2008-09 CFB Bowls...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Sup fellas...

Been superswamped at work and didn't really have any plays last week, so my presence has been pretty scarce around here lately.

Hopefully I can get that to change as the bowl season is here...

Two plays in the first day.

Going with Colorado State plus 3 against Fresno in the New Mexico Bowl. Yes, it will be a half-empty (or more?) stadium and this quite possibly is the worst of the 34 matchups (though don't worry, I can think of 6-7 more bad ones off the top of my head)...

Let's be honest, Steve Fairchild did a great job this year. I really thought Sonny got the short end of the stick, but maybe he was past his prime when the CSU admin sorta forced him out.

Give the bowl game credit for getting the two former WAC opponents out together again; they played about every year from 1992-1998.

With the win in Laramie in the on Nov. 22, the Rams got to six wins and would seem to be the far more excited squad to play in this one. Any "BCS" hopes that Fresno had went up in flames early in September, and the Bulldogs didn't bother to cover the spread until well after the presidential election after that loss.

The Bulldogs have a little more talent, but their passing game had all sorts of problems in the season finale at Boise, where they were ran out of town, 61-10. Expect Pat Hill's potential search for a better job to also inhibit short bowl preparations. The right price is closer to a pick.

Prediction: Colorado State 34, Fresno 27
The play: Colly State +3.

One more play on day 1, and it's also a situational deal. South Florida had high hopes for its season when it beat Kansas in exciting fashion back in September. But things unraveled for them in a hurry. USF's 13-7 setback in Morgantown was its fifth loss in seven games. USF opened the season with five straight wins and was ranked in the top 10.

They are playing this game 32 miles from the Tampa campus - so it's almost a home game, which I believe was accounted for when making this line. But it's during winter break, so the student attendance will be next to nothing for this one.

Meanwhile, the Tigers (6-6) recovered from an 0-3 start and a slew of injuries to become bowl eligible for the fifth time in six years. Memphis also will battle a BCS team for the first time in postseason play. In previous postseason games the Tigers have played a hodgepodge of Sun Belt and MAC schools.

''I'm extremely proud of our team ... (but) I'm also proud of our administration for working it out to where we become only the second team in our league that will get an opportunity to play against a BCS school,'' West said. ''That was our (primary) reason for lobbying for St. Pete because I wanted the opportunity to play against a BCS team. We've got that now.''

You tell me who wants to play in this game. I've got the teams about 8 points different on a neutral field. Maybe make it 11? Worst-case scenario is the final I come up with below...

Prediction: South Florida 24, Memphis 13.
The play: Memphis plus 13 for a medium bet. Also going UNDER 52 for a medium bet.

GL... and will add more of them as the time passes and I dig in a bit deeper.

The other bets (will add writeups later)....

Troy/Southern Miss UNDER 56 for a medium bet.

Hawaii -1 for a medium bet.

Florida Atlantic/Central Mich OVER 61 for a big bet.

Florida State -4 for a medium bet.

North Carolina State +7 for a big bet.

Northwestern +13.5 for a medium bet.

Western Mich/Rice OVER 71 for a medium bet.

Pittsburgh +3 for a medium bet.

Boston College -4 +104 for a medium bet.

Kansas -10 for a small bet.

Georgia Tech -3.5 for a big bet.

Iowa -3 -115 for a medium bet.

East Carolina -2 for a medium bet.

Utah +11 for a big bet.

Buffalo +4.5 for a small bet.

Ball State -2.5 and OVER 76 for medium bets.

Waiting on Oklahoma to continue to go up...but in the meantime, OVER 71 for a big bet in the BCS Title game...



:cheers:
 
Good luck, Rexy.

Like the BC and CMU sides (although you're taking the over in the Motor City). What do you think about CMU only laying 6' in this one and essentially playing at home in an empty Ford Field?
 
The Central line got jacked way up. I made them higher and they will have more fans, RJ, but I don't like giving up 56 to Eastern Michigan. That's a case of not showing much resolve or character, not bouncing back after the Ball State loss...

Records were broken that day. Hard to convince me to lay it after losing $ on the Chips that day.

Jimbo - I'll be there soon. Prolly Saturday or early next week...

Thanks Brar. GL...
 
Hear ya about CMU not giving a shit against EMU. Think they right the ship? It's only a TD.

I don't know if I trust FAU to put up enough offense to cover the over in that one.

I made the line CMU -10 so I like the value and think you may be overreacting.

Also made the line BC -9 so that one is the other game jumping off the page.
 
HUNTDOG said:
Did you factor in the backup RJ? (BC)
Click to expand...

Good point. I'll look at that a little more.

Not sure it's going to make much difference. This game will be won by the defense. Both BC QBs have been average at best and not impressive.

Shit, the starter has a 10/13 ratio.
 
Can't wait for the ncst thoughts. Team is on a mission right now ... but so is rutgers of late.

i rarely , i f ever , go over a nuymber in the seventies but that rice/wmich game has to be high scoring unless its in the houston rain.
 
nice thread, rex. leaning NCST's way as well.

sure, both teams are rolling into this bowl. but teel is still a question, imo. that was a shell of a louisville secondary he was throwing on the other week.
 
They've got catfish on the table
They've got gospel in the air
And Reverend Green be glad to see you
When you haven't got a prayer
But boy you've got a prayer in Memphis :prayer

Really dont want to be humming " Tommy can you hear me " during this one...like the Tigers here also Rex....gl :shake:
 
Thanks fellas...

First, the Utah/Bammer thoughts - copied from the other thread...

BAR pointed out several that Utah 'coulda lost'... but they didn't.

VK sounded still bitter about the TCU game. Same deal - coulda lost 2-3 times but refused to quit. (that is not a personal attack Kyle, just an observation)..

Not disagreeing with you guys. But sheez - it's like a slap in the face to make that team a 10-point dog or more. The true line (well, my fuckin line, haha) is 4 or 4.5.

Look at some of Bammer's wins - Kentucky by 3, Ole Miss by 4, and LSU by 6. Not exactly dominant performances against great teams. In fact, if it's possible, they played the 'weakest' schedule of any SEC (drawing UK, Tennessee and a soft-ass Jorja team from the East)....

Utah might not win it on the field but how can they catch DD's? It looks like stealing to me.
 
Admittedly bitter still , you caught me. It may take me until next august to forget that game.

Nice marc cohn reference in post 12 as well.

I see you like your boys to bounce back in the bowl. How do you see that one playing out ?
 
vk - They were the dominant team in the game, actually. Those two turnovers taken back for scores literally added up to a 28-point swing.

All the talk about not going out to Boise to play in the bowl weighed them down, as did the talks about Hoke leaving. That Detroit game was a fluke, nothing more, nothing less. I see them having a better chance to slow Tulsa down than vice versa.
 
Adding Wake Forest after seeing Vanzack's thread...

Wake had a jillion turnovers the first time and were in a flat spot. Grobe is a great coach an with ample time to prepare for the option, I expect the Wake defense to step up and shut down the Naval Academy.

I am a bit concerned with Wake's inability to score through long stretches and Navy did pitch two straight shutouts against NIU and Army to end the season. That said, I think Wake is in a different class than that bunch and those shutouts only add value to the Wake side.

The play: Wake -2.5 for a medium bet. I would lay 3 even or -105 (easily available everywhere) for a smaller bet...

GL...
 
already got colo st. locked in but write up made me alot more confident about my play...thanks CKR
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Adding Wake Forest after seeing Vanzack's thread...

Wake had a jillion turnovers the first time and were in a flat spot. Grobe is a great coach an with ample time to prepare for the option, I expect the Wake defense to step up and shut down the Naval Academy.

I am a bit concerned with Wake's inability to score through long stretches and Navy did pitch two straight shutouts against NIU and Army to end the season. That said, I think Wake is in a different class than that bunch and those shutouts only add value to the Wake side.

The play: Wake -2.5 for a medium bet. I would lay 3 even or -105 (easily available everywhere) for a smaller bet...

GL...
Click to expand...

