2008-09 CFB Bowls...

Nut - Wrong.

Billy laid it. Now the public is betting it too.

Every once in awhile the line up. When that happens, we just have to hope for buyback - then we have to try to figure out how to beat them...
 
I was slow on a middle opportunity.....had it up until about 10 minutes ago....now I'm pissed!!!!!

What to do at 6? What to do at 6? kinda like Vandy small now
 
Screenwatchers, scalpers, middlers all out taking the 6, 5.5, 5 - now you see all sorts of prices out there.

CRIS just had 4 - now they go back to 5.5 within 3 minutes.
 
The triple option offense has paid dividends for Bobby Johnson in his first season in Atlanta. When the Jackets upended in-state rival for the first time in several years, the Peach Bowl rewarded them with a home game. Despite not yet having the personnel recruited to run the option, the Jackets posted the nation’s third best ground attack and averaged over 288 yards per game. Tech really started to find a rhythm toward the end of the season. They exploded for 86 points in the final two games against Georgia and Miami of Florida and just two weeks prior had posted 31 points on Florida State.

That's bad news for a LSU defense that's rated ninth overall in the SEC - but the Tigers were dead last in conference play, allowing 32 points per game. When you consider the fact that LSU faced South Carolina, Auburn and Mississippi State (three of the worst offenses in the all of the southeast, let alone the SEC) those numbers are extremely alarming.

On the other side, the three quarterbacks for LSU were downright bad this year. None of them did better than 55 percent completion percentage. Still-learning Tiger true frosh QB Jordan Jefferson got the start in the finale against Arkansas. It's going to be tough for him to maintain his composure under the intense pressure that the aggressive GT defense (90 tackles for loss, 32 sacks, 29 takeaways) will come with.

LSU has six straight losses ATS to end the season. It won't stop tonight.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 41, Louisiana State 20
The play: Georgia Tech -3.5 for a big bet.
 
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Only one game locked in for New Year's Day at this point. It's the Hangover Bowl in Tampa, where I bit on Iowa -3 -115 earlier in the week. Not sure if the price will go back down or not, but I still lean towards the Hawkeyes, winners of five of six to end the season.

The Hawkeyes won their first three before hard fought losses to Pitt, Northwestern and Michigan State. The main culprit was nine turnovers, including five against Northwestern. But they were to lose only once more, at Illinois, on a 46-yd FG in the final 25 seconds.
QB Stanzi had only three interceptions in the last six games, and everyone knows Shonn Green is a stud - he finished second in the nation with 1,729 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Bottom line: All four losses were by five points or less.

South Carolina lost their last two by combined scores of 87-20. The Cocks ranked 110th in America in rushing and threw for only 19 touchdowns with 20 interceptions.

Enough for me; where do I sign up?

Prediction: Iowa 27, South Carolina 13
The play:Iowa -3 -115 for a medium bet.

I might come back tomorrow with a bet on Penn State. Nothing yet but that is the only other game I am considering.

GL fellas, and Happy New Year... I'll try to be around later for a bit...

:cheers:
 
had BC -3.5 and Vandy +6 which I was able to bet at the exact same time due to a local who doesn't move his numbers much. Oh, for a late BC today to win by 5. Would've made my day. Ah, well. GL tomorrow Rex.
 
Thanks fellas. GL today. Just lost a big post about the SEC. I was able to make a lot of money earlier this season both booking and betting by realizing before most of my counterparts that the SEC is basically an NFL Developmental League.

Anytime they played out of league, they were getting the cash.... ESPECIALLY when they had the fortune of catching points. I don't know how that got lost on me as the season progressed - I guess all them teams beating the shit out of each other lowered my perception on each individual team. My ratings on several teams are just too low for these bowls, it looks like. That sends out alarms and bells in my head, looking at my list.

Vandy - beat my dick in last night.
South Carolina - against today.
Kentucky - against tomorrow.
Florida - lean against in NC game.
Georgia - lean against today.

LSU - bet against and got anally violated yesterday in a big opinion.
Alabama - bet against tomorrow
Ole Miss - no opinion

It's a worrisome scenario. I have a strong opinion on East Carolina and made them much higher against shitty Kentucky. But grandpa Ritchie always seems to prosper in these non-league spots the last couple of years. Anyways, if Iowa wins and covers today, that will go a long way to alleviating my fears about the SEC running roughshod through these other "minor" leagues...
 
Couldn't help it. Out of principality and respect to my number...

Prediction: Jorja 31, Mich State 24
The play: Mishitgan State +10 for a small bet.

