can't rely on TAMU. Clemson I think they have some more in them this season unervalued right now but if they can't move it on that BC defense, just think I would need a touchdown here for a closer look, hate ACC games. West Virginia should be on my card at least a TMO. I think Husky lb'ers are slow and WVU has far more big play ability and will stop UConn more, UConn offense stulls on long drives like Navy does some times.
 
Odd Kyle, we don't have any of the same games at all this week.

Would like to hear your thoughts on Oregon this week. I know traditionally speaking, Belloti hasn't done well against Tedford and Cal statisically has a good run defense and I used that when capping the Zona-Cal game and they were eaten alive. Oregon offense is running full speed right now and I think they run wild again this week, maybe not as wild as last week, but wild enough to win on the road.

Also, UK
 
Odd Kyle, we don't have any of the same games at all this week.

Would like to hear your thoughts on Oregon this week. I know traditionally speaking, Belloti hasn't done well against Tedford and Cal statisically has a good run defense and I used that when capping the Zona-Cal game and they were eaten alive. Oregon offense is running full speed right now and I think they run wild again this week, maybe not as wild as last week, but wild enough to win on the road.

Also, UK is
 
Odd Kyle, we don't have any of the same games at all this week.

Would like to hear your thoughts on Oregon this week. I know traditionally speaking, Belloti hasn't done well against Tedford (lost 3 of last 4) and Cal statisically has a good run defense and I used that when capping the Zona-Cal game and they were eaten alive. Oregon offense is running full speed right now and I think they run wild again this week, maybe not as wild as last week, but wild enough to win on the road.
 
No doubt. I finally just made it through it. Great stuff. Getting intrigued on Louisville now. Great stuff VK and O-state about that game.

Me too, Big Al.

At some point I know I chuckled to myself at all the attention being lavished on the Louisvulle-Syracuse game.
I guess that's why we're all known as Sports Degenerates. :smiley_acbe:
 
You have your reasons for not liking them ... you told me that we disagree more about iowa than any team in fbs. Tough test for iowa this week but i think they have it in them.

I really don't have that many stats to fight you with - its basically I'm just not impressed when I watch them.

I don't see the development in Stanzi yet that others seem to be seeing.
 
Oregon State line has gotten away from me, and I'm not sure about Wake.
Allow me to place the other 4 games on my card.
And I will not talk you out of Wisconsin or Louisville. I Like both so count on someone else to do that for you.

GL this week.


thanks bull.

The wake game I am relyiong heavily on the difference in play for wake home and away, Bull. If that does not come through for me , i am going to be sweating that out all the way through the game. If it does pan out i should win comfortably.

I wouldn't lay the current price on oregon state .... 14 or less is my recommendation.

Louisville is going to be a play.

hope we casht he four you bet on !!

Wondering if you have a favorite play this week for fbs ??
 
I really don't have that many stats to fight you with - its basically I'm just not impressed when I watch them.

I don't see the development in Stanzi yet that others seem to be seeing.


Friggin stanzi killed me when i had iowa ml / emich ml ( +22 pt dog to bgsu ) ..... kept turning ball over deep in mich st territory.

I actually don't like him as much as other guys who liek iowa.

The "eye test" is sometimes more valid than box score analysis anyway dmoney ...sometimes you ahve to believe your eyes. Only thing i would say about that is that i have watched them and been impressed. So we just disagree aobut what we are seeing. unless you are betting illinois .. cheer for me this week....
 
Kyle, you already know I think you should add Louisville and I think you like it too. If they don't cover I won't feel too bad about it much much better team on IMO a short line and they should be motivated. But Cuse has burnt me this year.

Wisconsin.....I rate it to be a close game but I think you have to be confident they win straight up. Could be a field goal game but that's not a high percentage, I would need a touchdown here. Not safe to rely on them winning.

TCU....Maybe a short line, but, Colorado State was and that was a similar spot. Both before maybe biggest games of year for TCU. Don't know if weather will be a factor in this one but TCU has shown lookahead factor wouldn't be surprised if they cover or don't cover.....your banking on emotion it's unpredictable.

