2008 cfb -- time to post my week 10 card so far

[RetroVK]

updated through week 9
overall 56-45-2 55.4%
Sides 36-31-2 53.7%
moneyline dogs 1-1
totals 19-13 59.4%


Well , a pretty sad week on a lot of levels. Games I liked Saturday night ( ncstate , notre dame , kent state ) somehow failed to make my card and it is kind of demoralizing.. In any event , hindsight is twenty twenty. I went 5-6 for the week , 1-4 on totals and 4-2 on sides.


Recaps in order of worst capped to best capped.

Georgia/lsu under 48 --LOSER --- first thing iw ant to say is how overrated I have had the SEC this year. The quality of football in that conference doesn’t measure up to what I thought I would see this year as I think I had lsu, georgia , south carolina , ole miss and Tennessee all rated too high. Back to the game. This bet never had a chance and was clearly the wrong side. It started with georgia getting an interception for td on the very first play. Two teams combined for 940 yards and 90 points. Tackling was an optional college course today.

Auburn +3.5 -- LOSER -- went over this game already. Suffice it to say wvu dominated the tigers in this one. 185 more yards than auburn and 9 more first downs. Auburn benefited from several turnovers an onside kick and several good returns but it wasn’t enough to overcome the men vs. boys in the trenches as the big east team planted the SEC team 6 feet under. Ass whooping. This was my favorite bet of the week but I really could not have been more wrong.

Nebraska -10 WINNER -- terribly capped game. I had no business winning this bet at all. There was hardly ever a point where I felt comfortable in this game. Nebraska did have a sizable yardage advantage and a 26-16 first down edge but trailed a vast majority of the game. Got very lucky as Nebraska outscored Baylor 17-0 over the last 16 minutes of the game. Also , had it not been for getting the good number this would have been a loss instead of a win. I’ll take it and considering some of the bad luck I took in the michst/mich game and the cincy/uconn game I won’t feel bad about getting lucky here. Neither the offense or the defense did what I expect out of a DD favorite. Bad bet , good result.

Ncstate/Maryland under 46.5 LOSER -- I suppose this was a toss up bet as I look over the stats. I have not had a chance to go through the play by play and this was one of few games that I did not see a play of. Somewhat disappointing as I really liked the ncstate side and part of the reason I didn’t bet it was because I was already invested in this total. I have a lot of regrets from last week as you will see at the end. I turned what should have been a good week and made it a loser. 42 first downs combined and 671 total yards so by that I will say that it should have gone over and I got what I deserved. But say that without having done extensive research into what actually happened. Yards per play weren’t that great/ shrug. Loser.

Northwestern/Indiana under 46 -- LOSER -- I feel ok about this bet. I got a great number and it took a terrible game from bacher to make this go under. Nw turned it over 5 times including once at the goalline when bacher made a terrible throw the play after he missed a wide open receiver on a play it looked like he could have played pitch and catch for the score or ran in it. Hate him right now. Kickers only went 2 of 4 on fg and just 4 of 5 on extra points. Combined for 40 first downs and 635 yards. So it compares to the ncstate.Maryland game that went over … but this one did not. Bleh. toss up bet I guess but I would make it again tomorrow so don’t feel too bad about it.

Michiganst/Michigan under 46 -- LOSER-- UGH what a bad beat. 7-7 late second quarter and Michigan state is running a dive play to run out the clock for halftime and ringer goes the distance … and then after the ensuing kickoff Michigan gets a couple of pass completions and an interference call and next thing you know it’s 14-14 at halftime instead. Really feel unfortunate to lose this bet as anyone who watched this game knows that the under was the side. I did benefit from some bad fg kicking from michst but the turnovers were deadly in this game and every single score was a td … needed a few fgs instead. Love this bet it just didn’t work out this time …

Virginia +11.5 -- WINNER -- Really a pretty decently capped game and Virginia left a lot of opportunites on the football field the first half that I thought would come back to haunt them. But in the end they won outright as a dd dog and that makes me feel good about the bet. 147 more yards of offense and 6 more first downs .. Who am I kidding. This was a pretty good bet as it turned out today and probably the game I was most uneasy about going in. Virginia was able to pass and run and their balance was more than even I expected. Should have beaten GT by more but their silly mistakes almost cost them the game until GT made one of their own going in for a score and fumbling inside the Virginia ten yard line.

Cincy +1 LOSER -- Extreemly frustrating game to watch as Cincy had all the chances to put uconn away and refused to do it. Terrible play calling , some untimely penalties , poor execution , dropped passes , failed fourth down conversions and a -6 turnover margin took what should have been a win going away and made it a loss going away. Will be the most deceiving score and box score of the weekend so if you missed the game you can either take my word for it or go through the play-by-play as it will show you what happened here. Would make this bet immediately again if given the opportunity and I would really be mad about this game if it were not for the lucky win I got with Nebraska. The bearcats have way better special teams than uconn so to lose that part of the game decisively was a fluke for sure. No doubt in my mind cincy wins that area atleast 9 out of 10 times vs. uconn but today was the other time. Just not much else I can say … game was there the entire day for cincy to win and they didn’t. Not often will you see me say that I feel unlucky to lose a +1 dog when the final score shows they lost by 24 but that is the case with this one. Uconn has a horseshoe up their ass for several years running. Hardest game to watch this year for me I think. Well one of anyway .. fresh on the mind so it seems like it right now. Soooo frustrating as a handicapper.