GL...
 
Now at 12-8-1 on the season.

No opinion on the first game. The line is at about 4, 4.5 now, which is close to what I would make it.

Ole Miss is capable but has made many mistakes. There is a good thread JoeP started about this one that I don't need to contribute more about that one here. I will root for Ole Miss as that is who we are going to need more than any other side today.

Two plays:

First, I'm on East Carolina -2 for a medium bet. The Pirates woulda been a bigger bet but I correctly had to wonder how proper my SEC ratings were. Grandpa Ritchie has been tough the last couple of seasons in non-con games, but UK is without Cobb, who was Mr. Everything to an offense that didn't have Anything most of the year. The Cats lost 6 of 8 and finished dead last in their division. Find a colder bowl team - you won't... They travel so well, so they were an attractive option to the Memphis Bowl. Meanwhile, East Carolina is the C-USA champ and aside from a month-long lull in the middle of the season, opened it and closed it better than any team in that league. Skippy knows what he's doing.

Prediction: East Carolina 27, Kentucky 10
THe play: ECU -2 medium.

Not sure how Alabama can lay this price to Utah, even before the LT got suspended. This team is undefeated for a reason - it just keeps finding ways to win. It's a testament to great coaching and preparation and never panicking when things look at their worst. Alabama off the crushing loss to Florida where they left it all on the Jorja Dome turf. I look for a sloppy, uneven and uninspired performance tonight. Utah gets ahead a couple of scores early, and hangs on to win it outright...

Prediction: Utah 23, Alabama 20
The play: Utah +11 for a big bet.

Would take 10 for a big bet. Would take 7.5 to 9.5 for a medium bet.

Good luck fellas...
 
I think the Rebels might get it done today....lots of hype on TT (certainly merited); but Ole Miss in a good spot - flying under the radar.

BOL to you today Rex.

:cheers:
 
Mr. Rex,

Can you please tell me how in the hell Utah is going to score 23 points on Bama?

Thanks,

Uncle Galtie
 
Sir Rex,
R U going to provide some insight on the 4 Niffel games this weekend. indy, balt and atl seem like the right side. please let me know if you have time..thanks !!!
 
biggoob I will be giving an NFL writeup tonight as soon as I get home and get some cocktails in me. I am about to leave shortly. Need to deal the halftime. Give me about 3 hours...
 
Nice going on the Utah pick. Don't know your win % on your big bets but the ones I have gone with do pretty damn well. I sincerely thank you for that! You are one gifted capper but rarer then that is your willingness to share with "the unwashed masses" of average cappers. I sincerely hope you have a phenomenally prosperous new year.:smiley_abcs:
PS Hope no one feels violated by my borrowing a few words from Marx.
 
Not sure how Alabama can lay this price to Utah, even before the LT got suspended. This team is undefeated for a reason - it just keeps finding ways to win. It's a testament to great coaching and preparation and never panicking when things look at their worst. Alabama off the crushing loss to Florida where they left it all on the Jorja Dome turf. I look for a sloppy, uneven and uninspired performance tonight. Utah gets ahead a couple of scores early, and hangs on to win it outright...

Prediction: Utah 23, Alabama 20
The play: Utah +11 for a big bet.


What ????:36_19_2:
Did you see the game yesterday.
Great Call.
 
rexineffect...

loooooong time lurker, first time poster, someone talked me out, never play against rex again...
 
:cheers:

doesnt even need to mention that he hit yet another nice middle in the utah game tonight with utah 2H. very nice work. learned yet another lesson to never be on the other side of you, as i thought the 2H middle lied within bama....johnson did end up coming through with the obligatory turnover early on but was shocked w/ how bad bama secondary was in tackling. Utah deserved it, great call.

once coffee got hurt you prolly knew both of your wagers were golden. its not like that fucking JPW clown could actually throw the ball down the field and aside from finding coffee in the flat bama offense was pretty much dead.

bama never recovered from that mike johnson injury and utah exploited that young right side of the OL all day. with smith already out the depth was thin coming into the game. crazy to hear bama actually played 16 freshman, should have a great squad next season. anyways excellent day today and excellent season (routine)
 
Sup fellas. Thanks much for the comments. Will keep this brief as I want to do a Niffel writeup for these playoff games...

Now at 13-9-1 for the bowls...

