Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
:shake:
i've got 5 left, lol. something tells me i don't make it thru them all.
'13/'14 Bowl Season
- Thread starter Yanks27Sox9
- Start date
:shake:
i've got 5 left, lol. something tells me i don't make it thru them all.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
fourth addition of the night...
Holiday Bowl, 12/30
Arizona St (-14) @ -105 for .8
another big favorite...yikes. my PR #s made ASU a 14 pt fav here, but there were obviously enough reasons to get me onto this side.
first, Graham's a solid bowl coach. conversely, i'm not sure what to make of Kingsbury. yes, this his is virgin bowl appearance...but i'm way more concerned with the dysfunction there. their season went completely into the shitter with 5 straight losses, then their QB bails. whatever is going on, it's obviously not good...and i can't imagine the team's very focused.
as for the on paper match-up...ASU's the #47 rushing offense, and Grice should play...where Tech is the #92 ranked rushing defense. Tech can't run the ball, as they've got the #108 ranked rushing offense...where ASU greatly improved over the year, and ended up with the #32 ranked rushing defense. Tech does have the #2 ranked passing offense...but with the changes/dysfunction, will that suffer? in any case, ASU's #38 in pass efficiency defense...and with Kelly, boasts the #29 passing offense as well. in any case, ASU has the better defense...doesn't need to worry about the run all that much...and should be able to run it up on Tech, via ground & air, as many others have of late.
on top of that, and beyond any dysfunction for Tech, there are 3 large discrepancies between these teams to note. of course, one is SOS...ASU at #6, and TT at #61. another is TO margin...ASU was +14, where TT was -13. and lastly, considering the passing offenses, are defensive sacks...ASU registered 40, where Tech only had 21.
it's a lot of points to lay...in a bowl where dogs traditionally bark...but add it all together, and i just see a focused, well coached ASU team blowing out Texas Tech tomorrow.
Holiday Bowl, 12/30
Arizona St (-14) @ -105 for .8
another big favorite...yikes. my PR #s made ASU a 14 pt fav here, but there were obviously enough reasons to get me onto this side.
first, Graham's a solid bowl coach. conversely, i'm not sure what to make of Kingsbury. yes, this his is virgin bowl appearance...but i'm way more concerned with the dysfunction there. their season went completely into the shitter with 5 straight losses, then their QB bails. whatever is going on, it's obviously not good...and i can't imagine the team's very focused.
as for the on paper match-up...ASU's the #47 rushing offense, and Grice should play...where Tech is the #92 ranked rushing defense. Tech can't run the ball, as they've got the #108 ranked rushing offense...where ASU greatly improved over the year, and ended up with the #32 ranked rushing defense. Tech does have the #2 ranked passing offense...but with the changes/dysfunction, will that suffer? in any case, ASU's #38 in pass efficiency defense...and with Kelly, boasts the #29 passing offense as well. in any case, ASU has the better defense...doesn't need to worry about the run all that much...and should be able to run it up on Tech, via ground & air, as many others have of late.
on top of that, and beyond any dysfunction for Tech, there are 3 large discrepancies between these teams to note. of course, one is SOS...ASU at #6, and TT at #61. another is TO margin...ASU was +14, where TT was -13. and lastly, considering the passing offenses, are defensive sacks...ASU registered 40, where Tech only had 21.
it's a lot of points to lay...in a bowl where dogs traditionally bark...but add it all together, and i just see a focused, well coached ASU team blowing out Texas Tech tomorrow.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
You can do it
halfway there, so prolly not.
thanks, bud...appreciate it. 4-4, damn...
halfway there, so prolly not.
thanks, bud...appreciate it. 4-4, damn...
Making me feel old
...I was 26 you were still half of sharks age when we started all this...hehe...
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
doubling up for tuesday's bowls, so the 5th & 6th additions of the night...
AdvoCare V100 Bowl, 12/31
Arizona (-7) @ -120 for 1/2
Sun Bowl, 12/31
UCLA (-7) @ -110 for .7
i'm sure it seems that way...but no, i didn't intentionally go all Pac-12. however, that said, i will admit that UCLA was a homer play. the Sun Bowl is as big of a bowl for dogs that exists, bottom line. and tbh, i intended to back VT here...but in the end, fwiw, i just couldn't do it.
my PR #s made Zona a 9 pt fav over BC, so there's a bit of value imo. the SOS advantage goes to Arizona, 29 to 59...Arizona has the better rushing offense, #11 to #20...the better passing offense, even with Denker...the better pass efficiency defense, #40 to #104...and they give up .3 ypp less than BC does defensively.
the only advantage BC has on paper is rushing defense, as they're #52 to Zona's #70. and that's my concern, which is why this is only a half play...because Williams is every bit the beast carrying the rock as Carey is on the other side. BC also gets after the QB with 35 sacks on the season.
anyhow, just see Arizona has the better overall team...and with Williams dinged, a small play was in order.
like i said, the sun bowl is typically for the dogs. but after last year's humiliation in the bowl against baylor, i just can't see another flat effort from the Bruins. and Beamer's got a losing bowl record, btw...having dropped 2 of his L3.
my PR #s made UCLA an 8 pt favorite, fwiw. SOS is basically equal...#26 for UCLA and #20 for VT. but the tale of the tape comes down to UCLA has the much better offense here, while VT has the much better defense. but short of turnovers, assuming the o-line holds up relatively well considering the talented opposition, VT's defense can't score points.
UCLA is 1.1 more ypp on offense than VT, where VT allows .8 ypp less on defense. UCLA is the #36 rushing offense and the #43 passing offense, compared to VT with the #111 rushing offense and the #54 passing offense. conversely, VT has the #8 rushing defense and the #3 pass efficiency defense...compared to UCLA with the #73 rushing defense and the #60 pass efficiency defense. so just by all that, it's somewhere between a wash and advantage VT, considering that solid Hokie defense.
but look deeper into the match-up. VT can't run the ball, and Logan Thomas isn't a deep ball threat...that isn't their game. UCLA's strength on defense is their linebackers...and especially w/out a significant running threat, they'll do very well (as they normally do) against the medium-range pass. just can't see VT's offense having much success at all against the Bruin's defense. and even though the Hokie defense is excellent, i think they'll wear down...and the more talented Bruin offense will break thru with some big plays...so i bucked the dog trend in the Sun Bowl, and took my Bruins. in a way, it's a similar defensive match-up as USC was...in terms of the d-line. obviously VT's secondary is better than USC's. but conversely, USC's offense is way better than VT's...with a great running game, and a deep ball threat.