Pennst/tosu under 46 WINNER -- had to sweat the possibility of overtime at the end but the game had just one td in it and just one goal to go scenario in it. So feel good about that. Neither team reached 20 first downs or 300 yards of offense. Enough said there.

Missouri -19 WINNER -- feel good about this game because I considered the idea of the “unintended middle” when the game hit -25.… but kept my value instead. Game was 34-0 by halftime and Colorado was held to under 200 yards and just 14 first downs. Never in doubt.

Oregon -4 WINNER -- Don’t know if I have told you guys but Arizona state sucks donkey balls dipped in sour milk. They are a abd football team. Throw out your preseason thoughts about these guys. BAD FOOTBALL TEAM. Oregon won 54-20 and outgained asu by roughly 200 yards. That includes 76 yards that asu got on garbage time drive at end of game to score a td with under a minute to go. Ass whooping.

Regrets -- the biggest two are kent state and ncstate. i liked kent state before the mac fix came in and i liked ncstate .. one of the few games i had circled saturday night / sunday morning .. and yet neither made my card as i was slow on the draw with kent and didnt bet despite the fact that a mac game moved that much and we all know what that means. Then i was stuck in the ncstate game because i played the total first and didnt want too much committed to that game. Also am a bit disgraced that notre dame didnt make my card this week, Feel like i went out of my way to look past fundamentals in that game to find an excuse not to play a double digit road favorite even though on paper they should have won by roughly what they did win by. i am happy about laying off of sjsu , tulane and kansas and some other leans that i had last week though. on to this week.

Locked in :

TAMU -2
Oregon st -12
Clemson +4.5
West by god Virginia -3
wake forest -6.5 -120
iowa +2 ( hahaha illinois favored haha )
TCU -13.5
Washingtonst/stanford UNDER 54
W Va /uconn over 44
Temple/navy over 44
california/oregon under 64 1/2
louisville -13 <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________

Strong leans :
the ville -14 added oct 30
temple +7.5 eliminated october 28
kent +7.5 eliminated october 28
florida -5.5 eliminated october 28
ole miss -5.5 eliminated october 28

Talk me off leans :

houston -8 insta elimination
TCU -13 aded oct 30
oklahoma st -31 eliminated october 27
lsu -25.5 eliminated october 27
wyoming -3 eliminated october 27
fsu -2 eliminated october 28
miami fl -1 eliminated oct 28
oregon +3 eliminated october 28
pitt +5.5 ( stull needed ) eliminated october 28
wisconsin +4

 

[O-State]

Kyle, this is why I hate totals. There is simply more variance to go wrong.

1.)You are dealing with points, which are not always representative of how both teams move the ball. 3rd down conversions, turnovers, weird shit that stops drives.
2.)You are dealing with two teams, not one side
3.) You are dealing with special teams, clock, fluke plays,
5.) Most imporantly, you are dealing with the "flow" of the game. Two great defensive teams can get into a shootout if a somehow they score early and the ball gets kicking. Likewise so many times I have seen great offensive teams in a stalemate just waiting for the other to make a move and that one series to kickstart a flurry.

----The SEC is Overrated big time IMO. Contrary to popular belief, I think this year the SEC schedule is cake for title contendars like Bama and Florida before the SEC championship. Texas has mount everest to climb and Penn State @ Ohio State, @ Iowa, is as close as Bama playing @Georgia and @LSU

Florida, Georgia, and Alabama are the truth.
Ole Miss, LSU, South Carolina solid but ??? Middle of pack in most conferences IMO
Tenny, Auburn, Kentucky, Vandy, Miss State, Arkansas, bottom of most conferences.
Tenny and Auburn down big time is what makes this conference worse.

----It's sad but the Big Twelve is ions ahead of everyone else. As a whole in CFB this year a lot of "bad" or "decent" conferences this year. Can't remember so much conference mediocrity.

 

[RetroVK]

Kyle, this is why I hate totals. There is simply more variance to go wrong.

1.)You are dealing with points, which are not representative of how both teams move the ball. 3rd down conversions, turnovers, weird shit that stops drives.
2.)You are dealing with two teams, not one side
3.) You are dealing with special teams, clock, fluke plays,
5.) Most imporantly, you are dealing with the "flow" of the game. Two great defensive teams can get into a shootout if a somehow they score early and the ball gets kicking. Likewise so many times I have seen great offensive teams in a stalemate just waiting for the other to make a move and that one series to kickstart a flurry.

----The SEC is Overrated big time IMO. Contrary to popular belief, I think this year the SEC schedule is cake for title contendars like Bama and Florida before the SEC championship. Texas has mount everest to climb and Penn State @ Ohio State, @ Iowa, is as close as Bama playing @Georgia and @LSU

Florida, Georgia, and Alabama are the truth.
Ole Miss, LSU, South Carolina solid but ??? Middle of pack in most conferences IMO
Tenny, Auburn, Kentucky, Vandy, Miss State, Arkansas, bottom of most conferences.
Tenny and Auburn down big time is what makes this conference worse.

