2008 cfb -- time to post my week 10 card so far

[O-State]

VK I'm here to tell you I already locked Ville in I think it's solid. Only play I've put money on thus far.

You know Memphis is the type of offense that English hates. Cuse is straight on and English loves it. COMPLETELY different matchups IMO. Actually there is no I think, I KNOW they are different. This run defense for Ville is solid from my standpoint. You know I don't know about what type of rush offenses Ville has faced but I know USF was held to 11 yards, 11, that's domination and USF can run the ball. UConn is going to get over 100 on Texas rushing, or point being just about every single D1 team in college football. My eye test says Ville is playing fundamental sound defense. Syracuse's offensive playcalling consists of run and playaction. I just see that as fitting into Ville hand's i've seen English over the years he'll take that.

PITT---126-241 rush, 137-136 pass, 0-1 TO’s
WVU--139-216 rush, 207-52 pass, 0-1 TO’s
USF----101-239 rush, 129-248 pass, 1-1 TO’s

All this tells me is that we have consistent relyable information on what is going to happen Saturday. Ville is going to win this rushing battle by over 100 yards easily. Because personally I do put Ville in Pitt, WVU, USF category. I also take Ville over Northwetern. Dmoney I know you said you take Cincy over Ville, so maybe your this has more to do with your assessment of Ville.

---Cuse had a kickoff return for a TD against Pitt and I mean it's Wanny playing down to level of competition.
---WVU did not have Pat White.

Out of 7 games, 4 of them Cuse could not cover 14 points. 2 were Pitt and WVU and some reasons for that mentioned above. The other was 1AA Northeastern.

I am VERY confident Syracuse will struggle to get 20 points here barring special teams or defensive touchdowns. Plays right into my man's English's hands.

Actually what I was more concerned about is Ville scoring because the one thing holding this team back right now is Cantwell and the passing game and if the run is stopped they can be bad. The USFs, the Northwestern's, Akron, and Penn State had the element of pass. A more dynamic offense give Cuse more troubles as opposed to a straight ahead approach like their own. WVU and Pitt did not have that and they struggled as we saw. So that is the only thing that gives me some concern but I do think Ville has a VERY strong rushing attack and they will have success considereing the amount of possessions they will have. Plus 6 out of 7 opponents exluding Northeastern have gotten 30 points on Cuse, only one that did not was WVU without Pat White. Pitt really did struggle and then once they saw they might be in danger they took control and dominated and got to 34 points.

I mean the USF line was -24. Now this line is -14??

Honestly I love the matchup the only question would be does Ville want to go in to the Carrier Dome and kick some Orange ass and I think we have enough basis to believe they do beyond a reasonable doubt.

 

[O-State]

Let me just reiterate how much importance I'm placing on matchup and style and Ron English D what problems they present to this Cuse O.

Memphis and Cuse are 20000% different matchups. Fellas do me a favor and go look at Michigan when they completely shut down most offenses until they came up against someone like ohhh, with a spread, say Troy Smith and Ohio State

This is the main reason I am playing the game I see Cuse struggling like hell to score.

 

[RetroVK]

VK I'm here to tell you I already locked Ville in I think it's solid. Only play I've put money on thus far.

You know Memphis is the type of offense that English hates. Cuse is straight on and English loves it. COMPLETELY different matchups IMO. Actually there is no I think, I KNOW they are different. This run defense for Ville is solid from my standpoint. You know I don't know about what type of rush offenses Ville has faced but I know USF was held to 11 yards, 11, that's domination and USF can run the ball. UConn is going to get over 100 on Texas rushing, or point being just about every single D1 team in college football. My eye test says Ville is playing fundamental sound defense. Syracuse's offensive playcalling consists of run and playaction. I just see that as fitting into Ville hand's i've seen English over the years he'll take that.

PITT---126-241 rush, 137-136 pass, 0-1 TO’s
WVU--139-216 rush, 207-52 pass, 0-1 TO’s
USF----101-239 rush, 129-248 pass, 1-1 TO’s

All this tells me is that we have consistent relyable information on what is going to happen Saturday. Ville is going to win this rushing battle by over 100 yards easily. Because personally I do put Ville in Pitt, WVU, USF category. I also take Ville over Northwetern. Dmoney I know you said you take Cincy over Ville, so maybe your this has more to do with your assessment of Ville.

---Cuse had a kickoff return for a TD against Pitt and I mean it's Wanny playing down to level of competition.
---WVU did not have Pat White.

Out of 7 games, 4 of them Cuse could not cover 14 points. 2 were Pitt and WVU and some reasons for that mentioned above. The other was 1AA Northeastern.

I am VERY confident Syracuse will struggle to get 20 points here barring special teams or defensive touchdowns. Plays right into my man's English's hands.

Actually what I was more concerned about is Ville scoring because the one thing holding this team back right now is Cantwell and the passing game and if the run is stopped they can be bad. The USFs, the Northwestern's, Akron, and Penn State had the element of pass. A more dynamic offense give Cuse more troubles as opposed to a straight ahead approach like their own. WVU and Pitt did not have that and they struggled as we saw. So that is the only thing that gives me some concern but I do think Ville has a VERY strong rushing attack and they will have success considereing the amount of possessions they will have. Plus 6 out of 7 opponents exluding Northeastern have gotten 30 points on Cuse, only one that did not was WVU without Pat White. Pitt really did struggle and then once they saw they might be in danger they took control and dominated and got to 34 points.

I mean the USF line was -24. Now this line is -14??

Honestly I love the matchup the only question would be does Ville want to go in to the Carrier Dome and kick some Orange ass and I think we have enough basis to believe they do beyond a reasonable doubt.

this is how i am thinking as well.

i always like to find the spots where the better team is not looking past the lesser team ... and this fits as well as any.

 

[pags11]

kyle,

just remember that you were the only one who liked Virginia too last week and they won outright...nice call...

 

[O-State]

You know what VK I'm wavering on West Virginia.

Dmoney made a great point I mean they still might be a little soft. I think it was "finesse team that hasn't proven anything on the road yet." And then you have UConn who is a hard nosed gritty team.

Really both teams have had their good and bad moments defending the run. They both gave up 72, 76 to Rutgers rushing. UConn has fared really nicely except against Baylor and Louisville and that Baylor game is what scares me if I'm a Husky. Temple and UNC got some yards. WVU has fared well too except for some games. Colorado, ECU, Auburn dominated at times, and Cuse put some yards up. The Colorado ground game though how much came in the first half? hell first quarter? I think WVU has improved some.

Both teams are going to have so much success on the ground here. Question is who has more success.

Difference might be big play ability of West Virginia in overall speed to take one run to the house. I give UConn a pass edge but not by much and that is not a good thing. UConn needs to have big plays and win the pass battle.

This to me looks like two run based teams. Personally I think that "soft" stuff might be overrated. Lean WVU but not sure how strong

 

[O-State]

Talk to me, is WVU finesse? I'm not so sure. I think Pat White is an injury prone puss at times. When Rich Rod was there they were known for being a mentally tough physical team. I mean shit this is a run based team, how are they finesse? Their rb and qb can be finesse, but I think their OL and playcalling isn't SMU.

Some of those stretch plays can look finesse. Zone blocking, not a straight smashmouth but I've never seen a good running team be finesse or soft.

 

[E.T.G.]

i go to bed every night saying a prayer that Iowa beats Penn St on Nov 8

 

[Marlo]

Great call with Virg, I know you were a little uneasy about that on Thursday, but come Saturday you had no worries.

Good luck this week.

 

[Dmoney416]

Ok:

Well, I know that WVU was asleep against Syracuse and that they were without Pat White, but they did have that 92-yard run with 4:00 left in the game. Not saying you can eliminate it, but it certainly skews WVU rushing success there (I'm sure you knew I was going to mention this).