Go, Bruins!!!
AdvoCare V100 Bowl, 12/31
Arizona (-7) @ -120 for 1/2
Sun Bowl, 12/31
UCLA (-7) @ -110 for .7
i'm sure it seems that way...but no, i didn't intentionally go all Pac-12. however, that said, i will admit that UCLA was a homer play. the Sun Bowl is as big of a bowl for dogs that exists, bottom line. and tbh, i intended to back VT here...but in the end, fwiw, i just couldn't do it.
my PR #s made Zona a 9 pt fav over BC, so there's a bit of value imo. the SOS advantage goes to Arizona, 29 to 59...Arizona has the better rushing offense, #11 to #20...the better passing offense, even with Denker...the better pass efficiency defense, #40 to #104...and they give up .3 ypp less than BC does defensively.
the only advantage BC has on paper is rushing defense, as they're #52 to Zona's #70. and that's my concern, which is why this is only a half play...because Williams is every bit the beast carrying the rock as Carey is on the other side. BC also gets after the QB with 35 sacks on the season.
anyhow, just see Arizona has the better overall team...and with Williams dinged, a small play was in order.
like i said, the sun bowl is typically for the dogs. but after last year's humiliation in the bowl against baylor, i just can't see another flat effort from the Bruins. and Beamer's got a losing bowl record, btw...having dropped 2 of his L3.
my PR #s made UCLA an 8 pt favorite, fwiw. SOS is basically equal...#26 for UCLA and #20 for VT. but the tale of the tape comes down to UCLA has the much better offense here, while VT has the much better defense. but short of turnovers, assuming the o-line holds up relatively well considering the talented opposition, VT's defense can't score points.
UCLA is 1.1 more ypp on offense than VT, where VT allows .8 ypp less on defense. UCLA is the #36 rushing offense and the #43 passing offense, compared to VT with the #111 rushing offense and the #54 passing offense. conversely, VT has the #8 rushing defense and the #3 pass efficiency defense...compared to UCLA with the #73 rushing defense and the #60 pass efficiency defense. so just by all that, it's somewhere between a wash and advantage VT, considering that solid Hokie defense.
but look deeper into the match-up. VT can't run the ball, and Logan Thomas isn't a deep ball threat...that isn't their game. UCLA's strength on defense is their linebackers...and especially w/out a significant running threat, they'll do very well (as they normally do) against the medium-range pass. just can't see VT's offense having much success at all against the Bruin's defense. and even though the Hokie defense is excellent, i think they'll wear down...and the more talented Bruin offense will break thru with some big plays...so i bucked the dog trend in the Sun Bowl, and took my Bruins. in a way, it's a similar defensive match-up as USC was...in terms of the d-line. obviously VT's secondary is better than USC's. but conversely, USC's offense is way better than VT's...with a great running game, and a deep ball threat.
Go, Bruins!!!
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
Making me feel old
you feel old? :rofl:
gotdamned midlife crisis time...need a career change, and a whole bunch of other stuff that i'm not gonna mention here lol.
remember how i used to say that variety is the spice of life though. been too bland in my 40s, that's for sure.
I know man...always remember that stuff...
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
finally the last two, so the 7th & 8th additions of the night...
Liberty Bowl, 12/31
Mississippi St (-7) @ +100 for 1/2
Chick-fil-A Bowl, 12/31
Duke(+18.5) to Duke/A&M ov68.5 for .77 to win .70
like i started tonight with...too many favs for the late december bowls, as the Liberty is traditionally for the doggies too. but what can i say, other than that's how i capped them.
a half play on Messy St, despite my better judgement...and again, going against somewhat of a one-dimensional team. my PR #s made Messy St a 5 pt favorite, so there's no line value for my side. and yes, on some level, i'm probably thinking that a decent SEC team can't lose this game...which brings me back to SOS. huge discrepancy, as MSU was #4 to Rice's #107.
Rice can run it, as the #15 rushing attack...but they're only the #101 passing offense. An SEC defense with a decent bowl history should be able to handle that. And with Prescott at QB, Messy St should be able to take advantage of some holes in Rice's defense. anyhow, running outta steam at 3am...so just a small play based on the above.
my PR #s made A&M a 9.5 favorite over Duke. A&M has the SOS advantage, #18 to #68...and the better offense, especially thru the air. it's not saying much, considering, but Duke has the better (statistical) defense. A&M gains 1.5 more ypp on offense than Duke, but Duke allows .5 ypp less defensively.
Duke's leading rusher is out, but A&M's leading tackler is out. Sumlin's a solid bowl coach, but not sure how motivated A&M will be as a whole. conversely, Duke's been fairly poor in bowls...but expect them to be highly motivated here. hopefully, johnny football has been living large...enjoying his last bowl experience.
anyhow, to keep it short, wanted the dog here...but needed more points to do it, so i teased the spread above 18 with the over...as both teams should be scoring in bunches. the LV opener for the total was 67, and it steamed all the way up to 75 or 75.5 at the various shops...so obviously many are thinking similarly when it comes to the score.
Liberty Bowl, 12/31
Mississippi St (-7) @ +100 for 1/2
Chick-fil-A Bowl, 12/31
Duke(+18.5) to Duke/A&M ov68.5 for .77 to win .70
like i started tonight with...too many favs for the late december bowls, as the Liberty is traditionally for the doggies too. but what can i say, other than that's how i capped them.
a half play on Messy St, despite my better judgement...and again, going against somewhat of a one-dimensional team. my PR #s made Messy St a 5 pt favorite, so there's no line value for my side. and yes, on some level, i'm probably thinking that a decent SEC team can't lose this game...which brings me back to SOS. huge discrepancy, as MSU was #4 to Rice's #107.
