2008-09 CFB Bowls...

LJC: Tough to say when it goes around pick 'em.

I mean, no one wants to deal 0 as the line. 1/2 point doesn't exist. So a lot of times you see several places using '1' and several others using the other side '1'.

A '3' one way to a '3' the other is closer related to a game opening '3' and moving to '6' or '6.5' than it is '9', if you understand what I'm saying.

There's really not much to it, as far as these bowls go. Everyone has a power rating on these teams that is firmly established by now and there's very little room for fudging.

Doc's number was prolly Ball State 4 or 5, thus a lot of guys opened it higher than maybe they should have.

Billy's people were aware that Hoke had left, Ball had crumbled after the 12-0 start, Tulsa stomped a MAC team 63-7 last year, and the MAC is 0-4 ATS/SU in the bowls.

Those factors prompted the move. It was Walters and basically he alone who made Tulsa move from catching 3 and 2 all the way to the favorite's role. The piling on of Tulsa after that came from his followers.
 
13-11-1 with the last game to go.

I am on Oklahoma. The Sooners are the highest-scoring team in the history of college football (post-1930).

They average 54 points per game. There have been some bad defenses on the other side, but their defense also ranks third or better in every category in the Big XII.

The back-to-back bowl losses to Boise and West Virginia should serve as good early motivation here. I don't expect a slow start out of Stoopies' boys in this spot. This should allow them to relax and settle into a groove. Florida has been a great first quarter team, but if Oklahoma can get off the schnide, it will make things easier on them.

On offense, they should be able to score at will. The Sooners have the best offensive line in the country, giving him all day to throw in nearly every game. Florida has great athletes on both the first and second-strings, but they don't do a whole lot. It's a very basic defense.

This OU spread is basically a glorified I-formation where they look to run the ball first. The line strength makes missing Murray not such a liability; the other backs are capable. Bradford does a great job of checking out if he spots any kind of over-aggressiveness - and they quick-count before the defense can get out of its call. Another key is that the Sooners rarely go backward or get nothing on the ground, and that can wear the Gators down, and more importantly, keep Tebow on the sideline.

The Sooner defense has been banged up most of the season, but if it can figure out how to get pressure to Tebow, it greatly increases their chances at success. Tebow's mistakes usually come when defenders pressure him and put him in spots where he can't use his mobility as an advantage.

I expect Stoops to play some three deep zone to protect against the deep ball, as Tebow will try to take some shots. At the same time, the Sooners have got to have eight in the box to try to stop the run. He's got to show them different looks, as well, to pick his spots and pressure Tebow.

Special teams are a concern - the Gators excel in theirs, while OU has had problems with their return units from day one, including in the Texas loss. James is a stud. And the Gators have a different formation on nearly every punt. The Oklahoma coaches can't worry about blocking the punt, and have to find the eligible receivers.

But the Sooners have to be sick of hearing the ESPN-ites and others fawning over Tebow and Co. while ripping the Big XII defenses at the same time. All of that stops tomorrow night.

Prediction: Oklahoma 44, Florida 38
The play: Oklahoma plus 4.5 for a big bet. OVER 71 for a big bet.

GL in the finale, ladies and fellas...

:cheers:
 
I see some 5s out there. Based upon what you are seeing, is there anyway that this gets to 6 closer to the game time? I also see some 69.5s on the totals - would you see this moving back to above 70 or moving downward?

Has the leader of the pack already moved on this game? Or, is it possible that he likes the Sooners?
 
Normal: I would guess that if BW gets involved at this point, it would only be on the dog. I have heard nothing about him betting anything yet - and the line has gone up enough that there's no way he would lay 4.5, 5, 5.5 (all the same number to me)....

I can't see it hitting 6. If it does, someone smart will immediately tag it.

The total? No clue.

I had a good year with them but the bowls has been an utter catastrophe.
 
By the way, I am rooting for my score, or an even closer Oklahoma victory - I want to see some votes go to Utah, Texas and USC for No. 1.

I also want to see the Utah legislation gather steam and break up this tram-sham-mockery known as the BCS.

Why I care as a Ball State fan after the other night, I do not know :(
 
hello,
I don't post much but I do follow CKR picks and he knows his college football. I follow gator football very closely and have watched every single game most of them more than once. OU will not score at will as CKR stated. Gator defense is good not great yet as they are very young, but they will not allow OU to score at will. OU will work for every point, they are tough kids and very athletic. The OU run game is not very good if you look at the only two decent defenses they played vs TCU and Texas, OU avg like 2 yards per carry. Yes, OU lit up other very bad defenses with the run but not the better ones. I can assure you that UF defense is better than both TCU and Texas.
Also, CKR stated Tebow will try and take his shots, which may happen but it would be out of the normal. Tebow does not throw downfield often. UF offense is actually conservative, that is what people don't understand. They prefer to control the clock. UF has a ton of speed in harvin, Demps and Rainey so yes they make big plays, but most of them are off screens or off tackle runs. Uf likes to wear down teams and break the big play.
In conclusion I am not saying OU will not win as CKR predicts, it just won't be the way he predicts. UF does have a very young defensive backfield and is very thin at DT, if OU can do what Texas did to OSU and tire the defense out they have a shot. UF will be very tough to stop as they have a excellent offensive line and a fullback for a QB. Meyer does not leave a stone unturned, he will be ready. UF special teams are second to none. The UF defense is a ball hawking defense and scores alot as does the special teams. Assuming both teams play a very solid game with few mistakes, UF wins this game. But if UF does turn the ball over like they did vs Ole Miss and OU takes care of the ball they have a shot. I honestly think OU needs some luck to win.
 