Also, I don't see why Dantley can't go for 175 and a score. Hall wad great success against them, even Joe Craddock held his own. Really don't see why Dantley wouldn't hold his own.

 

[RetroVK]

kyle,

just remember that you were the only one who liked Virginia too last week and they won outright...nice call...

that's true.... and thanks.

Grats on another 5-2 week for you.

 

[Dmoney416]

VK I'm here to tell you I already locked Ville in I think it's solid. Only play I've put money on thus far.

You know Memphis is the type of offense that English hates. Cuse is straight on and English loves it. COMPLETELY different matchups IMO. Actually there is no I think, I KNOW they are different. This run defense for Ville is solid from my standpoint. You know I don't know about what type of rush offenses Ville has faced but I know USF was held to 11 yards, 11, that's domination and USF can run the ball. UConn is going to get over 100 on Texas rushing, or point being just about every single D1 team in college football. My eye test says Ville is playing fundamental sound defense. Syracuse's offensive playcalling consists of run and playaction. I just see that as fitting into Ville hand's i've seen English over the years he'll take that.

He may hate playing teams like Memphis, but I don't see that as a enough of an excuse. Hall is a sub-par QB, and he just ate them alive with inferior talent.

PITT---126-241 rush, 137-136 pass, 0-1 TO’s
WVU--139-216 rush, 207-52 pass, 0-1 TO’s
USF----101-239 rush, 129-248 pass, 1-1 TO’s

All this tells me is that we have consistent relyable information on what is going to happen Saturday. Ville is going to win this rushing battle by over 100 yards easily. Because personally I do put Ville in Pitt, WVU, USF category. I also take Ville over Northwetern. Dmoney I know you said you take Cincy over Ville, so maybe your this has more to do with your assessment of Ville.

Assuming a team will out-rush another by 100 is a bit dangerous going into any game I think. The stats back it up, but I want to see them prove it on the road.

I don't put Louisville in that category as I put them toward the bottom of the BE. I would place them at 5th/6th at this point. The gap is that big between 5th and 1st because the BE is a jumble, but I don't put them with those other teams. I would put Lousivlle ahead of Northwestern, but I also think that every team in the BE is better than Northwestern with the exception of Syracuse.

I do think Cincy is better - I know you can't analyze college football in these simple terms, but this is how I look at LV/Cincy:

QB: Even/slight advantage Louisville (would prefer Cantwell to Anderson or a hobbled Pike, but would prefer a healthy Pike or Grutza to Cantwell)

RB: Big advantage Louisville

WR: Big advantage Cincinnati

OL: I'll give the slight edge to Louisville due to their running game, but Cincy doesn't run enough to prove the OL's worth in that area.

Run defense: even

Pass defense: Moderate/Big advantage Cincinnati

Special teams: Big advantage Cincinnati

---Cuse had a kickoff return for a TD against Pitt and I mean it's Wanny playing down to level of competition.
---WVU did not have Pat White.

Out of 7 games, 4 of them Cuse could not cover 14 points. 2 were Pitt and WVU and some reasons for that mentioned above. The other was 1AA Northeastern.

I am VERY confident Syracuse will struggle to get 20 points here barring special teams or defensive touchdowns. Plays right into my man's English's hands.

Can't argue with any of the above. I wouldn't chalk Louisville up for an automatic 35 either though.

Actually what I was more concerned about is Ville scoring because the one thing holding this team back right now is Cantwell and the passing game and if the run is stopped they can be bad. The USFs, the Northwestern's, Akron, and Penn State had the element of pass. A more dynamic offense give Cuse more troubles as opposed to a straight ahead approach like their own. WVU and Pitt did not have that and they struggled as we saw. So that is the only thing that gives me some concern but I do think Ville has a VERY strong rushing attack and they will have success considereing the amount of possessions they will have. Plus 6 out of 7 opponents exluding Northeastern have gotten 30 points on Cuse, only one that did not was WVU without Pat White. Pitt really did struggle and then once they saw they might be in danger they took control and dominated and got to 34 points.

Can't argue here either.

I mean the USF line was -24. Now this line is -14??

That was at USF though, which means USF would have been -17/17.5 at Syracuse at that time. Seems right to me. They may have even made it short in their mind at USF would later be -4 @Louisville.

Honestly I love the matchup the only question would be does Ville want to go in to the Carrier Dome and kick some Orange ass and I think we have enough basis to believe they do beyond a reasonable doubt.

I think they do as well, just not for the same reason (which is revenge). I think its because all of these 1-loss BE teams could still win the BE if they make a run.

 

[RetroVK]

o-state ... here are my concerns with the wvu play. They were not enough to keep me off of the game.

1. pat white is a wimp --- he gets hurt it becomes unlikely that this team can score enough. he is extremely injury prone and lacks leadership qualities or ability to play in pain.

2. edsall vs stewart -- probably my biggest concern. Edsall can flat out coach and always seems to have his team in a position to win at the end of the game. Not only giving him credit for that but also giving the kids credit. They believe now that if they can just hang close that they cant get a key turnover or that the other team will make a key mistake late. Stewart is a trainwreck.

3. WVU will be the square side -- Does not mean that it won't win but this is one of the squarest sides of the week. suspect the public will be all over wvu here based on teh good game vs auburn.

4. one thing that stood out in the first half of that game the other day though was auburns ability to line it up and run it at wvu. uconn rush offense miles ahead of auburn.

5. i never win a bet against uconn no matter how much my team outplays them.

6. what if auburn game was a fluke ? --throw out the last game and wvu hasn't really shown much. I think you could argue that they have when white was in the game and not when he has been out but i have a concern that i have fallen into the the "last game" ..."what have you done for me lately " trap that kills bankrolls.

7. strength of schedule --uconn went into rutgers and played pretty even with them. they won at louisville while being badly outplayed ... but still won. They forced a decent cincy into a ton of turnovers last week. They played extremely well at UNC but lost on some blocked punts. Even their lesser opponents of virginia ( bad team at the time they played ) temple and baylor are not horrific football teams. West Virginia on the other hand has had a cake schedule.


8. officiating -- uconn never seems to get the short end of the stick on this. WVU agaisn the auburn DL had zero offensive holding calls. Against the much weaker uconn DL we will see a few offensive holding calls in this game. Have to factor in the referree love for uconn.

9. uconn has a horseshoe up their ass-- Even if uconn gets dominated , they might still cover.


so definitely some concerns

 

[tee*dub]

They are going to let us cash on Iowa again aren't they.."secret: shhh

Off a bye week, emerging NFL caliber RB, QB getting more confidence weekly, top defense..:smiley_acbe:

 

[RetroVK]

They are going to let us cash on Iowa again aren't they.."secret: shhh

Off a bye week, emerging NFL caliber RB, QB getting more confidence weekly, top defense..:smiley_acbe:

yup love the fact they are off a bye so we dont have to worry about look ahead to penn state.

if it ain't broke ......

 

[Blue_Chip]

Off a bye week, emerging NFL caliber RB, QB getting more confidence weekly, top defense..

Sets up beautifully for a bet on Iowa. My main thing is the Iowa defense containing Juice. After that, it's all good because Iowa is a balanced team and will help themselves. Not to mention, Greene will do his part to keep Illini's offense off the field.

 

[RetroVK]

i go to bed every night saying a prayer that Iowa beats Penn St on Nov 8

i will be betting iowa almost for sure there as well. Will be interesting to see hwo they line the game.

Think there is a decent chance that your prayers are answered.

Also , appreciate the great post you made in my thread last week. Apologize that i ran out of time and didn't get to talk with you about it.

 

[RetroVK]

Great call with Virg, I know you were a little uneasy about that on Thursday, but come Saturday you had no worries.