Rice can run it, as the #15 rushing attack...but they're only the #101 passing offense. An SEC defense with a decent bowl history should be able to handle that. And with Prescott at QB, Messy St should be able to take advantage of some holes in Rice's defense. anyhow, running outta steam at 3am...so just a small play based on the above.
my PR #s made A&M a 9.5 favorite over Duke. A&M has the SOS advantage, #18 to #68...and the better offense, especially thru the air. it's not saying much, considering, but Duke has the better (statistical) defense. A&M gains 1.5 more ypp on offense than Duke, but Duke allows .5 ypp less defensively.
Duke's leading rusher is out, but A&M's leading tackler is out. Sumlin's a solid bowl coach, but not sure how motivated A&M will be as a whole. conversely, Duke's been fairly poor in bowls...but expect them to be highly motivated here. hopefully, johnny football has been living large...enjoying his last bowl experience.
anyhow, to keep it short, wanted the dog here...but needed more points to do it, so i teased the spread above 18 with the over...as both teams should be scoring in bunches. the LV opener for the total was 67, and it steamed all the way up to 75 or 75.5 at the various shops...so obviously many are thinking similarly when it comes to the score.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
and that completes December...23 bowls, and 26 plays...all with small write-ups, lol.
:sleepy:
like i said, might have a prop or two (maybe a team total) to add later via my phone...but will be back before the January bowls begin, and add them as well.
Happy New Year, boys. :cheers:
:sleepy:
like i said, might have a prop or two (maybe a team total) to add later via my phone...but will be back before the January bowls begin, and add them as well.
Happy New Year, boys. :cheers:
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
yep. and amazing how long it's been since we started all this. :shake:
at least their always LJC's threads so i can imagine some variety, hehe.
enjoy NYE, bro! as usual, i'm gonna try to hit an indian casino for some poker tonight...get drunk...and try to stay outta trouble...then drink & watch football on NYE at home w/ the family.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
thanks, Marlo. :shake:
for a 44th, i guess it was as good as could be expected.
thank you, sir. appreciate that. :cheers:
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
haven't been on since late night 12/29, which was a marathon posting session lol, so reflecting back on those 8 plays which closed out december.
MTST = gotta admit that i was surprised by how poorly Kilgore looked/played. he was garbage, and Navy pulled away late. so much for that motivation angle...i was wrong.
Ole Miss = nice win, but should've been a blowout.
Oregon = same thing...should've been an absolute blowout. i hit a prop here as well, but didn't post, so obviously won't count it. but mariota rushing yards over 59.5 was like taking candy from a baby, knowing his knee was better heading into the game.
ASU = wtf was that? first off, i was under the impression that grice would play...based upon graham's comments. but that's the danger of playing it early. had i known, tbh, not sure what i would've done with this game. in any case, i wouldn't have backed TT. they were supposedly a train wreck heading into the bowl...which obviously wasn't the case in hindsight.
ASU seemed unprepared though. and based upon comments afterwards, i wonder if they were expecting Grice...then when he couldn't/didn't go, they just weren't prepared.
either way, they played like a joke...as they're so much better than that. but oh, well, shit happens. they did it to themselves...TT just totally capitalized on it.
so Monday finished 2-2, down .09 of a unit...kinda disappointing.
Arizona = beautiful blowout.
UCLA = beautiful blowout...after it looked like they were gonna do their best (along with the refs) to keep VT in the game.
Messy St = beautiful blowout.
Duke/over teaser = TBD
so 3-0 on Tuesday, with the late game pending. took too many favs, for the time of year, but the capping was sound. just wish i wasn't playing the bowls so conservatively, unit-wise, lol.
anyhow, pulling for my teaser to hit in the night cap. but thru the 1st 22 bowls, now there are 3 to 4 games/plays i'd take back in hindsight...buffalo, miami, mtst, and maybe asu (w/out grice).
lastly, very nice to see the Pac-12 sitting at 6-2 SU & ATS so far!!! :badass:
i've got no explanation for ASU shitting the bed, as Graham's better than that. but there was obviously something that went sideways. can only assume it was grice, as he's a necessity for their offense to work correctly. and we all know that Leach fucked up by not kneeling out the clock. in any event, with a record 9 bowl teams, it's been a successful bowl season for the conference. just hope that more talent will follow Mariota's lead, and return for 2014...like Hundley, to name one, lol.
anyhow, will be back sometime tonight to add the six 1/1/14 bowl games.
have a safe & happy NYE, boys. :cheers:
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
from your mouth to God's ears, my friend... :shake:
B
bamabradley2424
Guest
great run yesterday yanks. Cant wait to see what u r playing for today. I gotta get my bets in early since I am at work and need to get some zzzzz'ss lol
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
a NYE sweep...4-0, 2.40 to the good...so 17-8-1 bowling, +4.40 units, heading into january.
gonna just throw up my 6 plays for tomorrow, then see if i can do any short write-ups. already 2:30am, so tbh it's unlikely.
what can i say? birthday stuff yesterday, and new year's eve festivities today, then had to have the wifey polish the hardware. just not the usual time for ctg, lol.
anyhow, hope you all had a good time tonight...and enjoy the bowls manana. :shake:
gonna just throw up my 6 plays for tomorrow, then see if i can do any short write-ups. already 2:30am, so tbh it's unlikely.
what can i say? birthday stuff yesterday, and new year's eve festivities today, then had to have the wifey polish the hardware. just not the usual time for ctg, lol.
anyhow, hope you all had a good time tonight...and enjoy the bowls manana. :shake:
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
not much i'm in love with for tomorrow, and it obviously won't be as good as today. i also feel like i may be reaching too far with some of these, in that i'm going against the SEC in 3 games...backing teams from an inferior conference, while even going against my SOS guidelines in 2 of the cases. not the best recipe for success, tbh...but again, that's how i capped them. just hope it doesn't bite me in the ass, lol.
anyhow, here are the 6 additions for new year's day...
Gator Bowl, 1/1
Nebraska (+9) @ -105 for .6
Heart of Dallas Bowl, 1/1
N Texas (-6.5) @ -105 for .6
Outback Bowl, 1/1
Iowa (+8) @ -105 for .6
Capital One Bowl, 1/1
Wisconsin (-2) @ -105 for .6
Rose Bowl, 1/1
Stanford (-6) @ -120 for 3/4
Fiesta Bowl, 1/1
Baylor(-9.5) to UCF/Baylor ov63 for .90 to win 3/4
in case i'm not successful with quick write-ups, i will say that the line has been begging you to back the Spartans all week. no can do.
and yes, backing both nebraska and iowa was like throwing up in my mouth.