allaboutthecash said:
hello,
I don't post much but I do follow CKR picks and he knows his college football. I follow gator football very closely and have watched every single game most of them more than once. OU will not score at will as CKR stated. Gator defense is good not great yet as they are very young, but they will not allow OU to score at will. OU will work for every point, they are tough kids and very athletic. The OU run game is not very good if you look at the only two decent defenses they played vs TCU and Texas, OU avg like 2 yards per carry. Yes, OU lit up other very bad defenses with the run but not the better ones. I can assure you that UF defense is better than both TCU and Texas.
Also, CKR stated Tebow will try and take his shots, which may happen but it would be out of the normal. Tebow does not throw downfield often. UF offense is actually conservative, that is what people don't understand. They prefer to control the clock. UF has a ton of speed in harvin, Demps and Rainey so yes they make big plays, but most of them are off screens or off tackle runs. Uf likes to wear down teams and break the big play.
In conclusion I am not saying OU will not win as CKR predicts, it just won't be the way he predicts. UF does have a very young defensive backfield and is very thin at DT, if OU can do what Texas did to OSU and tire the defense out they have a shot. UF will be very tough to stop as they have a excellent offensive line and a fullback for a QB. Meyer does not leave a stone unturned, he will be ready. UF special teams are second to none. The UF defense is a ball hawking defense and scores alot as does the special teams. Assuming both teams play a very solid game with few mistakes, UF wins this game. But if UF does turn the ball over like they did vs Ole Miss and OU takes care of the ball they have a shot. I honestly think OU needs some luck to win.
Click to expand...



First , glad you are posting and second good luck tonight.

but your bolded comment confuses me .... florida defense is good not great but better than tcu defense who is arguably the best in the nation ? If the gator defense is as good as tcu , then this game rates to be another championship yawner.
 
I apologize for the confusion. TCU defense is good and statistically they are #1, but that is do to the competition. A great defense is USC. The UF defense is very good and the only reason they are not great is youth. The 5 db's are 2 true frosh, 2 true soph and 1 RS soph. The D line is 2 rs soph dt's and a true soph DE plus a true junior DE.
Spikes in my opinion is the best MLB in country and is a great defensive leader not only by actions but vocally. He does not let his teammates get down or out of position. UF defense doesn't have a senior on the 2 deep and only 2 true juniors, so next year they will be great.
I have watched TCU several times and yes I do think it is a very good defense it is more a product of its competition kinda liek Ball st was supposed to have a good defense. I am not coparing TCU to Ball St as I know TCU defense is real, but I do not think TCU is a great defense and if they played in Big 12, they would not rank so high.
This game won't be a yawn, by any stretch. Ou will move teh ball and OU will score but keep in mind Bradford has had a few 2 int's games this year vs inferior defenses. Tebow has never threw 2 int's in a game in his career. Ultimately I think these teams trade blows but UF special teams and OU's TO's will decide winner.
 
fair enough ..... i think the tcu defense is legit (porbably second behind the usc defense you mentioned) and if i thought floridas was as good , i would certainly have locked in the gators at -3.

fair enough and thanks for clarifying. gl tonight allabout
 
Nice posts allaboutthecash and I do agree, TCU is a very good defense, but not near the talent level the Gators have. They do however play well together and are clearly coached well...

USC, Florida, TCU are top tier IMO

Good luck tonight to both sides, it should be a fucking great game either way
 
cubsker said:
Walters on the Gators, Rex?
Click to expand...



Normal: I would guess that if BW gets involved at this point, it would only be on the dog. I have heard nothing about him betting anything yet - and the line has gone up enough that there's no way he would lay 4.5, 5, 5.5 (all the same number to me)....

I can't see it hitting 6. If it does, someone smart will immediately tag it.
 
aplous said:
Normal: I would guess that if BW gets involved at this point, it would only be on the dog. I have heard nothing about him betting anything yet - and the line has gone up enough that there's no way he would lay 4.5, 5, 5.5 (all the same number to me)....

I can't see it hitting 6. If it does, someone smart will immediately tag it.
Click to expand...


Already hitting 6 some places .. will be interesting to see what the resistance point is.

i know this much , if it hits 6.5 i will buy to the 7 and take my chances on the mullets.
 
NormalDude said:
I see some 5s out there. Based upon what you are seeing, is there anyway that this gets to 6 closer to the game time? I also see some 69.5s on the totals - would you see this moving back to above 70 or moving downward?

Has the leader of the pack already moved on this game? Or, is it possible that he likes the Sooners?
Click to expand...