Good luck this week.

yeah virginia made it look pretty routine. GT now a home dog to fsu ... what a difference a week makes.

Tough matchup again for GT.

 

[SportsNut]

But they thoroughly outplayed uconn .. deceiving score.

I agree . However sometimes that is built into a perception of a time already and other times its not . I felt for instince with WVU alot of things were overlooked last week in terms of WVU recent performance but dont see that here . They followed up UConn by possibly being outplayed Memphis but won and covered . Which to me sort of even's out the process the so called balanciing of the scales . Bad sign for a team to outplay someone at home and lose SU forget about pt spreads though this was small where a SU win was basically a cover .

Its more of a lean on CUSE because of there recent competitive play but really for me a play against Louisville as 2 TD road favs .

I look at Louisville last season and granted the defense was a mess the team was in transition as a whole as well . They played 11 D1 teams and allowed 38 + pts in 7 of them , the only 2 + TD wins they had were @ NCST 29-10 and home vs Mid Tenn State 58-42 , so while Cuse did beat them SU last year MTSU as 41 pt dogs gave them a battle as well . Now did they have any sort of emphasis on delivering a knockout to MTSU few weeks ago ? So far under Kragthorpe they won their BE games by 3,4 and 7 last year and just beast USF by 4 . They lost at home to UConn this year and last year lost 4x @ USF , @ WVU , @ UConn and vs Cuse .

So while I agree this s=is a much different team then Week 1 vs Kentucky especially since it has since found a running game I see a few things here . Also Long being healthy again after missing the first four or so games . Louisville despite a vastily improved defense still finds ways to allow points every game . Louisville was 1-3 with a 4 pt win last season on the road in conference play and 2-4 overall (win @ NCSTATE) and this year is 1-0 with a TD win @ Memphis. Now go to this year they have wins by 9 vs KState , 4 vs USF , 7 @ memphis and 19 vs MTSU as 14.5 pt favs . So they have only 3 wins past 2 years by more then 2 TDs and two of them at home vs MTSU who is solid but still a mid major playing on the road at a BE school and the other was vs a terrible NCSTATE team.

I also feel USF is VERY overrated this season or at least underperforming by a great deal . So I look at the Ville offense and it didnt do all that much vs the USF defense IMO: a 1 play 69yd yd TD pass / drive after USF had settled for a FG , after a sack then punt really good field position on the USF 42 and score there 2nd TD , a decent drive to get the FG , and then the last TD was decent field position at there own 37 and aided late in the drive by a 15 yd penalty assume pass intereference to lazy to check now .

Basically that Memphis game is really scary for me . I look at how past Cuse games have seen good games by the QB and wonder if they will be able to duplicate it or feel comfortable vs the Ville defense on some level. Which last year the Ville scored just before half to go up 7-6 and it was 21-13 after Cuse scored with 5 to play but Ville iced it with a TD shortly after . More evidence that Cuse seems to play well for the 1st H then fade (even if it was last year).

Andrew Robinson 17/26 423 yds 4 Tds / 0 Ints (Cuse led 21-7 at half , Cuse led 31-14 after 3 Qs and again Cuse led 38-21 but Ville scored 2 TDs inside the final 4 minutes so as 35pt dogs Cuse finally pulled off that upset that brewing for a few years )
Perry Patterson 24/38 303 yds Td / Int (Ville led 7-6 at half , 14-6 after 3 Q , 21-13 with 5 to play and scored inside 2 minutes for the final margin as 17.5 pts favs)
Patterson 19/39 259yds TD/ 2 INT( Ville lead 21-10 at half , 24-17 after 3 Qs and 27-17 till less then 4 minutes left in the game when Ville scored twice but were 37 pt favs )

So now Cuse comes off a BYE while Ville is off a hard fought home win . Another thing I see is the fact its a 7 PM game so it might be a good as enviroment as CUse can have these days . I also think forget strength of schedule what I was alluding to earlier in Cuse feeling comfortable against the Ville defense might have soem foundation from this tiny article I read. :

Syracuse is 1-6 overall and 0-3 in the Big East going into its second bye weekend of the season. It has just finished playing Pittsburgh, West Virginia and South Florida in succession with two of those games on the road. Those three teams appear to be the class of the Big East Conference, which brings me to this little exchange between former SU head coach Dick MacPherson and current SU head coach Greg Robinson during Sunday's press conference.
"(Shoot), you've played the best three teams in the Big East right now," MacPherson said to Robinson. "That's a helluva schedule to play right in a row. I don't think I'd want to play South Florida, West Virginia and Pitt again. You know what I'm saying, right in a row. The encouraging thing for the kids, they've played and competed against the best of the Big East."
"I don't disagree," said Robinson. "I think we could've done a better job (Saturday against South Florida). At the same time, I don't want to minimize the effort of South Florida because they are a good football team. I think having a bye right now is very good for us because I think the next five weeks, we're playing teams we know a lot about. It'll be interesting to see how it all comes about."

Forget Penn State but this team is winless basically besides NEastern. They seem to have heart at home but real 4th Q issues no matter when we look at there games . They started poorly vs Akron getting down 21-7 mid 2 Q but battled back to tie it at 28 early 4th Q but Akron pulled away scoring the last 2 TDs . Think vs NEastern they fumbled inside the red zone and later settled for 2 FGs in the 4th Q on long drives possible being conservative with a lead . So they didnt punt all ay I dont believe and could have put up 45 pts but even here outscored vs NEastern in the 4th Q .

Cuse just seems improved greatly past 3 games even if it doesnt look that way on the surface . They have to overcome there 4thq woes though would really be interested in playing Ville 4th Q if I could . On the flip Ville has issues of its own seemingly finding ways to allow 20+ pts this year even though improved on defense . Which if Cuse get 20-24 pts it becomes a real tough cover for Ville IMO . I am realy not much into general stats in my football capping . Teams can stop the run all day but allow a 70yd TD run or allow 5 yds a clip but the opponent settles for FG everytime inisde the red zone( or vice versa). I just look more at the overall teams and how the line plays into it . I do think the Special team edge come be gigantic for Cuse since they have a good return game but really for the difference in FG kicking . Nothing especially on the road hurts more then a missed FG that is very makeable. Look at Auburn @ WVU and the game got away from the Tigers when they missed that FG , seen happen so many times . With Cuse as well though bad teams can see games get away from them quickly once the momentum swings which I believe is what happens to them alot. They dont know how to stop the opponents momentum and it snowballs on them . Inept offenses often have this problem but Cuse might be a tad better off then some since it can run the ball. Look at UCF yesterday as a good example.....

GL - Lean Cuse 1st H .....:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

:shake:

yeah virginia made it look pretty routine. GT now a home dog to fsu ... what a difference a week makes.

Tough matchup again for GT.

Clearly we differed on this one and you were absolutely correct in saying GT would continue to have their miscue issues . I just dont think it was easy by any stretch for UVA . Which I applaud UVA for a great effort but thought it was more about GT's inability at key moments to make plays .

"I'm really disappointed," said Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech's first-year coach. "We made enough mistakes in about every area to lose the game twice over."

Opening kick credit to UVA for moving the ball but inside the red zone 6plays 13yds and 1st down settle for 3 pts . Which is exactly what I would expect vs GT defense for the better unit to clamp down when it needed to. Also though I believe GT kicked it out of bounds and UVA started ta their own 40 yd line . They had 3 pass plays in the first ran that were 10-15 yds and then only 1 play which gained more then 3 yards .

GT gets the ball goes 11 plays 73 yds and scores . GT 7-3

UVA's next possession they move the ball from the UVA to 17 to midfield . On 1st down lose yds on a run then Verica gets picked those INTs I thought would play a role .

GT ball on the UVA 45 . On the 1st play get 42 yds on a pass then run it in the end zone next one . GT up 14-3 tad over 1 to play before the 1st Q ends .

Have to be honest here and say that I really thought GT was about to blow this game open shortly .

Here is where I started to wonder though . UVA gets the ball and suddenly they are running fairly effeciently . Again decent field position at their own 34 to start. Some key plays UVA 3rd and 1 at their own 43 and assume GT stacked the line and Peerman not only got the 1st but 17 yds to GT 40. really not much after that in terms of big plays but jsut enough it seemed each play to always keep it 3rd and manageable . They get a 3rd and 2 conversion with 6yd pass , they are 3rd and 7 at the GT 23 then get an 8 yd pass , then they were put in 2nd and 14 from the GT 19 and get 5 yards to set up the 3rd and 9 at the 14 to which Verica hit Ogletree for a 14 yd TD to make it 14-10 .

That drive was concerning ebcause the amount of 3rd down conversions they had . They had a lot of chances to hold UVA to 3 pts and couldnt . Bad sign .

More bad news IMO now . THE GT defense couldnt stop UVA at crucial points so now the GT offense to get the momentum back . For some reason they fucked up there play calling on this drive . They had ran every play except after the turnover they looked to pass and hit a 42 yder to Dwyer which was great time to call pass IMO after all runs the previous drive and momentum from the turnover. Now I think you want to mirror the 1st drive and see if you can grind out a drive , hopefully score and get your defense a break. They run on 1st down and only get 2 yds which was there worst run to date gaining less then 4 yds on really inisde the UVA 10yd line previously. Anyway they call a pass on 2nd down which goes INC and guess means they have to pass on 3rd and 8 which is INC and they have to punt . Absolutely terrible IMO to throw on 2nd down . Like I said they OC should be aware that he needs to grind out a drive and its an option team with nothing but success so far running the ball . So that little decision on 2nd down really handed UVA alot more momentum.

What happens next ? 1st down and UVA picks up 23 yds on a pass to get to midfield , then get 9 more yds next play but after not picking up anything they go for it on 4th and 1 at the GT 42 and Verica gets a yd to convert on the QB keeper . Then UVA on 3rd and 12 at the GT 28 sees verica throw his 2nd pick . Which again I expected 2-3 Ints from him . They were probably a decent chance to get 3 pts there as well . On the flip though they could have easily not converted on 4th and 1 as well . So GT gets some momentum back on the pick not much as I would normally guess though.

Now GT moving the ball to midfield again makes a huge mistake . On 2nd and 8 from the 50 they get a 10 yd holding penalty . Which I cant recall to be honest but think it did take away a 1st down and fairly decent yardage play . So a run offense is now 2nd and 18 and in need of a big play . Cant get it and punt it back.

Which its halftime now GT 14-10 . UVA had some issues settling for a FG , throwing 2 Ints one of which took away a FG attempt from 45 or so yards but GT had under the radar mistakes on 3rd down defense , play calling , and a holding penalty that also hurt .

To start the 2nd H GT ball and again they are moving it on the ground . Then on 1st and 10 at GT 47 Nesbitt fumbles . Another stalled drive .

Now UVA ball at their 47. Take it to 3rd and 3 and again they convert for 12 yards . Now at the GT 34 and looking to score they get a 34 yd TD pass on 1st down and get the lead . However it appears that UVA's OL got away with a hold which would have cost them 10 yds , taken away the TD and possiblygiven GT a huge momentum shift .

Johnson complained that a lineman grabbed him around the neck on Verica's second TD, and the replay seemed to back him up. No flag was thrown.
"I feel that's one you just have to call," Johnson said, "when it's a crucial situation like that and the ref is standing right there."

GT ball now trailing and they pick up a 3rd and 8 as its obvious UVA's defense has adjusted to the run . So pickup a nice chunk on a 3rd pass completion and conversion. Seems like a great time to pass on 1st down at their 45 . Nope they run for no game , then an INC and sack and 1st an d10 at teh GT45 produces nothing ......

UVA ball and they handcuff themselves with a hodling penalty on 2nd down and have to punt . For the most part the UVA defense did little when put in long situations. Think both INTs came on 2nd and 14 then 3rd and 12 . PUNT.

Jones good return sets up the GT offense at UVA 45 down 17-14 . Stick to the run and while they dont do much on 1st down runs are quickly inside the UVA 10. 1st and goal at the 9 yd line they get 4 by Nesbitt and on 2nd and goal from the 5 yd Nesbitt fumbles the exchange . TURNOVER . Hard to imagine that GT doesnt score a TD but worst case its a tie game .

At least UVA is backed up at the 7 but has momentum behind them AGAIn. UVA moves it again and converts TWO 3rd and 1s but again fuck up with a holding penalty making it 1st and 20 from the UVA 25 . they get it 3rd and 10 and for the 2nd time just barely get enough picking up 10yds to convert . Then on 3rd and 7 at their 48 they GT defense sacks Verica and causes a fumble his 3rd turnover .

GT ball and they drive converting a HUGE 4th down . They started at the UVA 31 and were 4t and 7 at the 28 but went for it and picked up 16 yds . So now 1st and 10 from the 12 . They never got the memo that UVA had adjusted and stopped Jones on 1st down runs but still they go to it . Of course another no gain , foolowed by Dwyer for 3 yards but 3rd and 7 Nesbitt drops back and gets sacked losing 12 yds . They get a FG to know it at 17.

Naturally a credit to UVA but the GT defense fails again. UVA killed GT with short passes to Peerman all day but the last drive is bad. Anyway UVA moves the ball and 2nd and 10 at the GT 44 they allow a 31 yd run by Peerman and after slowing them down on 3rd and 8 from teh GT 11 the UVA boys do it again just getting enough for the 1st down and then scoring next play . I think on 2 of their drives they scored on they picked up a CRUCIAL 3rd down but just enough to move the chains . Plus 2 other times in the game which they actually had turnovers later those drives .

GT ball with 3:30 to play and moving the ball but 1st down play call was at pass around the GT 45 and they take a huge sack which kills the clock and loses 15 yds. They somehow got the 1st down but wasted a minute just moving 10 yards . It was 2:30 to play on the GT 41 and was nearly 1:30 to play when on 1st down from the uVA 49 Nesbitt was picked .

Just thought a terrible job by GT all day making adjustments and UVA excellent job doing so after the 1st Q . GT never stopped them on 3rd downs whether short or long always seemed UVA found a way to convert . GT on offense again as VK predicted continued to self destruct on offense . I really think though UVA played about as good game as it could have and got all the breaks it could have hoped for and still while winning did so by just a TD . Cant dismiss how crucial no call on the UVA TD to take the lead was because at 14-10 they might not have put up any points ..

UVA OL is real solid and GT even said it was probably the best it had faced . Overall though GT really self destructed here and played very poorly after the 1st quarter . Verica played better then expected but he also was smart to use Peerman in the passing game and keep the chains moving. Peerman had 46 yds on the last drive I think on 5 carries so for the most part he was held in check around 20c for 72 yds but 5 R 55yds tells us how effective he was in the pass game also had 13 yd reception on the last drive. Just another story of one team failing to excute and another making the most of its opportunities .

Basically I think even if UVA dulpicates that game which despite 3 turnovers was near perfect but the timing off the turnovers wasnt that bad and really oustide of the 1st one wasnt all that costly . GT just failed in so many ways and levels as Johnson said . Terrible play calling after the 1st Q not adjusting to UVA adjusting on defense, penalties , turnovers and insanely bad 3rd down defense .

UVA certainly deserved to win but have to feel like GT is more disgusted with themselves then impressed with UVA .....After consecutive wins like this for UVA and believe VK leans Miami I think Cavs are in for a dose of reality . Although Miami can certainly fuck up enough to hand the Cavs another win ....:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Actually reading Mags comments on Miami @ UVA makes me solidify a play on Miami here . Just how he talks about how Miami really costs themselves a few wins already and UVA is off 2 wins IMO where their opponents cost themselves wins giving UVA wins .

 

[RetroVK]

Ok i watched every play of the game and just read every word of your play-by-play ...... and i can't find where you don't think the game was routine ?? I think both teams left some opportunities out on the field but Virginia offense was far more consistent than GT. When i said routine , i meant vs the spread and not the straight up win , whcih might be where we are confusing things. After virginia wasted their first chance of the game and settled for 3 and GT had 14 points on the board there was a brief period of time where there was concern that it was going to get blown open.

the box score for those who didnt watch.

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>

</TD><TD>

</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>17</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>11-18</TD><TD>4-10</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>2-2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>396</TD><TD>259</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>270</TD><TD>103</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>29-39</TD><TD>7-15</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>6.9</TD><TD>6.9</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>126</TD><TD>156</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>41</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>3.8</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>6-40</TD><TD>2-15</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>34:18</TD><TD>25:42</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



now i had a bad number at 11.5 but virginia was the team GETTING two td in this game.

Certainly virginia had an above average game with 3rd down conversion but held GT to 17 first downs and 17 points ....yeah 17 points as a teo td favorite. Sure , i think GT scores a td if they dont fumble it away down there on that one drive.... but even with a td the spread is not even close to being in jeopardy.

Flat out , virginia looked like the better football team.

 

[RetroVK]

Actually reading Mags comments on Miami @ UVA makes me solidify a play on Miami here . Just how he talks about how Miami really costs themselves a few wins already and UVA is off 2 wins IMO where their opponents cost themselves wins giving UVA wins .

Yup , i agree ... well not about virginia being given a win at GT ... i think they clearly outplayed GT ( for some reason you are not counting all of virginia blown opportunities ) ... but i think miamifl is a bad matchup for uva. Similar to unc matchup but with more offensive playmakers and defensive speed than the tarheels without tate.

Virginia has just been a different team with peerman in there though.

 

[nropp11]

Kyle you are completely correct I forgot about that what like 30 something dog win???

I think though the same applies to Illinois vs. Iowa though if you recall that game last year in Iowa City.

I certainly understand where you are going with Iowa but if Illinois shows up like they did vs. Penn State, Missouri, and Indiana I think they win. They did not show up vs. Wisconsin. Very emotional unstable team and they will be ready for this one. Juice if he shows up will put yards up on that Iowa defense.

Not saying you are but I see too many ppl that overeact with teams that win them money and crucify teams that don't.

yah, this is the problem. If Illinois shows up like they did versus PSU, Missouri, and Indiana.

Those three teams (maybe not PSU) all play bend but do not break defenses. I've said it since day 1 - Illinois will struggle and continue to struggle versus teams who are fundamental. Minnesota and Wisconsin fit that category, as does Louisiana Lafayette sadly. I'd prolly have to have a +3 to play Iowa, but yah, i'm hoping they lose so i can lay anything below two touchdowns at western michigan the following week.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Lay two TD's at WMU?

They may not be favored if they lose.

 

[nropp11]

Lay two TD's at WMU?

They may not be favored if they lose.

i'm saying if it's less than -14, i'll gladly lay it.

and they'll win by 20+

 

[RetroVK]

Also in regards to relating last weeks uva-gt line to this weeks miamifl-uva line ......

assuming a 3.5 or so for each homefield .... gt -6 at home to miamifl ?? but +2 to fsu ???

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Well you aren't going to have to lay two TD's...I'll be shocked if you are laying too much more than a FG....4.5 or so ...that's with a close game with Iowa either way then Ohio State in the Sandwich spot..

Awful, awful spot for Illy in that game.

 

[RetroVK]

i'm saying if it's less than -14, i'll gladly lay it.

and they'll win by 20+

I think if you like illini in that spot that you get a tastier line than that. You will be happy.

 

[RetroVK]

added wisconsin to my leans list. See huntdog thread as it has me looking deeper at this game and it's his biggest bet of the year so far so i want to get a second look at this one. Any time i can find a bet in big ten play i love it ... just destroy that conference....it is my Anti-bigeast.

eliminated houston, lsu and okie st

houston - this was a game i had circled as one i was almost sure i would pay but i thought the line was coming out 4/4.5 not a friggin 8 which priced me right out. great balanced offense with a really solid passsing game facing one of ,if not the worst pass defenses in the country. Houston is a team that has been victimized by some of the worst spots in all of cfb this year with having to play home games in different stadiums , having to fly in for road games on game day ( btw this happened to them last year at uab if i recall ..... wierd that it happened to same team twice in two years ) , dealing with the hurricane etc etc etc ... they just have not had many good spots which has led to some terrible first quarters. But they have had time to prepare for his one and its on national tv which marshall is probably more used to and houston can get up more for. still at -8 with an inconsistent team on the road i think it is too pricey for me ... might tease down if i can find a companion.

lsu -- i dont lay over 3 td unless i absolutely feel compelled to. spot is enough of a concern to make me look elsewhere. tulane is really banged up though and lsu might be angry. lsu was -41 or so at tulane last year .....was last years lsu team 23 points better than this years team ? ( 7 point hfa swing )


okie state -- sandwich. iowa st looks lost and okie st could go throught the motions and cover but its usually better to avoid the sandwich games.

 

[golferjoe]

I saw a mention concerning the Southern Cal schedule. At least USC and Ohio State stepped out of conference and played a worthy opponent. I'm not finding a worthy opponent that a big 12 school played. Missouri played Illinois and the Juice posted 42 on supposedly a "good" big 12 team.

These big 12 teams haven't played each other yet. TT will have 2 or 3 losses.

Mizzou schedule Illini, Nevada? Buffalo, Southeast Missouri State?

Texas Florida Atlantic, Utep, Arkansas, Rice???

Show me a quality opponent so we can gauge the strength of these teams. NONE

It's the same with mostly every team in every conference. How do we know how good Oklahoma or Texas is? They haven't played anyone except each other and they posted 35 on each other. The Okie game is different if Colt's interception in the endzone is ruled correctly.

Alabama is going down. That's a fact. They played one strong half against Georgia and that's it. Clemson is terrible offensively, ditto Tennessee. They will lose either to either LSU or in the SEC championship game.

So while the Pac10 is WAY down this year along with the Big Ten. Give credit to USC and tOSU for scheduling an opponent that has been a traditional POWER!!

 

[RetroVK]

I saw a mention concerning the Southern Cal schedule. At least USC and Ohio State stepped out of conference and played a worthy opponent. I'm not finding a worthy opponent that a big 12 school played. Missouri played Illinois and the Juice posted 42 on supposedly a "good" big 12 team.

These big 12 teams haven't played each other yet. TT will have 2 or 3 losses.

Mizzou schedule Illini, Nevada? Buffalo, Southeast Missouri State?

Texas Florida Atlantic, Utep, Arkansas, Rice???

Show me a quality opponent so we can gauge the strength of these teams. NONE

It's the same with mostly every team in every conference. How do we know how good Oklahoma or Texas is? They haven't played anyone except each other and they posted 35 on each other. The Okie game is different if Colt's interception in the endzone is ruled correctly.

Alabama is going down. That's a fact. They played one strong half against Georgia and that's it. Clemson is terrible offensively, ditto Tennessee. They will lose either to either LSU or in the SEC championship game.

So while the Pac10 is WAY down this year along with the Big Ten. Give credit to USC and tOSU for scheduling an opponent that has been a traditional POWER!!

This is fair ... but i would consider tcu a quality ooc opponent for oklahoma. Texas schedule is the toughest i can remember seeing in years .. if they get through it they deserv e a title shot. missouri shceduled illinois .. so i dont think schedule is that big of an issue.

kudos to usc and tosu no doubt.

This has always been my problem with the bcs system anyway,..... it is all based on assumptions about conferences ... what if mwc is better than pac10 this year as their head to head contests would clearly point to ?? shouldn't a one loss tcu be given a shot over a one loss usc ?? an undefeated utah over a one loss usc ?? a one loss utah if it is to tcu over a one loss usc --- since utah beat the team that beat usc ??

that is the problem .. what if the best team in the country is not in the best conference ?? the small conferences have no shot the way usc does and it makes the system a joke. We all think we know who is the best team and most deserving but we really don't. i am hitting in the mid fifties percentile with games that i am so confident on that i put my money down to play them ......who am i to say that tcu isnt the best team in the country ?

 

[SportsNut]

Ok i watched every play of the game and just read every word of your play-by-play ...... and i can't find where you don't think the game was routine ?? I think both teams left some opportunities out on the field but Virginia offense was far more consistent than GT. When i said routine , i meant vs the spread and not the straight up win , whcih might be where we are confusing things. After virginia wasted their first chance of the game and settled for 3 and GT had 14 points on the board there was a brief period of time where there was concern that it was going to get blown open.

the box score for those who didnt watch.

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left></TD><TD>

</TD><TD>

</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>17</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency

</TD><TD>11-18</TD><TD>4-10</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency

</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>2-2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>396</TD><TD>259</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>270</TD><TD>103</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att

</TD><TD>29-39</TD><TD>7-15</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass

</TD><TD>6.9</TD><TD>6.9</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>126</TD><TD>156</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts

</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>41</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush

</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>3.8</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>6-40</TD><TD>2-15</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost

</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown

</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>34:18</TD><TD>25:42</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



now i had a bad number at 11.5 but virginia was the team GETTING two td in this game.

Certainly virginia had an above average game with 3rd down conversion but held GT to 17 first downs and 17 points ....yeah 17 points as a teo td favorite. Sure , i think GT scores a td if they dont fumble it away down there on that one drive.... but even with a td the spread is not even close to being in jeopardy.

Flat out , virginia looked like the better football team.

I agree that UVA looked better but because GT was failing to execute and UVA was making plays . That was my point it's a very thin margin . I believe you look at the literal events of the game more definitively then I do . At least thats what I take from your weekly recaps . You tend to base the recap on what happened more so then worrying about the line and why you saw value in the line. The little things in a game to me is why outcomes occur . There was just alot of events in this game where if you went from UVA executing to GT defense executing or GT offense executing then the game result looks much different . Might be a tad skewed on what I am saying . UVA made nearly every play they had to. WHich is very impressive considering young QB , road game , tough defense . My point was it the UVA offense getting the credit or GTs defense failures helping UVA to execute .

I absolutely agree with the assessment that UVA was the better team this day . My question is why ?

You said UVA settled for a FG . On the road , young QB , good defense thats exactly what I would expect to happen though . So that was an instince of what supposed to happen occurring IMO . Just like when GT with the option offense at home inside the UVA 10 yd line I expect TDs not FGs . Settling is bad execution when they have such a wide edge . The edge being an option offense with alot of ways to gain yards not being able to get 10 or less in 3 or 4 attempts . Its insane that UVA won the TOP , rushing edge and ran more plays .

Thats all I am saying . Nothing about right or wrong . Just seeing GT failing to do anything of note after the 1st Q up 14-3 on eother side of the ball or in terms of play calling . So I am left thinking GT is severely playing below their talent but also showing it will not change anytime soon UNLESS this serves as a wakeup call.

Actually look at like this and I am not saying by any stretch GT deserved to cover but UVA got away with a hold on the go ahead TD so take that TD away . Then take away the Nesbitt mishandled snap inside the 5 yd which took away a TD probably . You could easily be looking at 21-10 entering the 4th Q . Not saying it should have happened or deserved to happen but emphasising the importance of execution, The winning team always executes better especially at crucial moments and thats basically what decides 80% of games . One owuld expect less miscues at home from GT considering some of the defenses they had played away. At least I would . The 3rd down conversion rate was insane for UVA especially th e4 squeakers they pulled out by inches to a yard....

Just a statement on execution really . Same deal I talked about with WVU last week when White played the offense executed like it was supposed to . So suprising that UVA on the road beat GT because of execution . I breakdown all games the same way and identify the key sequences . If I would have known UVA could out execute @ GT believe me I would have never laid 10-14 pts with them . Thats all I was trying to say .:cheers:

 

[golferjoe]

I read your writeups faithfully and agree with many of your predictions. I am certainly in the pack winning some and losing some. I am not knocking any of your selections. I may disagree with some but everyone has their own feelings and opinions. I have used this site as well as my own opinions to enjoy a better than average past few weeks.

I am a football nut. I have multiple TVs set up in my basement and the football weeks have found me camped in my recliner watching football from noon til midnite and I'm not sure that we are going to know who is really good this year. Every team has had more than a few cakewalks. But we can identify who is really bad. Clemson, Tennessee, Va Tech, Auburn, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Washington, Washington State have absolutely putrid offenses. I'm not sold on any defense in the Big 12.

I do believe that LSU beats Alabama especially if the game is at night. Time is TBA as of today. I've gone against LSU the past few weeks because their QB play has been terrible. I think both games snowballed on them after the QB's turned the ball over. I was impressed with the fact that they posted 30 on the Georgia defense. That leads me to believe that they will beat Bama.

Georgia, Florida is a toss up. Georgia made an attempt out of conference playing AZ State. Florida played Hawaii and Miami. I respect Florida in the fact that they scheduled known powers in FSU and Miami in addition to their SEC schedule. No one could have predicted 5 years ago that Miami and FSU wouldn't be who they were when the schedules were made.

I know that Stafford hasn't impressed me. Moreno put on quite a show this past week. His first strong game this year. Florida and KY was a joke. Game was over in the first 10 minutes so. Florida is lightning quick but they haven't faced a team that has the ability to run and throw. I will take Georgia and the points this week.

I only wish we had more interconference games so we could adequately judge who truly is number one.

SEC/Big 12/Pac 10/ Big Ten showdown. Any team playing a Div 1aa or 2 school should not have that win count and have their BCS ranking adjusted downward for scheduling that school in the fist place.

 

[RetroVK]

I agree that UVA looked better but because GT was failing to execute and UVA was making plays . That was my point it's a very thin margin . I believe you look at the literal events of the game more definitively then I do . At least thats what I take from your weekly recaps . You tend to base the recap on what happened more so then worrying about the line and why you saw value in the line. The little things in a game to me is why outcomes occur . There was just alot of events in this game where if you went from UVA executing to GT defense executing or GT offense executing then the game result looks much different . Might be a tad skewed on what I am saying . UVA made nearly every play they had to. WHich is very impressive considering young QB , road game , tough defense . My point was it the UVA offense getting the credit or GTs defense failures helping UVA to execute .

I absolutely agree with the assessment that UVA was the better team this day . My question is why ?

You said UVA settled for a FG . On the road , young QB , good defense thats exactly what I would expect to happen though . So that was an instince of what supposed to happen occurring IMO . Just like when GT with the option offense at home inside the UVA 10 yd line I expect TDs not FGs . Settling is bad execution when they have such a wide edge . The edge being an option offense with alot of ways to gain yards not being able to get 10 or less in 3 or 4 attempts . Its insane that UVA won the TOP , rushing edge and ran more plays .