I took the worst of it with Buffalo. I thought Turner Gill staying put would keep this line closer to where it opened. The good money has come for UConn, however. Can't say I blame the astute ones, as those who watched Ball State play Buffalo know that the end result was a freakish, 1-in-50 deal where there were two separate 14-point swings less than 10 minutes (5 minutes? I've tried to wash that game) apart. It's damn near impossible for anyone to win, let alone cover, in spots like that. But the stats showed Ball's total domination (another reason, along with Parrish staying, why I like them against Tulsa and will take a plus-ML play in the Mobile Bowl).

On the other hand, UConn would have trouble scoring in some of the local brothels down here. Their offense is average at best, and we've seen how fraudulent the Big East has looked in the bowls thus far (has there even been a cover? Pitt pushed for those who got a good number, I guess).

Prediction: UConn 27, Buffalo 24
The plays: Buffalo +4.5 for a small bet. Buffalo +7 for another small bet.

GL...
 
Rex,
Was on ECU myself, looked like we had a winna at halftime. Don't mind losing cause the Cats one, would have sucked if ECU scored and one by 1.
 
On the other hand, UConn would have trouble scoring in some of the local brothels down here.

:36_11_6:


Too funny.

Great call on utah and great season , as per usual , REX.

gl the rest of the way.
 
Pretty simple to see the reasons why the line moved in this Mobile Bowl tonight.

Doc Mindlin made Ball State higher. Walters plowed into Tulsa. There you have it.

Tulsa is now favored.

Doc's BSU number is why I laid 2.5 with the Cards, and it's why I am taking them on the ML for the same type of bet tonight.

Let's look at the negatives:

Tulsa just thrashed Bowling Green 63-7 last year in this same exact spot. Though, them taking the MAC lightly could easily result in a positive for Ball State.

The Cards were 12-0 before stumbling against Buffalo - that abysmal effort basically eroded all of the midwest and any nationwide respect the Cards had earned in working out their perfect regular season, with each win by DDs.

Former coach Brady Hoke took a better salary and a nicer climate in his move out west to coach at San Diego State. In his place, hastily-hired new coach Stan Parrish will take over. Parrish was a successful smaller college head coach before getting in over his head at Kansas State in the 1980s - eventually losing his job after a 2-30-1 mark before Bill Snyder took over.

The MAC is now 0-4 ATS and SU in these bowls, damaging the credibility of a league that had four teams from the West division post wins over Big 10 teams this season.

But the bottom line is this: Utah has 13 wins. Florida or Oklahoma will end with 13 wins. If Ball State wins tonight, they will be in that same sort of elite company.

It's up to the Cards to erase the painful memory of the embarassing loss to a Buffalo team that wildly overachieved and that will never enjoy the fortuituous success that it had in 2008. A 28-point swing in the MAC title game was just the cherry on top.

Parrish is an offensive genious. He was the one who recruited Davis, and I expect Lewis to shoulder much of the workload tonight to try to keep the explosive Golden Hurricane offense on the sidelines. That is my one worry with betting this thing over. But it looks like the offenses outmatch the defenses on both sides.

That said, I like Ball State's defense better than Tulsa's. The concern would obviously be losing Hoke, who not only was the HC but also the de-facto DC. That said, the Cards have most of the old staff intact (at least for this game) and should be ready for what Graham and the Tulsa staff throws at them.

Does Tulsa want to be here? Who is the better team? Will Davis erase the painful memories of the Detroit fiasco?

I say yes to the last question. And I made Ball the favorite, even with some intangibles working against them.

Prediction: Ball State 44, Tulsa 37
The plays: Ball State -2 for a medium bet. Ball State +137 ML for a medium bet. OVER 76 for a medium bet.

GL fellas...
 
Good stuff CKR . I played Tulsa while the line was moving figured it may get to 3 and worse middle (basically have Tulsa ML -120 avg) . The more I look at this game the more I like Ball State . So happy you concur and probably the last nail in the coffin for me not only playing the middle but getting down on Ball State ....so true about the perception part...:cheers:GL
 
I agree that Ball St's defense is better than Tulsa but thats like saying I'll take the chubby blonde over the chubby brunette - you dont like either but have to make a choice...Maybe Im oversimplifying and Im sure that Ball St's def numbers are much better than Tulsa but I dont think Ball has seen this kind of team speed in the MAC and the fast pace of their spread offense...Ball St's offense is the perfect tonic to a team who can scheme- what they do isnt rocket science - they primarily attack the deep safety and make him choose and Davis is fantastic at throwing to the receiver in single coverage.....I never understood why so many MAC teams played Ball man-to-man and not play a two deep or at least blitz with a zone behind it......Tulsa will give up yards on the ground no doubt but I think Tulsa will force more empty possessions than Ball St - dont think Ball St has the athletes on defense to match up with the Golden Hurricane..Just my two cents..If any team has the chance to be unmotivated, its Ball St - just look at Alabama - they lost thei chance at the title game and laid an egg with a head coach that some consider to be the best in the game and he couldnt motivte them.....Ball St wanted to be like Utah and be undefeated come bowl time and self desructed against Buffalo - mix in the loss of the head coach/ defacto def coord who was replaced by a guy who was a miserable failure the first time he was a head coach (sometimes there are coaches who function best as the coordinator and not as the chief indian).....