A shout out from CKR? Im honored - even though we have had very little direct interaction you are one of the very few that I read and look forward to every week of NCAAF season. You are much better at handicapping than I am and I mean that honestly.

I infer from your posts that you are in the industry on the "other side of the desk" - where do you think this wake line is going? I was surprised today - I put a 10K (limit) bet at pinny on them and it went from -102 to -106 which is a pretty big move for a bet that size. That makes me speculate that there isnt much navy support out there - or maybe it is just the fact that the game is 3 days away? Im looking to get more down and dont know whether to wait it out or get it now.....

GL
 
Van - I'm not sure what amounts you get down there - I do know that they chopped my limits on the college basketball totals to where it's not worth it for me to bet there anymore - they are the last place I will go to finish my order... A 4-cent move on a 10K bet is actually less than I thought they would do. With the game being 3 days away still, I would have moved it more aggressively if I were even to the game.

It all depends on who Walters bets on as far as the line moving - remember how key '3' is and that it just doesn't budge off that number very often unless the market is only betting one way. This looks to be a 2-way game. A guy in Vegas I respect made the game '5' and a lot of the time the line moves his way so gun to my head, I say the favorite gets bet up to 3.5 is a better bet than it going down to 2.5 or less...

:shake:
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Van - I'm not sure what amounts you get down there - I do know that they chopped my limits on the college basketball totals to where it's not worth it for me to bet there anymore - they are the last place I will go to finish my order... A 4-cent move on a 10K bet is actually less than I thought they would do. With the game being 3 days away still, I would have moved it more aggressively if I were even to the game.

It all depends on who Walters bets on as far as the line moving - remember how key '3' is and that it just doesn't budge off that number very often unless the market is only betting one way. This looks to be a 2-way game. A guy in Vegas I respect made the game '5' and a lot of the time the line moves his way so gun to my head, I say the favorite gets bet up to 3.5 is a better bet than it going down to 2.5 or less...

:shake:
Click to expand...

Thx...

Gonna watch and wait...

:cheers:
 
Sir Rex,
Can you provide an opinion on the ND/Haw total? 48 seems low to me. ND's def is worse than Cincy's and with the drama big charlie has went thru it is expected ND will pull out all the stops to score (and win - which i am not convinced they can). Hawaii can score and this will be a home game for them. Thanks for your effort. BTW - can we expect to see you in the niffel during playoff time? thanks again !!
 
Goob - I will drop in with some Niffel insight during the playoffs and maybe even before.

Notre Dame's offense has been woefully inept all season and I don't see that changing now. Their defense plays hard.

Hawaii's offense doesn't resemble last year's unit, though it has gotten better since the coach found the right QB. The total looks about right to me - maybe a smidge low but not enough for me to get excited about betting...

GL...
 
hey rexy ...

wondering if the big money is in yet or if it is still on the sidelines ? should we be expecting big moves from here ?
 
VK - To be honest, there hasn't been a flood of wiseguy money as of yet on any of these games. I would expect Walters to start getting involved this morning.

Lean to BYU in the late game and am pondering a play there plus-4. Anyone care to talk me off?

GL today....
 
Does BYU have as good of a team as they did the past two years they've faced the Wildcats? Once in Tucson, once in Provo...

Because the Wildcats are certainly better than their previous two teams, and Willie looked nasty against ASU (he shouldn't be scared to face BYU again)...

Does BYU want to be in the same old bowl again? Arizona has sold out their 9,500 tickets...but do they want to be there (most likely yes, first bowl game ever for these guys)?

Not trying to talk you out of it...Just posting/asking some things to see what type of response they get

I have no strong opinion on the game, but someone had to have pounded Arizona for it to go to 3.5 right (reading what you said about lines budging off 3 earlier)? I saw 3 everywhere...and was sure BYU was a big public play
 
Nice cover on Wake even if you share the glory with Vanzack! Very unlikely backdoor cover but we all know it's better to be lucky than good! Have a happy holiday!

:cheers:

Still can't believe this one.
 