Happy New Year :cheers:
anyhow, here are the 6 additions for new year's day...
Gator Bowl, 1/1
Nebraska (+9) @ -105 for .6
Heart of Dallas Bowl, 1/1
N Texas (-6.5) @ -105 for .6
Outback Bowl, 1/1
Iowa (+8) @ -105 for .6
Capital One Bowl, 1/1
Wisconsin (-2) @ -105 for .6
Rose Bowl, 1/1
Stanford (-6) @ -120 for 3/4
Fiesta Bowl, 1/1
Baylor(-9.5) to UCF/Baylor ov63 for .90 to win 3/4
in case i'm not successful with quick write-ups, i will say that the line has been begging you to back the Spartans all week. no can do.
and yes, backing both nebraska and iowa was like throwing up in my mouth.
Happy New Year :cheers:
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
first this...
Gator Bowl, 1/1
Nebraska (+9) @ -105 for .6
Georgia stats = #7 SOS, #57 rush off, #16 pass off, #42 rush def, #84 pass efficiency def, -6 TO margin, 6.6 ypp on offense, 5.4 ypp on defense, and 32 defensive sacks.
Nebraska stats = #78 SOS, #19 rush off, #93 pass off, #59 rush def, #42 pass efficiency def, -12 TO margin, 5.2 ypp on offense, 4.9 ypp on defense, and 35 defensive sacks.
going against such a SOS disparity leaves me tasting that bile i had mentioned. and fwiw, my PR #s made UGA a 9.5 pt favorite here. add in the recent bowl history, and it's just more to make me uneasy with this play. nebby's lost their L3 bowls, Bo's a d-bag, and Richt is 8-4 bowling. btw, this is a rematch of last year's bowl game for these 2 teams...which obviously UGA won.
so a huge SOS disparity...yet Nebraska does have the better rushing offense, they allow .5 less ypp defensively than UGA, and they have the better pass efficiency defense. it's a start, but not enough to justify the play. so why?
bottom line...with both Aaron Murray and Taylor Martinez out...in a game where both Abdullah and Gurley should be fed the rock time and time again...i simply felt like it was too many points. in other words, with the unknowns at QB for both sides...and considering the 2 great RBs...i found value in anything over a TD. i may be wrong, but i was willing to take that chance here.
also, Nebraska gets just about all of their o-line back healthy for this game. i watched Georgia struggle defensively too often this season as well, and now they lose their strong safety. think they've given up 30+ points 8 times this season...and that's in 12 total games...in a schedule that included UNT, Appy St, Kentucky, & Vandy. anyhow, hopefully the cornhuskers can keep it close...at least 1 less TD than last year's bowl loss to UGA.
Gator Bowl, 1/1
Nebraska (+9) @ -105 for .6
Georgia stats = #7 SOS, #57 rush off, #16 pass off, #42 rush def, #84 pass efficiency def, -6 TO margin, 6.6 ypp on offense, 5.4 ypp on defense, and 32 defensive sacks.
Nebraska stats = #78 SOS, #19 rush off, #93 pass off, #59 rush def, #42 pass efficiency def, -12 TO margin, 5.2 ypp on offense, 4.9 ypp on defense, and 35 defensive sacks.
going against such a SOS disparity leaves me tasting that bile i had mentioned. and fwiw, my PR #s made UGA a 9.5 pt favorite here. add in the recent bowl history, and it's just more to make me uneasy with this play. nebby's lost their L3 bowls, Bo's a d-bag, and Richt is 8-4 bowling. btw, this is a rematch of last year's bowl game for these 2 teams...which obviously UGA won.
so a huge SOS disparity...yet Nebraska does have the better rushing offense, they allow .5 less ypp defensively than UGA, and they have the better pass efficiency defense. it's a start, but not enough to justify the play. so why?
bottom line...with both Aaron Murray and Taylor Martinez out...in a game where both Abdullah and Gurley should be fed the rock time and time again...i simply felt like it was too many points. in other words, with the unknowns at QB for both sides...and considering the 2 great RBs...i found value in anything over a TD. i may be wrong, but i was willing to take that chance here.
also, Nebraska gets just about all of their o-line back healthy for this game. i watched Georgia struggle defensively too often this season as well, and now they lose their strong safety. think they've given up 30+ points 8 times this season...and that's in 12 total games...in a schedule that included UNT, Appy St, Kentucky, & Vandy. anyhow, hopefully the cornhuskers can keep it close...at least 1 less TD than last year's bowl loss to UGA.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
second this...
Heart of Dallas Bowl, 1/1
N Texas (-6.5) @ -105 for .6
UNT stats = #96 SOS, #48 rush off, #67 pass off, #19 rush def, #29 pass efficiency def, +10 TO margin, 5.6 ypp on offense, 5.0 ypp on defense, and 34 defensive sacks.
UNLV stats = #102 SOS, #52 rush off, #52 pass off, #110 rush def, #27 pass efficiency def, +6 TO margin, 5.4 ypp on offense, 5.8 ypp on defense, and 20 defensive sacks.
UNT's the better 'on paper' team in every way except passing offense. fwiw, my PR #s made UNT a 6 pt favorite...but that's not giving them anything for HFA, which they should get something for due to the location/lack of distance. anyways, what i hate statistically about this match-up for UNLV is twofold. first, they allow .8 ypp more than UNT does defensively. and two, #110 in rushing defense...with a POS strength of schedule...is absurd. on top of that, speaking of defenses, UNT is 6th in the nation when it comes to red zone defense.
as for motivation, both teams will/should be up. UNLV hasn't bowled since 2000, and UNT hasn't bowled since 2004. so when it comes to a rare bowl appearance for both these teams, i had to back simply the better (more balanced) team on paper.
kinda shocking to have a these kinda teams playing on January 1st, huh?
Heart of Dallas Bowl, 1/1
N Texas (-6.5) @ -105 for .6
UNT stats = #96 SOS, #48 rush off, #67 pass off, #19 rush def, #29 pass efficiency def, +10 TO margin, 5.6 ypp on offense, 5.0 ypp on defense, and 34 defensive sacks.
