i should also say that i think you make some good points there of why they win the game...they're the real deal for sure. when i play a big play, i almost always play the moneyline too, but +450 is an absolute joke...i'd need +1000 to even think about it.
with ya on iowa and like some of your others, and as always this has been a great thread. just really hope you're wrong on this one; i could use a break haha.
Hope we hit iowa.
Well there is no arguing that a look ahead has to be atleast a concern for tcu backers. no doubt about that. Disagree with a few things in your above posts but also agree with a lot ... i think maybe we are weighing the variables for each side differently while looking at the same kind of things. I will give my honest opinion for each statement in your post and we can break some of this game down.....
i do agree that this is a lot different than csu. first, unlv's offense is significantly better than csu's imo....and despite their loss to them (which the score doesn't tell the whole story there either), i think they're a better team than csu.
For the most part , i agree with what you say here ... i consider unlv and csu pretty equal as teams go but i definitely give unlv the nod offensively over the rams ... and i think that their passing attack matches up better against tcu than the rams offensive system. However , the defensive side of the ball is a different story.
they have playmakers, they're efficient, and they don't turn it over--which this tcu team thriveson. dalton had an outstanding game against byu, but i still don't think he's what makes this offense go. is he better than jackson? yes, but imo marginally
Unlv does have playmakers on the outside and clayton has been throwing a decent ball most of the year and when flair or wolfe get their hands on a ball they usually find a way to make the catch. great hands. Summers is not a bad back either but he is obviously going to ahve zero success. Would not be all that surprised if unlv was held to negative yards net rushing in this game. Not kidding when i say that. So they will be relying heavily on that passing game. Have to disagree veehemntly regarding Dalton. He is significantly superior to jackson and one of the most improved qb's year over year this season. This teams passing offense takes a serious nosedive when jackson plays. The playcalling is also very different. Patterson did not show nearly the trust in jackson that he does in Dalton. With jackson at qb at csu and sdsu they threw the ball five less attempts per game. It didn't help tcu in that game that jackson is miserable at making proper decisions in the read option, which was the staple of their offense that day when patterson did not want to lose the game by an offensive mistake. I think this difference is VERY significant so we disagree there.
i realize why you bring up weather because when tcu was on the road against csu the weather was probably a factor. but looking at this matchup, the weather being nice helps unlv here too...if weather was bad unlv wouldn't have much of a shot at all because they wouldn't be able to throw it.
Jackson couldn't handle a snap and the cold mitigates team speed advantage somewhat on really cold days , especially cold and wet days like in colorado that particular day. Completely agree with you that unlv needs decent weather to have any chance of moving the ball in this game. I always prefer bad weather when i have a big dog though and always prefer good weather when i am laying a huge number. But your point is well taken ...
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absolutely agree this is one of the best defenses and the best run defense there is. however, this is probably the most balanced offense they've faced outside of oklahoma. will unlv be able to run? no, but i think it's important for the passing game that the threat is there, and they've already came out and said they were definitely gameplanning to run the ball.
Heh ... they can say that all they want ... the rebels know they are going to be throwing a lot in this game. They could very well be one of the more balanced offenses but i just don't think my rebels can block tc up front and that is going to lead to negative plays and most likely turnovers. Unlv ball security has been good but we all know that can't last forever , especially when you are throwing from behind the chains for an entire game. I also think we are not giving enough credit to the tcu pass defense. With the run defense getting all the hype , we try to find holes in the pass defense but it has really been ok save oklahoma. I do think the secondary is the most vulnerable part of the defense and i won't be surprised if unlv completes a big play or two ... but the rebels will not be able to drive downt he field completing passes in my estimation.
my obvious concern is unlv's run defense, so i agree with you there, but i always say that home emotion helps that. i still don't doubt tcu will be successful, but if the game's remotely close, the home emotion should help make some stops they normally wouldn't get. i know you mention that they didn't stop it vs air force and vs nevada, but i think there will be even more emotion here because tcu being a highly ranked team in a night game and a win here could propel them into a bowl game. also, they were still competitive in those two games (nevada score a bit deceiving as the game was close until mid 4th quarter) despite giving up gaudy rushing numbers. they were playing awful defenses, and step up significantly in opposing talent defensively, yes, but my point is they proved they can still be competitive and it's something they're used to. this is still a huge concern though, don't wanna downplay it too much. as far as the emotional thing, i disagree again there...i think they're in a much much better spot than tcu is. they have been heartbroken in games they've been competitive in for basically four games in a row now, and still have come out and played hard and competitively against teams that were more talented than them...and now they're going to be flat in a night home game against a ranked opponent? the flat team is definitely going to the team that has to play 2 games in 6 days....the first to a 3-5 team that has terrible defense and the second is the best team in the conference and one of the best in the country. i think there's virtually no way tcu will be able to give 100% focus and energy here. and to o-state's point...yes, we can predict emotion. very well i think. especially when we have virtually the same type of spot (although as we agreed a much different opponent) and how flat they played before. now with national eyes on them and this game coming up a lot more, it's going to be to an even greater extent imo. i never like laying double digits on the road in conference, but especially when i'm confident that the focus won't be there for the team i'm laying with, and reasonably confident the home team getting over two tds won't turn the ball over to give the visiting team easy scores. and, both teams are definitely going to try to establish the run, which means a shortened game. so you can have a pretty decisive victory of 27-16, and have the cover never really even be in doubt
First , as a local i got a little chuckle about the emotion of a night game at home for unlv ..... i realize you are in bigten country but a football game at sam boyd is not a huge emotion filled stadium. Vegas is a basketball school and a basketball town. Football fans jump off the bandwagon here quickly and off of 4 consecutive losses their aren't many people left on there. The night home game doesn't mean much here. Unlv could very well come out flat for this game. But i certainly am not counting on that ... i dont think i need them to come out flat ..... if they do then tcu wins by 31. I am basing the bet under the assumption that unlv brings their "A' game. I also think , since you have mentioned it a couple times , that you might be playing with some fools gold in regards to unlv ball security. Different animal when you play tcu and have bad third down situation after bad third down situation. Not sure why you would predict unlv to win the turnover battle. Sure unlv has only turned it over 6 times ... but they have only forced 6 as well. TCU has given it up just 9 times while forcing 23..... and the level of competition difference is significant in my opinion.
In regards to the nevada game ... both offenses matched up well vs one another with nevadas great rushing attack vs unlv swiss cheese rush defense and with unlv pass attack vs nevada poor pass defense. One thing i have noticed is just how poorly unlv has defended the read option in particular .. or any option for that matter. see afa and nevada. My point is that i can see tcu having similar success vs unlv defense as the wolfpack had but don't see nearly the same thing when i look at rebels offense vs tcu compared to nevada. I find this significant because it means with shorter drives that the rebel rush defense gets tired all the faster.
How does unlv shorten the game with the run again ??? no way. impossible. Again , i wouldn't be surprised if rebels finished with negative rush yards for the game. Seems to me if you like unlv you better be confident in them producing stops and it better be because of motivation or a matchup that you see and NOT as a result of HFA ... because as a local i can tell you that it is not a big advantage at all.//// Sam boyd aint the shoe.....
I will try to put up a post concerning the matchups from a statistical perspective. Obviously when one team is a two td fav on the road they are going to look better .... but these numbers are just sick.
Agree to disagree ,....... no avatar bet from me though :36_11_6: