2008-09 CFB Bowls...

Thanks fellas...

Jasper - agree.

I think a lot of these people get caught up on the box score, but it's the same deal with that team all year. TCU had outplayed everyone on the field - in covering-type style (except for Colorado State perhaps) - by miles except for Oklahoma. They shoulda won and/or covered in Salt Lake City (or so says everyone). They shoulda did the same last night.

At some point the same excuses become old and tired. If Boise played that team 10 times, I believe they would win 5 and cover that 3.5 points 6 or 7 times. I would make the same bet today after watching them play last night.

Passing the Hawaii Bowl for now but if a '3' pops up then I will bet on the BOWS on principle alone. The last time Notre Dame walked off the field a winner in December or January was back when I was in high school. Now they can, after a lackluster season and an improper reward with a trip to the islands, all of a sudden start laying points to a motivated Hawaii bunch that thrives in these home bowl games, is a joke to me.

In fact, I just talked myself into a bet.

Prediction: Hawaii 23, Notre Dame 17
THe play: Hawaii +121 for a medium bet.

I will bet on Hawaii +3 for a small bet as well if it pops up.

GL and Merry Christmas...
 
Rex....where the heck did you grab "61" for the motor city bowl???

Someone mentioned now up to 68....all I see now is 69....looks like they are beggin for some UNDER action to come in......just curious on your thoughts now that its been banged up so high....insanity.

:cheers:
 
I don't think they can make it high enough.

I bet it at CRIS when it first came out. I made the game 73. Would still only have over but it would be a no-bet now that the line has been pounded into oblivion...
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Thanks fellas...

Jasper - agree.

I think a lot of these people get caught up on the box score, but it's the same deal with that team all year. TCU had outplayed everyone on the field - in covering-type style (except for Colorado State perhaps) - by miles except for Oklahoma. They shoulda won and/or covered in Salt Lake City (or so says everyone). They shoulda did the same last night.

At some point the same excuses become old and tired. If Boise played that team 10 times, I believe they would win 5 and cover that 3.5 points 6 or 7 times. I would make the same bet today after watching them play last night.

Passing the Hawaii Bowl for now but if a '3' pops up then I will bet on the BOWS on principle alone. The last time Notre Dame walked off the field a winner in December or January was back when I was in high school. Now they can, after a lackluster season and an improper reward with a trip to the islands, all of a sudden start laying points to a motivated Hawaii bunch that thrives in these home bowl games, is a joke to me.

In fact, I just talked myself into a bet.

Prediction: Hawaii 23, Notre Dame 17
THe play: Hawaii +121 for a medium bet.

I will bet on Hawaii +3 for a small bet as well if it pops up.

GL and Merry Christmas...
Click to expand...


This bowl was a great contrast between fundamental edges and mental edges and honestly fellas I get caught reading the wrong capping tool sometimes..I admit I had ND but i agree that the mental edges were all Hawaii but ND is better at both sides of the lines in my opinion and had some motivation as well..

So I ask all of you - when one side has the fundamental edges (talent) and the other side has the intangibles and mental edges, what sways you the most? Or do you stay away?
 
I am seeing 71 which is one big bushel of points. If it goes up one half of one point I am going under on principle. These guys have had ample time to think about countering some of this offensive. By the 2nd half at least one team will be trying to kill the clock,at least a little and more defensive adjustments will be made on both sides. I think I have talked myself into the under!
 
Always appreciate your thoughts Rex.....I just couldn't consider the U in a game that features two very capable offenses (and suck putrid defenses) I figured on mid-70s myself...guess we'll just wait and see.

Think you got a steal with 61. BOL.

Cheers bro.
 
SS - Looking back, it's easy to make a case for Notre Dame. Everyone said they didn't belong in a bowl game, let alone get to go to Hawaii for a bowl game.

The coach was/is coaching for his job. The players have been harassed about how bad they are since the last game. They had two options - roll over and lie down like the bitches I thought they were, or man up, grab their collective sacks, and get down to business. They chose the latter.
 
Thanks fellas. Waited out 3 on North Carolina today in the early game but it never popped up, so no bet in this early one.

Will consider some buyback on Wisconsin if a 7 pops up, as I only made the game 7.5.
 
OK. Getting out for half.

No real opinion in this game but it could easily fall West Virginia 1 - at least from what I watched.


2H West Virginia -2 -120.

If West Virginia wins by 1 or 2 I scoop the pot. This is for half the bet I had on Carolina +3 for the game.

GL fellas...
 
CKR,

Im seeing a few 6.5's for FSU and total around 51.5. What are your opinions now? Going to get out for some? Low scoring? High scoring? Will be cheering on your NCSU play on Monday live from Legion Field.
 
Scooper on the other game. That worked out quite well.

I still think that Florida State is the right side. Something along the lines of Florida State winning it about 33-20.
 
VERY nice work on the middle rex.....

thats why youre the collegeking, you were spot on in that one... middle opp at the half and thinking WVU would pull it out winning by 1 or 2 and thats exactly what they did. great call.
 
Thanks, Cap.

Now sitting at 7-4 on the bowl season after the Noles get the cash.

Adding one more tonight.

ACC is now 3-0 ATS so far.

Miami of Florida is not really the kind of team that deserves to get double digits from any sort of Pac-10 team. Sure, Cal is more or less playing a home game, but I like this QB starting for Miami. In 30-plus games going back to high school, this kid has never once lost a start.

Cal’s secondary had an amazing season, as their pass defense allowed just 193 ypg (51%) with a 9-23 td-int ratio (#3 in NCAA in int). But a lot of that success came against a plethora of pedestrian Pac-10 foes.

Miami hasn't covered in any of their last three but I expect a prideful effort tonight catching double digits. Not a big bet by any means, but...

Prediction: Cal 20, Miami Florida 14
The play: Miami +10.5 (would take 10 as well) for a medium bet. Would take 10 for a small bet as well...
 
up fellas. Now 8-4.

I have two plays today. Will be back after bit with Northwestern writeup.

The first game is a very underrated matchup if both teams decide to show up and play the way they did from November on.

Rutgers takes a six-game winning streak to Birmingham, while North Carolina State closed the season with four straight wins to become the most improbable of the 68 teams that are bowling, gaining eligibility after a 2-6 start.

It's a shame that these two play each other, as I was slow to catch on to the rapid progress of each team when their streak started. Rutgers was an absolute cash-cow the last two months.

The Scarlet Raiders lit up the scoreboard for 47 ppg during their streak, as senior Mike Teel got hot and threw for a dizzying 1,737 yards and 20 touchdowns in his final five games.

After a disappointing loss to North Carolina to drop to 0-2, Rutgers also outplayed Navy but lost that one too - then after a I-AA win, they lost close Big East games at West Virginia and Cincinnati before edging UConn at home to turn around their fortunes. The five game ATS and SU winning streak ensued, with eye-opening wins at Pitt and South Florida being the most impressive of the lot.

Rutgers has been performing like a top-20 team in its last five, if not better. That's why they are getting all the respect here. Few teams in football did more of a metamorphosis this season than Rutgers. One of them, however, was N.C. State.

After getting throttled at South Carolina and Clemson, the Wolfpack shocked unbeaten East Carolina. Whatever momentum they had after that one quickly dissipated, however, as they lost their next four. But the first loss to South Florida was the only non-cover of the lot.

A win at Duke started the streak, and wins over ranked foes Wake Forest at home and at North Carolina made everyone take notice - and the win at home against Miami (Florida) in the finale clinched this bid. All in all, the Pack are rolling with seven straight covers heading into this one.

Redshirt freshman Russell Wilson was the guy that Tommy O'Brien finally settled with at quarterback. He passed or 1,769 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s thrown 226 consecutive passes without an interception, a school record.

They also have a coach who has won seven straight bowl games (dating back to Boston College in 2000) on the field. Now you want to give him points? Wow.

Prediction: North Carolina State 30, Rutgers 27
The play: NC State plus 7 for a big bet.

I would also take plus 6.5 for a medium bet if you missed the 7.

GL...

:cheers:
 
GL today CKR. Love the Pack and Russell Wilson. Said in the in-game thread a few weeks back @ UNC that we could be talking about a legit Heisman candidate in 2-3 years since he's only a RS frosh.
 
Thanks fellas...

I certainly don't expect Mizzou to play its best in the first half. Losing your conference championship game 62-21 to Oklahoma is not something I expect the Tigers to get over overnight - especially when the defense showed constant holes against Kansas in the game before, as well.

Northwestern started off 5-0 before hitting the skids, with the low point being a 5-turnover debacle in Bloomington in a narrow loss to drop them to 2-2 in Big Ten play. But wins in three of the last four puts the Wildcats on the precipice of a 10-win season.

Northwestern has overcome injuries to several key players, but adequate replacements stepped in for youthful coach Pat Fitzgerald, who continues to improve his in-game coaching and adjustments with each passing contest. Senior quarterback C.J. Bacher has had an up-and-down injury-laden career, but returned before the end of the season, and stud running back Tyrell Sutton and defensive end Vince Browne will play in the Alamo Bowl as well.

Bacher has thrown for 2,128 yards and 14 touchdowns and three receivers have more than 40 catches. The Tigers have struggled in pass defense rank 118th against the pass and have allowed 26 touchdown passes.

Daniel has thrown eight interceptions in the Tigers' four losses. A turnover or two keeps this one really close...

Prediction: Missouri 37, Northwestern 30
The play: Northwestern +13.5 for a medium bet.

I would take 13 for a medium and from 11.5 to 12.5 for a smaller bet.

GL...
 
I have a BIG problem with this Rutgers-N C State game.
Both teams have been extremely kind to me.
I have gone 6-1 in N C State games, losing only the East Carolina game when I faded the wolfpack.
I have gone 7-1 in Rutgers games, losing only Navy and winning a fade with Fresno St.
So I know what you are talking about when you wish these teams weren't playing one another.
Having gotten that out of the way, I am playing these same sides as Rex in both games.
GL . Rex:tiphat:
 
Thanks fellas.

Up to 10-4. Gotta keep winnin if I'mma get in GOD country - Tru and I have been lethal when we match... hahaha....

Just one today. If Maryland keeps going up I might take 3.5. Same deal with Western Michigan. The Holiday Bowl should be fun to watch. Will Okie Light not having a coordinator impact it? Prolly not.

Western Mich/Rice OVER 71 for a medium bet.

Rice put up 42 or more points in seven of its nine wins.

From the Kalamazoo newspaper:

"The similarities between Rice and WMU appear boundless -- well beyond their identical 9-3 records.
Both earned historic bowl berths in 2006. Both had disappointing seasons in 2007, when buying into changes on their respective coaching staffs was an issue.
Both have quarterbacks who are members of their school's Fellowship of Christian Athletes ministries, each speaking at the Texas Bowl's FCA breakfast Saturday morning.
Both missed their team's 2006 bowl game with injuries.
And both of those quarterbacks, WMU's Tim Hiller and Rice's Chase Clement, are among the top 10 in the nation in almost every statistical passing category, including throwing for more than 3,500 yards."


The Broncos (especially on offense) are as healthy as they've been all season - but the Owls basically are playing in their backyard and will certainly have a partisan crowd behind them.

Prediction: Western 45, Rice 40
The play: OVER 71 for a medium bet.


Would go OVER anything less than 74 for the same bet. GL....
 
Not sure. I shoulda edited it out of the story but I'm a lazy bastard and I was putting up basketball lines a little before and the shit was starting to move about the same time I was finishing my writeup so I had to hurry so as not to get plugged by some mover on that shit...
 
Great stuff Rex....I hope you continue to rip'em a new one.

I like Rice and Nevada SU myself but your OVER looks solid. BOL.



:cheers:

PS> You got anthin' on the bball front tonight Rex?
 
Pack - I would have Oregon on the field, gun to the head. My thoughts I believe are in tru's thread about that game. But no bet for me in any of this mess today.
 
:cheers:

Great season youre having CKR, no surprise there though, routine.
Saw that you were planning to lay down a big one on Gtech...
was wondering if you could put up a couple thoughts for that one.

Reason being is I got some down @-3 early and looking to add on tomrrow @ -4 before it gets any higher then that.

While LSU may have had weeks to prepare for the triple option they have seen nothing like it all year in the SEC.
Basicly home field for GT w/ the game in atlanta although LSU will have a decent fan base as well.

Also questioning LSU's motivation here. After winning the national championship last year and all the big BCS games they've been in in the past couple years... how do they feel about facing Gtech in the friggin chick-fil-a bowl? And going for an 8 win season? Will they get up for this game?

As long as GT limits the turnovers here I think they win and cover easily.
Also found an interesting trend.
LSU is 0-10 ATS against rushing teams averaging over 4.5 YPC over the last 2 seasons.
 
brick city on the late game.