Thats all I am saying . Nothing about right or wrong . Just seeing GT failing to do anything of note after the 1st Q up 14-3 on eother side of the ball or in terms of play calling . So I am left thinking GT is severely playing below their talent but also showing it will not change anytime soon UNLESS this serves as a wakeup call.

Actually look at like this and I am not saying by any stretch GT deserved to cover but UVA got away with a hold on the go ahead TD so take that TD away . Then take away the Nesbitt mishandled snap inside the 5 yd which took away a TD probably . You could easily be looking at 21-10 entering the 4th Q . Not saying it should have happened or deserved to happen but emphasising the importance of execution, The winning team always executes better especially at crucial moments and thats basically what decides 80% of games . One owuld expect less miscues at home from GT considering some of the defenses they had played away. At least I would . The 3rd down conversion rate was insane for UVA especially th e4 squeakers they pulled out by inches to a yard....

Just a statement on execution really . Same deal I talked about with WVU last week when White played the offense executed like it was supposed to . So suprising that UVA on the road beat GT because of execution . I breakdown all games the same way and identify the key sequences . If I would have known UVA could out execute @ GT believe me I would have never laid 10-14 pts with them . Thats all I was trying to say .:cheers:

:shake::shake::shake:

 

[RetroVK]

I read your writeups faithfully and agree with many of your predictions. I am certainly in the pack winning some and losing some. I am not knocking any of your selections. I may disagree with some but everyone has their own feelings and opinions. I have used this site as well as my own opinions to enjoy a better than average past few weeks.

I am a football nut. I have multiple TVs set up in my basement and the football weeks have found me camped in my recliner watching football from noon til midnite and I'm not sure that we are going to know who is really good this year. Every team has had more than a few cakewalks. But we can identify who is really bad. Clemson, Tennessee, Va Tech, Auburn, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Washington, Washington State have absolutely putrid offenses. I'm not sold on any defense in the Big 12.

I do believe that LSU beats Alabama especially if the game is at night. Time is TBA as of today. I've gone against LSU the past few weeks because their QB play has been terrible. I think both games snowballed on them after the QB's turned the ball over. I was impressed with the fact that they posted 30 on the Georgia defense. That leads me to believe that they will beat Bama.

Georgia, Florida is a toss up. Georgia made an attempt out of conference playing AZ State. Florida played Hawaii and Miami. I respect Florida in the fact that they scheduled known powers in FSU and Miami in addition to their SEC schedule. No one could have predicted 5 years ago that Miami and FSU wouldn't be who they were when the schedules were made.

I know that Stafford hasn't impressed me. Moreno put on quite a show this past week. His first strong game this year. Florida and KY was a joke. Game was over in the first 10 minutes so. Florida is lightning quick but they haven't faced a team that has the ability to run and throw. I will take Georgia and the points this week.

I only wish we had more interconference games so we could adequately judge who truly is number one.

SEC/Big 12/Pac 10/ Big Ten showdown. Any team playing a Div 1aa or 2 school should not have that win count and have their BCS ranking adjusted downward for scheduling that school in the fist place.

sound like a kindred spirit. love the game as well.

Wish we would also have more interconference games too but we still run into the same problem of determining which interconference games are better ... i think the only solution is a playoff of some sort inwhich every conference winner qualifies. No team has an excuse that way.

florida does play a tough ooc schedule with the miami and fsu games ... even moreso given the rivalry factors.

 

[JPicks]

Don't bet Wyoming. I should have listened to you last weekend and didn't. Now I'll try and convince you otherwise. Ya they'll own the line of scrimmage and should be able to run the ball etc.... They're still going to lose. I think the Aztecs have some fire still as they're a young team, while most of the Cowboys players are seniors and are just playing out the games now. Still this is a coin flip game as it's impossible to cap a team that can't even catch punts anymore. If you honestly have a coin flip game wouldn't you rather have the side that pays +150 on the ML and just take the Aztecs? Bottom line is that regardless if Wyoming was playing a high school team right now they just find ways to lose.

 

[SportsNut]

Think I like Baylor at 3 TDs . OU is just a different monster with Bradford IMO and cant see laying nearly the same vs CU at home as @ Baylor . Think Mizzou showed who they were vs Okie State and @ Texas blasting CU proves what ? CU is down in the dumps after a promising start . They lost some OL players and it snowballed . Even Kansas as well . They are off a terrible game and probably get a discounted price vs KState.

Tough card lot of maybes and few things standing out ....:cheers:

 

[O-State]

I hear you Nut. Kansas, Wake, Oregon State running away from me right now on the lines.

Mizzou I kind of like. Not impressed with Baylor D so we know the run for Mizzou will be operating and they will put big big numbers when they can set up the pass off the run. But Baylor will have success running and take time off clock but I know they can't keep up in the pass game.

Oklahoma---Don't see why ppl are on them this week. They have proven to be very vulnerable vs. the pass and Nebraska will be able to match them almost score for score. Too high a number.

Anybody taking a look at Petrino catching 7 at home vs. Tulsa? Not sure what to think of Tulsa, only impressed with New Mexico win but that's a one dimensional team. They will give up points. I think Arkansas fared decently against UF, Ole Miss dynamic attacks and do feel like they are improving. Tulsa too me seems finesse and a team right now that is having fun loathing in this high scoring playstation 2 dream world playing against high school teams. How disciplined are they. I'd like to see someone punch them in the mouth.

 

[SportsNut]

Looking at Marshall and under then Over Ohio and Ohio ....FWIW tmrw...BOL

 

[RetroVK]

Don't bet Wyoming. I should have listened to you last weekend and didn't. Now I'll try and convince you otherwise. Ya they'll own the line of scrimmage and should be able to run the ball etc.... They're still going to lose. I think the Aztecs have some fire still as they're a young team, while most of the Cowboys players are seniors and are just playing out the games now. Still this is a coin flip game as it's impossible to cap a team that can't even catch punts anymore. If you honestly have a coin flip game wouldn't you rather have the side that pays +150 on the ML and just take the Aztecs? Bottom line is that regardless if Wyoming was playing a high school team right now they just find ways to lose.

Well if the mwc whore says to not bet it .. then i wont.

eliminating wyoming.

 

[RetroVK]

Think I like Baylor at 3 TDs . OU is just a different monster with Bradford IMO and cant see laying nearly the same vs CU at home as @ Baylor . Think Mizzou showed who they were vs Okie State and @ Texas blasting CU proves what ? CU is down in the dumps after a promising start . They lost some OL players and it snowballed . Even Kansas as well . They are off a terrible game and probably get a discounted price vs KState.

Tough card lot of maybes and few things standing out ....:cheers:

i like the card this week... that is to say i really like the plays that i have locked in already.... Can't blame you for liking baylor at home in this spot....i have decided to not get in the way of the monsters but i see where you are coming from

 

[RetroVK]

I hear you Nut. Kansas, Wake, Oregon State running away from me right now on the lines.

Mizzou I kind of like. Not impressed with Baylor D so we know the run for Mizzou will be operating and they will put big big numbers when they can set up the pass off the run. But Baylor will have success running and take time off clock but I know they can't keep up in the pass game.

Oklahoma---Don't see why ppl are on them this week. They have proven to be very vulnerable vs. the pass and Nebraska will be able to match them almost score for score. Too high a number.

Anybody taking a look at Petrino catching 7 at home vs. Tulsa? Not sure what to think of Tulsa, only impressed with New Mexico win but that's a one dimensional team. They will give up points. I think Arkansas fared decently against UF, Ole Miss dynamic attacks and do feel like they are improving. Tulsa too me seems finesse and a team right now that is having fun loathing in this high scoring playstation 2 dream world playing against high school teams. How disciplined are they. I'd like to see someone punch them in the mouth.

unfortunately tulsa is a hard team to gauge. What i think we need to look at is arkansas depth.... which i have not examined yet myself.