I just took plus 6, for a good sized wager,at VIP! (or Nines) They are basically the same outfit! The over under is at 69.5. Hope that is helpful.
 
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allaboutthecash said:
This game won't be a yawn, by any stretch. Ou will move teh ball and OU will score but keep in mind Bradford has had a few 2 int's games this year vs inferior defenses. Tebow has never threw 2 int's in a game in his career. Ultimately I think these teams trade blows but UF special teams and OU's TO's will decide winner.
Click to expand...

I am more of a lurker then poster and will probably be a mere tailgator (opps tailgater) for life. I am personally intrigued, though neutral, by tonight's game. I do agree with some of what you and CGR said but having said that I am wondering what you think the spread should realistically be and do you think the gators will be able cover the touchdown that is currently being offered in many books. BOL whatever happens.
 
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To be honest, I think Vegas misinterpreted the public. Vegas wants 50/50 money and I think they assumed the public's love affair with the Heisman and high powered offense was much greater. The line is correcting itself but it may be too late. I think the line should have started at 6 or 6.5, but I am sure Vegas felt the Public would love OU and their 60 points per game. I got in at 3 and more at 3.5, I honestly would have taken UF up to 6.5. I am a life long OU fan since Billy Sims, I became a Uf fan when Meyer spurned ND for UF. My point is I follow both teams very closely, I like both teams and no more about both teams than most, I am a recruiting nerd. UF has the better coach, better defense, better special teams. UF offense may not be better but it is less error free and that is very important in big games
 
good stuff AAtC. don't stop posting after this game :)

i'm with ya. i put in at -3 and i'm sticking with it unless somehow i get +7.5(middle) at normal vig (won't happen)
 
CKR-

This is one of the few reasonable posts I have seen on the web about this game. With the line at 6, only value out there is on boomer. I see a 3-6pt W either way.

:tiphat:
 
I think the opening line was a slight mistake. Four would have been better than 3.

I'm not sure if Billy is betting tonight or not, but if he is, he would only be on the dog at +6 or better.

I feel better and better about Oklahoma winning this one outright, regardless...
 
I feel better and better about Oklahoma winning this one outright, regardless...

why do you feel better about the Sooners winning SU today than you did...say yesterday?<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
allaboutthecash said:
hello,
I don't post much but I do follow CKR picks and he knows his college football. I follow gator football very closely and have watched every single game most of them more than once. OU will not score at will as CKR stated. Gator defense is good not great yet as they are very young, but they will not allow OU to score at will. OU will work for every point, they are tough kids and very athletic. The OU run game is not very good if you look at the only two decent defenses they played vs TCU and Texas, OU avg like 2 yards per carry. Yes, OU lit up other very bad defenses with the run but not the better ones. I can assure you that UF defense is better than both TCU and Texas.
Also, CKR stated Tebow will try and take his shots, which may happen but it would be out of the normal. Tebow does not throw downfield often. UF offense is actually conservative, that is what people don't understand. They prefer to control the clock. UF has a ton of speed in harvin, Demps and Rainey so yes they make big plays, but most of them are off screens or off tackle runs. Uf likes to wear down teams and break the big play.
In conclusion I am not saying OU will not win as CKR predicts, it just won't be the way he predicts. UF does have a very young defensive backfield and is very thin at DT, if OU can do what Texas did to OSU and tire the defense out they have a shot. UF will be very tough to stop as they have a excellent offensive line and a fullback for a QB. Meyer does not leave a stone unturned, he will be ready. UF special teams are second to none. The UF defense is a ball hawking defense and scores alot as does the special teams. Assuming both teams play a very solid game with few mistakes, UF wins this game. But if UF does turn the ball over like they did vs Ole Miss and OU takes care of the ball they have a shot. I honestly think OU needs some luck to win.
Click to expand...

SEC "D's" have been very over rated all year! Alabama #6 & South Carolina #12 rated "d's" is/was a joke. Poor offenses(vandy,auburn,south carolina,miss st,kentucky) overall in SEC is reason d's look so good on paper .
 
Sir Rex,
Thanks for all your effort. I look forward to your niffel thought this weekend.
BTW - I am sooner and over homer so your selection for tonite make me very happy. I sure hope it plays out this way. the sooner d is not what i would like for it to be the past 3-5 years (nothing like it was in 2K when they won the NC). I think bob has been taking the thought process of outscoring every team the sooners play. i expect the sooners to score on the gators and feel quite sure the gators will score. the sooners have a hard time with a running qb and have not had the d line be able to bring pressure like it needs to. in 04 -05 and 06 with tommy harris, big dan cody and some others i thought they would dominate the big 12 but injuries hit. I am really looking forward to tonight and will be taking the sooners and gators team totals over tonite as well. sorry to ramble, again thanks for all your effort !!!!!
 
Fellas: Spiros and Walters are both on the dog.

Koshers and Trace are on the favorite (but at 3 no doubt).

horses - I feel better because of my chart - we have roughly 5 bets on Florida to every 2 on Oklahoma.
 
horses - I feel better because of my chart - we have roughly 5 bets on Florida to every 2

Thanks Rex.
 
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