FWIW I lean TAMU, Clemson, and WVU. Not sure how Colorado only puts 14 on Kansas State, but I can't rely on TAMU. Clemson I think they have some more in them this season unervalued right now but if they can't move it on that BC defense, just think I would need a touchdown here for a closer look, hate ACC games. West Virginia should be on my card at least a TMO. I think Husky lb'ers are slow and WVU has far more big play ability and will stop UConn more, UConn offense stulls on long drives like Navy does some times.



ville makes the card.

i do think wisconsin has a decent chance of winning straight up. Need some input from the michigan guys around here as to how good the michigan state defense is at stopping the run. 3 of wiscy 4 losses were to teams that stuffed the run and forced wiscy to throw and were able to pound them with the running game. Sparty is going to pound ringer at them so i need to be confident that wisconsin can run effectively before i bet. Still doing some in depth box score/playbyplay analysis to try and determine this but wouldn't mind getting some input on that mich st rush defense.

tcu -- i already bet tcu ... will post the play shortly. I see some differences between the csu and unlv games. TCU defense was as dominant as ever against the rams but the cold weather and the fact that jackson was playing qb and not dalton was what made that game tough on tcu. going to be nice weather here in vegas , and dalton will be playing. Read some qoutes in either an article or on a frog blog/messageboard that indicate that this team has a strong desire to finish with the number one defense in America. So i think they show up defensively every single game emotionally. tcu can pound the rock and unlv can't stop the run and has proven against running teams air force and nevada that they can't stop it at home either. hard for me to imagine the scenario where tcu is up just a score and trying to get a first down to kneel on the ball here. Also note the level of competition for unlv ...pretty sad defenses and i think they are in for a shock in this one. i love the coachign mismatch of patterson vs sanford as well. And from an emotional standpoint that was a pretty devastating , emotional loss for the rebels last week at byu.

wvu - is probably my least favorite bet at this point. i have not been good in big east games the last two years and this game ( small road favorite ) is the exact type of situation that i have struggled in. Throw in that i never beat uconn when i bet against them and i get a little worried. on paper , wvu should win pretty easily but i may have uconn a tad underrated right now.

TAMU can't be trusted and that is why you don't trust them. Was talkign on the phone with sirwinzalot the other day and he said that colorado might as well have been playing in a coffin last saturday as they looked completely dead. Something not right with that team right now , and it starts with the qb's. TAMU is trending upward as they get a grasp of the new systems and colorado is trending downward as they shuffle qb's. Worth a bet i think but i can understand why anyone would be leery of laying points with TAMU defense.
 
Odd Kyle, we don't have any of the same games at all this week.

Would like to hear your thoughts on Oregon this week. I know traditionally speaking, Belloti hasn't done well against Tedford (lost 3 of last 4) and Cal statisically has a good run defense and I used that when capping the Zona-Cal game and they were eaten alive. Oregon offense is running full speed right now and I think they run wild again this week, maybe not as wild as last week, but wild enough to win on the road.

This is a very interesting game to cap

Well, i think oregon is the better football team getting points ..... BUT there are a few concerns and reasons why i am not betting it. The first is California rush defense which has been pretty good all year long. Cal at home is a different football team in my opinion and oregon is on second straight road trip and it was a hard one flying all the way down to arizona , back to oregon and then down to cal. However , you also have the scenrio where CAL may be looking ahead to mathucp with usc next week... so it might be a wash situationally. There is a decent chance of some rain on the west coast this week and i am not sure how that favors one team or the other but i would think it favors oregon more as they run more and cal passes more .... but you never can count on weather too much and sometimes the california rains are soft. Cal has the ability to score non-offensive td at home which also concerns me.

I like the under in the game and will have a play on it but i am staying away from the side. Like oregon but CAL is one of those teams i don't want to be a part of fading when they are at home.
 
Me too, Big Al.

At some point I know I chuckled to myself at all the attention being lavished on the Louisvulle-Syracuse game.
I guess that's why we're all known as Sports Degenerates. :smiley_acbe:


money degenerates .....
 
great thread as always. thanks and good luck.


Thanks bud.


Heading to state line of california/nevada today and am not sure whether i am staying overnight or not yet or turning around and coming back after business is over this afternoon. So may or may not be around for discussion this evening. Keep the discussion going guys.

Cheering for my cincy over 6.5 wins future bet tonight against usf but have no opinion on the game as i think the line is about right.


good luck to any of you who are involved in that one
 
nice get on tcu earlier ...just in time i guess since bob just hit it.

back early from road trip .. feeling kind of sick. A couple additions ot the card ..

added

#317 W Va /uconn over 44

#355 Temple/navy over 44

#354 california/oregon under 64 1/2


#313 louisville -13
 
Boo, never thought we would see it.

What books are showing the +3 for Iowa? I'd be VERY surprised to see Pinny offer 3 at all. And that's basically the only book I'm worried about.

+3 at bodog, sportsbook, betus, etc holds no weight with me.

As an Iowa resident/past student, I'm really happy these guys are flying under the radar. 5-2 ats and still nobody is looking at them. And what's really nice is Shonn Greene is on absolutely nobody's heisman radar. They see Ringer's name every week instead. Love it.

The only thing that would worry me is the look ahead to Penn State at home next week. But a 5-3 team, looking for a bowl game, should never be looking ahead when you're one win away from being eligible.

Great thread Kyle, and everybody else. :cheers:
 
tcu -- i already bet tcu ... will post the play shortly. I see some differences between the csu and unlv games. TCU defense was as dominant as ever against the rams but the cold weather and the fact that jackson was playing qb and not dalton was what made that game tough on tcu. going to be nice weather here in vegas , and dalton will be playing. Read some qoutes in either an article or on a frog blog/messageboard that indicate that this team has a strong desire to finish with the number one defense in America. So i think they show up defensively every single game emotionally. tcu can pound the rock and unlv can't stop the run and has proven against running teams air force and nevada that they can't stop it at home either. hard for me to imagine the scenario where tcu is up just a score and trying to get a first down to kneel on the ball here. Also note the level of competition for unlv ...pretty sad defenses and i think they are in for a shock in this one. i love the coachign mismatch of patterson vs sanford as well. And from an emotional standpoint that was a pretty devastating , emotional loss for the rebels last week at byu.

you know i respect the hell out of you, but i disagree with pretty much everything you said here. i do agree that this is a lot different than csu. first, unlv's offense is significantly better than csu's imo....and despite their loss to them (which the score doesn't tell the whole story there either), i think they're a better team than csu. they're more balanced, they have playmakers, they're efficient, and they don't turn it over--which this tcu team thriveson. dalton had an outstanding game against byu, but i still don't think he's what makes this offense go. is he better than jackson? yes, but imo marginally. sounds weird to say, but i don't think the line would be any different--maybe a half point with jackson at qb, and i think rightfully so. i realize why you bring up weather because when tcu was on the road against csu the weather was probably a factor. but looking at this matchup, the weather being nice helps unlv here too...if weather was bad unlv wouldn't have much of a shot at all because they wouldn't be able to throw it. i absolutely agree this is one of the best defenses and the best run defense there is. however, this is probably the most balanced offense they've faced outside of oklahoma. will unlv be able to run? no, but i think it's important for the passing game that the threat is there, and they've already came out and said they were definitely gameplanning to run the ball. my obvious concern is unlv's run defense, so i agree with you there, but i always say that home emotion helps that. i still don't doubt tcu will be successful, but if the game's remotely close, the home emotion should help make some stops they normally wouldn't get. i know you mention that they didn't stop it vs air force and vs nevada, but i think there will be even more emotion here because tcu being a highly ranked team in a night game and a win here could propel them into a bowl game. also, they were still competitive in those two games (nevada score a bit deceiving as the game was close until mid 4th quarter) despite giving up gaudy rushing numbers. they were playing awful defenses, and step up significantly in opposing talent defensively, yes, but my point is they proved they can still be competitive and it's something they're used to. this is still a huge concern though, don't wanna downplay it too much. as far as the emotional thing, i disagree again there...i think they're in a much much better spot than tcu is. they have been heartbroken in games they've been competitive in for basically four games in a row now, and still have come out and played hard and competitively against teams that were more talented than them...and now they're going to be flat in a night home game against a ranked opponent? the flat team is definitely going to the team that has to play 2 games in 6 days....the first to a 3-5 team that has terrible defense and the second is the best team in the conference and one of the best in the country. i think there's virtually no way tcu will be able to give 100% focus and energy here. and to o-state's point...yes, we can predict emotion. very well i think. especially when we have virtually the same type of spot (although as we agreed a much different opponent) and how flat they played before. now with national eyes on them and this game coming up a lot more, it's going to be to an even greater extent imo. i never like laying double digits on the road in conference, but especially when i'm confident that the focus won't be there for the team i'm laying with, and reasonably confident the home team getting over two tds won't turn the ball over to give the visiting team easy scores. and, both teams are definitely going to try to establish the run, which means a shortened game. so you can have a pretty decisive victory of 27-16, and have the cover never really even be in doubt.
 
i should also say that i think you make some good points there of why they win the game...they're the real deal for sure. when i play a big play, i almost always play the moneyline too, but +450 is an absolute joke...i'd need +1000 to even think about it.

with ya on iowa and like some of your others, and as always this has been a great thread. just really hope you're wrong on this one; i could use a break haha.
 
What books are showing the +3 for Iowa? I'd be VERY surprised to see Pinny offer 3 at all. And that's basically the only book I'm worried about.

+3 at bodog, sportsbook, betus, etc holds no weight with me.

As an Iowa resident/past student, I'm really happy these guys are flying under the radar. 5-2 ats and still nobody is looking at them. And what's really nice is Shonn Greene is on absolutely nobody's heisman radar. They see Ringer's name every week instead. Love it.

The only thing that would worry me is the look ahead to Penn State at home next week. But a 5-3 team, looking for a bowl game, should never be looking ahead when you're one win away from being eligible.

Great thread Kyle, and everybody else. :cheers:



Thanks for the local look johnboy.

The penn state look ahead is a concern but i am hoping that it is mitigated by the fact that iowa is coming off of the bye. Should be ready to play football.
 
i should also say that i think you make some good points there of why they win the game...they're the real deal for sure. when i play a big play, i almost always play the moneyline too, but +450 is an absolute joke...i'd need +1000 to even think about it.

with ya on iowa and like some of your others, and as always this has been a great thread. just really hope you're wrong on this one; i could use a break haha.

Hope we hit iowa.

Well there is no arguing that a look ahead has to be atleast a concern for tcu backers. no doubt about that. Disagree with a few things in your above posts but also agree with a lot ... i think maybe we are weighing the variables for each side differently while looking at the same kind of things. I will give my honest opinion for each statement in your post and we can break some of this game down.....

i do agree that this is a lot different than csu. first, unlv's offense is significantly better than csu's imo....and despite their loss to them (which the score doesn't tell the whole story there either), i think they're a better team than csu.

For the most part , i agree with what you say here ... i consider unlv and csu pretty equal as teams go but i definitely give unlv the nod offensively over the rams ... and i think that their passing attack matches up better against tcu than the rams offensive system. However , the defensive side of the ball is a different story.

they have playmakers, they're efficient, and they don't turn it over--which this tcu team thriveson. dalton had an outstanding game against byu, but i still don't think he's what makes this offense go. is he better than jackson? yes, but imo marginally

Unlv does have playmakers on the outside and clayton has been throwing a decent ball most of the year and when flair or wolfe get their hands on a ball they usually find a way to make the catch. great hands. Summers is not a bad back either but he is obviously going to ahve zero success. Would not be all that surprised if unlv was held to negative yards net rushing in this game. Not kidding when i say that. So they will be relying heavily on that passing game. Have to disagree veehemntly regarding Dalton. He is significantly superior to jackson and one of the most improved qb's year over year this season. This teams passing offense takes a serious nosedive when jackson plays. The playcalling is also very different. Patterson did not show nearly the trust in jackson that he does in Dalton. With jackson at qb at csu and sdsu they threw the ball five less attempts per game. It didn't help tcu in that game that jackson is miserable at making proper decisions in the read option, which was the staple of their offense that day when patterson did not want to lose the game by an offensive mistake. I think this difference is VERY significant so we disagree there.

i realize why you bring up weather because when tcu was on the road against csu the weather was probably a factor. but looking at this matchup, the weather being nice helps unlv here too...if weather was bad unlv wouldn't have much of a shot at all because they wouldn't be able to throw it.

Jackson couldn't handle a snap and the cold mitigates team speed advantage somewhat on really cold days , especially cold and wet days like in colorado that particular day. Completely agree with you that unlv needs decent weather to have any chance of moving the ball in this game. I always prefer bad weather when i have a big dog though and always prefer good weather when i am laying a huge number. But your point is well taken ...

i absolutely agree this is one of the best defenses and the best run defense there is. however, this is probably the most balanced offense they've faced outside of oklahoma. will unlv be able to run? no, but i think it's important for the passing game that the threat is there, and they've already came out and said they were definitely gameplanning to run the ball.

Heh ... they can say that all they want ... the rebels know they are going to be throwing a lot in this game. They could very well be one of the more balanced offenses but i just don't think my rebels can block tc up front and that is going to lead to negative plays and most likely turnovers. Unlv ball security has been good but we all know that can't last forever , especially when you are throwing from behind the chains for an entire game. I also think we are not giving enough credit to the tcu pass defense. With the run defense getting all the hype , we try to find holes in the pass defense but it has really been ok save oklahoma. I do think the secondary is the most vulnerable part of the defense and i won't be surprised if unlv completes a big play or two ... but the rebels will not be able to drive downt he field completing passes in my estimation.