I will be here about kickoff tomorrow for the Air Force.

Not much to say as far as a writeup - I have no real opinion in that game. A rematch should favor Houston, as should the fact that they've had ample time to prepare for that rushing offense.

But the line move has reflected all of that. So no value in laying 3.5 or more now.

Total looks a tad high to me - if Okie Light and Oregon barely get to 70, how do you expect these guys to get just a touchdown less. Who knows... haha

Good night; back in the morning.
 
Do you not put any stock in the fact that a Military Academy is a better atmosphere to prepare for a football game. These teams are similarly mediocre. Athlete wise Houston may have a small edge but I feel AF will be ready.

Gotta go with "3 squares a day"...
 
Action in each of the last four today...



Basically, I made the Pitt game a flat pick. Rodgers isn't going to go for Oregon State, and that should hinder their ability to run the ball, especially inside the tackles, where Rodgers was surprisingly quick and powerful for his size.



Pitt has always been a feisty dog under Wanny. Motivation is a big factor - I expect the Beavers to be quite disappointed to be in El Paso rather than Pasadena, which is where they were one win from. The Beavers allow nearly five yards per carry, and when they were outgained on the ground (Utah, Stanford, Penn State, Oregon), they were 0-4 straight up. Pitt has two running backs that can get the job done, including standout McCoy. Give me the points with the better rushing and defensive team.



Pitt kicker Conor Lee is 20-of-23 on field goals, while Justin Kahut was just 3-for-8 from 40-plus for the Beavers. In a projected close game, this could make all the difference in the world. The Panthers have also blocked four punts this season.



The play: Pittsburgh +3 for a medium bet.


At the current price, I would take Pitt ML for a small bet. Nothing else.

back in a bit with the rest...
 
The Nashville Bowl is the one that makes me most sick as a bookmaker. Action in each of the last four today...

I made Boston College much much higher - intangibles kept me off it for a big bet and I sure hope I am wrong and Vandy wins this game outright, as the shop needs the Commodores for a big figure despite me dealing this game higher than the world for two weeks. Now I am at 5.5 with the world at 5 following the move that Walters made this morning... his followers slammed in and laid the 4 and 4.5 too....

To the game. Boston College never loses bowl games. Could there be a letdown after the second straight loss in Jacksonville to V-Tech? There could be, but there could have been last year, too. Meanwhile, Vandy lost six of seven to finish the year, with the lone win over a Kentucky team that I can't wait to bet against later in the week.

A solid D-line has led the way, as the Eagles have allowed 100 rushing yards or more just once in their past six games. But BC isn't one-dimensional on defense - its 26 interceptions lead the nation. Bad news for a Vandy offense that is obviously the worst of all 68 bowl teams.

Offensively, the Eagles want to establish the running game with tailbacks Haden and Harris. If Dominique Davis doesn't make mistakes - this turns into a laugher.

The intangibles and Davis's youth (see how many wins Vandy got this year from beating up on young, inexperienced and bad QB play) scared me off a big bet.

Like I said earlier, I hope I lose this one for the sake of the shop, but...

Prediction: Boston College 24, Vandy 10
The play: Boston College -4 +104 for a medium bet.
 
Got the worst of the number in the Tempe Bowl. But I'll ride it out, even with the Big 12 team that might have trouble defensively.

Kansas had a brutal second half of the season, playing five bowl teams in their final six games. The win over Mizzou in the season finale was closer to the team I expected to see coming into the season than the margin of some of the losses in November.

Meanwhile, Minnesota ran into a tougher stretch of the schedule, losing their last four regular season Big 10 games by a combined score of 143-55 (!). The 23-point home loss to Michigan still makes me wonder how in the hell this team won seven games. It was, indeed, a lot of smoke and mirrors.

Reesing had another good season, throwing for 3,575 yards and 28 touchdowns. He had seven 300-yard games - Minnesota struggled to stop the pass, and this is the best passing offense the Gophers have seen. He also is a threat to run it if Minnesota gets too aggressive with its pass rush.

Meanwhile, the Gopher offense has a solid QB in Weber, who is their best running threat - Minnesota ran for a total of 257 yards and one touchdown in the final four regular-season games.. That's pathetic. Decker is back, but can the line protect Weber? I think they'll struggle with Laptad, Holt and Co.

Prediction: Kansas 44, Minnesota 20
The play: Kansas -10 for a small bet.
 
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