----It's sad but the Big Twelve is ions ahead of everyone else. As a whole in CFB this year a lot of "bad" or "decent" conferences this year. Can't remember so much conference mediocrity.

Totals can be tough but i like them just the same. Can get some nice mistakes from the books on those. Have to take the bad with the good. What you refer to as flow , i refer to as pace and it is one of my favorite angles with totals betting. i think pace can be predicted for the most part. Sometimes , like with georgia at lsu today .. i am completely wrong about pace/flow.

Thats what hurt so badly with the michst/mich game. The flow was perfect and then BAM a dive play turns into basically 14 points against me. Was the equivalent of betting a side and having the other team get a 100 yard interception return for a score.

I agree with your assessment of the SEC. I still think it is the second best conference , but i gave them WAY too much credit the first two months of the year.

 

[O-State]

Exactly. Each game has it's own pace. Often each quarter has it's own pace. Sometimes each possession, it changes like the breeze. Momentum changes. Shit happens. You just don't know what is going to happen. A guy misses a tackle he takes it the distance and a well handicapped total is gone to a new pace. That's why for me personally I just have not fared well with totals. NW/Purdue yeah you take that and I might choose my spots but I have concluded variability is high.

If I choose a side and handicapp that team A win will win due to certain reasons such as one being it's ability to carve up the opposing secondary. Now, if that doesn't happen, I am still in the ball game and can win with that team on a side.

If I choose an over in a total. If one team doesn't hold up it's end of the bargain often times it's a losing proposition. You have two teams here that need to do a certain amount of scoring. In my mind it's like betting two sides. A team over for each. So it's twice as hard. You are now reallying on sooo many other factors. If the pace changes in a side, you can still win. If a pace of game changes here, your screwed. You are counting on 4 sides of the ball, 2 for each team. And now we are including point total. Lot's of externalities in effect here.

 

[Marlo]

Kyle

Am I wrong saying the national Champ comes out of the Big 12 this year?

 

[RetroVK]

Kyle

Am I wrong saying the national Champ comes out of the Big 12 this year?

Not wrong at all. Four and maybe five legitimate top 15 teams. We know missouri , okie st , texas and oklahoma are worthy. The question now is texas tech ? me no think so but some would argue otherwise.


The problem is if i made my lines on a neutral field right now , i think i make florida a favorite over every team in the big12 , even if small.

my top 4 by power rating

florida
texas
oklahoma
usc


Obviously with usc scheduling it would be an absolute joke if they made the title game but they are still solid.

the qestion becomes if missouri beats texas in the big12 title game .... how does missouri go with 2 losses ?? so there is a way that the big12 does not represent. I don't think you can punish texas for playing in the big122 title game by giving oklahoma a chance at bcs title when they dont even go to their conference title game ... so then we are looking at the SEC winner ( 1 loss ) , usc and pennstate as the probables.

I think there is a good chance that penn state loses at iowa so that would clear up and i would take a two loss big12 team over usc this year but there is no way that will happen either.

gonna be fun.

just hope they dont reward usc for playing in a weak conference. if tcu were to run the table and finish with 1 loss at oklahoma ... tell me why usc deserves to go to bcs title game over tcu. TCU will have played in a tougher conference , a tougher schedule and had a higher quality loss.

pac10 is so bad.

 

[horses]

This is one of the worst Pac10's I think I've ever seen...USC should not make the title game as long as there are other one loss teams from b12 and sec; psu is in, right (as long as texas or 'bama lose, which one will)?

 

[pags11]

looking forward to seeing the rest of the card...

 

[cubsker]

you shouldn't be too upset about your capping on the Husker game. The refs gave Baylor a bunch of calls that helped them get the lead. Baylor also pretty much cheats on every play. They keep a ton of guys on the field in a big huddle near the sideline and then at the last second run off a bunch of guys. They also got a big play where I'm pretty sure there was no way everyone was set at the line of scrimmage for a whole second. Nebraska was clearly a better team and was the right side in my opinion.

 

[RetroVK]

This is one of the worst Pac10's I think I've ever seen...USC should not make the title game as long as there are other one loss teams from b12 and sec; psu is in, right (as long as texas or 'bama lose, which one will)?

yup. agree.

can i get your thoughts on sdsu at wyoming, horses ?

 

[RetroVK]

looking forward to seeing the rest of the card...

nice talking football with you today.

 

[RetroVK]

you shouldn't be too upset about your capping on the Husker game. The refs gave Baylor a bunch of calls that helped them get the lead. Baylor also pretty much cheats on every play. They keep a ton of guys on the field in a big huddle near the sideline and then at the last second run off a bunch of guys. They also got a big play where I'm pretty sure there was no way everyone was set at the line of scrimmage for a whole second. Nebraska was clearly a better team and was the right side in my opinion.

Wasn't the worst bet i made all day but not one i would be in a rush to play again either.

i did think the personal foul that led to baylors td at end of first half was skeptical. Also had the fumble at the goalline ( back to back ouch ) which hurt. Got the strange punt from baylor ... that i still dont understand too but glad they did it.

 

[RetroVK]

locked in
tamu -2
clemson +4.5
wake -6.5 -120
oregon st -12
iowa +2
wvu -3

a little chalky.... not many dogs i like this week really. so could be a otugh week for me.