Tulsa reminds me of the good hawaii teams the last few years before 2008. They really test depth because of the number of plays per game that they have. Hawaii tested secondary depth and the other WAC schools didn't have the talent to match up with all of the receivers and that is one of the reasons that hawaii did so well in conference. However when they matched up vs higher quality depth , they got exposed sometimes ( not always by any stretch ). I think tulsa is similar in that i dont think conference USA gets enough good defensive players to defend what tulsa likes to do for as many plays as tulsa does it. They never stop. Not sure how it translates to Arkansas who is a bit young but i would examine it before putting money on arkansas. Also have the problem that this might be a game that arkansas could give two shakes about and tulsa will want to prove something. Smith should be effective all day vs tulsa run defense but can arkansas hold up defensively ? Tough game to cap in my opinion and i am staying away.

As far as oklahoma and missouri ... i think you can make a case for betting on both teams and betting against both teams in these spots. i prefer taking the points when the lines are this big but i really just think we are at the point of the season where some teams are starting their quit process and i prefer to bet against those teams instead of making the "value" play vs teams that are still playing hard and still looking for style points.

 

[RetroVK]

Looking at Marshall and under then Over Ohio and Ohio ....FWIW tmrw...BOL

Had a strong lean to houston before the ridiculous line came out. I know you like doing quarter and halftime bets ... one thing i would avoid is houston team total under in the first quarter and first half. There are significant causes to houston lack of being able to produce in first qtrs this year. I would be careful as this should be the most ready and prepared first half for houston so far this year. Iknow you will look at their production in some of those games but there were a lot of mitigating factors in them .. especially afa and csu.

Thought we were going to see more like a minus 4 here on cougars ... which i would have bet.... not at this line on the road though ... and houston is a tad inconsistent.

No opinion on ohio/buffalo .. good luck with that game.

 

[pags11]

kyle,

good to see you won't be playing Wyoming...I agree with jpicks that this team just finds ways not to cover...great thread as usual with you and sportnut going back and forth being the highlight...opcorn:

 

[RetroVK]

kyle,

good to see you won't be playing Wyoming...I agree with jpicks that this team just finds ways not to cover...great thread as usual with you and sportnut going back and forth being the highlight...opcorn:

:36_11_6:

 

[SportsNut]

Had a strong lean to houston before the ridiculous line came out. I know you like doing quarter and halftime bets ... one thing i would avoid is houston team total under in the first quarter and first half. There are significant causes to houston lack of being able to produce in first qtrs this year. I would be careful as this should be the most ready and prepared first half for houston so far this year. Iknow you will look at their production in some of those games but there were a lot of mitigating factors in them .. especially afa and csu.

Thought we were going to see more like a minus 4 here on cougars ... which i would have bet.... not at this line on the road though ... and houston is a tad inconsistent.

No opinion on ohio/buffalo .. good luck with that game.

Thanks VK. I get a tad exotic but dont touch TT for quarters or 1st H or even 2nd H's.

Houston is 0-4 ATS and SU as favs so far this year at halftime. They have trailed vs AFU which understandable with the switch of game location and early start , then I guess you can say the hangover from the aftermath of the hurricane at CSU , now what excuses do they have for getting smoke din the 1st H vs UAB and trailing at SMU ?(serious question not wiseass comment) . We can give them a pass the 1st two times but why the last two? They trailed 20-3 at HOME vs UAB who is worse then Marshall and 21-14 @ SMU but worse also trailed by 12 starting the 4th Q vs Smu and found a way to pull it out late .

SMU had 2nd and 3 at the 7 of Houston with just under 7 to play and settled for 3 points . It was 35-30 and a TD puts them back up 12 with 5 to play . Of cousre SMU kicks it out of bounds at Houston starts at theor own 40 and on 1st down gets 43 yd pass play. Basically it takes a tad more then a minute for them to score butfail to get 2 ptc and still trail. Less then 3 minutes and SMU cant get a 1st down giving the Houston offense 1 more chance vs a terrible defense . To their credit Houston went 85 yds but still SMU pissed that game away the last 6 minutes doing everything wrong ...

Also Houston has traveled every week and at this point does have an effect coupled with the tough games an continuos comebacks ? They have traveled every week oustide of UAB past 7 games this now 4 of 5 away but AF game was moved and previous was at Okie State . While Marshall is playing just its 2nd game in 3 weeks or so and off a loss they should have won. UAB went for a 4th down in the 2nd Q down 14-2 and a busted play got them a 1st down ! Desperate act and lucky outcome. That probably changed the game.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=560 border=0><TBODY class=ysptblcontent1><TR class=ysprow2><TD vAlign=top noWrap>4th-6, Mars35</TD><TD vAlign=top>6:58 </TD><TD vAlign=top>J. Webb fumbled. J. Webb recovered fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD vAlign=top noWrap>4th-6, Mars35</TD><TD vAlign=top>6:58 </TD><TD vAlign=top>J. Webb rushed to the right for 10 yard gain</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The key play in the drive came when UAB went for it on fourth-and-7 at the Marshall 35. Webb bobbled a shotgun snap and was in trouble before escaping and gaining 10 yards.

Which of course scored a TD soon there after . Marshall had 1st goal at the 1 in the 2nd H and fumbled after a penalty then later had 1st and 10 inside the red zone( which then UAB drove 93 yds for their last TD ) and later settled for a FG which they missed . Which happened to be inside of 3 minutes to play so may have been the game winner and they lost by 2 and allowed a 1st Q safety thanks to trying to be tricky on the opening kick and fucking that up leaving them at their own 6 to start ......

Thought the game would be -7 and playing it based on Marshall playing alot better past 2 losses then the score indicates and Houston continually struggling vs inferior teams especially on the road . Outside of beating a total fraud ECU team who went to shit after losing their key LB early think at Tulane what have they done ?

Like Ohio U because most people soured on Ohio U because of the televised loss @ Temple . However Ohio will finding ways to lose close games has barely played at home. While Buffalo has some OL injuries taking 5 sacks vs Army who had 5 sacks all season coming in , Starks is banged up should play but how healthy and they lost their backup RB vs Army . So that could hurt the offense and supposedly their linebackers struggle to cover in the short passing game and just seems to be a perfect opponent for Ohio U at this point......

Comments anyone ??:cheers::shake:

 

[SportsNut]

kyle,

good to see you won't be playing Wyoming...I agree with jpicks that this team just finds ways not to cover...great thread as usual with you and sportnut going back and forth being the highlight...opcorn:

Which BTW if anyone has a debate heated or otherwise take it as a sign of respect . Without sounding high and mighty I enjoy engaging in constructive arguements with people I feel that are worthy adversaries(spelling?). So its definetly a sign of mutual respect by just engaging someone in a discussion from my standpoint .:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

Which BTW if anyone has a debate heated or otherwise take it as a sign of respect . Without sounding high and mighty I enjoy engaging in constructive arguements with people I feel that are worthy adversaries(spelling?). So its definetly a sign of mutual respect by just engaging someone in a discussion from my standpoint .:shake:

Not much of a point to us discussing the games we agree on. Much prefer getting the angles on the games where someone else likes the other side. Makes sure that I am not missing anything.

Your thought process is always welcome in my threads, bud. To some it will sound like we are arguing but we have been at this long enough and shared enough with one another to know we each have reasoned approaches to why we like a particular side. Hope no one else thinks we are arguing because we are really more bouncing thoughts off each other.

 

[TroyStacks]

on 3 of them with you against none

 

[pags11]

sportsnut,

I completely agree, part of what makes Kyle's thread so great, and Kyle for that matter...we don't always see eye to eye on all games, but we share our thoughts...it's the best way to learn and get better as a capper...