UNLV stats = #102 SOS, #52 rush off, #52 pass off, #110 rush def, #27 pass efficiency def, +6 TO margin, 5.4 ypp on offense, 5.8 ypp on defense, and 20 defensive sacks.
UNT's the better 'on paper' team in every way except passing offense. fwiw, my PR #s made UNT a 6 pt favorite...but that's not giving them anything for HFA, which they should get something for due to the location/lack of distance. anyways, what i hate statistically about this match-up for UNLV is twofold. first, they allow .8 ypp more than UNT does defensively. and two, #110 in rushing defense...with a POS strength of schedule...is absurd. on top of that, speaking of defenses, UNT is 6th in the nation when it comes to red zone defense.
as for motivation, both teams will/should be up. UNLV hasn't bowled since 2000, and UNT hasn't bowled since 2004. so when it comes to a rare bowl appearance for both these teams, i had to back simply the better (more balanced) team on paper.
kinda shocking to have a these kinda teams playing on January 1st, huh?
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
third this...
Outback Bowl, 1/1
Iowa (+8) @ -105 for .6
LSU stats = #55 SOS, #31 rush off, #34 pass off, #43 rush def, #36 pass efficiency def, -2 TO margin, 6.7 ypp on offense, 5.2 ypp on defense, and 24 defensive sacks.
Iowa stats = #33 SOS, #43 rush off, #92 pass off, #17 rush def, #25 pass efficiency def, +1 TO margin, 5.3 ypp on offense, 4.6 ypp on defense, and 20 defensive sacks.
at least Iowa has the SOS advantage, lol. (i'm being sarcastic, btw.) fwiw, my PR#s made LSU a 9 pt favorite in this one. so why am i going against that?
bottom line...Iowa's got the better statistical defense in this match-up...and even though LSU is much better (and balanced) offensively, i'm not sure that'll still be the case (or as much of the case) w/out Mettenberger at QB. Jennings only has 10 pass attempts this year, and i can't assume that he'll keep that offense going at their normal production level. in fact, i'm guessing that he won't...that the LSU offense will not be as balanced (more run heavy, which Iowa can defend), and that he will make mistakes. sure hope that's the case, as Iowa's offense is just painful/pathetic at times.
anyhow, there's also a bit of recent bowl history on the Iowa side...as Iowa is 4-2 vs the SEC in bowls, and 3-1 in the Outback. Miles is 5-3 bowling @ LSU, but has lost 3 of his last 4...where Ferentz is 6-4 bowling at Iowa, and has won 3 of his last 4.
but in any case, this play relies on two things. first, that Jennings as the QB will hurt (or limit) LSU's offense compared to their typical production...and second, that Iowa's defense will play like beasts tomorrow.
Outback Bowl, 1/1
Iowa (+8) @ -105 for .6
LSU stats = #55 SOS, #31 rush off, #34 pass off, #43 rush def, #36 pass efficiency def, -2 TO margin, 6.7 ypp on offense, 5.2 ypp on defense, and 24 defensive sacks.
Iowa stats = #33 SOS, #43 rush off, #92 pass off, #17 rush def, #25 pass efficiency def, +1 TO margin, 5.3 ypp on offense, 4.6 ypp on defense, and 20 defensive sacks.
at least Iowa has the SOS advantage, lol. (i'm being sarcastic, btw.) fwiw, my PR#s made LSU a 9 pt favorite in this one. so why am i going against that?
bottom line...Iowa's got the better statistical defense in this match-up...and even though LSU is much better (and balanced) offensively, i'm not sure that'll still be the case (or as much of the case) w/out Mettenberger at QB. Jennings only has 10 pass attempts this year, and i can't assume that he'll keep that offense going at their normal production level. in fact, i'm guessing that he won't...that the LSU offense will not be as balanced (more run heavy, which Iowa can defend), and that he will make mistakes. sure hope that's the case, as Iowa's offense is just painful/pathetic at times.
anyhow, there's also a bit of recent bowl history on the Iowa side...as Iowa is 4-2 vs the SEC in bowls, and 3-1 in the Outback. Miles is 5-3 bowling @ LSU, but has lost 3 of his last 4...where Ferentz is 6-4 bowling at Iowa, and has won 3 of his last 4.
but in any case, this play relies on two things. first, that Jennings as the QB will hurt (or limit) LSU's offense compared to their typical production...and second, that Iowa's defense will play like beasts tomorrow.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
that's 3 of 6 written up... :thumbsup2:
almost 4am, and i've lost any remnants of my buzz...so excuse any bad typing &/or fuck ups on my part.
(it's not easy going against the SEC, smh)
almost 4am, and i've lost any remnants of my buzz...so excuse any bad typing &/or fuck ups on my part.
(it's not easy going against the SEC, smh)
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
fourth this...
Capital One Bowl, 1/1
Wisconsin (-2) @ -105 for .6
uSC stats = #37 SOS, #27 rush off, #48 pass off, #34 rush def, #49 pass efficiency def, +11 TO margin, 5.9 ypp on offense, 5.3 ypp on defense, and 24 defensive sacks.
Wisky stats = #61 SOS, #8 rush off, #88 pass off, #5 rush def, #6 pass efficiency def, +3 TO margin, 6.7 ypp on offense, 4.6 ypp on defense, and 25 defensive sacks.
not the huge disparity in SOS, but still relevant. that said...wisky's the better rushing offense, and the better all-around defense...giving up .7 less ypp than uSC. their passing offense, like iowa, is a concern...just poor...so they can't fall behind. gotta rely on pounding the rock, and solid defense. hopefully that'll be enough here. and fwiw, my PR #s made this a pick. one thing i do like is that Byrd is out for uSC.
anyhow, recent bowl history isn't bright for the wisky side. the ole ball coach is basically .500 bowling, all time, but has won his last two. wisconsin has lost 3 straight Rose Bowls, and so hasn't won a bowl since 2009. but this is Anderson's 1st bowl as a Badger, so hopefully he can change things.