 

[RetroVK]

Have to run across town but will be available late night for football discussion.

talk to ya later tonight guys

 

[horses]

VK,

Thought the Aztecs played about as well as they good on Sat nite vs CSU; they made some mistakes but they played hard and stayed competitive throughout. That being said...take a look at the Wyoming/TCU game...sure TCU poured it on, but they gave up significant rushing yards (for them) to a Wyoming team, that if, nothing else knows how to be physical esp with a couple of decent backs. They should be able run the ball reasonably well against the Aztecs which bodes well in the altitude esp with sdsu's depleted DL. On the other side, while the Aztecs had solid rushing output last week vs CSU in an inspired effort amid a lot speculation about Longs job (until Schemmel, AD, announced he was good thru 09), I don't expect it on the road against a pretty good Wyoming DL.

I've seen both teams play plenty this year and I would have to say, on average, Wyoming is better. Both teams are very capable of stinking it up completely; both are winless in conference and both will consider this their last and best chance for a win...think Wyoming is better situated here being at home and better on both lines laying the short price. Not sure it'll end up on my card since it warrants betting Wyoming...as a favorite no less.

 

[RetroVK]

VK,

Thought the Aztecs played about as well as they good on Sat nite vs CSU; they made some mistakes but they played hard and stayed competitive throughout. That being said...take a look at the Wyoming/TCU game...sure TCU poured it on, but they gave up significant rushing yards (for them) to a Wyoming team, that if, nothing else knows how to be physical esp with a couple of decent backs. They should be able run the ball reasonably well against the Aztecs which bodes well in the altitude esp with sdsu's depleted DL. On the other side, while the Aztecs had solid rushing output last week vs CSU in an inspired effort amid a lot speculation about Longs job (until Schemmel, AD, announced he was good thru 09), I don't expect it on the road against a pretty good Wyoming DL.

I've seen both teams play plenty this year and I would have to say, on average, Wyoming is better. Both teams are very capable of stinking it up completely; both are winless in conference and both will consider this their last and best chance for a win...think Wyoming is better situated here being at home and better on both lines laying the short price. Not sure it'll end up on my card since it warrants betting Wyoming...as a favorite no less.

heh .. exactly as i see it and the team name "wyoming" is keeping me off so far.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Iowa looking sexy and I want to jump all over that Oregon St line.. gl this week

 

[Blue_Chip]

You want to be talked off of LSU -25.5? They are looking ahead to Bama. Tulane just got embarrassed by Rice. Tulane tries to play LSU tough since this used to be an in-state rivalry 30 years ago. Don't lay that many points with a team trying to solve problems at QB and DB.

 

[O-State]

sexy card I'm definately on alot of these unlike last week

The Ville----sandwhich for Ville after USF before Pitt and Cuse had another bye but Ville could not match up better defensively. That fact and the fact the line is short makes this very attractive. Just have to be sure Ville gets their points, I think they fare better than Pitt did here.

-----The play I like the least is Iowa actually.

 

[boredlife]

I agree ...total sandwich game for the Ville.

Really like Oregon St & Iowa.

Also jumped on Gators w/ revenge.

Interesting about your power ranks...I have :

Florida 0
USC -1
Texas -3
Penn St -5
OU -6

 

[bjorks]

You're right about ASU Kyle. They've completely quit. I usually don't call guys out, but Rudy Carpenter has quit and pooped the bed. ASU will be lucky to win 4 games.

The game I'm waiting for is the U of A game where the line will be like 17 and I'll hit the absolute piss out of U of Yag.

 

[RetroVK]

Sorry but you guys are completely misevaluating the Ville spot. completely.

look again....... of the three games this might actually be the circled one.

The lsu game on the other hand , or the bama game or the okie state game ... those are sandwiches.

The VILLE DOES NOT COUNT AS A SANDWICH

 

[RetroVK]

You're right about ASU Kyle. They've completely quit. I usually don't call guys out, but Rudy Carpenter has quit and pooped the bed. ASU will be lucky to win 4 games.

The game I'm waiting for is the U of A game where the line will be like 17 and I'll hit the absolute piss out of U of Yag.

:smiley_acbe:


When bjorks says it ... then i know i am on track. Team is playign heartless right now and go into a den of wolves in corvalis with Riley off of a bye week, seeking revenge from a game that they outplayed asu in arizona last year but let slip away ...

ASU is a team i look to bet against the rest of the year as long as oddsmakers keep putting out these bad lines and people keep believing their preseason opinions on the sun devils.

Two teams going opposite directions

 

[RetroVK]

Iowa looking sexy and I want to jump all over that Oregon St line.. gl this week

no reason to not like iowa ... they match up similarly as every team that has handed it to illinois so far.

Illinois has showed me nothing. Iowa lines my pockets every week.

i was playing this unless the line was way out of whack. Bye week to prepare and Greene gets extra rest. Can't run on iowa and can't stop iowa from running .... so only way to lose is for juice to beat me ... i have gotten rich waiting for him to do that to me in these types of games.

Point me to the best illinois win this year.


oregon state is my favorite play of the week. Hard to believe that they opened that game under 10 points. sick mistake.