At the risk of being redundant I think congrats are in order for your Colly State pick. Not everyone loved that pick but it turned out to be money. This time you were more good than lucky. Just missed hitting the exact score!
:cheers: :cheers:
You got your capping gift working today and it's a thing of beauty!
PS Maybe you remember about 2 months ago you wrote me a P.M. with some good advice concerning a bookeeping error in my favor.. It turned out I later won some decent money that could easily been confiscated had I not listened to your counsel and made things correct. I thank you for helping me to see the big picture instead of going for the quick fix. I think I knew what the right thing to do was but I guess I needed a push from someone who I trust and respect.
BOL Rexy
 
CKR I remembered reading your thread when you first posted the Coly St W/U,
...hit ML and game. Thanks Man.
 
Thanks fellas.

Passing the Vegas Bowl. Good two-way game for the store (as was the Memphis fiasco) so I'll just watch. There is a decent move on BYU here late that I'm trying to figure out who is in charge of.

Never got to take 4, so I passed.

GL fellas...
 
Good call, BC.

Last night's game was more exciting than I originally anticipated.

Tomorrow's should be a thriller. I don't like the way everyone has discounted Boise. For Christ's sakes I know they've played a weak schedule and all, but it's not an accident that they're undefeated.

Let's see what happens with this line. I might be adding a play on the Broncos, as I'm writing a ton of business on TCU and very little on the other side...
 
CKR,

i'd love to see you on Boise. I'm praying i see 3.5 but until then i'm sitting out and contemplating a ML play.

good luck and i'm glad to see you on Georgia Tech with me
 
Added Boise State +3.5.

Look, I realize TCU is from the better league. But when all these suckers and pseudo-wiseguys just plow into me (admittedly I held 2.5 when the world was at 3 until I got to a position I wanted) makes me think that the dog has to be the right side. It's on green grass and not blue turf, but I'll take a stab at the Broncs in what should be a close, low-scoring game.

Prediction: Boise 20, TCU 17
The play: Boise plus 3.5 for a medium bet.

GL....
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Added Boise State +3.5.

Look, I realize TCU is from the better league. But when all these suckers and pseudo-wiseguys just plow into me (admittedly I held 2.5 when the world was at 3 until I got to a position I wanted) makes me think that the dog has to be the right side. It's on green grass and not blue turf, but I'll take a stab at the Broncs in what should be a close, low-scoring game.

Prediction: Boise 20, TCU 17
The play: Boise plus 3.5 for a medium bet.

GL....
Click to expand...


Certainly a big difference between 2.5 and 3.5.

Do you think this gets pushed back to 3 everywhere or continues upward all the way to kickoff ?
 
here was my response to VK in the basketball in-game thread...

'Hey Kyle. Looks like we're heads up on the Boise game. Just could not resist taking 3.5 in a game that looks like a coin flip to me at worst.

It's painted 3.5 now. I am still using 3 -15... I am thinking there will be money for the dog later this afternoon. I have yet to see any '4's pop up, which tells me Billy might not be involved. (I would think he'd have a beard out laying it to try to get some people to go to 4 to really slam into the dog)...

Can't really tell you. I was 50-50 on whether this game would ever hit '3', and I never thought it would get to 3.5 - so my opinion on this game and its line movement has been garbage thus far.'
 
I'm still very confused with this line... I believe a good defense will usually win the game (TCU) but at 3.5 it seems like a gift. Begging for Boise takers I'm taking the bait....Go Boise + 3.5
 
Sarcastic Sword said:
Boise backers were fortunate....472 yards to 250 yds - after the first 5 minutes, TCU controlled the game - just didnt get the money
Click to expand...

That has happened before with TCU, I do believe.
I'm just happy to have stayed on the sidelines in this one.
 
Nice playRex. Boise attempted some strange plays to ruin a F.G. chance that would have put them up by two scores in the 4th. I know TCU has a good defense but Boise went from around the TCU 20(after a big play) to the 35 or so and punted. To go up by nine in this kind of game would have been huge. The coaching decisions really baffled me. Why throw a pass/lateral for -8 on first down? Why throw at all? It just makes me wonder. Oh well I can't complain. A win is still a win.
 
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