Capital One Bowl, 1/1
Wisconsin (-2) @ -105 for .6
uSC stats = #37 SOS, #27 rush off, #48 pass off, #34 rush def, #49 pass efficiency def, +11 TO margin, 5.9 ypp on offense, 5.3 ypp on defense, and 24 defensive sacks.
Wisky stats = #61 SOS, #8 rush off, #88 pass off, #5 rush def, #6 pass efficiency def, +3 TO margin, 6.7 ypp on offense, 4.6 ypp on defense, and 25 defensive sacks.
not the huge disparity in SOS, but still relevant. that said...wisky's the better rushing offense, and the better all-around defense...giving up .7 less ypp than uSC. their passing offense, like iowa, is a concern...just poor...so they can't fall behind. gotta rely on pounding the rock, and solid defense. hopefully that'll be enough here. and fwiw, my PR #s made this a pick. one thing i do like is that Byrd is out for uSC.
anyhow, recent bowl history isn't bright for the wisky side. the ole ball coach is basically .500 bowling, all time, but has won his last two. wisconsin has lost 3 straight Rose Bowls, and so hasn't won a bowl since 2009. but this is Anderson's 1st bowl as a Badger, so hopefully he can change things.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
thanks, man. oh well, i'll sleep during the early football games.
i'm a night owl...but also superstitious, in that i kinda have to do the write-ups lol.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
fifth this...
Rose Bowl, 1/1
Stanford (-6) @ -120 for 3/4
(yay...here's where we get SOS back on our side, lol. already mentioned my opinion on where the line is set. but remember my USC prop, where i raved about Agholor? well, the most talented/raw athlete on the field in this game will be Montgomery...hands down. just watch those special teams too.)
MSU stats = #86 SOS, #51 rush off, #89 pass off, #2 rush def, #2 pass efficiency def, +14 TO margin, 5.2 ypp on offense, 3.8 ypp on defense, and 31 defensive sacks.
Stanford stats = #12 SOS, #22 rush off, #90 pass off, #3 rush def, #47 pass efficiency def, -1 TO margin, 6.3 ypp on offense, 4.6 ypp on defense, and 40 defensive sacks.
both teams don't have good passing games, but i'll take Hogan 5 days a week over the MSU QB. (the other 2 days, due to turnovers, i won't.) but seriously...i don't like the difference in TO margins between these teams, but that's about it. both teams will play very solid defense. i just like Stanford's running game/offense better...especially with MSU missing Bullough, and the tackles he piles up per game.
w/out a substantial passing attack by MSU though, these defenses are very comparable. however, stanford gains 1.1 more ypp than michigan st does...and that's against a much more difficult schedule. anyhow, my PR #s made Stanford a 6.5 pt favorite...and short of Hogan turning the ball over too much, i simply believe they cover that number...and win the majority of the battles in the trenches. that's just what they do in big games.
as for recent bowl history...and since this is the 100th Rose Bowl...let's also look at that aspect of things. MSU hasn't been to the Rose Bowl in 26 years. Conversely, Stanford has been to 4 straight BCS bowls. Dantonio is 2-4 bowling at MSU, and MSU has lost 4 of it's last 5 bowls. Conversely, Shaw is 1-1 bowling at Stanford, and beat Wisky in the Rose Bowl last year...by 6 points.
imho, the Pac-12's bowl season gets even better manana. :shake:
Rose Bowl, 1/1
Stanford (-6) @ -120 for 3/4
(yay...here's where we get SOS back on our side, lol. already mentioned my opinion on where the line is set. but remember my USC prop, where i raved about Agholor? well, the most talented/raw athlete on the field in this game will be Montgomery...hands down. just watch those special teams too.)
MSU stats = #86 SOS, #51 rush off, #89 pass off, #2 rush def, #2 pass efficiency def, +14 TO margin, 5.2 ypp on offense, 3.8 ypp on defense, and 31 defensive sacks.
Stanford stats = #12 SOS, #22 rush off, #90 pass off, #3 rush def, #47 pass efficiency def, -1 TO margin, 6.3 ypp on offense, 4.6 ypp on defense, and 40 defensive sacks.
both teams don't have good passing games, but i'll take Hogan 5 days a week over the MSU QB. (the other 2 days, due to turnovers, i won't.) but seriously...i don't like the difference in TO margins between these teams, but that's about it. both teams will play very solid defense. i just like Stanford's running game/offense better...especially with MSU missing Bullough, and the tackles he piles up per game.
w/out a substantial passing attack by MSU though, these defenses are very comparable. however, stanford gains 1.1 more ypp than michigan st does...and that's against a much more difficult schedule. anyhow, my PR #s made Stanford a 6.5 pt favorite...and short of Hogan turning the ball over too much, i simply believe they cover that number...and win the majority of the battles in the trenches. that's just what they do in big games.
as for recent bowl history...and since this is the 100th Rose Bowl...let's also look at that aspect of things. MSU hasn't been to the Rose Bowl in 26 years. Conversely, Stanford has been to 4 straight BCS bowls. Dantonio is 2-4 bowling at MSU, and MSU has lost 4 of it's last 5 bowls. Conversely, Shaw is 1-1 bowling at Stanford, and beat Wisky in the Rose Bowl last year...by 6 points.
imho, the Pac-12's bowl season gets even better manana. :shake:
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
last, but not least...sixth this...
Fiesta Bowl, 1/1
Baylor(-9.5) to UCF/Baylor ov63 for .90 to win 3/4
(wasn't ready to lay 16.5 pts, but wanted baylor here...so another teaser, along the lines of last night's.)
Baylor stats = #66 SOS, #12 rush off, #5 pass off, #25 rush def, #8 pass efficiency def, +11 TO margin, 7.3 ypp on offense, 4.5 ypp on defense, and 32 defensive sacks.