 

[RetroVK]

You want to be talked off of LSU -25.5? They are looking ahead to Bama. Tulane just got embarrassed by Rice. Tulane tries to play LSU tough since this used to be an in-state rivalry 30 years ago. Don't lay that many points with a team trying to solve problems at QB and DB.

agreed that it is a sandwich spot. Not sure all is right in tulane football program right now though. how many to rice ???? Army ??????

you know i dont lay numbers this big so it is almost a certainty that it doesnt make my card but i am considering it.

 

[RetroVK]

sexy card I'm definately on alot of these unlike last week

The Ville----sandwhich for Ville after USF before Pitt and Cuse had another bye but Ville could not match up better defensively. That fact and the fact the line is short makes this very attractive. Just have to be sure Ville gets their points, I think they fare better than Pitt did here.

-----The play I like the least is Iowa actually.

This ville game doesn't qualify as a sandwich game. It qualifies as a circle , super duper major revenge game from the coaches to the players to the school.

We have a situation here where ville is set up to stop what syracuse likes to do and where syracuse cannot stop what the ville likes to do.


i like ville to pay syracuse back for humiliating defeat last year in a game that had to hurt kragthorpe badly

Almost assuredly betting the ville in some capacity

 

[RetroVK]

I agree ...total sandwich game for the Ville.

Really like Oregon St & Iowa.

Also jumped on Gators w/ revenge.

Interesting about your power ranks...I have :

Florida 0
USC -1
Texas -3
Penn St -5
OU -6

yeah our power ratings arent too far off.

I like the revenge angle here and i also like that they opened the line where they did ... it means they want people to bet georgia. florida starting to play their best ball and georgia is both banged up and have to face a healthy tebow this time around. I played georgia last year in this one but am considering florida this time around.

not sure there arent some better spots for my money though ... some teams have quit or are on the verge and just need a push ..... i think i would rather play against the heartless teams more than a richt coached club.

I strongly believe that florida wins though.... so then it comes down to the number..... contemplating.

 

[bjorks]

Kyle I'm leaning Tulane. This is a mini rivalry game a lot of people don't know about. Tulane knows it chances of winning SU aren't good, but they'll do anything possible to cover, win SU maybe, hurt LSU players, etc. There's a lot hatred between the schools and coaches. You've got LSU maybe looking ahead (which I don't buy, because they understand this game), but Tulane has this circled. LSU coming off a loss will look to pile it on (again), but I'm not sure the offense can when you've got the opposing D who plans for this game the entire year.

 

[O-State]

Kyle you are completely correct I forgot about that what like 30 something dog win???

I think though the same applies to Illinois vs. Iowa though if you recall that game last year in Iowa City.

I certainly understand where you are going with Iowa but if Illinois shows up like they did vs. Penn State, Missouri, and Indiana I think they win. They did not show up vs. Wisconsin. Very emotional unstable team and they will be ready for this one. Juice if he shows up will put yards up on that Iowa defense.

Not saying you are but I see too many ppl that overeact with teams that win them money and crucify teams that don't.

 

[RetroVK]

Kyle you are completely correct I forgot about that what like 30 something dog win???

I think though the same applies to Illinois vs. Iowa though if you recall that game last year in Iowa City.

I certainly understand where you are going with Iowa but if Illinois shows up like they did vs. Penn State, Missouri, and Indiana I think they win. They did not show up vs. Wisconsin. Very emotional unstable team and they will be ready for this one. Juice if he shows up will put yards up on that Iowa defense.

Not saying you are but I see too many ppl that overeact with teams that win them money and crucify teams that don't.

I love the iowa team from the fundamentals of handicapping standpoint. They ahve almost every quality that you look for in a team to back with money.

1. they are under the radar and undervalued
2. they run the ball extremely well ( greene will end the year with best rb stats in the conference .. better than beanie , better than ringer )
3. they stop the run extremely well.
4. They control both sides of the line of scrimmage. Both the offensive and defensive lines are strong
5. They are coached well. ( gameday coaching not so much but preparation wise they are coached well )
6. they are motivated
7. they are playing good football
8. the spot/situation is good
9. they match up well vs opponent.
10. they are playing vs an overvalued team

to name a few. i love iowa because they are one sound football team. i have made my case for this team week after week after week and they consistently perform as i expect. Coming off the bye is perfect for this particular conference game as well.

wrong team favored , like a lot of iowa games.

last year , iowa outgained them and out first downed them when iowa was a shell of what they are this year and illinois is a shell of what they were last year.....

Big difference from the revenge spot for the ville who had 21 more first downs than syracuse in defeat ... no you saw that right ... 21 MORE first downs ... 37-16.

 

[O-State]

I love the iowa team from the fundamentals of handicapping standpoint. They ahve almost every quality that you look for in a team to back with money.

1. they are under the radar and undervalued
2. they run the ball extremely well ( greene will end the year with best rb stats in the conference .. better than beanie , better than ringer )
3. they stop the run extremely well.
4. They control both sides of the line of scrimmage. Both the offensive and defensive lines are strong
5. They are coached well. ( gameday coaching not so much but preparation wise they are coached well )
6. they are motivated
7. they are playing good football
8. the spot/situation is good
9. they match up well vs opponent.
10. they are playing vs an overvalued team

to name a few. i love iowa because they are one sound football team. i have made my case for this team week after week after week and they consistently perform as i expect. Coming off the bye is perfect for this particular conference game as well.

wrong team favored , like a lot of iowa games.

last year , iowa outgained them and out first downed them when iowa was a shell of what they are this year and illinois is a shell of what they were last year.....