G/L gents
 
Do you think weather/wind will be a big factor in tonights match-up CKR? I still like the over with some rain but if the winds howling, I'm afraid it'll effect the long ball, crushing the over play??

GL :popcorn:
 
Sword - Good points all. Parrish was a successful head coach in the late-70s and early 80s at smaller schools before he was a colossal failure at K-State. Then again, tell me anyone who did better before Snyder - that place was a coaching graveyard. I'm happy that coach Parrish is getting another crack at being "chief".

Lao - There will be some rain but I don't think the wind is going to be a factor, and the Mobile Bowl has FieldTurf so I'm not worried about the conditions at Ladd-Peebles too much...
 
Hope you don't mind Rex, but I C&P'd your thoughts on the game into Sammy's thread. Us Ball State backers seem to be in the minority tonight.

With you on BSU ML, and may also take a small stab at the spread at some point.

:shake:
 
All good, Aztec...

Here is some more info:

Parrish spent two days in Tulsa last year watching video of the Tulsa offense. About nine months ago, Gus Malzahn let him see the nuances of the Tulsa offense, specifically a package that would be installed to help receiver Dante Love get more touches.

The key play in the Tulsa package that Parrish added to the Cardinals' attack was the jet sweep. It's one of the signature plays of the Golden Hurricane's offense. Meanwhile, the plays were used sparingly after Love was lost for the season in September with a fractured spine. Occasionally, backup tailback Cory Sykes will run the jet sweep. Tulsa has a couple of passes off of that, and a reverse as well.
 
Some notes:

The 42 points scored by Buffalo were the most against the Cardinals this season. The previous high was 24 by Akron and Central Michigan. Of course, five turnovers had plenty to do with that. Ball State's 152 rushing yards against Buffalo were also a season low.

Gus Malzahn is going to Auburn after this one... How will that affect the Tulsa offense?

The Cardinals are first in the country in fewest penalties (2.77 per game) and penalty yards (26.85).

UNDER certainly looks appealing with the weather and the fact that the Cardinal defense has played well most of the year.

But two of the top passers in college football, Nate Davis of Ball State and David Johnson of Tulsa, figure to make tonight's game highly entertaining. Davis, a junior who is considering leaving for the NFL next season, was the MAC's offensive player of the year after firing 26 TD passes. Johnson, a senior, was Conference USA's offensive MVP after tossing 43 TD passes in his first year as a starter. Johnson led the nation in passing efficiency all but one week this year and is No. 2 now, while Davis is No. 8 going into the bowl game.

Ball State has not trailed at halftime this season. That spells trouble for Tulsa, who will see a balanced Ball State offense led by Lewis, who is one of the best backs Tulsa will have seen this season.
 
Your analysis is spot on IMO....I was sold a while ago...no disagreement in the least here. Hopefully she pans out.....

BOL to you and all BSU backers.

:cheers:

And a Happy New Year.
 
Good luck CKR, solid thoughts as usual.....

Tough to play an under with these two teams, there isnt enough Alka Seltzer in Rite Aid..... I guess it really depends on who you like.
I would say a correlated parlay wouldnt be a bad idea here...

If you like balls, it would look to go under, as they will look to run the football more and slow the pace of the game down.

If you like tulsa, and riding walters nuts, it will more then likely go over as they will be satisified with a run-n-gun, trackmeet type of game.

Anyways... leaning your way, and put in a small parlay with balls/under. Lets cash.
 
You have a good point, Cap... I agree that if Ball wins, there is a good chance of it staying under.

Vice versa. I guess, I basically think that Tulsa has no answer for Ball State's balance - otherwise how could I lay points and then go over a total in the 70s?

haha

GL...
 
I have a question for you Rex. What is your opinion on this drastic of a line reversal? 5.5 pts?

I mean in general not specific to this game. I tend to believe that the book will typically be more correcting in the setting of the line then the pub that moved it this much.

What are your thoughts?
 
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