UCF stats = #104 SOS, #79 rush off, #26 pass off, #13 rush def, #18 pass efficiency def, +7 TO margin, 6.3 ypp on offense, 5.1 ypp on defense, and 27 defensive sacks.
on paper, everything is on Baylor's side except rushing defense. and considering running the ball isn't a UCF strong suit, it's not a concern here. fwiw, my PR #s made Baylor a 15.5 pt favorite in this match-up. some big disparities though, besides (yet connected too) SOS. Baylor gets 1 more ypp than UCF offensively, and allows .6 less ypp on defense than UCF.
anyhow, both teams come in with only 1 loss. both teams are in their 1st ever BCS bowl game, coming off the best seasons in their respective histories. bottom line though, Baylor's had time to get healthy...where even Reese is expected back. UCF is 0-5 vs the Big 12, and it just seems to me like Baylor will outclass them...and pull away with their speed/talent.
that said, Petty vs Bortles is a great QB match-up. i'm concerned (for the over) that Bortles has been sacked 14 times in his last 5 games. but having watched 3 Baylor games in november, i still see UCF getting a fair amount of points via their passing game...again, in terms of aiding the over...but possibly in terms of a potential backdoor cover as well...thus the teaser, just in case.
lastly, in terms of recent bowl history...Briles is 2-1 bowling at Baylor, beating up the Pac-12 the last two years. they threw up a ton of points on my Bruins LY...and even more vs Washington the year before...so that weighs heavily on my decision/play as well. on the flip side, O'Leary is 2-3 bowling at UCF, winning the last two...but UCF is also 2-3 in their last five bowls. but again, UCF is stepping up in class here...and tbh, i think a 14 to 17 pt Baylor win sounds just right.
Fiesta Bowl, 1/1
Baylor(-9.5) to UCF/Baylor ov63 for .90 to win 3/4
(wasn't ready to lay 16.5 pts, but wanted baylor here...so another teaser, along the lines of last night's.)
Baylor stats = #66 SOS, #12 rush off, #5 pass off, #25 rush def, #8 pass efficiency def, +11 TO margin, 7.3 ypp on offense, 4.5 ypp on defense, and 32 defensive sacks.
UCF stats = #104 SOS, #79 rush off, #26 pass off, #13 rush def, #18 pass efficiency def, +7 TO margin, 6.3 ypp on offense, 5.1 ypp on defense, and 27 defensive sacks.
on paper, everything is on Baylor's side except rushing defense. and considering running the ball isn't a UCF strong suit, it's not a concern here. fwiw, my PR #s made Baylor a 15.5 pt favorite in this match-up. some big disparities though, besides (yet connected too) SOS. Baylor gets 1 more ypp than UCF offensively, and allows .6 less ypp on defense than UCF.
anyhow, both teams come in with only 1 loss. both teams are in their 1st ever BCS bowl game, coming off the best seasons in their respective histories. bottom line though, Baylor's had time to get healthy...where even Reese is expected back. UCF is 0-5 vs the Big 12, and it just seems to me like Baylor will outclass them...and pull away with their speed/talent.
that said, Petty vs Bortles is a great QB match-up. i'm concerned (for the over) that Bortles has been sacked 14 times in his last 5 games. but having watched 3 Baylor games in november, i still see UCF getting a fair amount of points via their passing game...again, in terms of aiding the over...but possibly in terms of a potential backdoor cover as well...thus the teaser, just in case.
lastly, in terms of recent bowl history...Briles is 2-1 bowling at Baylor, beating up the Pac-12 the last two years. they threw up a ton of points on my Bruins LY...and even more vs Washington the year before...so that weighs heavily on my decision/play as well. on the flip side, O'Leary is 2-3 bowling at UCF, winning the last two...but UCF is also 2-3 in their last five bowls. but again, UCF is stepping up in class here...and tbh, i think a 14 to 17 pt Baylor win sounds just right.
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
You're an animal.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
and done...small write-ups for every game/play. :thumbsup2:
5am, and ready for bed now.
5am, and ready for bed now.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
btw...kinda sad that after today, there are only 6 more bowls...then the college football season is over. 
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
definitely crazy. never been one to spend the time like that.
anyhow, good morning. :shake:
Silkydiamonds
Imma sip this tea
It's almost unnatural I haven't been in yet. But forgive my tardiness & keep kicking ass bro!
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
never been so glad/fortunate to be 3-1 after the early games. so much of the Big 10 is just painful to watch, let alone wager on, lol.
anyhow, smh...somehow the Big 10 went 2-1 ATS vs the SEC, and won 1 SU. flirted with danger, but escaped almost unscathed.
:shocked:
anyhow, smh...somehow the Big 10 went 2-1 ATS vs the SEC, and won 1 SU. flirted with danger, but escaped almost unscathed.
:shocked:
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
thank you...and, agreed. :shake:
thanks...and no worries, silk. just talkin' to myself over here.
happy new yr, bro. :shake:
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
well, that sure went sideways late. baylor just sucked defensively. nothing to do there but chalk up the loss and move on to tomorrow.
gotta give props to MSU though. they were beaten the 1st Q...then there's a dropped INT...they said thank you very much, and they never looked back. totally out-coached and out-played Stanford in the 2nd half. kicked their ass, tbh.
still a good bowl season for the Pac-12, going 6-3 SU & ATS...but it's bookends are two disappointing losses, highlighted by not the best coaching.
anyhow, ended up 3-3 in the 1/1 bowls, so sitting at 20-11-1 bowling to date, up 3.77 units.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
i typically use 'Sugar in the Raw' for my coffee/etc.
line is too high, so ended up with another teaser. will post in a minute.
B
bamabradley2424
Guest
i typically use 'Sugar in the Raw' for my coffee/etc.
line is too high, so ended up with another teaser. will post in a minute.
Bama rolls Yanks. AJ's last game, trust me on this.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
two more additions...
Sugar Bowl, 1/2
Bama(-9.5) to Oklahoma/Bama ov44.5 for .90 to win 3/4
BCS Champ Game, 1/6
FSU(-1.5) to Auburn/FSU ov60.5 for .90 to win 3/4
i know, two more of these teasers. didn't work with Baylor, obviously...but no way i can back the Sooners here, even with the line this high. gotta believe Alabama takes out those Iron Bowl frustrations on Oklahoma, a team that got beat by Texas, knowing that they should be in the BCS NC game.
in any case, gotta be up early manana...so no write-ups for these two bowls. however, the reason i jumped ahead to the NC game was because i was concerned the total would rise. these last 2 nights had some huge final scores...and considering the teams involved, can only see the over getting bumped up as we get closer.
anyhow, this is it for the Sugar Bowl with the line at 17 pts. but i should have another play in the NC game to go along with that teaser. and, of course, i'll be adding the remaining four bowls over the next few days.