Big difference from the revenge spot for the ville who had 21 more first downs than syracuse in defeat ... no you saw that right ... 21 MORE first downs ... 37-16.

:shake:

Good Luck with it bro I'm staying away. Love the card.

 

[Dmoney416]

BOL this week VK.

Really disagree with Louisville though, wouldn't be surprised to see Syracuse beat them again. Revenge is not enough of a factor for me here.

 

[RetroVK]

Kyle I'm leaning Tulane. This is a mini rivalry game a lot of people don't know about. Tulane knows it chances of winning SU aren't good, but they'll do anything possible to cover, win SU maybe, hurt LSU players, etc. There's a lot hatred between the schools and coaches. You've got LSU maybe looking ahead (which I don't buy, because they understand this game), but Tulane has this circled. LSU coming off a loss will look to pile it on (again), but I'm not sure the offense can when you've got the opposing D who plans for this game the entire year.

I think tulane running back Anderson ( best offensive player on team ) separated or dislocated his shoulder or something in the rice game ... i also think they started to play a freshman at qb ... at lsu at night would not be a good place to be playinga a freshman. He looked good vs rice so they might go that way but sean glennon would look good at qb vs rice.

might want to make sure the frosh isn't starting before playing tulane.

 

[RetroVK]

BOL this week VK.

Really disagree with Louisville though, wouldn't be surprised to see Syracuse beat them again. Revenge is not enough of a factor for me here.

care to elaborate ??? i need a talking off .... i seem to be the only one who loves it.

 

[Dmoney416]

care to elaborate ??? i need a talking off .... i seem to be the only one who loves it.

I'll keep it short for now since I need sleep. Will elaborate more tomorrow.

Well, first off, the obvious. Strength of sched to this point:

Louisville: Kentucky, Tenn. Tech, MTSU, Kansas St., @Memphis, USF, Uconn.

Syracuse: @Northwestern, Akron, Penn St., Northeastern, Pitt, West Va., USF.

Syrcause has faced a tougher schedule overall, particularly in conference where they have faced (arguably) the conference's three best teams.

Second, big special teams advantage for Syracuse. Lousiville's P/K are pretty average while Rob Long and Patrick Shadle make up one of the better tandems in I-A football.

Third, you seem to imply that this is going to be weakness vs. strength on both sides in favor of Louisville. Which, basically means (if im interpreting correctly) that Louisville will stop Syracuse's run and Louisville will run all over Syracuse.

Now, I can't really argue that Anderson and Bolen will get theirs against the Cuse front seven.

The run defense looks good for the Ville on the surface: Louisville is 7th in the nation allowing 2.7 ypc and 5th in ypg at 75.1. However, these stats seem overblown given who they have played.

Kentucky - 89th in rushing
Tenn Tech
MTSU - 116th in rushing
Kansas St. - 70th in rushing
Memphis - 28th in rushing (30 carries for 130 yards, main ball-carrier had 80 yards on 16 carries)(Plus, Hall threw 55 times since they were having success through the air)
UConn - 17th in rushing (Brown had 190 on 33 carries)
USF - 40th in rushing

So, I think much of this has come against teams that either don't run or lack an effective back. The teams that run decently have done decently against them. The only exception to this is USF last week, where they did a very good job (though stats were a bit skewed by sacks/lack of running due to air success).

Conversely, I think that Syracuse porous run stats are a bit skewed as well considering they have played Northwestern, Pittsburgh, WVU, and Penn St.

I also think that Dantley can take adavantage (at least a little bit) of Louisville pass D as Dantley has done a good job not making mistakes this season.

I'm not high on Cantwell either and this will only be Louisville's 2nd roadie of the year with the other coming against Memphis (and we saw how that turned out).

Hopefully I'll have more tomorrow.

 

[Dmoney416]

Here's something interesting as well - Louisville opponents have had an absurd amount of penalties called against them at home:

Kentucky: 9 penalties for 67 yards
Tenn. Tech: 10 for 82
Kansas St.: 7 for 55
UConn: 6 for 40
MTSU: 10 for 82
USF: 14 for 109

Total: 56 penalties for 440 yards (average of 9.33 per game for 73.33 yards)

Not sure if they will get this kind of "help" on the road.

 

[RetroVK]

I'll keep it short for now since I need sleep. Will elaborate more tomorrow.

Well, first off, the obvious. Strength of sched to this point:

Louisville: Kentucky, Tenn. Tech, MTSU, Kansas St., @Memphis, USF, Uconn.

Syracuse: @Northwestern, Akron, Penn St., Northeastern, Pitt, West Va., USF.

Syrcause has faced a tougher schedule overall, particularly in conference where they have faced (arguably) the conference's three best teams.

Second, big special teams advantage for Syracuse. Lousiville's P/K are pretty average while Rob Long and Patrick Shadle make up one of the better tandems in I-A football.