my obvious concern is unlv's run defense, so i agree with you there, but i always say that home emotion helps that. i still don't doubt tcu will be successful, but if the game's remotely close, the home emotion should help make some stops they normally wouldn't get. i know you mention that they didn't stop it vs air force and vs nevada, but i think there will be even more emotion here because tcu being a highly ranked team in a night game and a win here could propel them into a bowl game. also, they were still competitive in those two games (nevada score a bit deceiving as the game was close until mid 4th quarter) despite giving up gaudy rushing numbers. they were playing awful defenses, and step up significantly in opposing talent defensively, yes, but my point is they proved they can still be competitive and it's something they're used to. this is still a huge concern though, don't wanna downplay it too much. as far as the emotional thing, i disagree again there...i think they're in a much much better spot than tcu is. they have been heartbroken in games they've been competitive in for basically four games in a row now, and still have come out and played hard and competitively against teams that were more talented than them...and now they're going to be flat in a night home game against a ranked opponent? the flat team is definitely going to the team that has to play 2 games in 6 days....the first to a 3-5 team that has terrible defense and the second is the best team in the conference and one of the best in the country. i think there's virtually no way tcu will be able to give 100% focus and energy here. and to o-state's point...yes, we can predict emotion. very well i think. especially when we have virtually the same type of spot (although as we agreed a much different opponent) and how flat they played before. now with national eyes on them and this game coming up a lot more, it's going to be to an even greater extent imo. i never like laying double digits on the road in conference, but especially when i'm confident that the focus won't be there for the team i'm laying with, and reasonably confident the home team getting over two tds won't turn the ball over to give the visiting team easy scores. and, both teams are definitely going to try to establish the run, which means a shortened game. so you can have a pretty decisive victory of 27-16, and have the cover never really even be in doubt

First , as a local i got a little chuckle about the emotion of a night game at home for unlv ..... i realize you are in bigten country but a football game at sam boyd is not a huge emotion filled stadium. Vegas is a basketball school and a basketball town. Football fans jump off the bandwagon here quickly and off of 4 consecutive losses their aren't many people left on there. The night home game doesn't mean much here. Unlv could very well come out flat for this game. But i certainly am not counting on that ... i dont think i need them to come out flat ..... if they do then tcu wins by 31. I am basing the bet under the assumption that unlv brings their "A' game. I also think , since you have mentioned it a couple times , that you might be playing with some fools gold in regards to unlv ball security. Different animal when you play tcu and have bad third down situation after bad third down situation. Not sure why you would predict unlv to win the turnover battle. Sure unlv has only turned it over 6 times ... but they have only forced 6 as well. TCU has given it up just 9 times while forcing 23..... and the level of competition difference is significant in my opinion.

In regards to the nevada game ... both offenses matched up well vs one another with nevadas great rushing attack vs unlv swiss cheese rush defense and with unlv pass attack vs nevada poor pass defense. One thing i have noticed is just how poorly unlv has defended the read option in particular .. or any option for that matter. see afa and nevada. My point is that i can see tcu having similar success vs unlv defense as the wolfpack had but don't see nearly the same thing when i look at rebels offense vs tcu compared to nevada. I find this significant because it means with shorter drives that the rebel rush defense gets tired all the faster.

How does unlv shorten the game with the run again ??? no way. impossible. Again , i wouldn't be surprised if rebels finished with negative rush yards for the game. Seems to me if you like unlv you better be confident in them producing stops and it better be because of motivation or a matchup that you see and NOT as a result of HFA ... because as a local i can tell you that it is not a big advantage at all.//// Sam boyd aint the shoe.....

I will try to put up a post concerning the matchups from a statistical perspective. Obviously when one team is a two td fav on the road they are going to look better .... but these numbers are just sick.

Agree to disagree ,....... no avatar bet from me though :36_11_6:
 
One win to go for the cats.....


:smiley_acbe:


one more and 5 games to do it in !!!

Updating my two futures ....

cincy over 6.5 wins are now 6-2 with 5 games to play

purdue under 6.5 wins is already in assuming they play all the games. they are 2-6 with 4 games to play.


Preseason threads really helped with those two bets this year.

grats on what looks like a good year for your bearcats as well dmoney.
 
:smiley_acbe:


one more and 5 games to do it in !!!

Updating my two futures ....

cincy over 6.5 wins are now 6-2 with 5 games to play

purdue under 6.5 wins is already in assuming they play all the games. they are 2-6 with 4 games to play.


Preseason threads really helped with those two bets this year.

grats on what looks like a good year for your bearcats as well dmoney.

Looking good - got to figure worst case they can at least win against either Louisville/Syracuse/Pitt.

Thanks on Cincy as well - still harboring what are probably unrealistic BE championship thoughts. They would have to win @WV next week though.
 
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