:cheers:
Sugar Bowl, 1/2
Bama(-9.5) to Oklahoma/Bama ov44.5 for .90 to win 3/4
BCS Champ Game, 1/6
FSU(-1.5) to Auburn/FSU ov60.5 for .90 to win 3/4
i know, two more of these teasers. didn't work with Baylor, obviously...but no way i can back the Sooners here, even with the line this high. gotta believe Alabama takes out those Iron Bowl frustrations on Oklahoma, a team that got beat by Texas, knowing that they should be in the BCS NC game.
in any case, gotta be up early manana...so no write-ups for these two bowls. however, the reason i jumped ahead to the NC game was because i was concerned the total would rise. these last 2 nights had some huge final scores...and considering the teams involved, can only see the over getting bumped up as we get closer.
anyhow, this is it for the Sugar Bowl with the line at 17 pts. but i should have another play in the NC game to go along with that teaser. and, of course, i'll be adding the remaining four bowls over the next few days.
:cheers:
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
i agree, bud. 16.5 or 17 pts is just a ton for me, so i teased it.
bama knows they're better than auburn. just hope they choose to prove it, at oklahoma's expense.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
i can almost excuse Baylor, since it was their 1st BCS bowl...but Bama should be embarrassed, as there's no excuse for that poor defensive performance.
i'm not talking ATS...i'm just talking about 17 pt favs losing by double digits in big time bowl games. shameful...
-----------------
as for me, damn, i'm in a 4 bowl losing streak...so 20-12-1 now.
be back in a minute with my plays for today.
i'm not talking ATS...i'm just talking about 17 pt favs losing by double digits in big time bowl games. shameful...
-----------------
as for me, damn, i'm in a 4 bowl losing streak...so 20-12-1 now.
be back in a minute with my plays for today.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
additions for today...
Cotton Bowl, 1/3
Oklahoma St (-2.5) @ -105 for .8
Orange Bowl, 1/3
B. Miller rushing yards over 105.5 @ +100 for 1/2
T. Boyd TD passes + INT's over 3.5 @ +115 for 1/2
will come back in a few with short write-ups on these additions for today.
Cotton Bowl, 1/3
Oklahoma St (-2.5) @ -105 for .8
Orange Bowl, 1/3
B. Miller rushing yards over 105.5 @ +100 for 1/2
T. Boyd TD passes + INT's over 3.5 @ +115 for 1/2
will come back in a few with short write-ups on these additions for today.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
my PR #s made Okie Lite a 3.5 favorite here. lost a ton of line value early...waited for it to come back...but it got even worse...so wish i would've played this one at the open.
Mizzou stats = #22 SOS, #16 rush off, #39 pass off, #49 rush def, #44 pass eff def, +16 TO margin, 6.4 ypp on offense, and 5.3 ypp on defense.
Okie Lite stats = #58 SOS, #63 rush off, #29 pass off, #23 rush def, #7 pass eff def, +15 TO margin, 5.9 ypp on offense, and 4.8 ypp on defense.
so Mizzou averages .5 more yyp offensively, but Okie Lite averages .5 less ypp defensively. Mizzou's got the better running game, where Okie Lite has advantages in the other statistical categories.
as for bowl history...Pinkel's 4-4 @ Mizzou. they missed 2012, but are 3-2 in their L5. conversely, Gundy's 5-2 bowling...and Okie Lite's won their L3.
should be a great game. had to follow the reverse line movement though...as you'll see on page one, when discussing things with Tru, i had planned on Okie Lite all along. las vegas opener had Mizzou as a 3 or 3.5 pt fav. that's obviously been corrected over time, even with the percentages heavily on the Tigers.
ohio st/clemson is a coin flip. couldn't decide on a side...and felt the # on the over had gotten away from me/where it opened...so i went with props here instead. played both an hour or two ago...and see that the juice as moved on the Miller prop, but it is what it is...which isn't my problem, since i was in front of it.
anyhow, ohio st runs the ball (#3 in rush off)...where clemson has struggles at times vs the run (#50 in rush def). can't trust miller to be effective throwing (#89 pass off) vs the Tigers (the #14 pass eff def)...but with an offense that gets 7.1 ypp, i like my chances on the ground. miller's rushing totals for the last 4 games...184, 144, 153, and 142. and that last one was obviously against Michigan St.
clemson throws that ball (#11 pass off)...where Ohio St has been poor vs the pass (#73 pass eff def). sure, ohio st has been stout on run defense...but since the Tigers are only the #60 rush off, that wasn't my concern. anyhow, in 3 of Ohio St's last 4 games...Cook went 3 & 1, Gardner went 4 & 0, and Scheelhaase went 2 & 2. Even Rudock for Iowa went 3 TDs + 1 INT vs Ohio St.
fwiw, my PR #s made Ohio St a 2 pt fav. i love Urban's 7-1 bowl record...but that wasn't at Ohio St, or with a defense that gets torched thru the air at times like the Buckeyes do. anyhow, that's why i settled on these 2 props in what i feel is the total coin flip game.
:cheers:
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
2 great games tonight, despite more poor officiating, but only 1-2 on the plays.
it's a shame. okie lite was the "right side" in damn near a coin flip game. folks that had Mizzou will feel differently, i'm sure. is what it is though...luck, or lack thereof.
anyhow, the real shame (beyond any plays) was having both these games on at the same time. at worse, they should've overlapped a quarter. damn competing networks...
-----------
gonna add the other 2 games later tonight, then be done with the bowls...short of one more prop for the NC game. losing interest (as always) while these bs bowls fill the gap to the national championship. it's not their fault...it's just bad timing/planning, every year.
it's a shame. okie lite was the "right side" in damn near a coin flip game. folks that had Mizzou will feel differently, i'm sure. is what it is though...luck, or lack thereof.
anyhow, the real shame (beyond any plays) was having both these games on at the same time. at worse, they should've overlapped a quarter. damn competing networks...
-----------
gonna add the other 2 games later tonight, then be done with the bowls...short of one more prop for the NC game. losing interest (as always) while these bs bowls fill the gap to the national championship. it's not their fault...it's just bad timing/planning, every year.