Third, you seem to imply that this is going to be weakness vs. strength on both sides in favor of Louisville. Which, basically means (if im interpreting correctly) that Louisville will stop Syracuse's run and Louisville will run all over Syracuse.

Now, I can't really argue that Anderson and Bolen will get theirs against the Cuse front seven.

The run defense looks good for the Ville on the surface: Louisville is 7th in the nation allowing 2.7 ypc and 5th in ypg at 75.1. However, these stats seem overblown given who they have played.

Kentucky - 89th in rushing
Tenn Tech
MTSU - 116th in rushing
Kansas St. - 70th in rushing
Memphis - 28th in rushing (30 carries for 130 yards, main ball-carrier had 80 yards on 16 carries)(Plus, Hall threw 55 times since they were having success through the air)
UConn - 17th in rushing (Brown had 190 on 33 carries)
USF - 40th in rushing

So, I think much of this has come against teams that either don't run or lack an effective back. The teams that run decently have done decently against them. The only exception to this is USF last week, where they did a very good job (though stats were a bit skewed by sacks/lack of running due to air success).

Conversely, I think that Syracuse porous run stats are a bit skewed as well considering they have played Northwestern, Pittsburgh, WVU, and Penn St.

I also think that Dantley can take adavantage (at least a little bit) of Louisville pass D as Dantley has done a good job not making mistakes this season.

I'm not high on Cantwell either and this will only be Louisville's 2nd roadie of the year with the other coming against Memphis (and we saw how that turned out).

Hopefully I'll have more tomorrow.

thanks bud.

look forward to tomorrow. i think we are in some disagreement on this game but that is gonna happen sometimes. will try to reply to some of your points tonight and you can check it out when you get a chance tomorrow.

 

[SportsNut]

Cuse playing some good football seem to fall apart after halftime.

 

[Dmoney416]

Cuse playing some good football seem to fall apart after halftime.

This is the shortest post you have ever made my friend.

I agree - we'll see if they can play a more complete game on their home turf.

 

[RetroVK]

I'll keep it short for now since I need sleep. Will elaborate more tomorrow.

Well, first off, the obvious. Strength of sched to this point:

Louisville: Kentucky, Tenn. Tech, MTSU, Kansas St., @Memphis, USF, Uconn.

Syracuse: @Northwestern, Akron, Penn St., Northeastern, Pitt, West Va., USF.

Syrcause has faced a tougher schedule overall, particularly in conference where they have faced (arguably) the conference's three best teams.

ok i agree with you here. Syracuse has played a much tougher schedule than louisville to date , especially when you consider that the ville has been at home for almost every game and played like dog poop in their road game at memphis.


Second, big special teams advantage for Syracuse. Lousiville's P/K are pretty average while Rob Long and Patrick Shadle make up one of the better tandems in I-A football.

I agree somewhat here as well. louisville kicking game is not a prize but i think it is mitigated by a few important factors ... 1. they will be punting less 2. what they lose in the punter they gain back in the return game in my opinion.


Third, you seem to imply that this is going to be weakness vs. strength on both sides in favor of Louisville. Which, basically means (if im interpreting correctly) that Louisville will stop Syracuse's run and Louisville will run all over Syracuse.

Now, I can't really argue that Anderson and Bolen will get theirs against the Cuse front seven.

The run defense looks good for the Ville on the surface: Louisville is 7th in the nation allowing 2.7 ypc and 5th in ypg at 75.1. However, these stats seem overblown given who they have played.

Kentucky - 89th in rushing
Tenn Tech
MTSU - 116th in rushing
Kansas St. - 70th in rushing
Memphis - 28th in rushing (30 carries for 130 yards, main ball-carrier had 80 yards on 16 carries)(Plus, Hall threw 55 times since they were having success through the air)
UConn - 17th in rushing (Brown had 190 on 33 carries)
USF - 40th in rushing

So, I think much of this has come against teams that either don't run or lack an effective back. The teams that run decently have done decently against them. The only exception to this is USF last week, where they did a very good job (though stats were a bit skewed by sacks/lack of running due to air success).

This is exactly what i am implying. Yes cuse has played some tough rush offenses of which louisville is pretty comparable to at this point. And lets not forget that the wvu game was with no pat white.

Louisville is averaging 196 yards a game at 4.84 yards per carry. Syracuse is giving up 212 yards and 5.34 yards per carry.

What is worrisome for the cuse is that they make other teams better at running.

Usf averages 171 at 4.19 a carry but had 239 yards at 5.2 a carry vs. cuse
Wvu averages 231 at 6.02 a carry but had 216 at 6.2 a carry at the cuse ( no pat white )
Pitt averages 163 yards at 4.22 a carry but had 241 yards at 5.2 a carry vs. cuse

Pennst and akron also had success against cuse rush defense..... just dont like it when a defense consistently allows the opposing team to overachieve running the ball.

Terrible match up for Syracuse and cantwell is more than capable of mixing in the pass to move the ball. Not a huge fan of his windup or his mobility or his decision making at times but i also think i am harder on him because i expected him to be better.


As far as the level of competition regarding the running attacks , i think syracuse isnt much better than most of those teams at running the ball either. a tad for sure but not much. And other teams had a better pass offense from which to work from. cuse is like 108th or thereabouts in pass offense which makes me think English loads up to stop the run and i dont think cuse has the horses to keep up through the air.

Conversely, I think that Syracuse porous run stats are a bit skewed as well considering they have played Northwestern, Pittsburgh, WVU, and Penn St.

I also think that Dantley can take adavantage (at least a little bit) of Louisville pass D as Dantley has done a good job not making mistakes this season.

Define "a little bit of success " and we might agree. i just dont think they rate to keep up at all.


I'm not high on Cantwell either and this will only be Louisville's 2nd roadie of the year with the other coming against Memphis (and we saw how that turned out).

definite concerns which are two of the reasons i havent played yet.

Hopefully I'll have more tomorrow.

talk to you tomorrow bud.

want to say that i pointed to a lot of these same types of stats last time ville was on the road and they got dominated by memphis. ..... so i realize we are looking at a team that has a strong dichotomy in performance depending on whether they are at home or on the road.

Also want to point out however that where i think usf , wvu and pennst might have a hard time getting up for syracuse .... i dont think the ville will .... hell wvu was looking so far past them they rested pat white and his cobwebs.

 

[SportsNut]

Sleepy as well . Probably look at Cuse 1st H when it comes out. Orangeman always hang with them think 3 straight ATS in the series . Ville didnt look that good vs memphis and this is a team that has been hard to value all season IMO . Patterson always played well vs them should bode well for Dantley .

 

[SportsNut]

Another thing is cant get passed how weak Ville has been lined most of the year . MTSU less then 2 TD favs , Home Dog to Kentucky and Kansas State.

 

[RetroVK]

hmmmmmm on an island with this one ..........

had a football conference call today and i was only one in there that liked this too.......

 

[RetroVK]

Another thing is cant get passed how weak Ville has been lined most of the year . MTSU less then 2 TD favs , Home Dog to Kentucky and Kansas State.

that was the healthy kentucky and the pre "we all know now that you are a fraud " version of kansas state. i mean people see kstate winning by 39 or more every game going into that one and cant forget about 27-2 kentucky win in week 1 and that is how that line gets there.

Do you make cuse a favorite to mtsu on a neutral ?

 

[SportsNut]

hmmmmmm on an island with this one ..........

had a football conference call today and i was only one in there that liked this too.......

Cuse is two different teams past 3 games IMO. While Ville has pretty much been the same deal all year . It looked like they woke up vs Kansas State but they really havemt matched that effeciency again and we know how bad KState is now on defense. The Ville FG kicking is an issue as mentioned by D$.

Pitt scored the last 18 pts in a 10 pt win and USF won the 2nd H 24-0 to win by 32. Just not sure Lville can be consistent enough to cover 2 TDs on the road . Memphis and Cuse wouldnt rate that far apart in my book

 

[RetroVK]

Cuse is two different teams past 3 games IMO. While Ville has pretty much been the same deal all year . It looked like they woke up vs Kansas State but they really havemt matched that effeciency again and we know how bad KState is now on defense. The Ville FG kicking is an issue as mentioned by D$.

Pitt scored the last 18 pts in a 10 pt win and USF won the 2nd H 24-0 to win by 32. Just not sure Lville can be consistent enough to cover 2 TDs on the road . Memphis and Cuse wouldnt rate that far apart in my book

yeah its not that i think memphis and cuse are that far apart .. i just think they present two entirely different matchups..... the fg kciking yuo guys are talkinga bout is a DEFINITE problem for louisville.

Don't you think it is a lot easier for usf or pitt to come out flat vs syracuse than the cardinals in this spot ?? this is a major revenge game .. not a small revenge game ........ in other words , i dont really think that the same situation applies for cuse to jump out early like they did vs two sleepwalking teams and a pat whiteless mountaineeer squad.

 

[RetroVK]

^^^ wow lots of typos i don't want to fix

 

[SportsNut]

that was the healthy kentucky and the pre "we all know now that you are a fraud " version of kansas state. i mean people see kstate winning by 39 or more every game going into that one and cant forget about 27-2 kentucky win in week 1 and that is how that line gets there.

Do you make cuse a favorite to mtsu on a neutral ?

True . I had Kentucky in the opener and Ville as the home dog though so I cant feel that I was fooled either time. Think the only Ville game I had wrong is Uconn. My point is those lines were off but its like they are asking me to believe Louisville is 3 TDs better since that part of the season.

Would rate Cuse and Tenn State close (Memphis). Which is why above +10 here think its to high at 1st look . Maybe MTSU would be -3 vs Cuse . The simple question is Louisville as good or better then Pitt ? Cause probably outplayed Pitt for 3 quarters but like all vad teams unravel in a blink .

:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Problem is this Ville team is so different from last years . I recall this discussion with them prior to them playing Uconn as many feel they were robbed last year .

Put this way if Louisville has the chance to rub it in Cuse 's face think they will . They key is does the game allow it at some point .

Figure out tmrw..

 

[RetroVK]

Problem is this Ville team is so different from last years . I recall this discussion with them prior to them playing Uconn as many feel they were robbed last year .

Put this way if Louisville has the chance to rub it in Cuse 's face think they will . They key is does the game allow it at some point .

Figure out tmrw..

But they thoroughly outplayed uconn .. deceiving score.